L3 - Linear Regression SAS

Linear Regression Models
Copyr ig ht © SAS Institute Inc . All r ig hts re s e r ve d.

What Is SAS Visual Statistics?
With the SAS Visual Statistics add-on, you can use SAS Visual Analytics
to rapidly build and modify predictive models.
• Use SAS Visual Analytics to prepare and explore data.

• Use predictive and exploratory modeling techniques.
• linear and logistic regression analyses
• generalized linear and additive models
• decision trees
• clustering
2 SAS Visual Statistics Objects

Objectives
• Create a linear regression model in SAS Visual Statistics.
• Implement predictor variable selection for a linear regression model.
• Apply filters.
• Create interaction variables.
• Assess model goodness of fit using generated statistics and diagnostic
plots.
3
Regression Models
• Regression models enable you to predict the value of a response variable
(dependent variable) as a linear function of one or more effects
(independent or predictor variables)
• Example: determine trends in data…

• in health care, to study observational data and determine what factors put
people at risk for certain diseases
• in finance for risk assessment
• in economics for modeling inventory, labor supply and demand and developing
spending models.
4
Linear Regression
• Linear regression models assume that the relationship between the response variable and
the input variables is linear
Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + … + bkXk + e

response
error term
intercept parameter associated to predictor variable X1
• There is only one response variable: Y

• There must be a least one predictor variable X
5
Linear Regression
• Linear regression models assume that the relationship between the response variable and
the input variables is linear.
Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + … + bkXk + e
• Linear regression uses the least squares method to determine parameter estimates
• Model effects or explanatory variables can be one of the following effects:

• continuous (Continuous effects)
• categorical (Classification effects)
• interaction terms (Interaction effects) (e.g. X1X2)
6
Linear Regression: Least Squares Methods
Goal: Find the line

that fits the data as
close as possible
7
Linear Regression Roles
• Response – one measure

• Continuous effects – one or more measures
• Classification effects – one or more categories
• Interaction effects – one or more interaction effects
14
continued...
Linear Regression Options
• Linear Regression
• Informative missingness
- By default, observations with missing values are dropped
- If ticked, SAS models the missing values (indicator variable is
created to denote missing values)
• Variable selection method
- Forward, backward, stepwise
- Significance level at which the effects will remain in the model
• Number of bins
- Used in the assessment plot (Increasing the number of bins
increases the accuracy of the assessment at the expense of
computing time)
• Tolerance (for convergence)
15
Linear Regression Options
• Model Display
• Plot layout
• Statistic to show
• Use histogram
• Y axis
• Legend visibility
• Plot to show
16
Examining Predicted vs. Residual (“The Residual Plot”)
17
Residuals Plots: a Diagnostic Tool
18
Linear Regression Results
Summary Bar
Residual Plot
Fit Summary Assessment

19
Analyzing Linear Regression Results
Three panes appear under a summary bar. They can help you analyze
the results of the linear regression model.
• The Fit Summary window displays how significant the effect variables are
to the response variable.
• The Residual Plot window displays the relationship between the predicted and the
residual data.
• The Assessment window displays the values for the observed response
and the model’s predicted response.
• The Influence Plot* window displays the observations that might influence
the overall analysis.
• The Variable Selection Plot* window displays the change in value of the variable
selection statistic as effects are added or removed.
20
Summary Bar
For all models, general model information appears at the top of the canvas.
• model type
• name of response variable
• model evaluation criteria (selected from model toolbar or options)
• number of observations used to build the model
• number of observations not used
21
evaluation criteria choices for LR:
22
Fit Summary Window
• shows how significant the effects (predictor) variables are to the response variable
by displaying their relative importance as p-values.
• The vertical significance level

line plotted is -log(.05)
• The smaller the p-value, the

The significance level is
more significant the effect is .05 by default, but it is
moveable. Every variable
above the threshold is
significant
• If a variable is not significant,
we can remove it
> Keep the model simple!
23
Residual Plot
• The Residual Plot window displays the relationship between the predicted data and the
residual data using a scatter plot or a heat map
• used to access the quality of the

model and to identify outlier observations
• To change the statistic that is

plotted, right-click the plot
• To show or filter selected data,

right-click the plot
24
Assessment
• The Assessment window displays a plot of the values for the observed response
and the model’s predicted response
25
Influence Plot
After choosing a variable selection method…
1. Choose plot
2. Plot appears
26
Influence Plot
• The Influence Plot window displays the
observations that might influence
the overall analysis.
• To change the statistic that is
plotted, right-click the plot.
• To show or filter selected data,
right-click the plot.
• An observation is influential if
removing it from the model
substantially changes the
regression parameter estimates
27
If an observation is influential and an outlier, then
investigate it…
… and probably remove it
Select one or more observations, right-click and choose Exclude Selected to remove them
28
Variable Selection Plot
• The Variable Selection Plot window displays the change in value of the variable
selection statistic (e.g. R2) as effects are added or removed
• Available only if a variable

selection method is specified
29
Maximize: Linear Regression Details Table
• The details table pane provides detailed statistics about the model
via the different tabs, which are model dependent.
• To display the details table, click (Maximize) from the object toolbar
to enter maximize mode.
30
Linear Regression: Dimensions
The Dimensions tab displays information about the number of effects
and observations included in the model.
31
Linear Regression: Overall ANOVA
The Overall ANOVA tab
provides information about
how well the model fits
the data.
• Source – source of the variation in the data

• Deg Freedom – degrees of freedom associated with the source (Model degrees of freedom are the number of effects
(variables in the model) -1)
• Sum of Squares – sum of squared associated with each source of variability

• Mean Square – Sum of Squares ÷ Deg Freedom
• F Value – Model Mean Square ÷ Error Mean Square
• Pr > F – p-value associated with the F statistic
• R-Square – the proportion of variation in the response variable explained by the factors in the model
32
Linear Regression: Fit Statistics
The Fit Statistics tab displays statistics about the estimated model
compare models with same # of predictors
compare models with different # of predictors
33
Linear Regression: Parameter Estimates
The Parameter Estimates tab displays the parameter estimates (coefficients)
of each model effect and their associated statistics.
• Check that the estimates of the

parameters make sense
• Check the significance (p-value)
34
Linear Regression: Selection Info
The Selection Info tab displays a summary of the variable selection
methodology.
35
Linear Regression: Selection Summary
The Selection Summary tab displays a summary of the variable selection
results at each step in the selection process.
36
Linear Regression: Assessment
The Assessment tab displays the binned assessment results that are used
to generate the Assessment plot.
37

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Linear Regression Models

Copyr ig ht © SAS Institute Inc . All r ig hts re s e r ve d.

• Use SAS Visual Analytics to prepare and explore data.

2 SAS Visual Statistics Objects

• Example: determine trends in data…

Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + … + bkXk + e

• There is only one response variable: Y

Y = b0 + b1X1 + b2X2 + … + bkXk + e

• Model effects or explanatory variables can be one of the following effects:

Goal: Find the line

• Response – one measure

Fit Summary Assessment

• The vertical significance level

• The smaller the p-value, the

• used to access the quality of the

• To change the statistic that is

• To show or filter selected data,

• Available only if a variable

• Source – source of the variation in the data

• Sum of Squares – sum of squared associated with each source of variability

compare models with same # of predictors

compare models with different # of predictors

• Check that the estimates of the

• Check the significance (p-value)

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