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STATISTICAL
TECHNIQUES FOR
TRANSPORTATION
ENGINEERING
STATISTICAL
TECHNIQUES FOR
TRANSPORTATION
ENGINEERING

KUMAR MOLUGARAM
Professor, Department of Civil Engineering,
University College of Engineering,
Osmania University, Hyderabad, Telangana, India

G. SHANKER RAO
Formerly Head of the Department,
Department of Mathematics, Govt. Girraj P.G College, and
Asst. Professor(c), University College of Engineering(A),
Osmania University, Hyderabad
Butterworth-Heinemann is an imprint of Elsevier
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PREFACE

This book “Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering” is

mainly designed to meet the requirements of engineering students of var-
ious Indian Universities. It is intended to be used as a text in basic statis-
tics for the transportation engineering applications of probability and
statistics in traffic engineering problems have markedly increased during
the past two decades. These techniques are helpful in the study of vehicu-
lar traffic. The present text discusses in detail the procedures that have
been found useful in treatment of several types of problems encountered
by the traffic engineers and it forms the basis of a first course in statistics.
It lays foundation necessary to understand the basics of statistical applica-
tions in Transportation engineering and other branches of civil
engineering.
The topics covered in this book are, Measures of central tendency,
Measures of dispersion, Probability, Curve fitting, Correlation and
Regression, Sampling, Hypothesis testing, Tests of significance, Index
numbers, and Time series. All the concepts have been well presented.
The explanations are clear. Numerical examples have been worked out
throughout the book to illustrate the concepts and explained the techni-
ques of solving the problems. We earnestly hope that the comprehensive
treatment of the various topics covered in the book will be welcomed by
both the teachers and the students.
Authors

xi
CHAPTER 1

An Overview of Statistical
Applications

1.1 INTRODUCTION
Civil engineering is considered to be one of the oldest engineering
disciplines. It deals with planning, analysis, design, construction, and
maintenance of the physical and naturally built environment. The subject
is grouped into several specialty areas namely, Structural Engineering,
Construction Engineering and Management, Transportation
Engineering, Water Resource Engineering, Surveying, Environmental
Engineering, and Geotechnical Engineering. Transportation engineering
involves the collection of huge amount of data for performing all types of
traffic and transportation studies. The analysis is carried out based on the
collected and observed data. The statistical aspects are also an important
element in transportation engineering specifically traffic engineering.
Statistics facilitates to resolve how much data will be obligatory, as well as
what consequential inferences can confidently be finished based on that
observed and collected data. Generally statistics is required whenever it is
not possible to directly measure all of the values required. If the traffic
engineer needs to know the average speed of all vehicles on a particular
section of roadway, not all vehicles could be observed. Even if all speeds
of vehicles could be measured over a specified time period, speeds of
vehicles arriving before or after the study period or on a different day
then the sample day would be unknown. In effect, no matter how many
speeds are measured, there are always more that are not known. For all
practical and statistical purposes, the number of vehicles using a particular
section of roadway over time is infinite. Therefore the traffic engineering
often observes and measures the characteristics of a finite sample of vehi-
cles in a population that is effectively infinite. The mathematics of statis-
tics is used to estimate characteristics that cannot be established with
absolute certainty and to assess the degree of certainty that exists.

Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering. Copyright © 2017 BSP Books Pvt Ltd.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-811555-8.00001-5 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1
2 Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering

1.2 PROBABILITY FUNCTIONS AND STATISTICS

Before exploring some of the more complex statistical applications in traf-
fic engineering, some basic principles of probability and statistics that are
relevant to transportation and traffic engineering subject are reviewed.

1.2.1 Discrete Versus Continuous Functions

Discrete functions are made up of discrete variables, i.e., they can
assume only specific whole values and not any value in between.
Continuous functions, made up of continuous variables, on the other
hand, can assume any value between two given values. For example, Let
N 5 the number of cars in a family. N can equal 1, 2, 3, etc., but not
1.5, 1.6, 2.3. Therefore it is a discrete variable. Let H 5 the height of an
individual car. H can equal 1.5, 1.75, 2.25, 2.50, and 2.75 m, etc., and
therefore, is a continuous variable. Examples of discrete probability func-
tions are the Bernoulli, binomial, and Poisson distributions, which will
be discussed in the Chapter 4, Random Variables. Some examples of
continuous distribution are the normal, exponential, and chi-square
distributions.

1.2.2 Distributions Describing Randomness

Some events are very predictable, or should be predictable. If you add
mass to a spring or a force to a beam, you can expect it to deflect a
predictable amount. If you depress the gas pedal to a certain amount and
you are on level terrain, you expect to be able to predict the speed of the
vehicle. On the other hand, some events may be totally random. The
emission of the next particle from a radioactive sample is said to be
completely random. Some events may have very complex mechanisms
and appear to be random for all practical purposes. In some cases, the
underlying mechanism cannot be perceived, while in other cases we can-
not afford the time or money necessary for the investigation. consider the
question of who turns north and who turns south after crossing a bridge.
Most of the time, we simply say there is a probability, p, that a vehicle
will turn north, and we treat the outcome as a random event. However,
if we studied who was driving each car and where each driver worked,
we might expect to make the estimate a very predictable event, for each
and every car. In fact, if we kept a record of their license plates and their
past decisions, we could make very predictable estimates. The events to a
large extent are not random. Obviously, it is not worth that trouble
 An Overview of Statistical Applications 3

because the random assumption serves us well adequate. In fact, a number

of things are modeled as random for all practical purposes, given the
investment we can afford. Most of the time, these judgments are just fine
and are very reasonable but, as with every engineering judgment, they
can sometimes cause errors.

1.2.3 Data Organization

In the data collection process, the data is collected for use in traffic stud-
ies, the raw data can be looked at as individual pieces of data or grouped
into classes of data for easier comprehension. Most of the data will fit into
a common distribution. Some of the common distributions found in traf-
fic engineering are the normal distribution, the exponential distribution,
the chi-square distribution, the Bernoulli distribution, the binomial distri-
bution, and the Poisson distribution. As part of the process for determin-
ing which distribution fits the data, one often summarizes the raw data
into classes and creates a frequency distribution table. This makes the data
more easily readable and understood. You could put the data into an array
format, which means listing the data points in order from either lowest to
highest or highest to lowest. This will give you some feeling for the char-
acter of the data but it is still not very helpful, particularly when you have
a large number of data points.

1.2.4 Common Statistical Estimators

In dealing with a distribution, there are two key characteristics that are of
interest. These are discussed in the following subsections.

1.2.4.1 Measures of Central Tendency

Measures of central tendency are measures that describe the center of data
in one of several different ways. The Arithmetic mean is the average of all
observed data. The true underlying mean of the population, μ, is an exact
number that we do not know, but can estimate as:

1X N
x5 xi (1.1)
N i51

where x 5 arithmetic average or mean of observed values, xi 5 ith indi-

vidual value of statistic, N 5 sample size, number of values xi.
4 Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering

For grouped data, the average value of all observations in a given

group is considered to be the midpoint value of the group. The overall
average of the entire sample may then be found as:
X
x5 fj mj
j
(1.2)
N

where fj 5 number of observation in group j, mj 5 middle value of

variable in group j, N 5 total sample size or number of observations.
The median is the middle value of all data when arranged in
an array (ascending or descending order). The median divides a
distribution in half: half of all observed values are higher than the
median, half are lower than the median. For nongrouped data, it is the
middle value; e.g., for the set of numbers (3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8),
the median is 6. It is the fifth value (in ascending or descending order)
in an array of 9 numbers. For grouped data, the easiest way to get the
median is to read the 50 percentile point off a cumulative frequency
distribution curve.
The mode is the value that occurs most frequently that is the
most common single value. For example, in nongrouped data, for
the set of numbers (3, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7, 7, 7, 8) the mode is 7. For the set
of numbers (3, 3, 4, 5, 5, 5, 6, 7, 8, 8, 8, 9), both 5 and 8 are modes,
and the data is said to be bimodal. For grouped data, the mode is
estimated as the peak of the frequency distribution curve. For a
perfectly symmetrical distribution, the mean, median, and mode will
be the same.

1.2.4.2 Measures of Dispersion

Measures of dispersion are measures that describe how far the data spread
from the center. The variance and standard deviation are statistical values
that describe the magnitude of variation around the mean, with the vari-
ance defined as:
P
ðxi 2xÞ2
S2 5 (1.3)
N 1
where S2 5 variance of the data, N 5 sample size, number of observa-
tions. All other variables are previously defined.
 An Overview of Statistical Applications 5

The standard deviation is the square root of the variance. It can be

seen from the equation that what you are measuring is the distance of
each data point from the mean. This equation can also be rewritten as:
 
1X N
N
S 5
2
x 2
2
x2 (1.4)
N i51 i N 21

For grouped data, the standard deviation is found from:

sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
P 2
fm 2 N ðxÞ2
S5 (1.5)
N 21

where all variables are as previously defined. The standard deviation

(STD) may also be estimated as:

P85 2 P15
Sest 5 (1.6)
2
where P85 5 85th percentile value of the distribution (i.e., 85% of all data
is at this value or less), P15 5 15th percentile value of the distribution
(i.e., 15% of all data is at this value or less).
The xth percentile is defined as that value below which x% of the
outcomes fall. P85 is the 85th percentile, often used in traffic speed
studies; it is the speed that encompasses 85% of vehicles. P50 is the 50th
percentile speed or the median.

1.3 APPLICATIONS OF NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

One of the most common statistical distribution is the normal distribu-
tion, known by its characteristic bell shaped curve. The normal distribu-
tion is a continuous distribution. Probability is indicated by the area
under the probability density function f(x) between specified values, such
as P (40 , x , 50).
The equation for the normal distribution function is:
ðx2μÞ2 
1
f ðxÞ 5 pffiffiffiffiffiffi e2 2σ2 (1.7)
σ 2π
where x 5 normally distributed statistic, μ 5 true mean of the distribu-
tion, σ 5 true standard deviation of the distribution, π 5 3.14.
6 Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering

The probability of any occurrence between values x1 and x2 is given

by the area under the distribution function between the two values. The
area may be found by integration between the two limits. Likewise,
the mean, μ, and the variance, α2, can be found through integration.
The normal distribution is the most common distribution, because any
process that is the sum of many parts tends to be normally distributed.
Speed, travel time, and delay are all commonly described using the nor-
mal distribution. The function is completely defined by two parameters:
the mean and the variance. All other values in Eq. (1.6) including π, are
constants. The notation for a normal distribution is x: N[μ, α2], which
means that the variable x is normally distributed with a mean of μ and a
variance of σ2.

1.3.1 The Standard Normal Distribution

For the normal distribution, the integration cannot be done in
closed form due to the complexity of the equation for f(x); thus,
tables for a “standard normal” distribution, with zero mean (μ 5 0) and
unit variance (σ2 5 1), are constructed. The standard normal is denoted
z: N[0,1]. Any value of x on any normal distribution, denoted x: N
[μ,σ2], can be converted to an equivalent value of z on the standard nor-
mal distribution. This can also be done in reverse when needed. The
translation of an arbitrary normal distribution of values of x to equivalent
values of z on the standard normal distribution is accomplished as:
x2μ
z5 (1.8)
σ
where z 5 equivalent statistic on the standard normal distribution, z:
N[0,1]; x 5 statistic on any arbitrary normal distribution, x: N[μ,σ2] other
variables as previously defined.

1.3.2 Characteristics of the Normal Distribution Function

The forgoing exercise allow one to compute relevant areas under the
normal curve. Some numbers occur frequently in practice, and it
is useful to have those in mind. For instance, what is the probability
that the next observation will be within one standard deviation of the
mean, given that the distribution is normal? That is, what is the
 An Overview of Statistical Applications 7

probability that x is in the range (μ 6 1.00σ)? For example, the tenta-

tive value can find that this probability is 68.3% by adopting some stan-
dard method.
The following ranges have frequent use in statistical analysis involving
normal distributions:
• 68.3% of the observations are within μ 6 1.00σ
• 95.0% of the observations are within μ 6 1.96σ
• 95.5% of the observations are within μ 6 2.00σ
• 99.7% of the observations are within μ 6 3.00σ
The total probability under the normal curve is 1.00, and the normal
curve is symmetric around the mean. It is also useful to note that the nor-
mal distribution is asymptotic to the x-axis and extends to values of 6 N.
These critical characteristics will prove to be useful throughout the text.

1.4 CONFIDENCE BOUNDS

What would happen if we asked everyone in class (70 people) to collect
50 samples of speed data and to compute their own estimate of the mean.
How many estimates would there be? What distribution would they
have? There would be 70 estimates and the histogram of these 70 means
would look normally distributed. Thus the “estimate of the mean” is
itself a random variable that is normally distributed.
Usually we compute only one estimate of the mean (or any other quan-
tity), but in this class exercise we are confronted with the reality that there is
a range of outcomes. We may, therefore, ask how good is our estimate of the
mean. How confident are we that our estimate is correct? Consider that:
1. The estimate of the mean quickly tends to be normally distributed.
2. The expected value (the true mean) of this distribution is the
unknown fixed mean of the original distribution.
3. The standard deviation of this new distribution of means is the
standard deviation of the original distribution divided by the square
root of the number of samples, N. (This assumes independent samples
and infinite population.)
The standard deviation of this distribution of the means is called the
standard error of the mean (E):
pffiffiffiffiffi
E 5 σ= N (1.9)
where the sample standard deviation, s, is used to estimate σ, and all
variables are as previously defined. The same characteristics of any normal
8 Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering

distribution apply to this distribution of means as well. In other words,

the single value of the estimate of the mean, xn , approximates the true
population, μ, as follows:
μ 5 x 6 E, with 68.3% confidence
μ 5 x 6 1.96 E, with 95% confidence
μ 5 x 6 3.00 E, with 99.7% confidence
The 6 term (E, 1.96E, or 3.00E, depending upon the confidence level)
in the above equation is also called the tolerance and is given the symbol e.
Consider the following: 54 speeds are observed, and the mean is com-
puted as 47.8 km/h, with a standard deviation of 7.80 km/h. What are
the 95% confidence bounds?
 pffiffiffiffiffi 
P 47:8  1:96 3 ð7:80= 54Þ # μ
 pffiffiffiffiffi 
# 47:8 1 1:96 3 7:80= 54Þ 5 0:95 or
Pð45:7 # μ # 49:9Þ 5 0:95
Thus it is said that there is a 95% chance that the true mean lies between
45.7 and 49.9 km/h. Further, while not proven here, any random variable
consisting of sample means tends to be normally distributed for reasonably
large n, regardless of the original distribution of individual values.

1.5 DETERMINATION OF SAMPLE SIZE

We can rewrite the equation for confidence bounds to solve for N, given
that we want to achieve a specified tolerance and confidence. Resolving
the 95% confidence bound equation for N gives:
1:962 x2
N$ (1.10)
e2
where 1.962 is used only for 95% confidence. If 99.7% confidence is
desired, then the 1.962 would be replaced by 32.
Consider another example: With 99.7% and 95% confidence, estimate
the true mean of the speed on a highway, 61 mph. We know from
previous work that the standard deviation is 7.2 km/h. How many
samples do we need to collect?
32 3 7:22
N5  467 samples for 99.7% confidence, and
12
1:962 3 7:22
N5  200 samples for 95% confidence
12
Consider further that a spot speed study is needed at a location with
unknown speed characteristics. A tolerance of 60.2 km/h and a
 An Overview of Statistical Applications 9

confidence of 95% is desired. What sample size is required? Since the speed
characteristics are unknown, a standard deviation of 5 km/h (a most
common result in speed studies) is assumed. Then for 95% confidence,
N 5 (1.962 3 52)/0.22 5 2401 samples. This number is unreasonably high.
It would be too expensive to collect such a large amount of data. Thus the
choices are to either reduce the confidence or increase the tolerance.
A 95% confidence level is considered the minimum that is acceptable: thus
in this case, the tolerance would be increased. With a tolerance of 0.5 mph:

1:962 3 52
N5 5 384 vehicles
0:52
Thus the increase of just 0.3 mph in tolerance resulted in a decrease of
2017 samples required. Note that the sample size required is dependent
on s, which was assumed at the beginning. After the study is completed
and the mean and standard deviation are computed, N should be
rechecked. If N is greater (i.e., the actual s is greater than the assumed s)
then more samples may need to be taken.
Another example: An arterial is to be studied, and it is desired to
estimate the mean travel time to a tolerance of 65 seconds with 95%,
confidence. Based on prior knowledge and experience, it is estimated
that the standard deviation of the travel times is about 15 seconds. How
many samples are required?
Based on an application of Eq. 13.10, N 5 1.962(152)/(52) 5 34.6,
which is rounded to 35 samples.
As the data is collected, the s computed is 22 seconds, not 15 seconds.
If thepsample
ffiffiffiffiffi size is kept at n 5 35, the confidence bounds will be 61.96
(22)/ 35 or about 67.3 seconds. If the confidence bounds must be kept
at 65 seconds, then the sample size must be increased so that
N $ 1.962(222)/(52) 5 74.4 or 75 samples. Additional data will have to be
collected to meet the desired tolerance and confidence level.

1.6 RANDOM VARIABLES SUMMATION

One of the most common occurrences in probability and statistics is the
summation of random variables, often in the form Y 5a1X1 1 a2X2 or in
the more general form:
X
Y5 ai Xi (1.11)
where the summation is over i, usually from 1 to n.
10 Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering

It is relatively straightforward to prove that the expected value

(or mean) μY of the random variable Y is given by:
X
μY 5 ai μXi (1.12)
and that if the random variables xi are independent of each other, the
variance σ2Y of the random variable Y is given by:
X
σ2Y 5 a2i σ2xi (1.13)
The fact that the coefficients, ai, are multiplied has great practical
significance for us in all our statistical work.

1.6.1 The Central Limit Theorem

One of the most impressive and useful theorems in probability is that the
slim of n similarly distributed random variables tends to the normal distri-
bution, no matter what the initial, underlying distribution is. That is, the
random variable Y 5 ΣXi, where the Xi have the same distribution, tends
to the normal distribution.
The words “tends to” can be read as “tends to look like” the normal
distribution. In mathematical terms, the actual distribution of the random
variable Y approaches the normal distribution asymptotically.

1.6.1.1 Sum of Travel Times

Consider a trip made up of 15 components, all with the same underlying
distribution, each with a mean of 10 minutes and standard deviation of
3.5 minutes. The underlying distribution is unknown. What can you say
about the total travel time?
While there might be an odd situation to contradict this, n 5 15
should be quite sufficient to say that the distribution of total travel times
tends to look normal. From the standard equation, the mean of the distri-
bution of total travel times is found by adding 15 terms (ai μi) where
ai 5 1 and μi 5 10 minutes, or
μy 5 15 3 (1 3 10) 5 150 minutes
The variance of the distribution of total travel times is found from
Eq. (1.13) by adding 15 terms ða2i σ2i Þ where ai is again 1, and σi is
3.5 minutes. Then:
σ2y 5 15 3 ð1 3 3:52 Þ 5 183:75 minutes2
The standard deviation, σy is, therefore, 13.6 minutes.
 An Overview of Statistical Applications 11

If the total travel times are taken to be normally distributed, 95%

of all observations of total travel time will lie between the mean
(150 minutes) 61.96 standard deviations (13.6 minutes), or:
Xy 5 150 6 1.96 (13.6)
Thus 95% of all total travel times would be expected to fall within the
range of 123177 minutes (values rounded to the nearest minute).

1.6.1.2 Hourly Volumes

Five-minute counts are taken, and they tend to look rather smoothly
distributed but with some skewness (asymmetry). Based on many obser-
vations, the mean tends to be 45 vehicles in the 5-minute count, with a
standard deviation of seven vehicles. What can be said of the hourly
volume?
The hourly volume is the sum of 12 five-minute distributions, which
should logically be basically the same if traffic levels are stable. Thus the
hourly volume will tend to look normal, and will have a mean computed
using Eq. (1.12), with ai 5 l, μi 5 45 vehicles (veh), and n 5 12, or 12 3
(1 3 45) 5 40 veh/h. The variance is computed using Eq. (1.13), with
ai 5 1, σi 5 7, and n 5 12, or 12 3 (12 3 72) 5 588 (veh/h)2. The standard
deviation is 24.2 veh/h. Based on the assumption of normality, 95% of
hourly volumes would be between 540 6 1.96(24.2) 5 540 6 47 veh/h
(rounded to the nearest whole vehicle).
Note that the summation has had an interesting effect. The σ/μ ratio
for the 5-minute count distribution was 7/45 5 0.156, but for the hourly
volumes it was 47/540 5 0.087. This is due to the summation, which
tends to remove extremes by canceling “highs” with “lows” and thereby
introduces stability. The mean of the sum grows in proportion n, but the
standard deviation grows in proportion to the square root of n.

1.6.1.3 Sum of Normal Distributions

Although not proven here, it is true that the sum of any two normal
distributions is itself normally distributed. By extension, if one normal is
formed by n1 summations of one underlying distribution and another
normal is formed by n2 summations of another underlying distribution,
the sum of the total also tends to the normal.
Thus in the foregoing travel time example, not all of the elements had
to have exactly the same distribution as long as subgroupings each tended
to the normal.
12 Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering

1.7 THE BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTIONS

1.7.1 Bernoulli and the Binomial Distribution
The Bernoulli distribution is the simplest discrete distribution, consisting
or only two possible outcomes: yes or no, heads or tails, one or zero, etc.
The first occurs with probability p, and therefore the second occurs with
probability (1p 5 q). This is modeled as:
PðX 5 1Þ 5 p
PðX 5 0Þ 5 I  p 5 q
In traffic engineering, it represents any basic choice—to park or not
to park; to take this route or that; to take auto or transit (for one individ-
ual). It is obviously more useful to look at more than one individual,
however, which leads us to the binomial distribution. The binomial
distribution can be thought of in two common ways:
1. In N outcomes of the Bernoulli distribution, make a record of the
number of events that have the outcome “1,” and report that number
as the outcome X.
2. The binomial distribution is characterized by the following properties:
a. There are N events, each with the same probability p of a positive
outcome and (l 2 p) of a negative outcome.
b. The outcomes are independent of each other.
c. The quantity of interest is the total number X of positive
outcomes, which may logically vary between 0 and N.
d. N is a finite number.
The two ways are equivalent, for most purposes.
Consider a situation in which people may choose “transit” or “auto”
where each person has the same probability p 5 0.25 of choosing transit,
and each person’s decision is independent of that of all other persons.
Defining “transit” as the positive choice for the purpose of this example
and choosing N 5 8, note that:
1. Each person is characterized by the Bernoulli distribution, with
p 5 0.25.
2. There are 28 5 256 possible combinations of choices, and some of the
combinations not only yield the same value of X but also have the
same probability of occurring. For instance, the value of X 5 2 occurs
for both.
TTAAAAAA
and
TATAAAAA
 An Overview of Statistical Applications 13

and several other combinations, each with probability of p2(1 2 P)6, for a
total of 28 such combinations.
Stated without proof is the result that the probability P(X 5 x) is given
by
N!
PðX 5 xÞ 5 px ð12pÞN2x (1.14)
ðN 2 xÞ!x!
with a mean of Np and a variance of Npq where q 5 1 2 p. The deriva-
tion may be found in any standard probability text.
There is an important concept that the reader should master, in order
to use statistics effectively throughout this text. Even though on average
two out of eight people will choose transit, there is absolutely no guaran-
tee what the next eight randomly selected people will choose, even if
they follow the rules (same p, independent decisions, etc.). In fact, the
number could range anywhere from X 5 0 to 8. And we can expect that
tile result X 5 1 will occur 10.0% of the time, X 5 4 will occur 8.7% of
the time, and X 5 2 will occur only 31.1% of the time.
This is the crux of the variability in survey results. If there were 200
people in the senior class and each student surveyed eight people from
the subject population, we would get different results. Likewise, if we
average our results, the result would probably be close to 2.00, but would
almost surely not be identical to it.

1.7.2 Asking People Questions Survey Results

Consider that the commuting population has two choices X 5 0 for auto
and X 5 1 for public transit. The probability p is generally unknown, and
it is usually of great interest. Assuming the probability is the same for all
people (to our ability to discern, at least). then each person is character-
ized by the Bernoulli distribution.
If we ask n 5 50 people for their value of X, the resulting distribution
of the random variable Y is binomial and may tend to look like the nor-
mal. Applying some “quick facts” and noting that the expected value
(that is the mean) is 12.5 (50 3 0.25), the variance is 9.375
(50 3 0.25 3 0.75), and the standard deviation is 3.06, one can expect
95%, of the results 10 fall in the range 12.5 6 6.0 or between 6.5 and
18.5.
If n 5 200 had been selected. then the mean of Y would have been 50
when p 5 0.25 and the standard deviation would have been 6.1, so that
95% of the results would have fallen in the range of 3862.
26 Statistical Techniques for Transportation Engineering

According to the above definition, statistics should possess the follow-

ing characteristics:
1. Statistics are aggregate of facts; which means that statistics deals with
groups but not individual items.
2. Statistics are affected to a marked extent by a multiplicity of causes.
3. Statistics are expressed numerically.
4. Statistics should be enumerated or estimated: When the field of
enquiry is not large, the numerical data pertaining to the field col-
lected by actual counting, i.e., by enumeration and when the field of
enquiry is very large the data can be estimated.
5. Statistics should be collected with reasonable standard of accuracy.
6. Statistics should be collected in a systematic manner for a predeter-
mined purpose.
7. Statistics should be placed in relation to each other.
These definitions describe statistics as numerical data. The following
are some definitions, which describe statistics as a method:
Statistics is a body of methods for making definitions in the face of uncertainty.

Wallis and Robert
Statistics may be called the science of counting.

A.L. Bowley
Statistics is the science of estimates and probabilities.

Boddington
Statistics may be define as the collection, presentation analysis and interpretation
of numerical data.

Croxton and Cowden

The definition given by Croxton and Cowden is a simple definition.

According this definition there are four stages in statistics, namely
Collection of data, Presentation of data, Analysis of data, and Interpretation
of data.
Broadly speaking, there are five stages:
1. Collection of data: The first step in any investigation is the collection of
data. Special care must be taken by the investigator in collecting the
data. If the data is faulty, the results will be faulty. There are different
methods of collection of data.
2. Organization of data: A large collection of data must be edited very
carefully and organized. After editing the data must be classified and
tabulated. Classification refers to the determination of various classes,
categories of or group heads in which the whole data shall be
Another random document with
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 ENTRANCE TO THE “AFIN” OR RESIDENCE OF THE ALAFIN OF OYO,
SHOWING TYPICAL YORUBA THATCHING.

Take, for example, the land question. If there is one thing upon
which all the most experienced Nigerian administrators are agreed it
is the absolute essentiality, for the future of the people of the country,
that their use and enjoyment of the land should be secured, not only
against a certain type of European capitalist who covets this rich soil
for his own schemes, and, under the pretence of industrial
expansion, would cheerfully turn the native agriculturist, farmer, and
trader into a “labourer,” but against the class of native who, for his
own ends, for speculative purposes mainly, seeks to undermine
native law and to change the right of user upon which native land
tenure is based, into that of owner at the expense of the community
at large. More especially does this become a question of vital
importance to native communities where, as in Yorubaland, you have
a comparatively dense population which under the pax Britannica is
bound to increase at a very rapid rate, and thus requires every inch
of land for its own future uses. But as matters stand at present, we
cannot, in the Egba district, which, being nearer to Lagos, is more
accessible to certain undesirable influences, both European and
native, and to the infiltration of European laws and customs
regulating the tenure of land, take effective measures to counteract
these influences. We could, of course, if we chose, not in the Egba
district only, but throughout Yorubaland. But there has been a
lamentable reluctance both at home and in the Protectorate to
foresee and cope with a predicament which all realize, which some
from a natural bent of mind inclining them to favour the substitution
everywhere of direct for indirect rule, and others who are of the same
way of thinking but from motives of self-interest may secretly rejoice
at, but which the officials whose hearts are really in the country and
who have sufficient experience to understand the endless and
disastrous embarrassments that the disintegration of native law
relating to land would produce, deeply deplore. What has been the
result? The Egbas are beginning to buy and to sell land among
themselves in absolute violation of their own customs and laws,
thereby laying up for their country a heritage of trouble and inserting
the thin edge of the wedge of their own undoing by letting in the land
monopolist and speculator. This, according to all its professions and
to its actions in some specific circumstances, for which it is to be
warmly commended, is, in the view of the Administration, inimical to
the public interest of the Protectorate. What is springing up in
Abeokuta to-day will spread to the other districts to-morrow—nay, is
doing so.
 Take another example. The welfare of an agricultural community
demands, for many reasons scientifically substantiated, that a stop
should be put to the reckless destruction of timbered areas such as
has been proceeding all over Yorubaland. This is inherently a public
interest, and the Forestry Officer in the discharge of his duties is
merely a servant of the public. But in the Western Province, for the
same reasons, we cannot or are unwilling to put our case to the
native authorities for the protection of the people against themselves
with the same moral force as in the case of the other two provinces.
We are confined, or think we are confined, to simple persuasion.
Now, persuasion by the Forestry Officer alone is one thing, and
persuasion by the Forestry Officer supported by direct
representations from the Executive at Lagos is a very different thing.
It is the latter form of persuasion that has been absent, and very
great credit is due alike to the Forestry Officers and to a
Commissioner trusted by the native rulers, Mr. W. A. Ross, as well
as to the intelligence of those native rulers themselves, that in the
Oyo district both State and communal reserves have been created,
the latter of great extent including the entire valley of the Ogun. But
in the Abeokuta and Ibadan districts persuasion has failed hitherto to
secure any really tangible results. It is almost unnecessary to point
out that the interests of the population do not suffer merely indirectly
and potentially, but directly thereby. Not only does Southern Nigeria
import quantities of timber from Europe when the country should
itself provide for all requirements, but even so primitive a necessity
as firewood is beginning to make itself felt round such towns as Ede,
Abeokuta, and Ibadan.
In these problems the policy of the Southern Nigeria
Administration has been to leave the matter to the native authorities,
in other words, to let the land question slide down a perilous
declivity, and to allow the question of forestry preservation to be left
to the unsupported efforts of the Forestry Department. If this policy of
non-interference had been consistently applied in other directions an
intelligible case, at least, might be made out for it. But the facts are
notoriously otherwise. To mention but one instance. Two years ago
pressure was put upon the Ibadan authorities to vote unpopular
licensing regulations in the interests of temperance, and one of the
incidents subsequently arising out of it was the stoppage of the
Bale’s stipend by the Acting Resident with the concurrence of the
Executive at Lagos! Only last February a Bill called the “Foreign
Jurisdiction Ordinance, 1911,” was passed through the Lagos
Legislative Council, which provides for the extension of the laws of
the colony to the Protectorate of Yorubaland (except Abeokuta)
without the native authorities being even consulted, the Attorney-
General adopting, in effect, the extraordinary position that the
Government could take no account of “agreements, understandings,
or letters” (concluded or written by previous Governors) with the
native chiefs! If the native chiefs realized what the logical outcome of
the Ordinance might mean for them, by an Executive in Lagos, which
adopted the legal argument quoted, there would be ferment from one
end of Yoruba to the other.
It must be clear from what precedes that the time has come when
the whole position of the Yoruba States in relation to the paramount
Power should be reconsidered. The railway and other agencies are
causing the country to move forward very fast, and conditions are
being evolved through the attempt to drive in two directions at once,
which can only lead, if not to the ultimate annexation of Yorubaland,
then to what would, if possible, be even worse—viz. the
strangulation by successive stages of every effective agency in
native government, leaving the chiefs and their councils mere
puppets in the hands of the Lagos Legislative Council. Now neither
of these courses is, I am convinced, desired by the Imperial
Government. The drift is, nevertheless, apparent to all that have
eyes to see and ears to hear. There is a strong party in Lagos
favouring direct rule. There is a combination of distinct influences—in
many respects working unconsciously—making for the break-up of
native land tenure and the undermining of native authority. There is
the increasing danger of leaving the land question unregulated and
the difficulty attending the adoption of adequate measures for forest
preservation.
Only one course would appear open to the authorities if they
desire to stop the dry rot. The first step would consist in getting the
Native Councils—i.e. the Chiefs in Council—of all the districts in the
Western Province to pass an identical measure of national land
preservation which would become known as the Yoruba Land Act.
Inalienability of land is the cardinal principle of Yoruba land tenure.
The preamble of the measure would define Yoruba law and custom
in regard to land. The body of the measure would declare to be
illegal all buying and selling of land, either between natives and
natives or between natives and non-natives, and would establish
limitations of area and time for the holding of leased lands by private
individuals or associations, with provision for revision of rentals at
specified periods. The need of such a measure should be
recognized and the action proposed sanctioned by the Secretary of
State, and the matter should be represented to the native authorities
with all the additional weight which in their eyes it would under those
circumstances possess. It cannot be doubted that were the measure
fully and thoroughly explained to the Native Councils and its urgency
in the interests of their people emphasized, little or no trouble would
be experienced in ensuring its adoption. In the improbable event of
difficulties arising it would be the plain duty of the Administration to
overcome them. The Administration should be able to count in a
matter of this kind upon the support of every patriotic educated
Yoruban. The second step would be more far-reaching—viz. the
general reconstruction of the machinery of national government over
the whole province, and the welding together under the headship of
the Alafin of Oyo—the “King and Lord of Yorubaland,” as he is
described in the British Treaty—working with a Council
representative of all Yorubaland, of the separate districts which
internal anarchy and external aggression between them have
caused to fall away from the central authority. The existing Councils
of the various districts would, of course, remain, but we should have
what we have not at present, a true “Yoruba Council,” a strong
central native Government through which the development, the
progress, and the common welfare of the country could proceed on
definite, ordered, national lines.
This would be Empire-building of the real kind. It would not be
unattended with difficulty. It would require time, much tact, and,
above all, full and frank exposition and explanation. But it is feasible
of accomplishment, and by a policy of this kind alone can one of the
most interesting and promising races of Western Africa hope to
reach, under our supreme direction, its full development. The
elements necessary to the success of such policy exist. They do not
need to be created, but only to have their vitality revived and their
course adjusted and guided.
 PART III
NORTHERN NIGERIA
 CHAPTER I
THE NATURAL HIGHWAY TO THE UPLANDS OF THE NORTH

A casual visitor provided by private kindness with the hospitality of

a stern-wheeler and not, therefore, exposed to the discomforts
(soon, it is to be hoped, to be a thing of the past, with the completion
of railway communications between Lagos and Zungeru) with which
an inexcusably inefficient service of river-boats afflicts the unhappy
official on his way to Northern Nigeria, packed like a sardine, and
feeding as best he can, may be pardoned for finding much of
captivating interest in 400 miles of leisurely steaming, with many a
halt en route, from Forcados to Baro, the starting-point of the
Northern Nigerian Railway to Kano. The heat of the afternoons, the
myriad insect visitors which are heralded by the lighting of the lamps,
blacken the cloth and invade every part of the person accessible to
their attentions, the stifling nights, spent, may be, at anchor under
the lee of perpendicular banks; these are trifles not worthy of
mention by comparison with the rewards they bring. Kaleidoscopic
varieties of scenic effects enchant the eye as hour follows hour and
day follows day on the bosom of this wonderful Niger, passing from
serpentine curves so narrow that the revolving paddles seem in
imminent danger of sinking into the bank itself or snapping against
some one of the many floating snags, to ever broadening and
majestic proportions with vistas of eternal forest, of villages nestling
amid banana groves, of busy fishermen flinging their nets, of
occasional dark massive heads lifted a brief second from the deeps
to disappear silently as they arose, of brilliant blue kingfishers darting
hither and thither. Now the river flows through some natural
greenhouse of palms and ferns, whose nodding fronds are reflected
in the still green waters, now past a fringe of matted creepers gay
with purple convolvulus pierced at intervals with the grey upstanding
hole of the silk cotton tree. Here its course is broken by long
stretches of fine hummocky sand across whose shining surface stalk
the egret and the crane, the adjoining rushes noisy with the cackle of
the spur-winged geese. Here it glides expanding between open
plains bordered with reeds, only to narrow once more as the plain
heaves upward and the tall vegetable growth gives way to arid
granite outcrops, ascending towards the far horizon into high
tablelands. If at dawn the Niger veils its secrets in billowy mists of
white, at sunset the sense of mystery deepens. For that, I think, is
the principal charm of this great highway into the heart of Negro
Africa, the sense of mystery it inspires. Cradled in mystery, for two
thousand years it defied the inquisitiveness of the outer world,
guarded from the north by dangerous shoals and rapids; hiding its
outlet in a fan-shaped maze of creeks. To-day when its sanctuaries
are violated, its waters churned and smitten by strange and ugly
craft, it is still mysterious, vast and unconquered. Mysterious that
sombre forest the gathering shades encompass. Mysterious that tall
half-naked figure on yonder ledge, crimson framed in the dying sun,
motionless and statuesque. Mysterious that piercing melancholy
note which thrills from the profundities beyond, fading away in
whispers upon the violet and green wavelets lapping against the side
of the boat. Mysterious those rapid staccato drumbeats as unknown
humanity on one shore signals to unseen humanity on the other.
Mysterious the raucous cry of the crown-birds passing in long lines
to their resting-place in the marshes. Mysterious those tiny lights
from some unsuspected haunt of natural man that spring into life as
the sun sinks to slumber, and darkness, deep unfathomable
darkness, rushes over the land there to rest until a blood-red moon,
defining once again the line of forest, mounts the sky.
 OUTLINE MAP OF NORTHERN NIGERIA.

From the point of view of navigation and of commerce the Niger is

a most unsatisfactory and uncertain river to work. It can be
described, perhaps, as a river full of holes with shallows between
them. Its channels are constantly changing. It is full of sandbanks
which take on new shapes and sizes every year. The direction of the
water-flow below Samabri, where the bifurcation begins, is so
unreliable that within a few years the Nun has become virtually
useless, the Forcados gaining what the Nun has lost, while there are
recent indications that the process may again be altered in favour
once more of the Nun to the detriment of the Forcados. In the course
of the year the water level varies twenty-seven feet, the period of rise
being from June in an ascending scale until the end of September,
the fall then commencing, the river being at its lowest from
December to May. In the rainy season the banks are flooded in the
lower regions for miles around. In the dry season the banks tower up
in places fifteen feet above water level. Roughly speaking, the Niger
is navigable for steamers drawing five feet in June, six feet in July,
and so on up to twelve feet in the end of September; from November
to April for vessels drawing between four and five feet. But the
conditions of two consecutive years are seldom alike.
Government has done little or nothing to cope with these natural
difficulties. The Admiralty charts available to the captains of
steamers are ludicrously obsolete, and all wrong. No continuous
series of observations have been taken of the river, and no effort
made to tackle the problem of improving navigation. Four years ago,
by Sir Percy Girouard’s directions, soundings were, indeed, taken
over a distance of 350 miles from Burutu (Forcados) to Lokoja at the
junction with the Benue; with the result that only seven miles of
sand-bars were reported to require dredging in order to secure a six-
foot channel all the year round. The experienced merchant smiled.
He is a slightly cynical person, is the West African merchant who
knows his Niger. Anyhow he is still whistling for his six-foot channel.
One dredger, the best which money could buy, was purchased by
the Northern Nigerian Administration. It did a little dredging round
about Lokoja (and the merchants in the south declare that the
performance has made matters worse for them), has been used as a
passenger boat up the Benue, and is now, I believe, filling up the
swamps at Baro; but the six-foot channel still exists as an attractive
theory in the Government Blue Book. There is so much to praise,
administratively speaking, in Nigeria that one feels the freer to speak
bluntly of the failure of Government to handle this matter of Niger
navigation. It is one of the inevitable, one of the many deplorable,
results of dual control over a common territory; one of the
consequences of the long competition between the two rival
Administrations, each quite honestly playing for its own hand and
each quite satisfied that it alone can think imperially. The upshot has
been pernicious to the public interest. The river-service is shocking
from the point of view of efficiency, and enormously costly. The
steamers themselves are falling to pieces. There is no system of
public pilotage, or of lighting. Trading steamers must anchor at night,
which involves, in the aggregate, a great waste of time and money.
The two Administrations are so busy squabbling over their competing
railways and manœuvring to frame rates which will cut one another
out, that the great natural highway into the interior is utterly
neglected.
It is impossible that feelings of respect should not go out, not only
towards the official who labours under these conditions in the Niger
waterways but also towards the merchant building up in quiet,
unostentatious fashion the edifice of commercial enterprise upon
which, in the ultimate resort, the whole fabric of Administrative
activity reposes. I do not now speak of the heads of these powerful
trading firms in Europe, many of whom, by the way, have themselves
gone through the mill in their time. To them England is indebted for
the Imperial position she holds in Nigeria to-day, a fact which is too
apt to be forgotten. I refer to the men, mostly young, in charge of
trading stations on the banks of the Niger and its creeks, living a life
of terrible loneliness amid primitive surroundings in a deadly climate,
separated in many cases several days’ journey from another white
face, not nearly so well housed as the officials (I am describing
Southern Nigeria, be it remembered), and not, like them, helped by
the consciousness of power or stimulated by the wider horizon the
latter enjoy. Thrown entirely on their own resources, usually unfitted
by their previous life to face the privations and isolation of an
existence such as this, very hard-worked—their lot is not an enviable
one. No doubt the hardships they have to endure are incidental to a
career they freely choose, although often enough with little or no
previous comprehension of its character. No doubt the fibres of a
minority will be toughened by their experiences. No doubt these
hardships are infinitely less severe than those which the early
pioneers were compelled to undergo, many succumbing under the
process; but in that connection it should not be forgotten that the
latter had the incentive of carving out their fortunes with their own
hands, whereas the present generation out in Nigeria are not their
own masters. One cannot help reflecting upon the irony of the
contrast between the commiseration so freely lavished at home upon
the spiritual drawbacks of the Nigerian native, and the total lack of
interest displayed by the Church in the welfare of these young
fellows, many of them mere lads, exposed to all the moral
temptations of their savage environment in which only exceptional
natures will detect the broadening spiritual influences. What an
untold blessing would be a periodical visit to their African homes,
fronted by the silent river, invested by the tropical forest, from an
experienced, genial, sympathetic minister of God, who for a day or
two would share their lives and win their confidence.
There is another matter which should be raised. These young men
who come out from England—I refer to the English trading firms only,
not having inquired into the system prevailing among the Continental
firms—do so under a three years’ contract. This is an altogether
excessive period for the Niger. It should be cut down one half. Even
then it would be half as long again as the officials’ term of service.
Professors of tropical medicine and magnates at home may say
what they like about the improvement of health in the large European
settlements. The towns are one thing. The “bush” is quite another.
Speaking generally, the climate of Nigeria, and the conditions under
which four-fifths of white humanity have to live are such as combine,
even in favourable circumstances, to impose the severest strain,
both physical and mental, upon all but a select few. At the end of a
year’s continuous residence, the strain begins to make itself felt in a
multiplicity of ways. Not to acknowledge it, and not to make provision
for it, is, on the part of an employer, penny wise and pound foolish—
to put the matter on the lowest ground.
VIEW OF LOKOJA AND NATIVE TOWN FROM MOUNT PATTEY, LOOKING S.E.
—THE BENUE IN THE DISTANCE.

At Idah we leave Southern Nigeria. That bold bluff of red

sandstone crowned with grey-trunked baobabs and nodding palms—
black with roosting and repulsive vultures—which overhangs the
river at this point, stands out at the dying of the day, a sentinel
pointing to the north. Henceforth the appearance of the country
undergoes a remarkable transformation, more and more
accentuated with every hour’s steaming. High valleys, slopes and
tablelands; a sparser vegetation; masses of granite or red sandstone
vomited promiscuously from broken, arid plains and taking on
fantastic shapes; in the distance, mountain ranges and solitary
rounded eminences—on our right, King William’s range rising to
1200 feet, on our left, Mounts Jervis, Erskine, Soraxte, and many
others, varying from 400 to 1000 feet. The river curves, winds and
narrows, obstructed here and there by dangerous boulders, which
the falling waters bring into view. More substantial, better-thatched
huts appear upon the banks, and around them an increasing number
of robed Africans. Plantations of yams, and guinea corn set out on
parallel, raised ridges, attest a higher skill in cultivation. Cattle are
seen cropping the green stuffs near the water’s edge, and canoes
pass bearing cattle, sheep and goats to some neighbouring market.
We enter the spreading domain of Mohammedan civilization, and
before long we shall find ourselves in a new world, as our gallant
little vessel, none the worse for a narrowly averted collision and
grounding on a sandbank or two, casts anchor at Lokoja. Here
beneath the wooded heights of Mount Patte the wonderful prospect
afforded by the junction of the Niger and Benue unfolds itself, and
presently we shall mingle with robed and turbaned African humanity,
come from immense distances to this great market of the middle
Niger. The mangroves of the Delta, the awesome grandeur of the
forests, these are left far behind. We have entered the uplands of the
North.
 CHAPTER II
NORTHERN NIGERIA PRIOR TO THE BRITISH OCCUPATION

The political events of which Northern Nigeria was the scene last
century are well known, but a brief recapitulation of them is
necessary by way of introduction to the study of its present
conditions, the life of its people, and the accomplishments and
problems of the British Administration.
In the opening years of the nineteenth century, what is now
Northern Nigeria consisted of the shattered remnants of the once
famous Bornu Empire; of seven independent states more or less
(generally less) controlled by chieftains of the remarkable so-called
“Hausa” race, invaders of a thousand years before “out of the East,”
and of the aboriginal inhabitants whose origin is lost in the mists of
antiquity. Scattered throughout the region and constantly shifting
their habitat in response to the necessities of their calling, were
tribes of light-coloured straight-haired people, Fulani, nomadic
herdsmen and shepherds. From the ranks of these people, spread
over West Africa from the Senegal to the Chad, had sprung from
time to time political leaders, divines and men of letters who had
played a conspicuous part in the history of the old Niger civilizations.
The Hausa Chieftains had established a nominal authority over a
wide expanse of territory and were constantly at war with the
aborigines on their borders. It was not, however, for warlike feats, but
for their commerce, farming, cotton and leather industry; for the
spread of their language; for the great centres of human activity they
had formed and for the fertility and prosperity of the land which they
had made their home, that the Hausas were justly renowned all over
Western and Northern Africa. They had evolved no great imperial
dominion whose various parts acknowledged a central Head, such,
alternately, as Melle, Ghanata, Kanem and Bornu; but they had
leavened with their intelligence and fertilised with their industrial
achievements some of the naturally richest areas of tropical West
Africa, and they had earned for themselves in these respects a
widespread fame.
 It was at this period that a learned Fulani, Othman Fodio, fell foul
of the chieftain ruling over the most ancient and aristocratic of the
Hausa States, Gober. The latter, fearing for his authority, ordered all
the Fulani in his country to be slaughtered, with the result that
Othman found himself at the head of a numerous following.
Emerging successfully from the struggle, Othman preached a jihad,
confided sacred standards to his worthiest captains and despatched
them far and wide. The Hausa Chieftains were successively
overthrown and replaced by Fulani, and regions unassimilated
previously by the Hausas were occupied. Othman’s warriors even
crossed the Niger and invaded Yorubaland, a large part of which
they conquered and retained (Ilorin), the forest belt, Yoruba
resistance within it, and, probably, the tsetse fly proving an
insurmountable barrier to further progress southwards. Down the
Niger they advanced no further than the neighbourhood of Lokoja.
Othman adopted the title of Sarikin mussulmi, and during his life and
that of his son Bello, Hausaland experienced for the first time the
grip of a central, directing power. It is doubtful, however, if this
change in their rulers had much effect upon the mass of the
population, to whom dynastic convulsions mean very little, and it is
noteworthy that the Fulani conquerors possessed sufficient statecraft
to interfere but slightly with the complicated and efficient system of
administration and of taxation which the Hausas had introduced.
They took over the government of the towns from the Hausas, the
people in many instances assisting and welcoming them. The
general condition of the country remained pretty much what it had
been. Moreover—and this fact is significant in connection with the
arguments I shall presently adduce as regards the inspiring motive of
the Fulani uprising—such of the old Hausa families who by their
learning and piety had become invested with a special public sanctity
were not generally molested by the conquering Fulani. Thus the
Kauru, Kajura and Fatika families of Zaria, which had given birth to a
long line of Mallams, were preserved in all their authority and dignity
by Othman and his successors.
A period of comparative political quiet ensued. Othman issued
regulations, and caused them to be strictly enforced, inflicting the
severest punishments upon robbers and evil-doers generally. A
recrudescence of spiritual influence and of letters everywhere
manifested itself. Learned men flocked to Sokoto, where Othman
had built his capital, from West and North Africa. The trans-desert
trade revived. Security was so well established that Clapperton, who
visited the country during Bello’s reign, records the common saying
of the time that a woman could pass unmolested through the land,
even if she carried a casket of gold upon her head. With the death of
Bello the influence of the central power, enormously difficult to
maintain in any case owing to the greatness of the area and the
absence of ways of communication, declined. Administrative decay
gradually set in and extended with the years. Little by little the
authority of the Emir of Sokoto was openly questioned, in all save
spiritual matters. Allegiance slackened. Emirs quarrelled amongst
themselves. This or that chief acted on his own responsibility in
political affairs affecting the general weal, or entirely broke away
from control. The roads became infested with bands of highwaymen
whose proceedings differed in no way from the banditti of feudal
Europe. Rebellious chieftains formed robber strongholds. Military
operations degenerated into mere raiding for the capture and sale of
prisoners of war to replenish revenues from ordinary taxation which
the disturbed state of the country was causing to decrease.
There has probably been a natural tendency in recent years to
exaggerate the aggregate effect for evil upon the country which
accompanied the weakening of the Fulani dynasty. There is no proof
that the state of affairs was worse than what had obtained previous
to Othman’s jihad. It could hardly have been worse than the
condition of Western Europe at sundry stages in its history, when the
weakness of the paramount authority and the foraging and strife of
rival Barons combined to desolate the homesteads of the people and
lay waste the country side. Some notion of parallels in approaching
the events of West African history is very desirable, but not often
conspicuous. But there can be no doubt—the evidence of one’s own
eyes in ruined villages and once cultivated areas “gone to bush” is
conclusive—that when the alien Britisher arrived upon the scene as
a reforming political force, Northern Nigeria was once more urgently
in need of a power sufficiently strong to restore order. Such was the
condition of the Hausa States. In Bornu matters had gone from
disorder to chaos, culminating in the final tragedy of Rabeh’s
incursion, the slaughter of the Shehu and the sack of Kuka, the
capital.
There is no need here to describe the events which led to the
British occupation, or to narrate the circumstances attending it. We
have replaced the Fulani in supreme control of the destinies of
Northern Nigeria. We are there to stay. How are we carrying out our
self-imposed mission? What are the problems with which we have to
grapple? These are the questions to examine. But before doing so,
let us first see what manner of people they are over whom we rule
henceforth as over-lords. What is their mode of life, their principal
occupation, their character, and the material and spiritual influences
which direct their outlook and mould their existence?
 CHAPTER III
THE INDIGENOUS CIVILIZATION OF THE NORTH

An attempted reconstruction of the prehistoric period—considered

locally—of that portion of Western Central Africa, now known as
Northern Nigeria, would take up many chapters, and would be
largely founded upon conjecture. It suffices to say that in the course
of ages, through the influences of Moorish, Semitic, and probably
pre-Semitic Egyptian culture, fused in later times with Mohammedan
law, learning and religion, there has been evolved in this region a
civilization combining a curious mixture of Africa and the East, to
which no other part of the tropical or sub-tropical continent offers
even a remote parallel. And this is the more remarkable since these
territories have been separated from the east by inhospitable, mainly
waterless stretches, and from the north by vast and desolate sandy
wastes; while southwards the forest and the swamp cut them off
from all communication with the outer world by sea. The peoples
responsible for the creation of this civilization did not acquire the art
of building in stone, but, at a cost of labour and of time which must
have been gigantic (slave-labour, of course, such as built the
pyramids) they raised great cities of sun-dried clay, encompassing
them and a considerable area around, for purposes of cultivation and
food-supply, with mighty walls. These walls, from twenty to fifty feet
high and from twenty to forty feet thick at the base, in the case of the
larger cities, they furnished with ponderous and deep towered
entrances, protecting the gates with crenellated loop-holes and
digging deep moats outside. They learned to smelt iron and tin; to
tan and fabricate many leather articles durable and tasteful in
design; to grow cotton and fashion it into cloth unrivalled for
excellence and beauty in all Africa; to work in silver and in brass; to
dye in indigo and the colouring juice of other plants; to develop a
system of agriculture including (in certain provinces) irrigated
farming, which, in its highest forms, has surprised even experts from
Europe; to build up a great trade whose ramifications extend
throughout the whole western portion of the continent; to accumulate