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Land Use–Transport
Interaction Models
Land Use–Transport
Interaction Models
by
Rubén Cordera
Ángel Ibeas
Luigi dell’Olio
Borja Alonso
CRC Press
Taylor & Francis Group
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Boca Raton, FL 33487-2742
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Chapter 3 The Nexus between Transport and Land Use: Accessibility .............25
Hugo González, Rubén Cordera and Ángel Ibeas
v
vi Contents
Chapter 8 Definition of the Model’s Purpose, the Study Area and the
Input Data ......................................................................................... 103
Rubén Cordera, Ángel Ibeas and Luigi dell’Olio
Chapter 9 Models for Simulating the Location of Population and Activities ... 119
Eneko Echaniz, Rubén Cordera and Luigi dell’Olio
vii
Editors
Dr. Rubén Cordera is a researcher in transport and land use interaction in the
Transportation Systems Research Group at the University of Cantabria, Cantabria,
Spain, from where he earned his PhD. His research focuses on land use–transport
interaction (LUTI) models, transport planning and spatial-econometric models that
are applied to transport and land use.
Dr. Ángel Ibeas is a professor of transport planning and director of the Transport
Systems Research Group at the University of Cantabria, Cantabria, Spain, from
where he earned his PhD. His research focuses on logistics, transit operation, travel
behaviour and intelligent transportation systems.
Dr. Luigi dell’Olio is a professor of transport planning and the head of the
Transportation Demand Modelling Division of the Transport Systems Research
Group at the University of Cantabria, Cantabria, Spain. He earned his PhD from
the University of Burgos, Burgos, Spain and his master of engineering from the
Technical University of Bari, Bari, Italy. His research focuses on transit operations
and planning, travel behaviour and land use and transport interaction models.
ix
Contributors
Gonzalo Antolin Sara Ezquerro
University of Cantabria University of Cantabria
Cantabria, Spain Cantabria, Spain
xi
Introduction
AN INTRODUCTION TO LAND USE–TRANSPORT
INTERACTION MODELS
The main reason for writing this book is to provide a theoretical as well as an applied
introduction to operational interaction models for land use and transport. The inter-
dependent relationship between the land use and transport is widely recognised in
the theoretical field and through applied experience. The configuration of transport
systems, made up of networks and flows, is heavily influenced by the distribution and
the characteristics of land use, be it residential, commercial or others. The demand
for transport comes from the need that people have to perform activities that are
physically separated in space. If, in an ideal world, all land uses and activities could
coincide at one point, then the demand for transport would be inexistent. It is the
need to move generated by the desire to carry out different activities at different
physical installations that explain the demand for transport (Rodrigue et al. 2013).
Transport can also condition the distribution, characteristics and growth of differ-
ent land uses, given that it modifies the accessibility conditions of different places
making up the urban space. It would appear reasonable to suppose that a highly
accessible location well served by the transport links would be a more attractive
location for companies to install commercial premises. Other highly accessible areas
for different types of opportunities (e.g. education, leisure) could be more attractive
for the development of other kinds of land use. So, changes made to the transport
system can have an influence on the land use system and vice versa, until equilibrium
is reached between the two. The urban system as a whole (a small city, a large city
and even an urban region) can be understood through simplified land use–transport
interaction (LUTI) modelling of aspects such as the interaction between the trans-
port and land use sub-systems, as shown in Figure I.1.
Land use
Trip
Accessibility production–
attraction
Transport
FIGURE I.1 Interaction between the transport and land use sub-systems.
xiii
xiv Introduction
• Land development, or the changes made to the urban form and the built
space.
• Location choices made by urban agents, mainly households and companies.
• The spatial pattern of activities through which households live their daily
lives: home, work, consume.
• The physical interaction of goods and services between companies and
between the companies and households.
As an analogy with the conceptualisation of transport, the land use sub-system may
be divided into a supply made up of built space (physical installations such as hous-
ing, commercial buildings, etc.) and a demand formed by the location choices made
by the urban agents during their daily activities.
The models presented in this book are abstract models providing a simplified
representation of the complex reality of urban systems through the use of math-
ematical equations. The different theoretical bases that form the nucleus of LUTI
models try to capture the fundamental relationships determining the logic behind
the urban systems and their response to different actions. These actions are gener-
ally related to urban policies and transport issues such as new housing developments,
new transport infrastructure or the introduction of new equipment. LUTI models try
to respond to common questions that emerge from research or practical application
in the field of planning (Martínez 2000): Under what circumstances do transport
projects induce urban development? Up to what point are location decisions made
by the urban agents influenced by the accessibility of places? How will the future
growth of an urban area be distributed? What proportion of the benefits generated
by a transport project increasing location accessibility is taken advantage of by land
owners and users?
LUTI models have traditionally been subjected to similar criticism to that
directed at the mathematical models used in the social sciences and especially in
urban and transport planning. Some of these criticisms have highlighted aspects
such as the need to collect large amount of data to feed the models with the inher-
ent complexity of the models, which sometimes makes them work similar to an
authentic black box, the need to program complicated algorithms, the high cost of
calibration and maintenance of the models and their inability to simulate highly
complex systems, for example, urban systems, leading to significantly erroneous
predictions. Contrary arguments have also appeared defending the use of models in
researching and planning urban systems, such as the need to use a coherent theoreti-
cal and explicit framework for analysing the repercussions of different actions and
the support that the models provided by imposing a certain discipline around a more
conscious and precise understanding about the workings of the reality being studied.
Furthermore, models are becoming increasingly cheaper to use and provide greater
Introduction xv
utility; thanks to the generalisation of easily accessible digital data, the continuing
improvements in computing speed and more efficient and better programming tech-
niques. Obviously, this book considers the latter arguments to be of greater weight
and will encourage the continuing research and application of mathematical models,
which allow us to understand and better predict the repercussions of applying differ-
ent policies in urban systems. Nevertheless, the reader should be aware that a LUTI
model is a tool to be applied by a professional or a team of professionals who should
understand their potential as well as their limitations if they are to be correctly used
and the results precisely interpreted. The intelligence of the model will definitely not
overtake the intelligence of the human group in charge of feeding it, running it and
interpreting its results.
the data is considered. Given the intense usage of strongly spatial data in LUTI
models, it is important to consider the possible presence of spatial dependence, that
is, the dependence between observations or between choice alternatives derived
from their greater similarity to the phenomena present in other points in space.
This spatial dependency is based on what is known as Tobler’s first law of geog-
raphy ‘everything is related to everything else, but near things are more related
than distant things’ (Tobler 1970). The consideration of this concept is of relevance
when estimating models fulfilling the statistical properties from which economet-
ric techniques such as multiple linear regression or discrete choice come. A more
detailed description of some of the more frequently used models in the field of
LUTI modelling adapted to the possible presence of spatial correlation in the data
is provided in Section IV: population and activity location models, hedonic regres-
sion models and trip generation models.
This book is targeted at the academic and the professional worlds interested in the
field of urban and transport modelling. Given the mathematical nature of the models
being presented, a certain degree of previous knowledge is required to fully under-
stand all the results. However, the text is of an introductory nature, so the models are
relatively simple and a basic knowledge of algebra and statistics should be enough
to understand them. Further reading is recommended and other books, which will
complement the present text on specific techniques such as discrete choice (Ben-
Akiva and Lerman 1985, Train 2009, Hensher et al. 2015), multiple linear regres-
sion (Gujarati and Porter 2009), transport modelling (Cascetta 2009, Ortúzar and
Willumsen 2011) or general urban planning (Weber and Crane 2012) are useful.
Older references that the reader may find valuable in understanding the field of LUTI
modelling are the works of Foot (1981) and Barra (1989). Both books are slightly out
of date but they are still useful in providing an introduction to modelling the interac-
tion between transport and land use.
REFERENCES
Barra, T. 1989. Integrated Land Use and Transport Modelling: Decision Chains and
Hierarchies, Cambridge Urban and Architectural Studies. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge
University Press.
Ben-Akiva, M. E. and Lerman, S. R. 1985. Discrete Choice Analysis: Theory and Application
to Travel Demand, Vol. 9. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.
Cascetta, E. 2009. Transportation Systems Analysis: Models and Applications, 2nd ed.
Springer Optimization and Its Applications. New York: Springer.
Foot, D. H. S. 1981. Operational Urban Models: An Introduction. London, UK: Methuen.
Goulias, K. G. 2003. Transportation Systems Planning: Methods and Applications, New
Directions in Civil Engineering. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
Gujarati, D. N. and Porter, D. C. 2009. Basic Econometrics, 5th ed. Boston, MA: McGraw-
Hill Irwin.
Hensher, D. A., Rose, J. M. and Greene, W. H. 2015. Applied Choice Analysis, 2nd ed.
Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
Martínez, F. J. 2000. Towards a land-use and transport interaction framework. In Handbook of
Transport Modelling, Hensher, D. A. and Button, K. J. (Ed.), pp. 145–164. Amsterdam,
the Netherlands: Elsevier Science.
10 Land Use–Transport Interaction Models
Timmermans, H. 2003. The saga of integrated land use-transport modeling: How many
more dreams before we wake up. Keynote paper, moving through nets: The physical
and social dimension of travel. 10th International Conference on Travel Behaviour
Research, Lucerna, Switzerland.
von Thünen, J. H. 1826. Der isolierte staat in beziehung auf landwirtschaft und nation-
aloekonomie. Jena, Germany: Gustaf Fisher. Translated by Wartenburg, C. M. (1966)
as The Isolated State. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Webster, F. V., Bly, P. H., Paulley, N. J., Brotchie, J. F. and International Study Group on
Land-Use/Transport Interaction. 1988. Urban Land-Use and Transport Interaction:
Policies and Models: Report of the International Study Group on Land-Use/Transport
Interaction (ISGLUTI). Aldershot, UK: Avebury.
Wegener, M. 1994. Operational urban models state of the art. Journal of the American
Planning Association 60 (1):17–29.
Wegener, M. 2004. Overview of land-use transport models. In Transport Geography and
Spatial Systems, David, A.H. and Kenneth, B. (Ed.), pp. 127–146. Kidlington, UK:
Elsevier.
Wegener, M. 2011. From macro to micro-how much micro is too much? Transport Reviews
31 (2):161–177.
Wilson, A. G. 1970. Entropy in Urban and Regional Modelling, Monographs in Spatial and
Environmental Systems Analysis 1. London, UK: Pion.
Williams, I. N. 1994. A model of london and the south east. Environment and Planning B:
Planning and Design 21 (5):535–553. doi:10.1068/b210535.
Zipf, G. K. 1949. Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort. Cambridge, MA:
Addison-Wesley.
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craft of war; and hath not the Prophet himself said, What is war but a
game of deception?’[497] ‘That is true,’ responded Aly, ‘but I will have
none of the aid that cometh from Muâvia.’ ‘Then,’ said Ibn Abbâs,
‘thou hadst better depart to thy property at Yenbó, and close the
gates of thy stronghold behind thee; for everywhere the Bedouins
are hounding along; and if thou makest the rest of the people thine
enemies, these will find thee alone, and will surely lay the blood of
Othmân at thy door.’ ‘Come,’ said Aly, trying another line, ‘thou shalt
go forth thyself to Syria. See, now, I have appointed thee.’ ‘That,’
replied Ibn Abbâs, ‘can never be. Muâvia would surely behead me or
cast me into prison because of Othmân’s death, and my being akin
to thee. Hearken to me, and make terms with him ere it be too late.’
But Aly turned a deaf ear to his appeal.[498] .
Acting on these wayward impulses, Aly
sent men of his own to replace the existing Aly appoints new governors
governors in the chief commands throughout the empire.
Moharram, a.h. XXXVI. July,
throughout the empire. In most places they a.d. 656.
met with but a sorry reception. At
Bussorah, Ibn Aámir, unwilling to provoke hostilities, retired, and his
successor, Othmân ibn Honeif, entered unopposed; but the faction
which clung to the memory of the late Caliph was as strong at
Bussorah as that which favoured Aly, while a third party waited to
see how the tide of public opinion might run at Medîna. In Egypt it
was much the same. Cays, appointed to the command, was a
singularly wise and able ruler; but he only succeeded in passing the
frontier garrison by feigning attachment to the cause of Othmân;
while a strong and aggressive faction occupied the district of
Kharanba, swearing that they would not submit until the regicides
were brought to justice. In Yemen, the new governor obtained
possession, but only after Yála, his predecessor, had carried off to
Mecca all the treasure. The governors-elect of Aly who attempted to
enter Kûfa and the province of Syria, met with a rough reception on
the border, and were fortunate in escaping with their lives back again
to Medîna.
Dispirited by these reports, Aly again took counsel with Talha and
Zobeir. The sedition, he said, which he had apprehended, was
already kindled, and would spread like
wildfire, catching whatever came in its way. Aly sends letters to Muâvia
‘Then,’ replied they, ‘let us depart, that we and Abu Mûsa.
may do thee service in the field.’ ‘Wait,’ answered Aly; ‘the cautery
must be the last resort.’ So he resolved, in the first instance, to
address letters to Muâvia, and also to Abu Mûsa at Kûfa, demanding
their allegiance. Abu Mûsa replied in loyal terms, but at the same
time bade the Caliph beware of the spirit of disaffection which in
Kûfa was rife around him. With Syria, all communication was cut off;
weeks elapsed, and there was no reply. In truth, a strange scene
was being enacted there.
Muâvia had no sooner received the
emblems of his Master’s murder—the gory Emblems of vengeance
shirt and Nâila’s mangled fingers—than he suspended
Damascus.
on the pulpit at
which Aly himself marched to Nejd.[509] But, although they used all
expedition on the road, they found on reaching Rabadza that the
insurgents had already passed. Not being equipped for further
advance, Aly halted at Dzu Câr. Messengers were sent to Kûfa,
Egypt, and elsewhere, demanding reinforcements; and for these the
Caliph waited, in his camp, before he ventured forwards.
To return to Ayesha. The insurgent
army, having resumed its march, reached The rebels attack Bussorah.
Bussorah, and encamped close by.
Messages were exchanged, and immediately on Ibn Honeif, the
governor, becoming aware that the cry of vengeance on the
regicides covered designs against his Master, he called together an
assembly to try the temper of the people. Finding from the uproar
that the strangers had a strong party in the city, he put on his armour,
and, followed by the larger portion of the citizens, went forth to meet
Ayesha, who, on her side, was joined from the town by the insurgent
faction. A parley ensued. Talha, the favourite at Bussorah, Zobeir,
and even Ayesha, with her shrill and powerful voice, declaimed
against the murderers of Othmân, and demanded justice. The other
side were equally loud in their protestations against the expedition. It
was a shame, they said, and a slight on the memory of the Prophet,
for Ayesha to forego the sanctity of the Veil, and the proprieties of
‘the Motherhood of the Faithful.’ Aly had been duly elected, and
saluted Caliph; and now Talha and Zobeir were treacherously
violating the allegiance which they had been the first to swear. These
both protested that the oath had been forced upon them. On this
point the controversy turned; and from words they fell to blows. Night
interposed; but fighting was resumed the following day, and with so
serious a loss to the loyalists that a truce was called, and an
agreement come to, on the understanding that the facts should be
ascertained from Medîna. If it were shown
that force had been put upon the two Reference to Medîna on
leaders to take the oath, then Ibn Honeif question of compulsion.
would retire leave the city in their hands. An envoy accredited by
either side was accordingly deputed to Medîna. He arrived while Aly
was absent in his camp, and forthwith proclaimed the commission he
was charged with, before the assembled city. The people at first
were silent. At last Osâma ibn Zeid, a Companion of the highest
rank,[510] declared that both Talha and Zobeir had done homage
under compulsion, whereupon a great tumult arose; and the envoy,
having seen and heard enough to prove diversity of opinion on the
subject, took his leave.
When tidings of these things reached
Aly, who was with his army in Nejd, he Fighting at Bussorah. City
addressed a letter to Ibn Honeif: ‘There occupied
Talha.
by Zobeir and