GEOG1000A/1003A Environmental Change

DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL THINKING

Empirical Evidence

Prof Jennifer Fitchett

Jennifer.Fitchett@wits.ac.za
Resources vs Population Growth
Does this graph represent reality?
If not, why not?
What is missing?
What could alter these outcomes?
Resources

Time
Technology, Population Growth and Management

To answer this question, we need to look to empirical

evidence, rather than purely debating contrasting
theories

What does empirical evidence mean?

Information obtained from observation and

documentation, often through experiments
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Lee
• Argues that:
• there are time periods in which resource scarcity is
are characterised by a Malthusian response of
preventative or positive checks,
• other periods where this is solved by Boserupian
forces of technological adaptation
• Population and technological state of the economy
determine which response will play out
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Bilsborrow
• Similar to Lee, did not believe that it was one or the
other
• Looked to the developing world with growing rural
populations
• Found an array of responses to these growing rural
populations can make in adjusting to resource
pressure
• Divided these into demographic, economic and a
hybrid of the two
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Bilsborrow
Response classification Action
Demographic Deliberate reduction in
population
Reduction in surviving
population
Economic Intensification of agriculture
Improved agricultural efficiency
Demographic-Economic Out-migration from the stressed
region
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Bilsborrow
• Both Boserupian and Malthusian responses can
therefore co-exist
• The degree of technological response depends on the
scope for intensification
• Eg. if a region is technologically underdeveloped by
global standards, there is large scope for
development which will result in large increase in
production
• If the region is already at a technological peak,
Malthusian approach is more likely to occur
• NB: the community itself are not seen as innovators
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Maathai
• Kenyan environmentalist, won the Nobel Peace Prize in
2004
• She argues that governance is the most important
component of addressing environmental challenges
associated with population growth
• Neither population reduction nor innovation will be
successful without good governance; good governance
can resolve situations in Malthusian collapse
• Distinct focus on the role of poverty
• Responsible for the Green Belt Movement
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Maathai
Technology, Population Growth and Management

What was the green belt movement?

Technology, Population Growth and Management

Machakos
• The Kenyan village where Maathai was from, and the focus
of study from 1930-1990
• Community of agro-pastoralists in a marginal semi-
arid area
• Populations encountered low soil fertility, high
erodibility, frequent droughts
• Population grew 3% per annum from 238,000 to
1,393,000 in this time
RECIPE FOR DISASTER ACCORDING TO THE THINKING OF
MALTHUS AND CLUB OF ROME
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Machakos
• 1937 the government established soil conservation
measures including terracing
• Donor agencies contributed tools, food aid and
supervision for soil conservation
• Diversification of crops including coffee and cotton
• Crop yields improved
• Community managed to triple their livelihood
without degrading the environment
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Machakos
Why did this work?
• Integrated management including families, local
leadership, educational institutions and government
• Innovation in the farming techniques that were used
Technology, Population Growth and Management

Can this still be a successful approach, both in Kenya

and elsewhere?

Why?

Why not?
Technology, Population Growth and Management
Technology, Population Growth and Management

What does this mean for the Malthus-Boserup graph?

Try and draw it!
Resources

Time
THE GREEN REVOLUTION
The green revolution was presented to you in the
lecture on innovation and the Boserupian theory.

But, was this a purely Boserupian response?

Borlaug was well aware of the implications of

population growth, and did not believe that his
innovations would prevent future food shortages or
ensure long term food security.
THE GREEN REVOLUTION
In his Nobel lecture, Borlaug repeatedly presented
improvements in food production within a sober
understanding of the context of population:

"The green revolution has won a temporary success in man's war against
hunger and deprivation; it has given man a breathing space. If fully
implemented, the revolution can provide sufficient food for sustenance
during the next three decades. But the frightening power of human
reproduction must also be curbed; otherwise the success of the green
revolution will be ephemeral only. Most people still fail to comprehend
the magnitude and menace of the "Population Monster"...Since man is
potentially a rational being, however, I am confident that within the next
two decades he will recognize the self-destructive course he steers along
the road of irresponsible population growth..."
Why do Environmental Issues Occur
TASK

Draw a timeline that shows the key events in

environmental thinking. Include the person
responsible for the shift in thinking, and their key
publication.

Do you think that there has been a development in

the way that people think about the causes of
environmental change?

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