Contents

1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 1
2. Objectives............................................................................................................................................ 3
3. Study Area ........................................................................................................................................... 3
4. Data and Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 4
Sources of Data ....................................................................................................................................... 4
Analytical Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 5
5.Possible Outcome ................................................................................................................................ 5
6.References ........................................................................................................................................... 5

Figure 1 The geographical location of the Coastal regions of Bangladesh ............................................. 3

Figure 2 Methodology of the study ........................................................................................................ 5

An analysis of the correlation between

ENSO Index and summer monsoon
rainfall patterns in the coastal region of
Bangladesh
1. Introduction
In Bangladesh, the summer monsoon, which lasts from June to mid-October, corresponds with the
rainy season. Bangladesh is primarily an agricultural country, receiving most of its yearly rainfall
during the summer monsoon. In this low-lying coastal nation, even a slight variation in the summer
monsoon can have a significant effect on the productivity of agriculture, weather, climate, marine
ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems and economies, management of water supplies, hydropower
generation, forests, industry, health, daily life, infrastructure, and livelihoods of several million
people. In Bangladesh's coastal regions, excessive rainfall can cause flooding, while insufficient
rainfall can result in drought conditions that negatively impact agriculture and water availability. To
improve seasonal rainfall forecasts and mitigate its effects, a fuller understanding of the intricate link
between El Niño and rainfall patterns is essential. Authorities can better plan for and implement
evacuation procedures by issuing early warnings of impending floods or droughts by knowing the
relationship between ENSO phases and fluctuations in rainfall. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO) climatic cycle is measured by the ENSO Index, also known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
Index. Global weather and climate patterns can be influenced by ENSO, a naturally occurring
variation in the tropical Pacific Ocean's air pressure and sea surface temperature. Prioritizing
resource allocation for disaster relief and mitigation activities is made easier for government
agencies and international organizations by knowing the likelihood of extreme weather events.
Given the predicted intensification of weather patterns due to global climate change, it is even more
important to comprehend how ENSO affects rainfall. Future rainfall patterns and extreme weather
events may be predicted, allowing local communities and politicians to create effective adaptation
plans that will guarantee long-term resilience. By addressing the unique vulnerabilities of places like
Bangladesh, research on the effects of ENSO in Bangladesh might help national and international
climate policy be more effective in reducing the effects of climate change. El Niño tends to diminish
the Walker circulation, which in turn weakens the summer monsoon circulation and lessens the
strength of easterly winds along the Himalayan foothills of Bangladesh. After then, a lower-level
anomalous cyclonic circulation forms, which makes it easier for moisture in the boundary layer to
congregate. El Niño then causes an increase in rainfall over Bangladesh and the neighbouring areas.
(Ehsan et al., 2023).

A few articles discuss the potential connection between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in
Bangladesh and summer monsoon rainfall. A statistical analysis of all-Bangladesh summer monsoon
rainfall data from 15 meteorological stations under BMD and ENSO Index data from the US National
Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for the period 1951–2010 reveals that the rainfall
increased at a very slow rate of 0.2073 mm per year over the 60-year period. This study is based on
previous research. Over a 60-year period, it exhibits inter annual changes at a rate of -0.027 per year
with a slowly declining trend (Ahmed et al., 2016).The relationship between the Bangladesh
Summer Monsoon Rainfall (BSMR) and ENSO is examined in a paper (Ehsan et al., 2023) using a new
41-year (1981 to 2021) high resolution gridded rainfall dataset (ENACTS-BMD; Enhancing National
Climate Services for Bangladesh Meteorological Department), version 5 dataset. This study makes
use of seasonal prediction data from two models: "European Centre for Medium-Range Weather
Forecast (ECMWF) seasonal forecast system 5 SEAS5 (25 members: 1981 to 2021: 41-years)" and
"CanSIPS-IC3 (Lin et al. 2020) (20-members: 1981 to 2020: 40-years)". In the central-eastern
(Niño3.4) Pacific, observed BSMR has a slight positive connection (r= +0.21, not statistically
significant at the 5% level) with sea surface temperatures (SST).The variability, trends, and
relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh and ENSO are examined in a paper
(Wahiduzzaman, 2012). The rainfall data for thirty specially chosen rain gauge sites in Bangladesh
were utilized for a 47-year period (1961–2007) and were obtained from the Bangladesh
Meteorological Department (BMD). The ENSO data were retrieved from Golden Gate Weather
Services, Canada's website. Several statistical factors are used to analyse the data. The study's main
conclusions are that Bangladesh's mean monthly rainfall exhibits a unimodal pattern year-round,
peaking in July (20%) and toughing out in January (0.36%). The monsoon season (70.69%) sees the
most rainfall. Pre-monsoon rainfall contributes for 18.94% of total rainfall, while post-monsoon
rainfall accounts for 8.94%. The revised rainfall data for 30 randomly chosen rain gauge sites in
Bangladesh spanning 50 years (1961–2010) were utilized in a publication by (Ahasan et al., 1970).
The purpose of the data analysis was to look at the trends and variability of Bangladesh's summer
monsoon rainfall, which occurs from June to September. Research has also been done on the
potential teleconnection between monsoon rainfall variability and ENSO. Research indicates that
ENSO has a significant influence on the subcontinental monsoon system, but with a less correlation
in Bangladesh.
But none of them has looked into these relationships in a monthly and a quantitative manner in the
coastal region of Bangladesh. The present work a detailed study has been made in order to find
possible correlations between ENSO and the summer monsoon rainfall patterns for a period of
(1980-2023) in the coastal region of Bangladesh.

2. Objectives
The main objective of the present study is

 To find out possible correlation between ENSO Index and summer monsoon rainfall patterns
in the coastal region of Bangladesh for the period of 1983-2023.
 To explore ENSO and rainfall variability in the coastal region of Bangladesh.

3. Study Area
Bangladesh's coastline region is situated along the Bay of Bengal in the southern portion of the
nation. It extends from Cox's Bazar in the east to the Sundarbans in the west. The coastal zone is
located between latitudes 20°N and 26°N and longitudes 88°E and 92°E. Myanmar borders the
coastal region to the east, while India borders it to the west. It is located south of the delta formed
by the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. The coastal region is to the south of the Bay of Bengal.

Figure 1 The geographical location of the Coastal regions of Bangladesh

4. Data and Methodology

Sources of Data

Data for the period of 1983-2023

Data Sources of data

Rainfall data Data are collected from 19 Coastal meteorological stations under the
Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) which represents a
very good sample size for the summer monsoon rainfall.
ENSO Index Multivariate El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO Index)
data for the period 1983–2023 are collected from (The US
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA),
2023). However, ENSO Index data for the months of June
through October, coinciding with the summer monsoon season
in Bangladesh, were used in this study.
Table 1 Sources of data used to the study

In this study, the stations that have recorded data since 1983, which represents a very good sample
size Monsoon rainfall data. The location of these stations are shown in figure 1. ENSO Index data for
the months of June through October, coinciding with the summer monsoon season in Bangladesh,
were used in this study.
Analytical Methodology

Time series summer monsoon rainfall Time series Multivariate ENSO Index
data (From Coastal Meteorological (From The US NOAA)
Stations under BMD)

Summer monsoon rainfall

(Jun, Jul, Aug, Sep, Oct)

Input in IBM SPSS

Pearson’s Correlation

Independent variable (ENSO Index) Dependent variable (Rainfall)

Result

Information

Input Process Tool Method Output

Figure 2 Methodology of the study

Time series of the summer monsoon rainfall data and the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation Index (ENSO
Index) was plotted for the periods of 1983– 2023. Pearson’s correlation method is used to find out
correlation between the ENSO Index (independent variable) and the Summer monsoon rainfall
(dependent) for the period of 1983-2023 in the coastal region of Bangladesh by using IBM SPSS
(Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) tool.

5.Possible Outcome
 During El Niño years, positive ENSO Index values often lead to above-average
rainfall in the coastal region of Bangladesh.
 During La Niña years, negative ENSO Index values tend to correlate with below-
average rainfall in the coastal regions Bangladesh.

6.References
Ahasan, M., Chowdhary, M. A., & Quadir, D. (1970). Variability and Trends of Summer Monsoon
Rainfall over Bangladesh. Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, 7(1), 1–17.
https://doi.org/10.3126/jhm.v7i1.5612
Ahmed, R., Alam, M. S., & Rahman, M. M. (2016). Long-Term Trend of the All-Bangladesh Summer
 Monsoon Rainfall, and its Association with the ENSO Index. Journal of Environment and Earth
Science, 6(4), 88–94. https://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/JEES/article/view/30036
Ehsan, M. A., Tippett, M. K., Robertson, A. W., Singh, B., & Rahman, M. A. (2023). The ENSO
Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall. Earth Systems and Environment,
0123456789. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00347-z
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). (2023).
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/
Wahiduzzaman, M. (2012). ENSO connection with monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh. Intl. J. of
Applied Physics and Engineering, Vol-1(2), 26–38.