Unit-4(2)

Logistic Growth Model: The fundamental differential equation of population is given by

d
log Pt  b(t )  d (t )  i (t )  e(t )
dt
In a closed population, the equation is
d
log Pt  b(t )  d (t ) (1)
dt
It has been gradually observed that in a population subjected to growth if  and are true birth
and death rates, then the observed rates b(t ) and d (t ) have the following tendency

b(t )    Pt (2)

d (t )    Pt (3)
The above equations show b(t ) and d (t ) are linear functions of the size of the population at time t
and the true birth rate gets reduced by a quantity proportional to size of the population and the
death rate gets enhanced by a similar proportions. These assumptions are valid only to a limited
extent.
Put the value of (2) and (3) in (1) we get
d
log Pt  (   Pt )  (  Pt )
dt
d
 log Pt  (    )  (   ) Pt
dt
d
 log Pt  r  hPt (4)
dt
Where r  (    ) and h  (   )
r
Writing w 
h
From eqn. (4) we have
d
log Pt  wh  hPt
dt
d 1 d
log Pt  h( w  Pt )  Pt  h( w  Pt )
dt Pt dt

1 d
Pt  h
Pt ( w  Pt ) dt

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 Unit-4(2)

dPt
 h dt
Pt ( w  Pt )
Integrating both sides we get
dPt
 P (w  P )dP  h t  log c
t t
t

Where log c is the constant of integration

1 1 1
 (  )dPt  h t  log c
w Pt ( w  Pt )

1
 (log Pt  log( w  Pt ))  h t  log c
w
 log Pt  log( w  Pt )  wh t  w log c

 P 
 log  t   wh t  w log c
 w  Pt 
 P  r
 log  t   h t  log c w
 w  Pt  h
 P 
 log  t   r t  log c w
 w  Pt 
 Pt 
 (w  P ) 
 log  t
  rt
 cw 
 

 P  w
  t  / c  e rt
 w  Pt 
 P  w rt
  t   c e
 w  Pt 
 Pt  ( w  Pt )c w e rt

 Pt  wc w e rt  Pt c w e rt

 Pt  Pt c w e rt  wc w e rt

 Pt (1  c w e rt )  wc w e rt

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 Unit-4(2)

 wc w e rt 
 Pt   
1 c e
w rt


 w 
 Pt    (Dividing num. and denom. by c w e rt )
 1 /( c e )  1 
w rt

 w  1
 Pt   rt 
Where k  w
 1  ke  c
This is the general form of the logistic curve.
Fitting of Logistic Curve By The Method of Three Points: The simplest method of fitting a
logistic curve is to choose three equidistant points say t=0, t=n and t=2n. The procedure is
described as follows:
We take the equation of logistic curve as
 w 
Pt   rt 
 1  ke 
 w  1 1 k 
P0      
1 k  P0  w 
Similarly

 w  1  1  ke rn 
Pn   rn 
  
 1  ke  Pn  w 

 w  1  1  ke2 rn 
And P2 n       
 1  ke
 2 rn
 P2 n  w 
1 1
Let d1  
P0 Pn

1 k   1  ke rn 
=   +  
 w   w 

 1  e  rn 
= k   (1)
 w 

Also

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 Unit-4(2)

1 1
d2  
Pn P2 n

 1  ke rn   1  ke2 rn 
=   +  
 w   w 

 ke rn (1  e  rn 
   (2)
 w 

Dividing (2) by (1) we get

d 2  ke rn (1  e  rn   k (1  e  rn ) 
    
d1  w   w 

d 2  ke rn (1  e  rn   w 
      
 rn 
d1  w   k (1  e ) 

d2
  e rn
d1

Now

d2
1 1  e rn
d1

d1  d 2
 1  e rn
d1

d1  d 2 wd1
  (using (1))
d1 k

d1  d 2 w
 2

d1 k

2
d1 k 1 1
   
d1  d 2 w P0 w

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 Unit-4(2)

2
1 1 d1
  
w P0 d1  d 2

1
 wˆ  2
(3)
1 d1

P0 d1  d 2

Again dividing (1) by (2), we get

d1  1  e  rn   ke rn (1  e  rn 
= k   ÷  
d2  w   w 

d1
  e rn
d2

d 
 log  1   rn
 d2 

1  d1 
 rˆ  log   (4)
n  d 2 

Having estimated r̂ and ŵ using (3) and (4) we have

1 1 k 
 
P0  w 

w
  1 k
P0

w
 kˆ  1
P0

Thus, all the parameters are estimated.

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 Unit-4(2)

Population Projection Technique: Projection of population implies forecasting of the

population in the future years to come on the basis of suitable assumptions of the determinants of
the population growth such as future pattern in fertility, mortality and migration. The success of
projection lies not only on the technique of population projection but also on how far realistic are
the assumptions related to the demographic factors affecting the size and growth of the
population in the future years to come. Needless it is to mention that projection process plays a
vital role in national planning, as no planning of resources is complete without knowledge of the
size of the population growing over time. The technique of population projection can be divided
into following classes:

1. Projection by using a single mathematical model such as projection by logistics,

Gompertz curve or any other deterministic models which have been believed by
demographers to describe the natural growth of population. However experience show
that a single equation model however realistic to the hypothesis of the same in building
the model is hardly successful in forecasting even long term trend of the population over
time. Although we have given due importance to the mathematical models in respect of
the same for making population projections their validity are always to be taken with a
degree of reservation. However, for short term projections it has been observed that the
performances of the latter are more or less fair.
2. Population projection by taking into account the components of the population growth
known as component method of population projection. These techniques are
understandable and empirically valid since these take into account each component of
growth individually; but again success of projection depends on the reality of assumption
technique in future years to come.
3. Population projection by employing the technique of stable on Quasi stable population
technique. These techniques are restrictively valid for stable population or population
which shows departure from stability because of departure from assumption in respect of
one of the fertility or mortality parameters only.

Frejeka’s Component Method: Factors affecting change in the future population are governed
by following:

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 Unit-4(2)

 Survivors of the present population in the year of projection say at every T th year,
T  0, t , 2t , 
 The number of births which occur from the current period T  0 (the base year of
projection) to a period T  t and so on.
 Adjustment of the migratory disturbances i.e., estimating emigrants over the immigrants
for natural population projection or immigrants over emigrants to protect the actual
population.

Let n Px = population in the age sector x to x  n in the calendar year z . The survivors of
z

z
the population after time t years will be n Pxt . Where we assume

Pxztt L
n
z
 n x t
n Px n Lx

Where n L x pertains to the life table valid for the period z to z  t .

Lx  t
 n Pxztt  n Pxz n

X nLx

n Pxztt  n Pxz n  x
t

Where n  x is known as the survival factor.

t

Applying the above for all x and n , one can project the first component of survivorship of the
present population, T  0 and T  t .

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 Unit-4(2)

Leslie Matrix (or Leslie Model): Leslie matrix or Leslie model is a discrete age structured
model of population growth that is very popular in population ecology. It was invented by and
named after Patrick H-Leslie. The Leslie matrix is one of the most well known ways to describe
the growth of population (and their projected age distribution), in which a population is closed to
migration and where only one sex, usually the female is considered.

The Leslie matrix is used in ecology to model the changes in the population of
organism over a period of time. Leslie matrix is generally applied to population with annual
breeding cycle. In a Leslie model the population is divided on the basis of age classes. A similar
model which replaces age classes with life stage is called Lefkovitch matrix, where by
individuals can both remain in the same stage (class) or move to the next one at each time step.
The population is represented by a vector with an element for each age class where each element
indicates the number of Individuals currently in that class.

The Leslie matrix is a square matrix with the same number of rows and column as the
population vector has elements. The (i,j)th cell in the matrix indicates how many individual will
be in the age class i at the next time step for each individual stage j. At each time step, the
population vector is multiplied by Leslie matrix to generate the population vector for the
following time step. To build a Leslie matrix, some information must be known from the
population.

 n x , the number of individuals of age class x .

 s x , the fraction of individuals that survives from age class x to x  1 .

 f x ,fecundity – the per capita average number of female off- springs reaching n 0

born from the mother of the age class x .

From the observation that n 0 at time t  1 is simply the sum of all off springs born from the

previous time step and that the organism surviving up to time t  1 are the organisms at time t

surviving at probability s x , one gets n x 1  s x nn . Then this motivates following matrix

representation

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 Unit-4(2)

 n0   f1 f2  f w 2 f w1   n0 
n  s 0  0 0   n1 
 1   0
    0 s1  0 0   
    
          
n w1   0 0  s w 2 0  n w1 
t 1

Where w is the maximum age attainable in the population. This can be written as

nt 1  Lnt or nt  Lt no

Where nt the population is vector at time t and L is the Leslie matrix.