CHAPTER 4

SPECIAL PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

SPD

Discrete Continuous

Binomial Poisson Normal

𝑛 ≥ 30
𝑝 < 0.1

𝑛𝑝 > 5
𝑛𝑞 > 5

Note: 𝑛 = number of sample

𝑝 = success
𝑞 = failure
DISCRETE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION
There are two types of discrete special probability distribution:

1. Binomial (success/failure)
2. Poisson (involve time/measurement)

BINOMAIL POISSON

𝑋~𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝) 𝑋~𝑃𝑜 (𝜇)

Discrete distribution that comes from an Discrete distribution that occur over a
experiment which has only period of time/measurement/space.
outcomes in 𝑛 number of trial.
𝑒 −𝜇 𝜇 𝑟
𝑃(𝑋 = 𝑟) =
P  X  r   nC r p r q n  r 𝑟!
r  0,1, 2, n 𝑟 = 0,1,2, ⋯ ∞

Example: when a baby is born, it is wither Example: Number of times a computer

male or female. breaks down in three months.

Mean 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 Mean 𝐸(𝑋) = 𝜇

Variance 𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 Variance 𝑉𝑎𝑟 (𝑋) = 𝜇

SD 𝜎 = √𝑛𝑝𝑞 𝜇 = mean number of outcomes

𝑟 = number of event
𝑝 = probability of success 𝑋 = number of success outcome in given
𝑞 = probability of failure time/ space interval
𝑛 = total number of sample

Example 1 (BINOMAIL):

60% of all Malaysian have hair fall problem. If random sample of 5 Malaysian is selected, find
the probability that

a) Exactly 3 persons have hair fall problem

b) Less than 4 persons have hair fall problem

Solution:
60
𝑝 = 100 = 0.6 𝑞 = 1 − 0.6 = 0.4 𝑛=5 ; 𝑟 = 0,1,2,3,4,5
𝑋~𝐵(5,0.6)
a) P( X  3)
 n Cr p r q n  r
 5C3  0.6   0.4 
3 5 3

 10  0.216  0.4 
2

 0.3456

b) P( X  4)
 1  P( X  5)  P( X  4)
 1  5C5  0.6   0.4   5C4  0.6   0.4 
5 0 4 1

 1  0.07776  0.2592
 0.66304
Example 2 (BINOMAIL):

A safety engineer claims that 35% of all workers wear safety helmet during lunch. If 6 persons
are chosen at random, find the probability that

a) exactly 4 persons
b) less than 3 persons
c) at most 5 persons

wear safety helmet during lunch.

Solution:
35
𝑝 = 100 = 0.35 𝑞 = 1 − 0.35 = 0.65 𝑛 = 6 ; 𝑟 = 0,1,2,3,4,5,6

𝑋~𝐵(6,0.35)

a) P( X  4)
 n Cr p r q n  r
 6C4  0.35   0.65 
4 6 4

 15  0.15  0.4225
 0.9506

b) P( X  3)
 P( X  0)  P( X  1)  P( X  2)
 6C0  0.35   0.65   6C1  0.35   0.65   6C2  0.35   0.65 
0 60 1 6 1 2 62

 0.0754  0.2437  0.328

 0.6471
 c) P( X  5)
 1  P( X  6)
 1  6C6  0.35   0.65 
6 66

 1  0.0018
 0.9982
Example 3 (BINOMAIL-Using table):

The probability that a patient recovers from cancer is 0.15. If 20 people are known to have cancer,
what is the probability that:

a) At least 4 will recover?

b) at most 3 will recover?
c) 5 to 7 will recover?

Solution:

a) 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4) = 0.3523 (From the table)

b) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4)
= 1 − 0.3523
= 0.6477
c) 𝑃(5 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 7) = 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 5) − 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 8) (From the table)
= 0.1702 − 0.0059
= 0.1643

Exercise:

1) The probability of a hunter successfully shoot a monkey from 6 is 0.75. Find the probability
that the hunter:
a) Will hit at least 5 monkeys
b) Will hit at least 1 monkey
2) Random variable 𝑋 is binomially distributed with 𝑛 = 50 and 𝑝 = 0.4. By using binomial
probability table, find:
a) 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 15)
b) 𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 10)
c) 𝑃(𝑋 > 20)
d) 𝑃(𝑋 = 12)
e) 𝑃(20 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 28)
f) 𝑃(20 ≤ 𝑋 < 28)

Answer: 1a) 0.53393 b) 0.99976

0.5375
2a) 0.9460 b) 0.0022 c) 0.4390 d) 0.0076 e) 0.5459 f) 0.5475
Example 4 (POISSON):

If the average free donuts given per week by a bakery is 12, find the probability that 4 donuts
will be given per week. Then, find the mean and standard deviation.

Solution:

𝜇 = 12
𝑟=4
𝑋~𝑃0 (12)
𝑒 −𝜇 𝜇 𝑟
𝑃(𝑋 = 4) =
𝑟!
𝑒 −12 124
=
4!
= 0.0053

Mean = 𝜇 = 12
Varian = 12

Example 5 (POISSON – Using Table):

The mean of the number of truck that use road T is 8 per hour. Compute the probability that
more
a) 3 or ore truck will use road T in one hour
b) Not more than 3 truck will use road T in half an hour

Solution:

𝑋~𝑃0 (8)

a) 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 3) = 0.9862 (Using table)

b) An hour = 8
Half an hour = 4

𝑋~𝑃0 (4)

𝑃(𝑋 ≤ 3) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 ≥ 4)

= 1 − 0.5665

= 0.4335
Exercise:

An average of 5 babies are born every minute in a nation. If this rate is approximated by a
Poisson distribution, what is the probability that

a) Exactly 6 babies will be born in one minute?

b) More than 2 babies will ber born in one minute?
c) At least 5 babies will be born in 2 minutes?

Answer: a) 0.1462 b) 0.8754 c) 0.9707

Poisson approximation to Binomial distribution

Binomial Poisson

𝑛 is large, 𝑛 ≥ 30
𝑝 is small, 𝑝 < 0.1

Thus the average number of success: 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝.

𝑋~𝐵(𝑛, 𝑝) → 𝑋~𝑃0 (𝜇)

Example 6:

Random variable Y is binomially distributed with 𝑛 = 100 and 𝑝 = 0.03. Evaluate 𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 4)

a) Using binomial distribution

b) Using Poisson distribution

Solution:

a) By Binomial probability table, 𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 4) = 0.3528.

b) Since 𝑛 = 100 (≥ 30) and 𝑝 = 0.03(𝑝 < 0.1), so we could use Poisson approximation
to Binomial
𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝
= 100(0.03)
=3 𝑋~𝑃0 (𝜇3)
 𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 4) = 0.3528 (Using table)
𝑃(𝑌 ≥ 4) = 1 − 𝑃(𝑋 = 0) − 𝑃(𝑥 = 1) − 𝑃(𝑥 = 2) − 𝑃(𝑋 = 3)
= 1 − 0.0498 − 0.1494 − 0.224 − 0.224
= 0.3528

Exercise:

A small entrepreneur produced kek lapis Sarawak that is packed in boxes, which consist 100
cake in each box. The probability that a cake is rotten is 0.005. Find the probability that a
selected box will consist of two rotten cakes.

Answer: 0.0757

CONTINUOUS PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

 Bell shape graph

 𝑥 can take any numerical value

𝜎 𝜎

𝑥=𝜇

∞ ∞ 1 𝑥−𝜇 2
1
𝑒 −2[ ]
∫ 𝑓(𝑥)𝑑𝑥 = ∫ 𝜎 𝑑𝑥 =1
−∞ −∞ 𝜎√2𝜋
Standard Normal Distribution

𝑋−𝜇
𝑍=
𝜎

0 𝑧

 Bell shaped graph and symmetric about the mean

 Total area under the curve is 1
 Notation: 𝑋~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 ) → 𝑍~𝑁(𝜇, 𝜎 2 )

Example 7:

Given that the normal distributed variable 𝑋 with mean 18 and standard deviation 2.5. find:

a) 𝑃(𝑋 < 15)

b) 𝑃(𝑋 > 15)
c) 𝑃(17 < 𝑋 < 21)

Solution:

𝑋~𝑁(18, 2.52 ) or 𝑍~𝑁(18, 2.52 )

15−18
a) 𝑃(𝑋 < 15) = 𝑃 (𝑍 < )
2.5
= 𝑃(𝑍 < −1.2)
= 𝑃(𝑍 > 1.2)
= 0.1151
15−18
b) 𝑃(𝑋 > 15) = 𝑃 (𝑍 > )
2.5
= 𝑃(𝑍 > −1.2)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 > 1.2)
= 1 − 0.1151
= 0.8849
 17−18 21−18
c) 𝑃(17 < 𝑋 < 21) = 𝑃 ( <𝑍< )
2.5 2.5
= 𝑃(−0.4 < 𝑍 < 1.2)
= 1 − 𝑃(𝑍 > 0.4) − 𝑃(𝑍 > 1.2)
= 1 − 0.3446 − 0.1151
= 0.5403

Exercise:

1) The total number of patient coming to ER are normally distributed with mean 𝜇 = 500 and
standard deviation 𝜎 = 100. Find the probability that ER received the following number of
patients:
a) Between 500 and 600
b) Between 400 and 600
2) Let number of scores for an exam for 200 students are normally distributed with mean 50
and variance 16. Find the number of students who pass the exam.
3) The total number of fatty acid in a menu is normally distributed with 𝜇 = 200 and 𝜎 = 5.
Find the probability that the menu one selected at random contain
a) More than 208 fatty acid
b) Between 190 and 200 fatty acid.
4) The marks of students in a class is normally distributed with mean 70 and standard
deviation is 10. Any student whose mark is higher than 80 can be defined as genius. Let 𝑋
be the random variable that represent the marks.
a) Find the probability that a randomly selected student has mark greater than 80.
b) A male student is selected at random. Given that he is genius. Find the probability that
he has a marks greater than 90.
c) Half of the genius students have the marks greater than ‘𝑝’ mark. Find the value of 𝑝.

Answer: 1)a) 0.3413 b) 0.6827 2) 199 3)a) 0.0548 b) 0.4773

4)a) 0.1587 b)0.1434 c) 84.1 marks

Normal approximation to Binomial distribution

Binomial Normal

𝑛 is large, 𝑛 ≥ 30
𝑛𝑝 ≥ 5
𝑛𝑞 ≥ 5

Mean, 𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝.

Standard deviation, 𝜎 = √𝑛𝑝𝑞

Example 8:

Find the percentage that between 30 to 35 from 50 complaints in Unifi service will be fixed. The
probability that it will be fixed is 0.5.

Solution:

𝑛 = 50 𝑝 = 0.5 𝑞 = 0.5 𝑋~(50, 0.5)

𝑛𝑝 = 50(0.5) = 25 (𝑛𝑝 ≥ 5)
𝑛𝑞 = 50(0.5) = 25 (𝑛𝑞 ≥ 5)
Since (𝑛𝑝 ≥ 5) and (𝑛𝑞 ≥ 5) normal distribution can be used.

𝜇 = 𝑛𝑝 = 25 𝜎 2 = 𝑛𝑝𝑞 = 12.5

𝑋~𝑁(25, 3.53552 )
30.5 − 25 34.5 − 25
𝑃(30 < 𝑋 < 35) = 𝑃 ( <𝑍< )
3.5355 3.5355
= 𝑃(1.5556 < 𝑍 < 2.6870)

= 𝑃(𝑍 > 1.5556) − 𝑃(𝑍 > 2.6870)

= 0.0594 − 0.00357

= 0.05583 = 5.583%
Exercise:

62% of 12th grade attend school in an urban area. If sample of 500 students are selected, find
the probability at least 290 students are actually enrolled in school.

Answer: 0.9706