Côt� d’Ivoir� Economic Outlook: Und�rst�ndin� th� Ch�ll�n��s of Urb�ni��tion in H�i�ht Ch�rts

February 2019

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Most of the world’s ministers of Economy and Finance would welcome the key
macroeconomic results recently posted by Côte d’Ivoire. The World Bank’s latest Economic
Update for Côte d’Ivoire notes that, for the seventh consecutive year, growth is projected to
surpass the 7% mark to reach 7.4% in 2018. Real per capita GDP grew by 32% over the same
period. At this pace, Côte d’Ivoire could become a middle-income country in about 15 years,
provided it promotes a more inclusive economy and controls rapid urbanization.
A country’s economic growth must be well redistributed if it is to be sustainable in the long
run. Although the most recent statistical data on poverty (2015)[1] show that domestic
revenue increased by 80% between 2012 and 2015 and that poverty is falling in Côte d’Ivoire
for the �rst time in 40 years, this reduction has been small (from 51% to 46.3%), as the
number of poor Ivorians is the same as in 2008 (roughly 10.7 million). In 2015, close to 46%
of Ivorians still lived on less than CFAF 750 a day (approximately $1.30).

The country is grappling with economic and geographical inequalities. While there are more
poor people in rural than in urban areas—56.8% versus 35.9% (of whom 22.7% are in
Abidjan)—this gap has been narrowing over time. Between 2008 and 2015, the poverty rate
in rural areas fell by 5.7% and increased by 6.4% in urban centers. In addition, the northern
and northwestern regions of the country have higher poverty rates (over 60%) than coastal
areas and the southwestern region (under 40%).

As is the case in most countries around the world—and at a much faster clip than in the
average Sub-Saharan country—cities are expanding at breakneck speed in Côte d’Ivoire. The
rate of urbanization soared from 17.7% in 1960 to over 50% in 2018. Among African nations
with over 5 million people, Côte d’Ivoire is the third most urbanized country, behind
Cameroon and Ghana.

By helping enterprises be more productive and providing households with more job
opportunities, schools for their children, and better health care than in rural areas,
controlled urbanization could have a bene�cial impact and foster a more inclusive economy.
Urban residents in Côte d’Ivoire are currently grappling with a host of challenges, especially
with respect to transportation.

On a daily basis, more than 10 million trips are made to Abidjan and each household spends
on average CFAF 1,075 and loses more than three hours in commuting time. In other words,
more than CFAF 4 billion (roughly $6.9 million) is spent each day (in terms of money and
opportunity cost)—the equivalent of CFAF 1,200 billion each year (about $2.4 billion). This
expenditure ranks third in household budgets (after food and housing), accounting for
roughly 5% of national GDP in 2017.

Residents in outlying neighborhoods are most adversely a�ected because their trips are
longer (78 minutes per trip compared to an average of 33 minutes). Total transport costs can
account for up to 30% of the income of poor households and a mere 5% of the budgets of
the wealthiest households.

These mobility challenges in Abidjan are due in part to the de�cient transport infrastructure
that is unevenly distributed across the country and deteriorates rapidly. They are also
attributable to the virtual absence of public transport and the mushrooming of informal
modes of transport that cannot remedy this problem as they are more unsafe and increase
pollution. Fewer than one in ten trips is via public transport—approximately four times less
than in a city of comparable size in Europe.
First, a coherent urban transport vision and an institutional framework that involves all
mobility stakeholders must be de�ned if the Greater Abidjan project adopted in 2016 is to be
successful. The second approach targets better integration of the transport system, with a
view to o�ering several transport options to get around the city, by improving mass transit
along the main corridors and developing neighborhood transport networks. The �nal
approach involves the use of new technologies that would facilitate travel and improve
management of the �ow of persons and goods.

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