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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

Optimization and simulation of a grid-connected PV

system using load forecasting methods: A case study
of a university building
Juan Glicerio C. Manlapaz, Dalisay M. Reyes, Cris Paulo L.
Buensuceso, Robert Alfie S. Peña, Raymark C. Parocha, and
Erees Queen B. Macabebe
Ateneo Energy Research Lab, Department of Electronics, Computer, and Communications
Engineering, School of Science and Engineering, Ateneo de Manila University, 1108 Quezon
City, Philippines
E-mail: emacabebe@ateneo.edu

Abstract. Distributed generation represents a paradigm shift from the traditional electric grid
to localized generation of electric power along with the capability of incorporating renewable
energy (RE) sources into the energy mix. Responding to the need for sufficient analysis,
simulation, and study of feasibility of distributed generation, this study aims to design a
hybrid energy system for a university building and analyze its economic benefits. The viability
of existing load forecasting methodologies for energy systems is also presented in this paper.
The energy system design was determined through predictive modeling of the load profile of
the building using historical data and optimization using machine learning methods, namely
auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and long short-term memory (LSTM).
Simulations were run in HOMER Pro. Results show that a grid-connected solar photovoltaic
(PV) system installed on the roof coupled with an energy storage system (ESS) will provide
the most economic benefits because it yields a reduced cost of energy (COE) per kilowatt-hour
(kWh) for the building. This study shows that in line with efforts to transition towards clean
energy, hybrid energy systems using RE not only have economic benefits, but can also ensure
energy security and environmental sustainability.

Keywords: Distributed generation, energy systems modeling, ARIMA, LSTM, load

forecasting, renewable energy technologies, cost of energy

1. Introduction
With affordable and clean energy being part of the United Nations’ sustainable development
goals, countries seek to increase renewable energy (RE) generation in their energy mix by 2030
[1]. Distributed energy is a growing segment of the energy industry, representing a paradigm
shift from remote central power plants toward more localized energy generation—especially in
cities, communities, and campuses. Integrating renewable energy sources in the form of solar
photovoltaic (PV) systems is seen as a possible and economic solution to tackle the issues related
to climate change. System sizing and modeling can be done using historical load profiles. In the
event of unavailability of real-time data or the inability of measuring actual energy consumption,

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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

Table 1. Comparison of performance indices for all STLF methods [3].

STLF Method
Performance Index
ARIMAX NNs WNNs
MAE (kW) 0.18 0.21 0.13
ME (kW) 4.72 3.56 2.78
R (%) 65.0 62.0 79.0

it is possible to simulate the desired load profile by using historical data through predictive
modeling [2].
This paper aims to simulate a grid-tied PV system in a university building using HOMER
Pro, a software capable of performing techno-economic and sensitivity analyses to determine the
most optimal distributed generation system and component sizing based on the historical power
consumption and the predictive models resulting from the historical data of the building. In this
study, predictive modeling was developed using two load forecasting methods: auto-regressive
integrated moving average (ARIMA) and long short-term memory (LSTM). Historical data was
used to determine the load profile that served as the basis of the HOMER Pro simulation. This
study can provide insights that contribute towards the goal of clean and affordable energy, as
institutions such as universities transition into greener energy systems.

2. Literature review
2.1. Short-term load forecasting methods for microgrid systems
Different forecasting methodologies exist beyond that of surveying to estimate the load profile
used for microgrid applications. Electric load forecasting (ELF) in particular serves as an
important tool for planning, control, and operation of power systems. Most ELF methods
are used for transmission systems, while some are utilized for distribution systems. Marzooghi
et al. used load forecasting for microgrids to compare the performance of three well-known
short-term load forecasting (STLF) methods, namely seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving
average with exogenous variables (seasonal ARIMAX), neural networks (NN), and wavelet neural
networks (WNN) [2]. STLF methods were used because they are designed to predict the load
one week ahead thereby becoming a significant tool for day-to-day operations of power systems.
The study used a four-year historical data set obtained using gross metering, which
independently recorded the load demand and solar generation of select premises in an electricity
network area. Mean absolute error (MAE), maximum error (ME), and regression (R) between
actual load values and predicted outputs were used to gauge which method has the better
predictive ability. Results shown in Table 1 indicate that the WNNs-based model had the
highest accuracy for STLF. Meanwhile, seasonal ARIMAX and NNs have shortcomings in terms
of predicting load trends in microgrid applications since they failed to appraise the behavior of
interlaced high- and low-frequency loads.

2.2. Microgrids on university campuses

Integrating RE sources in the form of solar PV systems is one possible and economic solution
that can help tackle the issue of climate change. Sharma and Kaur utilized HOMER to simulate
a solar PV system designed for a university [3]. The study utilized the monthly average solar
radiation and clearness index, daily load profile, and the seasonal load profile of the area. The
proposed HOMER model consists of the electrical load that contained a daily load in kWh/day
and the peak monthly load in kW, a 1-kW solar PV panel, a battery (6 V, 912 Ah) with 81%
efficiency, and a DC-AC converter (125 kW, 700 V). In the software, all of these components were

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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

Figure 1. Flowchart for ARIMA. Figure 2. Flowchart for LSTM.

combined and subjected to constraints such as minimum renewable fraction, operating reserve,
wind, and solar renewable output. These combinations include grid only, PV-grid combination
with battery, and PV-grid combination without battery. HOMER Pro can determine which
setup produced the least COE through optimization and sensitivity analyses. Results show that
the PV-grid combination without battery setup yielded the least cost of energy, indicating that
the installation of PV panels are economically beneficial.

3. Methodology
3.1. Predictive modeling
The predictive models for both ARIMA and LSTM were developed using a raw data set
containing monthly energy consumption of the university building in kWh from the years 2016
to 2019. Fig. 1 shows the flowchart of the development ARIMA model. In this model, the data
set was preprocessed such that the first 36 months were allotted for the training data set while
the remaining 12 months were assigned to the testing data set. To make sure that the data
set acted independently from the typical seasonal behavior observed in annual energy use, the
stationarity of the data set was checked. If the data set is not stationary, that means that it
is still under the influence of seasonal behavior and thus it was transformed into a stationary
data set using differencing. Once the data set is stationary, the best ARIMA parameters were
identified using the grid searching method which determines the best values that the ARIMA
model can output based on the input data set. The resulting ARIMA model obtained through
the grid searching method were evaluated using performance metrics such as root mean square
method (RMSE) to determine the best ARIMA model to predict the year-long load profile of
the university building.
Utilizing the Keras library [5], the LSTM model on the other hand was developed by first

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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

Table 2. Performance indicators used in comparing the accuracy of LSTM and ARIMA.
Performance
Meaning Equation Where
indicator
n = number of samples
Root mean
q P
1 n 2
RMSE n (f
i=0 i − o i ) fi = forecast values
squared error
oi = actual values
n = number of times the
Mean absolute 1 P n At −Ft summation iteration happens
MAPE n t=1 At
percentage error At = actual values
Ft = forecast values
RSS = Sum of squares
Coefficient of
R2 1 − RSS
T SS of residuals
determination
T SS = total sum of squares

normalizing the same raw data set used in the development of the ARIMA model, resulting in
a data set with values ranging from zero to one. Similar to the ARIMA model, the data set was
again preprocessed such that the first 36 months were allotted for the training data set while the
12 remaining months were assigned to the testing data set. It is important to normalize the data
set since LSTMs are sensitive to the scale of the input data such as in cases where the LSTM
uses either the sigmoid or tanh activation function [6]. Since LSTM is a variant of recurrent
neural networks, the LSTM weights were initialized and subsequently used in the training of the
neural network. A notable hyperparameter in developing the LSTM model is the the number
of epochs. This refers to the number of iterations that the LSTM model carries out and the
entire training data set is being processed per iteration [7]. The number of epochs was set to 50,
100, 300, 500, and 1,000, respectively, to determine which LSTM model has the best fit to the
testing data set. Once training the data was completed, results were denormalized, producing
an LSTM model that predicted a year-long load profile of the university building. Fig. 2 shows
the flowchart of the development of the LSTM model.
After the models were obtained, the root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute
percentage error (MAPE), and the coefficient of determination (R2 ) were used to identify the
most appropriate model among the LSTM and ARIMA models to be used for the microgrid
simulation. The RMSE defines how far the predicted values are from the actual values on
average. The MAPE represents the prediction accuracy as a ratio of the forecasting method
[6]. Lastly, R2 describes how well the actual data is replicated by the model according to the
proportion of total variation of results from the model [8]. The equations for all three metrics
are shown in Table 2.

3.2. Site overview and system modeling using HOMER Pro

The grid-tied system to be implemented at the university was designed in consideration of factors
such as geographical location, daily solar irradiation, and the clearness index of the area. Table 3
shows the location and load demand of the university building. Fig. 3 shows the roof area of
the building for the PV system.
The university building is located at 14°43’48”N, 121°10’0”E in the National Capital Region
(NCR) of the Philippines. A commissioned study done by the National Renewable Energy
Laboratory (NREL) of the US Department of Energy showed that NCR has one of the lowest
wind power potentials in the country [9]. As such, the only feasible renewable energy source that
can be implemented is solar PV modules. To further support the need of solar PVs, Fig. 4 shows

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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

the monthly average solar global horizontal irradiance (GHI) data of the university building. The
data was imported from an NREL database found in HOMER Pro.

Table 3. University building information.

Location 14°43’48”N, 121°10’0”E
Average load 1,982.1 kWh/day
Peak demand 396.72 kW

Figure 3. Aerial view of the university building [10].

Figure 4. Solar GHI data at the location of the university building (source: NREL, HOMER
Pro).

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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

Figure 6. The designed

grid-tied PV system (source:
Figure 5. Daily load profile of the university building. HOMER Pro simulation).

Table 4. System components and their respective prices.

Component Unit price in PHP*
650-Wp solar PV module 15,000
8-kW inverter 120,000
10-kWh LiPO4 batteries 175,000
*USD 1 = PHP 52

3.3. Load demand profile of the university building

The demand profile of the building has two types of granularities: the monthly load profile and
the daily load profile. Both types are needed in the HOMER simulation. The monthly load
profile was computed from the predictive modeling process. The daily load profile, on the other
hand, was obtained by taking the energy audit of the entire building. This was done by either
sending out energy audit forms to all offices and laboratories inside the building or by manual
inspection of the room itself. Fig. 5 shows the daily load profile that served as input to the
HOMER software via the electric load component.

3.4. Grid-tied system model in HOMER Pro

Considering all the information associated with the building, a grid-tied PV system was designed.
The design of the system entailed the following: the electric load representing the building; the
grid representing the local electric utility entity to which the university pays the electric bill;
solar PV modules; the battery or energy storage system; and the converter or inverter. Fig. 6
illustrates the system through a schematic and Table 4 shows the price of each component based
on the built-in price list.
Table 5 shows the search space that was used in the sensitivity analysis in HOMER Pro. It
shows the possible capacities for each component in the system.

3.5. HOMER Pro simulation objectives

Once the data was collected and the assumptions were set, the simulation was run in HOMER
Pro. The main objective of the simulation was to determine the most economically sound
solution that will give the grid-tied PV system the specifications list that should be installed for
the university building. Along with that, the simulation also aimed to determine if behavior in
terms of power consumption should change in order to achieve the goal of providing renewable

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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

Table 5. HOMER Pro search space.

Quantity Possible values for search space
PV capital cost multiplier 0.6; 0.7; 0.8; 0.9; 1.0
Inverter capacity (kW) 100; 200; 300
Grid capacity (kW) 999,999
PV size (kW) 100; 150
Battery string size 0; 20; 40
Battery minimum
5; 10
lifetime (years)
Scaled average daily
power consumption 2,426.448; 2,898.488; 3,370.528
(kWh/day)

Table 6. Performance indicators of LSTM and ARIMA.

Performance
LSTM ARIMA
indicator
RMSE (kWh) 4,373.26 8,754.51
MAPE (%) 8.00 18.95
R2 0.8736 0.4933

energy while simultaneously taking economics into account. An ”ideal” grid-tied PV system
should be able to satisfy the following benchmarks:
• The levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is less than the commercial grid rates provided by
MERALCO, the local electric power distributor. This benchmark was utilized in the study
of Sharma and Kaur [2]. LCOE shows the monthly cost of energy if PV and other renewable
energy sources are installed. The latter will provide useful electrical energy on top of what
the university building would receive from the main utility grid.
• The system yielded the lowest total net present cost (NPC). The NPC of a system is the
present value of all the costs the system incurs over its lifetime, minus the present value
of all the revenue it earns over its lifetime. Costs include capital costs, replacement costs,
operations and maintenance (O&M) costs, fuel costs, emissions penalties, and the costs of
buying power from the grid [11]. Revenues include salvage value and grid sales revenue.
HOMER Pro calculates the total NPC by summing the total discounted cash flows in each
year of the project lifetime. The NPC can be used to compute the annual cost of the entire
grid-tied PV system. This is done by dividing the NPC by the number of years of the
project, which is twenty-five years.

4. Results and discussion

4.1. Results from the predictive modeling algorithms
Comparing the performance of the two predictive modeling algorithms that were used in the
study, it was shown that the LSTM model achieved higher accuracy than the ARIMA model
based on the forecasting metrics. Table 6 lists the resulting forecasting metrics of the two
models. Fig. 7 shows the graph comparing the actual and predicted load values generated by
the ARIMA and LSTM models.

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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

Figure 7. The actual load versus the predicted load using the ARIMA and LSTM models.

Figure 8. Cost of energy from the HOMER Pro simulation of the solar PV and battery system.

4.2. Results from the HOMER Pro simulations

Using the results from the predictive load model, the HOMER Pro simulation showed that a
grid-connected solar photovoltaic system installed on the roof of the building with an energy
storage system yielded the most economic benefits as the system can reduce the cost of energy
by approximately 10.96% based on the average monthly rate in 2017. The said system consists
of solar PV modules with a total capacity of 150 kW, a 100-kW converter, and a 36,800-Ah
battery system arranged in an array of 40 strings. When compared with the historical cost of
energy from the utility grid [12], HOMER Pro simulation results show that the installation of a
solar PV system will yield lower costs of energy, as seen in Fig. 8.

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2nd ASEAN International Conference on Energy and Environment IOP Publishing
IOP Conf. Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1199 (2023) 012006 doi:10.1088/1755-1315/1199/1/012006

5. Conclusion
Machine learning can be used to model the energy consumption of a building using historical
monthly consumption data. Two predictive models, namely ARIMA and LSTM, were used
in this study. The LSTM model achieved higher accuracy than the ARIMA model. The
combination of solar PV and energy storage system resulting from the HOMER Pro simulations
is the optimum energy system for the university building because the predicted cost of energy
is reduced by 10.96% based on the average monthly electricity rate. The proposed distributed
generation system utilizes renewable energy and storage. It is therefore environmentally friendly
and it can provide a certain level of autonomy from the utility grid.

6. Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank the School of Science and Engineering (SOSE) Sanggunian
Academic Subsidy (SAS) and the University Research Council (URC) of the Ateneo de Manila
University for their support of this study.

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