US Web order daily rates (fwd 30 dma)

Datetime (PST) Order# days orders rate

12/26/2003 00:00 6912 35.00 375 10.71 24.0
01/16/2004 00:00 7143 14.00 144 10.29 21.0
01/27/2004 00:00 7248 35.00 335 9.57 11.0
01/30/2004 00:00 7287 32.00 296 9.25 3.0
03/02/2004 00:00 7583 7.00 59 8.43 32.0
03/09/2004 00:00 7642 41.00 347 8.46 7.0
04/19/2004 00:00 7989 49.00 425 8.67 41.0
06/07/2004 00:00 8414 33.00 311 9.42 49.0
06/12/2004 00:00 8472 28.00 253 9.04 5.0
07/10/2004 00:00 8725 52.00 530 10.19 28.0
08/31/2004 00:00 9255 57.00 564 9.89 52.0
10/27/2004 00:00 9819 30.00 353 11.77 57.0
11/26/2004 00:00 10172 30.00 707 23.57 30.0
12/09/2004 00:00 10459 27.00 564 20.89 13.0
12/26/2004 00:00 10879 28.00 436 15.57 17.0
01/05/2005 00:00 11023 33.00 413 12.52 10.0
01/23/2005 00:00 11315 34.00 530 15.59 18.0
02/07/2005 00:00 11436 35.00 663 18.94 15.0
02/26/2005 00:00 11845 31.00 454 14.65 19.0
03/02/2005 00:00 11925 33.00 442 13.39 4.0
03/14/2005 00:00 12099 32.00 459 14.34 12.0
03/29/2005 00:00 12299 31.00 475 15.32 15.0
04/04/2005 00:00 12367 30.00 539 17.97 6.0
04/10/2005 00:00 12437 31.00 581 18.74 6.0
04/15/2005 00:00 12558 26.00 460 17.69 5.0
04/25/2005 00:00 12699 16.00 319 19.94 10.0
04/29/2005 00:00 12774 34.00 574 16.88 4.0
05/04/2005 00:00 12906 29.00 442 15.24 5.0
05/11/2005 00:00 13018 34.00 507 14.91 7.0
06/02/2005 00:00 13348 26.00 368 14.15 22.0
06/14/2005 00:00 13525 35.00 469 13.40 12.0
06/28/2005 00:00 13716 34.00 447 13.15 14.0
07/13/2005 00:00 13909 34.00 475 13.97 15.0
07/19/2005 00:00 13994 32.00 453 14.16 6.0
08/01/2005 00:00 14163 28.00 391 13.96 13.0
08/07/2005 00:00 14256 31.48 412 13.09 6.0
08/16/2005 00:00 14384 34.75 564 16.22 9.0
08/20/2005 00:00 14447 30.75 501 16.28 4.0
08/24/2005 06:42 14494 31.72 563 17.74 4.3
08/29/2005 00:00 14554 31.57 584 18.51 4.7
09/07/2005 11:25 14668 28.88 577 19.97 9.5
09/13/2005 21:00 14827 30.53 569 18.64 6.4
09/19/2005 18:03 14948 31.62 599 18.96 5.9
09/24/2005 23:58 15057 32.61 614 18.84 5.2
09/29/2005 13:43 15138 28.03 533 19.01 4.6
10/06/2005 08:32 15245 28.34 556 19.61 6.8
10/14/2005 09:40 15396 28.02 557 19.89 8.0
10/21/2005 09:00 15547 28.11 569 20.23 7.0
10/27/2005 14:30 15671 32.74 854 26.10 6.2
11/03/2005 16:42 15800 28.79 899 31.23 7.1
11/11/2005 10:02 15953 34.18 1756 51.39 7.7
11/18/2005 11:41 16116 27.11 1594 58.79 7.1
11/25/2005 12:07 16338 28.46 1898 66.69 7.0
11/29/2005 08:10 16525 32.36 1964 60.70 3.8
12/02/2005 11:40 16700 29.21 1790 61.27 3.1
12/09/2005 15:19 17198 33.84 1580 46.68 7.2
12/15/2005 14:15 17710 34.64 1219 35.20 6.0
12/23/2005 23:08 18236 32.51 815 25.07 8.4
12/31/2005 16:42 18489 30.65 667 21.77 7.7
01/06/2006 11:48 18621 32.08 677 21.11 5.8
01/12/2006 11:26 18778 33.82 678 20.05 6.0
01/19/2006 05:30 18929 27.07 528 19.49 6.8 Web order daily rate (fwd
01/25/2006 11:17 19050 28.87 547 18.95 6.2
70
01/31/2006 08:18 19156 30.11 567 18.84 5.9
65
02/07/2006 13:42 19298 31.18 565 18.11 7.2 60
02/15/2006 07:08 19456 30.39 510 16.79 7.7 55
02/23/2006 08:05 19597 29.02 464 15.98 8.0 50
03/02/2006 10:53 19724 30.43 458 15.06 7.1 45
03/10/2006 18:05 19863 34.85 502 14.41 8.3 40
03/17/2006 16:28 19966 33.61 474 14.11 6.9 35
30
03/24/2006 08:30 20061 32.98 479 14.52 6.7
25
04/01/2006 21:08 20182 30.71 431 14.05 8.5 20
04/07/2006 23:50 20273 31.70 444 14.01 6.1 15
04/14/2006 14:29 20365 31.86 458 14.37 6.6 10
04/20/2006 07:00 20441 33.52 512 15.29 5.7 5
04/26/2006 08:00 20540 27.48 413 15.03 6.0 0
05/02/2006 14:10 20613 30.04 472 15.73 6.3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
05/09/2006 16:45 20717 30.01 489 16.31 7.1 2 1 3 4 6 8 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /
05/16/2006 11:02 20823 30.86 511 16.57 6.8
05/23/2006 19:35 20953 31.35 509 16.24 7.4
r
06/01/2006 15:01 21086 30.36 491 16.18 8.8
06/08/2006 16:54 21206 29.02 453 15.61 7.1 Short term forecasting (next 2 months)
06/16/2006 07:38 21334 34.02 513 15.08 7.6 Datetime (PST) ord# yr ago days orders
06/24/2006 04:00 21462 33.24 500 15.04 7.8 06/24/2006 04:00 21462 13666
07/01/2006 23:45 21577 31.45 479 15.22 7.8 07/02/2006 00:00 21577 13767 7.83 115
07/07/2006 17:25 21659 31.82 499 15.69 5.7 07/07/2006 17:25 21659 13841 5.73 82
07/14/2006 04:35 21753 32.91 556 16.90 6.5 07/14/2006 04:35 21753 13926 6.47 94
07/20/2006 08:05 21847 34.53 604 17.49 6.1 07/20/2006 08:05 21847 14011 6.15 94
07/27/2006 09:46 21962 27.46 488 17.79 7.1 07/27/2006 09:46 21962 14102 7.07 115
08/02/2006 10:30 22056 29.30 527 18.00 6.0 08/02/2006 10:30 22056 14184 6.03 93
08/08/2006 13:00 22158 30.78 540 17.56 6.1 08/08/2006 12:33 22166 14278 6.09 111
08/16/2006 02:19 22309 30.06 548 18.23 7.6 08/16/2006 02:19 22309 14386 7.57 143
08/23/2006 20:45 22451 30.73 597 19.41 7.8 08/23/2006 20:45 22451 14490 7.77 141
08/31/2006 17:35 22583 30.67 608 19.83 7.9 08/31/2006 17:35 22583 14577 7.87 132
09/08/2006 07:48 22699 29.30 611 20.84 7.6 09/08/2006 07:48 22699 14685 7.59 116
09/15/2006 03:44 22857 33.12 642 19.38 6.8 09/15/2006 21:27 22883 14871 7.57 184
09/23/2006 14:20 23047 29.03 531 18.28 8.4 09/23/2006 14:20 23047 15029 7.70 164
10/01/2006 09:40 23191 29.93 557 18.60 7.8 10/01/2006 09:40 23191 15166 7.81 144
10/07/2006 15:06 23310 23.70 438 18.49 6.2 10/07/2006 15:06 23310 15266 6.23 118
10/13/2006 22:05 23423 32.58 618 18.98 6.3 10/13/2006 22:05 23423 15386 6.29 113
10/18/2006 06:33 23499 28.23 542 19.19 4.4 10/18/2006 06:33 23499 15479 4.35 77
10/22/2006 15:02 23578 23.87 463 19.39 4.4 10/22/2006 15:02 23578 15574 4.35 79
10/31/2006 08:00 23748 30.33 789 26.00 8.7 10/31/2006 08:00 23748 15739 8.71 170
11/15/2006 12:00 24041 15.17 496 32.67 15.2 11/15/2006 12:00 24041 16037 15.17 293
11/30/2006 16:00 24537 31.01 6.6 11/30/2006 16:00 24537 16588 15.17 496

Short term forecasting (next 2

38
35
33
30
28
25
23
20
18
15
13
10
2-Jul 9-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27-Aug 3-Sep 10-Sep 17-Sep 24-S

rate yr ago
Web order daily rate (fwd 30 dma) and regressions

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1
5 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 0
/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /

rate
ng (next 2 months)
% rel rate yr ago events
interp 10/13 23423 18.60 24.0 -23%
13.3% 14.65 12.92 EoQ interp 10/22 23578 18.60 24.2 -23%
11.6% 14.36 12.87 project 11/15 24142 26.00 24.8 5%
10.8% 14.50 13.09 Nike+sh
10.3% 15.28 13.85
26.5% 16.31 12.89 Mighty2
13.6% 15.49 13.63 Jul
18.4% 18.19 15.36 MacPro
32.4% 18.87 14.25
35.6% 18.21 13.43
51.7% 16.83 11.10 Aug
7.5% 15.25 14.19 iMac 24"
-1.3% 24.30 24.62 iTunes7
 4.3% 21.35 20.47
5.1% 18.44 17.54 EoQ
18.6% 19.02 16.03
-5.9% 17.97 19.09
-17.6% 17.59 21.36 2.05 (interpolation)
-17.1% 18.10 21.84 2.10 (interpolation)
2.8% 19.51 18.97 Oct est 18.60 (current trend and planned events)
-1.6% 19.33 19.64 2.70 (interpolation)
-10.2% 32.67 36.37 Nov est 26.00 (long-term trends and seasonality)

term forecasting (next 2 months)

10-Sep 17-Sep 24-Sep 1-Oct 8-Oct 15-Oct 22-Oct 29-Oct 5-Nov 12-Nov 19-Nov 26-Nov 3-Dec

yr ago events
ov 26-Nov 3-Dec
Monthly interpolation / projections / adjustments
Month est Ord# est rate rate regr %diff avg adj acc adj err
Dec-03 6934 12.3 8.5 44% 17% -185% 40%
Jan-04 7252 10.5 9.1 15% 12% -169% 6%
Feb-04 7542 9.6 9.4 1% -7% -168% 13%
Mar-04 7801 8.5 9.9 -14% -12% -182% -3%
Apr-04 8060 8.5 10.1 -16% -12% -198% -7%
May-04 8323 8.7 10.7 -19% -15% -217% -7%
Jun-04 8607 9.4 11.1 -15% -13% -232% -3%
Jul-04 8898 9.6 11.3 -15% -11% -247% -7%
Aug-04 9210 10.3 11.5 -10% -3% -258% -12%
Sep-04 9508 9.8 11.6 -15% -4% -273% -19%
Oct-04 9812 10.0 12.1 -17% -9% -290% -14%
Nov-04 10168 11.7 12.5 -6% 10% -296% -28%
Dec-04 10879 23.4 13.9 69% 35% -227% 52%
Jan-05 11334 15.0 15.0 0% 7% -227% -12%
Feb-05 11816 15.9 15.5 3% -3% -225% 9%
Mar-05 12272 15.0 15.7 -4% -9% -229% 8%
Apr-05 12724 14.9 15.9 -6% -10% -235% 6%
May-05 13252 17.4 15.9 9% -7% -226% 24%
Jun-05 13689 14.4 16.2 -11% -13% -237% 2%
Jul-05 14089 13.2 16.5 -20% -15% -257% -9%
Aug-05 14512 13.9 16.7 -16% -9% -273% -13%
Sep-05 15057 18.0 16.9 6% 0% -267% 10%
Oct-05 15672 18.8 17.3 9% -2% -258% 18%
Nov-05 16525 26.1 17.6 48% 23% -210% 38%
Dec-05 18496 60.3 18.1 234% 91% 24% 199%
Jan-06 19156 21.8 18.5 18% 11% 42% 11%
Feb-06 19727 18.8 18.8 0% -2% 42% 3% Monthly interpolation / projection / adjustments Seasonality
Mar-06 20184 15.0 19.2 -21% -14% 21% -12% 100.0 200% 100%
Apr-06 20610 14.1 19.5 -28% -17% -7% -18%
May-06 21086 15.7 19.7 -20% -12% -28% -14% 75%
80.0 160%
Jun-06 21577 16.2 20.0 -19% -15% -47% -6% 50%
Jul-06 22039 15.2 20.0 -24% -18% -71% -9% 60.0 120%
25%
Aug-06 22582 17.9 20.0 -11% -9% -81% -2%
Sep-06 23184 19.8 20.0 -1% -1% -82% -1% 40.0 80% 0%
Oct-06 23748 18.6 20.2 -8% -4% -90% -6% -25%
Nov-06 24537 26.0 20.0 30% 26% -60% 7% 20.0 40%
Dec-06 25900 45.0 23.6 91% 91% 31% 0% -50%
0.0 0%
Jan-07 26773 28.8 25.9 11% 11% 42% 0% -75%
Feb-07 27574 26.4 26.9 -2% -2% 40% 0% -20.0 -40% -100%
Mar-07 28295 23.8 27.6 -14% -14% 26% 0%
DF A J AOD F A J AOD F A J AOD F A J AO DF A J AOD F D F A JJ S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J
Apr-07 29000 23.2 28.0 -17% -17% 9% 0% e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e p u u ct e e e e p uu e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a a a u e o a
May-07 29753 24.9 28.3 -12% -12% -3% 0% c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b r- n g - c b c b r- nl p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n r- y- l p v n
Jun-07 30491 24.3 28.7 -15% -15% -18% 0%
Jul-07 31210 23.7 29.0 -18% -18% -37% 0% est rate rate regr %diff acc adj err
Aug-07 32014 26.5 29.2 -9% -9% -46% 0%
Sep-07 32910 29.5 29.7 -1% -1% -47% 0% Quarterly orders and revenue Stock valuation
Oct-07 33793 29.1 30.4 -4% -4% -51% 0% 12000 100 200
Nov-07 34980 39.1 31.1 26% 26% -25% 0%
Dec-07 36858 61.9 32.5 91% 91% 66% 0% 10000
Jan-08 38041 39.0 35.1 11% 11% 77% 0% 75 150
Feb-08 39122 35.6 36.4 -2% -2% 75% 0% 8000
Mar-08 40095 32.1 37.3 -14% -14% 61% 0%
Apr-08 41049 31.4 37.9 -17% -17% 44% 0% 6000 50 100

pe
May-08 42072 33.7 38.4 -12% -12% 32% 0%
Jun-08 43077 33.1 39.0 -15% -15% 16% 0% 4000
Jul-08 44058 32.4 39.6 -18% -18% -2% 0% 25 50
Aug-08 45160 36.3 40.1 -9% -9% -11% 0% 2000
Sep-08 46392 40.6 40.8 -1% -1% -12% 0%
Oct-08 47605 40.0 41.8 -4% -4% -16% 0% 0 - 0
Nov-08 49239 53.9 42.8 26% 26% 10% 0%
De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M Ju Se De M D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M Ju S D M
Dec-08 51815 84.9 44.5 91% 91% 100% 0% c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- n- p- c- ar- ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar n- ep ec ar
Jan-09 53420 52.9 47.7 11% 11% 111% 0% 03 04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 06 06 06 06 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 - - 04 - - - 05 - - - 06 - - - 07 - - - 08 - - -
Feb-09 54885 48.3 49.3 -2% -2% 109% 0%
Mar-09 56203 43.5 50.5 -14% -14% 95% 0% orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc

Quarterly / financials
Quarter orders rev rev/ord ord regr rev regr r/o regr halo rev grw opex dev g mrgn op ex cash st inv int int rate tax tax rate sh cnt eps ttm pps pe fwd pe dsc pe fw+dsc 1q grw 1y grw cash/sh 1y rtrn mkt cap
Dec-03 901 2006 2227 839 1931 2301 36% 2.6% 26.7% 462 3724 1067 9 1.7% 23 27.8% 745 0.08 0.17 10.69 64.13 16.41 25.55 6.54 412% 35% 6.43 49% 7.96
Mar-04 867 1909 2201 912 2122 2326 29% 1.8% 27.8% 468 3158 1436 12 1.4% 18 24.3% 756 0.07 0.22 13.52 61.62 14.76 33.94 8.13 247% 143% 6.07 91% 10.23 4
Jun-04 806 2014 2500 992 2332 2352 30% 1.7% 27.8% 479 3120 1846 13 1.3% 24 25.8% 785 0.09 0.28 16.27 57.85 13.56 35.36 8.29 237% 287% 6.32 71% 12.78 4
Sep-04 902 2350 2607 1078 2563 2377 37% 3.1% 27.0% 501 2969 2495 19 1.6% 41 27.0% 806 0.14 0.38 19.38 51.05 13.47 33.19 8.76 250% 271% 6.78 87% 15.62 3
Dec-04 1371 3490 2546 1172 2816 2404 74% 3.8% 28.5% 593 2475 3973 26 2.4% 134 31.2% 838 0.35 0.65 32.20 49.42 18.58 37.61 14.14 340% 291% 7.69 201% 26.99 1
Mar-05 1393 3243 2328 1274 3095 2430 70% 1.6% 29.8% 566 2254 4803 33 3.4% 145 33.3% 857.01 0.34 0.92 41.67 45.49 22.39 36.50 17.97 357% 317% 8.23 208% 35.71 1
Jun-05 1416 3520 2485 1385 3401 2457 75% 1.0% 29.7% 617 3094 4432 46 4.6% 153 32.3% 861 0.37 1.20 36.81 30.68 18.15 23.39 13.84 323% 327% 8.74 126% 31.68 1
Sep-05 1368 3678 2688 1505 3738 2483 57% -0.2% 28.1% 617 3491 4770 60 5.8% 152 31.8% 866 0.38 1.44 53.61 37.27 24.16 30.64 19.87 173% 279% 9.53 177% 46.45 1
Dec-05 3439 5749 1672 1647 4138 2513 65% 0.8% 27.2% 814 4150 4557 81 6.8% 266 32.0% 874 0.65 1.73 71.89 41.49 29.12 35.74 25.09 84% 166% 9.96 123% 62.85 14
Mar-06 1688 4359 2583 1790 4547 2540 34% 4.0% 29.8% 768 6346 1880 76 6.2% 195 32.2% 879 0.47 1.86 62.72 33.70 22.66 28.67 19.28 38% 103% 9.36 51% 55.10 12
Jun-06 1393 4370 3136 1946 4997 2568 4370 24% 2.7% 30.3% 759 8013 1163 95 5.7% 189 28.6% 876 0.54 2.03 57.27 28.24 19.20 23.08 15.69 45% 69% 10.47 56% 50.19 10
Sep-06 1607 4820 3000 2115 5492 2596 4908 31% 3.5% 29.0% 778 8384 1221 118 6.0% 236 32.0% 885 0.57 2.22 74.22 33.45 22.90 28.56 19.55 51% 54% 10.85 38% 65.68
Dec-06 2716 7130 2625 2299 6035 2625 7182 24% 3.4% 28.5% 1018 9233 1282 166 6.0% 378 32.0% 895 0.90 2.47 87.41 35.41 25.00 30.65 21.64 39% 42% 11.75 22% 78.23
Mar-07 2395 6355 2654 2499 6632 2654 6106 46% 3.3% 29.2% 980 9632 1346 134 6.0% 323 32.0% 897 0.77 2.77 95.01 34.33 25.00 29.91 21.78 64% 49% 12.24 51% 85.20
Jun-07 2197 5893 2683 2717 7288 2683 5966 35% 3.0% 29.3% 855 10049 1414 127 6.0% 320 32.0% 902 0.75 2.98 103.98 34.86 25.00 30.60 21.94 40% 47% 12.71 82% 93.78
Sep-07 2419 6560 2712 2953 8009 2712 6378 36% 2.5% 28.5% 920 10681 1484 151 6.0% 352 32.0% 907 0.83 3.24 114.77 35.41 25.00 31.28 22.08 46% 46% 13.41 55% 104.10
Dec-07 3948 8883 2250 3210 8802 2742 8918 25% 2.5% 28.5% 1181 11743 1559 195 6.0% 495 32.0% 912 1.15 3.50 123.31 35.27 25.00 31.10 22.04 29% 42% 14.58 41% 112.47
Mar-08 3237 8972 2772 3490 9673 2772 7878 41% 2.5% 28.0% 1245 12548 1636 176 6.0% 462 32.0% 917 1.07 3.80 137.23 36.11 25.00 32.04 22.18 40% 37% 15.46 44% 125.88
Jun-08 2982 8357 2802 3793 10630 2802 7582 42% 2.5% 28.0% 1008 13354 1718 177 6.0% 483 32.0% 923 1.11 4.16 147.76 35.53 25.00 31.60 22.24 48% 39% 16.34 42% 136.32
Sep-08 3315 9391 2833 4123 11682 2833 8012 43% 2.5% 28.0% 1120 14447 1804 205 6.0% 549 32.0% 928 1.26 4.59 158.82 34.60 25.00 30.78 22.24 52% 42% 17.52 38% 147.35
Dec-08 5423 11388 2100 4482 12838 2864 10959 28% 2.5% 28.0% 1388 15828 1894 249 6.0% 656 32.0% 933 1.49 4.93 166.09 33.67 25.00 29.82 22.14 30% 41% 18.99 35% 154.97
Mar-09 4389 12708 2896 4872 14108 2896 9989 42% 2.5% 28.0% 1555 17248 1989 242 6.0% 718 32.0% 938 1.63 5.49 179.93 32.78 25.00 29.05 22.15 52% 44% 20.50 31% 168.84
Jun-09 3728 10912 2927 5296 15504 2927 9525 31% 2.5% 28.0% 1182 18307 2089 255 6.0% 681 32.0% 944 1.53 5.91 177.31 30.00 25.00 26.34 21.95 38% 42% 21.61 20% 167.33
Sep-09 4143 12262 2959 5757 17038 2959 9962 31% 2.5% 28.0% 1344 19825 2193 282 6.0% 759 32.0% 949 1.70 6.35 190.59 30.00 25.00 26.35 21.96 35% 38% 23.20 20% 180.87
Dec-09 6779 13557 2000 6258 18724 2992 13365 19% 2.5% 28.0% 1621 21403 2303 329 6.0% 801 32.0% 954 1.78 6.64 199.31 30.00 25.00 26.26 21.88 19% 35% 24.84 20% 190.22
Mar-10 5486 16593 3025 6803 20577 3025 12459 31% 2.5% 28.0% 1893 23490 2418 325 6.0% 985 32.0% 960 2.18 7.20 215.92 30.00 25.00 26.25 21.87 34% 31% 26.99 20% 207.25
7.09 20%
0.5669 7.62 20%
24197 7.97 20%
8.64 20%
 9/14 10/5 10/14 11/3 11/18 11/30 12/15 12/31 1/6 1/12 1/19 1/31 2/7 2/23 3/2 3/17
F05Q4 .35 .34 .39
F06Q1 .56 .55 .59 .57 .60 .68 .87 .81 .81 .71 .68
F06Q2 .50 .50 .51 .52 .52 .58 .69 .67 .66 .65 .59 .59 .60 .55 .50 .50
F06Q3 .47 .47 .49 .48 .48 .54 .59 .58 .58 .56 .58 .62 .62 .61 .60 .58
F06Q4 .53 .53 .53 .57 .62 .63 .63 .60 .60 .63 .63 .64 .60 .60
F07Q1 1.05 .92 .92 .92 .87 .85
F07Q2
F07Q3
fwd12m 1.87 1.86 2.12 2.10 2.14 2.37 2.77 2.69 2.68 2.52 2.82 2.76 2.77 2.72 2.58 2.52
actual 2.11 2.27
diff -12% 22%

1.10

1.00

.90

.80

.70

.60

.50

.40

.30
Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06

F05Q4 F06Q1 F06Q2 F06Q3 F06Q4 F0

 4/1 4/14 4/20 5/2 5/9 5/23 6/1 6/16 7/1 7/14 7/20 8/2 8/16 8/31 9/15 10/1 ###

.50 .50 .50

.57 .57 .54 .52 .45 .44 .44 .44 .44
.54 .44
.60 .60 .65 .66 .64 .63 .59 .55 .55 .55
.55 .56 .56 .56 .57 .57 .57
.84 .85 .83 .83 .80 .79 .85 .88 .89 .89
.89 .89 .90 .90 .91 .90 .90
.89 .89 .86 .86 .83 .82 .80 .81
.79 .78 .76 .76 .76 .77 .77
.72 .71 .74 .74 .74 .75 .75
2.51 2.51 2.91 2.89 2.75 2.72 2.70 2.70 2.68 2.68 2.95 2.94 2.96 2.96 2.98 2.99 2.98

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

1.8

1.6
-06 Jul-06 Oct-06

F06Q3 F06Q4 F07Q1 F07Q2 F07Q3 fwd12m

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

1.8

1.6
 iPod iPod iPod New Switch iPod accs iTMS iPod
iPod unit inst switch iPod CPU life iPod /user /user iPod accs iTMS
Date units grw base base usrs units cycl AUP /year /year rev rev rev
Dec-03 0.7 170% 1.8 0.5 0.6 0.027 1.9 0.357 37.5 29.1 0.256 0.028 0.019
Mar-04 0.8 320% 2.5 0.8 0.7 0.010 2.5 0.345 47.1 37.5 0.264 0.033 0.027
Jun-04 0.9 268% 3.2 1.2 0.7 0.051 2.2 0.325 47.9 42.0 0.249 0.036 0.037
Sep-04 2.0 370% 5.0 2.0 1.8 0.010 2.4 0.296 47.2 41.5 0.537 0.051 0.047
Dec-04 4.6 469% 9.3 5.1 4.2 0.2 2.3 0.274 43.2 38.4 1.211 0.096 0.081
Mar-05 5.3 486% 14.2 8.6 5.0 0.2 2.4 0.236 34.3 36.8 1.014 0.089 0.127
Jun-05 6.2 560% 19.9 12.5 5.7 0.2 2.6 0.214 28.7 31.8 1.103 0.111 0.130
Sep-05 6.5 409% 25.5 16.3 5.6 0.3 2.8 0.202 24.6 27.7 1.212 0.127 0.138
Dec-05 14.0 287% 37.5 26.6 12.1 0.1 2.6 0.195 24.0 26.0 2.906 0.256 0.235
Apr-06 8.5 176% 43.9 32.0 6.4 0.0 2.6 0.197 23.2 23.6 1.714 0.240 0.245
Jul-06 8.1 106% 49.5 37.0 5.6 0.1 2.6 0.197 21.1 22.3 1.497 0.202 0.255
Sep-06 8.0 72% 54.6 41.7 5.1 0.2 2.9 0.200 21.5 22.0 1.619 0.299 0.285
Dec-06 15.3 25% 63.5 50.2 8.9 0.4 2.5 0.200 22.0 23.0 3.157 0.422 0.431
Mar-07 10.9 20% 69.8 55.8 6.3 0.5 2.7 0.200 23.0 22.0 2.189 0.442 0.335
Jun-07 10.0 19% 75.3 60.5 5.5 0.4 2.7 0.200 22.0 23.0 1.875 0.284 0.463
Sep-07 8.8 16% 79.4 63.8 4.1 0.4 2.8 0.200 22.0 23.5 1.783 0.435 0.464
Dec-07 16.9 17% 86.3 70.0 7.0 0.5 2.6 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.487 0.547 0.604
Mar-08 12.1 13% 91.7 74.2 5.4 0.6 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 2.438 0.562 0.466
Jun-08 11.1 11% 96.3 77.6 4.6 0.5 iPod market
2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 2.100 0.400 0.588
Sep-08 9.8 11% 15.0
99.8 80.0 3.5 0.5 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 1.981 0.548 0.586 150
Dec-08 18.9 11% 106.0 84.9 6.2 0.7 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.878 0.656 0.721
12.5 125
Mar-09 13.6 12% 110.9 88.3 4.9 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 2.736 0.668 0.581
Jun-09 12.5 12% 10.0 115.1 90.8 4.2 0.6 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 2.374 0.504 0.702 100
Sep-09 11.0 12% 118.5 92.6 3.4 0.6 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 2.214 0.651 0.699
Dec-09 21.2 12% 124.67.5 97.0 6.1 0.7 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 4.333 0.758 0.833 75
Mar-10 15.4 12% 129.4 99.8 4.9 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.082 0.770 0.692
Jun-10 14.1 12% 133.75.0 101.8 4.2 0.7 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 2.694 0.606 0.813 50
Sep-10 12.3 12% 137.12.5 103.2 3.4 0.7 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 2.481 0.753 0.810 25
Dec-10 23.8 12% 143.5 107.4 6.4 0.8 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 4.851 0.862 0.947
Mar-11 17.3 12% 148.50.0 109.9 5.0 0.9 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.476 0.875 0.807 0
Jun-11 15.9 13% 153.0D J 111.5 D J D 4.5J D J D 0.8J D2.7J 0.200
D J D 22.0
J D J 24.0
D J 3.059
D J D J D 0.929
0.712 J D
Sep-11 13.8 13% 156.7e u112.7 e u e 3.7u e u e 0.8u e2.7u 0.200
e u e 22.0
u e u24.0
e u 2.782
e u e0.861
u e 0.928
u e
Dec-11 26.7 13% 163.6c n116.9 c n c 6.9l c n c0.9n c2.7n 0.200
c n c 22.0
n c n24.0
c n 5.431
c n c0.972
n c 1.067
n c
Mar-12 19.5 13% 168.9 119.2 5.4 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.918 0.987 0.929
Jun-12 18.0 13% 173.8 iPod 120.6
inst 4.9
base 0.9 switch
iPod 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0usrs
New iPod 3.469 Switch
0.826 1.053
CPU
Sep-12 15.5 12% 177.8 121.5 4.0 0.9 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.119 units
base 0.977 1.054
Dec-12 29.9 12% 185.3 125.9 7.5 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 6.078 1.092 1.198
Mar-13 22.0 12% 191.1 128.0 5.8 1.0 2.7Music0.200 $$22.0 24.0 4.410 1.109 1.063
Jun-13 20.3 12% 50 196.5 129.3 5.3 0.9 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.926 0.951 1.1900.500
Sep-13 17.4 12% 200.8 130.1 4.4 0.9 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.492 1.104 1.193
Dec-13 33.5 12% 40 209.2 134.7 8.3 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 6.794 1.223 1.3410.400
Mar-14 24.7 12% 30 215.5 136.7 6.4 1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 4.956 1.243 1.2090.300
Jun-14 22.8 12% 20 221.4 137.9 5.9 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 4.433 1.088 1.3390.200
Sep-14 19.4 12% 10 226.2 138.5 4.8 1.0 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 3.905 1.243 1.3450.100
Dec-14 37.4 12% 235.4 143.4 9.2 1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 7.585 1.367 1.498
0 0.000
Mar-15 27.8 12% 242.4 145.4 7.0 1.2 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 5.559 1.391 1.370
Jun-15 25.6 12% 248.9 D J D J D
146.6 J D
6.5 J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J
1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 4.995 1.239 1.504 D J D
Sep-15 21.7 12% 254.2 e u e147.0
u e u 5.3e u e 1.0
u e u2.7e 0.200
u e u 22.0
e u e 24.0
u e 4.361
u e u e u1.513
1.397 e
Dec-15 41.8 12% 264.3 c n c n c l
152.2 10.1c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n
1.2 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 8.457 1.527 1.672 c n c

iPod AUP accs /user iTMS /user

/year /year
 10 0.100
0 0.000
D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D
e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c
Mar-16 31.1 12% 272.1 154.2 7.7 1.2 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 6.225 1.554 1.548
iPod AUP accs /user iTMS /user
Jun-16 28.7 12% 279.3 155.3 7.2 1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 5.616 1.406 1.686
/year /year
Sep-16 24.2 12% 285.1 155.6 5.8 1.1 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 4.863 1.567 1.698
Dec-16 46.6 12% 296.3 161.1 11.1 1.2 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 9.418 1.702 1.863
Mar-17 34.8 12% 304.8 163.3 8.5 1.3 2.7 0.200 22.0 24.0 6.961 1.734 1.745
 iTMS Mac PC Mac Mac Mac New Mac Mac prfls SW
+accs Mac unit PC CPU inst iPod Market 1y halo to life CPU /usr /usr
rev units grw CPUs grw base inst bs share % Mac cycl AUP /yr /yr
0.047 0.83 0% 38.5 8% 15.2 1.3 2.3% 17.6% 0.1 5.0 1.505 52.0 46.5
0.060 0.75 5% 34.1 4% 15.2 1.7 2.3% 12.1% 0.0 5.0 1.506 55.3 48.2
0.073 0.88 10% 34.7 7% 15.3 2.0 2.3% 15.0% 0.1 5.0 1.509 58.5 51.2
0.098 0.84 9% 34.7 5% 15.4 3.0 2.3% 8.5% 0.0 5.0 1.496 62.2 53.8
0.177 1.05 13% 41.5 8% 15.7 4.2 2.4% 9.7% 0.3 5.0 1.500 65.7 53.4
0.216 1.07 22% 37.5 10% 16.0 5.6 2.6% 10.8% 0.4 5.0 1.461 67.5 56.1
0.241 1.18 28% 38.2 10% 16.4 7.4 2.7% 8.9% 0.4 5.0 1.426 69.3 63.6
0.265 1.24 38% 39.2 13% 16.9 9.1 2.9% 8.5% 0.4 5.1 1.384 69.3 67.1
0.491 1.25 35% 46.1 11% 17.3 10.9 2.9% 5.3% 0.5 5.1 1.348 68.7 72.2
0.485 1.11 25% 40.5 8% 17.6 11.8 2.9% 2.6% 0.3 5.1 1.353 66.2 75.5
0.457 1.33 19% 41.2 8% 18.1 12.5 3.0% 1.4% 0.5 5.1 1.374 62.9 71.9
0.584 1.50 15% 41.2 5% 18.7 12.8 3.1% 0.9% 0.6 5.1 1.385 64.0 72.0
0.853 1.72 19% 48.9 6% 19.5 13.3 3.3% 1.5% 0.8 5.0 1.395 65.0 73.0
0.777 1.70 31% 43.3 7% 20.4 14.0 3.6% 2.5% 0.9 5.1 1.400 65.0 75.0
0.747 1.84 37% 44.5 8% 21.3 14.8 3.8% 2.9% 0.9 5.1 1.400 65.0 80.0
0.899 2.04 41% 44.5 8% 22.3 15.5 4.0% 3.0% 1.0 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
1.151 2.40 41% 52.8 8% 23.7 16.4 4.3% 3.0% 1.4 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
1.028 2.48 40% 46.8 8% 25.1 17.5 4.6% 3.0% 1.5 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
0.988 2.52 40% 48.1 8% 26.5 Mac 4.9%
18.7 market 3.0% 1.4 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
150
1.134 12.5%
2.74 39% 48.1 8% 28.1 19.8 5.2% 3.0% 1.5 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0100
1.377 3.25 38% 57.0 8% 30.0 21.1 5.5% 3.0% 1.9 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
125 10.0%
1.249 3.43 36% 50.5 8% 32.1 22.6 5.9% 3.0% 2.1 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.080
1.205
100 3.35 35% 51.9 8% 34.1 24.3 6.2% 3.0% 2.0 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
1.349 7.5%
3.60 34% 51.9 8% 36.2 25.9 6.5% 3.0% 2.1 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.060
75
1.591 4.26 33% 61.6 8% 38.8 27.6 6.8% 3.0% 2.6 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
1.462 5.0%
4.54 32% 54.6 8% 41.6 29.6 7.2% 3.0% 2.8 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.040
50
1.418 4.34 31% 56.1 8% 44.1 31.9 7.5% 3.0% 2.6 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
1.563
25 2.5%
4.60 30% 56.1 8% 46.8 33.9 7.8% 3.0% 2.7 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.020
1.809 5.42 29% 66.5 8% 50.1 36.1 8.1% 3.0% 3.2 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
01.682 0.0%
5.82 28% 58.9 8% 53.6 38.6 8.5% 3.0% 3.6 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.00
D J D J D 1.641 5.47 27%D J S60.6
M S 8%A S56.8
M S M 41.5
S M S8.8%
M S M3.0% S M S3.2M S5.1M 1.400
S M S65.0M S 85.0
M
e u e u e 1.788 5.76 27%e ue60.5
a e 8%p e 60.2
a e a 44.0
e a e 9.1%
a e a 3.0%e a e3.3a e5.1a 1.400
e a e65.0a e 85.0
a
n c n c 2.039 6.75 26%c np71.8
r p 8%r p 64.1
r p r 46.7
p r p 9.4%
r p r 3.0%p r p3.9r p5.1r 1.400
p r p65.0r p 85.0
r
1.916 7.26 25% 63.6 8% 68.4 49.8 9.8% 3.0% 4.3 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
Switch CPU 1.880 6.77 25%Mac65.4 8% 72.3 Mac53.2
inst base 10.2%
iPod inst bs 3.0% 3.9 5.1 1.400
Mac Market 65.0 % 85.0
1y halo
nits 2.031 7.07 24% 65.4 8% 76.3 56.2 10.5% 3.0%
share 4.0 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
2.290 8.25 23% 77.5 8% 81.0 59.4 10.8% 3.0% 4.7 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
2.172 8.89 23% 68.7 8% 86.1 63.1 Mac
11.2%$$ 3.0% 5.1 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
2.141
0.500 8.23 22% 70.6 8% 90.6
120.0 67.1 11.5% 3.0% 4.6 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0 1.600
2.296 8.55 22% 70.6 8% 95.4 70.8 11.8% 3.0% 4.7 5.2 1.400 65.0 85.0
0.400
2.564 100.0
9.94 21% 83.7 8% 100.8 74.5 12.1% 3.0% 5.5 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0 1.500
0.300 80.021% 74.2 8% 106.8
2.452 10.72 78.8 12.5% 3.0% 5.9 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0 1.400
2.427
0.200 60.020% 76.3 8% 112.1
9.87 83.5 12.8% 3.0% 5.3 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0 1.300
2.588
0.100 10.22
40.020% 76.3 8% 117.6 87.7 13.1% 3.0% 5.5 5.2 1.400 65.0 85.0
1.200
2.866 11.83
20.020% 90.4 8% 123.8 92.0 13.4% 3.0% 6.3 5.2 1.400 65.0 85.0
1.100
0.000
2.762 12.76 19% 80.2 8% 130.7 97.0 13.8% 3.0% 6.8 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
D J D 0.0 1.000
2.744 11.72 19% 82.4 8% 136.8 102.4 14.1% 3.0% 6.2 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
u e u e D J D J D
2.910 12.08 19% 82.4 8% 143.1J D J D J D J D J
107.2 14.4% D J D J D J D J D J D
3.0% 6.3 5.2 1.400 65.0 85.0J D
n c n c 3.198 13.94 18%e u e97.7u e 8%
u e150.3
u e u112.2
e u e14.7%
u e u 3.0%
e u e7.2 u e 5.2u e u e 65.0
1.400 u e 85.0
c n c n c l c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c n c

Mac CPU AUP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr

 0.100 40.0 1.200
0.000 20.0 1.100
D J D 0.0 1.000
u e u e D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D J D
n c n c e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e u e
3.103 c n c86.6
15.02 18% n c 8%
l c158.1
n c n117.8
c n c15.1%
n c n 3.0%
c n c 7.8
n c 5.1
n c1.400
n c 65.0
n c 85.0
3.093 13.77 18% 89.0 8% 165.1 123.9 15.4% 3.0% 7.0 5.2 1.400 65.0 85.0
Mac CPU AUP prfls /usr /yr SW /usr /yr
3.265 14.15 18% 89.0 8% 172.2 129.5 15.7% 3.0% 7.1 5.2 1.400 65.0 85.0
3.565 16.28 17% 105.5 8% 180.3 135.1 16.0% 3.0% 8.1 5.2 1.400 65.0 85.0
3.479 17.54 17% 93.5 8% 189.1 141.5 16.4% 3.0% 8.8 5.1 1.400 65.0 85.0
 Mac Mac
CPU prfls SW Tot
rev rev rev rev Products
1.269 0.222 0.212 2.006 PC iTMS
1.160 0.238 0.187 1.909 iPod mini
1.263 0.219 0.210 2.014
1.231 0.271 0.213 2.350 4G iPod
1.605 0.284 0.213 3.490
1.494 0.280 0.239 3.243 iPod shuffle
1.565 0.266 0.345 3.520
1.611 0.296 0.294 3.678 iPod nano
1.724 0.303 0.325 5.749 5G iPod/MacTV
1.572 0.264 0.324 4.359 Intel Macs/Hi-Fi
1.866 0.236 0.314 4.370
2.030 0.345 0.329 4.9
2.431 0.357 0.384 7.2
2.419 0.309 0.413 6.1
2.583 0.288 0.474 6.0
2.786 0.404 0.505 6.4
3.384 0.424 0.471 8.9
3.513 0.386 0.513 7.9
3.536 0.373 0.585 7.6
1003.772 0.497 0.628 8.0
4.571 0.527 0.606 11.0
80 4.842 0.500 0.662 10.0
4.704 0.496 0.746 9.5
60 4.970 0.629 0.800 10.0
5.979 0.669 0.792 13.4
40 6.398 0.653 0.863 12.5
6.080 0.659 0.959 11.8
20 6.374 0.802 1.026 12.2
7.610 0.853 1.032 16.2
0 8.185 0.849 1.119 15.3
S M S M 7.670 0.865 1.229 14.5
e a e a 7.990 1.019 1.309 14.9
p r p r 9.470 1.081 1.330 19.4
10.212 1.089 1.433 18.6
halo % 9.482 1.116 1.557 17.5
9.829 1.281 1.652 17.9
11.574 1.355 1.689 23.0
12.494 1.376 1.808 22.3
11.530 1.415 1.948 21.0
1.600
11.904 1.591 2.057 21.3
1.500
13.938 1.678 2.111 27.1
1.400
15.050 1.712 2.248 26.4
1.300
13.832 1.763 2.403 24.9
14.234 1.952 2.529 25.2
1.200
16.582 2.052 2.600 31.7
1.100
17.902 2.101 2.756 31.1
1.000
16.410 2.165 2.929 29.2
J D 16.840 2.367 3.072 29.5
u e 19.531 2.482 3.162 36.8
n c
 1.200
1.100
1.000
J D
u e
n c 21.074 2.546 3.338 36.3
19.285 2.624 3.529 34.1
19.744 2.840 3.691 34.4
22.809 2.970 3.801 42.6
24.595 3.051 3.998 42.1
Comments

All unit numbers in millions

$ revenue in billions
$ unit prices in thousands

Assumptions/definitions
Halo effect starts in F04 CPUs from F03 PC iPods
Switch CPU units = CPUs beyond industry growth
Halo% = ttm switch CPU units / iPod switch base

iPod installed base / Replacement cycles:

Installed base increase (new usrs) = iPods sold - iPods replaced
iPods replaced = previous installed base / avg life cycle
2 year initial life cycle

iPod switch base:

1st year (03) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/4 CPU share
2nd year (04) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 1/2 CPU share
3rd year (05) new iPod users PC/Mac share is 3/4 CPU share
Beyond 3rd year (>05) new iPod users PC/Mac share = CPU share

iPod future sales:

41 million iPod units in 06
Beyond 12m iPod unit growth based on CPU unit growth

Unit prices / Revenues:

Other music revenue (iTMS, peripherals) attached to iPod units
Other revenue (software, peripherals) attached to CPU units
$210 future iPod unit price (iPod+peripherals+iTMS)
$1750 future CPU unit price (CPU+peripherals+software)

CPU industry / Market share:

2% pre-halo CPU market share
8% long term industry CPU growth