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Capital Mkt. SEM 3
Capital Mkt. SEM 3
Capital market is a market where buyers and sellers engage in trade of financial
securities like bonds, stocks, etc. The buying/selling is undertaken by
participants such as individuals and institutions.
Capital Market
1. Securities Market
2. Non-Securities Market
• Mutual Funds.
• Fixed Deposits, Savings Deposits, Post Office savings.
• Insurance.
The secondary market has further two components. First, the spot market where
securities are traded for immediate delivery and payment. The other is forward
market where the securities are traded for future delivery and payment. This
forward market is further divided into Futures and Options Market
(Derivatives Markets). In futures Market the securities are traded for
conditional future delivery whereas in option market, two types of options are
traded. A put option gives right but not an obligation to the owner to sell a
security to the writer of the option at a predetermined price before a certain
date, while a call option gives right but not an obligation to the buyer to purchase
a security from the writer of the option at a particular price before a certain date.
Stock broke
under write
Commercial banks,
3. Participants mutual fund
NBFS, chit funds etc.
individual i
financial in
The stock market deals in long-term securities both private and government. It
is the most important component of the capital market. The latter deals in long-
term funds of all kinds, whether raised through open-market securities or
through negotiated loans not resulting in market paper.
Open-market securities are securities (or market paper) that are bought and
sold openly in the market (like marketable goods) and can change hand any
number of times. The negotiated loans have to be negotiated directly (or
through a broker) between the borrower and the lender. They appear only in the
account books of the lenders and the borrowers’ promissory notes which are not
salable in the market. The scope and structure of the stock or securities market
are shown in Figure 3.2.
The stock market comprises several distinct markets in securities. The most
important distinction is that between the market for corporate securities and
the market for government securities.Corporate securities are instruments for
raising long- term corporate capital from the public.
The stock market organization provides separate arrangements for the new
issues of securities and for buying and selling of old securities. The former
market is known as the ‘new issues market’ and the latter market as the
‘secondary market’. Both kinds of markets are essential for servicing corporate
borrowers and investors.
The essential function of the new issues market is to arrange for the raising of
new capital by corporate enterprises, whether new or old. This involves
attracting new investible resources into the corporate sector and their allocation
among alternative uses and users. Both ways the role is very important.
How fast the corporate industrial sector grows depends very much on the inflow
of resources into it, apart from its own internal savings. Equally important is the
movement of sufficient venture capital into new fields of manufacturing crucial
to the balanced growth of industries in the economy and in new regions for
promoting balanced regional development.
The new issues may take the form of equity shares, preference shares or
debentures. The firms raising funds may be new companies or existing
companies planning expansion. The new companies need not always be entirely
new enterprises. They may be private firms already in business, but ‘going
public’ to expand their capital bases. ‘Going public’ means becoming public
limited companies to be entitled to raise funds from the general public in the
open market.
For inducing the public to invest their savings in new issues, the services of a
network of specialised institutions (underwriters and stockbrokers) is required.
The more highly developed and efficient this network, the greater will be the
inflow of savings into organized industry. Till the establishment of the Industrial
Credit and Investment Corporation of India (ICICI) in 1955, this kind of
underwriting was sorely lacking in India. Instead, a special institutional
arrangement, known as the managing agency system had grown. Now it has
become a thing of the past.
The new institutional arrangements for new corporate issues in place of the
discredited managing agency system started, taking shape with the setting up
of the ICICI in 1955. Soon after (1956) the LIC joined hands. The new system has
already attained adulthood under the leadership of the Industrial Development
Bank of India (IDBI).
Apart from the ICICI and the other important participants in the new issues
market is the major term- lending institutions such as the UTI, the IFCI,
commercial banks. General Insurance Corporation (GIC) and its subsidiaries,
stock brokers, and investment trust. Foreign institutional funds from the World
Bank and its affiliates, International Development Association (IDA) and
International Finance Corporation, are also channeled through the all-India
term-lending institutions (IDBI, ICICI, and IFCI).
(i) Origination,
All this requires well-trained and competent staff. A careful scrutiny and
approval of a new issue proposal by well-established financial institutions
known for their competence and integrity improves substantially its
acceptability by the investing public and other financial institutions. This is
especially true of issues of totally new enterprises.
The company bringing out the new issue agrees to bear this extra cost of raising
funds, because thereby it is assured of funds and the task of sale of stock to the
public or others is passed on entirely to underwriters. Mostly, underwriting is
done by a group of underwriters, one or more of whom may act as group leaders.
The group (or consortium) underwriting distributes risks of underwriting among
several underwriters and enhances substantially the capacity of the system to
underwrite big issues.
It is the placing of the issues of small companies that continues to be the Achilles’
heels of the new issues market. For loosening the grip of monopoly houses on the
industrial economy of the country, it is necessary that new entrepreneurs are
encouraged. For this, special efforts need be stepped up further for promoting
small issues.
Broadly speaking, there are three main ways of floating new issues:
What we have described above is the first method. The issue of a public
prospectus giving details about the company, issue, and the underwriters is the
last act in the drama and is an open invitation to the public to subscribe to the
issue. Private placement means that the issue is not offered to the general public
for subscription but is placed privately with a few big financiers.
This saves the company the expenses of public placement. It is also faster. Rights
issue means issue of rights (invitations) to the existing shareholders of an old
corporation to subscribe to a part or whole of the new issue in a fixed proportion
to their shareholding. Such an issue is always offered at a certain discount from
the going market price of the already-trading shares of the company.
This market deals in existing securities. Its main function is to provide liquidity
to such securities. Liquidity of an asset means its easy convertibility into cash at
short notice and with minimal loss of capital value. This liquidity is provided by
providing a continuous market for securities, that is, a market where a security
cart be bought or sold at any time during business hours at small transaction cost
and at comparatively small variations from the last quoted price.
This, of course, is true of only ‘active’ securities for which there are always buyers
and sellers in the market. ‘Activeness’ is a property of individual securities, not of
the market. The function of providing liquidity to old stocks is important both for
attracting new finance and in other ways. It encourages prospective investors to
invest in securities, old or new, because they know that any time they want to get
out of them into cash, they can go to the market and sell them off.
In the absence of any organized securities market, this will not be easily feasible.
So, the investing public will keep away from securities. Then, the secondary
market provides an opportunity to all concerned to invest in securities and when
they like. This opens a way for continuous inflow of funds into the market.
This is especially important for such investors who do not want to risk their funds
by investing in new ventures, but are perfectly willing to invest in the securities
of on-going concerns. On the other end, there are venturesome investors who
invest in new issues in the hope of making capital gains later when the new
concerns have established themselves well.
In a sense, they season new issues and sell them off when the market
acceptability of these issues has improved. With their funds released from sale
of their old holdings, they can move into other new issues coming into the
market. Thus, investment into new issues is facilitated greatly by the operations
of the secondary market.
The new investment is influenced in another way too by what is happening in the
secondary market. The latter acts as an important indicator of the investment
climate in the economy. When stock prices of existing securities are rising and
the volume of trading activity in the secondary market goes up, new issues also
tend to increase as the new issues market (underwriters, stockbrokers, and
investors) is (are) better prepared and more willing to accept new issues. This is
also a good time for companies to come forward with new issues.
When the secondary market is in doldrums, the new issues market also
languishes. The underwriters are reluctant to underwrite and stockbrokers
reluctant to assume the responsibility of selling new issues to the public. Then,
firms are also advised to postpone their new issues for better times.
The latter deals in such securities as are not ‘listed’ on an organized stock
exchange. These are securities of small companies and have only a limited
market. Their prices are determined through direct negotiation between stock
brokers and not through open bidding as is the case with ‘listed’ securities on a
stock exchange. The main action of the stock market is concentrated on these
exchanges. We explain briefly their organization and functioning.
Every major change in country and economy is reflected in the prices of shares.
The rise or fall in the share prices indicates the boom or recession cycle of the
economy. Stock exchange is also known as a pulse of economy or economic
mirror which reflects the economic conditions of a country.
2. Pricing of Securities:
The stock market helps to value the securities on the basis of demand and supply
factors. The securities of profitable and growth oriented companies are valued
higher as there is more demand for such securities. The valuation of securities is
useful for investors, government and creditors. The investors can know the value
of their investment, the creditors can value the creditworthiness and
government can impose taxes on value of securities.
3. Safety of Transactions:
In stock market only the listed securities are traded and stock exchange
authorities include the companies names in the trade list only after verifying the
soundness of company. The companies which are listed they also have to operate
within the strict rules and regulations. This ensures safety of dealing through
stock exchange.
In stock exchange securities of various companies are bought and sold. This
process of disinvestment and reinvestment helps to invest in most productive
investment proposal and this leads to capital formation and economic growth.
The main function of stock market is to provide ready market for sale and
purchase of securities. The presence of stock exchange market gives assurance
to investors that their investment can be converted into cash whenever they
want. The investors can invest in long term investment projects without any
hesitation, as because of stock exchange they can convert long term investment
into short term and medium term.
The shares of profit making companies are quoted at higher prices and are
actively traded so such companies can easily raise fresh capital from stock
market. The general public hesitates to invest in securities of loss making
companies. So stock exchange facilitates allocation of investor’s fund to
profitable channels.
Limitations
Preference Capital
The Preference Capital is that portion of capital which is raised through the issue
of the preference shares. This is the hybrid form of financing that has certain
characteristics of equity and certain attributes of debentures.
The preference capital is similar to the equity in the sense: the preference
dividend is paid out of the distributable profits, it is not obligatory on the part of
the firm to pay the preference dividend, these dividends are not tax-deductible.
The portion of the preference capital resembles the debentures: the rate of
dividend is fixed, preference shareholders are given priority over the equity
shareholders in case of dividend payment and at the time of winding up of the
firm, the preference shareholders do not have the right to vote and the
preference capital is repayable.
Equity Capital
Invested money that, in contrast to debt capital, is not repaid to the investors in
the normal course of business. It represents the risk capital staked by the owners
through purchase of a company’s common stock (ordinary shares).
The value of equity capital is computed by estimating the current market value
of everything owned by the company from which the total of all liabilities is
subtracted. On the balance sheet of the company, equity capital is listed as
stockholders’ equity or owners’ equity. Also called equity financing or share
capital.
Equity investors are focused on future earnings and increasing the value of a
business rather than the immediate return on their investment in the form of
interest payments or dividends. As a result, businesses can rely on equity capital
to finance projects for which the earnings or returns may not occur for some
time, if at all.
A lender is concerned with the repayment of debt. The lender wants to ensure
that loan proceeds increase company assets, which generate cash to repay loans.
Therefore, lenders establish financial covenants that restrict how loan proceeds
are used. Equity investors establish no such covenants; they rely on governance
rights to protect their interests.
Disadvantage of Equity Capital
Neither profits nor business growth nor dividends are guaranteed for equity
investors. The returns to equity investors are more uncertain than returns
earned by debt holders. As a result, equity investors anticipate a higher return on
their investment than that received by lenders.
Legal restrictions govern the use of equity financing and the structure of the
financing transactions. In fact, equity investors have financial rights, including a
claim to distributed dividends and proceeds from the sale of the company in
which they invest. The equity investors also have governance rights pertaining
to the board of directors election and approval of major business decisions.
These rights dilute the ownership and control of a company and increase the
oversight of management decisions.
Each investor in a company has a right to the cash flow generated by the business
after all other claims are paid. If the business is sold, the owners share cash equal
to the net proceeds of the business if a gain occurs on the sale. The investors’ net
return is equal to the net proceeds of the sale less the cash they invested in the
business. The legal restrictions that govern the use of equity financing
determine the return received by an individual.
Trading is usually done through an organized stock exchange, which acts as the
intermediary between a buyer and seller, though it is also possible to directly
engage in purchase and sale transactions with counterparties.
Trading securities are recorded in the balance sheet of the investor at their fair
value as of the balance sheet date. This type of marketable security is always
positioned in the balance sheet as a current asset.
If there is a change in the fair value of such an asset from period to period, this
change is recognized in the income statement as a gain or loss.
Debentures
Advantages of Debentures
Disadvantages of Debentures
Convertible debenture can be converted into equity shares after the expiry of a
specified period. On the other hand, a non-convertible debenture is those which
cannot be converted into equity shares.
A debenture which is repaid before the other debenture is known as the first
debenture. The second debenture is that which is paid after the first debenture
has been paid back.
TYPES OF ORDERS
The most common types of orders are market orders, limit orders, and stop-loss
orders.
Till last year MTF was allowed against the cash margin not against shares as
collateral. Now Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has relaxed the said
criteria vide its circular no. SCIR/MRD/DP/54/2017 dated June 13, 2017.
Investors are now allowed to create a position under MTF against shares as
collateral as well.
SEBI and Exchanges monitor tightly the securities eligible under the MTF and
margin required (through cash or shares as collateral) on such securities are
prescribed by them from time to time. Currently, the securities forming part of
Group 1 securities are included in MTF.
Features of MTF:
• Investors who wish to avail the MTF need to undertake by
signing/accepting additional Terms and Conditions. It ensures
that investors are completely aware of the risk and rewards of
trading in it.
• Allows investors to create leverage position in securities which are
not part of derivatives segment.
• The positions can be created against the margin amount which
can be in the form of cash or shares as collateral.
• Position can be carried forward up to T+N days (T = means trading
day whereas N = means a number of days the said position can be
carried forward). The definition of N varies from broker to broker.
• Securities allowed under MTF are predefined by SEBI and
Exchanges from time to time.
• Only corporate brokers are allowed to offer MTF as per SEBI
regulations.
• MTF is ideal for investors who are looking for benefit from the
price movement in short-term but not having sufficient cash
balance.
• Utilization of securities available in portfolio/demat account
(using them as shares as collateral).
• Improve the percentage return on the capital deployed.
• Enhance the buying power of the investors.
• Prudently regulated by the regulator and exchanges.
NSE Clearing carries out clearing and settlement functions as per the settlement
cycles provided in the settlement schedule.
The clearing function of the clearing corporation is designed to work out a) what
members are due to deliver and b) what members are due to receive on the
settlement date. Settlement is a two way process which involves transfer of
funds and securities on the settlement date.
NSE Clearing has two categories of clearing members: trading clearing members
and custodians. Trading members can trade on a proprietary basis or trade for
their clients. All proprietary trades become the member’s obligation for
settlement. Where trading members trade on behalf of their clients they could
trade for normal clients or for clients who would be settling through their
custodians. Trades which are for settlement by Custodians are indicated with a
Custodian Participant (CP) code and the same is subject to confirmation by the
respective Custodian. The custodian is required to confirm settlement of these
trades on T + 1 day by the cut-off time 1.00 p.m. Non-confirmation by custodian
devolves the trade obligation on the member who had input the trade for the
respective client.
For pay-in through NSDL / CDSL a facility has been provided to members wherein
delivery-out instructions will be generated automatically by the Clearing
Corporation based on the net delivery obligations of its Clearing Members. These
instructions will be released on the T+1 day to NSDL / CDSL and the securities in
the Clearing Members’ pool accounts will be marked for pay-in. Clearing
members desirous of availing this facility shall send a letter in the format
provided in the Annexure.
NSE Clearing carries out the clearing and settlement of trades executed on the
exchange except Trade for trade – physical segment of capital market. Primary
responsibility of settling these deals rests directly with the members and the
Exchange only monitors the settlement. The parties are required to report
settlement of these deals to the Exchange.
Since the reforms, all securities are now in electronic format. There are no issues
of physical shares/securities anymore. So an investor must open a
dematerialized account, i.e. a demat account to hold and trade in such electronic
securities.
So you or your broker will open a demat account with the depository participant.
Currently, in India, there are two depository participants, namely Central
Depository Services Ltd. (CDSL) and National Depository Services Ltd. (NDSL).
3) Placing Orders
And then the investor will actually place an order to buy or sell shares. The order
will be placed with his broker, or the individual can transact online if the broker
provides such services. One thing of essential importance is that the order
/instructions should be very clear. Example: Buy a 100 shares of XYZ Co. for a
price of Rs. 140/- or less.
Then the broker will act according to your transactions and place an order for the
shares at the price mentioned or an even better price if available. The broker will
issue an order confirmation slip to the investor.
Once the broker receives the order from the investor, he executes it. Within 24
hours of this, the broker must issue a Contract Note. This document contains all
the information about the transactions, like the number of shares transacted,
the price, date and time of the transaction, brokerage amount etc.
5) Settlement
Here the actual securities are transferred from the buyer to the seller. And the
funds will also be transferred. Here too the broker will deal with the transfer.
There are two types of settlements,
The Securities & Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Act, 1992 regulates the
functioning of SEBI. SEBI is the apex body governing the Indian stock exchanges.
Protective Functions
Development Functions
Regulatory Functions
The participation in the Indian Stock Market of both the domestic or foreign
financial intermediaries are governed by the regulations framed by SEBI.
Additionally, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) can participate in Indian Stock
Market after registering them with an authorized Depository Participant.
NSE is responsible for formulating and implementing the rules pertaining to:
• Registration of Members
• Listing of Securities
• Monitoring of Transactions
• Compliance
• Other additional functions related to the above functions
NSE itself is regulated by SEBI and is under regular vigilance for all regulatory
compliances.
Stock Exchange
In simple terms, a Stock Market is a platform where people buy and sell stocks,
prices of which are set according to the prevalent demand and supply situation.
It is very similar to a marketplace where traders buy and sell goods, quoting
prices on the basis of the demand for the good and the availability or supply of it.
The term trade, in the context of the bourses, means the transfer of money from
the seller to the buyer in exchange for a security/ share. The price at which the
seller sells or the buyer buys is listed on the stock exchange. You can easily trade
through a trading member registered on a Stock Exchange.
The Stock Market doesn’t differentiate between any citizen of the country.
Outside investments were only permitted in the 1990s and can take place
through either Foreign Direct Investments (FDIs) or Foreign Portfolio
Investments (FPIs). Thus, the Stock Market participants range from small
individual investors to Insurance Companies, Banks, Mutual Fund companies,
Manufacturing companies etc.
However, the rules and regulations formulated by SEBI remain the same for all
types of market participants and everybody is obligated to abide by such rules
and mandates.
Types of investors
Last updated on November 24th, 2019 at 10:29 pm
Banks
Banks are a classic source for business loans, Inc. explains. Loan-seekers will
usually be required to produce proof of collateral or a revenue stream before
their loan application is approved. Because of this, banks are often a better
option for more established businesses.
Angel investors
Angel investors are individuals with an earned income that exceeds $200,000 or
who have a net worth of more than $1 million. They are found across all
industries and are useful for entrepreneurs who are beyond the seed stages of
financing but are not yet ready to seek out venture capital.
Peer-to-peer lenders
Venture capitalists
Venture capitalists are used only after a business begins to show a significant
amount of revenue. These investors are notable, as they usually invest a
substantial amount of money (often around $10 million). They gain most of
their returns through “carried interest,” or a percentage received as
compensation from the profits of a hedge fund or private equity.
Personal investors
Business owners often rely on family, friends or close acquaintances to invest in
their companies, particularly in the beginning. However, there is a limit to how
many of these individuals can invest in startups because of legal limitations.
Capital Appreciation
Current Income
If your objective is current income, you are most likely interested in stocks that
pay a consistent and high dividend. You may also include some top-quality real
estate investment trusts (REITs) and highly-rated bonds. All of these products
produce current income on a regular basis. Many people who pursue a strategy of
current income are retired and use the income for living expenses. Other people
take advantage of a lump sum of capital to create an income stream that never
touches the principal, yet provides cash for certain current needs (college, for
example).
Capital Preservation
Capital preservation is a strategy you often associate with elderly people who
want to make sure they don’t outlive their money. Retired on nearly retired
people often use this strategy to hold on the detention has. For this investor,
safety is extremely important – even to the extent of giving up return for
security. The logic for this safety is clear. If they lose their money through foolish
investment and are retired, it is unlike they will get a chance to replace it.
Investors who use capital preservation tend to invest in bank CDs, Treasury
issues and savings accounts.
Speculation
The speculator is not a true investor, but a trader who enjoys jumping into and
out of stocks as if they were bad shoes. Speculators or traders are interested in
quick profits and used advanced trading techniques like shorting stocks, trading
on the margin, options and other special equipment. They have no love for the
companies they trade and, in fact may not know much about them at all other
than the stock is volatile and ripe for a quick profit. Speculators keep their eyes
open for a quick profit situation and hope to trade in and out without much
thought about the underlying companies. Many people try speculating in the
stock market with the misguided goal of getting rich. It doesn’t work that way. If
you want to try your hand, make sure you are using money you can afford to lose.
It’s easy to get addicted, so make sure you understand the real possibilities of
losing your investment.
Tax Minimization:
Marketability/Liquidity:
Many of the investments we have discussed are reasonably illiquid, which means
they cannot be immediately sold and easily converted into cash. Achieving a
degree ofliquidity, however, requires the sacrifice of a certain level of income or
potential for capital gains.
Common stock is often considered the most liquid of investments, since it can
usually be sold within a day or two of the decision to sell. Bonds can also be fairly
marketable, but some bonds are highly illiquid, or non-tradable, possessing a
fixed term. Similarly, money market instruments may only be redeemable at the
precise date at which the fixed term ends. If an investor seeks liquidity, money
market assets and non-tradable bonds aren’t likely to be held in his or her
portfolio.
1. Fundamental Analysis
The fundamental analysis allows for selection of securities of different sectors
of the economy that appear to offer profitable opportunities. The security
analysis will help to establish what type of investment should be undertaken
among various alternatives i.e. real estate, bonds, debentures, equity shares,
fixed deposit, gold, jewellery etc. Neither all industries grow at same rate nor do
all companies. The growth rates of a company depend basically on its ability to
satisfy human desires through production of goods or performance is important
to analyze nation economy. It is very important to predict the course of national
economy because economic activity substantially affects corporate profits,
investors’ attitudes, expectations and ultimately security price.
2. Technical Analysis
So far our analysis of risk-return was confined to single assets held in isolation.
In real world, we rarely find investors putting their entire wealth into single asset
or investment. Instead they build portfolio of investments and hence risk-
return analysis is extended in context of portfolio.
However, this was done on intuitive basis with no knowledge of the magnitude
of risk reduction gained. Since the 1950s, however, a systematic body of
knowledge has been built up which quantifies the expected return and riskiness
of the portfolio. These studies have collectively come to be known as ‘portfolio
theory’.
This is dependent upon the interplay between the returns on assets comprising
the portfolio. Another assumption of the portfolio theory is that the returns of
assets are normally distributed which means that the mean (expected value) and
variance analysis is the foundation of the portfolio.
I. Portfolio Return:
Applying formula (5.5) to possible returns for two securities with funds
equally invested in a portfolio, we can find the expected return of the
portfolio as below:
Unlike the expected return on a portfolio which is simply the weighted average
of the expected returns on the individual assets in the portfolio, the portfolio
risk, σp is not the simple, weighted average of the standard deviations of the
individual assets in the portfolios.
The formula for determining the covariance of returns of two securities is:
A’s and B’s returns could be above their average returns at the same time or they
could be below their average returns at the same time. This signifies that as the
proportion of high return and high risk assets is increased, higher returns on
portfolio come with higher risk.
Zero covariance means that the two variables do not move together either in
positive or negative direction. In other words, returns on the two securities are
not related at all. Such situation does not exist in real world. Covariance may be
non-zero due to randomness and negative and positive terms may not cancel
each other.
III. Diversification:
Diversification may take the form of unit, industry, maturity, geography, type of
security and management. Through diversification of investments, an investor
can reduce investment risks.
Fig. 5.2 portrays meaningful diversification. It may be noted from the figure that
the returns overtime for Security X are cyclical in that they move in tandem with
the economic fluctuations. In case of Security Y returns are moderately counter
cyclical. Thus, the returns for these two securities are negatively correlated.
If equal amounts are invested in both securities, the dispersion of returns, up, on
the portfolio of investments will be less because some of each individual
security’s variability is offsetting. Thus, the gains of diversification of
investment portfolio, in the form of risk minimization, can be derived if the
securities are not perfectly and positively correlated.
As the number of securities selected randomly held in the portfolio increase, the
total risk of the portfolio is reduced, though at a decreasing rate. Thus, degree of
portfolio risk can be reduced to a large extent with a relatively moderate amount
of diversification, say 15-20 randomly selected securities in equal-rupee
amounts.
Portfolio risk comprises systematic risk and unsystematic risk. Systematic risk is
also known as non- diversifiable risk which arises because of the forces that
affect the overall market, such, as changes in the nation’s economy, fiscal policy
of the Government, monetary policy of the Central bank, change in the world
energy situation etc.
Such types of risks affect securities overall and hence, cannot be diversified
away. Even if an investor holds well diversified portfolio, he is exposed to this
type of risk which is affecting the overall market. This is why, non-diversifiable
or unsystematic risk is also termed as market risk which remains after
diversification.
Figure 5.3 displays two components of portfolio risk and their relationship to
portfolio size.
Covariance
Last updated on November 24th, 2019 at 10:31 pm
When an analyst has a set of data, a pair of x and y values, covariance can be
calculated using five variables from that data. They are:
Given this information, the formula for covariance is: Cov(x,y) = SUM [(xi – xm)
* (yi – ym)] / (n – 1)
It’s important to note that while the covariance does measure the directional
relationship between two assets, it does not show the strength of the
relationship between the two assets. The coefficient of correlation is a more
appropriate indicator of this strength.
Covariance Applications
A value of exactly 1.0 means there is a perfect positive relationship between the
two variables. For a positive increase in one variable, there is also a positive
increase in the second variable. A value of -1.0 means there is a perfect negative
relationship between the two variables. This shows the variables move in
opposite directions — for a positive increase in one variable, there is a decrease
in the second variable. If the correlation is 0, there is no relationship between the
two variables.
The strength of the relationship varies in degree based on the value of the
correlation coefficient. For example, a value of 0.2 shows there is a positive
relationship between the two variables, but it is weak and likely insignificant.
Experts do not consider correlations significant until the value surpasses at least
0.8. However, a correlation coefficient with an absolute value of 0.9 or greater
would represent a very strong relationship.
Where,
r = Pearson correlation coefficient
x = Values in first set of data
y = Values in second set of data
n = Total number of values.
Systematic risk can be measured using beta. Stock Beta is the measure of the
risk of an individual stock in comparison to the market as a whole. Beta is the
sensitivity of a stock’s returns to some market index returns (e.g., S&P 500).
Basically, it measures the volatility of a stock against a broader or more general
market.
Using the correlation method, beta can be calculated from the historical data
of returns by the following formula:
Where,
rim = Correlation coefficient between the returns of stock i and the returns of the
market index
Using the regression analysis, beta can be calculated from the historical data
of returns by the following formula:
Y = α + βX
Where,
Y = Dependent variable
X = Independent variable
Ri = α +βi Rm
Where,
n = number of items
Interpretation of Beta:
1. A beta of 1 indicates that the security’s price will move with the
market.
2. A beta of less than 1 means that the security will be less volatile
than the market.
3. A beta of greater than 1 indicates that the security’s price will be
more volatile than the market.
For example, if a stock’s beta is 1.2, it’s theoretically 20% more volatile than the
market. The Beta of the general and broader market portfolio is always assumed
to be 1.
• Economic Analysis
• Industry Analysis
• Company Analysis
Economic Analysis:
Every common stock is susceptible to the market risk. This feature of almost all
types of common stock indicates their combined movement with the
fluctuations in the economic conditions towards the improvement or
deterioration.
Stock prices react favorably to the low inflation, earnings growth, a better
balance of trade, increasing gross national product and other positive
macroeconomic news. Indications that unemployment is rising, inflation is
picking up or earnings estimates are being revised downward will negatively
affect the stock prices. This relationship is reasonably reliable that the US
economy is better represented by the Standard & Poor 500 stock index, which is
famous market indicator. The stock market will forecast an economic boom or
recession properly from the signs in front of average citizen. The Federal bank of
New York has conducted a research that describes that the slope of the yield
curve is the perfect indicator of the economic growth more than three months
out. Recession is indicated by negative slope while positive slope is considered as
good one.
The implications of market risk should be clear to the investor. When there is
recession in the economy, the prices of stocks moves downward. All the
companies suffer the effects of recession despite of the fact that these are high
performing companies or low performing ones. Similarly the stock prices are
positively affected by the boom period of the economy.
Industry Analysis:
It is clear there is certain level of market risk faced by every stock and the stock
price decline during recession in the economy. Another point to be remembered
is that the defensive kind of stock is affected less by the recession as compared
to the cyclical category of stock. In the industry analysis, such industries are
highlighted that can stand well in front of adverse economic conditions.
Another aspect of the industry analysis is the bargaining power of buyers which
can greatly influence the large percentage of sales of seller. In this condition the
profit margins are lower. Concessions are necessary to be offered by the seller
because it is not affordable for him to lose customer. For example there is ship
building company and the US Navy is its main customer. Only two to three ships
are produced by the company every year and so it is very harmful for the firm to
lose the Navy contract. On the other hand in case of departmental store, there is
large number of customers and so the bargaining power of customers is low. In
this business, losing one or two customers will not much affect the sales or
profitability of the retail store.
The only capital intensive industry should not be focused. There are other
industries that are not capital intensive like consultants required in retail
computer store. There is need that is present which force the computer
technician to solve the problems of the computer systems of people. In recent
year, consumers are usually more sophisticated in area of personal computers.
So they are better guided and they try to make their own decisions in the needs
of software and hardware aspects. In fact they possess high power when they
contact the sales staff.
The bargaining power of suppliers has also substantial influence over the
profitability of the company. The supplies for manufacturing products are
required by the company and it does not have sufficient control over the costs. It
is not possible for the company to increase the price of its finished products in
order to cover the increased costs due to the presence of powerful buyer groups
in market of substitute products. So while conducing industry analysis, the
presence of powerful suppliers should be considered as negative for the
company.
Company Analysis:
In company analysis different companies are considered and evaluated from the
selected industry so that most attractive company can be identified. Company
analysis is also referred to as security analysis in which stock picking activity is
done. Different analysts have different approaches of conducting company
analysis like
During the process of constructing the optimal portfolio, several factors and
investment characteristics are considered. The most important of those factors
are risk and return of the individual assets under consideration. Correlations
among individual assets along with risk and return are important determinants
of portfolio risk. Creating a portfolio for an investor requires an understanding of
the risk profile of the investor. Although we will not discuss the process of
determining risk aversion for individuals or institutional investors, it is
necessary to obtain such information for making an informed decision. In this
reading, we will explain the broad types of investors and how their risk-return
preferences can be formalized to select the optimal portfolio from among the
infinite portfolios contained in the investment opportunity set.
All investments are risky. The higher the risk taken, the higher is the return. But
proper management of risk involves the right choice of investments whose risks
are compensating. The total risk of two companies may be different and even
lower than the risk of a group of two companies if their risks are offset by each
other. Thus, if the risk of Reliance is represented by Beta of 1.90 and of Dr.
Reddy’s at 0.70 the total of these two is 1.30, on average. But the actual beta of
the group of these two may be less than that due to the fact that co-variances of
these two may be negative or independent. It may be more than that if there is a
strong positive covariance between them.
Risk on some assets is almost zero or negligible. The examples are bank deposits,
where the maximum return is 13%. Similarly, investments in Treasury bills,
Government Securities etc., are also risk free or least risky. Their return is 13 to
14%.
All investors should therefore plan their investments first to provide for their
requirements of comfortable life with a house, real estate, physical assets
necessary for comforts and insurance for life, and accident, and make a provision
for a provident fund and pension fund etc., for a future date. They have to take
all needed precautions for a comfortable life, before they enter the stock market
as it is most risky. But rarely any such plan or design is noticed among investors
as they start investment in these markets on the advice of friends, relatives and
agents or brokers, without much of premeditation or preparation.
The following chart shows the tradeoff between risk and return. If you want
more return, you take more risk and if no risk is taken, only bank deposits are
used.
At R0 risk, the reward is only M. If we take a higher risk of R1, the reward will
increase to ON. But if reward is desirable, risk is undesirable. Hence, the investor
who wants the risk taken to be only Ro, but return to be ON he has to plan his
Investments in portfolio. This is what in essence is called portfolio management.
Decomposition of Return:
The portfolio return is related to risk. There is also a risk free return, which is
secured by any investor by keeping his funds in say bank deposits or post office
deposits or certificates. Beyond the risk free rate, the excess return depends on
many factors like the risk taken, expertise in selectivity or selection, return due
to diversification and return for expertise of portfolio manager.
Fama has presented the decomposition of actual returns into its components.
Thus, there is risk free return, excess return, risk premium for taking risk, etc.
There is also a return for selecting the proper assets and extra return for the
expertise of the portfolio manager.
Concept of Beta, Classification of Beta-Geared
and Ungeared Beta
Last updated on December 4th, 2019 at 09:58 pm
Examples of beta
High β: A company with a β that’s greater than 1 is more volatile than the market.
For example, a high-risk technology company with a β of 1.75 would have
returned 175% of what the market return in a given period (typically measured
weekly).
Low β: A company with a β that’s lower than 1 is less volatile than the whole
market. As an example, consider an electric utility company with a β of 0.45,
which would have returned only 45% of what the market returned in a given
period.
Levered beta, also known as equity beta or stock beta, is the volatility of returns
for a stock taking into account the impact of the company’s leverage from its
capital structure. It compares the volatility (risk) of a levered company to the risk
of the market.
Levered beta includes both business risk and the risk that comes from taking on
debt. It is also commonly referred to as “equity beta” because it is the volatility
of an equity based on its capital structure.
Asset beta, or unlevered beta, on the other hand, only shows the risk of an
unlevered company relative to the market. It includes business risk but does not
include leverage risk.
Markowitz model is thus a theoretical framework for analysis of risk and return
and their inter-relationships. He used the statistical analysis for measurement
of risk and mathematical programming for selection of assets in a portfolio in an
efficient manner. His framework led to the concept of efficient portfolios. An
efficient portfolio is expected to yield the highest return for a given level of risk
or lowest risk for a given level of return.
Risk and Reward are two aspects of investment considered by investors. The
expected return may vary depending on the assumptions. Risk index is measured
by the variance of the distribution around the mean, its range etc., which are in
statistical terms called variance and covariance. The qualification of risk and the
need for optimisation of return with lowest risk are the contributions of
Markowitz. This led to what is called the Modern Portfolio Theory, which
emphasizes the tradeoff between risk and return. If the investor wants a higher
return, he has to take higher risk. But he prefers a high return but a low risk and
hence the problem of a tradeoff.
Thus, the investor chooses assets with the lowest variability of returns. Taking
the return as the appreciation in the share price, if TELCO shares price varies from
Rs. 338 to Rs. 580 (with variability of 72%) and Colgate from Rs. 218 to Rs. 315
(with a variability of 44%) during 1998, the investor chooses the Colgate as a less
risky share.
As against this Traditional Theory that standard deviation measures the vari-
ability of return and risk is indicated by the variability, and that the choice
depends on the securities with lower variability, the modern Portfolio Theory
emphasizes the need for maximization of returns through a combination of
securities, whose total variability is lower.
The risk of each security is different from that of others and by a proper
combination of securities, called diversification one can arrive at a combination
wherein the risk of one is offset partly or fully by that of the other. In other words,
the variability of each security and covariance for their returns reflected through
their inter-relationships should be taken into account.
Thus, as per the Modern Portfolio Theory, expected returns, the variance of
these returns and covariance of the returns of the securities within the portfolio
are to be considered for the choice of a portfolio. A portfolio is said to be efficient,
if it is expected to yield the highest return possible for the lowest risk or a given
level of risk.
(2) Investors have free access to fair and correct information on the returns and
risk.
(3) The markets are efficient and absorb the information quickly and perfectly.
(4) Investors are risk averse and try to minimise the risk and maximise return.
(6) Investors choose higher returns to lower returns for a given level of risk.
Markowitz postulated that diversification should not only aim at reducing the
risk of a security by reducing its variability or standard deviation, but by reducing
the covariance or interactive risk of two or more securities in a portfolio. As by
combination of different securities, it is theoretically possible to have a range of
risk varying from zero to infinity.
Based on his research, Markowitz has set out guidelines for diversification on the
basis of the attitude of investors towards risk and return and on a proper
quantification of risk. The investments have different types of risk
characteristics, some called systematic and market related risks and the other
called unsystematic or company related risks. Markowitz diversification
involves a proper number of securities, not too few or not too many which have
no correlation or negative correlation. The proper choice of companies,
securities, or assets whose return are not correlated and whose risks are
mutually offsetting to reduce the overall risk.
In general the higher the expected return, the lower is the standard deviation or
variance and lower is the correlation the better will be the security for investor
choice. Whatever is the risk of the individual securities in isolation, the total risk
of the portfolio of all securities may be lower, if the covariance of their returns is
negative or negligible.
19,900 covariance estimates, adding upto a total of 20,300 estimates. For a set
of 500 securities, the estimates would be 1,25,750. Thus, the number of
estimates required becomes large because covariances between each pair of
securities have to be estimated.
ri = αi + βirm + ei
The term βirm represents the stock’s return due to the movement of the market
modified by the stock’s beta (βi), while ei represents the unsystematic risk of
the security due to firm-specific factors.
Macroeconomic events, such as interest rates or the cost of labor, causes the
systematic risk that affects the returns of all stocks, and the firm-specific
events are the unexpected microeconomics events that affect the returns of
specific firms, such as the death of key people or the lowering of the firm’s credit
rating, that would affect the firm, but would have a negligible effect on the
economy. The unsystematic risk due to firm-specific factors of a portfolio can be
reduced to zero by diversification.
Most stocks have a positive covariance because they all respond similarly to
macroeconomic factors.
However, some firms are more sensitive to these factors than others, and this
firm-specific variance is typically denoted by its beta (β), which measures its
variance compared to the market for one or more economic factors.
This last equation greatly reduces the computations, since it eliminates the need
to calculate the covariance of the securities within a portfolio using historical
returns and the covariance of each possible pair of securities in the portfolio.
With this equation, only the betas of the individual securities and the market
variance need to be estimated to calculate covariance. Hence, the index model
greatly reduces the number of calculations that would otherwise have to be
made for a large portfolio of thousands of securities.
DOW Theory
Last updated on November 24th, 2019 at 10:39 pm
Dow Theory (Dow Jones Theory) is a trading approach developed by Charles Dow.
Dow Theory is the basis of technical analysis of financial markets. The basic idea
of Dow Theory is that market price action reflects all available information and
the market price movement is comprised of three main trends.
The failure of the peak at C to overcome A, followed by the violation of the low at
B, constitutes a “sell” signal at S.
Nonfailure Swing.
Notice that C exceeds A before D falling below B. Some Dow theorists would see
a “sell” signal at S1, while others would need to see a lower high at E before
turning bearish at S2.
Dow only took in consideration closing prices. Averages had to close higher than
a previous peak or lower than a previous trough to be significant. Intraday
penetrations did not count.
Failure Swing Bottom.
The “buy” signal takes place when point B is exceeded (at Bl).
The concepts of support and resistance are undoubtedly two of the most highly
discussed attributes of technical analysis. Part of analyzing chart patterns, these
terms are used by traders to refer to price levels on charts that tend to act as
barriers, preventing the price of an asset from getting pushed in a certain
direction. At first, the explanation and idea behind identifying these levels seem
easy, but as you’ll find out, support and resistance can come in various forms, and
the concept is more difficult to master than it first appears.
Most forms of trades are based on the belief that support and resistance zones
will not be broken. Whether the price is halted by the support or resistance level,
or it breaks through, traders can “bet” on the direction and can quickly
determine if they are correct. If the price moves in the wrong direction, the
position can be closed at a small loss. If the price moves in the right direction,
however, the move may be substantial.
TAKEAWAYS
The Basics
Most experienced traders will be able to tell many stories about how certain price
levels tend to prevent traders from pushing the price of an underlying asset in a
certain direction. For example, assume that Jim was holding a position in stock
between March and November and that he was expecting the value of the shares
to increase.
Let’s imagine that Jim notices that the price fails to get above $39 several times
over several months, even though it has gotten very close to moving above that
level. In this case, traders would call the price level near $39 a level of resistance.
As you can see from the chart below, resistance levels are also regarded as a
ceiling because these price levels prevent the market from moving prices
upward.
Figure 1
On the other side of the coin, we have price levels that are known as support. This
terminology refers to prices on a chart that tend to act as a floor by preventing
the price of an asset from being pushed downward. As you can see from the chart
below, the ability to identify a level of support can also coincide with a good
buying opportunity, because this is generally the area where market participants
see good value and start to push prices higher again.
Figure 2
Trend Lines
The examples above show a constant level prevents an asset’s price from moving
higher or lower. This static barrier is one of the most popular forms of
support/resistance, but the price of financial assets generally trends upward or
downward, so it is not uncommon to see these price barriers change over time.
This is why understanding the concepts of trending and trendlines is important
when learning about support and resistance.
When the market is trending to the upside, resistance levels are formed as the
price action slows and starts to pull back toward the trendline. This occurs as a
result of profit taking or near-term uncertainty for a particular issue or sector.
The resulting price action undergoes a “plateau” effect, or a slight drop-off in
stock price, creating a short-term top.
Many traders will pay close attention to the price of a security as it falls toward
the broader support of the trendline because historically this has been an area
that has prevented the price of the asset from moving substantially lower. For
example, as you can see from the Newmont Mining Corp (NEM) chart below, a
trendline can provide support for an asset for several years. In this case, notice
how the trendline propped up the price of Newmont’s shares for an extended
period of time.
Figure 3
On the other hand, when the market is trending to the downside, traders will
watch for a series of declining peaks and will attempt to connect these peaks
together with a trendline. When the price approaches the trendline, most traders
will watch for the asset to encounter selling pressure and may consider entering
a short position because this is an area that has pushed the price downward in the
past.
Unlike the rational economic actors portrayed by financial models, real human
traders and investors are emotional, make cognitive errors, and fall back on
heuristics or shortcuts. If people were rational, support and resistance levels
wouldn’t work in practice!
Round Numbers
Moving Averages
Traders can use moving averages in a variety of ways, such as to anticipate moves
to the upside, when price lines cross above a key moving average, or to exit
trades, when the price drops below a moving average. Regardless of how the
moving average is used, it often creates “automatic” support and resistance
levels. Most traders will experiment with different time periods in their moving
averages so that they can find the one that works best for this specific task.
Other Indicators
For example, the Fibonacci retracement tool is a favorite among many short-
term traders because it clearly identifies levels of potential support/resistance.
The reasoning behind how this indicator calculates the various levels of support
and resistance is beyond the scope of this article, but notice in Figure 5 how the
identified levels (dotted lines) are barriers to the short-term direction of the
price.
Figure 5
Remember how we used the terms “floor” for support and “ceiling” for
resistance? Continuing the house analogy, the security is how a rubber ball that
bounces in a room will hit the floor (support) and then rebound off the ceiling
(resistance). A ball that continues to bounce between the floor and the ceiling is
similar to a trading instrument that is experiencing price consolidation between
support and resistance zones. Now imagine that the ball, in mid-flight, changes
to a bowling ball. This extra force, if applied on the way up, will push the ball
through the resistance level; on the way down, it will push the ball through the
support level. Either way, extra force, or enthusiasm from either the bulls or
bears, is needed to break through the support or resistance.
Often, a support level will eventually become a resistance level when the price
attempts to move back up, and conversely, a resistance level will become a
support level as the price temporarily falls back. Price charts allow traders and
investors to visually identify areas of support and resistance, and they give clues
regarding the significance of these price levels. More specifically, they look at:
Number of Touches. The more times the price tests a support or resistance area,
the more significant the level becomes. When prices keep bouncing off a support
or resistance level, more buyers and sellers notice and will base trading decisions
on these levels.
Preceding Price Move. Support and resistance zones are likely to be more
significant when they are preceded by steep advances or declines. For example,
a fast, steep advance or uptrend will be met with more competition and
enthusiasm and may be halted by a more significant resistance level than a slow,
steady advance. A slow advance may not attract as much attention. This is a good
example of how market psychology drives technical indicators.
Volume at Certain Price Levels. The more buying and selling that has occurred
at a particular price level, the stronger the support or resistance level is likely to
be. This is because traders and investors remember these price levels and are apt
to use them again. When strong activity occurs under high volume and the price
drops, a lot of selling will likely occur when price returns to that level, since
people are far more comfortable closing out a trade at the breakeven
point rather than at a loss.
Time. Support and resistance zones become more significant if the levels have
been tested regularly over an extended period of time.
Support and resistance levels are one of the key concepts used by technical
analysts and form the basis of a wide variety of technical analysis tools. The
basics of support and resistance consist of a support level, which can be thought
of as the floor under trading prices, and a resistance level, which can be thought
of as the ceiling. Prices fall and test the support level, which will either “hold,”
and the price will bounce back up, or the support level will be violated, and the
price will drop through the support and likely continue lower to the next support
level.
Trend Line
Last updated on November 24th, 2019 at 10:41 pm
In finance, a trend line is a bounding line for the price movement of a security. It
is formed when a diagonal line can be drawn between a minimum of three or
more price pivot points. A line can be drawn between any two points, but it does
not qualify as a trend line until tested. Hence the need for the third point, the
test. Trend lines are commonly used to decide entry and exit timing when
trading securities. They can also be referred to as a Dutch line, as the concept
was first used in Holland.
A support trend line is formed when a securities price decreases and then
rebounds at a pivot point that aligns with at least two previous support pivot
points. Similarly a resistance trend line is formed when a securities price
increases and then rebounds at a pivot point that aligns with at least two
previous resistance pivot points. Stock often begin or end trending because of
a stock catalyst such as a product launch or change in management.
Trend lines are a simple and widely used technical analysis approach to judging
entry and exit investment timing. To establish a trend line historical data,
typically presented in the format of a chart such as the above price chart, is
required. Historically, trend lines have been drawn by hand on paper charts, but
it is now more common to use charting software that enables trend lines to be
drawn on computer based charts. There are some charting software that will
automatically generate trend lines, however most traders prefer to draw their
own trend lines.
However, time periods can also be viewed in terms of years. For example, below
is a chart of the S&P 500 since the earliest data point until April 2008. While the
Oracle example above uses a linear scale of price changes, long term data is more
often viewed as logarithmic: e.g. the changes are really an attempt to
approximate percentage changes than pure numerical value.
Trend lines are typically used with price charts, however they can also be used
with a range of technical analysis charts such as MACD and RSI. Trend lines can
be used to identify positive and negative trending charts, whereby a positive
trending chart forms an upsloping line when the support and the resistance
pivots points are aligned, and a negative trending chart forms a downsloping line
when the support and resistance pivot points are aligned.
Trend lines are used in many ways by traders. If a stock price is moving between
support and resistance trend lines, then a basic investment strategy commonly
used by traders, is to buy a stock at support and sell at resistance, then short at
resistance and cover the short at support. The logic behind this, is that when the
price returns to an existing principal trend line it may be an opportunity to open
new positions in the direction of the trend, in the belief that the trend line will
hold and the trend will continue further. A second way is that when price action
breaks through the principal trend line of an existing trend, it is evidence that the
trend may be going to fail, and a trader may consider trading in the opposite
direction to the existing trend, or exiting positions in the direction of the trend.
• Breakaway gaps occur at the end of a price pattern and signal the
beginning of a new trend.
• Exhaustion gaps occur near the end of a price pattern and signal a
final attempt to hit new highs or lows.
• Common gaps cannot be placed in a price pattern – they simply
represent an area where the price has gapped.
• Continuation gaps, also known as runaway gaps, occur in the
middle of a price pattern and signal a rush of buyers or sellers who
share a common belief in the underlying stock’s future direction.
When someone says a gap has been filled, that means the price has moved back
to the original pre-gap level. These fills are quite common and occur because of
the following:
When gaps are filled within the same trading day on which they occur, this is
referred to as fading. For example, let’s say a company announces great earnings
per share for this quarter and it gaps up at the open (meaning it opened
significantly higher than its previous close). Now let’s say, as the day progresses,
people realize that the cash flow statement shows some weaknesses, so they
start selling. Eventually, the price hits yesterday’s close, and the gap is filled.
Many day traders use this strategy during earnings season or at other times
when irrational exuberance is at a high.
Some traders will fade gaps in the opposite direction once a high or low point has
been determined (often through other forms of technical analysis). For example,
if a stock gaps up on some speculative report, experienced traders may fade the
gap by shorting the stock. Lastly, traders might buy when the price level reaches
the prior support after the gap has been filled. An example of this strategy is
outlined below.
Here are the key things you will want to remember when trading gaps:
• Once a stock has started to fill the gap, it will rarely stop, because
there is often no immediate support or resistance.
• Exhaustion gaps and continuation gaps predict the price moving
in two different directions – be sure you correctly classify the gap
you are going to play.
• Retail investors are the ones who usually exhibit irrational
exuberance; however, institutional investors may play along to
help their portfolios, so be careful when using this
indicator and wait for the price to start to break before taking a
position.
• Be sure to watch the volume. High volume should be present in
breakaway gaps, while low volume should occur in exhaustion
gaps.
TAKEAWAYS
• Gaps are spaces on a chart that emerge when the price of the
financial instrument significantly changes with little or no trading
in-between.
• Gaps occur unexpectedly as the perceived value of the investment
changes, due to underlying fundamental or technical factors.
• Gaps are classified as breakaway, exhaustion, common, or
continuation, based on when they occur in a price pattern and
what they signal.
Relative strength analysis
Last updated on November 24th, 2019 at 10:44 pm
For example, if the price of Ford shares is $7 and the price of GM shares is $25,
the relative strength of Ford to GM is 0.28 ($7/25). This number is given context
when it is compared to the previous levels of relative strength. If, for example,
the relative strength of Ford to GM ranges between 0.5 and 1 historically, the
current level of 0.28 suggests that Ford is undervalued or GM is overvalued, or a
mix of both. The reason we know this is because the only way for this ratio to
increase back to its normal historical range is for the numerator (number on the
top of the ratio, in this case the price of Ford) to increase, or the denominator
(number on the bottom of the ratio, in our case the price of GM) to decrease. It
should also be noted that the ratio can also increase by combining an upward
price move of Ford with a downward price move of GM. For example, if Ford
shares rose to $14 and GM shares fell to $20, the relative strength would be 0.7,
which is near the middle of the historic trading range.
Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
Technical analysis differs from fundamental analysis in that the stock’s price
and volume are the only inputs. The core assumption is that all known
fundamentals are factored into price, thus there is no need to pay close attention
to them. Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a security’s intrinsic
value, but, instead, use stock charts to identify patterns and trends that suggest
what a stock will do in the future.
The most popular forms of technical analysis are simple moving averages,
support and resistance, trend lines, and momentum-based indicators.
Fundamental analysis and technical analysis are the major schools of thought
when it comes to approaching the markets.
Simple moving averages are indicators that help assess the stock’s trend by
averaging the daily price over a fixed period. Buy and sell signals are generated
when a shorter duration moving average crosses a longer duration one.
Support and resistance utilize price history. Support is defined as areas where
buyers have stepped in before, while resistance consists of the areas where
sellers have impeded price advance. Practitioners look to buy at support and sell
at resistance.
Trend lines are similar to support and resistance, as they give defined entry and
exit points. However, they differ in that they are projections based on how the
stock has traded in the past. They are often utilized for stocks moving to new
highs or new lows where there is no price history.
The term “stock market” refers to any institution that supports the purchase
and sale of stocks via a stock exchange. There are more than a dozen public stock
markets in the U.S., with the two most well-known being Nasdaq and the New
York Stock Exchange. Despite the differences in these markets, there are a group
of core characteristics they have in common.
Tip
The stock market is an organized body where brokers trade the stock of public
companies, who introduce their stock through initial public offerings. Stock
prices on the market reflect demand and supply, and traders try to predict stock
behavior.
An Organized Body
Public companies are a key component of stock markets. Public companies are
those that have stock that is bought and sold on a public stock exchange. Before
a stock can be sold, it must first be listed on the exchange. To protect its
investors, a public company is required to disclose financial and business
information that could affect stock value.
Trading on a stock exchange is restricted to stock brokers and traders who are
members of the exchange. Individual investors must have a brokerage account
in order to participate in trading. For many people, brokerage services are
provided as part of an employer-sponsored retirement investment fund. For
individuals who want to trade independently, an individual account is required.
Initial public offerings (IPOs) are the mechanism used to introduce a company’s
stock for public sale on a stock exchange. An IPO is said to take place in the
primary market, with follow-on trading between investors occurring in the
secondary market. An IPO allows a company to raise capital for future growth by
selling shares to the public.
The price of a company’s stock reflects supply and demand for the stock itself
and is often independent of the company’s success. A company’s stock may be
considered desirable for a variety of reasons, from the strength of an industry
sector to the popularity of a brand.
In order to make a profit, stock market traders must predict whether a stock’s
value will rise. Share prices often reflect the overall economy and can be volatile
as investors react to financial news and current events, but traders who are
successful predictors can realize significant gains.
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Stock picking takes, in the best of cases, a lot of work to be just feebly fruitful, so
there are probably better things to do with our resources
Put in other words, the hypothesis is saying that no stock trades too cheaply or
too expensively; hence, it would be useless to select which ones to buy or sell.
According to the EMH, the reason for this perfect pricing is that, if one stock
happens to be trading even just a bit too cheaply (or too costly), then its demand
increases (or decreases), rapidly moving the price to its most reasonable value.
This sounds against ordinary wisdom, as we have all heard stories of successful
stock picking by keen traders. Sometimes, these traders justify their
accomplishments, explaining how they anticipated certain news that produced
a change of price, which was unseen for most of the other stock traders.
Nevertheless, these cases don’t necessarily contradict the EMH. When some
news triggers a change of value, the previous price may have reflected the
amount of probability of the news really happening and the price shift it would
produce. There was a probability of the news not happening, and if that had been
the case, the price would have shifted in opposite direction. If the EMH happens
to be right, those who were lucky to select the right outcome this time, may be
unlucky the next.
If we are hiring professionals to do stock picking for us, their fees shouldn’t be
too high, because the potential benefits aren’t
To decide if investors can beat the market or not, what we need to know is if their
predictions are more often right than wrong (actually, that “more often” should
be a weighted average that considers the amount of possible profits and losses).
On the one hand, people tend to remember and communicate their success
stories more than their failures, especially if they are trying to sell a service.
Moreover, among the veteran traders in the markets, there are more who won in
the past, because those who lost money were more inclined to finding
something else to do with their time and remaining assets. So you will hear a lot
of success stories about traders supposedly using their knowledge to beat the
market, but that doesn’t necessarily prove the EMH to be wrong.
The weak version of EMH says that this information is past prices and trading
volumes. This type has the strongest support but it is the least significant, as
everyone has access to more information than past trading data. For example,
company earnings, indebtment, product profile, among other facts (that are
called fundamentals). Therefore not much is said about the possibility of
investors beating the market or not. Nevertheless, it has an interesting
consequence: it would be of no use to perform technical analysis (which is stock
price prediction based exclusively on past trading data, in contrast
to fundamental analysis, which studies the financial performance of the
corporation).
Implications
The EMH version that most interests us (semi-strong) has strong factual
support, although it is arguable to say that it is conclusive. Personally I take it to
be not totally true but to a high degree, and that level of acceptance is enough for
inferring some important practical conclusions:
The most talked about model in Capital Market Theory is the Capital Asset
Pricing Model.
In studying the capital market theory we deal with issues like the role of
the capital markets, the major capital markets in the US, the initial public
offerings and the role of the venture capital in capital markets, financial
innovation and markets in derivative instruments, the role of securities and
the exchange commission, the role of the federal reserve system, role of
the US Treasury and the regulatory requirements on the capital market.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a model that describes the
relationship between expected return and risk of investing in a security. It shows
that the expected return on a security is equal to the risk-free return plus a risk
premium, which is based on the beta of that security. Below is an illustration of
the CAPM concept.
Where:
The CAPM formula is used to calculate the expected return on investable asset.
It is based on the premise that investors have assumptions of systematic risk
(also known as market risk or non-diversifiable risk) and need to be
compensated for it in the form of a risk premium – an amount of market return
greater than the risk-free rate. By investing in a security, investors want a higher
return for taking on additional risk.
Expected Return
The “Ra” notation above represents the expected return of a capital asset over
time, given all of the other variables in the equation. The expected return is a
long-term assumption about how an investment will play out over its entire life.
Risk-Free Rate
The “Rrf” notation is for the risk-free rate, which is typically equal to the yield
on a 10-year US government bond. The risk-free rate should correspond to the
country where the investment is being made, and the maturity of the bond
should match the time horizon of the investment. Professional convention,
however, is to typically use the 10-year rate no matter what, because it’s the
most heavily quoted and most liquid bond.
The beta (denoted as “Ba” in the CAPM formula) is a measure of a stock’s risk
(volatility of returns) reflected by measuring the fluctuation of its price changes
relative to the overall market. In other words, it is the stock’s sensitivity to
market risk. For instance, if a company’s beta is equal to 1.5 the security has 150%
of the volatility of returns of the market average. However, if the beta is equal to
1, the expected return on a security is equal to the average market return. A beta
of -1 means security has a perfect negative correlation with the market.
Market Risk Premium
From the above components of CAPM we can simplify the formula to reduce
“expected return of the market minus the risk-free rate” to be simply the
“market risk premium”. The market risk premium represents the additional
return over and above the risk-free rate, which is required to
compensate investors for investing in a riskier asset class. Put another way, the
more volatile a market or an asset class is, the higher the market risk premium
will be.
The CAPM formula is widely used in the finance industry by various professions
such as investment bankers, financial analysts, and accountants. It is an integral
part of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) as CAPM calculates the cost
of equity.
WACC is used extensively in financial modeling. It can be used to find the net
present value (NPV) of the future cash flows of an investment and to further
calculate its enterprise value and finally its equity value.
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a theory of asset pricing that holds that
an asset’s returns can be forecast using the linear relationship between the
asset’s expected return and a number of macroeconomic factors that affect the
asset’s risk. This theory was created in 1976 by the economist, Stephen Ross.
Arbitrage pricing theory offers analysts and investors a multi-factor pricing
model for securities based on the relationship between a financial asset’s
expected return and its risks.
The theory aims to pinpoint the fair market price of a security that may be
temporarily mispriced. The theory assumes that market action is less than
always perfectly efficient, and therefore occasionally results in assets being
mispriced – either overvalued or undervalued – for a brief period of time.
However, market action should eventually correct the situation, moving price
back to its fair market value. To an arbitrageur, temporarily mispriced securities
represent a short-term opportunity to profit virtually risk-free.
The APT is a more flexible and complex alternative to the Capital Asset Pricing
Model (CAPM). The theory provides investors and analysts with the opportunity
to customize their research. However, it is more difficult to apply, as it takes a
considerable amount of time to determine all the various risk factors that may
influence the price of an asset.
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory operates with a pricing model that factors in many
sources of risk and uncertainty. Unlike the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
which only takes into account the single factor of the risk level of the overall
market, the APT model looks at several macroeconomic factors that, according
to the theory, determine the risk and return of the specific asset.
These factors provide risk premiums for investors to consider because the
factors carry the systematic risk that cannot be eliminated by diversification of
an investment portfolio.
The APT suggests that investors will diversify their portfolios, but that they will
also choose their own individual profile of risk and returns based on the
premiums and sensitivity of the macroeconomic risk factors. Risk-taking
investors will exploit the differences in expected and real return on the asset by
using arbitrage.
The APT suggests that the returns on assets follow a linear pattern. An investor
can leverage deviations in returns from the linear pattern using the arbitrage
strategy. Arbitrage is a practice of the simultaneous purchase and sale of an
asset, taking advantage of slight pricing discrepancies to lock in a risk-free profit
for the trade.
However, the APT’s concept of arbitrage is different from the classic meaning of
the term. In the APT, arbitrage is not a risk-free operation – but it does offer a
high probability of success. What the arbitrage pricing theory offers traders is a
model for determining the theoretical fair market value of an asset. Having
determined that value, traders then look for slight deviations from the fair
market price, and trade accordingly. For example, if the fair market value of stock
A is determined, using the APT pricing model, to be $13, but the market price
briefly drops to $11, then a trader would buy the stock, based on the belief that
further market price action will quickly “correct” the market price back to the
$13 a share level.
rf – Risk-free rate
The beta coefficients in the APT are estimated by using linear regression. In
general, historical securities returns are regressed on the factor to estimate its
beta.
The APT provides analysts and investors with a high degree of flexibility
regarding the factors that can be applied to the model. The factors, and how
many of them are used to analyze a given security, are subjective choices made
by the individual market analyst or investor. Therefore, two different investors
using the APT to analyze the same security may have widely varying results when
it comes to their actual trading. Even among the most devoted advocates of the
theory, there is no consensus agreement of finance professionals and academics
on which factors are best for predicting returns on securities.
However, Ross suggests that there are some specific macroeconomic factors
that have proven most reliable as price predictors. These include sudden changes
in inflation and GNP, corporate bond premiums, and shifts in the yield curve.
Some other commonly used factors in the APT are GDP, commodities prices,
market indices levels, and currency exchange rates.
Although a bit complex to work with, and something that requires time and
practice to become adept at using, the Arbitrage Pricing Theory is an analytical
tool that investors can use to evaluate their portfolio holdings from a basic value
investing perspective, looking to identify securities that may be temporarily
mispriced, well below or above their fair market value.
Valuation of Equity
Last updated on November 24th, 2019 at 10:52 pm
Equity valuation is a blanket term and is used to refer to all tools and techniques
used by investors to find out the true value of a company’s equity. It is often seen
as the most crucial element of a successful investment decision. Investment
Banks typically have a equity research department, where research
analysts produce equity research reports of select securities in various
industries.
Every participant in the stock market either implicitly or explicitly makes use of
equity valuation while making investment decisions. Everyone from small
individual investors to large institutional investors use equity valuations to
make investment decisions in equity markets. The total size of the global equity
market is estimated to be around $70 trillion and every participant in the stock
market, from professional fund managers to academic researchers, is trying to
find mispriced stocks.
The true value of any financial asset is thought to be a good indicator of how that
asset will do in the long run. In equity markets, a financial asset with a relatively
high intrinsic value is expected to command a high price, and a financial asset
with a relatively low intrinsic value is expected to command a low price.
Distortions can take place in the short run, i.e., financial assets with relatively
low intrinsic value might command a high price and vice-a-versa, but such
distortions are expected to disappear over time. In the long run, the true value of
a stock (and thereby the market price of that stock) depends only on the
fundamental factors affecting the stock. The factors can be broadly classified
into four categories.
1. Macroeconomic variables
2. Management of the business
3. Financial health of the business
4. Profits of the business
Individual Investors
Individual investors make up the vast majority of stock market investors, aided
by the growing wealth of households in the 20th century and a rise in the average
education level of households.
In recent times, many developed nations in the world have moved away from a
defined benefit approach to retirement funding and towards a defined
contribution approach to retirement funding. The move has further increased
the number of individual stock market investors.
Institutional Investors
Institutional investors are economic entities that aggregate capital and invest in
financial markets on behalf of a set of smaller economic entities. For
example, private pension funds aggregate capital from millions of individuals
and then invest the aggregated capital in financial markets.
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There are mainly two types of DCF techniques viz… Net Present Value [NPV] and
Internal Rate of Return [IRR].
Net Present Value may be defined as the excess of present value of project cash
inflows [stream of benefits] over that of outflows [cash outlays]. The cash flows
of a project are discounted at some desired rate of return, which is mostly
equivalent to the cost of capital.
The Internal Rate of Return may be defined as that rate of interest when used to
discount the cash flows of an investment, reduce its NPV to zero. Or it is the
Balance Sheet
Last updated on November 24th, 2019 at 10:54 pm
The balance sheet is one of the three fundamental financial statements and is
key to both financial modeling and accounting. The balance sheet displays the
company’s total assets, and how these assets are financed, through either debt
or equity. It can also sometimes be referred to as a statement of net worth, or a
statement of financial position. The balance sheet is based on the fundamental
equation:
As such, the balance sheet is divided into two sides (or sections). The left side of
the balance sheet outlines all a company’s assets. On the right side, the balance
sheet outlines the companies liabilities and shareholders’ equity. On either side,
the main line items are generally classified by liquidity. More liquid accounts like
Inventory, Cash, and Trades Payables are placed before illiquid accounts such as
Plant, Property, and Equipment (PP&E) and Long-Term Debt. The assets and
liabilities are also separated into two categories: current asset/liabilities and
non-current (long-term) assets/liabilities.
Balance sheets, like all financial statements, will have minor differences
between organizations and industries. However, there are several “buckets” and
line items that are almost always included in common balance sheets. We briefly
go through commonly found line items under Current Assets, Long-Term
Assets, Current Liabilities, Long-Term Liabilities and Equity.
1. Current Assets
The most liquid of all assets, cash, appears on the first line of the balance sheet.
Cash Equivalents are also lumped under this line item and include assets that
have short-term maturities under three months or assets that the company can
liquidate on short notice, such as marketable securities. Companies will
generally disclose what equivalents it includes in the footnotes to the balance
sheet.
Accounts Receivable
This account includes the balance of all sales revenue still on credit, net of any
allowances for doubtful accounts (which generates a bad debt expense). As
companies recover accounts receivables, this account decreases and cash
increases by the same amount.
Inventory
2. Non-Current Assets
Property, Plant and Equipment (also known as PP&E) capture the company’s
tangible fixed assets. This line item is noted net of depreciation. Some
companies will class out their PP&E by the different types of assets, such as Land,
Building, and various types of Equipment. All PP&E is depreciable except for
Land.
Intangible Assets
This line item will include all of the companies intangible fixed assets, which may
or may not be identifiable. Identifiable intangible assets include patents,
licenses, and secret formulas. Unidentifiable intangible assets include brand and
goodwill.
3. Current Liabilities
Accounts Payable
Accounts Payables, or AP, is the amount a company owes suppliers for items or
services purchased on credit. As the company pays off their AP, it decreases
along with an equal amount decrease to the cash account.
Includes non-AP obligations that are due within one year time or within one
operating cycle for the company (whichever is longest). Notes payable may also
have a long-term version, which includes notes with a maturity of more than one
year.
This account may or may not be lumped together with the above account,
Current Debt. While they may seem similar, the current portion of long-term
debt is specifically the portion due within this year of a piece of debt that has a
maturity of more than one year. For example, if a company takes on a bank loan
to be paid off in 5-years, this account will include the portion of that loan due in
the next year.
4. Non-Current Liabilities
Bonds Payable
This account includes the amortized amount of any bonds the company has
issued.
Long-Term Debt
This account includes the total amount of long-term debt (Excluding the current
portion, if that account is present under current liabilities). This account is
derived from the debt schedule, which outlines all the companies outstanding
debt, the interest expense and the principal repayment for every period.
5. Shareholders’ Equity
Share Capital
This is the value of funds that shareholders have invested in the company. When
a company is first formed, shareholders will typically put in cash. For example, an
investor starts a company and seeds it with $10M. Cash (an asset) rises by $10M,
and Share Capital (an equity account) rises by $10M, balancing out the balance
sheet.
Retained Earnings
This is the total amount of net income the company decides to keep. Every
period, a company may pay out dividends from its net income. Any amount
remaining (or exceeding) is added to (deducted from) retained earnings.
The dividend discount model was developed under the assumption that
the intrinsic value of a stock reflects the present value of all future cash flows
generated by a security. At the same time, dividends are essentially the positive
cash flows generated by a company and distributed to the shareholders.
Generally, the dividend discount model provides an easy way to calculate a fair
stock price from a mathematical perspective with minimum input variables
required. However, the model relies on several assumptions that cannot be
easily forecasted.
The dividend discount model can take several variations depending on the
stated assumptions. The variations include the following:
The Gordon Growth Model (GGM) is one of the most commonly used variations
of the dividend discount model. The model is called after American
economist Myron J. Gordon, who proposed the variation.
The GGM is based on the assumptions that the stream of future dividends will
grow at some constant rate in future for an infinite time. Mathematically, the
model is expressed in the following way:
Where:
The one-period discount dividend model is used much less frequently than the
Gordon Growth model. The former is applied when an investor wants to
determine the intrinsic price of a stock that he or she will sell in one period from
now. The one-period dividend discount model uses the following equation:
Where:
Intrinsic value
Intrinsic value is also known as the fundamental price of a share. You have
number of ways to calculate it. In general, its the amount calculated based on the
money a company is expected to earn over its lifetime. This means, it’s the
estimated true value of a company regardless of the present market price of a
stock.
Market price can be significantly higher or lower than the intrinsic value of a
stock. If it’s higher than intrinsic value, then the stock is overvalued. The
opposite is undervalued, that is when the current stock price is lower than the
estimated true value. Investors always look for undervalued companies to
invest.
But, it’s not always right to avoid a stock which has lower intrinsic value than the
current market price.
Financial tools such as P/B ratio, P/E ratio and return on equity (ROE) might help
you for taking a investment decision.
Please note, it’s difficult to determine market price and intrinsic value of a
private company as these company’s shares are not traded on the stock market.
Market Value
Market value of a stock is the amount that investors have attached to a company
at a particular point of time. In simpler terms, it’s the price you pay now to buy
stock of a publicly traded company.
When an investor sell a stock, it means there is another investor who has bought
it because to him, the selling price is attractive at that point of time.
In share market, buyers and sellers continuously pushes stock’s market prices up
and down. Price of a particular stock settle at a point where the demand equals
to the supply of a share. It measures public sentiment about the company’s
future based on number of factors. Therefore, current market price of a stock
may be significantly higher or lower than the estimated price of a stock.
The market value per share is the current trading price for one share in a
company, a relatively straightforward definition. However, earnings per share
(EPS) may not be as intuitive for most investors. The more traditional and widely
used version of the EPS calculation comes from the previous four quarters of
the price-to-earnings ratio, called a trailing earnings multiplier or trailing P/E.
Another variation of the EPS can be calculated using a forward earnings
multiplier, estimating the earnings for the upcoming four quarters. Both sides
have their advantages, with the trailing earnings multiplier approach using
actual data and the forward earnings multiplier predicting possible outcomes for
the stock. Calculated as the following:
Why it Matters:
The earnings multiplier is a powerful, but limited tool. For investors, it allows a
quick snapshot of the company’s finances without getting bogged down in the
details of an accounting report.
Let us use our previous example of XYZ, and compare it to another company,
ABC. Company XYZ has an earnings multiplier of 20, while company ABC has an
earnings multiplier of 10. Company XYZ has the highest earnings multiplier of
the two; this would lead most XYZ investors to expect higher earnings in the
future than from ABC (which possesses a lower earnings multiplier ratio).
As noted earlier, the earnings multiplier is limited. It does not paint the entire
picture for the potential investor; rather it is a complementary tool in your
financial toolbox. Be wary of forward EPS measures, (remember, EPS is an
essential aspect of calculation of the earnings multiplier) as they are matters of
prediction and are only estimates of projected earnings. Further, trailing
earnings multipliers can only tell you what happened to a company in the
previous time periods.
Earnings are important when valuing a company’s stock because investors want
to know how profitable a company is and how profitable it will be in the future.
Furthermore, if the company doesn’t grow and the current level of earnings
remains constant, the P/E can be interpreted as the number of years it will take
for the company to pay back the amount paid for each share.
Looking at the P/E of a stock tells you very little about it, if it’s not compared to
the company’s historical P/E or the competitor’s P/E from the same industry. It’s
not easy to conclude whether a stock with a P/E of 10x is a bargain, or a P/E of 50x
is expensive without performing any comparisons.
The beauty of the P/E ratio is that it standardizes stocks of different prices and
earnings levels.
The P/E is also called an earnings multiple. There are two types of P/E: trailing
and forward. The former is based on previous periods of earnings per share, while
a leading or forward P/E ratio is when EPS calculations are based on future
estimates, which predicted numbers (often provided by management or equity
research analysts).
The price to book value ratio, or PBV ratio, compares the market and book value
of the company. Imagine a company is about to be liquidated. It sells of all its
assets, and pays off all its debts. Whatever is left over is the book value of the
company. The PBV ratio is the market price per share divided by the book value
per share. For example, a stock with a PBV ratio of 2 means that we pay Rs 2 for
every Rs. 1 of book value. The higher the PBV, the more expensive the stock.
Most companies have a PBV greater than one. This means that its market value
is higher than its book value. Why is this the case? There are two reasons:
First, investors will pay a premium above the book value if the company is
expected to generate enough earnings in the future. These earnings justify a
market value above the book value.
Second, the book value of the firm may not be up to date. For example, the value
of an asset on a company’s balance sheet often reflects what the firm paid for the
asset. This is not necessarily what the asset is currently worth. The best example
of this is property, which typically increases in value over time. In this case, the
true book value is higher than what the financial statements imply.
The PBV is most relevant for firms that are close to liquidation or bankruptcy. If
a firm is liquidated, shareholders receive the book value. Once caveat here is that
the bankruptcy process is costly. There is no guarantee that shareholders receive
the entire book value for a liquidated firm.
The PBV ratio is more useful for firms that hold assets of tangible value.
Manufacturing firms are a good example. They hold property, machinery, plants,
etc. For firms with few tangible assets, the book value is less relevant. For
example, companies that consists solely of employees, computers, and office
space, don’t have a meaningful book value.
The PBV ratio is the market price per share divided by the book value per share.
The market price per share is simply the stock price. The book value per share is
a firm’s assets minus its liabilities, divided by the total number of shares.
PBV ratio = market price per share / book value per share
Price/Sales Ratio
Last updated on December 8th, 2019 at 09:58 am
Price to sales ratio compares the price of a share to the revenue per share. This
ratio is usually used for valuation of shares. It takes into account the past
performance of a company for valuation of its shares.
Price to sales ratio is calculated for the trailing twelve months, unless stated
otherwise. A lower price/sales ratio is usually considered to be a better
investment because the investors have to pay less money for each unit of sales.
Price to sales ratio can vary substantially from industry to industry or sector to
sector. Therefore, it is better to use it for comparison with the companies
operating within the same industry or sector.
Calculation
Price to sales ratio is calculated by dividing the price per share by the revenue per
share.
Price to sales ratio should be used with caution. It do not present the complete
picture because it do not take into account the expenses and liabilities of a
company. Besides, a lower price/sales ratio is not always a positive indicator
because the company might be unprofitable with a lower price/sales ratio.
This ratio is usually calculated for the loss-making companies because price
earning ratio (P/E Ratio) cannot be calculated for such companies.
EVA compares the rate of return on invested capital with the opportunity
cost of investing elsewhere. This is important for businesses to keep track
of, particularly those businesses that are capital intensive. When calculating
economic value added, a positive outcome means that the company is
creating value with its capital investments.
Components of EVA:
These three components of EVA are described below:
(i) NOPAT:
Example
Paul is the CFO of an organization in Boston. In order to assess the
organization’s value creation or destruction, Paul would like to calculate
economic value added for 2015. The organization’s NOPAT is $3,500,000,
cost of capital is 5%, and the organization employed 1,000,000 in capital
in 2015.
By plugging the values into the EVA calculation above, we can compute the
value that Paul needs:
Advantages of EVA:
(i) EVA is a tool which helps to focus managers’ attention on the impact of
their decisions in increasing shareholders’ wealth.
(ii) EVA is a good guide for investors; as on the bias of EVA, they can
decide whether a particular company is worth investing money in or not.
(iii) EVA can be used as a basis for valuation of goodwill and shares.
(iv) EVA is a good controlling device in a decentralised enterprise.
Management can apply EVA to find out EVA contribution of each
decentralised unit or segment of the company.
(v) EVA linked compensation schemes (for both operatives and managers)
can be developed towards protecting (or rather improving) shareholders’
wealth.
Bond Theorem
A bond is a debt instrument that provides a steady income stream to the investor
in the form of coupon payments. At the maturity date, the full face value of the
bond is repaid to the bondholder. The characteristics of a regular bond include:
Coupon rate: Some bonds have an interest rate, also known as the coupon rate,
which is paid to bondholders semi-annually. The coupon rate is the fixed return
that an investor earns periodically until it matures.
Maturity date: All bonds have maturity dates, some short-term, others long-
term. When the bond matures, the bond issuer repays the investor the full face
value of the bond. For corporate bonds, the face value of a bond is usually $1,000
and for government bonds, face value is $10,000. The face value is not
necessarily the invested principal or purchase price of the bond.
Current Price: Depending on the level of interest rate in the environment, the
investor may purchase a bond at par, below par, or above par. For example, if
interest rates increase, the value of a bond will decrease since the coupon rate
will be lower than the interest rate in the economy. When this occurs, the bond
will trade at a discount, that is, below par. However, the bondholder will be paid
the full face value of the bond at maturity even though he purchased it for less
than the par value.
The term structure of interest rates is the variation of the yield of bonds with
similar risk profiles with the terms of those bonds. The yield curve is the
relationship of the yield to maturity (YTM) of bonds to the time to maturity, or
more accurately, to duration, which is sometimes referred to as the effective
maturity. In most cases, bonds with longer maturities have higher yields.
However, sometimes the yield curve becomes inverted, with short-term notes
and bonds having higher yields than long-term bonds. Sometimes, the yield
curve may even be flat, where the yield is the same regardless of the maturity.
The actual shape of the yield curve depends on the supply and demand for
specific bond terms, which, in turn, depends on economic conditions, fiscal
policies, expected forward rates, inflation, foreign exchange rates, foreign
capital inflows and outflows, credit ratings of the bonds, tax policies, and the
current state of the economy. The yield curve changes because a component of
the supply and demand for short-term, medium-term, and long-term bonds
varies, to some extent, independently. For instance, when interest rates rise, the
demand for short-term bonds increases faster than the demand for long-term
bonds, which causes a flattening of the yield curve. Such was the case in 2006,
when T-bills were paying the same high rate as 30-year Treasury bonds.
Because bonds and other debt instruments have set maturities, buyers and
sellers of debt usually have preferred maturities. Bond buyers want maturities
that will coincide with their liabilities or when they want the money, while bond
issuers want maturities that will coincide with expected income
streams. Market Segmentation Theory (MST) posits that the yield curve is
determined by supply and demand for debt instruments of different maturities.
Generally, the debt market is divided into 3 major categories in regard to
maturities: short-term, intermediate-term, and long-term. The difference in
the supply and demand in each market segment causes the difference in bond
prices, and therefore, yields. There are many different factors that would cause
differences in the supply and demand for bonds of a certain maturity, but much
of that difference will depend on current interest rates and expected future
interest rates. If current interest rates are high, then future rates will be expected
to decline, thus increasing the demand for long-term bonds by investors who
want to lock in high rates while decreasing the supply, since bond issuers do not
want to be locked into high rates. Therefore, long-term interest rates will be
lower than short-term rates. On the other hand, if current interest rates are low,
then bond buyers will tend to avoid long-term bonds so that they are not locked
into low rates, especially since bond prices will decline when interest rates rise,
which will generally happen if interest rates are already low. On the other hand,
borrowers generally want to lock in low rates, so the supply for long-term bonds
will increase. Hence, a lower demand and a higher supply will cause long-term
bond prices to fall, thereby increasing their yield.
Expectations Hypothesis
Note that this relationship must hold in general, for if the sequential 1-year
bonds yielded more or less than the equivalent long-term bond, then bond
buyers would buy either one or the other, and there would be no market for the
lesser yielding alternative. For instance, suppose the 2-year bond paid only 4.5%
with the expected interest rates remaining the same. In the 1st year, the buyer of
the 2-year bond would make more money than the 1styear bond, but he would
lose more money in the 2nd year—earning only 4.5% in the 2ndyear instead of 6%
that he could have earned if he didn’t tie up his money in the 2-year bond.
Additionally, the price of the 2-year bond would decline in the secondary
market, since bond prices move opposite to interest rates, so selling the bond
before maturity would only decrease the bond’s return.
Note, however, that expected future interest rates are just that – expected.
There is no reason to believe that they will be the actual rates, especially for
extended forecasts, but, nonetheless, the expected rates still influence present
rates.
However, the expectations hypothesis does not explain why the yields on long-
term bonds are usually higher than short-term bonds. This could only be
explained by the expectations hypothesis if the future interest rate was expected
to continually rise, which isn’t plausible nor has it been observed, except in
certain brief periods.
A bond’s yield can theoretically be divided into a risk-free yield and the risk
premium. The risk-free yield is simply the yield calculated by the formula for the
expectation hypothesis. The risk premium is the liquidity premium that
increases with the term of the bond. Hence, the yield curve slopes upward, even
if future interest rates are expected to remain flat or even decline a little, and so
the liquidity premium theory of the term structure of interest rates explains
the generally upward sloping yield curve for bonds of different maturities.
1. Market Portfolio
2. Zero Investment Portfolio
The art of selecting the right investment policy for the individuals in terms of
minimum risk and maximum return is called as portfolio management.
Portfolio managers understand the client’s financial needs and suggest the best
and unique investment policy for them with minimum risks involved.
An individual who understands the client’s financial needs and designs a suitable
investment plan as per his income and risk taking abilities is called a portfolio
manager. A portfolio manager is one who invests on behalf of the client.
A portfolio manager counsels the clients and advises him the best possible
investment plan which would guarantee maximum returns to the individual.
A portfolio manager must understand the client’s financial goals and objectives
and offer a tailor made investment solution to him. No two clients can have the
same financial needs.
Benchmark Comparison
Style Comparison
The ability of the investor depends upon the absorption of latest developments
which occurred in the market. The ability of expectations if any, we must able to
cope up with the wind immediately. Investment analysts continuously monitor
and evaluate the result of the portfolio performance. The expert portfolio
constructor shall show superior performance over the market and other factors.
The performance also depends upon the timing of investments and superior
investment analysts capabilities for selection. The evolution of portfolio always
followed by revision and reconstruction. The investor will have to assess the
extent to which the objectives are achieved. For evaluation of portfolio, the
investor shall keep in mind the secured average returns, average or below
average as compared to the market situation. Selection of proper securities is the
first requirement.
1. Sharpe’s Measure
2. Treynor’s Measure
3. Jensen’s Measure
1. Sharpe’s Measure
Sharpe’s Index measure total risk by calculating standard deviation. The method
adopted by Sharpe is to rank all portfolios on the basis of evaluation measure.
Reward is in the numerator as risk premium. Total risk is in the denominator as
standard deviation of its return. We will get a measure of portfolio’s total risk and
variability of return in relation to the risk premium. The measure of a portfolio
can be done by the following formula:
SI =(Rt – Rf)/σf
Where,
• SI = Sharpe’s Index
• Rt = Average return on portfolio
• Rf = Risk free return
• σf = Standard deviation of the portfolio return.
2. Treynor’s Measure
Tn =(Rn – Rf)/βm
Where,
3. Jensen’s Measure
Rp = Rf + (RMI – Rf) x β
Where,
• Rp = Return on portfolio
• RMI= Return on market index
• Rf= Risk free rate of return
Portfolio revision involves changing the existing mix of securities. This may be
effected either by changing the securities currently included in the portfolio or
by altering the proportion of funds invested in the securities. New securities may
be added to the portfolio or some of the existing securities may be removed from
the portfolio. Portfolio revision thus leads to purchases and sales of securities.
The objective of portfolio revision is the same as the objective of portfolio
selection, i.e. maximizing the return for a given level of risk or minimizing the
risk for a given level of return. The ultimate aim of portfolio revision is
maximization of returns and minimization of risk.
Portfolio Revision Strategies
Passive Revision Strategy involves rare changes in portfolio only under certain
predetermined rules. These predefined rules are known as formula plans.
Two different strategies may be adopted for portfolio revision, namely an active
revision strategy and a passive revision strategy. The choice of the strategy
would depend on the investor‘s objectives, skill, resources and time.
In the market, the prices of securities fluctuate. Ideally, investors should buy
when prices are low and sell when prices are high. If portfolio revision is done
according to this principle, investors would be able to benefit from the price
fluctuations in the securities market. But investors are hesitant to buy when
prices are low either expecting that prices will fall further lower or fearing that
prices would not move upwards again. Similarly, when prices are high, investors
hesitate to sell because they feel that prices may rise further and they may be
able to realize larger profits.
Thus, left to themselves, investors would not be acting in the way required to
benefit from price fluctuations. Hence, certain mechanical revision techniques
or procedures have been developed to enable the investors to benefit from price
fluctuations in the market by buying stocks when prices are low and selling them
when prices are high. These techniques are referred to as formula plans.
The use of formula plans demands that the investor divide his investment funds
into two portfolios, one aggressive and the other conservative or defensive. The
aggressive portfolio usually consists of equity shares while the defensive
portfolio consists of bonds and debentures. The formula plans specify
predetermined rules for the transfer of funds from the aggressive portfolio to
the defensive portfolio and vice versa. These rules enable the investor to
automatically sell shares when their prices are rising and buy shares when their
prices are falling.
There are different formula plans for implementing passive portfolio revision;
some of them are as under:
1. Constant Rupee Value Plan:
This is one of the most popular or commonly used formula plans. In this plan, the
investor constructs two portfolios, one aggressive, consisting of equity shares
and the other, defensive, consisting of bonds and debentures. The purpose of
this plan is to keep the value of the aggressive portfolio constant, i.e. at the
original amount invested in the aggressive portfolio.
As share prices fluctuate, the value of the aggressive portfolio keeps changing.
When share prices are increasing, the total value of the aggressive portfolio
increases. The investor has to sell some of the shares from his portfolio to bring
down the total value of the aggressive portfolio to the level of his original
investment in it. The sale proceeds will be invested in the defensive portfolio by
buying bonds and debentures.
On the contrary, when share prices are falling, the total value of the aggressive
portfolio would also decline. To keep the total value of the aggressive portfolio
at its original level, the investor has to buy some shares from the market to be
included in his portfolio. For this purpose, a part of the defensive portfolio will be
liquidated to raise the money needed to buy additional shares.
Under this plan, the investor is effectively transferring funds from the
aggressive portfolio to the defensive portfolio and thereby booking profit when
share prices are increasing. Funds are transferred from the defensive portfolio to
the aggressive portfolio when share prices are low. Thus, the plan helps the
investor to buy shares when their prices are low and sell them when their prices
are high.
In order to implement this plan, the investor has to decide the action points, i.e.
when he should make the transfer of funds to keep the rupee value of the
aggressive portfolio constant. These action points, or revision points, should be
predetermined and should be chosen carefully. The revision points have a
significant effect on the returns of the investor. For instance, the revision points
may be predetermined as 10 per cent, 15 per cent, 20 per cent, etc. above or below
the original investment in the aggressive portfolio. If the revision points are too
close, the number of transactions would be more and the transaction costs
would increase reducing the benefits of revision. If the revision points are set too
far apart, it may not be possible to profit from the price fluctuations occurring
between these revision points.
Example: Let us consider an investor who has Rs. 1,00,000 for investment. He
decides to invest Rs. 50,000 in an aggressive portfolio of equity shares and the
remaining Rs. 50,000 in a defensive portfolio of bonds and debentures. He
purchases 1250 shares selling at Rs. 40 per share for his aggressive portfolio. The
revision points are fixed as 20 per cent above or below the original investment of
Rs. 50,000.
After the construction of the portfolios, the share price will fluctuate. If the price
of the share increases to Rs. 45, the value of the aggressive portfolio increases to
Rs. 56,250 (1250 * Rs. 45). Since the revision points are fixed to 20 per cent
above or below the original investment, the investor will act only when the value
of the aggressive portfolio increases to Rs. 60,000 or falls to Rs. 40,000. If the
price of the share increases to Rs. 48 or above, the value of the aggressive
portfolio will exceed Rs. 60,000. Let us suppose that the price of the share
increases to Rs. 50, the value of the aggressive portfolio will be Rs. 62,500. The
investor will sell shares worth Rs. 12,500 (250 * Rs. 50) and transfer the amount
to the defensive portfolio by buying bonds for Rs. 12,500. The value of the
aggressive and defensive portfolios would now be Rs. 50,000 and Rs. 62,500
respectively. The aggressive portfolio now has only 1000 shares valued at Rs. 50
per share.
Let us now suppose that the share price falls to Rs. 40 per share. The value of the
aggressive portfolio would then be Rs. 40,000 (1000 * Rs. 40) which is 20 per
cent less than the original investment. The investor now has to buy shares worth
Rs. 10,000 (250* Rs. 40) to bring the value of the aggressive portfolio to its
original level of Rs. 50,000. The money required for buying the shares will be
raised by selling bonds from the defensive portfolio. The two portfolios now will
have values of Rs. 50,000 (aggressive) and Rs. 52,500 (i.e. Rs. 62,500 – Rs.
10,000) (defensive), aggregating to Rs. 1,02,500. It may be recalled that the
investor started with Rs. 1,00,000 as investment in two portfolios.
Thus, when the ‘constant rupee value plan’ is being implemented, funds will be
transferred from one portfolio to the other, whenever the value of the aggressive
portfolio increases or declines to the predetermined levels.
This is a variation of the constant rupee value plan. Here again the investor would
construct two portfolios, one aggressive and the other defensive with his
investment funds. The ratio between the investments in aggressive portfolio
and the defensive portfolio would be predetermined such as 1:1 or 1.5:1 etc. The
purpose of this plan is to keep this ratio constant by readjusting the two
portfolios when share prices fluctuate from time to time. For this purpose, a
revision point will also have to be predetermined.
Suppose the revision points may be fixed as +/- 0.10. This means that when the
ratio between the values of the aggressive portfolio and the defensive portfolio
moves up by 0.10 points or moves down by 0.10 points, the portfolios would be
adjusted by transfer of funds from one to the other.
Let us assume that an investor starts with Rs. 20,000, investing Rs. 10,000 each
in the aggressive portfolio and the defensive portfolio. The initial ratio is then 1:1.
He has predetermined the revision points as + 0.20. As share price increases the
value of the aggressive portfolio would rise. When the value of the aggressive
portfolio rises to Rs. 12,000, the ratio becomes 1.2:1 (i.e. Rs. 12,000 : Rs. 10,000).
Shares worth Rs. 1,000 will be sold and the amount transferred to the defensive
portfolio by buying bonds.
Now, the value of both the portfolios would be Rs. 11,000 and the ratio would
become 1:1. Now let us assume that the share prices are falling. The value of the
aggressive portfolio would start declining. If, for instance, the value declines to
Rs. 8,500, the ratio becomes 0.77:1 (i.e. Rs. 8,500 : Rs, 11,000). The ratio has
declined by more than 0.20 points. The investor now has to make the value of
both portfolios equal. He has to buy shares worth Rs. 1,250 by selling bonds for
an equivalent amount from his defensive portfolio. Now the value of the
aggressive portfolio increases by Rs. 1,250 and that of the defensive portfolio
decreases by Rs. 1,250. The values of both portfolios become Rs. 9,750 and the
ratio becomes 1:1. The adjustment of portfolios is done periodically in this
manner.
This is another method of passive portfolio revision. All formula plans assume
that stock prices fluctuate up and down in cycles. Dollar cost averaging utilizes
this cyclic movement in share prices to construct a portfolio at low cost.
The plan stipulates that the investor invest a constant sum, such as Rs. 5,000,
Rs. 10,000, etc. in a specified share or portfolio of shares regularly at periodical
intervals, such as a month, two months, a quarter, etc. regardless of the price of
the shares at the time of investment. This periodic investment is to be continued
over a fairly long period to cover a complete cycle of share price movements.
If the plan is implemented over a complete cycle of stock prices, the investor will
obtain his shares at a lower average cost per share than the average price
prevailing in the market over the period. This occurs because more shares would
be purchased at lower prices than at higher prices.
Portfolio management services (PMS) and mutual funds (MF) are avenues to
invest in stocks or bonds. Even though both of them are indirect ways of
investing in the markets, there is a lot of difference between the two.
• Non-discretionary PMS
Entry Load: An entry load is usually charged at the time of buying the PMS.
Profit Sharing: Some PMS schemes also have profit sharing arrangements,
wherein the provider charges a certain amount of fees or profit over the
stipulated return generated in the fund. There is no profit sharing in MF. Once
the fund management charge is paid, all the appreciation is owned by investors.
Fixed Fee: Some PMS schemes might have a fixed component in the place of the
profit sharing component and charge investors a fixed monthly fee. This is not a
percentage based fee and is decided before investing in the PMS. It could depend
on the size of the portfolio.
MF on the other hand, have a minimal expense ratio and exit load (up to a certain
period). Hence, MF are more cost effective than PMS.
Further, SEBI has imposed restrictions on MFs which take positions in derivative
instruments. However, PMS do not have any such restrictions, they are actively
managed and take considerably higher risky positions which could provide huge
upsides; however, if it goes wrong, the portfolio could drag down considerably.
Whereas In PMS capital gains are computed on each underlying transaction done
by the fund manager. In the structure of PMS, all the stock holdings are directly
in the name of investor (not units of a scheme). So, every time the portfolio
manager sells a share, there is an incidence of capital gain/loss for the individual
investor. If the share is held for less than 12 months, short term capital gains will
be taxed @ 15 percent.
Considering the underlying investment for PMS and diversified mutual funds is
similar it doesn’t make any sense to invest in PMS and structured products,
which are closed-ended, less transparent, tax inefficient and charge a higher fee.
PMS in India is still in its nascent stages and has a long way to go. Hence, we
believe that mutual funds remain one of the most suited ways of investing in the
markets.
12.