DR Fiza Zafar Talk On Elk-Wolf Population

On Elk-Wolf Population Dynamic Models of
Yellowstone National Park
Fiza Zafar, Maria Saleem and Hadeeqa Iqbal
CASPAM, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan
May 27, 2016
Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Topical Resume of the Talk

History of Yellowstone National Park


Elk-Wolf Population Trend in Yellowstone National Park


Some Population Dynamic Models


Elk-Wolf Population Model


Simulink Model


Simulink Model
Conclusions


In 1872, Yellowstone was established by U.S. Congress as the

…rst national park in the world. A new concept was born and
with it a new way for people to preserve and protect the best
of what they had for the bene…t and enjoyment of future
generations.


generations.
It is primarily located in the U.S. state of Wyoming, although
it also extends into Montana and Idaho.


generations.
It is extended to approximately 2.2 million acres.


generations.
It is extended to approximately 2.2 million acres.
Hundreds of species of mammals, birds, …sh and reptiles have
been documented, including several that are either endangered
or threatened.




Elk had remianed as the most abundant and are the large
mammal found in Yellowstone national park. Nearly the whole
park provides summer range for elk. However, winter snowfalls
force elks to leave the greater part of the park. Only the
northern, lower-elevation portion of Yellowstone, where
temperatures are more moderate can support large numbers
of wintering elk.

of wintering elk.
When Yellowstone National Park was created in 1872, gray
wolf populations were already in decline in Montana,
Wyoming and Idaho.

of wintering elk.
When Yellowstone National Park was created in 1872, gray
wolf populations were already in decline in Montana,
Wyoming and Idaho.
The creation of the national park did not provide protection
for wolves or other predators, and government predator
control programs in the …rst decades of the 1900s essentially
helped eliminate the gray wolf from Yellowstone. The last
wolves were killed in Yellowstone in 1926.


In 1970, an American Wolf expert David Mech declared Gray

Wolves as an endangered specie.


In 1978, wildlife biologist John Weaver, in his study
recommends the re-introduction of Wolves in the Yellowstone
National Park because once the wolves were gone in 1926, the
elk began to take over. From 1935 to 1968, elk, pronghorn,
and bison numbers were arti…cially controlled by shooting or
trapping and removal by park rangers due to the belief that
elk grazing was damaging to northern range vegetation and
that grazing accelerates erosion.


In 1978, wildlife biologist John Weaver, in his study
recommends the re-introduction of Wolves in the Yellowstone
National Park because once the wolves were gone in 1926, the
elk began to take over. From 1935 to 1968, elk, pronghorn,
and bison numbers were arti…cially controlled by shooting or
trapping and removal by park rangers due to the belief that
elk grazing was damaging to northern range vegetation and
that grazing accelerates erosion.
The elk were multiplying inside the park and deciduous,
woody species such as aspen and cottonwood su¤ered from
overgrazing. The park service started trapping and moving the
elk and, when that was not e¤ective, killing them. This killing
continued for more than 30 years.


For these reasons the wolves were transported into

Yellowstone for release in January 1995. In the …rst year,
di¤erent packs of 21 wolves were released.

For these reasons the wolves were transported into

Yellowstone for release in January 1995. In the …rst year,
di¤erent packs of 21 wolves were released.
Since, then the Elk-Wolf population dynamics has been a
topic of interest for many biologist as well as for the analysts
of Yellowstone park.


Residing Elk and Reintroduced Gray Wolf in Yellowstone National Park


According to o¢ cial data of Yellowstone the count of wolves and
elk from 1995 to 2014 is given below:
Year Elks Count Wolves Count

1995 16791 21
1996 no count 51
1997 13400 86
1998 11736 112
1999 11742 118
2000 14539 119
2001 13400 132
2002 11969 148
2003 9215 174
2004 8335 171
2005 9545 118


Year Elks Count Wolves Count

2006 6,588 136
2007 6,738 171
2008 6,279 124
2009 6,070 96
2010 4,635 97
2011 4,174 98
2012 3,915 83
2013 3, 000 95
2014 4844 104
Table 1: Elks and Wolves from 1995-2014

Yellowstone National Park Wolf count,1995-2014.
The data reveals that the population of elks has severely declined
after the reintroduction of predator. Recently, in an article by
Brett French, the Yellowstone park is declared to be a carnivore
abundant yet the preys are declining at a sharp rate.

Malthusian Model
Malthusian model(1798) states that " the rate at which the
population of a country grows at a certain time is proportional to
the total population of the country at that time". In mathematical
terms, if P (t ) denotes the total population at time t, then this
simplest model of population growth is described by the initial
value problem (I.V.P) given by:
dP
= kP, P (t0 ) = P0 , (1)
dt
where k is a constant of proportionality. This simple model, which
fails to take into account many factors ( for example, immigration
and emigration) that can in‡uence human populations to either
grow or decline, nevertheless turned out to be fairly accurate in
predicting the population of the United States during the year
1790-1860.
Logistic Growth Model
Malthusian model represents unlimited growth over time. The
Malthusian model does not accurately describes the growth of
population when the population itself is very large. Verhulst
showed in 1846 that the rate at which a population grows (or
declines) is dependent only on the number present and not on any
time-dependent mechanisms can be stated as
dP/dt
= f (P )
P
or
dP r
= P (r P ). (2)
dt K
Relabeling constants, the nonlinear equation (2) is the same as
dP
= P (a bP ).
dt
Predator Prey Model

Suppose that two di¤erent species of animals interact with in the
same environment. Suppose …rst species only eat vegetation and
second eats only …rst species. Since second species is predator and
…rst is prey. Let x (t ) and y (t ) denote predator and prey
population at time t. Then,
dx
= ax + bxy = x ( a + by ) (3)
dt
dy
= cxy + dy = y (d cx )
dt
where a, b, c, d are positive constants. This system of equations is
known as Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model (1926).

Stability Analysis of Predator-Prey Model
Phase Potrait of Predator-Prey Model

Population Dynamic Model of Elk-Wolf Population
We present a mathematical model for the interaction among

elk-wolf in yellowstone national park. Generally, predator-prey
system of …rst order di¤erential equations for elks and wolves can
be written as:
dW
= aW + bEW , (4)
dt
dE
= dE cEW , (5)
dt
where W(t) is the population of wolves and E(t) is the population
of elk. All the constants are positive, with d measuring the death
rate of wolves, a the birth rate of elk, and c, b are the interaction
between the two species.

Let’s consider the following predator-prey model for the interaction

between the elks and wolves within the yellowstone ecosystem
based on the actual data given in Table 1.
From Table 1, let us set the initial conditions as W (0) = 171 and
W (8) = 83 for determining the death rate of wolves as follows:
The population growth model for wolves becomes
dW
= rW (6)
dt
where W (0) = 171 and W (8) = 83.
The solution of equation (6) is
W (t ) = W0 e rt .
By putting the initial conditions, we get r = 0.0903. Hence,

a 0.09.

In the similar manner, from Table 1, let us set the initial conditions
as E (0) = 13, 000 and E (10) = 16, 791 for determining the birth
rate of elks prior to reintroduction of wolves as follows:
The population growth model for elks becomes:
dE
= rE (7)
dt
where E (0) = 13, 000 and E (10) = 16, 791.
The solution of equation (7) is
E (t ) = E0 e rt .
By putting the initial conditions, we get r = 0.0255. Hence,

d 0.03.

Therefore, the above equation (5) takes the form:
dE
= 0.03E 1.4EW ,
dt
dW
= 0.09W + 0.017EW . (8)
dt
where E (0) = 16, 791 and W (0) = 21 are the initial populations
of elks and wolves.

Simulink Model of Elk-Wolf Population
Simulink, a tool box of MATLAB, create control models, and

analyse them quantitatively.
Rewriting the system (8) as follows:
dE
= E (0.03 1.4W ),
dt
dW
= W ( 0.09 + 0.017E ). (9)
dt
Thus,
Z
E = E (C 1 G1 W)
Z
W = W (C 2 + G 2 E ).

Simulink Model of Elk-Wolf Population
Now, the simulink model of equations (9) is shown below:
Simulink Model
Polpulation Trend
Population Trends of Elk-Wolf Simulink Model

Predicted Populations of Elk-Wolf
Year Elks Wolves

1995 16,791 21
1997 16,592 31
1999 15,856 45
2001 14,484 63
2003 12,529 84
2005 10,242 102
2007 7,983 117
2009 6,040 124
2011 4,529 123
2013 3,424 118
2014 3000 114
2015 2,643 109
2016 2,345 104
Table 2: Predicted Values of Elks and Wolves from 1995-2016
Conclusion
The analyzed and predicted Elk-Wolf population of

Yellowstone park when compared with the actual data given in
Table 1 show that the model (8) is predicting the actual
phenomena in a fairly accurate way.

Conclusion

Our model (8) describes a slow decline in the population of
wolves and predicts the current …gure as 109. Infact, the
actual decline is not only due to few elks but also due to
harvesting and hunting of the wolves.

Conclusion

Our model (8) describes a slow decline in the population of
wolves and predicts the current …gure as 109. Infact, the
actual decline is not only due to few elks but also due to
harvesting and hunting of the wolves.
Moreover, our peak value of wolves 124 is attained for the
year 2009, the year in which the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service
changed the status of the gray wolf population known as the
Northern Rocky Mountains Distinct Population Segment from
Endangered to Experimental Population-Non Essential.

Conclusion
It has been addressed several times by Yellowstone o¢ cial news

resources that the re-introduction of wolves caused the elk
population, their favored prey, to decline sharply. The constant
presence of wolves have pushed elk into less favorable habitats,
raised their stress level, lowered their nutrition and their overall
birth rate. Prior to reintroduction, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife
Service through an Environmental Impact Statement predicted
that wolves would kill an average 12/wolf elk annually. This
estimate proved too low as wolves are now killing an average of
22/wolf annually. This decline in elk has resulted in changes in
‡ora, most speci…cally willows, cottonwoods and aspens along the
fringes of heavily timbered areas.

References
Dennis G. Zill , First Course in Di¤erential Equation with

Modeling Application, 10th edition, Brooks/Cole, Boston,
2013.
Annual Wolf Project Reports, Yellowstone National Park,
1995–2014.
Yellowstone National Park Wyoming, USA O¢ cial Website:
www.nps.gov/yell/.

Thank you

Q

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On Elk-Wolf Population Dynamic Models of

Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar, Maria Saleem and Hadeeqa Iqbal

CASPAM, Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan

May 27, 2016

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

History of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

History of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

History of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

History of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

History of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

History of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

In 1872, Yellowstone was established by U.S. Congress as the

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

In 1872, Yellowstone was established by U.S. Congress as the

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

In 1872, Yellowstone was established by U.S. Congress as the

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

In 1872, Yellowstone was established by U.S. Congress as the

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

In 1970, an American Wolf expert David Mech declared Gray

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

In 1970, an American Wolf expert David Mech declared Gray

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

In 1970, an American Wolf expert David Mech declared Gray

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

For these reasons the wolves were transported into

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

For these reasons the wolves were transported into

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Residing Elk and Reintroduced Gray Wolf in Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Year Elks Count Wolves Count

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Year Elks Count Wolves Count

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Predator Prey Model

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Phase Potrait of Predator-Prey Model

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

We present a mathematical model for the interaction among

Fiza Zafar Elk-Wolf Population of Yellowstone National Park

Let’s consider the following predator-prey model for the interaction