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Effect Of Climate Change ( Iv) On Agriculture(Dv) In Baki District(,T-A) Somaliland

CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION

BACGROUND STUDY

Climate change is significantly acknowledged as shortcomings in global prosperity

in human development. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007), note

that the rise in climate changes indeed affect the growth of humanity in terms of social,

economic and human welfare of various countries since the world‟s economies are

connected via trade and capital flows. The notion that atmosphere knows no boundaries

makes international cooperation to curb greenhouse gases essential to ensure prosperity for

human and economic development.

Combating climate changes has become one of the key global development priorities.

The institutional framework for such cooperation is provided by the 1992 United Nations

Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which became operational ten years

ago and was known as Kyoto Protocol in1997. The Protocol is one of the most complex

treaties ever negotiated (UNFCCC, 2015). During the conference, some legally binding

targets for the world‟s wealthier countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions were agreed

upon. These targets could be achieved through domestic efforts of each individual country.

The greenhouse gases (GHG) could also be reduced through some flexible mechanisms

which were set out such as joint implementation (JI), the Clean Development Mechanism

(CDM), and international emissions trading (IET), IPCC (2015). Geographically, emissions

of GHG is environmentally irrelevant, combating climatic change need to take into account

cross countries by taking credit for overseas actions that curb GHG emissions at source or

enhance the removal of GHGs by sinks (Rechard, 2009).

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Although there are other political, economic, social and ethical reasons at the global level for

preferring domestic action, the most remarkable aspects of the Protocol is how

implementation of its mechanisms is proceeding rapidly around the world, prior to its formal

entry into force. The scheme have been implemented in over 50 developing nations of the

World and in 25 countries in Europe and most developing nations in South East Asia and

Africa in general. Asia countries were at higher risk that may slow down implementation of

sustainable development policies, which is a tool for prosperity in the regions. If climate

change would be worse, then it is good for all to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as noted

by IPCC (2015). Agreement or rules on emissions need to be put in place, so that actions by

individual firms, cities or nations are adequate.

Population in developing countries‟ is expected to increase by around 2.4 billion by 2050. In

these developing countries agriculture is the main source of employment and income to the

majority. 20 per cent of the populations are food insecure and 75 per cent of the World

populations live in rural areas where agriculture is the main source of their livelihood

Lipper, Campell and Thorntonn (2014). Global projections puts it that agricultural

production need to be increased by 60 per cent in 2050 to meet high demand of food and this

need to come from agricultural production increment. Climate change already interferes with

agricultural productivity IPCC (2015), crop production is affect the most in most developing

nations with negative effects greater than positive effects. Climate change has already

reduced crop production by 4.7 per cent and it is expected to experience a steep decrease if

temperatures exceed the critical physiological thresholds

Climatic change is a public good, therefore, requiring comprehensive action to deal with.

Causes of climate change are found to be the natural greenhouse effect due to high carbon
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dioxide concentration in the atmosphere, Wheel and Braun (2013). Accumulation of too

much carbon dioxide in atmosphere reduces ozone layer allowing infrared rays of the sun to

infiltrate resulting to global warming which subsequently leads to climate change.

Climate change is an externality that agricultural production of the world faces such that

current decisions made by agents influence future welfare of individuals in the future

periods, Sanders and Islam (2007). Externality is a global environmental issue that has a cost

to be incurred by everyone and all nations including those that do not contribute to its effect

through the decisions made currently which results to changes in state variables such as the

atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, water availability and specimen richness.

Stern (2009), says that efficient allocation of resources with global externalities require

cooperation by independent countries over a long period of time involving various cohorts of

decision-making. Failure to address these issues results to devastating effect on the economy

of any particular nation. In case of climate change, IPCC said that continues emissions of

greenhouse gases (GHGs) would possibly results to global warming over the subsequent

years with possibility of large degradation on the world economy (IPCC, 2007).

There is consensus that climate change is a serious issue in Sub-Sahara Africa and in fact the

greatest problem during the 21st century, together with poverty, Wario (2012). Development

projections in Africa proportionately affected by climate change as most countries in Africa

are composed of undiversified economic structures, poor infrastructural facilities, weak

governance institutions and structures, low human development and more so the countries

heavily rely on agriculture to feed most of their population (Akram, 2012).

Consequences of climate change are threat to productivity which is a key ingredient of

development and poverty reduction, Nkonde (2014). Africa‟s growth aspirations and
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reduction in poverty are directly affected by changes in the climatic conditions which are

evident through changes in water availability, biodiversity loss, agricultural yields loss or

decline, floods and droughts which are humanitarian disasters, weakened infrastructural

facilities, inadequate political goodwill due to scramble over the scarce resources, increased

incidence and prevalence of vector-borne diseases (Mburu, Kungu and muriuki, 2015).

Productivity in Africa is affected by climatic conditions, Bozzola (2014), agriculture being the

back born of livelihood to many poor Africans. It also has diverse effects on tourism which is the

main source of foreign exchange earner and factors of productive such as land, labour and capital.

Adverse effect of climate change poses a major threat to human security and political stability

since there is frequent movement experienced which could results to civil conflicts if not checked

(McGeehin and Maria, 2001).

Changes in climatic conditions will reduce growth by drawing resources away from

development through taxing individuals, firms and government institutions. Further

existence of climate shocks of larger magnitude will enormously affect economic growth of

Africa and lock many Africa countries in poverty traps, Frankhause (2010). In order to

achieve sustainable growth, poverty reduction, and attainment of other development goals,

then African countries need to expand their energy, agriculture and industrial production.

The question is how can these development goals be achieved without exacerbating the

problem of climate change? For growth and prosperity to be achieved then climate change

must be affected, Stern (2007). Africa will soon realize emissions of carbon dioxide grow

daily, however, high carbon growth path is unsustainable, therefore, a robust decision-

making and a long-term planning that take into account a wide range of climate and socio-

economic scenarios and adoption climate-smart policies that enhance development in Africa,
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this would help reduce vulnerability and finance the transition to low carbon growth path

(Lindzen and Choi, 2010).

climate change that are quite familiar are the anthropogenic or man-made global

warming, or Anthropogenic or Man-Made Global Warming (AGW). The theory

holds that the main cause of global warming is man-made greenhouse gases such

as carbon dioxide which occurred 50 years ago (Bast, 2013). These gases cause a

catastrophic rise in temperature which is commonly referred to as enhanced

greenhouse effect or the theory of anthropogenic global warming. Energy from the

sun travels and reaches the Earth‟s surface through its transparent atmosphere to

the surface of the earth where some of it is absorbed and some is reflected back as

heat into the atmosphere. The reflected heat is absorbed by the GHGs resulting in

the Earth's atmosphere becoming warmer than it otherwise could have been. The

proponents of this theory hold that over 0.7 0C global warming for the past century

and over 0.50C for the last 30 years had been attributed to GHGs which are man-

made and rejected the claim that it could be as a result of recovery from Ice Age.

The computer models used in the theory to postulate future GHGs level predicted

that doubling the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere would make the

Earth‟s temperature to rise further. The model also predicts that more warming

would be experienced at the tropics due to warming of the troposphere than the

level that has been observed by the satellites and radiosonde measurements. It is

argued in the theory that man-made carbon dioxide is the main contributor of

severe weather, oceanic coral bleaching, crop failures, species extinctions, floods,
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droughts, famines and spread of diseases while the study determine the effect of

climate change on agricultural production.

The study also analyzed the effect of other variable on agricultural productivity in

in baki. According to the regression results in both cases, irrigation with a constant

term of 0.233798 is positive and significance at 5 per with cent p value of 0.0170,

this shows that irrigation has a positive effect on agricultural productivity. This

means that 1 per cent change in irrigation cause 23.38 per cent increase in

agricultural productivity. The finding is in agreement with the findings by Lee, De

Goyze and Six (2009). This is because per acreage land irrigated, soil water would

increase likewise to crop water and also livestock would have fresh and nutritious

grass and nippier grass to feed on thereby increase production in overall

agriculture.

The study also evaluated the effect of carbon dioxide on agricultural productivity.

Carbon dioxide was found to have a negative but insignificant effect on

agricultural productivity with a coefficient of -0.343812 and probability of 0.2453.

Input price was found to be insignificance but had a positive relationship with

agricultural productivity with a coefficient of 0.155880 and a probability of

0.2122. The result was expected to have a negative relationship and significance at

5 per cent level

2 Objectives of the Study

The general objective of the study is to determine the effect of climate change on agricultural

productivity. The specific objectives of the study are;

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1.To determine the effect of climate change on agricultural crop production in baki district.

2.To investigate the effect of climate change on livestock production in baki district.

.3 Research Questions

The study will seek to respond to the following questions;

1 .What is the effect of climate change on Agricultural crop production in baki district?

2 .What is the effect of climate change on livestock production in baki district?

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