JPM Guide To The Markets Europe 1704580390a

Global Market Insights Strategy team GTM Europe 2
Americas Europe Asia
Gabriela Santos Dr. David Kelly, CFA Karen Ward Tai Hui
New York New York London Hong Kong
Marcella Chow
Hugh Gimber, CFA Hong Kong
London
Vincent Juvyns Shogo Maekawa
Meera Pandit, CFA Jack Manley Tokyo
New York New York Luxembourg
Ian Hui
Hong Kong
Aaron Hussein
London
Tilmann Galler, CFA
Frankfurt
Adrian Tong
Jordan Jackson Stephanie Aliaga Hong Kong Chaoping Zhu, CFA
New York New York Shanghai
Max McKechnie
London Maria Paola Toschi
Milan
Jennifer Qiu
Hong Kong Arthur Jiang
Nimish Vyas Mary Park Durham Shanghai
New York New York Natasha May
London Elena Domecq
Madrid
Raisah Rasid
Singapore
Marina Valentini
São Paulo
Agnes Lin
Brandon Hall Erin Erdoes Taipei Kerry Craig, CFA
New York New York Zara Nokes Lucia Gutierrez Mellado Sahil Gauba Melbourne
London Madrid Mumbai
2
Page reference GTM Europe 3
Global economy Equities ESG

4. Global growth 44. World equity valuations 79. Ecological capacity and consumer concerns
5. Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for 45. Regional equity valuations 80. Carbon pricing
manufacturing 46. Regional earnings expectations and profit margins 81. Global CO2 emissions by country
6. Global inflation 47. Global equity market correlations with Treasury yields 82. Energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions by sector
7. Global inflationary pressures 48. Global equity sector weights 83. Investment in climate change mitigation and
8. Global monetary policy 49. Global equity income adaptation
9. Global fiscal policy 50. Equity market factors 84. Electric vehicle sales and mineral content
10. Global government debt 51. US earnings 85. Global warming and energy consumption
11. Global consumer balance sheets 52. US equity valuations 86. Droughts and food prices
12. US dollar 53. US valuations and subsequent returns 87. ESG and capital markets
13. Global demographics 54. US bull and bear markets
14. US GDP and business surveys 55. Europe earnings and buyback yields Investing principles
15. US Economic Monitor 56. Europe equity valuations
16. US business and residential investment 57. Europe large, mid and small capitalisation equities 88. Life expectancy
17. US consumer 58. UK earnings 89. The effect of compounding
18. US labour market 59. Japan equity market and currency 90. Cash investments
19. US inflation 60. Emerging market equity valuations 91. Long-term asset returns
20. US Federal Reserve policy 61. China equity price-to-book ratio and drawdowns 92. Annual returns and intra-year declines
21. US interest rate sensitivity 62. Equity focus: Navigating Tech concentration 93. Asset class risk-return trade-off
22. US housing activity and inventories 63. World stock market returns 94. S&P 500 and fund flows
23. US politics 95. 25% drawdowns and subsequent returns
24. US focus: Fiscal challenges Fixed income 96. US asset returns by holding period
25. Eurozone GDP and business surveys 97. Asset class returns (EUR)
26. Eurozone Economic Monitor 64. Fixed income yields
27. Eurozone business investment and credit conditions 65. Global government bond yields
28. Eurozone consumer 66. US yield curve
29. Eurozone labour market 67. US Treasury diversification potential
30. Eurozone unemployment 68. Global fixed income spreads
31. Eurozone inflation 69. Corporate refinancing
32. European Central Bank policy 70. High yield bonds
33. Eurozone focus: Economic surprises and Recovery 71. Equity and bond returns after Fed hiking cycles
Fund 72. Fixed income focus: Bond performance beyond peak
34. UK GDP and business surveys rates
35. UK labour market 73. Global fixed income returns
36. UK inflation
37. UK focus: Mortgage dynamics Other assets
38. Japan GDP and inflation
39. China GDP and business surveys 74. Oil
40. China inflation and credit dynamics 75. Commodities
41. China fixed asset investment and household wealth 76. Volatility and alternative investments
42. Emerging market structural dynamics 77. Inflation protection and alternative investments
43. EM focus: Trade dynamics and real rates 78. Asset return expectations
3
Global growth GTM Europe 4
Consensus forecasts for real GDP growth Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
Global economy
% change year on year Index level

6 70
65
5
60
4
55
3 50
45
2
40
1
35
0 30
UK Eurozone Japan US China '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
2023 2024 US Eurozone UK
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forecasts are from Bloomberg contributor composite. (Right) S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset
Management. A PMI score of 50 indicates that economic activity is neither expanding nor contracting, above 50 indicates expansion.
4 Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing GTM Europe 5
Global manufacturing PMI

Global economy
Index level
2023
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Nov Dec
Eurozone 44,2 44,2
France 42,9 42,0
Germany 42,6 43,1

Eurozone
Italy 44,4 -
Spain 46,3 -
Greece 50,9 -
Ireland 50,0 48,9
Sweden 49,0 48,8

Developed
Switzerland 42,1 -
UK 47,2 46,4
US 49,4 48,2
Japan 48,3 47,7
China 50,7 50,8
Indonesia 51,7 52,2
Korea 50,0 49,9

Emerging
Taiwan 48,3 47,1
India 56,0 -
Brazil 49,4 -
Mexico 52,5 -
South Africa 48,2 -
Source: S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. A score of 50 indicates that economic activity is neither expanding nor contracting, above 50 indicates
expansion. The heatmap colours range from red to yellow to green, where red is below 50, yellow is at 50 and green is above 50. Quarterly averages are shown,
5 except the two most recent monthly data points. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global inflation GTM Europe 6
Headline inflation
Global economy
% change year on year

2021 2022 2023
May
May
Sep
Aug
Sep
Aug
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
Feb
Feb
Mar
Mar
Jan
Jun
Jan
Jun
Apr
Apr
Oct
Oct
Jul
Jul
Eurozone 5,0 5,1 5,9 7,4 7,4 8,1 8,6 8,9 9,1 9,9 10,6 10,1 9,2 8,6 8,5 6,9 7,0 6,1 5,5 5,3 5,2 4,3 2,9 2,4
France 3,4 3,3 4,2 5,1 5,4 5,8 6,5 6,8 6,6 6,2 7,1 7,1 6,7 7,0 7,3 6,7 6,9 6,0 5,3 5,1 5,7 5,7 4,5 3,9
Eurozone
Germany 5,7 5,1 5,5 7,6 7,8 8,7 8,2 8,5 8,8 10,9 11,6 11,3 9,6 9,2 9,3 7,8 7,6 6,3 6,8 6,5 6,4 4,3 3,0 2,3
Italy 4,2 5,1 6,2 6,8 6,3 7,3 8,5 8,4 9,1 9,4 12,6 12,6 12,3 10,7 9,8 8,1 8,6 8,0 6,7 6,3 5,5 5,6 1,8 0,6
Spain 6,6 6,2 7,6 9,8 8,3 8,5 10,0 10,7 10,5 9,0 7,3 6,7 5,5 5,9 6,0 3,1 3,8 2,9 1,6 2,1 2,4 3,3 3,5 3,3
Greece 4,4 5,5 6,3 8,0 9,1 10,5 11,6 11,3 11,2 12,1 9,5 8,8 7,6 7,3 6,5 5,4 4,5 4,1 2,8 3,5 3,5 2,4 3,8 2,9
Ireland 5,7 5,0 5,7 6,9 7,3 8,3 9,6 9,6 9,0 8,6 9,4 9,0 8,2 7,5 8,1 7,0 6,3 5,4 4,8 4,6 4,9 5,0 3,6 2,5
Sweden 4,5 3,9 4,4 6,3 6,6 7,5 8,9 8,3 9,5 10,3 9,8 10,1 10,8 9,6 9,7 8,1 7,7 6,7 6,3 6,3 4,5 3,7 4,0 3,3
Developed
Switzerland 1,3 1,4 1,9 2,2 2,3 2,7 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,2 2,9 2,9 2,7 3,2 3,2 2,7 2,6 2,2 1,8 2,1 1,9 2,0 2,0 1,6
UK 5,4 5,5 6,2 7,0 9,0 9,1 9,4 10,1 9,9 10,1 11,1 10,7 10,5 10,1 10,4 10,1 8,7 8,7 7,9 6,8 6,7 6,7 4,6 3,9
US 7,0 7,5 7,9 8,5 8,3 8,6 9,1 8,5 8,3 8,2 7,7 7,1 6,5 6,4 6,0 5,0 4,9 4,0 3,0 3,2 3,7 3,7 3,2 3,1
Japan 0,8 0,5 0,9 1,2 2,5 2,5 2,4 2,6 3,0 3,0 3,7 3,8 4,0 4,3 3,3 3,2 3,5 3,2 3,3 3,3 3,2 3,0 3,3 2,8
China 1,5 0,9 0,9 1,5 2,1 2,1 2,5 2,7 2,5 2,8 2,1 1,6 1,8 2,1 1,0 0,7 0,1 0,2 0,0 -0,3 0,1 0,0 -0,2 -0,5
Indonesia 1,9 2,2 2,1 2,6 3,5 3,6 4,3 4,9 4,7 6,0 5,7 5,4 5,5 5,3 5,5 5,0 4,3 4,0 3,5 3,1 3,3 2,3 2,6 2,9
Korea 3,7 3,6 3,7 4,1 4,8 5,4 6,0 6,3 5,7 5,6 5,7 5,0 5,0 5,2 4,8 4,2 3,7 3,3 2,7 2,3 3,4 3,7 3,8 3,3
Emerging
Taiwan 2,6 2,8 2,3 3,3 3,4 3,4 3,6 3,4 2,7 2,8 2,7 2,4 2,7 3,1 2,4 2,4 2,3 2,0 1,8 1,9 2,5 2,9 3,0 2,9
India 5,7 6,0 6,1 7,0 7,8 7,0 7,0 6,7 7,0 7,4 6,8 5,9 5,7 6,5 6,4 5,7 4,7 4,3 4,9 7,4 6,8 5,0 4,9 5,6
Brazil 10,1 10,4 10,5 11,3 12,1 11,7 11,9 10,1 8,7 7,2 6,5 5,9 5,8 5,8 5,6 4,7 4,2 3,9 3,2 4,0 4,6 5,2 4,8 4,7
Mexico 7,4 7,1 7,3 7,5 7,7 7,7 8,0 8,2 8,7 8,7 8,4 7,8 7,8 7,9 7,6 6,8 6,3 5,8 5,1 4,8 4,6 4,5 4,3 4,3
South Africa 5,9 5,7 5,7 5,9 5,9 6,5 7,4 7,8 7,6 7,5 7,6 7,4 7,2 6,9 7,0 7,1 6,8 6,3 5,4 4,7 4,8 5,4 5,9 5,5
Source: Bank of Mexico, DGBAS, ECB, Federal Reserve, IBGE, India Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs &
Communication, Korean National Statistical Office, LSEG Datastream, National Bureau of Statistics of China, ONS, Riksbank, Statistics Indonesia, Statistics South
Africa, Swiss National Bank, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Eurozone countries use HICP inflation, all other countries use CPI inflation. Heatmap colours are
based on the respective central bank target inflation rates. Blue is below target, white is at target and red is above target. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
6 Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global inflationary pressures GTM Europe 7
Core inflation Market-based inflation expectations

Global economy
% change year on year %, 5y5y inflation swap

8 4,5
4,0
7
3,5
6
3,0
5
2,5
4
2,0
3
1,5
2
1,0
1 0,5
0 0,0
'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
US Eurozone UK US Eurozone UK
Source: (Left) BLS, Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, ONS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Core inflation excludes food and energy in the US, and food, energy,
alcohol and tobacco in the eurozone and the UK. (Right) Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 5y5y inflation swaps represent the market’s expectation of
five-year average inflation, starting in five years’ time. UK inflation swaps use RPI rather than CPI as the reference point, which partly explains why the UK 5y5y is
higher than other regions. Strong demand for index-linked Gilts from defined benefit UK pension funds also drives the UK 5y5y higher. Past performance is not a
7 reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global monetary policy GTM Europe 8
Market expectations for central bank policy rates Global central bank balance sheets
Global economy
% USD trillions Forecast

6 30
5
25
4
20
15
2
10
1
0 5
-1
+0 +1 +2 +3 0
Years '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
US Eurozone UK Japan Switzerland
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Expectations are calculated using OIS forwards. (Right) BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed, LSEG Datastream,
SNB, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Global central bank balance sheet is the sum of the balance sheets of the BoE, BoJ, ECB, Fed and SNB. Forecast from
J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Global fiscal policy GTM Europe 9
Public sector investment Public sector budget balance

Global economy
% change year on year, three-year moving average % of nominal GDP

20 5
Forecast
15
0
10
-5
-10
0
-15
-5
-10 -20
'01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22 '25 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Source: (Left) Deutsche Bundesbank, INE, INSEE, ISTAT, LSEG Datastream, OECD, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Chart shows a smoothed measure of
government gross fixed capital formation. Forecast is OECD. Eurozone is GDP-weighted average of France, Germany, Italy and Spain. (Right) Bloomberg,
9 Eurostat, ONS, US Treasury, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global government debt GTM Europe 10
Government debt Government interest payments

Global economy
% of nominal GDP % of nominal GDP

140 5,0
Forecast Forecast
4,5
120
4,0
100 3,5
3,0
80
2,5
60
2,0
40 1,5
1,0
20
0,5
0 0,0
'00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '25
Source: (Left) Bank for International Settlements, Eurostat, IMF, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Debt refers to gross debt at face value.
Dotted lines represent the IMF forecasts for government debt to GDP in 2023 and 2024. (Right) LSEG Datastream, OECD, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2023
is OECD forecast. Eurozone refers to 17 OECD countries in the eurozone, which excludes Croatia, Cyprus and Malta. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Global consumer balance sheets GTM Europe 11
Nominal house prices Household debt

Global economy
Index level, rebased to 100 in 2015 % of nominal GDP

200 110
Recession
180
100
160
90
140
80
120
100 70
80
60
60
50
40
40
20
0 30
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
US Germany UK Sweden Spain US UK France Spain
France Italy
Source: (Left) OECD, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) BEA, Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, ONS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
US dollar GTM Europe 12
US dollar and interest rate differentials

Global economy
Index level (LHS); % points (RHS)

135 3,5
130 3,0
125 2,5
120 2,0
115 1,5
110 1,0
105 0,5
100 0,0
95 -0,5
90 -1,0
'96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
USD broad real effective exchange rate US minus DM 10-year government bond yield
Source: J.P. Morgan Securities Research, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. DM is developed markets and the yield is calculated as a GDP-
weighted average of the 10-year government bond yields of Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland and the UK. Past performance is not a
Global demographics GTM Europe 13
Population split by age: US Population split by age: eurozone

Global economy
Millions of people Millions of people

400 400
300 300
200 200
Forecast Forecast
100 100
0 0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Under 15 15-64 65+ Under 15 15-64 65+
Population split by age: UK Population split by age: China

Millions of people Millions of people
80 1.600
60 1.200
40 800
Forecast Forecast
20 400
0 0
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Under 15 15-64 65+ Under 15 15-64 65+
Source: (All charts) LSEG Datastream, United Nations, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forecast is United Nations. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
US GDP and business surveys GTM Europe 14
Contribution to US real GDP growth US Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI)

Global economy

15 75
70
10 65
60
5 55
50
0 45
40
-5 35
30
-10 25
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Real GDP Consumption Government Investment Manufacturing Services
Net exports Change in inventories
Source: (All charts) BEA, Bloomberg, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. A PMI score of 50 indicates that economic activity is
14 neither expanding nor contracting, above 50 indicates expansion. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US Economic Monitor GTM Europe 15
US economic indicators
Key:
Global economy
Percentile rank relative to historic data since 1990

Elevated
Broad indicators Consumer and services Manufacturing Labour market recession risk
100
Lower
90 recession risk
80
70
6 months
60 prior
50 Latest
40
30
20
10 Higher
recession risk
0
Conference Conference Consumer ISM non- ISM Non-farm
Board Leading Board Leading confidence: manufacturing manufacturing: payrolls
Economic Credit Index Present New orders
Index situation
Source: BLS, Conference Board, ISM, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Elevated recession risk flags are shown when the underlying indicator
15 is at a level consistent with the onset of any of the three recessions prior to the Covid-19 recession. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US business and residential investment GTM Europe 16
US real business investment and future capex intentions US residential and business investment
Global economy
% change year on year (LHS); index level (RHS) % of nominal GDP

15 40 16 8
Recession
10 30
15 7
5 20
14 6
0 10
13 5
-5 0 Average
12 4
-10 -10
11 3
-15 -20
-20 -30 10 2
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20
Business investment Future capex intentions Business investment Residential investment
Source: (Left) BEA, Dallas Fed, Kansas City Fed, LSEG Datastream, New York Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Future
capex intentions is an equally weighted average of the five aforementioned Fed districts’ capex intentions measures, shown as a three-month moving average.
(Right) BEA, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Periods of recession are defined using US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
16 business cycle dates. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US consumer GTM Europe 17
US consumer confidence US nominal GDP composition

Global economy
Index level USD trillions, latest quarter

160 120 30
Recession 4%
27
140 110 14%
24
120 100
21 17%
100 90 18
15
80 80
12
60 70 9 68%
6
40 60
3
20 50
0
-3%
0 40 -3
'88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20 '24
Conference Board University of Michigan Consumption Government Non-residential investment
Residential investment Net exports
Source: (Left) Conference Board, LSEG Datastream, University of Michigan, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The consumer confidence indices can diverge due
to different emphasis in the surveys. The University of Michigan survey places a stronger weight on personal finances and buying conditions while the Conference
Board index emphasises employment. Periods of recession are defined using US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dates.(Right)
17 BEA, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US labour market GTM Europe 18
US unemployment and wage growth

Global economy
%, wage growth is year on year

16
Recession
14
12
10
0
'72 '76 '80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20 '24
Unemployment Wage growth
Source: BLS, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Wage growth is average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees.
Periods of recession are defined using US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dates. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
US inflation GTM Europe 19
US headline inflation breakdown US goods and services inflation

Global economy
% change year on year % change year on year

10 14
9
12
8
7 10
6
8
5
6
4
3 4
2
2
1
0 0
-1
-2
-2
-3 -4
May '22 Aug '22 Nov '22 Feb '23 May '23 Aug '23 Nov '23 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20
Private shelter Restaurants, hotels and transport Services Non-food, non-energy goods
Food at home Autos Energy Other Total
19 Source: (All charts) BLS, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US Federal Reserve policy GTM Europe 20
Federal Reserve policy rate expectations

Global economy
%
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
Recession
2
Long-run
projection
0
'71 '75 '79 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 '23 '27
Federal funds rate Federal Reserve median expectations Market expectations on 31 Dec 2023 (mean)
Source: Bloomberg, BLS, Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Market expectations are calculated using OIS forwards. The long-run projection
represents the committee’s median assessment of where the federal funds rate would be expected to converge to under the appropriate monetary policy and in
the absence of further shocks to the economy. Periods of recession are defined using US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dates.
20 Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US interest rate sensitivity GTM Europe 21
US mortgage refinancing and 30-year mortgage rate US personal interest payments

Global economy
Index level (LHS); % (RHS) USD billions

8.000 8 700
7.000 7
600
6.000 6
500
5.000 5
400
4.000 4
300
3.000 3
200
2.000 2
100
1.000 1
0 0 0
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Refinancing applications 30-year fixed mortgage rate Total ex-mortgages Mortgages
Source: (Left) Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, LSEG Datastream, Mortgage Bankers Association of America, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right)
21 LSEG Datastream, Mortgage Bankers Association of America, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US housing activity and inventories GTM Europe 22
US home sales US housing inventories

Global economy
Millions, seasonally adjusted Thousands, seasonally adjusted

9 4.500
8 4.000
7 3.500
6 3.000
5 2.500
4 2.000
3 1.500
2 1.000
1 500
0 0
'07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '83 '87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 '23
Existing home sales New home sales
Source: (All charts) LSEG Datastream, National Association of Realtors, US Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Housing inventories include new
22 and existing single-family homes for sale. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US politics GTM Europe 23
Real GDP
Global economy

12
-4
'47 '52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12 '17 '22
Republican Democrat Divided government
S&P 500 returns

60
40
20
0
-20
-40
-60
'47 '52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12 '17 '22
Republican Democrat Divided government
Source: (All charts) BEA, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future
23 results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US focus: Fiscal challenges GTM Europe 24
US fiscal deficit and unemployment rate US government debt issuance and Fed purchases
Global economy
% of nominal GDP (LHS); % (RHS) USD trillions

3 2 5
Forecast
0 4
4
-3 6
3
-6 8
-9 10
1
-12 12
Unemployment
increasing
0
-15 14
-18 16 -1
'90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
Fiscal deficit Unemployment Issuance Federal Reserve purchases
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) CBO, US Treasury, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Eurozone GDP and business surveys GTM Europe 25
Contribution to eurozone real GDP growth Eurozone Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI)
Global economy

16 65
12
60
55
4
0 50
-4
45
-8
40
-12
-16 35
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Source: (All charts) Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. A PMI score of 50 indicates that economic activity is neither
25 expanding nor contracting, above 50 indicates expansion. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Eurozone Economic Monitor GTM Europe 26
Eurozone economic indicators

Key:
Global economy
Percentile rank relative to historic data since 1999

Elevated
Financial conditions Consumer and services Manufacturing Labour market recession risk
100
Lower
90 recession risk
80
70
6 months
60 prior
50 Latest
40
30
20
10 Higher
recession risk
0
Bloomberg Consumer Services PMI: Manufacturing Unemployment
financial confidence Business PMI: New
conditions expectations orders
Source: Bloomberg, European Commission, Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Elevated recession risk flags are shown
when the underlying indicator is at a level consistent with eurozone recessions prior to the Covid-19 recession. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Eurozone business investment and credit conditions GTM Europe 27
Eurozone real investment and investment confidence Eurozone credit conditions

Global economy
% change year on year (LHS); index level (RHS) % of banks tightening credit standards
25 40 70
Recession
20 30 60
15 20 50
Lending standards
tightening
10 10 40
5 0 30
0 -10 20
-5 -20 10
-10 -30 0
-15 -40 -10
-20 -50 -20

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
Non-residential Investment goods industry Corporates Consumers
investment confidence
Source: (Left) Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Non-residential investment is in real terms and includes both public and private
investment. (Right) European Central Bank, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data is from the Euro Area Bank Lending Survey.
Eurozone consumer GTM Europe 28
Eurozone consumer confidence Accumulated excess savings

Global economy
Index level % of 2019 GDP, relative to pre-pandemic savings rates

0 16
14
-5
12
-10
10
-15 8
6
-20
4
Recession
-25
2
-30 0
'03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
US Eurozone UK
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, European Commission, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) BEA, Eurostat, LSEG Datastream,
ONS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Excess savings calculated relative to savings rates in the fourth quarter of 2019. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Eurozone labour market GTM Europe 29
Eurozone unemployment and wage growth Real wage growth

Global economy
%, wage growth is year on year % change year on year

13 5,4 4
3
12 4,7 Forecast
2
11 4,0 1
0
10 3,3
-1
9 2,6
-2
8 1,9 -3
-4
7 1,2
-5
6 0,5 -6
'98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '25
Unemployment Negotiated wage growth US ECI Eurozone compensation per employee
Source: (Left) European Central Bank, Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Wage growth is based on negotiated wages. (Right) BLS,
CBO, European Central Bank, European Commission, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. US data is the Employment Cost Index, with forecasts
from the CBO. Eurozone data is compensation per employee, with forecasts from the European Commission. The eurozone data is smoothed over 2020 and 2021
29 to remove distortions related to the pandemic. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Eurozone unemployment GTM Europe 30
France, Germany, Italy and Spain unemployment rates

Global economy
%
30
25
20
15
10
0
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
Spain Italy France Germany
30 Source: Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Eurozone inflation GTM Europe 31
Eurozone headline inflation breakdown Eurozone headline and core inflation

Global economy

11 11
10 10
9 9
8 8
7 7
6 6
5 5
Headline inflation
4 4
target
3 3
2 2
1 1
0 0
-1 -1
-2 -2
Jan '21 Jul '21 Jan '22 Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Core services Core goods Food, alcohol, tobacco Core inflation Headline inflation
Energy Total
Source: (All charts) Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Core inflation is defined as headline inflation less energy, food, alcohol and
31 tobacco. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
European Central Bank policy GTM Europe 32
European Central Bank policy rate expectations European 10-year government bond spreads over Germany
Global economy
% % point spread
5 7
6
4
Recession
5
3
4
2
1
2
0
1
-1 0
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 '26 '28 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
ECB deposit rate Market expectations on 31 Dec 2023 (mean) Italy Spain France
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, European Central Bank, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Market expectations are calculated using OIS forwards. (Right) LSEG
Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Eurozone focus: Economic surprises and Recovery Fund GTM Europe 33
Citigroup economic surprise indices EU Recovery Fund grants

Global economy
Index level EUR billions

150 140
Economic indicators
Forecast
coming in above
expectations 120
100
100
50
80
60
-50
40
-100
20
-150 0
Jan '23 Apr '23 Jul '23 Oct '23 Jan '24 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
US Eurozone Initial planned disbursement Actual/forecast disbursement
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, Citi, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) European Commission, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The grants disbursed in 2024-26
33 are based on J.P. Morgan Asset Management estimates. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
UK GDP and business surveys GTM Europe 34
Contribution to UK real GDP growth UK Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI)

Global economy

30 70
65
20
60
10
55
0 50
45
-10
40
-20
35
-30 30
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Source: (All charts) LSEG Datastream, ONS, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. A PMI score of 50 indicates that economic activity is neither
34 expanding nor contracting, above 50 indicates expansion. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
UK labour market GTM Europe 35
UK unemployment rate and wage growth Labour force participation rates

Global economy
%, wage growth is year on year Index level, rebased to 100 at pre-pandemic peak
12 12 102
101
9 8
100
99
6 4
98
97
3 0
96
0 -4 95
'85 '89 '93 '97 '01 '05 '09 '13 '17 '21 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Unemployment Wage growth US Eurozone UK
Source: (Left) LSEG Datastream, ONS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Wage growth is a three-month moving average of average weekly earnings for the whole
economy, including bonuses and arrears. (Right) Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, OECD, ONS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Participation rates are for people
35 between the ages of 16-64 for the US and UK, and 15-64 for the eurozone. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
UK inflation GTM Europe 36
UK headline inflation breakdown UK goods and services inflation

Global economy

12 14
11
12
10
9 10
8 8
7
6
6
5 4
4
2
3
2 0
1 -2
0
-4
-1
-2 -6
Jan '21 Jul '21 Jan '22 Jul '22 Jan '23 Jul '23 '89 '94 '99 '04 '09 '14 '19 '24
Core services Core goods Food, alcohol, tobacco Services Non-energy industrial goods
Electricity & gas Liquid fuels Total
36 Source: (All charts) LSEG Datastream, ONS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
UK focus: Mortgage dynamics GTM Europe 37
UK mortgages exposed to higher rates UK mortgage approvals

Global economy
% of mortgage stock, cumulative % of outstanding mortgage debt Thousands, seasonally adjusted

100 140
Roll off of 2022 mortgage

90
debt onto new mortgage
rates 120
80
70 100
60
80
50
60
40
30 40
20
20
10
0 0
'22 '23 '24 '25 '26 '27 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
Floating rate Fixed, 2 years or less Fixed, 3-4 years
Fixed, 5 years Cumulative % of outstanding mortgage debt
Source: (Left) Bank of England, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Mortgages exposed to higher rates are based on internal J.P. Morgan Asset Management
calculations and estimates. The first bar shows the proportion of UK mortgage debt as of 4Q 2022 that is either floating rate or with historical fixed rate
agreements. The subsequent bars show the cumulative proportion of this debt that will be exposed to higher interest rates over time. (Right) Bank of England,
37 LSEG Datastream, J.P, Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Japan GDP and inflation GTM Europe 38
Japan real GDP and manufacturing PMI Japan inflation

Global economy
Index level (LHS); % change year on year (RHS) % change year on year
80 12 5
4
70 8
60 4
2
50 0 1
0
40 -4
-1
30 -8
-2
20 -12 -3
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
Manufacturing PMI Real GDP Core inflation Headline inflation
Source: (Left) Japan Cabinet Office, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. A score of 50 indicates that economic activity is neither
expanding nor contracting, above 50 indicates expansion. (Right) Japan Statistics Bureau, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Core inflation is
38 defined as excluding fresh food and energy, as preferred by the Bank of Japan. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
China GDP and business surveys GTM Europe 39
Contribution to China real GDP growth China Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs
Global economy

16 60
14
55
12
10 50
8
45
40
4
2 35
0
30
-2
-4 25
'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
GDP growth Investment Manufacturing Services
Source: (Left) LSEG Datastream, National Bureau of Statistics of China, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
For the PMI indices, a score of 50 indicates that economic activity is neither expanding nor contracting, above 50 indicates expansion.
China inflation and credit dynamics GTM Europe 40
China inflation China credit growth and equity performance

Global economy
% change year on year % of nominal GDP (LHS); % change year on year, total return (RHS)
15 36 100
34 80
10
32 60
30 40
5
28 20
0
26 0
24 -20
-5
22 -40
-10 20 -60
'08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Producer price inflation Headline inflation Core inflation Credit growth MSCI China
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Core inflation excludes food and energy. (Right) Bloomberg, MSCI, People’s Bank
of China, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Credit growth is the 12-month change in the credit stock to the real economy as a percent of nominal GDP. MSCI
China returns shown in USD. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
China fixed asset investment and household wealth GTM Europe 41
China fixed asset investment by sector Composition of household assets

Global economy
% change year on year % of total assets

40 100
90
30
80
20
70
10
60
0 50
40
-10
30
-20
20
-30
10
-40 0
'13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 China Eurozone UK US
Infrastructure Manufacturing Real estate Property Cash and deposits Equity & mutual fund
Pension & insurance Other assets
Source: (Left) LSEG Datastream, National Bureau of Statistics of China, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) CEIC, European Central Bank, Federal Reserve,
Goldman Sachs Investment Research, LSEG Datastream, NFID, Wind, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data is for 2022 except the UK, which is 2021 due to
41 data availability. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Emerging market structural dynamics GTM Europe 42
Urbanisation, real GDP per capita and population size Share of global real GDP
Global economy
% of population and USD, bubble size is population %

80.000 35
70.000
30
USA
60.000 AUS
NLD 25
GBR
50.000
GDP per capita
CAN
DEU 20
40.000 HKG
FRA
JPN
ITA KOR
30.000 15
ESP
20.000 TUR SAU

10
CHN ARG
10.000 RUS BRA
THA ZAF MEX
5
IND IDN
0
00 20 40 60 80 100
0
-10.000 Urbanisation rate '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15 '20
Developed markets Emerging markets US Eurozone Japan India China
Source: (Left) World Bank, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Urbanisation rate refers to the proportion of the total population living within an urban area defined by
national statistical offices. Countries are labelled using three-letter International Organisation of Standardisation country codes. (Right) LSEG Datastream, World
42 Bank, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
EM focus: Trade dynamics and real rates GTM Europe 43
Share of US imports Real interest rates

Global economy
% of total goods and services imports %

25 8
6
20
15
2
10 0
-2
5
-4
0
'97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
China Mexico Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan ASEAN 5 DM EM
Source: (Left) LSEG Datastream, US Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) Banco Central Brasil, Banco de Mexico, Bank Indonesia, BLS,
BoE, BoJ, ECB, Eurostat, Federal Reserve, IBGE, India Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation, INEGI, Japan Ministry of Internal Affairs &
Communication, LSEG Datastream, National Bureau of Statistics of China, ONS, People’s Bank of China, Reserve Bank of India, Statistics Indonesia, J.P.
Morgan Asset Management. Real rates are calculated by deducting the headline inflation rate from the policy rate. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
World equity valuations GTM Europe 44
MSCI World forward P/E ratio Equity and credit yields

x, multiple % yield
28 12
26
10
Equities
24
22
8
20
18 6
Average: 16,3x
16
4
14
31 Dec 2023:
17,4x
12
2
10
8 0
'90 '94 '98 '02 '06 '10 '14 '18 '22 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
DM equity earnings yield Global BBB credit yield
Source: (Left) IBES, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forward P/E ratio is price to 12-month forward earnings, calculated using IBES
earnings estimates. (Right) BofA, IBES, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Developed market equities: MSCI World, Global BBB credit:
BofA Global BBB Corporate Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Regional equity valuations GTM Europe 45
Global forward P/E ratios Relative equity valuations

x, multiple %, relative discount/premium based on 12-month forward P/E ratios
40 10
35
0
Equities
Discount widening
30 vs. the US market
-10
25
-20
20
-30
15
10 -40
5
-50
0
World US Europe UK EM China -60
ex-UK '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Range since 1990 Average since 1990 Current China vs. US Europe ex-UK vs. US UK vs. US
Source: (Left) FTSE, IBES, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. MSCI indices are used for World, Europe ex-UK, EM and
China. UK is FTSE All-Share and US is S&P 500. Earnings data is based on 12-month forward estimates. (Right) FTSE, IBES, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, S&P
Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. US: S&P 500; Europe ex-UK: MSCI Europe ex-UK; UK: FTSE All-Share; China: MSCI China. Valuation is price to 12-
45 month forward earnings. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Regional earnings expectations and profit margins GTM Europe 46
Consensus estimates for global earnings per share growth Profit margins
% change year on year %, margins of 12-month trailing earnings relative to sales
20 14
15
Equities
12
10
10
8
0
-5 6
-10
World US Europe UK EM China 4
ex-UK '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
2023 2024 US Europe ex-UK UK
Source: (Left) FTSE, IBES, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. MSCI indices are used for World, Europe ex-UK, EM and
China. UK is FTSE All-Share and US is S&P 500. Earnings data is based on 12-month forward estimates. (Right) FTSE, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, S&P Global,
J.P. Morgan Asset Management. US: S&P 500, Europe ex-UK: MSCI Europe ex-UK, UK: FTSE All-Share. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current
46 and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global equity market correlations with Treasury yields GTM Europe 47
Correlation of regions and styles to US 10y Treasury yield Correlation of MSCI ACWI sectors to US 10y Treasury yield
10y correlation of rel. performance with US 10y Treasury yield 10y correlation of sector rel. performance with US 10y Treasury yield
Value Energy
Regions/styles tending to Sectors tending to
outperform MSCI ACWI outperform MSCI ACWI
Japan Financials
when yields are rising when yields are rising
Equities
Industrials
Small cap
Materials
UK
Utilites
Eurozone
Health Care
EM
Cons. Staples
Large cap
Cons. Discr.
China
Real Estate
Sectors tending to
Regions/styles tending to underperform MSCI
US IT
underperform MSCI ACWI ACWI when yields are
when yields are rising rising
Growth Comm. Services
-1,0 -0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 -1,0 -0,8 -0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0
Country/region Large/small Value/Growth
Source: (All charts) LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Correlation of regions and styles is calculated between the six-month change in
US 10-year Treasury yields and the six-month relative performance of each region and style to MSCI All-Country World Index. Correlation of sectors is calculated
between the six-month change in US 10-year Treasury yields and the six-month relative performance of each sector to MSCI All-Country World Index. All indices
used are MSCI. Value and Growth as well as size indices used are for the MSCI All-Country World universe. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current
Global equity sector weights GTM Europe 48
Global equity sector weights

% of total market cap
30
25
20
Equities
15
10
5
0
IT Financials Health Care Cons. Discr. Industrials Comm. Serv. Cons. Staples Energy Materials Utilites
US Europe ex-UK UK EM
MSCI World Growth and Value sector weights

% of total market cap
40
30
20
10
0
IT Financials Health Care Cons. Discr. Industrials Comm. Serv. Cons. Staples Energy Materials Utilites
MSCI World Growth MSCI World Value
Source: (Top) LSEG Datastream, MSCI, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Indices are all MSCI, except for US, which is S&P 500. (Bottom) LSEG
Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Real estate is not included in these sector breakdowns due to the small size of the weight in each index. Past
48 performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global equity income GTM Europe 49
Dividend payout ratios MSCI World earnings and dividend drawdowns

%, three-month moving average % drawdown from rolling 2-year high
80 0
Recession
-10
70
Equities
-20
60
-30
50
-40
40
-50
30
-60
20 -70
'05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
US Europe ex-UK UK EM Earnings drawdowns Dividend drawdowns
Source: (Left) FTSE, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. US is S&P 500, UK is FTSE All-Share, MSCI indices used for
Europe ex-UK and EM. Dividend payout ratio shows 12-month trailing dividend per share divided by 12-month trailing earnings per share. (Right) Bloomberg,
MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Earnings and dividends are both calculated on a per share basis. Earnings data is last 12 months’ earnings per share.
Periods of recession are defined using US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dates. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of
49 current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Equity market factors GTM Europe 50
S&P 500 Quality/S&P 500 relative performance MSCI World Growth and Value forward P/E ratios
Relative total return index level, rebased to 100 in January 1990 x, multiple
160 36
150 32
Equities
Recession
140 28
130 24
120 20
110 16
100 12
90 8
'90 '93 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Growth Value
Source: (Left) J.P. Morgan Asset Management Quantitative Beta Solutions, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. S&P 500 Quality index is the top
quartile quality stocks in the S&P 500 determined by J.P. Morgan Asset Management Quantitative Beta Strategies based on measures of profitability, financial risk
and earnings quality. Periods of recession are defined using US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dates. (Right) LSEG Datastream,
MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forward P/E ratio is price to 12-month forward earnings, as published by MSCI. Past performance is not a reliable
50 indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US earnings GTM Europe 51
S&P 500 earnings and performance US inflation and earnings growth

Next 12 months’ earnings per share estimates USD (LHS); index level (RHS) % change year on year
300 5.000 10 80
9 70
8 60
Equities
240 4.000
Country/Region % of revenues 7 50
US 59%
6 40
Asia/Pacific 18%
Europe 14% 5 30
180 3.000
4 20
3 10
120 2.000 2 0
1 -10
0 -20
60 1.000
-1 -30
-2 -40
0 0 -3 -50
'86 '90 '94 '98 '02 '06 '10 '14 '18 '22 '86 '90 '94 '98 '02 '06 '10 '14 '18 '22
S&P 500 forward earnings S&P 500 index level US inflation S&P 500 trailing earnings
Source: (Left) FactSet, IBES, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Earnings data is based on 12-month forward estimates. (Right)
BLS, IBES, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Earnings data is last 12 months’ earnings per share. Past performance is not a
US equity valuations GTM Europe 52
S&P 500 forward P/E ratio Forward P/E ratio of the S&P 500 top 10 vs. the rest
x, multiple x, multiple
26 45
Average
Valuation
since Latest
measure 40
24 1990
Shiller CAPE ratio 26,5x 30,8x
Equities
P/B ratio 3,0x 4,3x 35

22
30
20
25
18
20
Average: 16,3x
16
15
14
31 Dec 2023: 10
19,8x
12 5
10 0
'96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23
Top 10 Remaining stocks
Source: (Left) IBES, LSEG Datastream, Robert Shiller, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forward P/E ratio is price to 12-month forward earnings,
calculated using IBES earnings estimates. P/E data may differ from Guide to the Markets - US, which uses FactSet earnings estimates. Shiller cyclically adjusted
P/E (CAPE) is price-to-earnings ratio adjusted using trailing 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. P/B ratio is trailing price-to-book ratio. (Right) FactSet,
S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The top 10 stocks are based on the 10 largest index constituents at the start of each month. Past performance is
52 not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US valuations and subsequent returns GTM Europe 53
S&P 500 forward P/E ratios and subsequent 1-year returns S&P 500 forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns
%, annualised total return* %, annualised total return*
60 30
40 20
Equities
20 10
0 0
-20 -10
-40 -20
Current level Current level

-60 -30
8x 11x 14x 17x 20x 23x 26x 8x 11x 14x 17x 20x 23x 26x
Source: (All charts) IBES, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. *Dots represent monthly data points since 1988, which is earliest
available. Forward P/E ratio is price to 12-month forward earnings, calculated using IBES earnings estimates. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of
US bull and bear markets GTM Europe 54
S&P 500 bull markets, %

700
Duration: 14 months
600
Price return: 33%
500 22 months
50 months 114%
400
86%
Equities
44 months 61 months 149 months 132 months

300
80% 229% 582% 401%
26 months 74 months 60 months
200 32 months
48% 126% 101%
100 74%
0
'58 '61 '64 '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21
S&P 500 bear markets, %

0
-10
1 month
-20
-34%
8 months 21 months
-30
6 months -22% -27%
-28% 18 months 3 months 17 months
-40
-36% -34% -57%
21 months 31 months 10 months
-50
-48% -49% -25%
-60
'58 '61 '64 '67 '70 '73 '76 '79 '82 '85 '88 '91 '94 '97 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21
Source: (All charts) Bloomberg, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Charts and labels refer to price return. Past performance is not a
Europe earnings and buyback yields GTM Europe 55
MSCI Europe earnings and performance European and US buyback yields

Next 12 months’ earnings per share estimates, EUR (LHS); index level (RHS) %
150 2.250 5
125 1.875
Equities
100 1.500
3
75 1.125
2
50 750
Country/Region % of revenues 1
25 Europe 45% 375
US 22%
Asia/Pacific 20%
0 0 0
'88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20 '24 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
MSCI Europe MSCI Europe US Europe
forward earnings index level
Source: (Left) FactSet, IBES, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Earnings data is based on 12-month forward estimates. (Right)
Bernstein, Bloomberg, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Buyback yields are the value of total stock buyback announcements over the previous
12 months as a percentage of Datastream regional index market cap. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
Europe equity valuations GTM Europe 56
MSCI Europe forward P/E ratio MSCI Europe relative valuation vs. the US
x, multiple %, relative discount/premium based on 12-month forward P/E ratios
25
Valuation Average Comm. Serv.
Latest
measure since 1990
23
CAPE ratio 19,2x 17,8x Cons. Discr.
Equities
21 P/B ratio 2,1x 2,0x

Cons. Staples
19 Energy
17 Financials
Average: 14,3x
15 Heath Care
13 IT
European sector
Industrials
11 cheaper than US
31 Dec 2023: Materials

9
13,0x
Utilities
7
Index
5
'90 '94 '98 '02 '06 '10 '14 '18 '22 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20
Average Current
Source: (Left) IBES, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forward P/E ratio is price to 12-month forward earnings, calculated using IBES
earnings estimates. Cyclically adjusted P/E (CAPE) is price-to-earnings ratio adjusted using trailing 10-year average inflation-adjusted earnings. P/B ratio is trailing
price-to-book ratio. (Right) LSEG Datastream, MSCI, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The chart shows the current percentage discount of the index
or sector 12-month forward P/E ratio vs. the equivalent for the S&P 500, and the average since 1995. Communication Services average is calculated using data
56 from 1995 to 2000 inclusive and from 2005 to date, due to sector composition changes. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Europe large, mid and small capitalisation equities GTM Europe 57
MSCI Europe large, mid & small cap performance MSCI Europe large, mid & small cap valuations
Index level, rebased to 100 in Jan 1995 x, multiple
600 25
23
500
Equities
21
400 19
17
300
15
200 13
11
100
9
0 7
'95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22
Mid & small cap Large cap Mid & small cap Large cap
Source: (All charts) LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Valuation is price to 12-month forward earnings ratio. Past performance is not a
UK earnings GTM Europe 58
FTSE All-Share earnings and performance FTSE All-Share earnings per share growth
Next 12 months’ earnings per share estimates, GBP (LHS); index level (RHS) % change year on year
450 5.000 60
Country/ % of
Region revenues
50
UK 24%
400 4.500
US 24%
Equities
40
Asia/Pacific 19%
350 Europe ex-UK 16% 4.000 30
20
300 3.500
10
250 3.000
0
200 2.500 -10
-20
150 2.000
-30
100 1.500 -40

'99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
FTSE All-Share FTSE All-Share Sales growth Margin growth Earnings growth
forward earnings index level
Source: (All charts) FactSet, FTSE, IBES, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Earnings data are based on 12-month forward estimates. Margin
growth is the growth rate of earnings per share divided by sales per share. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
Japan equity market and currency GTM Europe 59
TOPIX earnings and performance TOPIX and the yen vs. US dollar
Next 12 months’ earnings per share estimates, JPY (LHS); index level (RHS) Index level (LHS); JPY per USD (RHS)
200 3.000 2.600 70
Country/Region % of revenues
Japan 52%
180 2.700 2.400 80
Asia/Pacific 18%
Equities
US 15%
160 2.200 90
Europe 9% 2.400
140 2.000 100

2.100
120 1.800 110
1.800
100 1.600 120
1.500
80 1.400 130
1.200
60 1.200 140
900
40 1.000 150
Yen depreciating
20 600 800 160
0 300 600 170

'88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20 '24 '00 '03 '06 '09 '12 '15 '18 '21 '24
TOPIX forward earnings TOPIX index level TOPIX index level USDJPY (inverted)
Source: (Left) FactSet, IBES, LSEG Datastream, TOPIX, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Earnings data are based on 12-month forward estimates. (Right) LSEG
Datastream, TOPIX, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Emerging market equity valuations GTM Europe 60
MSCI EM price-to-book ratio EM price-to-book ratios by country

x, multiple x, multiple
3,2 7
6
2,8
Equities
5
2,4
2,0
Average: 1,8x 3
1,6
2
1,2
31 Dec 2023: 1
1,6x
0,8 0
'96 '99 '02 '05 '08 '11 '14 '17 '20 '23 Brazil China EM India Mexico South
Korea Taiwan
Africa
Range since 1996 Average since 1996 Current
Source: (All charts) IBES, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All indices are MSCI. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current
China equity price-to-book ratio and drawdowns GTM Europe 61
MSCI China price-to-book ratio

x, multiple
6
5
4
Equities
3
2
1
0
'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
MSCI China historical drawdowns

% drawdown from local peak, price return in local currency
0
-20
-40
-60
-80
-100
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
Source: (All charts) LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Bottom chart plots all drawdowns of 20% or more from the local peak. Past
Equity focus: Navigating Tech concentration GTM Europe 62
Contribution of largest seven “Tech” stocks to S&P 500 12-month forward earnings expectations
% contribution to S&P 500 market cap and trailing earnings % change year on year
35 50
30
40
Equities
25
30
20
20
15
10
10
0
5
0 -10
Dot com Today '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Index weight Earnings S&P 500 S&P 500 ex. “super 7” “Super 7”
Source: (Left) IBES, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Dot com bubble peak represents the largest seven Tech or Tech-related
firms in the S&P 500 by market cap, as of March 2000. We then show the same metrics for the “Today” bars for the current largest seven Tech or Tech-related
firms by market cap. (Right) IBES, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and
62 future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
World stock market returns GTM Europe 63
10-year
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4Q ’23 ann. return
EUR 24,4% 15,3% 24,8% 0,4% 33,9% 15,0% 38,5% -8,9% 22,0% 7,0% 14,5%
TOPIX S&P 500 Asia ex-JP S&P 500 S&P 500 Asia ex-JP S&P 500 Europe S&P 500 S&P 500 S&P 500
Local 12,1% 12,0% 35,9% -4,4% 31,5% 22,7% 28,7% -8,0% 26,3% 11,7% 12,0%
Equities
12,9% 14,9% 21,0% -6,8% 26,9% 8,9% 25,9% -9,3% 16,6% 6,5% 9,2%
S&P 500 MSCI EM MSCI EM Portfolio Portfolio MSCI EM Europe TOPIX Europe Europe Portfolio
1,4% 10,1% 31,0% -9,1% 24,5% 19,5% 23,3% -2,4% 15,0% 5,7% 8,4%
8,8% 9,5% 12,7% -9,4% 26,9% 8,6% 22,5% -11,5% 16,0% 5,5% 7,8%
Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio TOPIX Europe S&P 500 Portfolio Portfolio TOPIX Portfolio TOPIX
2,2% 8,5% 21,8% -16,0% 24,6% 18,4% 17,8% -12,2% 28,3% 7,0% 8,6%
8,8% 8,9% 11,2% -9,8% 21,4% 4,8% 8,8% -12,8% 15,3% 3,5% 7,1%
Europe Asia ex-JP TOPIX Asia ex-JP TOPIX Portfolio TOPIX S&P 500 Portfolio TOPIX Europe
5,4% 6,4% 22,2% -12,0% 18,1% 10,9% 12,7% -18,1% 18,2% 2,0% 7,0%
1,5% 6,6% 10,9% -9,9% 21,1% 3,7% 5,2% -14,1% 6,5% 3,4% 6,5%
Asia ex-JP TOPIX Europe MSCI EM MSCI EM TOPIX MSCI EM Asia ex-JP MSCI EM MSCI EM Asia ex-JP
-5,3% 0,3% 13,7% -9,7% 18,5% 7,4% 0,1% -15,1% 10,3% 5,6% 5,2%
-4,9% 3,2% 7,0% -10,0% 20,7% -2,8% 2,8% -14,5% 2,7% 2,0% 5,3%
MSCI EM Europe S&P 500 Europe Asia ex-JP Europe Asia ex-JP MSCI EM Asia ex-JP Asia ex-JP MSCI EM
-5,4% 7,9% 21,8% -10,0% 18,2% -1,7% -2,8% -15,2% 6,8% 4,3% 5,6%
Source: LSEG Datastream, MSCI, S&P Global, TOPIX, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Annualised return covers the period 2014 to 2023 inclusive. Hypothetical
portfolio (for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation): 35% Europe; 30% S&P 500; 15% EM; 10% Asia ex-Japan; 10% TOPIX. All
63 indices are total return. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Fixed income yields GTM Europe 64
Fixed income yields

% Developed market Convertible
Investment-grade bonds High yield bonds Emerging market bonds
government bonds bonds
12
10
8
Fixed income
6
Yield at start
of 2022
4
0
Return correlation to MSCI ACWI
-2 -0,0 -0,1 -0,0 0,3 -0,2 0,6 0,6 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,6 0,8 0,7 0,8 0,7 0,8 0,8 -0,2 0,6 0,4 0,7 0,7 0,7
Duration (years)
4,5 4,4 6,2 7,3 6,5 7,1 6,4 3,3 3,3 4,3 3,3 4,0 3,8 5,6 7,9 5,0 4,3 6,8 5,6
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays, ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Return correlation to
MSCI All-Country World Index is calculated using monthly total returns since 2008. Indices used are as follows: Euro IG: Bloomberg Barclays Euro-Aggregate
Corporate; Global IG: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Corporate; UK IG: Bloomberg Barclays Sterling Aggregate Corporate; US IG: Bloomberg Barclays
US Aggregate Corporate; Convertible bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Convertible Rate Sensitive hedged to USD; Euro HY: ICE BofA Euro Developed Markets
Non-Financial High Yield Constrained Index; Global HY: ICE BofA Global High Yield Index; US HY: ICE BofA US High Yield Constrained Index; EMD corporate:
CEMBI Broad Diversified; EMD local: GBI-EM Global Diversified; EMD local – China: J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Broad Diversified China; EMD sovereign: EMBI Global
Diversified; EMD sov. IG: EMBI Global Diversified IG; EMD sov. HY: EMBI Global Diversified HY. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future
Global government bond yields GTM Europe 65
Nominal 10-year government bond yields Real global government bond yield
% yield % yield
6 4
5 3
4 2
Fixed income
3 1
2 0
1 -1
0 -2
-1 -3
'02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '24
US UK Eurozone Japan
Source: (Left) LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Eurozone is a GDP-weighted average of the French, German, Italian and Spanish 10-year
government bond yields. (Right) ICE BofA, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Index shown is the ICE BofA Global Inflation-Linked Government
65 Bond index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
US yield curve GTM Europe 66
US yield curve Yield curve inversion and recessions

Basis points, 10-year Treasury yield minus 2-year Treasury yield Number of months from
300
Recession Curve
inversion
Yield to S&P S&P 500 Curve
200 curve 500 peak peak to inversion
inversion before start of to
date recession recession recession
Fixed income
100 Aug ’78 18 0 18
Sep ’80 3 8 11
0
Dec ’88 19 1 20
-100 May ’98 22 12 34
Dec ’05 22 3 25
-200
Median 19 3 20
-300
'77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12 '17 '22 Average 17 5 22
Source: (Left) LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Periods of recession
are defined using US National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) business cycle dates. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future
US Treasury diversification potential GTM Europe 67
S&P 500 / US 10-year Treasury correlations Total return scenarios for US Treasuries
Rolling one-year correlation based on weekly returns %
1,0 30
0,8
20
0,6
Fixed income
0,4 10
0,2
0
0,0
-0,2
-10
-0,4
-20
-0,6
-0,8
-30
-300bps -200bps -100bps 0bps +100bps +200bps +300bps
-1,0
'80 '84 '88 '92 '96 '00 '04 '08 '12 '16 '20 '24 Yield change over next 12 months
2-year 10-year
Source: (Left) LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Chart indicates the
calculated total return achieved by purchasing US Treasuries at the current yield and selling in 12 months’ time given various changes in yield. For illustrative
67 purposes only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global fixed income spreads GTM Europe 68
Fixed income spreads

%, option-adjusted spread
10 €
LCL
9
8
Fixed income
0
US IG Euro IG UK IG EMD (local sov.) EMD (corp. USD) US HY EMD (USD sov.) Euro HY
Range since 2010 Current spread Average spread since 2010
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays, ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Euro IG: Bloomberg
Barclays Euro Agg. Corporate; US HY: ICE BofA US High Yield Constrained; EM Debt: J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified; Euro HY: ICE BofA Euro Developed
Markets Non-Financial High Yield Constrained; US IG: Bloomberg Barclays US Agg. Corporate – Investment Grade; UK IG: Bloomberg Barclays Sterling Agg.
Corporate; EMD local: J.P. Morgan GBI-EM Global Diversified; EMD corporate: J.P. Morgan CEMBI Broad Diversified. Past performance is not a reliable indicator
68 of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Corporate refinancing GTM Europe 69
Global credit maturity schedule Global corporate refinancing costs

% of index % point difference between current yields and average coupon
25 5
4
Interest costs increasing
20 when refinancing
3
Fixed income
2
15
10
0
-1
5
-2
0 -3
2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24
Investment grade High yield Investment grade High yield
Source: (Left) Bloomberg, BofA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Global Investment Grade: BofA Global Corporate Index; Global High Yield: BofA Global
Developed Market Non-Financial High Yield Constrained Index. 2024 maturities include bonds that have now dropped out of the index given less than one year
until maturity. (Right) BofA, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Global Investment Grade: BofA Global Corporate Index; Global High Yield: BofA
Global Developed Market Non-Financial High Yield Constrained Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
High yield bonds GTM Europe 70
US high yield spread and defaults Euro high yield spread and defaults
%, default rate (LHS); %, option-adjusted spread (RHS) %, default rate (LHS); %, option-adjusted spread (RHS)
16 24 20
35 34 25
16 20
12 18
Fixed income
12 15
8 12
8 10
4 6
4 5
0 0 0 0
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22
Default rate Spread Default rate Spread
Source: (Left) ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Securities Research, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. US HY: ICE BofA US High Yield Constrained. US
HY default rate is defined as the par value percentage of the total market trading at or below 50% of par value and includes any Chapter 11 filing, prepackaged
filing or missed interest payments. (Right) Bloomberg, ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Securities Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Euro HY: ICE BofA Euro
Developed Markets Non-Financial High Yield Constrained Index. Euro HY defaults occur when bonds are downgraded to C rating. The calculation universe is
based on par value percentage of the EUR and GBP HY Non-Financials Corporate bond universe. Defaults include missed coupon payments, restructuring and
distressed exchanges. 2023 default rate is for the last 12 months of available data. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
Equity and bond returns after Fed hiking cycles GTM Europe 71
S&P 500 returns at the end of a Fed hiking cycle UST 10-year returns at the end of a Fed hiking cycle
%, price return, indexed to zero at the last hike %, total return, indexed to zero at the last hike
80 80
70 1983-84
70
1994-95
60 60
1983-84
50 2015-18 50
Fixed income
40 40
Last hike Last hike
30 30
1988-89 1988-89
2015-18
20 20 2004-06
1999-00
1994-95
10 10
0 2004-06 0
2022-2023
-10 -10
2022-2023
-20 -20
1999-00
-30 -30
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24
Months around the last hike Months around the last hike
Source: Federal Reserve, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The 2022-2023 cycle assumes that the last hike of the cycle was in
71 July 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Fixed income focus: Bond performance beyond peak rates GTM Europe 72
Relative performance of US bonds vs. cash after interest rate peaks

% (LHS); % points, two-year relative performance of US Aggregate bonds vs. cash (RHS)
10 20
8 16
Fixed income
6 12
4 8
2 4
0 0
'87 '91 '95 '99 '03 '07 '11 '15 '19 '23
Fed funds rate Outperformance of US bonds vs. cash
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays, Federal Reserve, ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Cash: ICE BofA 3-Month Treasury Bill Index; US bonds:
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Index. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Global fixed income returns GTM Europe 73
10-year ann.
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4Q ’23 return
EUR 12,7% 21,0% 6,3% 5,9% 17,2% 5,0% 13,3% -5,4% 11,8% 7,2% 6,8%
EM Debt US HY Euro HY US Treas. EM Debt Euro Gov US HY US HY Euro HY Euro Gov US HY
Local 1,2% 17,5% 6,3% 0,9% 15,0% 5,0% 5,3% -11,2% 11,8% 7,2% 4,5%
12,3% 13,4% 2,4% 2,7% 16,6% 3,1% 6,5% -6,7% 9,6% 5,5% 5,5%
US Treas. EM Debt Euro IG US HY US IG Infl Linked US IG US Treas. US HY Euro IG EM Debt
0,8% 10,2% 2,4% -2,3% 14,5% 3,1% -1,0% -12,5% 13,5% 5,5% 3,2%
10,6% 10,2% 1,4% 2,4% 16,5% 2,8% 6,4% -9,7% 8,2% 5,5% 5,3%
US IG Euro HY Infl Linked US IG US HY Euro IG Infl Linked Infl Linked Euro IG Euro HY US IG
Fixed income
-0,7% 10,2% 1,4% -2,5% 14,4% 2,8% 6,4% -9,7% 8,2% 5,5% 3,0%
6,4% 9,3% 0,2% 1,3% 11,2% 2,2% 5,7% -10,2% 7,3% 5,3% 3,7%
Portfolio US IG Euro Gov Portfolio Portfolio Euro HY EM Debt US IG EM Debt Infl Linked Portfolio
0,2% 6,1% 0,2% -1,4% 10,1% 2,2% -1,8% -15,8% 11,1% 5,3% 2,4%
6,3% 8,1% -2,8% 1,0% 10,9% 0,9% 5,1% -11,3% 7,1% 4,6% 3,5%
US HY Portfolio Portfolio Euro Gov Euro HY Portfolio US Treas. Euro HY Euro Gov EM Debt US Treas.
-4,6% 6,3% 4,3% 1,0% 10,9% 5,8% -2,3% -11,3% 7,1% 9,2% 1,3%
1,6% 4,7% -3,2% 0,6% 8,8% 0,8% 3,9% -11,5% 6,3% 4,5% 3,4%
Euro Gov Euro IG EM Debt EM Debt US Treas. US IG Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio Portfolio Euro HY
1,6% 4,7% 10,3% -4,3% 6,9% 9,9% -0,2% -14,6% 8,3% 7,0% 3,4%
1,4% 4,1% -5,6% -1,3% 6,8% -0,9% 3,4% -12,4% 5,9% 4,0% 2,1%
Euro HY US Treas. US HY Euro IG Euro Gov US Treas. Euro HY EM Debt Infl Linked US IG Infl Linked
1,4% 1,0% 7,5% -1,3% 6,8% 8,0% 3,4% -17,8% 5,9% 8,5% 2,1%
0,8% 3,8% -6,5% -1,5% 6,6% -2,7% -1,0% -13,6% 4,8% 2,6% 1,4%
Infl Linked Infl Linked US IG Infl Linked Infl Linked US HY Euro IG Euro IG US IG US HY Euro IG
0,8% 3,8% 6,4% -1,5% 6,6% 6,1% -1,0% -13,6% 8,5% 7,1% 1,4%
-0,6% 3,2% -10,1% -4,0% 6,2% -3,4% -3,5% -18,5% 0,5% 1,3% 1,3%
Euro IG Euro Gov US Treas. Euro HY Euro IG EM Debt Euro Gov Euro Gov US Treas. US Treas. Euro Gov
-0,6% 3,2% 2,3% -4,0% 6,2% 5,3% -3,5% -18,5% 4,1% 5,7% 1,3%
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays, ICE BofA, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. UK IG: Bloomberg Barclays
Sterling Agg. Corporate; US HY: ICE BofA US High Yield Constrained; EM Debt: J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified; Euro HY: ICE BofA Euro Developed Markets Non-
Financial High Yield Constrained; US IG: Bloomberg Barclays US Agg. Corporate – Investment Grade; US Treasuries: Bloomberg Barclays US Agg. Gov. Treasury; Euro IG:
Bloomberg Barclays Euro Agg. Corporate; Euro Gov.: Bloomberg Barclays Euro Agg. Government; Infl Linked: Bloomberg Barclays Euro Gov. Inflation-Linked. Hypothetical
portfolio (for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation): 20% Euro Gov.; 15% US Treasuries; 10% Linkers; 15% US IG; 10% Euro IG; 10% US
HY; 5% Euro HY; 15% EM Debt. Annualised return covers period 2014 to 2023 inclusive. Returns are unhedged in euros and local currencies. Past performance is not a
Oil GTM Europe 74
WTI crude oil price and US rig count Crude oil production by country
USD per barrel (LHS); number of rigs (RHS) Million barrels per day
160 2.400 20
18
140 2.100
16
120 1.800
14
100 1.500
12
Other assets
80 1.200 10
8
60 900
6
40 600
4
20 300
2
0 0 0
'07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Oil price Oil rigs US Russia Saudi Arabia Iran Venezuela
OPEC (ex-Saudi Arabia, Iran & Venezuela)
Source: (Left) Baker Hughes, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) EIA, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is
74 not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Commodities GTM Europe 75
Real US 10-year Treasury yield vs. gold Commodity prices

%, inverted (LHS); USD per Troy ounce (RHS) Index level, rebased to 100 in Jan 2007
-1,5 2.300 275
-1,0 2.100 250
225
-0,5 1.900
200
0,0 1.700
175
0,5 1.500 150

Other assets
1,0 1.300 125
100
1,5 1.100
75
2,0 900
50
2,5 700
25
3,0 500 0
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '24 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Real 10-year Treasury yield Gold Crude oil Agriculture Industrial metals
Source: (Left) LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Real yield is the US 10-year Treasury inflation-protected security yield. (Right) Bloomberg, J.P.
Morgan Asset Management. Industrial metals include aluminium, copper, nickel and zinc. Agriculture includes coffee, corn, soybeans, soybean oil, sugar and
75 wheat. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Volatility and alternative investments GTM Europe 76
Macro hedge fund relative performance & volatility Hedge fund style returns during bear markets
Index level (LHS); % change year on year (RHS) % total return
60 80 30
20
50 60
10
40 40 0
-10
Other assets
30 20
-20
20 0 -30
-40
10 -20
0 -40
'01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
VIX Macro hedge fund relative 2000 bear market 2008 bear market 2020 bear market
performance to MSCI Europe 2022
Source: (Left) CBOE, Hedge Fund Research Indices (HFRI), LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Macro hedge fund (total return in USD)
relative performance is calculated relative to MSCI Europe (total return in local currency). VIX is the implied volatility of S&P 500 Index based on options pricing.
(Right) Hedge Fund Research Indices (HFRI), LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. 2000 bear market is from 31 March 2000 to 31 October 2002,
2008 bear market is from 31 October 2007 to 28 February 2009, 2020 bear market is from 31 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. Hedge fund strategies are defined in
the HFRI hedge fund strategy classification system. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Inflation protection and alternative investments GTM Europe 77
Global core infrastructure returns Public and private market correlations

%, rolling 4-quarter returns from income and capital appreciation Correlation, quarterly returns
20
2008 - 2023 Global Bonds Global Equities
Financial Global Bonds 1,0

15 assets Global Equities 0,4 1,0
Global real U.S. Core RE -0,2 0,0

estate Europe Core RE -0,2 0,1
10
Commodities -0,2 0,0
Other assets
Global Core Infra -0,1 0,0

Real assets
5 Transport -0,2 0,0
Timber -0,2 -0,1
Direct Lending 0,0 0,7

Private markets
0 Private Equity 0,3 0,8
Equity Long/Short 0,3 0,9

Hedge funds
Macro 0,0 0,3
-5
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Income Capital appreciation
Source: (Left) MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Infrastructure returns represented by the MSCI Global Quarterly Infrastructure Asset Index “low risk” category. Rolling
one-year returns from income and capital appreciation. (Right) Bloomberg, Burgiss, Cliffwater, FactSet, HRFI, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, NCREIF, J.P. Morgan Asset
Management. Global equities: MSCI AC World Index; Global bonds: Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index; US core real estate: NCREIF Property Index – Open End Diversified
Core Equity; Europe core real estate: MSCI Global Property Fund Index – Continental Europe; Direct lending: Cliffwater Direct Lending Index; Global infrastructure: MSCI Global
Quarterly Infrastructure Asset Index (equal-weighted blend); Timber: NCREIF Timberland Total Return Index; Commodities: Bloomberg Commodity Index. Private equity is time-
weighted returns from Burgiss. Hedge fund indices are from HFRI. Transport: returns are derived from a J.P. Morgan Asset Management index. All correlation coefficients are
calculated based on quarterly total return data for the period 30 June 2008 to 31 March 2023. Returns are denominated in USD. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of
Asset return expectations GTM Europe 78
2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions expected returns in coming 10-15 years
%, annualised return in EUR
China
Eurozone large cap
Japan
Asia ex-Japan
Emerging markets
European core real estate

Other assets
US large cap
Global infrastructure
Euro investment-grade corporate bonds
Euro government bonds
Euro government inflation-linked bonds
Euro cash
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Equity Fixed income Alternatives
Source: 2024 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are nominal and in EUR. The projections in the chart above are
based on J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s proprietary Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions (10-15 years) for returns of major asset classes. The resulting
projections include only the benchmark return associated with the portfolio and do not include alpha from the underlying product strategies within each asset class.
The assumptions are presented for illustrative purposes only. Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of current and future results.
Ecological capacity and consumer concerns GTM Europe 79
Earths needed to sustainably meet ecological footprint US sales growth

Number of Earths required annually to sustainably meet ecological demand %, annualised growth rate from 2018 - 2022
2,0 7
2023 Earth Overshoot
Day: 2 August
1,8
6
1,6
1,4 5
1,2
4
1,0
3
0,8
0,6 2
ESG
0,4
1
0,2
0,0 0
'63 '68 '73 '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13 '18 '23 Products without ESG-related Products with ESG-related claims
claims
Source: (Left) Global Footprint Network National Footprint and Biocapacity Accounts 2022 Edition, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The ecological footprint
measures how fast the world’s population consumes resources and generates waste, which is then compared to how fast nature can absorb waste and generate
new resources. A score of more than one implies that the world has used more from nature than the planet can regenerate in the entire year. (Right) McKinsey &
Company, NielsenIQ, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The study covered 600,000 products representing USD 400 billion in annual retail revenues.
Carbon pricing GTM Europe 80
Global emissions covered by carbon pricing initiatives Emissions trading system prices
% of global greenhouse gas emissions USD per tonne of CO2 equivalent
25 120
100
20
80
15 IMF recommended carbon price by 2030
60
10
40
ESG
5
20
0 0
'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 '16 '18 '20 '22 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Other EU ETS Japan carbon tax South Korea ETS EU South Korea China
China ETS
Source: (Left) World Bank, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. ETS is emissions trading system. (Right) IMF, International Carbon Action Partnership, J.P. Morgan
Asset Management. China ETS price is the Shanghai ETS price up to July 2021, and the mainland price thereafter. USD 75 represents the IMF’s recommendation
for global average carbon prices by 2030 to limit global warming. CO2 equivalent tonnes standardise emissions to allow for comparison between gases. One
80 equivalent tonne has the same warming effect as one tonne of CO2 over 100 years. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Global CO2 emissions by country GTM Europe 81
Share of global CO2 emissions by country Global CO2 emissions per capita
%, 2021 Tonnes, 2021
100 20
80 16
60 12
40 8
ESG
20 4
0 0
China US UK & EU India Russia Japan Other US Russia Japan China UK & EU India
Source: (All charts) Gapminder, Global Carbon Project, Our World in Data, United Nations, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CO2 emissions are from the burning
of fossil fuels for energy and cement production. Emission impact from land use change (such as deforestation) is not included. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Energy mix and greenhouse gas emissions by sector GTM Europe 82
Share of energy carriers in end use sectors Share of global greenhouse gas emissions by sector
% % of global greenhouse gas emissions (2016), CO2 equivalent tonnes
100
Agriculture: 18%
90 Energy
industry: 24%
80
70
60
Wastewater /
landfill: 3%
50
Chemicals /
cement: 5%
40
30
ESG
20
Other Energy in
10 buildings:
energy:
15% 18%
0
2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050 2020 2030 2050
Transport Buildings Industry Energy in transport:
16%
Electricity Hydrogen E-fuels/bioenergies Heat
Fossil fuels
Source: (Left) Enel Group, European Commission Impact Assessment accompanying the communication on the 2030 Climate Target Plan (Sept 2020) and
ENTSOE & ENTSOG TYNDP 2020 Scenario Report (June 2020), J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) Climate Watch, Our World in Data, World Resource
Institute, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Greenhouse gas emissions include CO2, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated greenhouse gases. CO2 equivalent
tonnes standardise emissions to allow for comparison between gases. One equivalent tonne has the same warming effect as one tonne of CO2 over 100 years.
Investment in climate change mitigation and adaptation GTM Europe 83
Global investment in clean energy and energy efficiency Adaptation financing gap for developing countries
USD trillions USD billions, current flows and projected future need for adaptation finance
5 600
Forecast based on IEA’s

2050 net zero pathway 500
4
400
3
300
2
200
ESG
1
100
0 0
2015 2022e 2030e 2020 2030e 2050e
Low-carbon energy and carbon capture Energy efficiency
EVs, grids and battery storage
Source: (Left) IEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data is from the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2022 report. 2030e is based on the IEA’s net zero by 2050
scenario. (Right) United Nations Environment Programme Adaptation Gap Report 2022, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Electric vehicle sales and mineral content GTM Europe 84
Global electric vehicle sales and market penetration Mineral content of electric vehicles and conventional cars
Millions (LHS); % (RHS) Kilograms per vehicle
12 18 250
10 15
200
8 12
150
6 9
100
4 6
ESG
50
2 3
0 0 0
'10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 EV Conventional car
US Europe Market penetration of EVs Copper Lithium Nickel Manganese
China RoW Cobalt Graphite
Source: (All charts) IEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data is from the IEA’s "The Role of Critical Minerals in Clean Energy Transitions" report.
Global warming and energy consumption GTM Europe 85
Global temperature anomalies vs. pre-industrial levels Global energy mix

Degrees Celsius % of primary energy consumption (2021)
3,5
Scenario 2100 temperature (range) Spain
3,0 Current policy 2.7°C (2.2°C – 3.4°C)
2030 targets 2.4°C (1.9°C – 2.9°C) Germany

2030 targets + long-term pledges 2.0°C (1.6°C – 2.5°C)
2,5
Optimistic scenario* 1.8°C (1.5°C – 2.3°C)
Italy
2,0
Paris Agreement target range for 2100 China
1,5
UK
1,0
France
ESG
0,5
US
0,0
India
-0,5
1850 1900 1950 2000 0 20 40 60 80 100
Global mean surface temperature anomaly 10-year average Oil Coal Natural gas Nuclear Renewables
Source: (Left) Climate Action Tracker, Climate Change Tracker, Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Scenarios are based
on the November 2022 update of the Climate Action Tracker Thermometer. 2030 targets are based on nationally determined contributions (NDCs). *Optimistic
scenario represents Climate Action Tracker’s best case scenario, and assumes full implementation of all announced targets including net zero targets, long-term
climate strategies (LTS) and NDCs. (Right) Our World in Data, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Renewables include hydro, wind, solar and biomass fuels.
Droughts and food prices GTM Europe 86
Land affected by droughts Food prices

% of global land affected by droughts per year Index level
60 160
1972 Russian
drought
140
50 2010 Russian drought
120
40
100
30 80
60
20
ESG
40
10
20
0 0
'60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 '20 '60 '70 '80 '90 '00 '10 '20
1 month 3 months 6 months Nominal Real
Source: (Left) Global Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index Database, 2021. Beguería, S et al., The Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate
Change: 2022 Report, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Right) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
ESG and capital markets GTM Europe 87
Global green, social and sustainable bond issuance Spread between green and traditional corporate bonds
USD billions Basis points
1.100 2
1.000 1
900
0
800
-1
700
-2
600
-3
500
-4
400
-5
ESG
300
200 -6
Green bonds trading at a

100 -7
premium/lower spread
vs. traditional bonds
0 -8
'12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23 '19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Green bonds Social bonds Sustainable bonds YTD
Source: (Left) LSEG Eikon, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Green bonds have 100% of the net bond proceeds allocated to green projects. Social bond proceeds
have a focus on delivering positive social outcomes. Sustainable bond proceeds are directed to a mix of both green and social projects or if the bond
coupon/characteristics can vary based on achieving predefined sustainability targets. (Right) Barclays Research, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data shown is
latest available for a Barclays Research custom universe of green and non-green, USD and EUR denominated investment-grade credits, matched by issuer,
currency, seniority and maturity. Spread difference is measured using the option-adjusted spread. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future
Life expectancy GTM Europe 88
Probability of reaching ages 80 and 90

% probability, persons aged 65, by gender and combined couple
100
92
90
76
80
67
70
60
51
50
40
35
30
24
Investing principles
20
10
0
80 years 90 years
Men Women Couples - at least one lives to specified age
88 Source: ONS 2018-2020 Life Tables, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
The effect of compounding GTM Europe 89
€5.000 invested annually with 5% growth per year €5.000 investment with/without income reinvested
EUR EUR, MSCI Europe returns
700.000 120.000
€639.000
€104.000
600.000
100.000
500.000
80.000
400.000
€354.000
60.000
300.000
40.000
€33.000
200.000
20.000
100.000
0 0
25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 '86 '90 '94 '98 '02 '06 '10 '14 '18 '22
Starting at age 25 Starting at age 35 With dividends reinvested Without dividends reinvested
Source: (Left) J.P. Morgan Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only. Assumes all income reinvested. Actual investments may incur higher or lower growth
rates and charges. (Right) Bloomberg, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Based on MSCI Europe Index and assumes no charges. Past performance is not a
Cash investments GTM Europe 90
Income generated by €100.000 in a three-month bank deposit Effect of 2% inflation on purchasing power of €100.000
EUR EUR, thousands
7.000 100
€100.000
90
6.000
80
5.000 70
60
4.000
€45.000
50
3.000
40
2.000 30
20
1.000
10
0 0
2002 2023 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Bank deposit income Income required to beat inflation Years
Source: (Left) Eurostat, LSEG Datastream, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data shown are averages over the course of the calendar year. (Right) J.P. Morgan
Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only, assumes no return on cash and an inflation rate of 2%. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current
Long-term asset returns GTM Europe 91
Total return of $1 in real terms

USD, log scale for total returns
10.000
Annualised real returns Equities: $3.230
1900-2023 2000-2023
Equities 6,7% 4,5%
1.000
Bonds 1,8% 2,5%
Cash 0,5% -0,8%
100
Bonds: $9
10
Cash: $2
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Cash Bonds Equities
Source: Bloomberg, Bloomberg Barclays, FactSet, Shiller, Siegel, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Pre-2010 returns: Shiller, Siegel; from 2010:
Equities: S&P 500; Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury 20+ year Total Return Index; Cash: Bloomberg Barclays US Treasury Bills Total Return Index. Past
Annual returns and intra-year declines GTM Europe 92
MSCI Europe intra-year declines vs. calendar-year returns

%; despite average intra-year drops of 15,4% (median 12,0%), annual returns are positive in 33 of 44 years
50
39 YTD
40 35
34 34
30 28 28
22 22 23
21 20 20 18 20 20
20 15 16 17 16
13 13 12 12
9 10 11
10 6 4
4
2 2 2
0
3
-3 -4 -4
-10 -7 -4 -4 -4
-6 -8 -6 -5 -8
-6 -7 -5
-10 -11 -9 -11 -9
-11 -11 -11 -12-12 -12 -12 -12
-15 -12 -12 -15
-20 -16 -18 -15 -15
-18 -18 -17 -13
-22 -21
-30 -19 -25 -18
-26
-24 -31
-31
-40 -35 -35 -34
-37 -41
-50
-48
-60
'80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22
Calendar-year return Intra-year decline
Source: LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Returns are local currency price returns. Intra-year decline refers to the largest market fall
from peak to trough within the calendar year. Returns shown are calendar years from 1980 to 2023. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and
92 future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
Asset class risk-return trade-off GTM Europe 93
Historic risk vs. return for selected asset classes

%, annualised return 2004 – 2023 in EUR
10
Higher return
Global equities
8
Global high yield bonds
Emerging market debt
Compound return
Global investment-grade bonds

4
Euro government bonds

Cash
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Volatility Higher risk
Source: Bloomberg Barclays, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Volatility is the standard deviation of annual returns since 2004. Cash:
J.P. Morgan Cash EUR (3M); Euro government bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate – Treasury; Global investment-grade bonds: Bloomberg Barclays
Global Aggregate – Corporate; Emerging market debt: J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified; Global high yield bonds: ICE BofA Global High Yield; Global equities:
MSCI All-Country World Index (includes developed and emerging markets). Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
S&P 500 and fund flows GTM Europe 94
US mutual fund and ETF flows and S&P 500

USD billions, three-month net flows (LHS); index level (RHS)
200 5.000
150 4.375
100 3.750
50 3.125
0 2.500
-50 1.875
-100 1.250
-150 625
Avoid selling at the bottom
-200 0
'95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 '17 '19 '21 '23
Three-month net fund flows S&P 500 index level
Source: Investment Company Institute, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Fund flows are US long-term equity fund flows with ETF
flows included from 2006 onwards. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
25% drawdowns and subsequent returns GTM Europe 95
Subsequent 12-month returns after 25% drawdowns

%, S&P 500 total return in USD
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
2001 2008 1974 1947 1987 1962 1970 2020
Source: Bloomberg, S&P Global, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results.
US asset returns by holding period GTM Europe 96
Range of equity and bond total returns

%, annualised total returns, 1950-present
75
61%
48% 49%
50
30%
25 24% 24%
21%
17% 17% 18%
13% 15%
1% 4% 4%
1% 1%
0
-3% -1%
-3%
-7%
-25 -24%
-23%
-43%
-50 -43%
1-year rolling
1-year 5-year rolling
20-year
Large cap equityrollingBonds 50/50 portfolio rolling rolling rolling
Source: Bloomberg Barclays, LSEG Datastream, S&P Global, Strategas/Ibbotson, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Large cap equity represents the S&P 500
Composite and Bonds represents the Strategas/Ibbotson US Government Bond Index, the US Long-term Corporate Bond Index until 2000 and the Bloomberg
Barclays US Agg. Corporate – Investment Grade Index from 2000 onwards. Returns shown are per annum and are calculated based on monthly returns from
1950 to latest available and include dividends. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe.
Asset class returns (EUR) GTM Europe 97
10-year
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4Q ’23 ann. return Vol.
EM DM EM DM DM
REITs HY bonds Govt bonds REITs Cmdty REITs REITs
equities equities equities equities equities
13,9% 18,2% 4,6% 50,5% 23,7% 12,7% 22,4%
21,0% 30,8% 8,9% 20,2% 11,6%
DM DM Hedge DM
EMD Cmdty HY bonds REITs Cmdty HY bonds REITs Cmdty
equities equities funds equities
12,7% 15,1% 1,5% 30,4% 36,8% 9,6% 10,1% 16,9%
8,1% 6,9% 1,9% 6,9%
DM EM EM DM DM
Portfolio IG bonds Portfolio Cash Portfolio EMD Portfolio
equities equities equities equities equities
1,7% 1,3% 1,6% 0,0% 8,7% 4,6% 6,6%
11,0% 14,9% 21,1% 31,6% 13,2%
EM
Govt bonds EMD Cash REITs Portfolio IG bonds Portfolio HY bonds REITs IG bonds HY bonds
equities
7,7% 13,4% -0,3% 0,7% 18,9% 1,3% 16,6% -7,6% 7,7% 4,3% 6,0%
11,7%
Hedge
IG bonds REITs EMD EMD EMD Govt bonds Portfolio EMD Portfolio EMD EMD
funds
7,4% 12,6% -3,2% 0,6% 17,2% 0,5% -9,3% 7,3% 4,1% 5,5% 10,2%
11,5%
Hedge DM EM EM
HY bonds Cash HY bonds Cash HY bonds IG bonds Govt bonds Portfolio
funds equities equities equities
-3,2% -0,3% 15,8% -0,3% 9,1% -11,3% 3,6% 8,5%
7,3% 11,4% 6,5% 5,3%
EM
HY bonds Portfolio REITs Portfolio IG bonds HY bonds EMD Govt bonds IG bonds IG bonds HY bonds
equities
6,7% 10,3% -4,0% -1,6% 13,6% -0,9% 5,7% -12,1% 5,9% 4,0% 8,1%
3,4%
Hedge Hedge Hedge EM DM Hedge
Portfolio IG bonds IG bonds Cash HY bonds IG bonds
funds funds funds equities equities funds
6,3% 7,4% -4,2% 3,3% 3,2% 7,8%

-2,0% 10,6% -2,0% 5,2% -12,3% 3,7%
Hedge DM
Cash Govt bonds Cmdty EMD IG bonds EMD Govt bonds Cash Govt bonds Govt bonds
funds equities
0,1% -5,8% 9,7% -3,4% 4,5% -12,4% 0,7% 1,0% 1,9% 6,8%
5,6% -3,6%
EM Hedge EM Hedge Hedge Hedge
Govt bonds Cmdty Govt bonds Cmdty Govt bonds Cmdty
equities funds equities funds funds funds
4,7% -6,8% 7,5% -11,1% 0,5% 1,1%
-4,9% -6,9% -14,5% -0,4% -2,5% 6,4%
EM
Cmdty Cash Cmdty Cash REITs Cash REITs Cmdty Cmdty Cash Cash
equities
-16,1% -0,2% -10,7% -0,3% -13,6% -0,5% -20,2% -11,0% -8,6% 0,2% 1,1%
-9,9%
Source: Bloomberg Barclays, FTSE, J.P. Morgan Economic Research, LSEG Datastream, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Annualised return and volatility covers the
period from 2014 to 2023. Vol. is the standard deviation of annual returns. Govt bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Government Treasuries; HY bonds: ICE BofA
Global High Yield; EMD: J.P. Morgan EMBI Global Diversified; IG bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate – Corporate; Cmdty: Bloomberg Commodity; REITs: FTSE
NAREIT All REITS; DM equities: MSCI World; EM equities: MSCI EM; Hedge funds: HFRI Global Hedge Fund Index; Cash: J.P. Morgan Cash Index EUR (3M). Hypothetical
portfolio (for illustrative purposes only and should not be taken as a recommendation): 30% DM equities; 10% EM equities; 15% IG bonds; 12,5% government bonds; 7,5% HY
bonds; 5% EMD; 5% commodities; 5% cash; 5% REITs and 5% hedge funds. All returns are total return, in EUR, and are unhedged. Past performance is not a reliable
97 indicator of current and future results. Guide to the Markets - Europe. Data as of 31 December 2023.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management: Risks and disclosures GTM Europe
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global markets without reference to products. Designed as a tool to help clients Exchange Commission; in Latin America, for intended recipients’ use only, by local J.P. Morgan
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Global Market Insights Strategy team GTM Europe 2

Americas Europe Asia

Global economy Equities ESG

% change year on year Index level

Global manufacturing PMI

Eurozone 44,2 44,2

France 42,9 42,0

Germany 42,6 43,1

Ireland 50,0 48,9

Sweden 49,0 48,8

Japan 48,3 47,7

China 50,7 50,8

Indonesia 51,7 52,2

Korea 50,0 49,9

Taiwan 48,3 47,1

South Africa 48,2 -

% change year on year

Core inflation Market-based inflation expectations

% change year on year %, 5y5y inflation swap

% USD trillions Forecast

Public sector investment Public sector budget balance

% change year on year, three-year moving average % of nominal GDP

Government debt Government interest payments

% of nominal GDP % of nominal GDP

Nominal house prices Household debt

Index level, rebased to 100 in 2015 % of nominal GDP

US dollar and interest rate differentials

Index level (LHS); % points (RHS)

Population split by age: US Population split by age: eurozone

Millions of people Millions of people

Population split by age: UK Population split by age: China

Contribution to US real GDP growth US Purchasing Managers’ Indices (PMI)

% change year on year Index level

Percentile rank relative to historic data since 1990

% change year on year (LHS); index level (RHS) % of nominal GDP

US consumer confidence US nominal GDP composition

Index level USD trillions, latest quarter

US unemployment and wage growth

%, wage growth is year on year

US headline inflation breakdown US goods and services inflation

% change year on year % change year on year

Federal Reserve policy rate expectations

US mortgage refinancing and 30-year mortgage rate US personal interest payments

Index level (LHS); % (RHS) USD billions

US home sales US housing inventories

Millions, seasonally adjusted Thousands, seasonally adjusted

% change year on year

S&P 500 returns

% of nominal GDP (LHS); % (RHS) USD trillions

% change year on year Index level

Eurozone economic indicators

Percentile rank relative to historic data since 1999

Eurozone real investment and investment confidence Eurozone credit conditions

-15 -40 -10

-20 -50 -20

Eurozone consumer confidence Accumulated excess savings

Index level % of 2019 GDP, relative to pre-pandemic savings rates

Eurozone unemployment and wage growth Real wage growth

%, wage growth is year on year % change year on year

France, Germany, Italy and Spain unemployment rates

Eurozone headline inflation breakdown Eurozone headline and core inflation

% change year on year % change year on year

Citigroup economic surprise indices EU Recovery Fund grants