Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287

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Journal of Hydrology
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jhydrol

Research papers

Characterizing streamflow regimes using a distributed model for

sustainable resource management in the humid tropics
Ayron M. Strauch a, b, *, Yu-Fen Huang b, Yin-Phan Tsang b
a
Commission on Water Resource Management, Department of Land and Natural Resources, State of Hawai‘i, 1151 Punchbowl, Rm 227, Honolulu, HI 96813, Hawai‘i,
USA
b
Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Management, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, 1910 East-West Rd, Sherman 101, Honolulu, HI 96822, Hawai‘i,
USA

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

This manuscript was handled by Andras Bar­ Estimating streamflow regimes on small tropical islands is challenging due to limited observational data, poor
dossy, Editor-in-Chief accuracy of remote sensing, and the limitations of coarse-scale climate models, restricting our understanding of
hydrological processes and the management of water resources. The inadequacy of data has also affected the
Keywords: development of instream flow standards (i.e., environmental flows, e-flows) needed to protect ecological and
Humid tropics
cultural values central to island communities. Estimates of water availability for agriculture, hydropower, and
SWAT model
drinking water supply are also critical for informed investments in water resource planning. We utilized high-
Streamflow
Instream flow standards resolution (250 m) gridded daily rainfall data to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to
Sustainability characterize streamflow regimes at ungauged locations in a watershed on Kaua‘i Island. The resultant flow
statistics were then used to describe the daily, seasonal, and annual availability of surface water to evaluate the
implications of potential e-flow scenarios on water available for run-of-river hydropower. Compared to rainfall
data derived from a single station within the watershed, the gridded daily rainfall product increased the accuracy
of model output from not satisfactory to good. Model techniques using high resolution rainfall data may sub­
stitute for long-term hydrological data collection across complex tropical environments and provide data for
making sustainable management decisions at ungauged locations.

1. Introduction increase the uncertainty in the consequences of water management

The global demand for water to support agriculture, hydropower,
and drinking water supply is similarly playing out on remote tropical
islands which face great constraints on land and water availability
(March et al., 2003). On tropical islands, the availability to meet these
demands is limited by watershed and aquifer size, climate patterns, and
accessibility across varied landscapes (Craig, 2003). The challenges of
characterizing streamflow regimes on tropical islands mirror the prob­
lems associated with measuring rainfall: high intensity, episodic rainfall
rapidly produces overland flow (Strauch et al., 2018; Christian et al.,
2019); short flow paths and steep gradients efficiently transport runoff,
resulting in steeply sloped hydrographs (time to peak flow within hours)
compared to continental systems (Tomlinson & De Carlo, 2003); and
regional differences in hydrogeology affect uncertainty in surface water-
groundwater interactions (Izuka et al., 2018). Each of these processes
affect our ability to estimate streamflow at ungauged locations and
decisions.
While the availability of streamflow records greatly improves the
quantification of hydrologic processes, monitoring streamflow at all
locations is not feasible, and other methods are required to develop the
data necessary to classify flow regimes. Physically-based hydrologic
models can be utilized to simulate streamflow, if input data are available
with sufficient reliability—specifically rainfall and fog drip (Cuo et al.,
2006; Juvik and Ekern, 1978). A lack of reliable rainfall data leads to
poor agreement between modeled and observed flow estimates. Char­
acterizing natural flow regimes has become increasingly important for
understanding the consequences of resource management decisions on
freshwater ecosystems (Arthington and Pusey, 2003; Poff et al., 1997).
This is especially true where tradeoffs among water uses have broad
consequences for the local and regional community (Cai et al., 2018).
Limitations in the availability of observational data across the tropics
has affected estimates of rainfall and streamflow (Spangler et al., 2017;

* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: astrauch@hawaii.gov (A.M. Strauch).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131287
Received 1 November 2022; Received in revised form 13 April 2024; Accepted 17 April 2024
Available online 11 May 2024
0022-1694/© 2024 Published by Elsevier B.V.
A.M. Strauch et al.
Wohl et al., 2012). Multiple hydrological models have been used to es­
timate streamflow regimes in the tropics (Wohl et al., 2012). We utilized
the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a semi-distributed, physi­
cally based hydrological model (Arnold et al., 1998). The SWAT was
previously used successfully for water resource management applica­
tions, including the modeling of climate change impacts on streamflow
and water yield, erosion and sediment modeling, land use change, the
assessment of management practices on streamflow and sediment yield
(Fukunaga et al., 2015; Gassman et al., 2007). Further, Leta et al. (2016)
successfully used SWAT to estimate hydrological processes in a similarly
complex watershed in Hawai‘i.
With new insights in the hydrogeology of volcanic islands and the
development of computationally advanced models, streamflow can be
estimated at ungauged locations (Strauch et al., 2017; Izuka et al.,
2018). However, the extent and accuracy of data serving as model inputs
can affect the reliability of the model results (Guan et al., 2020). The
spatial and temporal pattern of rainfall in the tropics are influenced by
both large-scale climate trends and micro-climate patterns that develop
over heterogeneous landscapes (Mair and Fares, 2011; Frazier and
Giambelluca, 2017). Due to the stochastic nature of daily rainfall, large
variations in elevation, slope, and aspect increases the spatial variability
driven by orographic processes, rain shadow effects, or trade wind
strength, adding much uncertainty (Buytaert et al., 2006). This makes
the interpolation of daily rainfall either from point measurements or
remote sensing intrinsically difficult and the estimation of streamflow at
ungauged locations uniquely challenging (Newman et al., 2019). Ordi­
nary kriging methods used to interpolate rainfall from point measure­
ments can be effective across complex topographic features at longer (i.
e., monthly, annual) time scales (Mair and Fares, 2011; Frazier et al.,
2016), but complications may develop at shorter time scales (i.e., daily)
and results may be less reliable (Shen, 2001; Ly et al., 2011). In Hawai‘i,
the high diversity of rainfall patterns are due to a combination of
persistent trade winds generating orographic rainfall and fog drip, steep
elevation gradients, complex topography, and the inversion in the
temperature lapse rate that influences cloud height, rainfall distribution,
and relative humidity at various elevations (Giambelluca and Nullet,
1991; Nullet et al., 1995;Giambelluca et al., 2013).
Historically, gridded rainfall was available at coarse spatial (0.5
degree x 0.5 degree) or temporal (monthly) resolutions (Hassell et al.,
2017; Xie and Arkin, 1997; Frazier and Giambelluca, 2017). Such scales
provide poor agreement for the processes that occur at smaller spatial
scales (catchments) and shorter time scales (hours to days) in tropical
islands (Tomlinson and De Carlo, 2003; Biasutti and Yuter, 2013).
Higher resolution (250 m) daily rainfall and temperature data can vastly
improve the ability of models to simulate climate patterns across a range
of conditions needed to estimate real-world hydrological events (Hofstra
et al., 2008; Guo et al., 2018). Recently available data for Hawai‘i has
created new possibilities for modeling watershed hydrology to improve
streamflow management (Longman et al., 2019).
There is also a need to establish environmental flows (e-flows) that
protect freshwater resources from over exploitation (Acreman, 2016). In
Hawai‘i, the State of Hawai‘i Commission on Water Resource Manage­
ment (Hawai‘i CWRM) is mandated to establish instream flow standards
(i.e., e-flows) that protect identified instream values (e.g., ecosystem
services, traditional and customary practices, fish habitat, water quality,
recreation, and navigation) across the Hawaiian islands (Sakoda, 2007).
Effective, informed management decisions to develop water for
municipal, agricultural, or hydropower uses are thus limited by a lack of
streamflow data characterizing natural flow regimes.
Hydroelectric power generation utilizes renewable surface water,
reducing the dependence on fossil fuels and associated CO2 emissions.
However, large reservoirs have many negative drawbacks in the tropics,
including reductions to freshwater habitat, the trapping of sediment and
organic matter leading to siltation (Falinski and Penn, 2018) and re­
ductions in downstream and estuarine productivity (Ezcurra et al.,
2019). By contrast, run-of-river hydropower, provides a unique
2
Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287
opportunity to generate power from renewable water resources without
using scarce land for utility scale wind or solar power. This type of hy­
dropower relies on the withdrawal of water from streams at high ele­
vations to power a turbine at a lower elevation, taking advantage of the
head produced by steep elevation gradients and reliable water supply
(Anderson et al., 2014; Lorentis et al., 2010). Such systems avoid the
inundation of scarce land and its associated production of greenhouse
gases (Prairie et al., 2017).
The objective of this study was to generate natural flow regimes in a
tropical watershed for a system of run-of-river stream diversions based
on high resolution rainfall data to test the consequences of specific e-
flows on the availability of water for hydropower. We first compared
modeled streamflow values generated using a single rainfall station
located within the watershed to the high-resolution daily rainfall
product available from Longman et al. (2019). Then, using mean daily
flow quantified over a 20-year period (1995–2014), we determined: 1)
the annual and seasonal characteristics of the natural flow regime in
each of these headwater tributaries; 2) low-flow duration characteristics
that might inform the development of e-flows; and 3) the availability of
water for hydropower production under various e-flow scenarios. A
discussion of how these data may help provide equitable management of
surface water follows.
2. Methods
2.1. Watershed characteristics
Run-of-river hydropower makes an important contribution to the
total energy portfolio of the Island of Kaua‘i. Wailua is a 136.23 km2
watershed on the eastern flank of the Wai‘ale‘ale mountain, bordered on
the north by the Makaleha Mountains and the south by the Kilohana
Volcano on the Island of Kaua‘i (22◦ 05′N 159◦ 30′W) within the Ha­
waiian island chain (Fig. 1). It forms the northern portion of the Lı̄hu‘e
Basin, a unique geologic depression that also includes the Huleia,
Nawiliwili and Hanama‘ulu watersheds (Izuka et al., 2018). Two sepa­
rate volcanic phases produced the geology of the region: the Waimea
Canyon Series and the Kōloa volcanic series (Macdonald et al., 1960).
Tholeiitic Waimea Canyon basalt formed during the initial shield-
building phase of the island and composes the lower layers of the
Lı̄hu‘e Basin (Gingerich, 1999). The two formations of this series are the
Napali formation, which is composed of thin-bedded permeable lava
flows that originated at the caldera boundary, and the Haupu formation,
which is composed of thickly massive lava flows accumulated in a large
pit crater in the southeast (Macdonald et al., 1960). Stream channel
incision has exposed volcanic dikes formed by Waimea Canyon basalt,
which impound high-elevation groundwater, contributing to the base
flow of streams (Gingerich, 1999). In the second volcanic phase, thick
lava flows of mostly massive alkalic olivine basalts of the Kōloa Volcanic
Series dominate the Lı̄hu‘e Basin (Macdonald et al., 1960). This stage of
rejuvenated shield building filled valleys, gorges, and depressions in the
Waimea Canyon basalt with heterogeneous lava flows, ash, tuff, cinder,
and sediments as much as 300 m thick (Macdonald et al., 1960). While
some studies have shown that the contact between Kōloa Volcanics and
the Waimea Basalt occurs at about 150 m in elevation, there is evidence
that the thickness of the Kōloa Volcanic layer is highly variable and
dependent on the shape of the eroded surface (Gingerich, 1999). This
geology results in substantial groundwater contributions to streamflow
in the lower gradient reaches and affects deep groundwater routing
within the SWAT model.
Rainfall in the watershed is affected by east-northeasterly trade
winds that push warm, moist air against the windward side of Wai‘a­
le‘ale (elevation 1569 m) and up into higher elevations where cooler
temperatures persist. As the moist air cools, water condenses, and the air
mass releases precipitation. Near the coast, mean annual rainfall is as
little as 1,270 mm but in the headwaters of Wailua, annual rainfall can
exceed 10,000 mm per year (Giambelluca et al., 2013). As a result,
A.M. Strauch et al.
Fig. 1. Map of Wailua watershed and headwater tributary sub-basins (labeled), with U.S. Geological Survey stations (identification number), ditch/canal systems,
and hydropower plants, on the Island of Kaua‘i, Hawai‘i.
frequent and heavy rainfall is observed on the mountain slopes. The
highest position in Wailua lies in the fog drip zone, a region of vegeta­
tion that intercepts moisture trapped below the temperature inversion
(Scholl et al., 2002). While the temperature inversion zone typically
extends from 2,100 m to 2,700 m, climate below the inversion can be
extremely variable, and difficult to estimate using a limited distribution
of observations (Giambelluca and Nullet, 1992).
The North Wailua Ditch traverses three headwater tributaries of the
Wailua River (drainage area = 136.2 km2), diverting water from each to
power the Upper Waiahi Hydropower Plant: Wai‘ale‘ale (drainage area
= 4.56 km2), Waikoko (drainage area = 2.84 km2), and Ili‘ili‘ula
(drainage area = 3.99 km2) (Fig. 1). The tailrace flow from this hydro­
power plant is combined with the flow diverted from the Waiahi trib­
utary to power the Lower Waiahi Hydropower Plant.
2.2 Model set-up
The SWAT model is based on water balance that considers precipi­
tation, surface runoff, baseflow, actual evapotranspiration, lateral flow,
percolation, and deep groundwater loss components (Neitsch et al.,
3
Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287
2011). We divided the study watershed into 21 sub-basins (supple­
mental table 1) that were then further divided into hydrological
response units (HRUs) based on geology, land use, soil type, and slope
(Neitsch et al., 2011). A greater number of smaller sub-basins were
nested at higher elevations to better represent topographic heteroge­
neity (Fig. 1). ArcGIS compatible with SWAT 2012 was utilized to
manage the spatial data. The average (±standard deviation) size of each
HRU was 0.0424 (±0.1467) km2.
We established the spatial characteristics with a 10 m x 10 m Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) obtained from the USGS; 1:24,000 scale soil
maps from Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database provided by the
U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service
(USDA-NRCS), and 2010 land use data from National Oceanic and At­
mospheric Administration/Coastal Change Analysis Program (NOAA,
2010) for Kaua‘i (Table 1). The sub-basins utilized for estimated
streamflow were all in the upper watersheds, above any agricultural or
urban land uses, and dominated by a mixture of native and non-native
wet forest species and wet cliff vegetation (see supplemental Fig. 1).
Based on the slope distributions of the entire watershed, five slope
classes (the maximum number permissible in SWAT) were defined and
A.M. Strauch et al. Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287

Table 1 parameter-optimization by using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting

Data type and source (year of dataset publication) for SWAT model
development.
Data type Data source
Mean daily streamflow USGS 16068000 EB NF Wailua River nr Lihue
Daily rainfall Longman et al. (2018)
Daily temperature (maximum, Longman et al. (2018)
minimum)
Digital elevation model (10 m) USGS (2019) National Elevation Dataset
Landcover NOAA Coastal Change Analysis Program (2010)
Soil Soil Survey Staff; USGS Soil Survey Geographic
Database (2017)
assigned: 0-≤9%; 9-≤20 %; 20-≤31.5 %; 31.5-≤46 %; and > 46 %.
Climate variables included daily rainfall, maximum and minimum
temperatures, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed
(Table 1). Daily rainfall and temperature data for the period between
1990 and 2014 were obtained from high-resolution gridded 250 m x
250 m (0.0625 km2) daily rainfall and temperature maps (Longman
et al., 2019). Longman et al. (2019) used an inverse distance weighted
approach coupled with long-term climatological aid to interpolate daily
rainfall data (Willmott and Robeson, 1995). If the HRU incorporated
more than one 250 m grid, we used the zonal mean (the function in ESRI
ArcGIS Desktop 10.4.1) of the daily rainfall for that HRU. Using the
built-in WXGEN weather generator model, relative humidity and solar
radiation were generated based on the daily rainfall and temperature,
while wind speed was generated independently using Sharpley and
Williams (1990). The daily streamflow data were assessed using the R
package, dataRetrieval (De Cicco et al., 2018).
2.3. Model calibration and validation
We used data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) station
16,068,000 on the East Branch of the North Fork Wailua (catchment
area = 16.17 km2; 153 m a.m.s.l.; 74.9 % evergreen forest) to calibrate
and validate the model. We applied the model to estimate mean daily
flow (MDF) at USGS 16068000 from 1995 to 2014. This time period
captures multiple positive and negative PDO phases and El Niño/La
Niña southern oscillations that influence wet and dry season rainfall in
Hawai‘i (Frazier et al., 2018; supplemental Fig. 2). The sub-basin of
USGS 16068000 has similar underlying geology, topography, and
vegetation cover to the sub-basins of interest. Additional aggregated
sub-basin characteristics are provided in Table 2. The newly available
rainfall and temperature products from Longman et al. (2019) begins in
1990. The period of daily flow records was split into three periods: a
warm-up period (1990–1995) to initialize the state variables, a cali­
bration period (1995–2010), and a validation period (2010–2014).
These periods were of sufficient length to capture the variability in
seasonal flows as well as the magnitude in low flow periods (supple­
mental table 3). 500 iterations of the model were calibrated by opti­
mizing model stream discharge with respect to observed values from
USGS station 16,068,000 for calendar years 1995 to 2010. We applied
(SUFI2) algorithm through SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program
(Abbaspour et al., 2007). The SUFI2 algorithm requires a sufficient
number of iterations to converge to a stable solution. Based on other
SWAT publications in Hawai‘i (Leta et al., 2016), we started with 300
iterations. However, at 300 iterations, we found the objective function
did not fully stabilized, so we extended to 500 iterations. Parameters
(see supplemental table 1) were initially adjusted to optimize runoff and
peak flow conditions which occur regularly in the humid tropics and
must be sufficiently characterized to produce reliable flow duration
curves. To improve model agreement during baseflow conditions, the
saturated hydraulic conductivity (SOL_K) was set to match its range
from observations based on USGS reports (Gingerich, 1999; Izuka, 2006;
Izuka and Gingerich, 1998). Model outputs were evaluated graphically
to compare hydrograph recessions and the extent modeled data deviated
from observed values (Fig. 2). Flow duration curves were also used to
visualize the distribution frequency of modeled flows compared to
observed flows (supplemental Fig. 3).
The calibration and validation included multiple statistical perfor­
mance measures based on Moriasi et al. (2007): the Nash-Sutcliffe effi­
ciency (NSE) (Nash & Sutcliffe, 1970); the correlation coefficient
reported as coefficient of determination (r2) (Legates et al., 1999); root
mean square error (RMSE) (Hodson, 2022); and percent bias (PBIAS)
(Gupta et al., 1999). Performance evaluation criteria for daily and
annual flow metrics were assessed using Moriasi et al., (2015; table 9).
The upper and lower 95 % confidence intervals (CI) of simulated flow
were then reported and the median model run and the best single
simulation were compared to observed flow characteristics (Table 3).
We used the median simulated value (n = 500) for reporting model daily
flow statistics for each sub-basin in the analysis as it most closely
resembled the observed low-flow values in the calibration period. We
also simulated streamflow at a second USGS station (USGS 160,715,000
Left Branch Opaekaa Str nr Kapaa) located at a slightly lower elevation
(140 m a.m.s.l.), a smaller catchment area (1.9425 km2), and less
forested cover (68.4 %). For comparative purposes, the model was also
run utilizing a single rainfall station (USGS 220,356,159,281,401
1051.0 N Wailua Ditch Rain Gage) located within the watershed.
Fig. 2. Example of observed and modeled mean daily flow (m3s− 1) at USGS
16068000 during the calibration period for calendar years 2000 to 2002.

Table 2
Location name, USGS gauge ID, location and catchment characteristics for sub-basin locations used in model calibration/validation and ungauged locations where the
model was applied.
Location name USGS gauge ID Period of latitude longitude Catchment area mean catchment Minimum maximum
Record (ha) slope (%) elevation (m) elevation (m)

EB NF Wailua 16068000 1912-present 22.07405 − 159.423 1609.39 45.35 157 991

River
NF Wailua River 16063000 1914–1985 22.06259 − 159.458 1184.82 58.19 218 1598
Wai‘ale‘ale 220427159300201 ungauged 22.06659 − 159.484 455.81 98.74 335 1598
Stream
Waikoko Stream 220356159281401 ungauged 22.05591 − 159.478 284.18 62.29 337 660
Ili‘ili‘ula Stream 220358159264301 ungauged 22.04631 − 159.488 397.78 93.73 324 1593
Waiahi Stream 16057900 2015–2019 22.02504 − 159.476 1046.02 39.74 247 772

4
A.M. Strauch et al.
Table 3
Low-flow duration characteristics (m3s− 1) for the observed data at the USGS 16068000 stream gaging station and the lower 95 % confidence interval (CI), upper 95 %
CI, best simulation, and median model result for 500 iterations of the SWAT model run at a daily interval from 1995 to 2014, following a warm-up period from 1990 to
1995. [MDF = mean daily flow; L14d = lowest 14-day mean flow; CV = coefficient of variation; BFQ50 = median base flow].
MDF Q50 Q70
Observed 1.240 0.742 0.586
Modeled Lower 95 % CI 0.733 0.540 0.414
Upper 95 % CI 1.319 0.901 0.673
Best Simulation 1.029 0.680 0.500
Median Model Run 1.023 0.749 0.557
2.4. Data Analysis
To verify that modeled daily rainfall approximated rainfall measured
at a specific location within a sub-basin, gridded daily rainfall were
compared to the USGS 220356159281401 1051.0 N Wailua Ditch Rain
Gage from 2001 to 2014 using RMSE, PBIAS and r2 analyses. Mean daily
flow (MDF), median (Q50) flow and low-flow duration discharge sta­
tistics (Q70 to Q99) were calculated for each sub-basin for the model
period (Poff et al., 1997). The lowest 14-day average flow (L14d) was
determined for the model period by using a running average (Olden and
Poff, 2003). Minimum monthly flow was also calculated to compare
variation in minimum flow conditions over time. The median base flow
was determined by first partitioning mean daily flow into daily base flow
and runoff through a statistical base flow separation procedure using the
Eckhardt filter method (Lim et al., 2005). Flow statistics were similarly
calculated for wet (November to April) and dry (May to October) sea­
sons. Coefficient of variation (CV) was calculated as the ratio of the
standard deviation (SD) to the mean. MDF yield was calculated by
normalizing flow values by catchment area (supplemental Fig. 4).
Additional historic (1914–1985) streamflow data were available on
the North Fork Wailua River (NF Wailua) at USGS 16063000 below the
confluence of three tributaries. Modeled flow duration statistics for this
site were compared to observed statistics based on Cheng (2016). Model
results from 1995 to 2014 period were also compared to low-flow
duration discharge estimates for the 1961–2019 period provided by
Cheng (2020) for each sub-basin based on partial-record measurements
and record augmentation.
2.5. Comparisons to previous records of water diverted for hydropower
The North Wailua Ditch transports water diverted from the Wai‘a­
le‘ale, Waikoko, and Ili‘ili‘ula streams. USGS station 160,612,000 on the
North Wailua Ditch below the Waikoko diversion dam was active until
2002, providing a record of daily ditch flow from the combined diverted
flows of Wai‘ale‘ale and Waikoko streams. However, this record does not
indicate when the intakes were plugged by debris or when the ditch was
shut down for maintenance (i.e., resulting in less ditch flow despite the
availability of streamflow); rather it reflects the amount diverted during
periods below ditch capacity and without operational constraints (e.g.,
when the diversions are operational). While the maximum designed
capacity of the ditch is 1.3144 m3s− 1 (30 million gallons per day) at the
penstock (SSFM International, 2019), under real-world conditions at
USGS 160612000, the capacity is approximately 1.02 m3s− 1. Assuming a
ditch efficiency of 80 % for diverted flow rates typical of older irrigation
systems, comparisons between diverted flow at USGS 160612000 and
80 % of modeled flow summed from Wai‘ale‘ale and Waikoko can be
made for the overlapping period of record (1995–2002). Significant
differences in mean daily flow values between modeled and actual ditch
flow at USGS 16061200 were tested with the non-parametric Mann-
Whitney U test. Mean daily ditch flow available below the diversion on
Ili‘ili‘ula Stream was then estimated for flows below ditch capacity
(1.3144 m3s− 1).
5
Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287
Q90 Q95 Q99 L14d CV BFQ50
0.374 0.311 0.263 0.612 1.633 0.650
0.253 0.202 0.184 0.644 1.552 0.450
0.407 0.307 0.264 0.736 1.358 0.770
0.297 0.228 0.208 0.673 1.487 0.560
0.322 0.250 0.224 0.700 1.430 0.620
3. Results
3.1. Modeled versus Observed hydrological characteristics
Mean daily rainfall at the USGS 220356159281401 station matched
observed values well, with performance evaluation criteria ratings of
good or very good (RMSE = 9.34; r2 = 0.87; PBIAS = -16.3 %) and es­
timates of gridded daily rainfall was similarly effective during the dry
season (r2 = 0.83) as the wet season (r2 = 0.87). Although modeled
rainfall generally underestimated actual rainfall at this location, the
large elevation variability, ranging from 335 m to 635 m to the south
interfluve (260 m linear distance) and to 650 m to the north interfluve
(710 m linear distance) confounds the applicability of a single rainfall
station to the mean daily rainfall for an entire grid. Thus, a 250 m grid is
not expected to perfectly predict rainfall for a single point but may still
accurately represent rainfall averaged over the entire 250 m grid. Using
daily rainfall available from the single rainfall station, the SWAT model
results were considered not satisfactory (NSE = 0.09; RMSE = 3.01; r2 =
0.65; PBIAS = -18.3 %).
At the calibration station (USGS 16068000), MDF for the single best
model had a good agreement rating with observed values (NSE = 0.73;
RMSE = 1.0560; r2 = 0.75; PBIAS = 17.02 %), however, the median
model result more closely matched the observed low-flow characteris­
tics (Table 3), while still maintaining satisfactory agreement between
overall observed and modeled output (NSE = 0.69; RMSE = 1.1198; r2
= 0.72; PBIAS = 17.47 %) for the 1995–2014 period. As expected,
modeled flows underestimated peak MDF compared to observed flows,
resulting in a distribution of flows with greater negative skew (Fig. 2).
Despite strong correlations and low RMSE, at an annual time scale, the
model performance was not satisfactory using either the best simulation
(NSE = -0.156; RMSE = 0.232; PBIAS = 17.0 %; r2 = 0.80) or the median
model result (NSE = -0.208; RMSE = 0.2374; r2 = 0.80; PBIAS = 17.47
%). This was due to the model consistently underestimating the
magnitude of high flow events.
At USGS 16071500, the model performed satisfactorily (NSE = 0.65;
RMSE = 0.0777; r2 = 0.69), capturing some of the magnitude and
variability of streamflow for the 1995–2014 period, however, the model
was not satisfactory based on PBIAS (23.8 %). In this smaller, lower
elevation watershed, the model consistently over-represented the min­
imum annual flow (mean difference − 73.5 %), although it successfully
estimated the mean annual flow (mean difference = -2.7 %).
3.2. Modeled streamflow in headwater tributaries
In the headwater streams, MDF for the 1995 to 2014 period varied
from 0.722 m3s− 1 in Wai‘ale‘ale, to 0.610 m3s− 1 in Ili‘ili‘ula, and 0.369
m3s− 1 in Waikoko. Median flow from 1995 to 2014 was approximately
30 % less than MDF (Table 4). Median base flow (BFQ50) was about 60 %
of observed Q50 at USGS 16068000, 57 % of Q50 in Wai‘ale‘ale, 54 % of
Q50 in Waikoko, 77 % of Q50 in Ili‘ili‘ula, and 80.5 % of Q50 in Waiahi,
indicating the relatively high contribution of groundwater to surface
flow. Observed MDF yield at USGS 16068000 (7.63 mm) was similar in
magnitude to MDF yield at NF Wailua (USGS 16063000), and as ex­
pected, less than modeled values in the headwater streams (Table 4).
A.M. Strauch et al. Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287

Table 4
Modeled low-flow duration characteristics (m3s− 1) for five sub-basins for the 1995–2014 model period in Wailua, Kaua‘i. [MDF = mean daily flow; Y = yield (mm);
L14d = lowest 14-day mean flow; CV = coefficient of variation; BFQ50 = median base flow].
location MDF MDF Y Q50 Q70 Q90 Q95 Q99 L14d CV BFQ50

Wai‘ale‘ale 0.722 0.0086 0.491 0.373 0.275 0.232 0.156 0.099 1.211 0.410
Waikoko 0.369 0.0022 0.256 0.184 0.120 0.098 0.070 0.045 1.187 0.200
Ili‘ili‘ula 0.610 0.0011 0.429 0.306 0.202 0.165 0.112 0.073 1.158 0.330
Waiahi 1.272 0.0011 1.006 0.760 0.512 0.416 0.285 0.197 0.946 0.810
NF Wailua at 198 m 0.840 0.0024 0.668 0.495 0.338 0.283 0.216 0.147 0.989 0.550

There were consistent trends in mean annual baseflow that mirrored
total flow among tributaries over time, with differences driven by
catchment area and mean annual rainfall (Fig. 3). MDF yield was
greatest in Wai‘ale‘ale and Ili‘ili‘ula, followed by Waikoko and Waiahi
headwater streams (Table 4). This was also true for BFQ50 yields (not
shown). The L14d flow was lowest in Waikoko and greatest in Waiahi. At
median flow, Wai‘ale‘ale Stream contributed 86 % of the flow at NF
Wailua.
From 1995 to 2014 minimum mean monthly flow ranged from 0.090
m3s− 1 to 0.768 m3s− 1 for Wai‘ale‘ale Stream, from 0.065 m3s− 1 to 0.603
m3s− 1 for Ili‘ili‘ula Stream, from 0.040 m3s− 1 to 0.374 m3s− 1 for Wai­
koko Stream and from 0.181 m3s− 1 to 1.317 m3s− 1 for Waiahi Stream
(Fig. 4). Over this same period, monthly coefficient of variation ranged
from 0.484 to 6.254 for Wai‘ale‘ale Stream, from 0.475 to 5.551 for
Ili‘ili‘ula Stream, from 0.484 to 5.378 for Waikoko Stream, and from
0.551 to 6.054 for Waiahi Stream.
3.3. Seasonal trends in streamflow characteristics
3.4. Total water available for hydropower
Daily mean ditch flows using modeled streamflow were not statisti­
cally different from observed ditch flows between 1995 and 2002 (U =
3772776, p = 0.23). Low flow (Q90) was approximately 60 % of median
ditch flow for both observed and modeled values (Table 6). Below the
contribution from Ili‘ili‘ula Stream to the ditch, one standard deviation
above modeled mean total ditch flow (1.23 m3s− 1) was also consistent
with estimates of maximum penstock capacity of approximately 1.10
m3s− 1 (KIUC, pers. comm).
3.5. Environmental flows and water available for hydropower
Water available for hydropower under various e-flow scenarios from
each tributary is provided in Table 7. The most protective e-flow sce­
nario resulted in no water available for hydropower during very low-
flow conditions (<Q90) but still approximately 1.1 m3s− 1 of water
available for hydropower at mean flow and 0.57 m3s− 1 at Q50.

In some water years, there was little difference in mean seasonal

4. Discussion
flow, and dry season flow occasionally exceeded wet season flow
(Fig. 5). Modeled flow underestimated observed wet season MDF at
Run-of-river hydropower can utilize relatively small amounts of
USGS 16068000 by 31 %, but only underestimated observed dry season
water taken collectively at high elevations to generate power using steep
MDF by 11 %. In the headwater streams, MDF was 10–40 % less in the
topographic gradients naturally found in the landscape. Such a system
dry season than the wet season, while BFQ50 did not vary much between
often combines diverted water from several smaller streams before the
seasons (Table 5). Compared to the wet season, mean daily flow in the
cumulative flow enters a forebay. However, dewatering streams can
dry season declined the most in Waikoko (12.0 %), followed by Ili‘ili‘ula
affect the viability of native aquatic biota, aesthetic and recreational
(9.7 %), Wai‘ale‘ale (9.6 %), and Waiahi (9.6 %). In some tributaries, the
uses, and traditional and customary practices that take place down­
L14d flow was lower in the wet season than the dry season, further
stream (Rosero-Lópex et al., 2020; Strauch et al., 2022). Improved un­
reinforcing the unpredictability of low flow conditions.
derstanding of the temporal and spatial variability of surface water is
critical for making water management decisions and reliable data are

Fig. 3. Modeled mean annual flow (top) (m3s− 1) and mean annual baseflow (bottom) from 1995 to 2014 for four headwater streams in Wailua, Kaua‘i.

6
A.M. Strauch et al. Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287

Fig. 4. Monthly minimum flow (m3s− 1) from 1995 to 2014 for four headwater streams in Wailua, Kaua‘i.

Fig. 5. Mean wet (November to April) and dry (May to October) season streamflow for three headwater tributaries by water year. (note: water year 2014 only
includes Oct to Dec 2014 data).

needed to evaluate the implications of water management decisions on
downstream flows (Strauch, 2020). Modeled estimates of streamflow for
headwater streams can be used to characterize flow regimes, understand
the consequences of flow restoration to downstream reaches, and the
availability of water for hydropower.
4.1. Challenges with modeling tropical watersheds
Hydrological models provide important insights for managing water
resources when there is a lack of reliable data. However, large variations
in rainfall (Frazier et al., 2018; Timm & Diaz, 2009; Tomasella et al.,
2008), solar radiation (Longman et al., 2014), evapotranspiration
(Giambelluca et al., 2014), cloud water interception (Juvik & Nullet,

7
A.M. Strauch et al. Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287

Table 5
Wet (November to April) and dry (May to October) seasonal low-flow characteristics (m3s− 1) for observed and modeled locations from 1995 to 2014 in Wailua, Kaua‘i.
[MDF = mean daily flow; Y = yield (mm); L14d = lowest 14-day mean flow; CV = coefficient of variation; BFQ50 = median base flow].
Wet Season

location MDF Q50 Q70 Q90 Q95 Q99 L14d CV BFQ50

USGS 16068000 observed 1.537 0.838 0.637 0.432 0.379 0.297 0.263 1.147 0.590
USGS 16068000 modeled 1.194 0.839 0.602 0.401 0.319 0.236 0.224 0.814 0.570
Wai‘ale‘ale 0.759 0.485 0.378 0.267 0.210 0.134 0.099 1.041 0.400
Waikoko 0.393 0.255 0.182 0.116 0.088 0.064 0.045 0.976 0.190
Ili‘ili‘ula 0.641 0.414 0.296 0.192 0.145 0.102 0.073 0.960 0.330
Waiahi 1.337 1.007 0.748 0.483 0.368 0.247 0.197 0.779 0.790
NF Wailua at 198 m 0.891 0.694 0.524 0.337 0.266 0.199 0.147 0.826 0.510
Dry Season

location MDF Q50 Q70 Q90 Q95 Q99 L14d CV BFQ50

USGS 16068000 observed 0.948 0.680 0.547 0.419 0.371 0.314 0.288 1.708 0.740
USGS 16068000 modeled 0.855 0.672 0.529 0.383 0.325 0.266 0.249 1.624 0.700
Wai‘ale‘ale 0.686 0.497 0.369 0.281 0.250 0.193 0.141 1.331 0.420
Waikoko 0.346 0.259 0.186 0.122 0.104 0.080 0.068 1.323 0.200
Ili‘ili‘ula 0.579 0.438 0.318 0.209 0.181 0.130 0.109 1.295 0.330
Waiahi 1.208 1.005 0.769 0.532 0.458 0.338 0.253 1.061 0.830
NF Wailua at 198 m 0.789 0.640 0.465 0.339 0.298 0.244 0.206 1.096 0.580

1995), and underlying geology (Gingerich, 1999) add complexity to

Table 6 modeling watershed hydrology in the tropics (Cuo et al., 2006; Strauch
Low-flow (m3s− 1) duration characteristics for the North Wailua Ditch below
et al., 2017). This is especially true on young volcanic islands where
Waikoko Stream diversion at USGS 16061200 and the modeled combined flow
stream channel incision dissects varied geology that influences
of Wai‘ale‘ale and Waikoko Streams from 01 Jan 1995 to 29 Sept 2002; total
modeled ditch flow based on the contributions of the three main headwater groundwater-surface water interactions and where daily rainfall is both
tributaries from 01 Jan 1995 to 29 Sept 2002. extremely variable and unpredictable (Gingerich & Engott, 2012).
Rainfall-driven runoff events dominate surface flow of low-order trop­
USGS 16061200 North Wailua North Wailua Ditch at
Ditch below Waikoko Stream penstock
ical streams, with frequent extreme events driving steep changes in
Intake hydrographs (Craig, 2003), while simultaneously, the underlying hy­
parameter modeled flow observed flow total modeled flow
drogeology drives important groundwater contributions to base flows
(Bassiouni and Oki, 2012).
Mean (±SD) 0.583 0.586 0.876 (±0.358)
In this application, the SWAT model accurately depicted saturation-
flow (±0.358) (±0.150)
Q50 0.553 0.595 0.806 excess runoff, which is ideal for wet tropical forests as both soil satu­
Q70 0.464 0.530 0.644 ration and shallow groundwater saturation leads to the generation of
Q90 0.319 0.396 0.405 faster surface runoff. Use of a physically-based model has certain ad­
Q99 0.174 0.157 0.216 vantages over previously developed hydrologic models, especially in
[SD = standard deviation]. heterogeneous tropical environments (Akoko et al., 2021). However, the
SWAT model consistently under-predicted peak discharge of storm
events and over-predicted the recession limb of the hydrograph. This is
not unusual, as hydrologic models often have issues with predicting

Table 7
Water available for hydropower for various flow regime values (m3s− 1) and potential instream flow standard scenarios: 20 % of median baseflow (20 %BFQ50); 64 % of
median baseflow (64 %BFQ50); 100 % of median baseflow (100 %BFQ50) for three headwater streams in Wailua, Kauai. [MDF = mean daily flow; L14d = lowest 14-day
mean flow; BFQ50 = median base flow].
stream flow characteristic

Wai‘ale‘ale MDF Q50 Q70 Q90 Q95 Q99 L14d BFQ50

Natural flow 0.722 0.491 0.373 0.275 0.232 0.156 0.099 0.410
20 %BFQ50 0.640 0.409 0.291 0.193 0.150 0.074 0.017 0.328
50 %BFQ50 0.517 0.286 0.168 0.070 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.205
64 %BFQ50 0.460 0.228 0.111 0.012 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.148
Waikoko MDF Q50 Q70 Q90 Q95 Q99 L14d BFQ50
Natural flow 0.369 0.256 0.184 0.120 0.098 0.070 0.045 0.200
20 %BFQ50 0.329 0.216 0.144 0.080 0.058 0.030 0.005 0.160
50 %BFQ50 0.269 0.156 0.084 0.020 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.100
64 %BFQ50 0.241 0.128 0.056 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.072
Ili‘ili‘ula MDF Q50 Q70 Q90 Q95 Q99 L14d BFQ50
Natural flow 0.610 0.429 0.306 0.202 0.165 0.112 0.073 0.330
20 %BFQ50 0.544 0.363 0.240 0.136 0.099 0.046 0.007 0.264
50 %BFQ50 0.445 0.264 0.141 0.037 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.165
64 %BFQ50 0.399 0.217 0.095 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.119
Waiahi MDF Q50 Q70 Q90 Q95 Q99 L14d BFQ50
Natural flow 1.272 1.006 0.760 0.512 0.416 0.285 0.197 0.810
20 %BFQ50 1.110 0.844 0.598 0.350 0.254 0.123 0.035 0.648
50 %BFQ50 0.867 0.601 0.355 0.107 0.011 0.000 0.000 0.405
64 %BFQ50 0.753 0.488 0.242 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.292

8
A.M. Strauch et al.
runoff flow conditions (Cuo et al., 2006; Strauch et al., 2017). This is
expected to occur in steep gradient watersheds where rainfall at daily
time steps is not likely to be representative of real-world conditions in
the tropics (Biasutti and Yuter, 2013). Daily rainfall under-represents
the intensity of sub-daily rainfall and hydrological models will regu­
larly under predict the recession limb of the hydrograph (Cuo et al.,
2006).
In places with limited data and access, hydrological modeling can
provide useful information that would otherwise not exist for meeting
resource management decisions. The accuracy of hydrological model
outputs largely relies on the certainty of rainfall data (Guan et al., 2020).
The accuracy of rainfall estimates is critical to determine the amount
and timing of runoff, but the spatial distribution of rainfall stations in
the tropics is often poor (Wohl et al., 2012; Longman et al., 2018). High-
resolution daily rainfall products will improve the calibration of models
to characterize streamflow regimes in data scarce regions in the tropics
where a lack of sufficient monitoring of hydrological processes has
limited the development of e-flows (Wohl et al., 2012; Hairan et al.,
2021). Compared to rainfall data derived from a single station within the
watershed, the gridded daily rainfall product increased the accuracy of
model output from not satisfactory to good. Such high-resolution data
reduces the inaccuracies associated with various methods for estimating
rainfall across highly varied topography using point data at widely
dispersed rainfall stations (Mair and Fares, 2011).
Other methods may be utilized to estimate low-flow duration char­
acteristics (Vogel and Kroll, 1991). For example, Cheng (2020) used the
Maintenance of Variance.1 model to estimate low-flow duration
streamflow values in Southeast Kaua‘i and compared to the results
presented here, estimated Q50 as 0.736 m3s− 1 (43.4 % more), 0.210
m3s− 1 (19.2 % less), and 0.311 m3s− 1 (28 % less), for Wai‘aleale, Wai­
koko, and Ili‘ili‘ula, respectively, and Q90 as 0.510 m3s− 1 (88.9 % more),
0.079 m3s− 1 (31.3 % less), 0.224 m3s− 1 (14.9 % more), respectively.
Generating daily flow values through hydrologic modeling at multiple
sub-basins simultaneously has additional advantages for understanding
the natural flow regime.
4.2. Low-flow characteristics across headwater basins
Accurate estimates of flow regimes at existing or proposed stream
diversions are critical to determining appropriate e-flows or for evalu­
ating the economics of water infrastructure, such as new dams or
municipal water sources. Variability in rainfall in the humid tropics has
amplified consequences for runoff and surface flow (Mair and Fares,
2010), especially in headwater streams where rapid changes in elevation
and aspect influence orographic rainfall (Cao et al., 2007; Christian
et al., 2019). Further, groundwater contributions to surface flow from
saturated geologic features may contribute substantially to flow re­
gimes. At higher elevation tributaries, base flow yield was greatest in
Waiahi stream followed by the Wai‘ale‘ale stream. By contrast, at a
lower elevation (USGS 16063000), the stream cuts through the thickly
saturated geology of the Kōloa Volcanic Series, influencing surface
water-ground water interactions (Izuka et al., 2015; Izuka & Gingerich,
1998). Overall, this complexity reflects the much older substrate age,
stream channel incision, and erosion of the Wailua watershed relative to
younger volcanic islands where runoff contributes a greater proportion
to MDF (Strauch et al., 2015).
4.3. Estimating the availability of water for hydropower
Hydropower is becoming an increasingly important component of
the energy portfolios of islands due to the high cost of importing fossil
fuels and the need for more carbon–neutral energy generation strategies
(Kuang et al., 2016; Shukrullah and Naz, 2021). For run-of-river hy­
dropower, quantifying the availability of base flows in streams is critical
for determining the appropriate size of infrastructure. Since reservoirs
are not involved, the quantification of flow regimes, is critical for
9
Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287
making sound management decisions. Flow from Wai‘ale‘ale, Waikoko,
ʻIliʻiliʻula, and Waiahi headwater streams each contribute water for run-
of-river hydropower. In this study, there was much agreement between
modeled and observed ditch flows at USGS 16061200 from 1995 to
2002. Total modeled flow available at the penstock of the Upper Waiahi
Hydropower plant also closely agreed with data from 1936 to 1938 re­
ported by Lı̄hu‘e Plantation with respect to Q50 (0.826 m3s− 1), but not
Q90 (0.772 m3s− 1) (Territorial Planning Board, 1939). By identifying the
amount of water that can be reasonably obtained to generate hydro­
power, accurate estimates of the consequences of e-flows can be made.
In addition to highly variable rainfall at daily intervals, the season­
ality and interannual variability of rainfall in the humid tropics com­
plicates the utilization of water resources (Strauch, 2020). Diaz &
Giambelluca (2012) found that typical dry season (May–October) con­
ditions have a characteristic pattern across time scales in Hawai‘i: drier
than normal periods have a strengthening of the trade winds to the south
of the islands; while conversely, wetter than normal periods have
generally weaker trades to the south with a tendency for southwesterly
storms. The inconsistency and unpredictability of rainfall suggests that
management decisions focus on investments in infrastructure that cap­
ture larger runoff events for peak power production. While there were
clear patterns in surface flow between seasons, reflecting the general
increase in water availability during the wet season, seasonality was not
always apparent, and runoff events often occurred throughout the year.
Extreme low-flow conditions were often lower in the wet season than the
dry season, further reinforcing the unpredictability rainfall (Feng et al.,
2013).
4.4. Predicting surface water availability to support resource management
decisions in a changing climate
Climate change adds additional uncertainty to predicting water
availability for off-stream use in the tropics, especially in regions ex­
pected to experience shifts in the distribution of rainfall (Timm et al.,
2015; Milly et al., 2005). Predicted increases in air and ocean temper­
atures for the eastern Pacific Region (Ruosteenoja et al., 2003), coupled
with localized decreases in rainfall (Mimura et al., 2007; Timm and Diaz,
2009) are expected to affect seasonal patterns in precipitation (Mora
et al., 2015; Timm et al., 2013). There has been a consistent downward
trend in total rainfall coupled with an increase in drought probability for
most of Hawai‘i, which makes estimation of low-flow characteristics
more urgent (Chu et al., 2010). Further, downscaling projections for
Hawai‘i suggest 5 to 40 % future declines in rainfall depending on the
season, climate scenario, and island, with a growing contrast between
windward and leeward regions (Timm et al., 2015). The impact of water
available for off-stream uses (e.g., agriculture, hydropower, drinking
water supply) is most critical under drought conditions, when proposed
e-flows will have the greatest impact. Clarifying the consequences of
e-flow establishment is critical to effectively balance resource manage­
ment (Strauch, 2020).
Climate change is compounding water resource problems by exas­
perating extreme rainfall and drought events, increasing the unpre­
dictability of flow regimes. In Hawai‘i, as much as 70 % of the year
experiences subsidence inversion between 1200 m and 2400 m above
sea level, reducing the vertical movement of trade winds (Blumenstock
and Price, 1967). This contributes to the spatial distribution of localized
climate, specifically the elevation band of the fog drip zone (usually
1200–1800 m) and the transition zone (usually 1800–2400 m), both of
which contribute to the water budget (Giambelluca and Nullet, 1991).
The strength and frequency of the trade wind inversion has shifted with
climate change, resulting in an average decline in rainfall of 6 % in the
dry season and 31 % in the wet season at higher elevations (Longman
et al., 2015). Long-term declines in rainfall and fog drip are expected to
reduce groundwater recharge and have been attributed to subsequent
declines in stream baseflows, making estimates of water available for
off-stream use based on historic records challenging (Bassiouni & Oki,
A.M. Strauch et al.
2012). In three of the four headwater tributaries, we observed declines
in mean annual flow and mean annual baseflow for the 1995–2014
period (supplemental Fig. 3). Shifts in the seasonality of rainfall gener­
ally reflect larger scale patterns in ocean circulation (e.g., Pacific
Decadal Oscillation, El Nino Southern Oscillation, Southern Oscillation
Index). The use of high-resolution data inputs can greatly improve hy­
drologic modeling by better characterizing rainfall inputs (Biasutti and
Yuter, 2013; Yi et al., 2021). Temporally and spatially coarse rainfall
inputs limit the usefulness of modeling for small, highly heterogeneous
catchments, especially in the tropics (Tomlinson and De Carlo, 2003;
Strauch et al., 2017). In comparison to model outputs when rainfall was
represented by a single station, model uncertainty was greatly reduced
with the higher resolution rainfall data.
4.5. Complexities involved with the implementation of environmental
flows
Freshwater resources are increasingly threatened by groundwater
and surface water extraction, often with little regard to freshwater
ecosystems (Cooke et al., 2022). Accurate estimates of flow regimes for
headwater streams can be used to implement e-flows that improve
protection of aquatic communities (Acreman, 2016). Environmental
flows are necessary to protect instream values, however, the extent to
which any particular flow regime meets the recognized need for an e-
flow is not always quantified. For example, Gingerich and Wolf (2005)
estimated the flow needed to provide sufficient habitat downstream of
low-head dams on Maui Island, but minimum flows do not necessarily
equate to idealized habitat conditions that support all stages of aquatic
life cycles. For amphidromous species in Hawai‘i, sufficient habitat may
be found at elevations below dams due to groundwater gains in
streamflow, but reproduction may be dependent on the frequency of
freshet events, which may be muted by upstream diversions (Gingerich
and Wolff, 2005). Further, additional flow releases to support floodplain
connectivity or estuary health may improve recruitment of stream fauna
to nearshore environments (Jakubínský et al., 2021). While hydrological
connectivity may improve the movement of species among habitats, a
singular e-flow value may not be sufficient to meet the behavioral needs
of all biota (Arantes et al., 2019). Enhancements in hydrological and
ecological monitoring are likely to support improved management of
water resources, especially in remote tropical islands (Dobriyal et al.,
2017).
In past decisions, the State of Hawai‘i has established instream flow
standards that are designed to (1) connect upstream and downstream
habitat (estimated at 20 % of BFQ50) or (2) protect 90 % of instream
habitat (estimated at 64 % of BFQ50). The implementation of these
scenarios can be applied to each stream’s respective time-series data to
examine the availability of water for hydropower. The consequences are
particularly noteworthy under low-flow situations, which are expected
to become more frequent and severe due based on trends in drought
(Frazier et al., 2022).
5. Conclusion
Managing for the continued capacity of tropical landscapes to pro­
vide water for terrestrial, aquatic, and near-shore environments is a
natural resource challenge for island systems due to the high variability
in elevation, slope, aspect, geology, and rainfall across relatively small
catchments and aquifers. Run-of-river hydropower can provide renew­
able energy without the need for large reservoirs. Investments in hy­
dropower in tropical islands to reduce dependence on imported fossil
fuels is challenging due to the uncertainty of water supply. Further,
water resource management decisions are often constrained by a lack of
hydrological data, which may be alleviated with improved modeling
efforts. We used hydrologic modeling to estimate flow regimes in remote
locations that lack long-term continuous records to improve the man­
agement and utilization of water resources. Equitable management of
10
Journal of Hydrology 636 (2024) 131287
resources depends on confidence in the consequences of management
decisions. The availability of high-resolution rainfall and temperature
data reduced model uncertainty, fulfilling a critical gap in data avail­
ability needed to make reasonable management decisions to provide for
both environmental flows and hydropower production.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Ayron M. Strauch: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Funding
acquisition, Methodology, Project administration, Visualization,
Writing – original draft, Writing – review & editing. Yu-Fen Huang:
Data curation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Writing – review &
editing. Yin-Phan Tsang: Conceptualization, Investigation, Project
administration, Resources, Supervision, Validation, Writing – review &
editing.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
Data will be made available on request.
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the University of Hawai‘i Department of Natural
Resources and Environmental Management and the State of Hawai‘i
Commission on Water Resource Management for providing support to
the authors.
Appendix A. Supplementary data
Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.
org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.131287.
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