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 ASSESSING THE
ECONOMIC IMPACT
OF TOURISM
A Computable General
Equilibrium Modelling Approach

Samuel Meng and

Mahinda Siriwardana
Assessing the Economic Impact of Tourism
 Samuel Meng • Mahinda Siriwardana

Assessing the
Economic Impact
of Tourism
A Computable General Equilibrium Modelling
Approach
Samuel Meng Mahinda Siriwardana
University of New England University of New England
Armidale, New South Wales Armidale, New South Wales
Australia Australia

ISBN 978-3-319-40327-4 ISBN 978-3-319-40328-1 (eBook)

DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-40328-1

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016956078

© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the
whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of
illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and
transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by
similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this
book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the
authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained
herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made.

Cover illustration: © Infografx / Alamy Stock Photo

Printed on acid-free paper

This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature

The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG
The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
 Contents

1 An Introduction to CGE Modelling 1

1.1 What Is a CGE Model? 1
1.2 A Brief Historical Review of CGE Modelling 3
1.2.1 Walras’ Law: The Theoretical Foundation
for CGE Modelling 3
1.2.2 Input–Output Analysis: The Predecessor
of CGE Modelling 3
1.2.3 Advent of CGE Modelling 6
1.3 Elements of a Standard CGE Model 6
1.3.1 Elements in CGE Model Structure 7
1.3.2 Elements in CGE Database 8
1.4 Types of CGE Models 9
1.4.1 Static Versus Dynamic CGE Models 9
1.4.2 Single-Country Versus Global CGE Models 11
1.4.3 Single-Region Versus Multi-Regional CGE
Models 12
1.4.4 Top-Down Versus Bottom-Up CGE Models 12
1.4.5 Multi-Household and/or Multi-Occupation
CGE Models 13
1.4.6 CGE Models by Research Area 13

v
vi Contents

1.5 Acceptance of CGE Modelling 13

1.6 An Evaluation of CGE Modelling 15
1.6.1 Advantages of a CGE Model Over Other
Simulation Models 15
1.6.2 Drawbacks of CGE Modelling 16
References 18

2 Useful CGE Modelling Packages 25

2.1 GEMPACK Versus GAMS 25
2.1.1 Advantages of a Linear Model 26
2.1.2 Percentage Change Linearization Approach 27
2.1.3 Multi-Step Process to Minimizing the
Linearization Errors 29
2.2 How to Use GEMPACK to Do a Simulation 30
2.2.1 Using RunGEM 31
2.2.2 Using WinGEM 32
2.2.3 Viewing Simulation Results 34
2.3 How to Use GEMPACK to Construct/Change a
Model 36
2.3.1 Creating a TAB File 36
2.3.2 Creating a HAR File 45
2.3.3 Creating a CMF File 52
2.3.4 Creating an STI File 57
References 58

3 Application of CGE Modelling to Tourism 61

3.1 Suitability of a CGE Model in Tourism Analysis 61
3.2 Assessing the Impact of Tourism Demand and Tourism
Policy 62
3.3 Assessing the Impact of Mega Events on Tourism and on
the Economy 69
3.4 Assessing the Impact of Tourism on the Environment
and Natural Resources 74
3.5 Assessing the Distributional Effect of Tourism 76
References 77
 Contents vii

4 Collecting Background Information for a Tourism

CGE Model 83
4.1 Information on Economic Structure and the Role of
Tourism 83
4.1.1 General Feature of Singaporean Economy
and Its Implications 84
4.1.2 Manufacturing Sector 86
4.1.3 Trade, Hotels, and Restaurants 88
4.1.4 Financial and Business Services 89
4.1.5 Transportation and ICT Services 91
4.1.6 Linkages Among Sectors 93
4.2 Information on Tourism Resources 96
4.2.1 Favourable Geographic Position and Tropical
Environment 96
4.2.2 Colonial Historical Legacy 97
4.2.3 Sound Infrastructure and Efficient Service 99
4.3 Performance of the Tourism Sector 100
4.3.1 International Comparison 101
4.3.2 Performance over Time 102
4.3.3 Performance of the Hospitality Industry 106
4.4 Characteristics of Tourism Market 110
4.4.1 A Holiday and Business/MICE Destination 110
4.4.2 Diverse but Uneven Tourism-Generating
Markets 113
4.4.3 Gateway Tourism 116
4.4.4 Tourism Shopping and Health Tourism 119
4.5 Information on Tourism Policies 124
4.5.1 Modernist Aspiration (1965–1985) 124
4.5.2 Heritage Tourism (1986–1995) 125
4.5.3 Tourism Capital (1996–Present) 126
References 128

5 Constructing a Tourism CGE Model 131

5.1 How to Incorporate Tourism into a CGE Model 132
5.1.1 Creating a Real Tourism Industry 133
5.1.2 Creating a Shadow Tourism Industry 134
viii Contents

5.1.3 Modelling the Tourism Industry Directly from

the Demand Side 135
5.1.4 The Overview of a Tourism CGE Model 136
5.2 Production of Goods and Services 137
5.2.1 Demand for Composite Inputs 139
5.2.2 Demand for Intermediate Inputs 140
5.2.3 Demand for Primary Factors 145
5.2.4 Output Mix 147
5.3 Investors’ Demand 148
5.4 Household Utility 150
5.5 Tourism Demand 160
5.5.1 Demand for Composite Tourism Services 161
5.5.2 Demand for Tourism Shopping and
Non-Shopping Services 162
5.5.3 Tourism Shopping Expenditure Pattern 163
5.5.4 Tourism Non-Shopping Services Demand 167
5.5.5 TABLO Codes for Tourism Demand 169
5.6 Exports and Other Final Demands 177
5.6.1 Foreign Demand for Exports 177
5.6.2 Government Demand 178
5.7 The Price System 178
5.7.1 The Basic Values 179
5.7.2 The Purchasers’ Prices 181
5.8 Income, Consumption, and Investment 182
5.8.1 Household Income, Consumption,
and Budget Constraint 183
5.8.2 Government Income 184
5.8.3 Investment and Capital Accumulation 186
5.9 Imports, Exports, and Balance of Trade 188
5.10 Price Indices, Wage Indexation, and GDP Price
Deflator 189
5.11 Market Clearing Equations 194
5.12 The Complete Model 195
References 210
 Contents ix

6 Preparing Database for a Tourism CGE Model 211

6.1 Data Requirements 211
6.1.1 I–O Data 212
6.1.2 Other Data 212
6.2 Data Availability and Sources 214
6.2.1 Singaporean I–O Tables 215
6.2.2 Other Sources 217
6.3 Model Accounts 219
6.3.1 Production Account 219
6.3.2 Household Account 222
6.3.3 Tourism Account 225
6.3.4 Sectoral Employment 229
6.3.5 Investment Matrices 234
6.3.6 Tax Matrices 238
6.4 Behavioural Parameters 240
6.4.1 Input Substitution Elasticities 240
6.4.2 Products Transformation and Export Demand
Elasticities 242
6.4.3 Tourism Demand and Tourism Substitution
Elasticities 243
6.4.4 Frisch Parameter and Household Expenditure
Elasticities 244
References 246

7 Model Implementation and Testing 249

7.1 The Integrity of Model Implementation 249
7.1.1 The Accuracy and Consistency of Data 250
7.1.2 The Rigorous Simulation Procedure in
GEMPACK 251
7.1.3 Model Validity Tests 253
7.2 Simulation Design 255
7.2.1 Economic Environment for Simulation 255
7.2.2 Simulation Plans 257
7.3 Sensitivity Tests 262
7.3.1 Testing Tourism and Export Demand Elasticities 262
x Contents

7.3.2 Testing Wage Indexation and Product

Transformation Elasticities 266
7.3.3 Testing Substitution Elasticities 266
7.3.4 Systematic Sensitivity Analysis 269
References 271

8 Interpretation of Results from a Tourism CGE Model 273

8.1 The Impact of Disaggregated Tourism Demand 273
8.1.1 The Macroeconomic Effects 274
8.1.2 The Sectoral Effects 284
8.1.3 Employment Effects 291
8.2 The Impact of Negative Mega Events and Policy
Responses 295
8.2.1 The Macroeconomic Effects 295
8.2.2 The Tourism Effects 305
8.2.3 The Sectoral Effects 311
8.2.4 The Employment Effects 315
8.3 The Effectiveness of Singaporean Tourism Policies 331
8.3.1 The Macroeconomic Effects 332
8.3.2 The Tourism Effects 336
8.3.3 The Sectoral Effects 337
8.3.4 The Employment Effects 340
References 341

9 Frontiers of Tourism CGE Modelling 343

9.1 Modelling Tourism in a Richer Environment 343
9.2 Modelling Tourism with a Multi-Regional CGE Model 344
9.3 Modelling Tourism with a Global Context 344
9.4 Modelling Tourism Using a Dynamic CGE Model 345

Index 347
 Abbreviations

AOR Average Occupancy Rate

ARR Average Room Rate
ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations
BOT Balance of Trade
CD Cobb–Douglas
CES Constant Elasticity of Substitution
CET Constant Elasticity of Transformation
CGE Computable General Equilibrium
CNTA China National Tourism Administration
COE Certificate of Entitlement
CPF Central Provident Fund
CPI Consumer Price Index
CRS Constant Returns to Scale
DOS Department of Statistics
DTD Double Tax Deduction
EV Equivalent Variation
F&B Food and Beverage
FMD Foot-and-Mouth Disease
FTA Free Trade Agreement
FTE Full-Time Equivalent
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GFC Global Financial Crisis
xi
xii Abbreviations

GST Goods and Service Tax

GTAP Global Trade Analysis Project
ICT Information Communication Technology
I–O Input–Output
IT Information Technology
LES Linear Expenditure System
MICE Meetings, Incentive travel, Exhibitions and Conventions
MMRF Monash Multi-Regional Forecast
MOM Ministry of Manpower
MRT Mass Rapid Transit
MTI Ministry of Trade and Industry
NCB National Computer Board
PMB Preservation of Monuments Board
RoW Rest of World
RWC Rugby World Cup
SARS Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
SPG South Pacific Games
STB Singapore Tourism Board
STPB Singapore Tourism Promotion Board
TDAS Tourism Development Assistance Scheme
TEV Total Expenditure of Visitors
TPF Tourism Policy and Forecasting
TR Tourism Receipts
TSA Tourism Satellite Account
UK United Kingdom
UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development
UNWTO United Nations World Tourism Organization
USA United States of America
WTTC World Travel and Tourism Council
 List of Figures

Fig. 1.1 Market equilibrium 2

Fig. 1.2 An illustration of economic system in a CGE model 7
Fig. 1.3 Comparative static interpretation of results in ORANI-G 10
Fig. 2.1 Johansen linearization error 29
Fig. 2.2 Multi-step process to reduce linearization error 30
Fig. 2.3 The RunGEM interface 32
Fig. 2.4 The interface for TABLO implement 33
Fig. 2.5 ViewSOL interface 35
Fig. 2.6 ViewHAR interface 46
Fig. 2.7 Interface of ‘create new set’ 46
Fig. 2.8 Interface of ‘create headers’ 47
Fig. 2.9 Interface of a har file header with default value 49
Fig. 2.10 The interface of ‘create mappings’ 50
Fig. 2.11 The interface of data aggregation 52
Fig. 4.1 Visitor arrivals by visiting purpose in recent years 111
Fig. 4.2 Visitor arrivals by region in 2006 113
Fig. 4.3 Top ten visitor arrivals by country in 2006 114
Fig. 4.4 Top ten tourism-generating markets by TEV in 2006 115
Fig. 4.5 Breakdown of TEV in 2006 119
Fig. 4.6 Top ten tourism shoppers in 2006 123
Fig. 5.1 Production of goods and services 138
Fig. 5.2 Investors’ demand 148
xiii
xiv List of Figures

Fig. 5.3 Household utility 151

Fig. 5.4 Tourism demand 161
Fig. 7.1 Steps in carrying out a simulation in GEMPACK 252
Fig. 7.2 Macroeconomic closure in the long run 256
Fig. 7.3 Macroeconomic closure in the short run 256
Fig. 7.4 Results of sensitivity tests for substitution elasticities 269
 List of Tables

Table 4.1 Overall economic structure of Singapore 84

Table 4.2 Sector share of total value-added, 1960–2007 85
Table 4.3 Structure of manufacturing industry 86
Table 4.4 Investment commitments in manufacturing industry 87
Table 4.5 Singapore’s top ten imports and exports in terms of value 88
Table 4.6 Structure of financial and business services industry 90
Table 4.7 Structure of transport and storage sector 92
Table 4.8 Employment linkages between sectors 94
Table 4.9 Intermediate demand in business sectors in 2000 95
Table 4.10 World top 15 city destinations 2006 101
Table 4.11 Top ten cities by number of meetings 2006 102
Table 4.12 Visitor arrivals and tourism receipts in Singapore from
1991 to 2005 104
Table 4.13 TEV and TR from 1998 to 2006 105
Table 4.14 Standard average occupancy rate (AOR) and average
room rate (ARR) 106
Table 4.15 Supply of hotels and hotel rooms at the end of
the year, 1997–2006 107
Table 4.16 Sales turnover of Cessable hotels and other F&B
establishments (S$ Million) 109
Table 4.17 Visitor arrivals by gender and age group 112

xv
xvi List of Tables

Table 4.18 Top ten tourism-generating markets by visitor arrivals

in recent years 115
Table 4.19 Average per capita expenditure for top ten tourism-
generating countries ($) 116
Table 4.20 Visitor arrivals by length of stay in recent years
(thousands) 117
Table 4.21 Number of air passengers 1980–1994 118
Table 4.22 Distribution of tourism expenditure on major
items (%), 2001–2006 120
Table 4.23 Distribution of tourism shopping items (%) 122
Table 5.1 Equations in the model 196
Table 5.2 Variables in the model 204
Table 5.3 Parameters and shares in the model 207
Table 6.1 Absorption matrix 213
Table 6.2 Make matrix 214
Table 6.3 Tariff vector 214
Table 6.4 Commodity analyses of purchases from domestic
production, 2005 (Absorption matrix) 216
Table 6.5 Commodity analysis of domestic output, 2005
(Make matrix) 217
Table 6.6 Commodity analysis of retained imports, 2005
(Import matrix) 218
Table 6.7 Mapping from I–O 2005 to aggregate I–O tables 223
Table 6.8 Breakdown of major tourism expenditure items 227
Table 6.9 Shopping items purchased as percentage of total
shopping expenditure 228
Table 6.10 Tourism expenditure by source region 230
Table 6.11 Employment by industry, 2006 (as at December 31) 231
Table 6.12 Employed residents aged 15 and over by industry and
occupation (thousands), June 2006 232
Table 6.13 Monthly gross wage of major occupation groups by
industry, June 2006 235
Table 6.14 Sectoral capital stock in Singapore ($ Million) 238
Table 6.15 The source and factor substitution elasticities for the
model 241
Table 6.16 Singaporean household expenditure elasticities 245
Table 7.1 Results of sensitivity tests for tourism and export
demand elasticities 264
10 Assessing the Economic Impact of Tourism

GDP

Change

O Year
T

Fig. 1.3 Comparative static interpretation of results in ORANI-G

reach level C, other things being equal. The ORANI-G simulation

generates a percentage change of 100(C B)/A, instead of a static
change 100(C A)/A. The change is comparative static rather than
dynamic, because we do not know the dynamic pattern: in the short
run, the capital stock in the model is fixed; in the long run, the capital
stock is adjusted according to exogenous rates of return; so the model
itself tells us nothing about the adjustment paths shown as the dashed
line in Fig. 1.3.
Compared with a static model, a dynamic model is generally more
advanced. The capital dynamic is one of the key driving forces in the
model. Generally, there is another driving force in a dynamic model: the
population growth. Currently, dynamic CGE models are also called
recursive dynamic CGE models. This is because the dynamic is achieved
through period-by-period (usually year-by-year) simulation.
Ideally, a dynamic model should be able to identify the optimal path
from the current equilibrium to a new equilibrium. However, due to
the complexity of an economic system, it is very difficult to identify the
desired new equilibrium (e.g. the output of all commodities in ten
years’ time) beforehand, and this makes the goal of finding the optimal
path unachievable. The way out of this is to let the capital and
population dynamic determine the new equilibrium of each year in
 1 An Introduction to CGE Modelling 11

the future. This is why the current dynamic CGE models are called
recursive dynamic.
Moreover, many things besides capital and population can and will
change, for example, the technology of production may improve. As a
result, a dynamic CGE model cannot rely only on the dynamic of capital
and population to project the performance of the economy in the future.
Usually, the macroeconomic forecasts (e.g. the GDP in ten years’ time)
based on macroeconometric models are incorporated into the CGE
model to quantify the speed of technological change in each period.
This will give a result consistent with economic forecasts but, in the
meantime, will inherit any errors embedded in the macroeconometric
forecasts.

1.4.2 Single-Country Versus Global CGE Models

The difference between a single-country and a global CGE model is the

scope of the model. The advantage of a single-country model is that it can
include detailed information about the country and thus can generate
detailed results for the country. However, this type of model generally
assumes that the rest of world is unchanged and thus cannot include the
feedback effect from other countries. This potentially makes the model-
ling results less realistic.
On the other hand, a global model can take into account the cross-
country linkage and provide the whole picture of the world economy.
This feature makes a global model a perfect option for studying interna-
tional trade. Due to limitation of data availability and model size, how-
ever, a global model is generally unable to include detailed information for
all countries and has limited use in addressing a specific research question
for a country.
Currently the solution to utilizing the advantage of both models is to
link a single-country model with a global model through multiple simu-
lations, that is, to feed the modelling results of a global model into a
single-country model and then to feed the results of single-country model
into the global model, and to repeat the procedure until the modelling
results from two models converge.
Another random document with
no related content on Scribd:
The Project Gutenberg eBook of Hannibal's
daughter
 This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United
States and most other parts of the world at no cost and with
almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away
or re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License
included with this ebook or online at www.gutenberg.org. If you
are not located in the United States, you will have to check the
laws of the country where you are located before using this
eBook.

Title: Hannibal's daughter

Author: Andrew Haggard

Release date: November 20, 2023 [eBook #72182]

Language: English

Original publication: London: Hutchinson & Co, 1898

Credits: an anonymous Project Gutenberg volunteer

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK HANNIBAL'S

DAUGHTER ***
Hannibal’s Daughter
BY
LIEUT. COL. ANDREW HAGGARD, D.S.O.
Author of
“Tempest Torn,” “Under Crescent and Star,” etc., etc.

LONDON
HUTCHINSON & CO.
PATERNOSTER ROW
1898
 Dedication.
TO HER ROYAL HIGHNESS THE PRINCESS LOUISE,
MARCHIONESS OF LORNE.

Madam,
Surely never, in the history of the world, have events more
romantic been known than the career of Hannibal and of his eventual
conqueror, the youthful Scipio. Therefore, under the title of
“Hannibal’s Daughter,” it has been my humble effort to present to the
world in romantic guise such a story as may impress itself upon the
minds of many who would never seek it for themselves in the classic
tomes of history.
Having been commenced on the actual site of Ancient Carthage,
the local colouring of the opening chapters may be, with the aid of
history, relied upon as being correct. Throughout the whole work,
moreover, the thread of the story has been interwoven with a
network of those wonderful feats that are so graphically recorded for
us in the pages of Polybius and Livy.
To Your Royal Highness, with the greatest respect, I have the
honour to dedicate my work. Should there appear to be aught of art
in the manner in which I have attempted to weave a combination of
history and romance, may I venture to hope that a true artist like
Your Royal Highness, of whose works the nation is justly proud, may
not deem the results of my efforts unworthy.

I have the honour to be,

Madam,
Your most obedient servant,
ANDREW C. P. HAGGARD.

Alford Bridge, Aberdeenshire, May, 1898.

 CONTENTS
PART I.
I. HAMILCAR
II. CARTHAGE
III. HANNIBAL’S VOW
PART II.
I. ELISSA
II. MAHARBAL
III. FOREWARNED
IV. FOUR CARTHAGINIAN NOBLES
V. PLOTS AND COUNTER-PLOTS
VI. CLEANDRA’S CUNNING
VII. MELANIA’S MISERY
VIII. LOVE FULFILLED
IX. A LAUGH AND A LIFE
PART III.
I. SOSILUS AND CHŒRAS
II. A GIGANTIC SCHEME
III. HANNIBAL’S DREAM
IV. FIRST BLOOD
V. AT THE FOOT OF THE ALPS
VI. OVER THE ALPS
VII. HANNIBAL’S FIRST TRIUMPH
VIII. EUGENIA
IX. THRASYMENE
X. FRIENDS MUST PART
XI. ELISSA AS A WARRIOR
XII. SOPHONISBA AND SCIPIO
XIII. ON THE BRINK
XIV. CANNÆ
PART IV.
 I. AFTER THE BATTLE
II. WIFE OR MISTRESS
III. FIGHTING WITH FATE
IV. THE FRUITS OF FOLLY
V. MARS VICTORIOUS
VI. CŒCILIA’S DEGRADATION
VII. A RENUNCIATION
PART V.
I. TO SYRACUSE
II. FROM SYRACUSE TO MACEDON
III. A SACRIFICE
IV. A LETTER FROM SCIPIO
V. A SCENE OF HORROR
PART VI.
I. A SPELL OF PEACE
II. ELISSA WRITES TO SCIPIO
III. A TERRIBLE SEA FIGHT
IV. ELISSA’S MISERY
V. HIS LEGAL WIFE
VI. A MOMENTOUS MEETING
VII. ZAMA
VIII. CONCLUSION
HANNIBAL’S DAUGHTER.
 PART I.

CHAPTER I.
HAMILCAR.

On a point of land on the Tœnia, a hundred paces or so to the south

of the canal connecting the sea with the Cothon or double harbour of
Carthage, stood a palatial residence. Upon the balcony, which ran
completely round the house on the first storey, stood a man gazing
steadily across the gulf towards the north-east, past the end of the
Hermæan Promontory, to the left, of which the distant Island of
Zembra alone relieved the monotony of the horizon. His face was
grave, and his short hair and beard were slightly grey, but he was
evidently a man from whom the fire of youth had not yet departed.
His eye was the eye of one born to command; his straight-cut, sun-
burned features told the tale of many campaigns. Near him, on a
stool covered with a leopard skin, was carelessly thrown a steel
helmet richly incrusted with gold, and with the crest and the crown
deeply indented, as if from recent hard usage. The golden crest was
in one place completely divided by a sword cut, the brighter colour of
the gold within the division plainly showing that the blow had been
but lately delivered. On the floor of the balcony, at the foot of the
stool, lay a long straight sword. Although the hilt was of ivory, and
the scabbard of silver inlaid with gems, the blood-stains on the
former and the absence of many of the gems from their sockets, told
that this was no fair-weather weapon for state occasions, but a lethal
blade which had been borne by its owner in the brunt of many a
combat. Only, the armour which the warrior wore—consisting as it
did merely of a bright steel breast-piece, upon the breast of which
was emblazoned in gold a gorgeous representation of the sun, the
emblem of the great god Baal or Moloch, and the back of which was
similarly inlaid with the two-horned moon, the attribute of the glorious
Astarte, Queen of Heaven, and further studded with golden stars, the
emblems of all the other and lesser divinities—seemed on first
appearance as if more intended for the court than the camp. A closer
examination, however, revealed the fact that this also was no mere
holiday armour, for it, too, bore severe marks of ill-usage. The
warrior’s arms were bare from the elbow downwards, save for a
couple of circlets of gold upon each wrist, which from their width
seemed more intended for defence than ornament. Beneath the
armour he wore a bright toga of pure white cloth, the lower part
falling in a kilted skirt below the knee, being adorned with a narrow
band of Tyrian purple. Upon his feet he wore cothurns or sandals
strongly attached with leather thongs, the thongs being protected
with bright chain mail. Some steel pieces for the protection of the
thigh and knee were lying close at hand.
Such was the attire of the great General Hamilcar Barca, as with
an ever-deepening frown upon his anxious brow, he gazed sternly
and steadily in deepest reverie across the sea.
At length his reverie seemed to be broken.
“Why gaze thus towards Sicily,” he muttered; “why dream of
vengeance upon the hated Romans, who now occupy from end to
end of that fair isle, where, for many years, by the grace of
Melcareth, the invisible and omnipotent god, I was able with my
small army of mercenaries to deal them so many terrible and
crushing blows?
“Have they not almost as much cause to hate and to dread me,
who did so much to lower their pride and wipe out the memory of
their former victories? Did I not brave them for years from Mount
Ercte, descending daily like a wolf from the mountain crest, to ravage
the country in front of their very faces in strongly-fortified Panormus,
from the shelter of whose walls, for very fear of my name, they
scarcely dared to stir, so sure were they that their armies would be
cut to pieces by Hamilcar Barca?
“Did I not firmly establish myself in Mount Eryx, half-way up its
slope in the city on the hill, and there for two years, despite a huge
Roman army at the bottom, and their Gallic allies holding the fortified
temple at the top, snap my fingers at them, ay, laugh them to scorn
and destroy them by the thousand? For all that time, was not their
gold utterly unable to buy the treachery of my followers—were not
their arms utterly futile against my person? Did they not indeed find
to their cost that I was indeed the Hamilcar my name betokens—him
whom the mighty Melcareth protects?”
Proudly glancing across the sea with a scornful laugh, he
continued:
“Oh, ye Romans! well know ye that had not mine own countrymen
left me for four long years without men, money, or provisions, Sicily
had even now been mine. Oh, Prætor Valerius! what was thy much
boasted victory of the Œgatian Islands over the Admiral Hanno but
the conquest of a mere convoy of ill-armed cargo vessels, whom
mine economical countrymen were too parsimonious to send to my
relief under proper escort. Where was then thy glory, Valerius? And
thou, too, Lutatius Catulus? how did I receive thy arrogant proposals
that my troops should march out of Eryx under the yoke? I, a
Hamilcar Barca, march out under the yoke!” The General’s swarthy
cheek reddened at the thought. “Did not I but laugh in thy beard and
lay my hand upon this sword—which I now lift up and kiss before
heaven,” he raised and kissed the blood-stained hilt. “Did not I, even
as I do now, but simply bare the well-known blade,” here he drew it
from its sheath, “and thou didst fall and tremble before me, and in
thine anxiety to rid Sicily of me didst willingly take back thine insult
and offer to Hamilcar and all his troops the full and free liberty to
march out with all the honours of war? Ah!” he continued, stretching
forth his sword menacingly across the sea, “for all that it hath been
mine own countrymen who were the main cause of my downfall, I yet
owe thee a vengeance, Rome, a vengeance not for mine own but for
my country’s sake, and, with the help of the gods, in days not long to
come, those of my blood shall redden the plains and mountains of
Europe with the terrible vengeance of the Barcine sword.”
The General returned his sword to its sheath with an angry clang,
then striding across the wide balcony to where it overlooked a
beautiful garden on the other side of the house, he shouted loudly:
“Hannibal, Hannibal!”
 There was no reply, but down beneath the shelter of the fig trees
Hamilcar could plainly perceive three little boys engaged in a very
rough game of mimic warfare. They were all three armed with
wooden swords and small shields of metal. One of them was up in a
fig tree and striking downwards at the head of one who stood upon
the crown of a wall; while the third boy, who stood below the wall,
was striking upwards at his legs. The din of the resounding blows
falling upon the shields was so great that the boy at first did not hear.
“Hannibal, come hither at once,” cried out his father again in
louder tones.
Looking up and seeing his father, the boy on the wall threw down
his shield, a movement which was instantly taken advantage of by
each of the two other boys to get a blow well home. He did not,
however, pause to retaliate, but crying out, “That will I revenge later,”
threw down his sword also and rushed into the house and up to the
balcony, for even at his early age the boy had been taught discipline
and instant obedience, and he knew better than to delay. He
appeared before his father all out of breath and with torn clothing.
Notwithstanding that his forehead was bleeding from the result of the
last cut which had been delivered by the boy in the tree, he did not
attempt to wipe the wound, but with cast-down eyes and hands
crossed over his breast, silently awaited his father’s commands.
“What wast thou doing in the garden, Hannibal?”
“Waiting until Chronos the slave could take me up to see the burnt
sacrifice to Baal of the mercenaries whom thou hast conquered,” he
answered—then added excitedly, “Matho, who murdered Gisco and
his six hundred after mutilating them first, is to be tortured, thou
knowest, oh, my father, Chronos told me so, and I am going to see it
done.”
Hamilcar frowned.
“Nay, it is not my will that thou shalt go to see Matho tortured and
burnt; now, what else wast thou doing down there?”
The boy’s face fell; he did not like to be deprived of the pleasure of
seeing Matho tortured first and burned afterwards, for, boy as he
was, he knew that if ever man in this world deserved the torture, that
man was this last surviving chief of his father’s revolted mercenaries.
 But he made no protest at the deprivation of his expected
morning’s amusement, answering his father simply.
“I was playing with my brothers Hasdrubal and Mago at thine
occupation of the City on Mount Eryx, oh! my father. Mago was up in
the tree and represented the Gauls who had deserted and joined the
Romans. Hasdrubal was down below and took the place of the
Roman Army.”
“And thou wast in thy father’s place between the two, and like thy
father himself, hast been wounded,” replied Hamilcar, smiling grimly.
“Come, wipe thy face, lad, and tell me why didst not thou, being the
strongest, take the part of the Romans at the bottom of the hill?”
Fiercely the youth raised his head, and, looking his father straight
in the face, replied:
“For two reasons, my father. First, I am much stronger than
Hasdrubal, and the war would have been too soon over; secondly, I
hate the Romans, and for nothing in the world would I represent
them even in play.”
“Ah! thou hatest the Romans! And wilt thou then fight them one
day in earnest and avenge the torrents of Carthaginian blood they
have caused to flow, the hundreds of Carthaginian cities whose
inhabitants they have put to the sword; avenge, too, our defeat and
loss of forty-one elephants before Heraclea; the sacking of
Agrigentum and enslavement of 25,000 of its citizens; the terrible
loss of three hundred warships at Ecnomos; the invasion of
Carthaginia by Regulus; his sacking and burning of all the fair
domain between here and Clypea, across yonder Hermæan
Promontory; the capture by Cœcilius Metellus before Panormus of
120 elephants from Hasdrubal, all of them slaughtered in cold blood
as a spectacle for the Roman citizens in the Roman circus; the fight
at—”
“Stop, father, stop!” cried the young Hannibal, stamping his foot. “I
can bear no more. By thy sword here, which I can even now draw—
see I do so—I swear to fight and avenge all these disasters. By the
favour of the great god Baal, whose name I bear, I will wage war
against them all my life as soon as ever I am old enough to carry
arms.”
 “Good,” said his father, “thou art a worthy son of Hamilcar, and this
very day shalt thou swear, not in the bloody temple of Moloch, but in
the sacred fane of Melcareth, the god of the city, the god of thy
forefathers in Tyre, and the god of the divine Dido, the foundress of
Carthage, that never wilt thou relax the hatred to the Romans thou
hast even now sworn by thy father’s sword. Never shalt thou, whilst
life lasts thee, cease to fight for thy native city, thy native country.
Look forth, my lad, upon all thou canst see now, and say, is it not a
fair domain? Let all that lies before thine eyes now sink down deep
into the innermost recesses of thy memory, for soon I shall take thee
hence; but I would not have thee, when far away, forget the sacred
city for whose very existence thou and I must fight. When thou hast
gazed thy fill upon all that lies before us, thou must perform thine
ablutions, arrange thy disordered dress, and then thou shalt
accompany me, not to see the sacrifice of the mercenaries in the pit
of fire before the brazen image of Moloch, but to make thy vow in the
temple of the invisible and all-pervading mighty essence of godhead,
the eternal Melcareth.”
 CHAPTER II.
CARTHAGE.

The terrible war, known as the inexpiable or the truceless war, was
just at an end, after three years’ duration. The mercenaries who had
served so faithfully under Hamilcar in Sicily had by the bad faith of
the Carthaginian Government, headed by Hamilcar’s greatest
enemy, Hanno, been driven to a revolt to try and recover the arrears
of pay due to them for noble services for years past. When the effete
Hanno, after a first slight success, had allowed his camp to be
captured, the Government, at the last gasp, had begged Hamilcar to
fight against his own old soldiers. For the sheer love of his country,
he had, although much against the grain, consented to do so. But
the towns of Utica, the oldest Phœnician town in Africa, and of Hippo
Zarytus were joining in the revolt; the Libyans and Numidians had
risen en masse to join the revolutionists, and the Libyan women,
having sold all their jewellery, of which they possessed large
quantities, for the sake of the revolted mercenaries, there was soon
so much money in the rebel camp that the very existence of
Carthage itself was at stake. Therefore, although Hamilcar well knew
that all the mercenaries, whether Libyans or Ligurians, Balearic
Islanders, Greeks, or Spaniards, were personally well disposed to
himself, he had been forced to take up arms against them.
Under Spendius, a Campanian slave, and Matho, an African in
whom they had formerly placed great trust, the rebels had gained
various successes, and, on visiting them in their camp, had
treacherously made prisoner of Gisco, a general in whom they had
previously expressed the greatest trust, and whom they had asked to
have sent to them with money to arrange their difficulties. Hamilcar
had been at first much hampered by his enemy, Hanno, an
effeminate wretch, being associated in the command with himself;
but when the Carthaginians found that, by leaving Hanno to hamper
Hamilcar, with all these well-trained soldiers against them, they had
got the knife held very close to their own luxurious throats, they
removed Hanno, and left the patriotic Hamilcar in supreme military
command. Their jealousies of him would not have allowed the
aristocracy and plutocracy to have done so much for the man whom
they had deserted for so long in Sicily had they not known their own
very existence to be at stake. For they ran the risk of being killed
both by the Libyans and mercenaries outside, and by the
discontented people inside the walls.
When Hamilcar assumed supreme command, the war had very
soon commenced to go the other way. He forced the easy, luxurious
Carthaginian nobles to become soldiers, and treated them as
roughly as if they had been slaves. And he made them fight. He got
elephants together; he made wonderful marches, dividing the
various rebel camps; he penned them up within their own fortified
lines. Many deserted and joined him; many prisoners whom he took
he released; a great African chief named Naravas came over to his
side. All was going well for Carthage when Spendius and Matho
mutilated and murdered the wretched General Gisco and his six
hundred followers in cold blood. After that no more of their followers
dared to leave them for fear of the terrible retaliation that they knew
awaited them. But how Spendius and all his camp were at length
penned up and reduced to cannibalism, eating all their prisoners and
slaves, how Spendius and his ten senators were taken and crucified,
while Matho, at the same time issuing from Tunis, took and crucified
a Carthaginian general and fifty of his men, and how at length, after
slaughtering or capturing the 30,000 or 40,000 remaining rebels,
Hamilcar took Matho himself prisoner, are all matters of history.
On the morning of the opening of our story, there was to be a
terrible sacrifice offered up to the great Baal Hammon, the sun god
Moloch, the Saturn of the Romans: the terrible monster to whom in
their hours of distress the Carthaginians were in the habit of offering
up at times their own babies, their first-born sons, or the fairest of
their virgins, whose cruel nuptials consisted not in being lighted with
the torch of Hymen, but in being placed bound upon the
outstretched, brazen, red-hot hands of the huge image, from whose
arms, which sloped downwards, they rolled down into the flaming
furnace at his feet. And fathers and mothers, sisters and brothers,
yea, even the very lovers of the girls, looked on complacently,
thinking that in thus sacrificing their dearest and their best to the
cruel god, they were consulting the best interests of their country in a
time of danger. Nor were the screams of the victims, many of whom
were self-offered, allowed to be heard, for the drums beat, the
priests chanted, and the beautiful young priestesses attached to the
temple danced in circles around, joining the sound of their voices
and their musical instruments to the crackling of the fire and the
rolling of the drums.
When Hamilcar bid his boy, Hannibal, look forth upon the city
before him, on the sea in front and behind him, and upon the country
around, it was a lovely morning in early summer. The weather was
not yet hot; there was a beautiful north-west breeze blowing down
the Carthaginian Gulf straight into the boy’s face, tossing up little
white horses on the surface of the sea, of which the white-flecked
foam shone like silver on its brilliantly green surface. Across the gulf,
upon whose bosom floated many a stately trireme and quinquireme,
to the east side arose a bold range of rugged mountains with steep,
serrated edges. Turning round yet further and facing the south, the
young Hannibal could see the same mountain range, dominated by a
steep, two-horned peak, sweeping round, but gradually bearing back
and so away from the shores of the shallow salt water lake then
known as the Stagnum, now called the Lake of Tunis. This lake was
separated, by the narrow strip of land called the Tœnia, from the
Sirius Carthaginensis, or Gulf of Carthage, upon the extremity of
which is now built the town of Goletta. There was in those days, as
now, a canal dividing this isthmus in two, and thus giving access for
ships to Tunis, a distance of ten miles from Carthage, at the far end
of the Tunisian lake.
Turning back again and looking to the north and north-west,
Hannibal saw stretching before him the whole noble City of
Carthage, of which his father’s palace formed one of the most
southern buildings within the sea wall. Close at hand were various
other palaces, with gardens well irrigated and producing every kind
of delicious fruit and beautiful flower to delight the palate or the eye.
Here waved in the breeze the feathery date palm, the oleander with
its wealth of pink blossom, the dark-green and shining pomegranate
tree with its glorious crimson flowers. Further, the fig, the peach tree,
the orange, the lemon, and the narrow-leaved pepper tree gave
umbrageous shelter to the winding garden walks. Over the
cunningly-devised summer-houses hung great clusters of blue
convolvulus or the purple bourgainvillia, while along the borders of
plots of vines gleaming with brilliant verdure, clustered, waist-high,
crimson geraniums and roses in the richest profusion. Between
these palaces lay stretched out the double harbour for the merchant
ships and war ships, a canal forming the entrance to the one, and
both being connected with each other. The harbour for the merchant
ships was oblong in shape, and was within a stone’s throw of the
balcony upon which the boy was standing. The inner harbour was
perfectly circular, and surrounded by a fortification; and around its
circumference were one hundred and twenty sets of docks, the gates
of each of which were adorned with beautiful Ionic pillars of purest
marble.
In the centre of this cup, or cothon as it was called, there was an
island, upon which was reared a stately marble residence for the
admiral in charge of the dockyards, and numerous workshops for the
shipwrights. All were designed and built with a view to beauty as well
as utility.
For that day only, the clang of hammers had ceased to be heard,
and all was still in the dockyards, for there was high holiday and
festival throughout the whole length and breadth of the City of
Carthage on the glad occasion of the intended execution, by fire, of
Matho and the remaining rebels who had not fallen by the sword in
the last fight at Tunis.
Just beyond the war harbour, there was a large open place called
the Agora, and a little beyond and to the left of it Hannibal could
descry the Forum placed on a slight elevation. It was a noble
building, surrounded by a stately colonnade of pillars, the capitals of
which were ornamented in the strictly Carthaginian style, which
seemed to combine the acanthus plant decoration of the Corinthian
capital, with the ram’s horn curves of the Ionic style. Between the
pillars there stood the most beautiful works of art, statues of Parian
marble ravished in the Sicilian wars, or gilded figures of cunning
workmanship of Apollo, Neptune, or the Goddess Artemis, being the
spoils of Macedon or imported from Tyre. The roof of the Forum was
constructed of beautiful cedar beams from Lebanon, sent as a
present by the rulers of Tyre to their daughter city, and no pains or
expense had been spared to make the noble building, if not equal in
grandeur, at any rate only second in its glorious manufacture to the
magnificent temple of Solomon, itself constructed for the great king
by Tyrian and Sidonian workmen.
A couple of miles away to the left could be seen the enormous
triple fortification stretching across the level isthmus which
connected Carthage, its heights and promontories, with the
mainland. This wall enclosed the Megara or suburbs, rich with the
country houses of the wealthy merchant princes. It was forty-five feet
high, and its vaulted foundations afforded stabling for a vast number
of elephants. It reached from sea to sea, and completely protected
Carthage on the land side. Between the city proper and this wall
beyond the Megara, everywhere could be seen groves of olive trees
in richest profusion, while between them and the frequent intervening
palaces, were to be observed either waving fields of ripening golden
corn, or carefully cultivated vegetable gardens, well supplied with
running streams of water from the great aqueduct which brought the
water to the city from the mountains of Zaghouan sixty miles away.
To the north of the Forum and beyond the Great Place, the city
stretched upwards, the width of the city proper, between the sea and
the suburbs, being only about a mile or a mile and a half. It sloped
upwards to the summit of the hill of the Byrsa or Citadel, hence the
boy Hannibal, from his position on the sea level in rear of the
harbours, was able to take in, not only the whole magnificent coup
d’œil of palaces and temples, but also that of the high and
precipitous hill forming Cape Carthage, which lay beyond it to the
north, whose curved and precipitous cliffs enclosed on the eastern
side a glittering bay, wherein were anchored many vessels of
merchandise.
The summit of this mountain was, like the suburbs of the Megara
to the west of the city, studded with the rich country dwellings of the
luxurious and ease-loving inhabitants of Carthage.
But it was not on the distant suburbs that the lad fixed his eager
gaze, it was on the gleaming city of palaces itself. Here, close at
hand on the right, he could see the temple of Apollo with its great