POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES

COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

QUIZ # 1: REVIEW ON PROBABILITY

INSTRUCTIONS:

1. Before answering each problem, remember to do these steps: breathe deeply in and out,
read the problem, stare at the problem, then breathe deeply again in and out.
2. Do not round off intermediate computation. Round off final answer to three decimal places.
3. Do not write your name. Write only your student number at the lower right-hand corner of
each sheet. Please write the problem number, e.g. “E1, A2, N”, at the upper left-hand corner
of your answer sheet. Please make them BIG for easy reference.
4. Answer each number on a separate sheet of paper. You are to write your solutions at the
front page of each sheet. You may use the back pages of your answer sheets for scratch
and doodling. The front page is the page containing your student and problem numbers.
Solutions written at the back page will not be checked and cannot be credited for partial
points.
5. You are only to answer a maximum of five problems. You may answer less than five
problems. If you answer more than five problems, only the first five problems in order of
appearance in your answer sheet will be checked.
6. To pass this exam, you need to accumulate a score of 750; 1,000 points equals 100%. You
may answer more than 1,000 points worth as long as you do not exceed the ten-question
rule as stated in item number 5.

You may not be the best, but you are good enough. Remember that.

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I. EASY (30 points each)

1. If the probability of event A is 0.4, and the probability of the intersection of events B and
A is 0.3, what is the probability of the intersection of events A and B’?
2. A card is drawn from a pack of cards. A is the event that an ace is obtained. B is the event
that a red suit is obtained. C is the event that a picture card (jack, queen, or king) is obtained.
Events are independent of each other. Find the union of events A, B, and C.
3. A bag contains 200 balls that are either red or blue and either dull or shiny. There are 55
shiny red balls, 91 shiny balls, and 79 red balls. If a ball is chosen at random, what is the
probability that it is either a dull ball or a blue ball?
4. When a company received an order, there is a probability 0.42 that its value is more than
P40,000. If an order is valued more than P40,000, then there is a probability of 0.63 that
the customer will pay with a credit card. What is the probability that the next order will be
valued over P40,000 but will not be paid with a credit card?
5. If the probability of event A is 0.5, the probability of the intersection of A and B is 0.1, and
the probability of the union of A and B is 0.8, what is the probability of B?
6. Assume two events, A and B, are not independent. Give the equation to compute for the
intersection of events A and B.
7. A gene can be either type A or type B, and it can either be dominant or recessive. If the
gene is type B, then there is a probability of 0.31 that it is dominant. The probability that a
gene is type B and dominant is 0.22. What is the probability that a gene is of type A?

II. AVERAGE (100 points each)

1. You are given P A  B  = 0.7 and P A  B ' = 0.9 . Determine P A .  

2. Four cards are chosen without replacement from a pack of cards. What is the probability
that all four cards are from different suits?
3. A system has four computers. Computer 1 works with a reliability of 0.88; computer 2 has
a reliability of 0.78; computer 3 works with a probability of 0.92; while computer 4 works
with a probability of 0.85. Suppose that the operations of the computer are independent of
each other. Suppose that the system works if at least one computer is working. What is the
probability that the system works?
 POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

4. Bag A contains 3 red balls and 7 blue balls. Bag B contains 8 red balls and 4 blue balls.
Bag C contains 5 red balls and 11 blue balls. A bag is chosen at random, with each bag
equally likely to be chosen, and then a ball is chosen at random from that bag. Calculate
the probability that a red ball is chosen.
5. A doctor is studying the relationship between blood pressure and heartbeat abnormalities
in her patients. She tests a random sample of her patients and notes their blood pressures
(high, low, or normal) and their heartbeats (regular or irregular). She finds that:

• 14% have high blood pressure

• 22% have low blood pressure
• 15% have an irregular heartbeat
• Of those with an irregular heartbeat, one-third have high blood pressure
• Of those with normal blood pressure, one-eighth have an irregular heartbeat

What portion of the patients has a regular heartbeat and low blood pressure?

III. DIFFICULT (200 points each)

1. Suppose that n components are available, and that each component has a probability of
0.90 of operating correctly, independent of the other components. What value of n is
needed so that there is a 99.5% assurance that at least one component operates correctly?
2. Bag A contains 3 red balls and 7 blue balls. Bag B contains 8 red balls and 4 blue balls.
Bag C contains 5 red balls and 11 blue balls. A bag is chosen at random, with each bag
equally likely to be chosen, and then a ball is chosen at random from that bag. If it is known
that a blue ball is chosen, what is the probability that it came from bag B?
3. An urn contains 10 balls: 4 red and 6 blue. A second urn contains 16 red balls and an
unknown number of blue balls. A single ball is drawn from each urn. The probability that
both balls are the same color is 0.44. Calculate the number of blue balls in the second urn.

IV. NOSEBLEED (500 points)

You are given the production layout below:

Raw material travels from left to right. The boxes represent the different machines while the
numbers represent the probability that a machine will be operable for that day. The machines
fail independently. Currently, raw materials have two possible paths: 0.9 → 0.95 → 0.88 or
0.85 → 0.99 → 0.89. One way to increase reliability (probability that a system will successfully
process an input into its desired output) is to put switches.
 POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF THE PHILIPPINES
COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING
DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING

If switch A is opened (while switch B is closed), two new paths can be opened: 0.85 → 0.95 →
0.88 and 0.9 → 0.99 → 0.89. If switch B is opened (while switch A is closed), two new paths are
also opened: 0.9 → 0.95 → 0.89 and 0.85 → 0.99 → 0.88.

Due to budget constraint, only one switch can be installed. As the resident industrial engineer of
the company, would you recommend to install a switch? If yes, which switch would you install, A
or B?