INDIAN HOTEL INDUSTRY

Premium hotel inventory addition is

expected to lag demand, grow at a
CAGR of 4.5-5.0% over FY2024 to
FY2026
JANUARY 2024
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM
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Highlights
Click to Provide Feedback
Industry sustains strong performance
over the last several months. Revenues
are expected to witness double-digit
growth in FY2024, while margins are
likely to be significantly higher than
pre-Covid levels.
Premium hotel inventory addition
expected at a 3-year CAGR of 4.5-5%;
would lag demand growth, thus
keeping ARRs at elevated levels.
Increase in per room construction cost
by 20-25% compared to pre-Covid
levels, with cost inflation.
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM
▪ ICRA estimates pan-India premium hotel occupancy to rise further to ~70-72% in FY2024, after recovering to
68-70% in FY2023. Pan-India premium hotel average room rate (ARR) is expected at ~Rs. 6,300-6,400 in
FY2024. While the occupancy is projected at decadal highs, the RevPAR is likely to remain at a 15-20%
discount to the FY2008 peak. Sustenance of demand from domestic leisure travel, MICE and business travel,
along with rise in FTAs has supported operating metrics in YTD FY2024. The industry has also benefitted from
the G20 summit and ICC Men’s World Cup 2023.
▪ The healthy demand has resulted in a pick-up in supply announcements over the last 15-18 months. In ICRA’s
estimate, the incremental premium supply is concentrated in select markets with NCR and Mumbai
accounting for a bulk of the inventory. The premium supply pipeline for FY2024-FY2026 has increased by 25-
30% compared to that anticipated for the same period a year ago, because of fresh signings and
announcements.
▪ However, the hotel supply pipeline is expected to grow at a 3-year CAGR of only 4.5-5%, adding
approximately 13,500 rooms to the pan-India premium inventory of ~1 lakh rooms, across 12 key cities. This
will facilitate an upcycle, as demand improves over the medium term while supply will lag demand with a
cautious expansion approach by hoteliers and absence of any major announcements during the Covid period.
The current inventory growth is significantly lower than the rise witnessed during FY2009-2013, after the
global financial crisis. A major part of the recent inventory is coming through management contracts. The
supply addition in the mid-scale segment is broadly expected to be similar to that in the premium segment.
▪ The upcoming premium inventory includes several airport hotels. Also, not many hotels are being
constructed in premium micro-markets in metros and larger cities, due to land availability issues. Greenfield
projects are largely in suburbs. ICRA also understands that there are sizeable supply announcements in tier-II
leisure, business, religious destinations, stemming from demand and market penetration potential. The
supply in Tier-II cities is largely in the midscale segment.
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Industry occupancy to reach decadal highs in FY2024

Exhibit: Indian Premium Hotel Market – Long-Term Trend in Operating Metrics

The Up-Cycle The Down-Cycle The Recovery The Recovery

69% Covid-19
9,000 90%
72% 72%
67%
71%
65% 66% 67% 66% 70-72%72-74%
60% 60% 61% 60% 60% 63%
58% 58% 58% 68-70%
6,000 40%-42% 60%
26%-28%

3,600-3,7000

5,800-5,900

6,300-6,400

6,400-6,600
4,200-4,400
3,000 30%
4,197

6,775
3,232

3,546

5,333

7,132

8,191

8,036

6,878

6,743

6,518

6,307

6,245

6,263

6,885

6,994

7,223

5,850
0 0%
FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23P FY24P FY25P

ARR (In Rs. LHS) Occupancy (% LHS)

▪ ICRA estimates pan-India premium-hotel RevPAR at Rs. 4,400-4,600 in FY2024, against Rs. 3,900-4,100 in FY2023. While the occupancy is expected to be at
decadal highs, the RevPAR is projected to remain at 15-20% discount to the FY2008 peak.
▪ Sustenance of demand from domestic leisure travel, MICE and business travel, along with rise in FTAs has supported operating metrics in YTD FY2024. The
industry has also benefitted from the G20 summit and ICC Men’s World Cup 2023.

Source: ICRA Research s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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Supply to lag demand over the medium term

Exhibit: Inventory in the Domestic Premium Hotel Industry Exhibit: Demand-Supply Trend for the Indian Premium Hotel Industry

1,20,000 5% 5% 6% 10% 9-10%

4% 8-9% 8-9% 8-9%
1,00,000 5% 8%
4%
80,000 3% 4% 5% 5%
6%
60,000 3% 3% 4%
2% 3%
4%
40,000 3-yr CAGR of 4.5-5.0% (FY2023-26), 2%
~13,500 rooms 2%
20,000 1%
- 0% 0%
FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024P FY2025P FY2026P FY2023 FY2024P FY2025P FY2026P

Total premium rooms (LHS) Growth (%) RHS Supply Demand

Source: ICRA Research; data captures premium supply in 12 cities pan India (Mumbai, NCR, Chennai, Pune, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Goa, Kolkata, Chandigarh, Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Vishakapatnam)

▪ ICRA’s premium room inventory database (12 key cities) across the country indicates a CAGR of ~4.5-5.0% during FY2023-FY2026. Although supply
announcements have picked up in the last 15-18 months, supply is expected to lag demand over the next few years, based on the pipeline thus far. Not many
hotels are being constructed in premium micro-markets in metros and larger cities, due to land availability issues.
▪ The premium supply pipeline for FY2024-FY2026 has increased by 25-30% (~2,750-3,000 incremental keys) compared to that anticipated for the same period
one year ago, because of fresh signings and announcements.

s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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Current supply pipeline lower than that post the FY2009 global financial crisis

Exhibit: Comparison of Supply Growth Post Crises

30%
CAGR of 17.2%

25%
20%
15%
CAGR of 4.5-5.0%
10%
5%
0%
FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 FY2023 FY2024P FY2025P FY2026P
Supply Post the Global Financial Crisis (FY2010-13) Supply Pipeline for the Period (FY2023-26)
FY2025

Source: ICRA Research; data captures premium supply in 12 cities pan India (Mumbai, NCR, Chennai, Pune, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Goa, Kolkata, Chandigarh, Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Vishakapatnam)

▪ Compared to the previous downcycle in FY2009, which saw untimely supply increases of over 15% of the inventory at the bottom of the cycle in FY2009-2013,
the current inventory growth is about 4.5-5% for the period FY2023-FY2026. This is expected to facilitate an upcycle, as demand improves over the medium
term, and supply lags demand because of the cautious expansion approach by hoteliers and absence of any major announcements during the Covid period.
▪ The supply addition in the mid-scale segment is broadly expected to be similar to that in the premium segment.

s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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NCR and Mumbai contribute to ~42% of supply pipeline over the medium term

Exhibit: Estimate of Supply Addition in Premium Category in Key Indian Markets Exhibit: Estimate of Premium Hotel Supply Inventory Pan India

22,450

25,100
30,000 17,300 1,15,000

14,750
1,10,000
14,250

12,170

10,750
20,000
1,05,000

9,500
9,250
8,900

7,450
6,550

6,350
6,000

1,13,400
1,03,000

1,08,550
1,00,000

99,850
10,000
95,000
0 90,000
Mumbai NCR Chennai Hyderabad Bengaluru Goa Pune FY2023 FY2024E FY2025P FY2026P
FY2023 FY2026P

Exhibit: Growth Rate in Premium Supply in Key Indian Markets

3-yr CAGR
FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024P FY2025P FY2026P
(FY23-FY26)
Mumbai 5% 1% 0% 7% 7% 12% 1% 7%
NCR 0% 3% 0% 4% 1% 1% 10% 4%
Chennai 3% -1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1%
Hyderabad 8% 0% 0% 0% 3% 2% 8% 4%
Bengaluru 3% 2% 2% 5% 3% 9% 8% 7%
Goa 3% 6% 7% 10% 5% 4% 4% 4%
Kolkata 20% 1% 0% 4% 2% 5% 0% 2%
Pune 4% 0% 0% 0% 4% 2% 0% 2%
Pan India 4% 2% 3% 5% 3% 5% 4% 4.5-5.0%

Source: ICRA Research; supply addition estimated in Q4 of a financial year is factored in the pipeline of the next financial
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 year for analytical
10:21:18 purposes
AM
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Supply to come in both gateway and leisure destinations in the premium category

Exhibit: Sample List of Key Supply Announcements (Indian Premium Hotel industry)

▪ Hilton Sohna Resort & Spa ▪ Raffles (50 keys) ▪ Radisson Collection
▪ Hyatt Regency, Airoli ▪ Ramada by Wyndham
(165 keys) ▪ Waldorf Astoria Hotel Hyderabad
(280 keys), Goa Arpora (65 keys)
▪ Holiday Inn Gurgaon NH8 (139 Jaipur (225 keys) Financial District (300
▪ Vivanta, Thane (122 ▪ Voco Goa Arpora (110
keys) ▪ Wyndham Grand keys)
keys) keys)
▪ Voco Gurugram Golf Course Jaipur Amer (310 ▪ Curio Collection by
▪ Voco Mumbai Powai ▪ Ramada by
Extension (204 keys) keys) Hilton, Whitefield
Hotel & Convention Wyndham Goa Vagator ▪ Vivanta Sector 95A, Gurugram Bengaluru (221 keys)
Centre (134 keys) (70 keys) (160 keys) ▪ W Hotel Bengaluru
▪ Best Western, Greater Noida (176 keys)
(160 keys)

Mumbai Goa Delhi Jaipur Others

Source: ICRA Research; supply addition estimated in Q4 of a financial year is factored in the pipeline of the next financial
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 year for analytical
10:21:18 purposes;
AMdata captures supply in
12 cities pan India (Mumbai, NCR, Chennai, Pune, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Goa, Kolkata, Chandigarh, Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Vishakapatnam) ; the list is not exhaustive 66
www.icra.in
Airport hotels also comprise part of the upcoming supply (~2,500 keys)

Exhibit: Sample List of Key Airport Hotels (Recently Opened/Upcoming) in the Indian Premium Hotel industry

Mumbai Delhi

▪ Aurika, MIAL (669 keys) – Opened ▪ Taj at Delhi International Airport (390 keys)

Mumbai Noida
▪ Fairmont, near Chhatrapati Shivaji International ▪ Roseate, near Jewar International Airport (220
Airport, Terminal 2 (575 keys) keys)

Delhi Bengaluru
▪ Vivanta at Kempe Gowda International Airport
▪ Marriott Marquis, Aerocity (600 keys)
(450 keys)

Delhi Chandigarh

▪ St. Regis, Aerocity (179 keys) ▪ Novotel Mohali Airport Road (120 keys)

Source: ICRA Research s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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Several global brands make their entry into India, given the demand potential

▪ Wyndham Garden
▪ Curio Collection
Radisson Collection Voco ▪ Wyndham Grand
▪ Waldorf Astoria
▪ Trademark Collection

▪ Tribute
The Unbound Collection Anantara
▪ Marriott Marquis

Source: ICRA Research s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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New convention centres to drive business activity and in turn demand for hospitality

Exhibit: Indicative List of Convention Centres Pan India

Yashobhoomi, Dwarka - New Delhi

Bharat Mandapam, Pragati Maidan – New Delhi

Jaipur Exhibition & Convention Centre - Jaipur

Mahatma Mandir Convention and Exhibition Centre – Gandhi

Nagar

Biswa Bangla Convention Centre - Kolkata

Nita Mukesh Ambani Cultural Centre - Mumbai

Hyderabad International Convention Centre - Hyderabad

Lulu Bolgatty International Convention Centre - Kochi

▪ There are more convention centres planned in and around upcoming/recently commenced airports in places like Noida (Jewar) and Goa (Mopa).

Source: ICRA Research s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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Larger players primarily expand through the asset-light route

Exhibit: Hotel-ownership models ▪ A large part of the new supply is through management
contracts and operating leases. This is stemming from large
operators focusing on asset-light growth from an investment
standpoint and investing only in strategic destinations. Smaller
Hotel ownership land-owners/hoteliers would benefit from the network and
models trust enjoyed by larger brands. The size of the hotels which are
taken on asset-light mode ranges from 100-400 rooms,
depending on the operator’s strategy and market demand.

▪ Expansion through the asset-light mode has several advantages

Asset heavy Asset light for brand owners/operators, including strengthening of hotel
network with minimal investments (both upfront and
maintenance), since capex and opex are typically handled by
asset owners. This can result in the release of capital for other
purposes, apart from cascading into higher RoCE.

Management contract or Franchise models – where the

Where assets are owned revenue share models – asset owner runs the day-to-day ▪ Also, during downcycles, the costs for those expanding through
and capex/opex and P&L where the operator runs operations; brand owner only management contracts or franchise models, are largely capped
are on the owner the hotel on day-to-day shares broad guidelines and to loss of operator fee, as against deep losses for asset owners
basis must-haves because of the relatively high fixed costs involved in running an
owned hotel.

Source: ICRA Research s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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Management contracts are preferred mode in the asset-light model in India

There are more management contracts than franchisees in India, as global chains look to build their capabilities and
processes for the strategically-important Indian market.

Franchises are usually given in cases where the operator does not have expertise in the market or where asset owners
have proven hotel business-running capabilities.

The operator fee has multiple components and works to ~6-8% of hotel’s topline on an average, although it could vary
significantly between contracts. It is largely a direct pass-through to operating profits for the brand owner, with all
expenses borne by the asset owner.

Brands and number of keys chosen for a particular hotel depend on demand dynamics and market absorption potential.

The operators could enter into agreements with landowners at early or later stages of construction, or even when the
hotel is operating in the case of conversions.

The pay-back period for an asset owner is about 7-8 years, and several real estate players are looking at investing hotel
assets as a diversification opportunity, with better returns.

Source: ICRA Research s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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Other trends visible in upcoming supply

Land availability in metros and larger cities is a challenge - Not many hotels are being
constructed in premium micro-markets in metros and larger cities, due to land availability
issues. Addition to premium hotel supply in these areas is largely on account of rebranding or
property upgradation. Greenfield projects are largely in suburbs.

Tier-II cities gaining traction - Sizeable supply announcements in tier-II leisure (Agra,
Mahabaleshwar, Ranthambore, North East, etc), business, religious destinations (Ayodhya,
Tirupati, Vrindavan, Varanasi, Amritsar, etc), stemming from demand and market penetration
potential. The supply in Tier-II cities is largely in the midscale segment.

Several hotels undergoing refurbishments/upgrades - Premium hotels need periodic

maintenance/refurbishment and most have undertaken the same previously a long time ago.
As a result, several properties are undergoing renovations or have planned renovations in the
next few months, funded by the healthy business cash flows and keeping in mind the medium-
term demand prospects. An upgraded property also results in higher ARRs in upcycles.

Increase in per room cost – There is an increase in per room construction cost by 20-25%, with
cost inflation compared to pre-Covid levels. The per room cost for 5-star rooms ex-land is Rs.
1.5-2.0 crore per room while that of budget hotels is Rs. 0.5 to 0.6 crore per room.

Source: ICRA Research s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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At present, 97% of ICRA’s portfolio is on Stable outlook

2020 2022 2024

Jan January 1, 2020 March March 2021 Jan January 2024

Stable:92%
Stable: 92% VS Stable: 30% VS Stable: 97%

4% 70% 3%
4% of the rated portfolio on Positive outlook 70% on Negative outlook 3% on positive Outlook
4% on Negative outlook

Source: ICRA Research; Ratings in the C and D categories s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com

do not have outlooks 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM
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Significant number of upgrades in FY2023 and YTD FY2024

Exhibit: Rating Distribution of ICRA-Rated Universe Exhibit: Count of Upgrades and Downgrades (ICRA Rated Universe)

45% 20 19
42%
40% 18
16
16 15 15
35%
14 13
30% 12
27%
12
25% 10
10
20% 18% 8 8
8
15% 6 6
6 5 5 5
8% 4 4
10% 4
5% 3% 2
2% 1
0
0% 0
AA A BBB BB B C&D FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 9M
FY2024
Upgrades (U) Downgrades (D)

Source: ICRA Research; As on January 19, 2024, and does not include issuers which are non-cooperating

s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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ICRA ratings in the hospitality sector

Company Long Term Rating Outlook Short Term Rating

Absolute Barbeque Pvt. Ltd [ICRA]BBB+ (Stable)
Apeejay Surrendra Park Hotels Limited [ICRA]BBB+ (Stable) [ICRA]A2
Ashford Properties Private Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable)
Barbeque Nation Hospitality Limited [ICRA]A (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Bhutan Ventures Hospitality Private Limited [ICRA]B+ (Stable)
Brigade Hotel Ventures Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Caddie Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Canary Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]A (Stable)
Celsia Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]A (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Chalet Hotels Limited [ICRA]A- (Positive) [ICRA]A2+
Elixir Enterprises and Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]BB- (Stable) [ICRA]A4
Eros Resorts and Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]BB (Stable) [ICRA]A4+
Fleur Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]A (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
GMR Hospitality and Retail Limited [ICRA]AA(CE), [ICRA]AA (Stable)
Gurnani Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]BB (Stable)
Hotel Excelsior Limited [ICRA]A (Stable)
Hyacinth Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]A (Stable)
Icon Hospitality Private Limited [ICRA]BBB- (Stable)
IHHR Hospitality (Andhra) Pvt.Ltd. [ICRA]BBB+ (Stable) [ICRA]A2
IHHR Hospitality Private Limited [ICRA]BBB+ (Stable)
Inovoa Hotels and Resorts Limited [ICRA]A (Stable)
Interglobe Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
IRM Private Limited (erstwhile IRM Limited) [ICRA]BBB- (Stable) [ICRA]A3
Isha Steel Treatment Private Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable)
Ksheer Sagar Developers Private Limited [ICRA]BBB- (Stable)

s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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ICRA ratings in the hospitality sector

Company Long Term Rating Outlook Short Term Rating

Laila Hotels and Resorts Pvt. Ltd. [ICRA]BB (Stable)
Lemon Tree Hotels Limited [ICRA]A (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Manglam Spa Resort Private Limited [ICRA]BB (Stable)
Mayfair Hotels & Resorts Limited [ICRA]BBB (Stable) [ICRA]A3+
Mfar Hotels & Resorts Private Limited [ICRA]BB- (Stable) [ICRA]A4
Milagro Infrastructure Private Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable)
Moonburg Power Private Limited [ICRA]BBB+ (Stable)
MPG Hotels and Infrastructure Ventures Private Limited [ICRA]BB, [ICRA]BB+ (Stable) [ICRA]A4+
Muthoot Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]BB (Stable)
Ocean Pearl Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]C+ [ICRA]A4
Orient Exchange And Financial Services (P) Ltd [ICRA]BBB- (Stable) [ICRA]A3
Oriental Hotels Limited [ICRA]A+ (Stable) [ICRA]A1
Oriole Dr. Fresh Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]A (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
P.K.M. Projects Private Limited [ICRA]D
Pinkcity Build Home Pvt Ltd [ICRA]BBB- (Stable) [ICRA]A3
Prestige Hospitality Ventures Limited [ICRA]A+(CE) (Stable)
Pride Hotels Limited [ICRA]BB+ (Stable) [ICRA]A4+
Restaurant Brands Asia Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Roots Corporation Limited [ICRA]AA- (Stable) [ICRA]A1+
Royal Orchid Hotels Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable)
Sangu Chakra Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]BB+ (Stable)
Sapphire Foods India Limited [ICRA]A (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Satyaratan Hotels [ICRA]BB- (Stable)
Sayaji Hotels Limited [ICRA]BBB+RWDI
Sparsh Infratech Pvt. Ltd. [ICRA]BBB(CE) (Stable)

s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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ICRA ratings in the hospitality sector

Company Long Term Rating Outlook Short Term Rating

SPPL Hotels Private Limited [ICRA]A+(CE) (Stable)
SRP Prosperita Hotel Ventures Limited [ICRA]BBB (Stable)
Sukhsagar Complexes Private Limited [ICRA]A (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Taj SATS Air Catering Limited [ICRA]AA- (Positive) [ICRA]A1+
TAJGVK Hotels & Resorts Limited [ICRA]A (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
The Indian Hotels Company Limited [ICRA]AA+ (Stable) [ICRA]A1+
Triton Hotels & Resorts Private Limited [ICRA]A- (Stable) [ICRA]A2+
Tulsi Palace Resort Private Limited [ICRA]BBB+ (Stable)
Varun Hospitality Private Limited [ICRA]BBB (Stable) [ICRA]A3+
Wonderla Holidays Limited [ICRA]AA- (Stable) [ICRA]A1+

Source: ICRA Research; As on January 19, 2024, and doess.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com

not include issuers which are non-cooperating 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM
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s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:18 AM

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