Professional Documents
Culture Documents
CR-2024-Q4-2-ICRA-RE Office REITs
CR-2024-Q4-2-ICRA-RE Office REITs
CR-2024-Q4-2-ICRA-RE Office REITs
JANUARY 2024
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:01 AM
1
Highlights
Total Grade A office supply for the top seven cities in India stood at ~956 million square feet (msf) as
on September 30, 2023. Bangalore leads the supply with a share of 25%, followed by Delhi NCR
(20%), MMR (18%), Hyderabad (14%), Pune (11%), Chennai (8%) and Kolkata (4%). Around 53-55% of
the upcoming supply in FY2024 and FY2025 is in the Hyderabad and Bangalore markets.
Click to Provide Feedback
As of September 2023, there are three listed office REITs in India, namely Embassy REIT, Mindspace
REIT-ready office assets are estimated REIT and Brookfield India REIT (BIRET), which accounted for 9% of total Grade A office supply across
at 511 msf in top seven cities, the top seven cities. REIT office supply increased by 3.3 times in the last five years, wherein
indicating a significant potential for Bangalore led with the REIT office share of 28%, followed by MMR (20%) and Pune (13%). The IT and
further REIT listings. BFSI segments accounted for 55-60% of rentals across the REIT portfolio.
Top seven cities include Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi NCR, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) and Pune
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com
To arrive at REIT-ready office spaces, ICRA has included developers 1/31/2024
with at least 1 million sft of Grade A office space across top 710:21:01 AM occupancy of 75% as
cities with a minimum 22
on September 30, 2023. www.icra.in
Agenda
4 5
Rating Actions in Commercial
REIT-Ready Office Spaces
Real Estate
₹ Outlook – FY2025
Occupancy to decline Contracted rent escalations & Leverage to ease in FY2025 Coverage to improve on the
marginally new tie-ups to support rentals back of increase in NOI
& NOI
Occupancy to dip to around 83.8- Debt-to-NOI ratio expected to DSCR is expected to remain healthy
Rental inflow and net operating
84.0% during FY2024 and FY2025 improve to 4.5-4.6x in FY2025 from at 1.35x in FY2025 compared to
income (NOI) expected to increase by
estimated levels of 5.2-5.3x in 1.25x in FY2024
11-12% in FY2025
FY2024, supported by higher NOI
REIT office space accounts for ~9% of Grade A office supply as of September 2023
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:01 AM
6
Overview of office REITs in India
Exhibit 1: REITs account for 9% of total Grade A office supply in top 7 cities Exhibit 2: REIT office space increased by 3.3 times in last 5 years
million sft
60
91% REIT
23.9 24.2 25.7 26.1
2% 24.8 26.2
30
26.2 32.3 33.8 34.3 35.3
Embassy REIT 24.8
4% 0
Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Sep-23
Embassy REIT Mindspace REIT Brookfield India REIT
Source: Propequity, ICRA Research
Exhibit 3: SEZ area accounts for ~64% of operational REIT supply Exhibit 4: REITs city-wise office space (in msf) and occupancy
Pune
Noida
Gurugram
Kolkata
Chennai
Hyderabad
Bangalore
Mumbai
64%
Occupancy
Source: ICRA Research; data as on September 30, 2023
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:01 AM
77
www.icra.in
IT/ITes and BFSI sectors lead gross rental contribution across REIT portfolio
21% 14%
IT/ITes IT/ITes
Exhibit 7: Brookfield India REIT Exhibit 8: Trends in occupancy of office REITs during FY2019–H1 FY2024
94% 91%
24% Technology 100% 83% 84% 87%
80%
30%
BFSI
Consulting 50%
4% Healthcare
4%
Industrials & Logistics
0%
Others Embassy REIT Mindspace REIT Brookfield India REIT
16% 22%
Source: ICRA Research Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Sep-23
Name of the entity Embassy REIT Mindspace REIT Brookfield India REIT
Embassy Property K Raheja Corp Investment Managers Brookfield Group (BSREP India Office
Sponsor
Developments Private Limited Private Limited Holdings Pvt. Ltd)
Date of listing April 01, 2019 Aug 07, 2020 Feb 16, 2021
Amount raised at listing in Rs. crore 4750 4500 3800
Subscription (times) 2.57 12.96 7.94
Offer Price 300 275 275
Listing Price 312 304 282
Unit price as on Dec 31, 2023 324.65 323.29 235.43
Sponsor holding as on Sep 30, 2023 7.7% 63.5% 43.9%
Yield on IPO price as on Sep 30, 2023 7.3% 7.0% 6.0%
Date November 2020 March 2023 September 2023 February 2022 August 2023
Condor Techspace G1* &
Asset Embassy Techvillage Embassy Business Hub Commerzone Porur, Chennai Candor Techspace N2
Downtown, Powai*
Acquisitions Valuation Rs. 9782 crore Rs. 335 crore Rs. 182 crore Rs. 3966 crore Rs. 11,916 crore
10%
5%
0%
Embassy REIT Mindspace REIT Brookfield India REIT
Source: ICRA Research; Net LTV – net debt/Valuation s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:01 AM
10
10
www.icra.in
Debt composition of listed REITs
Exhibit 9: Debt mix at REIT and SPV level for office REITs Exhibit 10: Instrument wise debt mix*
100% 100%
35% 30%
50% 75% 44%
0% 7% 0% 7%
Embassy REIT Mindspace REIT Brookfield India REIT Embassy REIT Mindspace REIT Brookfield India REIT
REIT level (%) SPV level (%) Non Convertible Debentures Term loans
Exhibit 11: Trend of NCDs raised by Mindspace REIT Exhibit 12: Trend of NCDs raised by Embassy REIT
600 8.0% 8.0% 7.8% 8.0% 10% 3000 7.8% 8.1% 8.0% 8.2% 10.00%
6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 7.1% 7.4%
6.7% 6.8%
400 2000
5% 5.00%
200 1000
75 2600 300 2500 2000 1000 1050 1000
500 500 550 500 500 500 500
0 0% 0 0.00%
Mar-21 Feb-22 Jul-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Jan-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Oct-21 Apr-22 Jun-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 Jan-24
Issue Size in Rs. crore Coupon Rate (%) Issue Size in Rs. crore Coupon Rate (%)
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com
Source: ICRA Research; *Brookfield India REIT doesn’t have 1/31/2024
any listed NCDs at REIT level. It has one listed commercial Paper 10:21:01 AM
11
11
www.icra.in
Comparison of REIT NCD coupons with G-sec and corporate bond yields
Borrowing spread for REIT over similar tenure G-Sec/Corporate bonds has reduced substantially in recent times
8.5%
8.0% 8.1%
8.0%
8.0% 7.8%
44 bps
7.4%
7.5%
7.1%
7.0% 6.8%
6.4% 96 bps
6.5% 72 bps
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
10/1/2022
1/1/2023
1/1/2021
2/1/2021
3/1/2021
4/1/2021
5/1/2021
6/1/2021
7/1/2021
8/1/2021
9/1/2021
10/1/2021
11/1/2021
12/1/2021
1/1/2022
2/1/2022
3/1/2022
4/1/2022
5/1/2022
6/1/2022
7/1/2022
8/1/2022
9/1/2022
11/1/2022
12/1/2022
2/1/2023
3/1/2023
4/1/2023
5/1/2023
6/1/2023
7/1/2023
8/1/2023
9/1/2023
10/1/2023
11/1/2023
12/1/2023
1/1/2024
G-SEC Corporate REIT
90% 89% 88% ▪ ICRA estimates SEZ space accounting for ~64% of total operational REIT
87% supply as on September 30, 2023.
86% 86%
85% 85% 85%
85% 84% ▪ Ever since direct tax benefits were taken away for SEZ units in March 2020,
they were less attractive as there was no major benefit provided to tenants.
81%
80% In addition, the Government of India had proposed introducing the
80% Development of Enterprise and Service Hubs (DESH) Bill to implement
reforms for SEZs. This had caused uncertainty among tenants of these
75% spaces who had either deferred to renew their lease or not taken up new
75%
spaces, leading to higher vacancy since December 2020.
▪ In December 2023, the Government of India announced partial and floor-
70% wise denotification of IT-SEZs. This would allow the denotification of certain
parts of SEZ buildings as non-SEZ spaces and lease it to tenants. This
intervention by the GoI is expected to revive the attractiveness of SEZ
65%
Embassy REIT Mindspace REIT Brookfield REIT spaces, transforming them to dynamic offices.
REIT-ready office space of 510 msf with investment opportunity of Rs. 5.8–6.2 lakh crore
across top seven cities
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:01 AM
15
REIT-ready office supply stands at 6-6.5 times of current REITs’ operational area
Exhibit 14: Around 53-54% of India’s Grade A office space is REIT-ready (September 2023)
Source: Propequity, ICRA Research; To arrive at REIT-ready office spaces, ICRA has included developers with at least 1 million sft of Grade A office space across top 7 cities with a minimum occupancy of 75%
as of September 30, 2023.
▪ As of September 2023, total Grade A office supply stood at 956 msf across the top seven cities. Of this around 82.1 msf (9%) made up the existing REIT supply.
REIT-ready office space is estimated at 510 msf (53-54%) of total office supply, indicating a significant potential for further REIT listings in the commercial office
space.
▪ REIT-ready office supply has the potential to increase the market by 6.0-6.5 times.
Exhibit 15: Trend of rental rates (in Rs./sft) for listed office REITs Exhibit 16: Range of rental rates for REIT-ready assets across markets
90 84
79 81
75 Consolidated
71 70 95
75 65 65 68 116
63 64 MMR
60 148
60 56 83
Bangalore
91
Delhi NCR 71
45 89
Pune 79
30 86
Chennai 68
76
15 Hyderabad 65
75
0 Kolkata 50
59
Embassy REIT Mindspace REIT Brookfield India REIT
Source: ICRA Research; Excluding rental rates of any new acquisitions during Mar 2021-Sep 2023 Source: ICRA Research, Propequity
▪ Average lease rentals of listed REITs’ office portfolio are lower than REIT-ready assets due to a higher share of SEZ offices in current REIT assets (64% share) and
their presence limited to certain micro-markets.
Exhibit 17: City-wise distribution of REIT-ready office space Exhibit 18: Investment for REIT-ready office space
Chennai 47 - 50
Kolkata 12 - 13
Exhibit 19: Rating distribution of ICRA-rated entities Exhibit 20: Count of upgrades and downgrades
20
6%
10% 15
AAA
39% 10
AA
A 5
46%
BBB 0
FY2019 FY2020 FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 9M FY2024
Upgrades Downgrades Credit ratio
Source: ICRA Research; Excludes rating actions due to issuer non-cooperation Source: ICRA Research; Excludes rating actions due to issuer non-cooperation
▪ The rating distribution of entities in the office leasing segment is skewed towards higher rating categories with the median rating falling in the A category. This
reflects the high degree of consolidation in the industry with larger developers benefiting from their established market position and access to capital.
▪ There were five upgrades and four downgrades (of which three are part of the same group) in 9M FY2024. Healthy increase in pre-leasing, thereby mitigating
refinancing risk for the under-construction asset, and improvement in occupancy levels for the operational portfolio, resulting in improvement in debt
protection metrics, were the major reasons for the upgrades in 9M FY2024. For the three entities, which are part of the same group, delay in ramp-up of
occupancy levels and increase in indebtedness adversely impacted the debt protection metrics and resulted in a rating downgrade. Space rationalisation from a
major tenant and the resultant moderation in debt protection metrics were the reasons for another downgrade.
s.sahu@adityabirlacapital.com 1/31/2024 10:21:01 AM
20
20
www.icra.in
Annexure 1: Other Developments
▪ In November 2023, SEBI introduced a new regulatory framework for small and medium REITs amending REIT Regulations of 2014. The key
amendments are:
• Asset value requirement: Small and medium REITs can have asset value of at least Rs. 50 crore against Rs. 500 crore for existing REITs
• Scheme creation: Small and medium REITs can establish separate schemes for owning real estate assets through SPVs. Mandatory
registration of existing Fractional Ownership Platforms (FOPs) and new ones under SEBI
Small and medium REITs will provide an opportunity for small Grade A and majority of the Grade B office developers to deleverage. Also, Fractional
Ownership Platforms are expected to get formalised and thereby get wider acceptance from the market.
Rajeshwar Burla Senior Vice President & Group Head rajeshwar.burla@icraindia.com 040 – 6939 6443
Anupama Reddy Vice President & Co Group Head anupama.reddy@icraindia.com 040 – 6939 6427
Abhishek Lahoti Assistant Vice President & Sector Head abhishek.lahoti@icraindia.com 040 – 6939 6433
Vipin Saboo Head Business Development – Corporate Sector - West & East vipin.saboo@icraindia.com 022-61693348
Shivam Bhatia Head Business Development – Corporate Sector - North & South shivam.bhatia@icraindia.com 0124-4545803