VALUSTRAT.

COM
Dubai, UAE
Real Estate Research
First Quarter 2024

DUBAI
Q1/‘24
This quarterly report
contains research on
Dubai’s residential, office,
retail, hospitality and
industrial real estate
markets. VALUSTRAT.COM
Table of 04
Contents
Overview
Real Estate Performance and Key Indicators
Macro-Economic Snapshot
Dubai Consumer Price Index

07
Residential Market
VPI - Residential Capital Values
16
Office Market
VPI - Office Capital Values
VPI - Prime Residential Capital Values Office Supply
VPI - Residential Rental Values Office Sales Transactions
Residential Rents Office Asking Rents
Residential Supply
Residential Sales Transactions
Mortgage Transactions

20
Retail Market
Retail Supply
22
Hospitality Market
Hospitality Supply
Retail Performance Hospitality Performance

24
Industrial Market
VPI - Industrial Logistics Capital Values
26
About Us
ValuStrat in the Media
Industrial Investment/Supply VPI Subscription

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24

Foreward

During the first quarter of 2024 the Dubai real estate market witnessed
significant growth across its residential and commercial sectors, as
indicated by the latest data from the ValuStrat Price Index (VPI).

In the residential segment, the VPI for capital values surged by 6.4%
quarterly and 24.7% annually, reaching 167.5 points, compared to the base
of 100 points in Q1 2021. This growth was driven by a 5.7% quarterly and
20.1% annual increase in apartment valuations, propelled mainly by
Haider Tuaima mid-affordable communities. Villas remained resilient, achieving 211 points
Director & Head of Real with a yearly increase of 29.6%, reaching a 10-year high in prime villa
Estate Research values.

Moreover, the office sector witnessed a remarkable upswing, with office

unit valuations soaring by 29.9% annually, reflecting sustained demand for
premium office spaces. The VPI for office capital values reached a record
194.2 points, signaling a robust market. Key business districts like DIFC,
Jumeirah Lake Towers, and Business Bay witnessed significant annual
growth, underscoring Dubai's status as a regional business hub.

In the industrial market, the VPI for Dubai Industrial capital values reached
135 points, registering a 15% annual and 3.5% quarterly increase in
logistical warehouses. This growth reflects the resilience and adaptability of
Dubai's industrial sector, which continues to attract investment and expand
its footprint.

The robust performance of the real estate market is further underscored by

strong rental growth across all segments. Residential asking rents surged
by 11.7% annually, with villa rentals rising by 6.1% annually and apartment
rents growing by 16.4% yearly.

In conclusion, the latest data from the ValuStrat Price Index highlights the
strength and dynamism of Dubai's real estate market. With steady growth
across residential, office, and industrial sectors, Dubai continues to attract
investors and businesses, positioning itself as a premier destination for real
estate investment in the region.

Warmest regards,
Haider

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.03

Real Estate Perfomance
SOURCE: VALUSTRAT

VPI

Residential Capital Values Office Capital Values Industrial Capital Values

167.5
BASE: Q1 2021 = 100
194.2
BASE: Q1 2021 = 100
135.0
BASE: Q1 2021 = 100

6.4% 4.3% 3.5%

Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Key Indicators
SOURCE: REIDIN, DET, VALUSTRAT

Residential

Sales Ticket Size Sales Volume Asking Rents

2.54M
AED
33,263 130,355
TRANSACTIONS (AED / P.A)

-12.8% 29.7% 3.0%

Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Office

Sales Ticket Size Sales Volume Asking Rents

2.17M
AED
579
TRANSACTIONS
1,612
(AED / SQ M / P.A)

13.1% -13.5% 10.9%

Q-o-Q Q-o-Q Q-o-Q

Hotel

Occupancy ADR RevPAR

87.1%
YTD FEB 2024
664
(AED) YTD FEB 2024
578
(AED) YTD FEB 2024

2.7% 9.0% 12.5%

Y-o-Y Y-o-Y Y-o-Y

INCREASE NO CHANGE DECLINE

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.04

Macro Economic
Snapshot

• The Central Bank of UAE expects the country's Dubai Population

GDP to rise by 4.2% in 2024, with a further
acceleration to 5.2% anticipated in 2025 2018

• According to S&P Global, Dubai is forecasted to

maintain robust momentum in the hospitality,
3,192,000
wholesale and retail, and financial services
sectors, fuelling growth throughout 2024-2025 2019

• As per the United Nations Conference on trade

and Development (UNCTAD), the UAE has
3,356,000
ranked second globally for greenfield FDI in
2023, with a 28% increase in project
2020
announcements. This underscores the UAE's
status as a prime choice for major corporations
seeking to establish subsidiaries in fresh
3,411,000
markets
2021
• UAE’s non-oil trade reached AED 3.5 trillion in
2023
3,478,000
• Dubai crude oil (Fateh) stood at AED 318.4
(USD 86.6) per barrel, up 10.7% YoY as of March
2022
2024

• Dubai’s population stood at 3.68 million during 3,550,000

the first quarter of 2024

• Announcing its highest influx of new member 2023

companies yet, the Dubai Chamber of

Commerce reported a surge of 20%, totaling 3,655,000
67,222 members in 2023
2024-Q1
• According to a Reuters poll, the UAE's economy,
anticipated to demonstrate strong growth in
non-oil domains, was projected to expand by
3,681,000
4% in 2024, marking an improvement from the
3.8% predicted in January
SOURCE: DUBAI STATISTICS CENTRE

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.05

Consumer Price Index
Annual Change

6.3% 6.3%
6.1% 6.1% 6.2%
6.0% 6.1% 6.1%
5.4% 5.7% 5.9% 6.1%
5.3%
4.6% 4.9% 4.9%
4.4% 4.3% 4.3%
3.3% 3.8% 3.3% 3.3% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%
3.1%
2.1% 2.3%
1.0%

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR

2023 2024

GENERAL INDEX (2014=100) HOUSING, WATER, ELECTRICITY, GAS AND OTHER FUELS

SOURCE: DUBAI STATISTICS CENTRE

• UAE investments abroad hit USD 2.5 trillion in • The CPI for ‘Housing and Utilities’ expenses
beginning of 2024 grew 6.3% annually

• Dubai’s inflation rate eased slightly to 3.3% in • S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
March, compared to 4.3% in the previous year registered 58.5 in February, an uptick from 56.6
in January, the highest level since May 2019,
indicating a substantial improvement in
operating conditions across the non-oil
economy

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.06

ValuStrat Price Index
Residential Capital Values
Annual Growth

34.1%
29.6%

20.1%

-6.0%

-11.6%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

APARTMENTS (%) VILLA (%) SOURCE: VALUSTRAT

ValuStrat Price Residential Villa Apartment

Index Citywide Citywide Citywide

167.5 211.0 139.2

Base: Jan 2021 = 100 Base: Jan 2021 = 100 Base: Jan 2021 = 100

The ValuStrat Price Index - Residential Capital Values, grew 6.4% quarterly and 24.7% annually to achieve 167.5
points. This is compared with 100 base points as of Q1 2021.

The VPI reveals that the rate of capital gains in the apartment market seemed to be steadily approaching that of
villas. However, unlike villas, apartment values continue to chase price peaks witnessed during the last decade.

Valuations of apartment units saw continued upward momentum, up 5.7% on a quarterly basis and 20.1% when
compared to the same period last year, as mostly mid-affordable communities drove the VPI to another record
expansion, reaching 139.2 points. Top annual performers were Discovery Gardens (32.6%), The Greens (29.8%),
Palm Jumeirah (29%), The Views (24.8%), Town Square (24.5%), Al Quoz Fourth (24.1%), and Dubai Production City
(23.9%).

The villa market remained strong, with capital values achieving 211 VPI points, increasing by 29.6% YoY with a
slightly slower quarterly growth of 7.2%. In Q1 2024, villa valuations grew 7.7% QoQ. The highest annual performers
were Jumeirah Islands (32.2%), Palm Jumeirah (31.9%), Dubai Hills Estate (30.6%), and Mudon (27.2%).

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.07

ValuStrat Price Index
Prime Residential Capital Values
Annual Growth

33.1%

21.6%

DEC
-9.1%

-11.6%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

APARTMENT (%) VILLA (%) SOURCE: VALUSTRAT

ValuStrat Price Residential Villa Apartment

Index Prime Prime Prime

173.0 211.8 149.4

Base: Jan 2021 = 100 Base: Jan 2021 = 100 Base: Jan 2021 = 100

Prices of prime properties in Dubai grew 26.7% YoY and 7.3% QoQ setting a new record of 173 points. This is
compared with 100 base points as of Q1 2021.

Highly desired prime villas reached a new 10-year high of 211.8 points with capital gains of 33.1% YoY and
8.5% QoQ.

Luxury apartments continue catching up with villas, as capital gains leaped 21.6% annually and 6.2% when
compared the previous quarter, to reach 149.4 index points, setting new price records for prime apartments.

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.08

 ValuStrat Price Index
Residential Rental Values
Annual Growth
54.3%

20.8%
16.4%

6.1%
4.0%

DEC

-17.9%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

APARMENT (%) VILLA (%) SOURCE: VALUSTRAT

Apartment Asking Rents Villa Asking Rents SOURCE: REIDIN,

VALUSTRAT

16.4% 4.4% 6.1% 1.3%

LAST YEAR LAST QUARTER LAST YEAR LAST QUARTER

• Residential asking rents jumped 11.7% when • Apartment asking rents grew 16.4% YoY and
compared to the same period last year, and 3% 4.4% QoQ, reaching an average of AED 85,800
since the previous quarter
• Residential occupancy in Dubai was estimated
• Villa rentals rose 1.3% quarterly and 6.1% at 87.7% during the first quarter
annually to an average yearly rent of
AED 403,800

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.09

Residential
Rents
Apartment Average Asking Rent Villa Average Asking Rent

‘000 AED per annum and Yearly Change (%) ‘000 AED per annum and Yearly Change (%)

16.7% 17.1% 14.4% 17.0% 5.4% 9.9% 3.7%

186
499
159
481
119 401
104
82 365
312
70
56
296

48

STUDIO ONE TWO THREE THREE FOUR FIVE

BEDROOM BEDROOM BEDROOM BEDROOM BEDROOM BEDROOM

Q1 2023 Q1 2024 SOURCE: REIDIN, Q1 2023 Q1 2024 SOURCE: REIDIN,

VALUSTRAT VALUSTRAT
AVERAGE YEARLY AVERAGE YEARLY
CHANGE (%) CHANGE (%)

• Average asking rents per annum for apartments were studios at AED 56,000, 1-bed at AED 82,000, 2-beds
at AED 119,000, and 3-beds were AED 186,000

• Average annual rents for villas stood at 3-beds AED 312,000, 4-beds at AED 401,000 and 5-beds at
AED 499,000

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.10

Residential
Supply
*MAY BE SUBJECT TO SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
2021–2025 ADJUSTMENT
‘000 Units

6
27
13 861
34
815 815

782
755

2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E

EXISTING URBAN SOURCE: DUBAI STATISTICS CENTRE,

NEW APARTMENTS* NEW VILLAS*
VILLAS/APARTMENTS REIDIN,MEED PROJECTS, VALUSTRAT

• The estimated number of new build units to enter
the market this year stands at 46,558 homes
• Total estimated completions as of the first quarter
stood at 5,770 apartments and 1,038 villas,
equivalent to 15% of preliminary estimates for the
whole of 2024
• Notable apartment completions during the quarter
included Pearlz Residence by Danube with 300
apartments, Bingathi Heights with 366 houses and
Dubai Creek Edge with 566 properties
• Notable villa completions included Reem
Townhouses with 364 units and Amargo in Damac
Hills 2 with 105 villas

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.11

Residential
Supply
Locations with Upcoming
Residential Supply

18%

44% 14%

7%

6%
5% 6%

DUBAILAND MBR CITY DUBAI SOUTH

BUSINESS BAY JVC OTHERS

JUMEIRAH LAKE TOWERS

SOURCE: REIDIN, VALUSTRAT

• 85,999 apartments and 21,230 villas are currently
under construction with promised handovers by
2028, of these projects 18% are located in
Dubailand and another 14% in Mohammed Bin
Rashid City
• Key off-plan apartment launches included
Kempinski Marina Residences with 453 units, Avant
Garde Residences with 172 homes, Barari Twin
Towers with 1,338 residences, Rosalia Residences
project in Al Furjan with 117 apartments and Bayz10
by Danube with 1,346 properties
• Noteworthy villa and townhouse project launches
during the quarter included Wadi Villas in MBR City
with 30 units, Woodland Residences with 30
properties and Amara in Talal Al Ghaf with 116 villas
• Additional launches include Bay Villas on Dubai
Islands, The Sapphire in Business Bay, Eleve in
Downtown Jebel Ali, Damac Lagoon Views, Habtoor
Grand Residences, Armani Beach Residences, Sky
Residences in Expo City

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.12

Residential
Off-Plan Sales Transactions
Total Volume & Average Price
1,856
1,836
1,792 1,804 1,841
20,973
1,641
1,540 1,570
1,447 1,428
1,400 17,439
1,299
1,258 1,255 16,738
1,187
16,345
15,479

1,169
1,120 13,661
12,860

10,702
10,423
8,486
7,167

6,322
4,766

3,438 3,649
2,915 2,703

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AVERAGE PRICE (AED /SQ FT) VOLUME SOURCE: REIDIN, VALUSTRAT

Off-plan Sales Volume SOURCE: REIDIN,

VALUSTRAT

20.3% 63.1%
LAST YEAR LAST QUARTER

• The average ticket size of off-plan homes rose • Off-plan Oqood (contract) registrations grew by
5.3% annually to AED 2.7 million 20.3% YoY and 63.1% QoQ, equivalent to
investments worth AED 55.3 billion
• The citywide average transacted price for off-plan
properties was AED 19,978 per sq m • Top off-plan locations transacted during the quarter
(AED 1,856 per sq ft) included projects located in Jumeirah Village Circle
(12%), Dubai Maritime City (7.5%) and Business Bay
(6.7%)

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.13

Residential
Ready Sales Transactions
Total Volume & Average Price

1,505
1,385 1,351
1,338 1,337
1,274
1,253
1,205
1,198
1,135
1,075 12,001
1,032 11,501
10,985
10,048 10,793
943 9,668
916 916 8,866 8,792
854
824 7,269
7,028
6,989
6,586
5,813

5,165
3,215 4,089

1,544

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AVERAGE PRICE (AED /SQ FT) VOLUME SOURCE: REIDIN, VALUSTRAT

Ready Sales Volume SOURCE: REIDIN,

VALUSTRAT

14.5% -4.2%
LAST YEAR LAST QUARTER

• Q1 saw 11,501 ready secondary home transactions,
up 14.5% YoY but down 4.2% QoQ, equivalent to
investments worth AED 27 billion
• The average ticket size of ready-to-move-in
properties was stable annually but grew by 11.1%
quarterly, reaching AED 2.4 million
• 38.4% of all ready home sales were priced less
than AED 1 million, compared with 40.2% last year
• There were 55 sales of homes worth over AED 30
million, compared to 53 during the same period
last year
• The citywide average transacted price for ready
units during the quarter was AED 16,200 per
sq m (AED 1,505 per sq ft) up 12.6% YoY, but
lower by 11.5% QoQ
• The average apartment size transacted in the
first quarter was 95.9 sq m (1,032 sq ft), the
average villa area was 293.7 sq m (3,161 sq ft)
• Most transacted locations for ready properties
were Jumeirah Village Circle (9.5%), Business
Bay (8.1%) and Dubai Marina (5.8%)

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.14

Mortgage
Transactions
Mortgage/Cash Sales vs Interest Rates*
Transaction Value (AED Bn)

80
44 5.33%

70

60

21
50

28
40

24 23
31 22 31
30 20
18
15
13 13
14
20 10

16
14
10 12 11 11 11 11 12 13 13
9

0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2021 2022 2023 2024

SOURCE : REIDIN,
MORTGAGE - READY CASH - READY FEDERAL FUNDS RATE MACROTRENDS,
VALUSTRAT
*ALL READY ASSET CLASSES,
EXCLUDING OFF-PLAN TRANSACTIONS

• In the first quarter of 2024, the Dubai real estate market witnessed 7,487 mortgage transactions across all
asset classes compared to 13,869 cash transactions of ready properties

• The total sales value attributed to mortgage transactions stood at AED 16 billion, with cash transactions
totalling AED 28 billion

• The US Federal Open Market Committee has opted to maintain its federal funds interest rate at the current
target range of 5.25% to 5.5%

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.15

ValuStrat Price Index
Office Capital Values
Annual Growth

32.1%

29.9%
25.2% 25.3%

-5.7%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

OFFICE (%) SOURCE: VALUSTRAT

ValuStrat Price Office Grade A Grade B

Index Fitted Fitted

194.2 209.0 169.3

Base: Jan 2021 = 100 Base: Jan 2021 = 100 Base: Jan 2021 = 100

Valuations of office units in Dubai jumped 29.9% annually and 4.3% quarterly, this marked the 12th consecutive
quarter of growth which reflects continued demand for high quality office space within well connected locations
in the city.

The ValuStrat Price Index covering Dubai’s office capital values reached a record 194.2 points, almost double the
100-point base set in Q1 2021.

The weighted average price for office space was AED 15,952 per sq m (AED 1,482 per sq ft). Continued double
digit annual growth was observed in 5 major central business districts in Dubai: DIFC (38.7%), Jumeirah Lake
Towers (36.1%), Business Bay (33.3%), and Barsha Heights (24.2%). Downtown Dubai witnessed the lowest
annual growth of 7.6% with no quarterly change, hitting a possible price ceiling of AED 38,212 per sq m
(AED 3,550 per sq ft).

Prices of Grade A fitted space in Dubai expanded 29.7% annually to achieve 209 VPI points, more than double
the value three years ago. Grade B fitted offerings grew 22.8% YoY to 169.3 points.

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.16

Office
Supply
Million Sq M GLA

0.28 9.84
9.56 9.56
9.53

9.45

2021 2022 2023E 2024E 2025E

EXISTING STOCK EXPECTED SUPPLY SOURCE: MEED PROJECTS, VALUSTRAT

• Based on developer estimates, 284,448 (3.1m • DMCC launched Phase 2 of the Uptown Dubai
sq ft) of GLA is scheduled for completion in project, which is set to add 70,000 sq m
2024 (753,000 sq ft) of Grade A office space to the
commercial offerings within the emirate

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.17

Office
Sales Transactions
Total Volume & Average Price

1,450
1,243
1,205
1,100
1,077
1,006
919 947 896
839 812
622 669
776 743 734 601 607 579
701 670 556
642 549
529 539
514

496
393 357

271 271
220

73

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

AVERAGE PRICE (AED /SQ FT) VOLUME SOURCE: REIDIN, VALUSTRAT

Sales Volume Transacted Prices SOURCE: REIDIN,

VALUSTRAT

-3.7% -13.5% 34.6% 16.7%

LAST YEAR LAST QUARTER LAST YEAR LAST QUARTER

• During the first quarter, office sales fell by 13.5% • The average size of offices sold in Business Bay
QoQ and 3.7% YoY, reaching 579 transactions was 109 sq m (1,175 sq ft) and 120 sq m
(1,290 sq m) in Jumeirah Lake Towers
• The average transacted price stood at
AED 15,608 per sq m (AED 1,450 per sq ft), up • 81,673 sq m (879,121 sq ft) of total GLA (Gross
34.6% annually and 16.7% on a quarterly basis Leasable Area) was sold during the quarter,
amounting to an estimated investment value of
• In terms of sales volume, Business Bay retained more than AED 1.35 billion
its position as the most popular choice for office
sales with a share of approximately 46.8%,
followed by Jumeirah Lake Towers with 33.5% of
transactions this quarter

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.18

Office
Asking Rents
Annual Market Rent Trend
1,612
1,454
1,345
1,220
1,184
1,076
970 1,013
864 969 10.9%
863 918
828 834 835 807 10.0% 10.3%
861 8.1%
5.5%
6.7% 6.6% 6.3%
4.5%
3.0%
0.7% 0.1% 0.1%
0.1%

-3.3%
-4.2%

-5.2%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

MEDIAN OFFICE RENT (AED / SQ M / P.A) SOURCE: REIDIN, VALUSTRAT

Office Median Asking Rents SOURCE: REIDIN,

VALUSTRAT

66.4% 36.2% 19.8% 10.9%

LAST 2 YEARS LAST YEAR LAST 6 MONTHS LAST QUARTER

• The highest office asking rents in a decade were
recorded this quarter, increasing 66.4% in 2
years, 36.2% YoY, with a record quarterly growth
of 10.9% to reach a median annual rent of
AED 1,612 per sq m (AED 150 per sq ft)
• For smaller office areas of less than 93 sq m
(1,000 sq ft), average asking rents were the
highest in Business Bay at AED 2,013 per sq m
(AED 187 per sq ft), followed by Dubai Media City
at AED 1,862 per sq m (AED 173 per sq ft) and
Jumeirah Lake Towers at AED 1,346 per sq m
(AED 125 per sq ft)
• For typically sized units between 93 – 186 sq m
(1,000 – 2,000 sq ft), the highest office asking
rents were observed in Dubai International
Financial Center (DIFC) at AED 2,885 per sq m
(AED 268 per sq ft), Dubai Media City at
AED 1,851 per sq m (AED 172 per sq ft), and
Business Bay at AED 1,722 per sq m (AED 160
per sq ft)
• Office occupancy in Dubai was estimated at
83.6%

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.19

Retail
Supply
Malls & Shopping Centers
('000 SQ M GLA)

139

2,622

46

1,237

554

269

35

CONVENIENCE NEIGHBOURHOOD COMMUNITY REGIONAL SUPER REGIONAL

(<3K SQ M) (3K-10K SQ M) (10K-30K SQ M) (30K-90K SQ M) (> 90K SQ M)

RETAIL COMPLETED RETAIL UNDER CONSTRUCTION SOURCE: REIDIN, VALUSTRAT

• Emaar unveiled Dubai Square in Dubai Creek • Emaar has announced its intentions to expand
Harbour, a premier retail mall spanning a built-up Dubai Mall - further details to follow
area of 750,000 sq m, (8.07 million sq ft)
scheduled for completion in Q1 2027

• Samana Developers has launched the Samana

Retail Park, AED 150 million shopping centre in
Arjan

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.20

Retail
Performance
Number of Malls and Shopping Centres

17
CONVENIENCE
(<3K SQ M)

47
NEIGHBOURHOOD
(3K-10K SQ M)

31
COMMUNITY
(10K-30K SQ M)

23 1
REGIONAL
(30K-90K SQ M)

16 1
SUPER REGIONAL
(> 90K SQ M)

RETAIL COMPLETED RETAIL UNDER CONSTRUCTION SOURCE: DUBAI LAND DEPARTMENT (EJARI), VALUSTRAT

• In 2023, Emaar’s revenue from its mall • MAF witnessed a 17% increase in online sales
operations reached AED 5.8 billion during 2023

• Emaar Properties saw their mall assets achieve
97% occupancy during 2023
• Majid Al Futtaim (MAF) saw its mall assets
achieve 96% average occupancy during 2023
• MAF malls were visited by 230 million people
with footfall increasing by 8.5% YoY
• Dubai Mall became the most visited place in the
world during 2023 with a record 105 million
visitors
• E-commerce is expected to generate revenue of
more than USD 6.7 billion in the UAE during
2024

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.21

Hospitality
Supply
Hotel Room Supply
2021-2025 | ’000 Keys

1.5
3.7 153
150 150
146

140

2021 2022 2023 2024E 2025E

HOTEL AND SERVICED APT ROOMS NEW SUPPLY SOURCE: DET, MEED PROJECTS, VALUSTRAT

• As of February 2024, Dubai had a total • Notable upcoming hotel openings include Vida
of 124,947 hotel rooms and 26,322 hotel Dubai Mall, Mandarin Oriental Wasl Tower, Gran
apartments per the Department of Economy and Melia, Port De La Mer and Rixos Dubai Islands,
Tourism Hotel and Residences

• Notable openings included Hilton Dubai Creek • Arte Museum opened its doors during the first
Hotel & Residences with 180 keys, Biltmore quarter marking Dubai’s first immersive art
Hotel Villas with 20 keys and The Lana with 225 experience
rooms
• There are 14 hotel projects under construction
• Address Dubai Mall and Address Boulevard with 4,983 total keys to be added by 2025
were re-branded to Kempinski Central Avenue
Dubai and Kempinski The Boulevard Dubai
respectively, upon acquisition by Abu Dhabi
National Hotels. Emaar subsequently
re-branded Address Fountain Views in
Downtown Dubai to the Address Dubai Mall

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.22

Hospitality
Performance
Source of Dubai Visitors by Region
YTD FEBRUARY 2024

4%
7% 21%

9%
1%

17%

12%

15%
14%

WESTERN EUROPE RUSSIA, CIS & EASTERN EUROPE AMERICAS

SOUTH ASIA MENA AFRICA

GCC NORTH ASIA & SOUTH EAST ASIA AUSTRALIA

SOURCE: DET

• In 2023, the number of international visitors • Dubai’s top three tourist source markets were
increased by 19.4% YoY, surpassing the Western Europe contributing 21%, countries in
pre-pandemic period by 2.5% South Asia adding 17%, and GCC sharing 15%

• Total international guests stood at 3.67 million as
of YTD February 2024, growing 18.4% compared
to the same period last year
• Hotel occupancy reached 87.1%, rising by
2.7% YoY
• The Average Daily Rate (ADR) was AED 664, up
9% annually, whilst Revenue per Available Room
(RevPAR) grew by 12.5% YoY to AED 578
• Dubai International Airport anticipates its yearly
passenger traffic to reach 93.8 million by 2025
• Average occupancy for holiday homes during
the quarter stood at 52.1% as per AirDNA
• In 2023, Dubai International Airport outpaced its
pre-covid annual passenger traffic, handling
nearly 87 million passengers. This marked a
31.7% annual growth, surpassing the 86.4
million recorded in 2019, as reported by Dubai
Airports

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.23

ValuStrat Price Index
Industrial Logistics Capital Values
Annual Growth

15.4%

5.1%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

INDUSTRIAL (%) SOURCE: VALUSTRAT

• The ValuStrat Price Index - Dubai Industrial
Capital Values reached 135 points, as compared
to Q1 2021 base at 100
• The logistical warehouses VPI recorded 15%
annual and 3.5% quarterly capital gains
• The valuation of a typical logistics warehouse as
of Q1 2024 was AED 2,823 per sq m (AED 262
per sq ft)
• Al Quoz and Umm Ramool continue to lead with
strong growth despite having limited supply of
large units. Keys drivers in price rises include
alternative uses of industrial space and limited
built stock or land for new development
• Industrial property rents increased between
40% and 60%, particularly in Al Quoz, Umm Al
Ramool, Dubai Production City, and Al Qusais

• Best performing locations in terms of annual

price increases were Al Quoz (42%), JAFZA
South (23.9%), and Dubai Investment Park
(12.8%)

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.24

Industrial
Investment/Supply
Industrial Rental Rates
AED / SQ M / P.A

776

604
549
499
431
428
323 323
301

205

JEBEL ALI DUBAI AL QUOZ AL QUSAIS

JEBEL ALI
INDUSTRIAL INVESTMENT
FREE ZONE
FIRST PARK

RENT HIGH RENT LOW SOURCE: VALUSTRAT

• Dubai South and Aldar Properties entered a joint
venture to develop Grade A assets in Dubai. The
first project will be a build-to-lease facility located
in the Dubai South Logistics District, totaling
24,000 sq m (258,334 sq ft) of gross floor area
(GFA)
• JAFZA and Transworld Group to create an logistics
centre spanning over 50,000 sq m (538,195 sq ft)
to cater to the increasing demand for cold and
frozen storage solutions
• FedEx invested USD 350 million in new state of the
art hub at Dubai World Central Airport in Dubai
South, with a built-up area of 72,500 sq m (780,383
sq ft)
• In 2023, UAE's industrial sector contributed
approximately AED 197 billion (USD 53.64 billion)
to GDP, achieving 30% of the Operation 300bn
target set in 2021
• The investment market is strengthening,
narrowing the gap between office and industrial
sector
• Supply constraints persist, but an increase is
anticipated later in the year. However, demand is
expected to continue to outstrip new supply

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.25

ValuStrat
in the Media
20 MAR 2024
Dubai villa prices in top areas
double in three years
Villas in Dubai have soared in value, more
than doubling in three years, while
apartment prices rose by over a third on
average, according to the latest report from
ValuStrat. The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) for
February hit 164.1 points, up 23.1% annually,
with monthly growth of 2.1%. Villas stood at
206.1 points, apartments at 136.6, compared
to a base of 100 points in January 2021.
Apartment prices surged 1.9% monthly and
a record 18.6% annually, with top growth in
Discovery Gardens, The Greens, and Palm
Jumeirah. Villas also saw strong gains,
notably in Jumeirah Islands and Palm
Jumeirah. Off-plan registrations and ready
home transactions also spiked, with Emaar
leading sales.
15 JAN 2024
Where is Dubai’s real estate
market headed in 2024?
Dubai’s real estate market exhibited
resilience in 2023, foreseeing exponential
price hikes driven by heightened demand
from local and global buyers. Looking into
2024, speculation swirls about market
trajectory, with expectations of sustained
resilience in transactions. Economic
forecasts project UAE's GDP growth at
4.3%, supported by non-oil sector
expansion. Office space sales peaked in
2023, with continued growth expected in
key districts. Government initiatives and
post-pandemic expansions fuel demand.
Hotel openings and rising residential values
are anticipated, along with upcoming
shopping centers. Regulatory changes and
tourism expansions add depth to Dubai's
evolving landscape, promising a dynamic
year ahead.
Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24
23 JAN 2024
World's super-rich snap up
Dubai luxury properties in
record numbers
Top buyers in Dubai's prime market were
from the UK (16%), China (14%), UAE (12%),
and India (7%). Nakheel swiftly sold out villas
on Palm Jebel Ali. Dubai's effective handling
of the pandemic attracts wealthy individuals
and families, favoring relocation. Dubai's
global reputation thrives due to exceptional
infrastructure and leadership. Palm
Jumeirah dominates luxury sales, with a
significant portion of high-value
transactions. Notably, 66% of global HNWI
target Dubai for second homes. The Palm
Jumeirah remains highly desirable, with
limited homes for sale and prestigious
status. Other areas like Jumeirah Bay Island
and Palm Jebel Ali also see substantial
interest in luxury properties.
11 JAN 2024
Dubai real estate: Apartment
rents to rise further on revised
RERA rates, says report
Dubai's real estate is set for significant
changes, with apartment rents expected to
rise due to revised RERA rates, according to
ValuStrat analysts. While villa market growth
stabilizes, lower mortgage rates may
encourage tenants to consider
homeownership amid rising rents. The
expansion of the Dubai Metro Blue Line is
anticipated to impact demand, especially in
areas with improved transport links. Analysts
suggest that villa rents may have reached
their peak, prompting buyers to explore
more affordable options. Government
initiatives like Emiratisation targets and visa
schemes are expected to strengthen the
market. Positive economic growth, driven by
non-oil sectors and population growth,
supports this outlook. Office spaces in key
areas are experiencing steady demand, with
moderate growth predicted. ValuStrat
research indicates that the real estate
market performed well in 2023, surpassing
pre-pandemic levels across sectors.
P.26
Premium ValuStrat offers premium subscription reports for clients granting them
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Subscription real estate; allowing for more informed decision making and forward
planning. The full in-depth 100+ page Dubai report includes citywide
analysis of freehold districts, including the ValuStrat Price Index, transaction
volumes, service charges, Price to Rent Ratios and Net Yields.

About VPI The ValuStrat Price Index or the VPI, is a valuation-based price index
constructed to represent periodic change in capital values and rental
values experienced by typical residential and commercial properties.

The VPI for Dubai’s residential capital values is updated on a monthly basis.
The VPI for Dubai’s residential rental values is updated on a quarterly basis.
The VPI for Dubai’s office capital values is updated on a quarterly basis.
The VPI for Dubai’s industrial logistics capital values is updated on a
quarterly basis.

The VPI applies weighted averages using data samples representing up to

95% of the market across the city and is built by our expert RICS
Registered Valuers.

Research Methodology
Every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of this document. New
supply data covers 50 defined areas in Dubai including non-freehold areas.
Only completed and under construction projects are included. The new
supply data does not include announced projects, and projects in design
phase. The new supply database does not take into account most private
building projects. Prices are calculated from actual transactions. Rental
data is derived from a carefully cleansed database of listings that don’t
include duplicates, potential errors and outliers.

Subscribe for regular market intelligence. Please email us at: business.enquiries@valustrat.com

Dubai / Real Estate Q1 ‘24 P.27

SI N C E 1 9 77

Strategy determines outcome.

No matter what industry you’re in,
we’re here to help you win.

Declan King, MRICS Haider Tuaima Vismer Mulenga, MRICS

Senior Partner & Group Head of
Real Estate
declan.king@valustrat.com
Director & Head of Real Estate Director, Commercial Valuations
Research vismer.mulenga@valustrat.com
haider.tuaima@valustrat.com

Darshan Shah, MRICS Sean Swinburne, MRICS Adrian Briones, MRICS

Managing Director & Group Head, Director, Commercial Valuations Manager, Residential Valuation
Industrial Consulting sean.swinburne@valustrat.com adrian.briones@valustrat.com
darshan.shah@valustrat.com

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