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y <- data[,-1]
exx <- expos[,-1]
data_de <- death[,-1]
maxusia=104
maxtahun=50
## fungsi de_es
## estimasi ax
i=1
while (i<=maxusia+1)
{
j=1
jum=0
while (j<=maxtahun)
{
jum=jum+y[i,j]
j=j+1
}
ax[i]=jum/49
i=i+1
}
## estimasi b dan k
i=1
while (i <= maxtahun)
{
ki = k[i]
dataexposure = exx[,i]
de_es = jum_es(a, b, dataexposure, ki)
i=i+1
}
i=1
while (i <= maxtahun)
{
ki=k[i]
dataexposure=exx[,i]
de_es = jum_es(a, b, dataexposure, ki)
de_act = sum(data_de[,i])
iter=0
simpan_d=0
d=0
while (d<=10)
{
iter=iter+1
if (de_es > de_act)
{
if (ki > 0)
{
kk = ki*(1-d)
}
else
{
kk = ki*(1+d)
}
de_es1 = jum_es(a, b, dataexposure, kk)
}
else if (de_es < de_act)
{
if (ki > 0)
{
kk = ki*(1+d)
}
else
{
kk = ki*(1-d)
}
de_es1 = jum_es(a,b,dataexposure,kk)
}
else
{
kk = ki
}
simpan_d[iter] = d
nilai_estimasi[iter]=de_es1
selisih[iter]=abs(de_es1 - de_act)
simpan_k[iter]=kk
de_es=de_es1
d=d+0.001
}
k_baru[i]=simpan_k[tmp]
est_baik[i]=nilai_estimasi[tmp]
i=i+1
}
nilai_d[i]=simpan_d[tmp]
## menampilkan hasil estimasi, selisih, dan nilai parameter k
simpan_d
simpan_k
nilai_estimasi
selisih
min