MEMORANDUM

TO: FROM: RE: DATE:

Interested Parties Rich Schaffer, Suffolk County Democratic Chairman Tim Bishop Polling Results November 2011

Congressman Tim Bishop Strongly Positioned for 2012 Re-Election

2011 Polling in the County Shows Solid Favorability Ratings for the Congressman
After a razor-tight victory in 2010 due to what was an extremely difficult political environment for Democratic candidates across the country, Congressman Tim Bishop is well positioned for a successful 2012 re-election campaign. Polling throughout Suffolk County during the recent 2011 election cycle shows Congressman Tim Bishop with much stronger favorability ratings than potential Republican challenger Randy Altschuler. Highlights from our 2011 polling include: Congressman Bishop holds a near 2-to-1 favorable-to-unfavorable ratio in the 1st Congressional District. According to a mid-October poll conducted among likely 2011 voters, Congressman Bishops favorable rating in New Yorks 1st district is 58% favorable and 31% unfavorable. Meanwhile, Randy Altshculers unfavorables are nearly as high as his favorables. In that same poll, Randy Altschulers favorable rating (31%) was only slightly higher than his unfavorable rating (27%). In other words, Bishop and Altshculer have near-identical unfavorable ratings, but Bishops favorable rating is 37 points higher. Opinion of Bishop is high across regional and political lines. Regionally, polls conducted across the County show Bishop with consistently strong favorability ratings. In Brookhaven, Bishops numbers are 61% favorable/33% unfavorable. In Southampton, they are 60% favorable/30% unfavorable. Politically, Bishops ratings are very good with Democrats (80% favorable/11% unfavorable). But Bishop also shows appeal outside of his base with strong ratings with Independent voters (60%/29%) and split ratings with Republicans (42%/44%). Outside the 1st district, Bishop is better known and better liked than Altschuler as a result of his years of service to Suffolk County. If redistricting moves the boundaries of the 1st district, Bishop is in a much better position to capture new voters. Outside of CD 1 (but within Suffolk County), a majority of voters (56%) have heard of Tim Bishop and a third of voters (35%) are favorable towards him. However, just a quarter of voters (27%) have heard of Randy Altschuler and few than one in five (18%) have a favorable opinion of him.

2 With Steve Bellones victory in the campaign for Suffolk County Executive along with other key victories for Democrats across the County, it is clear that the Republican wave that made 2010 competitive for Randy Altschuler has now ended. The political environment next year will no doubt be better for Congressman Bishop than it was in 2010 and he is well positioned to take advantage.
METHODOLOGICAL NOTE: The polls referenced in this memo had the following specifications: 1) The poll referencing data in and outside of the 1st Congressional District was conducted among 501 likely 2011 general election voters in Suffolk County on October 16-18, 2011. The partisan breakdown of that poll was 30% registered Democrat, 43% registered Republican and 26% other party. Within that poll, 283 interviewed were conducted among voters in the 1st Congressional District. 2) A second poll was conducted among 600 likely voters in Brookhaven on October 4-6, 2011. The partisan breakdown of that poll was 31% registered Democrat, 45% registered Republican and 24% other party. 3) A third poll was conducted among 300 likely voters in Southampton on September 19-21, 2011. The partisan breakdown of that poll was 30% registered Democrat, 42% registered Republican, 28% other.