Earth Systems and Environment

https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-023-00347-z

ORIGINAL ARTICLE

The ENSO Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Muhammad Azhar Ehsan1 · Michael K. Tippett2 · Andrew W. Robertson1 · Bohar Singh1 ·
Muhammad Ashfaqur Rahman3

Received: 3 January 2023 / Revised: 25 May 2023 / Accepted: 26 May 2023

© The Author(s) 2023

Abstract
In South Asia (SA), the boreal summer monsoon (June to September; JJAS) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
are connected, though different areas in SA respond differently to ENSO. In this paper, a new 41-year (1981 to 2021) high-
resolution gridded rainfall dataset (ENACTS-BMD; Enhancing National Climate Services for Bangladesh Meteorological
Department) is used to investigate the linkage between the Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall (BSMR) and ENSO.
Observed BSMR shows a weak positive correlation (r =  + 0.21, not statistically significant at the 5% level) with sea sur-
face temperatures (SST) in the central-eastern (Niño3.4) Pacific region. Among the eight El Niño events, seven of them
corresponded to above-normal BSMR. However, during the 11 La Niña events, the relationship was more varied, with
above-normal BSMR occurring in seven instances. These findings highlight an asymmetric relationship between BSMR
and ENSO. Furthermore, BSMR is negatively correlated (r =  − 0.47 statistically significant at the 5% level) with Indian
Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR: 75°–85oE, 18°–30oN). The potential physical mechanism can be outlined as follows:
during El Niño, the Walker circulation tends to be weakened, resulting in a weakening of the summer monsoon circulation,
which in turn reduces the intensity of easterly winds along the Bangladesh Himalayan foothills. Subsequently, a lower-level
anomalous cyclonic circulation is established, facilitating the convergence of moisture within the boundary layer. This, in
turn, leads to intensified rainfall over Bangladesh and the surrounding regions during El Niño. Seasonal forecast models
do not adequately capture BSMR and ENSO, BSMR and circulation, and BSMR and ISMR inverse correlations. While the
observed BSMR-ENSO relationship is complex and teleconnections are weak, awareness of the inverse relationship with
ISMR and the incorrect model behavior could be useful in the context of seasonal BSMR predictions.

Keywords Bangladesh · Monsoon · BSMR · ISMR · ENSO · ECMWF-SEAS5 · CanSIPS-IC3

1 Introduction inundations during the summer monsoon are a distinc-

The boreal summer monsoon (June to September; JJAS),
characterized by southerly-southwesterly winds and deep
moisture content, usually brings a torrent of heavy rains
across South Asia, particularly over Bangladesh. Frequent
* Muhammad Azhar Ehsan
azhar@iri.columbia.edu
1
International Research Institute for Climate and Society,
Columbia Climate School at Columbia University, Palisades,
NY, USA
2
Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics,
Columbia University, New York, USA
3
Climate Modeling and Future Projections,
Dept. of Meteorology, University of Dhaka, Dhaka,
Bangladesh
tive feature of the climate of Bangladesh and also a major
concern to the stakeholders and policymakers in the coun-
try, which is now among the fastest-growing economies
(https://​www.​world​bank.​org/​en/​count​ry/​bangl​adesh) in the
world over the past decade. Two recent examples are the
intense flooding that occurred during the summer of 2015
when several dozen people died in floods and landslides
triggered by heavy rains, and the deadly floods and land-
slides in the Cox Bazar District during the summer of 2021
that damaged the shelters for nearly one million Rohingya
refugees (the world's largest refugee settlement) (https://​
flood​l ist.​c om/​a sia). A slight variation in the summer
monsoon rainfall can have colossal impacts on infrastruc-
ture, agriculture production, water supply management,
hydropower generation, fisheries, industry, health, daily
human lives, and livelihoods of several million people

13
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living in this low-lying coastal country. Given the expo-
sure of almost the entire population (Coirolom et al. 2013)
of Bangladesh to summer monsoon rainfall, identifying
factors that modulate it, e.g., the El Niño-Southern Oscil-
lation (ENSO; the largest mode of variability at interan-
nual time-scales) and using that information to improve
forecasts of Bangladesh monsoon variability on seasonal
timescales is an issue of considerable urgency.
Many South Asian countries receive a substantial frac-
tion of their annual rainfall during a span of 4 months
from June to September (Webster and Yang 1992; Ehsan
et al. 2021; Attada et al. 2022). As a first approximation,
the boreal summer monsoon over the Indian landmass
is often considered a proxy for the entire South Asian
monsoon. A plethora of studies have sought a relation-
ship between summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia
and the remote and local sea-surface temperature (SST)
anomalies in different oceanic basins (Rasmusson and
Carpenter 1983; Shukla 1987; Annamalai et al. 2007;
Kucharski et al. 2009; Roxy et al. 2015; Venugopal et al.
2018; Kirtman and Shukla 2000; Sharma et al. 2021).
For instance, on the interannual timescale, positive SST
anomalies in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific related
to ENSO bring below-normal rainfall over India. In con-
trast, below-average SST anomalies associated with La
Niña conditions are usually accompanied by above-normal
precipitation amounts (Ju and Slingo 1995; Kripalani and
Kulkarni 1999; Goswami and Xavier 2005). However, the
strength of the relationship between summer monsoon
rainfall in different parts of South Asia and ENSO under-
goes alternate increases and decreases on decadal time
scales (Kumar et al. 1999, 2006). In addition to ENSO,
SST anomalies in the tropical Indian (Webster et al. 1999;
Cherchi et al. 2007) and Atlantic (Borah et al. 2020; Yadav
et al. 2018) Oceans, as well as other factors (Boos and
Kuang 2010; Turner et al. 2012) also have a substantial
impact on the summer monsoon rainfall over South Asia.
While considerable attention has been devoted to explor-
ing the interactions between the summer monsoon rainfall
across South Asia, particularly over India (the largest coun-
try in terms of area, population, and economy in South Asia)
and SSTs as described above, little attention has been given
to understanding the relationships between SSTs and sum-
mer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh (Singh et al. 2000;
Wahiduzzaman and Luo 2021), and its impacts (Banu et al.
2015; Cash et al. 2010). To this end, we address the need
for a more rigorous investigation of the ENSO and BSMR
relationship. It has been demonstrated that there is a weak
positive correlation between BSMR and SSTs in the tropical
Pacific, while there is an inverse relationship between BSMR
and ISMR based on observations. The initialized seasonal
forecast models are incapable of replicating these observed
connections.
13
M. A. Ehsan et al.
2 Data and Methodology
2.1 Datasets (Observations and Models)
The observed sea surface temperature (SSTs) is from
NOAA Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature
(ERSST), version 5 dataset (Huang et al. 2017), which
is also used to define the warm and cold episodes of his-
torical ENSO events during 1981 to 2021. The precipita-
tion data is from Bangladesh ENACTS (ENACTS-BMD:
the Enhancing National Climate Services for Bangla-
desh Meteorological Department: BMD) datasets for
1981–2021. The ENACTS initiative led by the Interna-
tional Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI),
Columbia University, in collaboration with National
Meteorological Services has been targeted for the provi-
sion of high-quality climate data in different countries.
An open-source, R-based software, developed and main-
tained (for data organization, quality control, combining
station data with other products) at IRI namely Climate
Data Tool (CDT) is used to construct ENACTS in different
countries (Dinku et al. 2022). EANCTS-BMD is a product
of such cooperation between IRI and BMD. This gridded
high-resolution high-quality dataset (0.05° × 0.05°) covers
the whole of Bangladesh and was constructed by merg-
ing station and satellite products (Acharya et al. 2020). In
order to investigate the relationship between BSMR and
summer monsoon over India we also utilized the rainfall
data, created and managed by the Indian Meteorologi-
cal Department (Pai et al. 2014). The data were directly
downloaded from their website (https://​www.​imdpu​ne.​gov.​
in/). We also utilize other precipitation products, including
Climatologies at High resolution for the Earth's Land Sur-
face Areas (CHELSA) 1981 to 2018 (Karger et al. 2017),
and Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with
Station data (CHIRPS) 1981 to 2021 (Funk et al. 2015).
Observed lower-level (850 hPa) horizontal (U850), meridi-
onal (V850) winds, and vertically integrated moisture
divergence (VimD) used in this research is obtained from
the fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalysis
dataset (Hersbach et al. 2020).
Seasonal forecast data from two models ‘CanSIPS-IC3
(Lin et al. 2020) (20-members: 1981 to 2020: 40-years)’,
and ‘European Center for Medium-Range Weather Fore-
cast (ECMWF) seasonal forecast system 5 SEAS5 (John-
son et al. 2019) (25 members: 1981 to 2021: 41-years)’
is utilized in this study. SEAS5 have different ensemble
sizes in hindcasts and forecast (25 members in hindcast
and 51 in forecasts). However, we use an ensemble size
common to the hindcast period. Recently, there have also
been studies (Ehsan et al. 2020a, 2020b) on the prediction
of boreal summer monsoon rainfall using these seasonal
Published in partnership with CECCR at King Abdulaziz University
The ENSO Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall
forecasts models. The ensemble mean data for SST, pre-
cipitation, and winds (zonal and meridional components)
at 850 hPa at Lead-1 month forecast from these models are
obtained from the Data Library of the IRI at the following
link: (https://​iridl.​ldeo.​colum​bia.​edu/). For details about
individual model configurations and forecasting perfor-
mance, readers are encouraged to consult the reference
papers cited above.
2.2 Methods
The climatological based (WMO 2017) period considered in
this study is from 1991 to 2020. The anomalies for observa-
tion and models (Ensemble mean considered for each start
and target (always Lead-1 month) month and season) are cal-
culated by subtracting the 1991 to 2020 climatology. Unless
stated otherwise, all the precipitation time series (observed
and model) represent the spatially averaged values over the
Bangladesh country mask, while the Indian Summer Mon-
soon Rainfall is spatially averaged over 75°–85oE, 18°–30oN.
Tests employed for statistical significance are t-test for cor-
relation and composites (Wilks 2006) at alpha = 0.05.
2.3 Identification of ENSO Events
Warm and cold ENSO events during June to September
1981–2021 are identified based on a JJAS exceedance of SST
anomalies in the Niño3.4 region (5°S-5°N, 190°E–240°E)
relative to a 1991–2020 climatology. Warm/El Niño years
are defined when the Niño3.4 index exceeds + 0.5 °C. Sim-
ilarly, cold/ La Niña years are defined when the Niño3.4
index must be − 0.5 °C or less. We selected 8 warm and
11 cold events based on this criterion, while the rest are
considered ENSO-neutral years. A summary of warm and
cold ENSO events for JJAS during 1981–2021 is presented
in Table 2.
3 Results
3.1 Annual Cycle of Bangladesh Rainfall
in ENACTS‑BMD
The monthly climatology of rainfall over Bangladesh are pre-
sented using newly constructed high-resolution ENACTS-
BMD data (See Data Section) during 1991–2020 (30 years
period). Bangladesh is an extremely wet country in South
Asia, receiving a substantial amount of rainfall (~ 2200 mm
of rainfall per year or even more) across the country in a
given year. However, the rainfall magnitude and distribution
across time and space (East–West and North–South rainfall
gradient) is extremely heterogeneous in Bangladesh. First,
intense rainfall usually occurs during the boreal summer
Published in partnership with CECCR at King Abdulaziz University
months. Second, the northern and southern territories in
the eastern side of the country receive even more rainfall
as compared to western and other regions, before (March
to May), during (June to September) and after (October and
November) the monsoon. December to February is consid-
ered the dry season (rainfall is less than 1 mm/day) across
the country (see supplementary Fig. S1).
We also analyze the annual cycle of the monthly precipi-
tation fraction of the annual total across the whole country
(Fig. 1). The monthly precipitation data for Bangladesh have
been extracted from the ENACTS-BMD data set. The annual
cycle of Bangladesh rainfall is dominated by the intense
summer monsoon rains that happen from June to Septem-
ber. However, as noted in the monthly rainfall climatology
(Supplementary Fig. S1), pre- and post-monsoon months
also provide nearly 20–25% to the total annual rainfall. In
contrast, contribution during the winter months is almost
negligible. The rainfall in Bangladesh peaks during boreal
summer and contributes about 70–80% of the annual rain-
fall during JJAS. Therefore, most of the intense flooding in
Bangladesh is typically related to active and consistent rain-
fall during boreal summer, which causes damages to lives
and property during these times of the year.
3.2 BSMR‑ENSO Relationship in Observations
In the present study, the 4-month wet season average
(June to September) of the Bangladesh country averaged
precipitation is used as a reference time series. This time
series is normalized (divided by the standard deviation for
1991–2020) and is denoted as the Bangladesh Summer
Monsoon Rainfall (BSMR) Index shown in Fig. 2a. We
examined the relationship between the BSMR time series
and global sea-surface temperature anomalies during JJAS.
Fig. 1  Observed monthly rainfall over Bangladesh. Monthly pre-
cipitation as a percentage of annual total over Bangladesh landmass
(country average) based on the 1991–2020 period, using ENACTS-
BMD (see text) gridded data from Bangladesh Meteorological
Department. The red dot indicates the average monthly precipitation
fraction
13
 M. A. Ehsan et al.

Table 1  Correlation and 95% confidence interval (CI), based on 1981–2021 (41-years), between Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall (BSMR) and Niño-3.4 SST index during monthly (Jan-

− 0.1 to 0.49
JJAS

0.21
− 0.34 to
− 0.04

0.27
Dec

− 0.33 to
− 0.02

0.29
Nov

− 0.26 to
0.35
0.06
Oct

− 0.14 to
0.46
0.18
Sep

− 0.0 to
0.50
0.22
Aug

− 0.1 to
0.49
0.21
Jul
Dec), and four-month (JJAS: Jun to Sep) periods prior to and simultaneous with the BSMR

− 0.18 to
0.43
0.14
Jun

− 0.21 to
0.4
May

0.10
− 0.24 to
0.37
0.07
Apr

Fig. 2  Observed BSMR variability, and teleconnections. a The time

series of the spatially averaged JJAS (BSMR) rainfall over Bangla-
desh. b The simultaneous correlation between BSMR and global
− 0.24 to

SSTs anomalies. c The 850-mb winds from ERA5 regressed on

0.37

BSMR (ENACTS). The anomalous westerlies along the foot hill of

0.07
Mar

Himalayas (northwest Indian region and Nepal) are evident. In (b),

and (c) the black dotted points/arrows show correlation/regression
coefficients that is statistically significant at the 5% level. The analy-
− 0.23 to

sis period is from 1981–2021

0.38
0.08
Feb

Figure 2b shows the simultaneous correlation of BSMR

95% CI − 0.21 to

with the JJAS SST anomalies across the globe. A weak

0.38

positive correlation coefficient is found in the central-east-

0.08
Jan

ern equatorial Pacific region. To explain further, the Niño-

3.4 index, which is the SST averaged for the domain of
Corr

5°S–5°N, 190°E–240°E, is constructed. Table 1 illustrates

13 Published in partnership with CECCR at King Abdulaziz University

The ENSO Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall
the correlation and 95% confidence interval between the
two-time series from 1981–2021, keying Niño-3.4 index
for individual months (January to December), and concur-
rent to BSMR. The association of BSMR with ENSO in
the starting month is near-zero and increases gradually as
the ENSO state approaches the beginning of the summer
monsoon season. Weak positive correlations are found
between BSMR and Niño-3.4 SST occurring nearly simul-
taneously during summer months (June = 0.14, July = 0.21,
August = 0.22, September = 0.18, JJAS = 0.21). Further-
more, the correlation with BSMR is virtually unchanged if
Niño-3.4 is replaced by the Niño-3 (r = 0.23), moderately
positive in case of Niño-1 + 2 (r = 0.27) and very weak in
case of Niño-4 (r = 0.07), which shows that the far east-
ern and central-eastern Pacific SSTs are more impactful
as compared to western Pacific SSTs. In further analysis,
however, we considered Niño-3.4 index for representing
the ENSO state. To investigate this issue further concern-
ing data sensitivity, we employed an ensemble of different
observation datasets (see data for details), and prepared
a similar correlation table (see supplementary table S1)
between BSMR from other precipitation datasets and the
Niño-3.4 index. For the purposes of this analysis, datasets
were required to span at least 35 years and also of high-
quality, high spatial resolution product like ENACTS-
BMD. Based on the analysis conducted, it can be inferred
that the positive association between BSMR-ENSO is not
limited to the ENACTS-BMD data alone, but is also evi-
dent in various other datasets of similar nature, as indi-
cated by the positive correlations observed across them.
Figure 2c, shows the regression of the 850 hPa winds
anomalies against the BSMR. From the analysis shown
in Fig. 2c, it is evident that there are anomalous west-
erlies present along the foothills of the Himalayas, and
an anomalous cyclonic circulation at the lower level over
Bangladesh.
Bangladesh's JJAS rainfall differs from one year to
another year. Figure 3 shows countrywide BSMR relative
to the recent long-term mean (1991–2020). The El Niño and
La Niña years, denoted by red and blue stars respectively
(refer to method section), have been listed in Table 2. Over
the period 1981–2021, Bangladesh's summer monsoon pre-
cipitation is consistent from one El Niño event to another:
above-average JJAS precipitation was observed during 7 of
the 8 El Niño events, including the top two extreme summer
monsoon seasons on record, during the strong El Niños of
1987, and 2015. However, slightly below-average BSMR
happened during the weak warm event of 2009. Considering
the cold ENSO episodes (Fig. 3: blue stars), above-average
JJAS Bangladesh precipitation was observed during 7 of the
11 La Niña events. Furthermore, these results are in accord-
ance with prior research indicating an increase in summer
monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh during the warm phase
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Fig. 3  BSMR, relationship with ENSO. Observed BSMR relative
to the long-term mean (1991–2020). Red and blue asterisk denotes
warm and cold ENSO events. El Niño years tend to be wetter than
average (7 out of 8), La Niña showed mixed signal. Two El Niño
years that are nearly 3 decades apart (1987 and 2015) produced
extreme BSMR (~ 2 × 𝜎 : standard deviation). ENACTS-BMD pre-
cipitation data is used to estimate BSMR. See text for details about
ENACTS-BMD data
of ENSO (e.g., Chowdhury 2003; Wahiduzzaman and Luo
2021). This also demonstrates that the association between
BSMR and ENSO is asymmetric.
Although these findings suggest a weak and statisti-
cally insignificant positive association between BSMR
and ENSO, further investigation is necessary to determine
whether this association influences the representation of
seasonal monsoon circulation. Table 2 presents the Niño-
3.4 index value in JJAS for the warm and cold ENSO years
during the period. A total of eight (8) warm and eleven
(11) cold events are outlined in Table 2, along with their
SST anomaly values. Composite anomalies for sea surface
temperature, 850 hPa winds, precipitation, and vertically
integrated moisture divergence are shown in Fig. 4. White
stippling indicates the statistically significant (5% level) val-
ues. A prominent feature of warm (cold) ENSO composites
is positive (negative) SST anomalies pattern in the central-
equatorial Pacific. It is evident from Fig. 4a and 4b, that the
magnitude of SST anomalies is higher for warm composites
than for cold composites.
As a component of our analysis of the impact of warm
and cold SST composites across the South Asian region as
a whole, and particularly over Bangladesh, we investigated
the lower-level circulation. It is probable that discrepancies
in the monsoonal circulation can result in dissimilarities
in precipitation patterns during the South Asian summer
monsoon. The warm ENSO composites have resulted in
a weakening of the monsoon circulation (as illustrated by
vectors in Fig. 4c) and a decrease in moisture content (as
indicated by shading in Fig. 4e) over the Indian landmass.
Conversely, the cold ENSO composites indicate a strength-
ening of the lower-level summer monsoon circulation
13

Table 2  List of El Niño/warm (08 Events) and La Niña/cold (11 events) ENSO events happening in JJAS during 1981 to 2021. The JJAS Niño
3.4 index anomaly is shown in parentheses. The ERSSTv5 data and 1991 to 2020 normal period is used to compute anomalies
Category Events year with anomaly
Warm 1982 (0.78), 1987 (1.36), 1991 (0.60), 1997 (1.67), 2002 (0.86), 2004 (0.55), 2009 (0.52), 2015 (1.70)
Cold 1984 (− 0.5), 1985 (− 0.73), 1988 (− 1.42), 1989 (− 0.50), 1998 (− 0.98), 1999 (− 1.17), 2000
(− 0.62), 2007 (− 0.69), 2010 (− 1.19), 2011 (− 0.57), 2020 (− 0.52)
(illustrated in Fig. 4d by vectors) and an increase in mois-
ture content (as displayed in Fig. 4f by shading) over India.
However, it is worth noting that in Bangladesh, there is
a noticeable upsurge in moisture as well as precipitation
during warm ENSO composites (as shown in the inset of
Fig. 4c), which is significantly greater than during cold
ENSO composites (as displayed in the inset of Fig. 4d).
These findings are consistent with previous studies that
have demonstrated a weakening of the walker circulation
during the summer monsoon, associated with El Niño,
which typically results in a decrease in summer monsoon
rainfall over the Indian landmass (e.g., Kumar et al. 2006).
Moreover, Cash et al. (2015) conducted an investigation
on the regional characteristics of the South Asian summer
monsoon using various reanalysis products and model sim-
ulations. Their study revealed that the intensified summer
monsoon rainfall observed in Bangladesh and northeast
India is associated with anomalous anticyclonic circula-
tion at 850 mb and westerly anomalies along the foothills
of the Tibetan Plateau. Conversely, other regions dis-
played cyclonic circulation and easterly anomalies linked
to enhanced rainfall. It is important to note that the choice
of reanalysis products influenced their findings. Our find-
ings are partly consistent with the conclusions of Cash
et al. (2015) as we also detected anomalous westerly flow
along the foothills of the Himalayas. Nevertheless, this
atypical circulation induced a cyclonic circulation pattern
instead of the anticyclonic circulation over Bangladesh
and the surrounding regions. It should be emphasized that
a lower-level anticyclone typically suppresses rainfall by
inhibiting cloud formation and restricting the transport of
moisture, as demonstrated in the composite maps of verti-
cally integrated moisture divergence (Fig. 4e and 4f). The
anomalous vertically integrated moisture divergence asso-
ciated with the warm (Fig. 4e) ENSO composite pattern is
substantially different from those associated with the cold
(Fig. 4f) ENSO composite pattern. A significant negative
VimD value can be observed during warm composites,
which indicates a large moisture convergence that could
intensify precipitation over Bangladesh (also in Myan-
mar and northeast India) and result in flooding (Fig. 4e).
As a result of the above analysis, it can be inferred that
rainfall over Bangladesh during the summer monsoon is
13
M. A. Ehsan et al.
determined by large-scale shifts in the center and intensity
of the seasonal mean monsoon circulation.
The potential physical mechanism can be outlined as
follows:
1) During a warm ENSO event (El Niño), the walker cir-
culation tends to be weakened.
2) Resulting in a corresponding weakening of the mean
summer monsoon circulation.
3) This weakening is evident in the diminished intensity of
easterly winds along the Himalayan foothills (anomalous
westerly anomalies are observed along the foothills of
the Himalayas).
4) A lower-level anomalous cyclonic circulation is estab-
lished over Bangladesh and adjoining areas, facilitating
the convergence of moisture within the boundary layer,
which in turn, leads to intensified rainfall over Bangla-
desh and the surrounding regions during warm ENSO
(El Niño).
5) However, the relationship between BSMR and ENSO is
asymmetric.
3.3 ISMR‑ENSO and BSMR‑ISMR Relationship
Previous analyses have indicated that warm ENSO compos-
ites lead to a rise in precipitation over Bangladesh, but the
Indian landmass experiences below-normal rainfall, pointing
towards an inverse correlation between the summer mon-
soonal rainfall of Bangladesh and India. To further empha-
size this point, a joint plot depicting the relationship between
BSMR and ISMR in the observational data is utilized. Fig-
ure 5 shows the scatter plot and individual distributions of
the BSMR and ISMR along with the curve (regression line)
that fits the data. BSMR is negatively correlated (r = − 0.47
statistically significant at the 5% level) with the ISMR dur-
ing the 41-year period. Consequently, there appears to be a
significant heterogeneity within the adjacent region, with
varying responses to events in the Pacific related to ENSO.
Furthermore, these results are consistent with earlier stud-
ies showing that rainfall recorded at individual station sites
in Bangladesh and rainfall in northeastern states of India
were not correlated with monsoon rainfall in the main Indian
landmass (Kripalani et al. 1996; Kumar et al. 2006). For
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The ENSO Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Fig. 4  ENSO Composites and Regional Climate. a Observed (a, b) ture divergence (VimD: shaded in kg/m2). The stippling white dots
SST (shaded in ºC), c, d 850 hPa winds (UV850: vectors in m/s) and show values that are statistically significant at the 5% level. The coun-
precipitation (in inset: shaded in mm), and vertically integrated mois- try of Bangladesh is surrounded by a black square box

instance, Kumar et al. (2006) investigated the changes in the drought conditions in India, whereas Bangladesh appears to
Indian monsoon rainfall response to El Niño events during experience an excessive amount of rainfall during this period
JJAS. They found that warm ENSO events are linked with (refer to Fig. 2b of Kumar et al. 2006).

Published in partnership with CECCR at King Abdulaziz University 13


Fig. 5  BSMR, ISMR relationship. Joint plot (combination of scatter
plot and histograms) between BSMR and ISMR for the period 1981–
2021. The shaded area indicates the 95% confidence interval (esti-
mated using a bootstrap of 10,000 samples)
One may also be interested in recalling the correlation
between Indian summer monsoon rainfall (spatially average
over 75°–85°E, 18°–30°N) and ENSO as well as circulation.
The correlation map constructed between the normalized
time series of ISMR and global SST anomalies reconfirms
their general out-of-phase relationship (Supplementary Fig.
S2a). The correlation coefficient between ISMR and Niño-
3.4 is negative and statistically significant, suggesting that
a good portion (~ 30%) of the total interannual variance of
ISMR is associated with ENSO during boreal summer. Sup-
plementary Fig. S2b shows the regression of the 850 hPa
winds against the ISMR. The enhanced ISMR is character-
ized by the anomalous easterlies, cyclonic circulation over
western Indian region, which leads to moisture convergence
over the region.
3.4 Teleconnections in Seasonal Forecasting Models
Till now, our findings show the following;
A) BSMR and ENSO (Niño-3.4 Index) are weakly posi-
tively correlated.
B) BSMR and ISMR are negatively correlated.
To investigate these in seasonal forecasting models, cor-
relation coefficients between BSMR and global sea surface
temperatures have been computed in two models CanSIPS-
IC3 (Fig. 6a) and SEAS5 (Fig. 6c) of ECMWF (see data
section for details). As opposed to the observed association
(Fig. 2b), the BSMR and SSTs in the Pacific region in two
models indicates a strong negative relationship, which sug-
gests that models cannot reproduce the observed teleconnec-
tions (even the sign is reversed). Additionally, the 850 hPa
13
M. A. Ehsan et al.
circulation plots in two models (Fig. 6b and d) show the
anomalous circulation pattern different from that of the
observed. The models inaccurately depict the relationship
between BSMR and circulation at the 850 hPa level.
This inability warrants exploring the correlation between
ISMR and global sea surface temperatures anomalies in
models. We prepared similar correlation maps by replacing
BSMR with ISMR, and results are depicted in supplemen-
tary Fig. 3S. In contrast to BSMR-ENSO, the ISMR-ENSO
correlation maps are of correct sign in models, although
stronger than that of the observed. This stronger associa-
tion result from utilizing the ensemble-mean data instead of
ensemble members (Ehsan 2020; Ehsan et al. 2021). Nev-
ertheless, both models were able to capture the correct sign
and structure of the correlation between ISMR and SSTs
in the Pacific, and between ISMR and 850 hPa circulation
respectively. Finally, we check the observed inverse associa-
tion between BSMR and ISMR in models. Supplementary
Fig. 4S, shows the scatter plot between BSMR and ISMR
from models. CanSIPS-IC3 model shows moderate positive
association (Supplementary Fig. 4Sa) between BSMR and
ISMR as opposed to observation, however, ECMWF-SEAS5
shows almost no association (Supplementary Fig. 4Sb).
However, the models fail to replicate the observed inverse
correlation between BSMR and ISMR.
4 Discussion and Summary
The summer monsoon over Bangladesh during 2015 resulted
in a net countrywide precipitation excess nearly equivalent
to the 2 × 𝜎 (Standard Deviations), with some parts of the
country experiencing even higher values, while India expe-
riences a strong rainfall deficit. Understanding how ENSO
impacts the boreal summer monsoon rainfall over Bangla-
desh, including its variability and modulating factors, has
important implications for seasonal predictions. The warm
ENSO events have a profound impact on the climate of
Bangladesh. In particular, very strong events (e.g., the warm
events of 1987, 1997, and 2015) force a significant shift in
the precipitation distribution to wet conditions over Bang-
ladesh, as opposed to the precipitation over the neighboring
country, India, that experienced deficit in their countrywide
summer monsoon rainfall. Our findings could have several
practical considerations and suggestions.
• To analyze the regional/local precipitation variability
over South Asia, particularly boreal summer monsoon
rains that cause significant flooding and catastrophe
across the region, high-resolution and high-quality cli-
mate data like ENACTS-BMD is encouraged.
• The relationship between Bangladesh summer monsoon
rainfall and ENSO is asymmetric.
Published in partnership with CECCR at King Abdulaziz University
The ENSO Fingerprint on Bangladesh Summer Monsoon Rainfall
Teleconnections: BSMR, SST and 850hPa Winds (Models)
Fig. 6  BSMR variability, and teleconnections in seasonal forecast
models (CanSIPS-IC3 and ECMWF-SEAS5). a and c The simultane-
ous correlation between BSMR and global SSTs anomalies. In (a and
• Seasonal forecasting models struggle in showing the
observed BSMR-ENSO and circulation relationship, as
well as local precipitation heterogeneity. Yet, useful sum-
mer rainfall predictions can be potentially achievable by
using different statistical bias correction methods (Acha-
rya et al. 2021), which could potentially provide useful
predictions of summer monsoonal rains. This is the topic
of our future research.
Limitations of the present study include the relatively
small number of observed cases of warm ENSO. The
small sample size (41-years: 1981 to 2021), particularly
for observed warm events (8 events), effectively prevents
the determination of the robust statistical distribution of
BSMR based on warm episodes alone, as the BSMR-ENSO
relationship is relatively weak. Data from initialized cou-
pled model ensemble simulations can increase the sample
size to obtain more robust precipitation distributions. Still,
Published in partnership with CECCR at King Abdulaziz University
c), the black dotted points show statistically significant correlation
coefficient at the 5% level. (b and d) The 850-mb winds regressed on
BSMR
the outcomes are also limited to the extent that they can-
not provide realistic responses to SST forcing. In particular,
the BSMR-ENSO, BSMR-circulation, and inverse BSMR-
ISMR connection is different in models as compared to the
observed relationship and pattern. One possible explanation
for the models' inability to accurately depict the signal over
Bangladesh is the intricate physiography of the country.
Bangladesh's unique climate setting, which differs from
its neighboring countries such as India and Myanmar, is
due to its complex topography. The small area and distinct
location of Bangladesh pose a significant challenge for its
accurate representation (e.g., Kumar et al. 2006) in seasonal
prediction models. The experiments conducted in Kumar
et al. 2006, as shown in their Fig. 4b, depict a reduction in
summer monsoon rainfall over the Indian landmass, but fail
to reproduce the observed rise in rainfall over Bangladesh.
The issue of topography is further exacerbated in the south-
eastern regions of Bangladesh, where the sharp elevation
13

cannot be resolved by current versions of Global Climate
Models (GCMs) that have 1-degree resolution (Fahad et al.
2021). Additionally, apart from these topographic issues, the
physics of the models could also add an extra layer of com-
plexity and further contribute to making accurate forecasts
of summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh even more
challenging.
Supplementary Information The online version contains supplemen-
tary material available at https://​doi.​org/​10.​1007/​s41748-​023-​00347-z.
Acknowledgements This work was funded by ACToday, the first of
Columbia University's World Projects. We acknowledge the agencies
that support the NMME-Phase II system, and we thank the climate
modeling groups (Environment Canada, NASA, NCAR, NOAA/GFDL,
NOAA/NCEP, and University of Miami) for producing and making
available their model output. NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/CTB, and NOAA/
CPO jointly provided coordinating support and led development of the
NMME-Phase II system. We thank the Bangladesh Meteorological
Department for producing and making available their ENACTS-BMD
dataset.
Author Contributions MA Ehsan commenced the study, acquired dif-
ferent data sets and carried out analysis, and created all the Figures for
the paper along with initial writing of the paper. MKT, AWR, BS, and
MAR contributed to the interpretation of results and the writing and
reviewing of the manuscript.
Funding This work was funded by ACToday, the first of Columbia
University's World Projects.
Data Availability The global observed and NMME datasets used in this
research are freely available in the IRI Data Library at the following
link http://​iridl.​ldeo.​colum​bia.​edu/​SOURC​ES. The ENACTS-BMD
dataset is freely available as an open-access product at BMD's official
website http://​live.​bmd.​gov.​bd.
Declarations
Conflict of Interest The Authors declare no competing interest.
Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attri-
bution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adapta-
tion, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long
as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source,
provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes
were made. The images or other third party material in this article are
included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated
otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in
the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not
permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will
need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a
copy of this licence, visit http://​creat​iveco​mmons.​org/​licen​ses/​by/4.​0/.
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