How to Identify Turning

Points with Confidence

The Complete Guide
By Adrian Buthee,
Head of Trading at Trendsignal

Trendsignal Limited is a company registered in England (Company Number 05003777). Trendsignal

Limited has a registered office at: The Innovation Centre, University Way, Cranfield Technology
Park, Beds, MK43 0BT, United Kingdom.

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

Established in 2003, Trendsignal helps individual traders and investors trade with confidence by
providing courses that include a powerful combination of online learning and simple to use tools.
These courses take away the complexities many experience when trading from home. The visual
indicators, trade scanners and signals provided, enable our members to find new trades with ease.
coaching allowing our members to develop their skills further. In short, Trendsignal provides an
award-winning framework that new and experienced traders can follow, requiring from just 15-20
minutes per day.
Wherever they are and however they like to learn, our members are supported with on-demand
training videos and handouts, live online training webinars, group coaching workshops and their own
personalised one to one coaching programme with experienced traders.
With courses on Forex, Stocks, Cryptocurrencies and Day trading, we have programmes to suit
different trading styles, allow members to establish their goals and trade with confidence.

This document constitutes the general views of Trendsignal and should not be regarded as
personalised investment or tax advice or a reflection of client performance. No assurances are made
that Trendsignal will continue to hold these views, which may change at any time based on new
information, analysis or reconsideration. Nothing herein is intended to be a recommendation or
forecast of market conditions. Rather, it is intended to illustrate a point. Current and future markets
may differ significantly from those illustrated herein. In addition, no assurances are made regarding
the accuracy of any assumptions made in any illustrations herein.
Investing in financial markets involves the risk of loss and there is no guarantee that all or any
investment capital will be repaid. Past performance neither guarantees nor reliably indicates future
performance.
There can be no assurances that investment returns from a particular strategy will exceed returns
from another strategy.
This document has been approved and is being communicated by Trendsignal Limited.

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

How to Identify Turning Points with
Confidence
The Complete Guide
By Adrian Buthee, Head of Trading at Trendsignal
Have you ever tried to guess the low of a market, buying it
thinking, “it cannot go any lower…surely”? Or have you ever
thought, “WOW, that market has gone up A LOT, it has to
have a pull back”? I think all traders have thought that at
some point, and in my opinion, they are some of the most
dangerous thoughts a trader can have.
We see this scenario all the time… buy low then sell high. Simple right? Not if it continues
to go lower! And that’s the point. When is Low? When is High? Without the right strategy
it is almost impossible to consistently pinpoint when the market is going to turn.
So here’s what often happens… it’s called a Martingale
Strategy. A bit like the Roulette table, where you can bet
on Red or Black – the theory being, it has to come up Red
at some point…so after a Black number, you double your
bet…after another Black, you double again, so a £10 bet on
Red, becomes £20 bet on Red on the next spin of the
wheel, and then £40, then £80 until you hit a winner.
Back to trading and the
strategy is this…”That stock has fallen too much, it must come
back up”. So, the temptation is to buy because the stock price
feels cheap. But as the price falls a bit more, you buy more
because it seems even better value now (this is called
“averaging in”, where your average entry price is lowered the
more you buy at lower prices, but crucially an average price
that is higher than the current market price). But it continues to
fall, and you cannot believe it, panic sets in and you buy some
more…again. And then what, the market rises. Great, you close
all trades and take a small profit and breath normally again.
Phew, that was ok…I traded my way out of that problem.
The trap is though, you do it again. And trade your way out of the problem again. And
again. Until you convince yourself that you can guess the lows of the market and can trade
out of any deep move. Just keep buying more. Easy.
Hmmm.
Until it continues to fall that is.
There are 2 things I will guarantee from this method:
1. You have the opportunity to make money REALLY FAST.
2. It only takes you being wrong once to LOSE IT ALL! And that WILL happen. Because
the markets can carry on going a lot further than the depth of anyone’s pockets.
In fact, you can get it right 99% of the time, but one bad trade on an overextended move
can take your entire account…AND MORE!
Sounds horrible doesn’t it, and extremely stressful! And yet that’s how many people trade,
and a bit like how I started trading.

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

Ok, I don’t have a “pain” story like most market commentators before they tell you the Holy
Grail solution to their problem, but it could have quite easily been as I was certainly on the
wrong path.
Here’s the thing, I used to bet on a lot of sports and the 2 things common to most betters
are:
1) Check the form guide – Ask the question, “Does this horse have a recent history of
winning races, or is it a 3 legged nag?”.
2) Look for Value – Is there value in the odds offered to me by the bookmaker.
In trading terms, is this a market/stock I should buy, and is now the right time to buy?
And then it hit me…I had been buying the 3 legged stocks and getting it all wrong! I kept
trying to buy a falling market, hoping to be clever and buy the low. I kept thinking it must
go back up because even a Dead Cat can bounce right? Hmmm. Anyone heard of Enron?
Too big to fail at $60billion market capitalization? Evidently not. How about a move from
$90.75 to less than $1 within 18 months! I didn’t buy that stock, but I know quite a few that
did and it went something like this:

You see, my initial trading started whilst working as a Trainee Stock Broker in my home
town. My Grandma passed away and left me £5,000, so I put it in a trading account and
got started. I didn’t really know what I was doing, but I backed a few Banking stocks, made
a few hundred and then thought, GREAT, this is easy. Until it wasn’t.
Anyway, circumstances meant that I was made redundant from my role (a casualty of the
bursting of the tech bubble and lots more examples here of the above chart) and that’s
when I found Trendsignal. I was looking for the next stage of my career and also for my
own trading. Really, I was looking for a solution to both.
Trendsignal was a company that taught people about “Trends” and “How to identify
Turning Points”. Whilst it seemed basic in its concept, it wasn’t something I had really
thought about before, and in speaking to thousands of people since, it seems like I wasn’t
the only one.

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

I knew I wanted something better and someone to help me know which was the “form”
stock or currency and also when represented value. So basically, I needed help with Trends
and Timing.
I joined Trendsignal and have since gone on to become the “Head of Trading”, and I want
to talk about the journey that Trendsignal has allowed me to take – namely the ability to
identify trends and turning points with a +70% accuracy rate – in other words, 77% of
trades that follow the Daily setups are profitable (based on performance history from Jan
2011 – March 2022).

The Trend is Your Friend

Let’s start by looking at Trends. Firstly, we need to know if this market is the 3 legged nag
or the raging thoroughbred. I don’t mind either actually, because I can make money on
falling markets as well as on rising markets, but that’s perhaps a story for another time, I just
need to know.
Most investors are used to buying stock and holding, so let’s go with the thoroughbred
example. Clearly, if a stock has been rising for the past few months, the moves up will have
been bigger than the moves back down.
Something like this:
So, which move do I want to capture? The smaller
move down (pull back), or the bigger move up?
Ok, probably both because I am greedy, but if
you could choose only one?
The move up makes more sense. In an up-trend
they are typically bigger and therefore have
more profit potential.
Most traders fall in to “buy low, sell high”.
However, the adage really should be “buy high,
sell higher”. As the diagram shows, I want to buy
a rising market and I want to short (shorting is
where you can make money on prices going
down) a falling market.
So, how can you assess whether it is a falling or rising market? (the longer term trend).
In order to establish the longer term trend, we need to step back and assess the form
guide. We need to see if the stock/market has been going up over the past few months, or
showing a pattern synonymous with rising prices. If it has, common sense would suggest
that I should be looking for opportunities to buy – to buy a rising market. By comparison, if
it is a stock that is falling, clearly there is a problem with it – and I shouldn’t be looking to
buy it. Perhaps instead I should be shorting it, and speculating on the price falling (don’t
worry if you don’t follow that concept – all you need to know is that in trading we have the
ability to speculate on falling or rising markets as we merely trade the direction.).
There are a number of ways to check the trend and directional bias of a market, but I
wanted something pretty simple and quick. There are 500 stocks in the S&P 500 and quite
a few currency pairs, and I didn’t want to hack through endless chart patterns to find the
trend. Trendsignal kept it pretty simple. If trading off the daily chart (and holding trades
for a few days) they taught me to step back to the monthly chart and look for a Red /
Green line on their chart. The indicator used is Trendsignal’s own and called the Vector
Average:

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

The line on the above chart basically says, if the Line is RED, you should prefer Short Trades
(speculate on falling prices) and if the Line is GREEN, you should prefer BUY Trades. What
this does is ensures that you are on the right side of the market. Of course, trends can
change, but if we can get a measure of where the market is “more likely” to go over the
next few months, then we have an edge.
Here’s what I mean…

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

See how the Line changed from GREEN to RED at point A?
That means that the trend is now down. This means that the bigger moves over the coming
months are more likely to be falling. As such, we should be pretty careful about buying the
market! Why? Because any move up is more likely to be fairly short lived, followed by a
bigger move lower. This is basically my 3-legged nag example, that is less likely to ever win
a race!
As a trader, I want to play the probability so would prefer to follow the bigger move down.
Equally, at the left side of the chart, the line is GREEN. So, the “Trend is UP”. In which case, I
prefer buy trades than short trades as I expect these moves to be bigger. That’s my
thoroughbred winning horse.
So, as a prudent and risk averse trader, I prefer to look for opportunities to buy when in an
up trending market.
Making sense?
Ok, so now I know the Trend – how about the timing? Just because the trend is up, does
that mean I just buy now? Of course not, value and timing is critical here. The good news is
that it doesn’t have to be difficult to spot either.
Here’s how I do it:

This chart above shows the Daily chart for GBPCAD. I’ll keep it simple today. See that disk
on the chart? That’s a Sniper Circle, which basically means the Trendsignal software has
identified a high-probability opportunity right at that point.
The Sniper circle is plotted when our algorithms identify a consistently performing trade
setup. It is looking at lots of complex maths such as candlestick patterns, chart patterns,
trends, Fibonacci, overbought / oversold indicators etc to clearly and visually help you to

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

make better trading and investment decisions – and the best part is the system does ALL
that analysis for me – breaking down the complexity of finding my trades.
Would you like to be able to trade with that degree of simplicity and accuracy?
As for me, I had always prided myself as someone who picks things up quickly on my own.
What I found at Trendsignal was the support from my colleagues within the company to
train me to replicate their trading results and to then develop my skills beyond the rules.
This was instrumental to my success. Live training and education has to be the most
effective way of learning. I was lucky enough to have that. So, now as Head of Trading, I
have put Live training at the heart of our programmes. So that you can learn from
professional traders as the markets are moving…and ask questions to professional traders,
all whilst following the same rules based strategies that we are ALL following. This is what I
had, and it is what I want for our members too.
Let me show you how this works at one of my live webinar events (The Sniper Strategy Live
Workshop). It is free to attend and I’ll even teach you the rules for the Sniper strategy on
live markets, explaining how where we set our price targets and stop loss levels - not to
mention some great pointers on risk management, psychology and developing a trading
plan that works.
We host all these sessions live so this gives you a great opportunity to chat with and ask
professionals questions whilst also learning a great trading strategy – a strategy that
literally only takes 20 minutes to carry out!
Click this button below to find out more about “The Sniper Strategy Live Workshop”.

Reserve your FREE place

I hope to see you online soon.

Adrian Buthee
Head of Trading
Trendsignal

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

Performance and Success Stories
The below table shows full, verifiable performance data and a full log of closed trades
identified by the D1 Sniper Strategy in March 2022.

Data correct as of 1st April 2022. The table above shows results for all trades identified by the D1 Sniper
Strategy between January 2011 and March 2022. This D1 Sniper Strategy is just one of the strategies included
within the Trendsignal Plus programme. Past Performance is not a guarantee of future performance.

Trendsignal has won ADVFN’s “Best Trading Education Provider”

Award for seven years in a row, from 2016 to 2022.

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

Trendsignal’s D1 Sniper Strategy: 77% win rate since 2011.
Established in 2003, Trendsignal is an award-winning trading educator, providing new and
experienced home traders with courses that include simple-to-use software and live
coaching to help them trade Forex, Stocks and Cryptocurrencies with confidence.
Here’s why our members love using our strategies and coaching programmes:

Exclusive opportunity for readers of this report

Join our free webinar

See Trendsignal’s Indicators and Strategies on LIVE markets

We hope you’ve found this analysis of these five popular markets useful.
To find out more about Trendsignal’s proprietary trading technology, why not book a place
at one of our free live online webinars?

Click here to register for your free place at our next live session
In the session, we’ll demonstrate our clear, highly visual colour-coded indicators that tell
you when to buy and sell across a range of markets, including stocks, stock indexes, forex,
commodities and cryptocurrencies.
And you’ll also learn our simple-to-follow, step-by-step set of rules for placing your
trades.
In this report, you’ve seen how our software does the analysis for us, providing clear signals
that identify turning points in the market.

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited

But in the webinar, we’ll give you an even clearer demonstration of how we can help you
with your trading. We will look at lots of trades on different markets and how our indicators
are doing the hard work for us of finding great trade opportunities. And by the end of the
session, you’ll be able to see how to spot and place a trade using our strategies.
And at the end of the session, if you’d like to know more about using our strategies and
coaching programme, we can have a one-to-one conversation and show you how to get
started.
We have a choice of session times, so take a look and book your free place at the best time
for you.

Book your preferred session here

How to Identify Turning Points with Confidence – Trendsignal Limited