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Ebook Asean and India Asean Relations Navigating Shifting Geopolitics 1St Edition M Mayilvaganan Editor Online PDF All Chapter
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“This is a well-written, comprehensive volume by Dr. Mayil and his colleagues
that takes stock of the varied issues in the 27 years of India–ASEAN ties. The
book covers topics across security, connectivity, trade, culture and people-to-
people dimensions, all written by a fine group of young scholars from India and
Vietnam, which will make it appealing not only to area studies experts but also to
the general audience. Highly recommended.”
– Dr. Dharish David, Associate Faculty, University of
London—SIM-Global Education, Singapore
“This is not only a timely but also a relevant contribution to Indo-ASEAN rela-
tions amidst Covid-19 and the global power transition. ASEAN and India–ASEAN
Relations: Navigating Shifting Geopolitics sheds light on strategic and security
affairs with a specific focus. This volume is crafted to be a spellbound reading as
it reveals unique insights on soft-balancing to maintain security, peace, stability
and prosperity in ASEAN region as well as in the Indo-Pacific region at large. Dr.
Mayil, one of the well-known scholars on strategic and security affairs related to
India and its neighbourhood, empowers a young and experienced group of ana-
lysts to know more on ‘Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable—the art
of the next best’!”
– Mr. Khin Maung Soe, Advisor, Myanmar Institute of Strategic and
International Studies, Yangon, Myanmar
“An extremely insightful work on the evolving dynamics and changing con-
tours of India’s relations with the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN).
An indispensable work for a better understanding of the shifting geopolitics and
emerging security architecture in the Asian region.”
– Prof. Jatswan S. Sidhu, Executive Director, Asia-Europe Institute (AEI),
Kuala Lumpur, University of Malaya
ASEAN and India–ASEAN Relations
This series addresses the current strategic complexities of Asia and forecasts how
these current complexities will shape Asia’s future. Bringing together empirical
and conceptual analysis, the series examines critical aspects of Asian politics, with
a particular focus on the current security and strategic complexities. The series
includes academic studies from universities, research institutes and think-tanks
and policy-oriented studies. Focusing on security and strategic analysis on Asia’s
current and future trajectory, this series welcomes submissions on relationship
patterns (bilateral, trilateral and multilateral) in Indo-Pacific, regional and sub-
regional institutions and mechanisms, corridors and connectivity, maritime
security, infrastructure politics, trade and economic models and critical frontiers
(boundaries, borders, bordering provinces) that are crucial to Asia’s future.
URL: https://www.routledge.com/Routledge-Studies-on-Think-Asia/book-se
ries/TA
Edited by M. Mayilvaganan
First published 2022
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ISBN: 978-1-032-00923-0 (hbk)
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DOI: 10.4324/9781003177173
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by Deanta Global Publishing Services, Chennai, India
Contents
List of illustrations ix
List of contributors xii
Foreword xiii
Preface xvi
Acknowledgement xix
PART I
ASEAN and the emerging security architecture 15
PART II
ASEAN and India: Political and strategic links 75
PART III
ASEAN and India: Culture, commerce and connectivity links 159
PART IV
Future of ASEAN and India–ASEAN ties 241
Index 273
Illustrations
Figures
3.1 A bar chart that shows the observed and envisaged extinction
of species in Southeast Asia as studied by Sodhi et al 43
3.2 A bar chart that shows the changing trend of trading in
Myanmar as seen between 2000 and 2009. One notices that
over the years, Myanmar’s export trade has moved from
agricultural commodities to manufacturing industries and petroleum 44
3.3 A bar chart that shows the overall trade of ASEAN with China,
the US, the EU and Japan. While exports have increased with
the US and the EU, imports have seen an increase with China
and Japan, with China being the main trading partner of ASEAN 44
3.4 A line chart that shows the trend in the trade of ASEAN with
countries of the region. While trade with Japan and South
Korea continues to reduce, that with China has continued to increase 45
11.1 A line chart showing the cumulative number of Free Trade
Agreements signed by India with different countries on the
y-axis increasing as the year of enactment increases from 1970
to 2010 on the x-axis, peaking at nineteen in 2010 182
11.2 A timeline showing the evolution of India–ASEAN relations,
from “Look East Policy” in 1991 to “signing of ASEAN–India
Trade in Services and Investment Agreement in 2015.” 183
11.3 A combination bar graph and a line chart showing the BOT in
goods between India and ASEAN quoted in US dollars on the
y-axis, increasing with time on the x-axis from 2000–01 to
2017–18 185
11.4 A clustered column chart showing the simple average applied
tariff rates in percentage by the ASEAN member countries on
agricultural, non-agriculture and all products in 2006 186
11.5 A clustered column chart showing edible oil production and
consumption in Southeast Asia in 1,000 metric tonnes on the
y-axis increasing with time from 2000–01 onwards to 2019–20
on the x-axis with a dip in production in 2015–16 188
x Illustrations
11.6 A clustered column chart showing the production and
consumption of edible oil in India in 1,000 metric tonnes on
the y-axis with consumption increasing rapidly and production
near stagnant with time on the x-axis from 2000–01 to 2019–20 189
11.7 A line chart showing the unit price of imports of edible oil in
US dollars (CIF/Tonne) by Indonesia, Malaysia, Argentina,
Brazil, Ukraine and the USA on the x-axis showing time
period from 2000–01 to 2019–20 189
11.8 A combination chart of stacked columns showing imports of
edible oil from the world and ASEAN in lakh tonnes on the
y-axis and stacked line showing percentage share of imports
from ASEAN on the secondary y-axis during the time 2000–01
to 2019–20 on the x-axis 190
11.9 A 100% stacked column chart showing the composition of
India’s edible oils, including coconut oil, cottonseed oil, palm
oil, peanut oil, rapeseed oil, soybean oil and sunflower seed oil
on the y-axis over the period 1975–76 to 2019–20 on the x-axis 191
11.10 A line chart showing average retail prices of packed oils in
India, including groundnut oil, mustard oil, sunflower oil, soya
oil, and palm oil in rupees per kg on the y-axis over the period
2009 to 2019 on the x-axis 191
11.11 A line chart showing the production of Indonesia’s export in
1,000 metric tonnes on the y-axis over the period 2000–20 on
the x-axis 193
11.12 A three-panel pie chart showing the share of soybean oil,
palm oil, sunflower oil, and other oils in imports in 2011–12,
2015–16, and 2019–20 194
11.13 A line chart showing unit import prices of soya bean crude oil
w/n degummed, RPO and its fractions, CPO and its fractions,
and crude oil of sunflower and safflower seed in US dollars
(CIF/Tonne) on the y-axis with time on the x-axis from
2000–01 to 2019–20 195
11.14 A line chart showing tariff values of crude palm oil, refined
palm oil, and soybean oil in CIF US dollars on the y-axis with
time from 2005–06 to 2019–20 on the x-axis, registering an
increase in the tariff values for all three from 2011–12 196
11.15 A line chart showing India’s effectively applied tariff rates
on crude soybean oil, crude palm oil, refined palm oil and
sunflower oil on the y-axis with time from 2000 to 2019 on the
x-axis 199
11.16 A line chart showing final unit import prices inclusive of tariffs
of soya bean crude oil w/n degummed, refined palm oil and
its fractions, crude palm oil and its fractions, and crude oil of
sunflower and safflower seed in US dollars (CIF/Tonne) on the
y-axis with time on the x-axis from 2000–01 to 2019–20 200
Illustrations xi
11.17 A two-panel pie chart showing the share of commercial
services exports and imports in Asia-Pacific economies in 2017 202
11.18 A pie chart showing the contribution of Asia-Pacific economies
in services trade growth in 2018 203
11.19 A stacked column chart showing India and ASEAN’s FDI
flows in a million US dollars on the y-axis during 2009–18 on
the x-axis 204
Tables
3.1 Territorial Claims in the Spratly Islands 47
6.1 Assam Government’s Projects under the India–ASEAN Connectivity 95
10.1 Maritime Profiles of ASEAN Countries and India 167
10.2 Passengers from ASEAN by ASEAN Airlines to India 168
10.3 Passengers from India to ASEAN through ASEAN Airlines 168
10.4 Airlines Operating between India and ASEAN Countries 169
10.5 Weekly Frequency and Mode of Flights between India and
ASEAN Countries 171
10.6 Foreign Tourist Arrivals from ASEAN Countries to India (2016–18) 172
10.7 Indian Nationals Departure to ASEAN Countries 173
10.8 Country-wise (ASEAN) Foreign Nationals Studying in India 174
10.9 Number of Indian Students Pursuing Studies in ASEAN Countries 175
11.1 Summary of Progress in ASEAN–India Relations 184
11.2 AIFTA Preferential Tariff Rates on Crude Palm Oil and Refined
Palm Oil 187
11.3 India’s Import of Major Edible Oils, 2011–20 (lakh tonnes) 193
11.4 Production Statistics of Soybean Oil (in 1,000 MT) by Major
Producers, 2010–20 197
A.1 ASEAN–India Trade ($Billions) 205
A.2 India’s Imports from World and ASEAN (qty. in thousands) 206
A.3 Edible Oil Imports (in lakh tonnes) 206
A.4 Crude Palm Oil and Refined Palm Oil Statistics 207
12.1 Indian Diaspora in Southeast Asia (as of December 2018) 213
Map
3.1 A map that shows the spread of the Indo-Pacific extending from
the east coast of Africa to the west coast of the Americas 37
Contributors
Captain (Dr.) Nitin Agarwala, Visiting Faculty, Naval War College, Verem,
Goa, India.
Subhadeep Bhattacharya, Research Scholar, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India.
Mohor Chakraborty, Assistant Professor in Political Science, South Calcutta
Girls’ College (Calcutta University), Kolkata, India.
Shelly Gupta, Research Scholar, Centre for Economic Studies and Planning,
School of Social Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India.
Quach Thi Hue, Lecturer, Ho Chi Minh National Academy of Politics, Hanoi,
Vietnam.
Pankaj K. Jha, Associate Professor, Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA),
O P Jindal University, Sonipat, India.
S. Y. Surendra Kumar, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science,
Bangalore University, Bengaluru, India.
M. Mayilvaganan, Associate Professor, International Strategic and Security
Studies Programme, National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bengaluru, India.
Vivek Mishra, Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs, New Delhi,
India, and Deputy Director, Kalinga Institute of Indo-Pacific Studies,
Bhubaneswar, India.
Gautam Mukhopadhaya, Indian Foreign Service (Retd), Former Indian
Ambassador to Afghanistan and Myanmar.
Joshy M. Paul, Research Fellow, Centre for Airpower Studies, New Delhi, India.
Gitanjali Sinha Roy, Research Assistant, the Centre for Land Warfare Studies,
New Delhi, India, and Research Scholar at the Department of East Asian
Studies, University of Delhi, Delhi, India.
Udai Bhanu Singh, Senior Research Associate and Coordinator, Southeast
Asia and Oceania Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and
Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi, India.
Doan Truong Thu, Senior Lecturer, Hochiminh National Academy of Politics
(HCMA), Hanoi, Vietnam.
Foreword
A deep sense of gratitude overwhelms my memory of the time when this book
on ASEAN and ASEAN–India relations was conceived and prepared for publica-
tion. Shared ideas, active collaboration and support from many people and institu-
tions made possible the work, which fits in more with the perception of “putting
together” than with the “idealistic notion of authorship.” My foremost gratitude
goes to my friend Dr. Sonu Trivedi of the Southeast Asia Research Group of the
Department of Political Science at the University of Delhi. Her warm friendship
and common academic interest helped to put together some young and experi-
enced scholars for this edited volume. Without her partnership, this edited volume
would not have been possible. Special thanks are due to the India Foundation and
the Embassy of Indonesia at New Delhi for their immense support provided dur-
ing the dialogue on the subject that was held at NIAS, Bengaluru, India.
I would like to express my appreciation and gratitude to all the authors for
their scholarly contribution to this volume; without their timely support it would
have been impossible to imagine the publication of this volume. I am happy that
Routledge agreed to publish this book. Special thanks to Dr. Jagannath Panda,
Series Editor, Routledge Studies on Think Asia and Ms. Dorothea Schaefter,
Senior Editor, Asian Studies, for taking an active interest in this work as well
coordinated the production of this book from Routledge. I must also thank Ms.
Alexandra de Brauw and other members of Routledge publication for the timely
support and coordination.
I am deeply indebted to NIAS—my institution—for allowing me to take up
a sabbatical that helped in finalising the manuscript. Particularly, I am grateful
to the director of NIAS, Dr. Shailesh Nayak and Prof. Rajit Mazumder of De
Paul University at Chicago (for providing an affiliation during my stay in the
US) for their timely support. The NIAS and De Paul University’s support was
fundamental in the successful completion of this book. Thanks are also due to
my ISSSP faculty colleagues for their encouragement and in particular to Prof.
Rajaram Nagappa, the former Head of ISSSP, NIAS, for his intellectual guidance
and support.
I am profoundly grateful to Shri Rajiv Bhatia, former ambassador of India to
Myanmar, Prof. Jatswan S. Sidhu, executive director of Asia-Europe Institute (AEI)
in the University of Malaya, Malaysia, Mr. Khin Maung Soe, advisor, Myanmar
xx Acknowledgement
Institute of Strategic and International Studies, Myanmar, and Dr. Dharish David,
associate faculty, University of London-SIM-Global Education, Singapore, for
their kind espousal. My sincere thanks also goes to Nasima Khatoon, Kannan
Nair, Revathy K. J. and Angelin Archana for their timely research assistance.
Finally, I offer gratitude to my family members, particularly Amudha, Deekshi,
Muthulakshmi, Senthil, Priya, Thanvanthi and Tharaneesan, for their support and
understanding while I was finalising the manuscript. My thanks to all the friends
in NIAS and elsewhere for extending moral support throughout the writing and
editing of this book.
M. Mayilvaganan
Bengaluru, India
1 Introduction
ASEAN and India: navigating shifting
geopolitics
M. Mayilvaganan
DOI: 10.4324/9781003177173-1
2 M. Mayilvaganan
the economic cooperation in Southeast Asia.7 The formation of the Association of
Southeast Asia (ASA) on 31 July 1961 made up of Malaya, the Philippines and
Thailand and of MAPHILINDO with Malaysia, the Philippines and Indonesia
were the first attempts by the countries in the region to have their own mechanism
for cooperation and for resolving conflict. While many viewed the ASA as subor-
dinate to the American interests in the Southeast Asian region, the ASA members
were intending to build an independent association, free from any external influ-
ence, with the single focus of economic cooperation among the member states as
a way to counter the communist subversion activities in the region.8
The formation of ASEAN during the Cold War and its existence as a relevant
and powerful regional grouping at the moment is indeed the result of an endeav-
our for regional resilience in spite of many crises. While ASEAN kept its focus
on economic integration and avoided taking stands on political issues like the
Cambodian crisis, it, in fact, put pressure on the regional groupings. Notably,
the post–Cold War geopolitical scenario saw the rise of Chinese assertiveness
in the SCS, where Beijing ventured into the waters of neighbouring countries
of the SCS region. Chinese occupation of the Mischief Reef in 1996 not only
exposed the powerlessness of ASEAN but also gradually brought fissure in the
grouping. Hence, the constant changing geopolitical dynamics in Southeast Asia
required ASEAN to adapt to the contemporary conditions and engage most of the
external powers, including the US, China and India, in the regional affairs. Since
the 1992 Singapore–ASEAN Summit,9 it has become the strategy of ASEAN to
embrace as many outsiders as possible to balance any threat arising from one sin-
gle power. Through this cooperative security mechanism, ASEAN has managed
to stay a relevant regional group, thereby offering mutual economic benefits for
ASEAN countries.
Notes
1 Refer Tarling, Southeast Asia and the Great Powers, London and New York, Routledge,
2010, p. 143.
2 Chintamani Mahapatra, American Role in the Origin and Growth of ASEAN, New
Delhi, ABC Publishing House, 1990, p. 20.
3 https://nuspress.nus.edu.sg/products/the-asean-miracle-a-catalyst-for-peace.
4 Advait Rao Palepu, “The Cultural Base of 9 ASEAN States is Indian,” Rediff.com,
26 January 2018, https://www.rediff.com/news/interview/the-cultural-base-of-9-asean
-states-is-indian/20180126.htm.
5 See “Vietnam War,” at https://www.history.com/topics/vietnam-war/vietnam-war-histo
ry; also see Christian G. Appy, “What Was the Vietnam War About?,” The New York
Times, 26 March 2018 at https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/26/opinion/what-was-the
-vietnam-war-about.html.
6 See https://www.britannica.com/place/Cambodia/Civil-war; also see UNICEF, “The
Crisis in Kampuchea,” at https://www.unicef.org/about/history/files/Child-Nation-M
-Black-Ch16-p378-407-crisis-kampucea.pdf.
7 Refer Vincent K. Pollard, “ASA and ASEAN, 1961–1967,” Asian Survey, Vol. 10, No.
3, March 1970, at www.jstor.org/stable/2642577
8 Ibid, p. 246.
9 Alan Collins, Security and Southeast Asia: Domestic, Regional and Global Issues,
Singapore, Viva Books PVT. Ltd., 2005, p. 170.
10 https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/cb.html.
11 PEW, Global Religious Landscape – Religious Composition by Country, https://we
b.archive.org/web/20160310101254/https://www.pewforum.org/files/2012/12/glob
alReligion-tables.pdf.
12 Jan Wisseman Christie, “The Medieval Tamil-Language Inscriptions in Southeast Asia
and China,” Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 29, No. 2, September 1998, p.
251, https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/20072045.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Abcd0bcdc
bf9d2d77297d44335c81ba7e.
13 Iravatham Mahadevan, “An Epigraphic Perspective on the Antiquity of Tamil,” The
Hindu, 24 June 2010 at https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/An-epigraphic-pe
rspective-on-the-antiquity-of-Tamil/article16265606.ece.
14 See Jan Wisseman Christie, “The Medieval Tamil-Language Inscriptions in Southeast
Asia and China,” Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 29, No. 2, September 1998,
Introduction 13
p. 251 at https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/20072045.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3Ad7b
32165b237c6d488af21002f3b7707
15 Ibid.
16 Cindy Kleinmeyer, “Religions of Southeast Asia,” Northern Illinois University, June
2004 at https://www.niu.edu/clas/cseas/_pdf/lesson-plans/k-12/origins-religion.pdf
17 UNIPRO, “Hudhud and Darangen: Voices From Pre-Colonial Philippines,” 23 July
2015 at https://www.unipronow.org/oldblog/hudhud-darangen-voices-pre-colonial-
philippines.
18 Santanam Swaminathan, “Philippines-A Tamil Hindu Colony?,” Speakingtree, 27 January
2013, https://www.speakingtree.in/blog/philippines-a-tamil-hindu-colony.
19 For instance, some of his works established Indian connection like “Champa, Ancient
Indian Colonies in the Far East,” Vol. I, Lahore, 1927 and “Suvarnadvipa, Ancient
Indian Colonies in the Far East,” Vol. II, Calcutta.
20 George Coedes, Walter F. Vella (ed.) The Indianized States of Southeast Asia, trans.
Susan Brown cowing, University of Hawaii Press, 1968.
21 Refer Sanjaya Baru, India and ASEAN: The Emerging Economic Relationship towards
a Bay of Bengal Community, ICRIER Working Paper, No. 61, February 2001, p. 4 at
https://icrier.org/pdf/baru61.pdf.
22 Jan Wisseman Christie, “Javanese Markets and the Asian Sea Trade Boom of the Tenth
to Thirteenth Centuries A.D.,” Journal of the Economic and Social History of the
Orient, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1998, p. 367, at https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/3632418.pdf?
refreqid=excelsior%3A6997b2f45b4a2facdffbea22b0992427.
23 K. M. Panikkar, IndiaandtheIndianOcean:AnEssayontheInfluenceofSeaPower
on Indian History, London, George Allen & Unwin, 1945.
24 For details see A. Mani and P. Ramasamy, “Subhas Chandra Bose and the Indian
National Army: A Southeast Asian Perspective,” Ritsumeikan Journal of Asia Pacific
Studies, at https://www.apu.ac.jp/rcaps/uploads/fckeditor/publications/journal/RJAPS
_V22_Mani_Ramasamy.pdf
25 http://www.mea.gov.in/images/pdf/1-executive-summary.pdf
26 India-ASEAN Cooperation, Public Diplomacy, Ministry of External Affairs,
Government of India, 2012, at https://mea.gov.in/in-focus-article.htm?19952/
IndiaASEAN+Cooperation.
27 Tan Tai Yong and See Chak Mun, “The Evolution of India–ASEAN Relations,” Journal
India Review, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2009, at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/
14736480802665170?scroll=top&needAccess=true.
28 S. D. Muni and See Chak Mun, “Asean-India Relations: Future Directions,” ISAS Special
Reports, 25 May 2012, pp. 8–9 at https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/143456/ISAS_Special_
Report_05__-Asean-India_Relations_-_Future_Directions_New_25052012172612.pdf.
29 S. D. Muni and Rahul Mishra, India’s Eastward Engagement: From Antiquity to Act
East Policy, SAGE Publications India, 2019.
30 The break up of Soviet bloc, the Gulf crisis (Iran-Kuwait war) and internal political
instability are few that eventually resulted in fiscal indiscipline and rise in external debt
worldwide.
31 Refer Sanjaya Baru, India and ASEAN: The Emerging Economic Relationship towards
a Bay of Bengal Community, ICRIER, February 2000.
32 Mohammad Ayoob, India and Southeast Asia: Indian Perceptions and Policies,
London, Routledge, 1990.
33 Ministry of External Affairs, India-ASEAN Relations, Government of India, https://me
a.gov.in/aseanindia/20-years.htm.
34 Zhao Hong, “India and China: Rivals or Partners in Southeast Asia?,” Contemporary
Southeast Asia, Vol. 29, No. 1, April 2007, p. 142.
35 Acronym represents the initials of the names of the original members, namely,
Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and Thailand, and subsequently Nepal and
Bhutan were added.
14 M. Mayilvaganan
36 Refer Statement to the India Media by Prime Minister, Shri Atal Bihari Vajpayee
at the conclusion of his visit to Bali and Thailand, Prime Minister’s Office,
12 October, 2003, at http://pibarchive.nic.in/archive/releases98/lyr2003/roct2003
/12102003/r121020032.html.
37 Tan Tai Yong and See Chak Mun, “The Evolution of India–ASEAN Relations,” Journal
India Review, Vol. 8, No. 1, 2009, at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/
14736480802665170?scroll=top&needAccess=true.
38 Rajiv Sikri, India’s “Look East” Policy, Asia-Pacific Review, 23 June 2009, at https://
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13439000902957624.
39 Dr. Manmohan Singh Speech, at https://archivepmo.nic.in/drmanmohansingh/content_
print.php?nodeid=441&nodetype=2.
40 Tan Tai Yong and See Chak Mun, n. 39.
41 Syed Hamid Albar, “ASEAN-India Partnership: Opportunities and Challenges,”
in India-ASEAN Partnership in an Era of Globalization. New Delhi: Research and
Information System for the Non-Aligned and Other Developing Countries, 2002.
42 www.asean.org.
43 Thongkholal Haokip, India’s Look East Policy and the Northeast, SAGE Publications
India, 2015, p. 30.
44 Ministry of External Affairs, “Opening Statement by Prime Minister of India at the 12th
India-ASEAN Summit at Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar,” 12 November 2014, Government
of India, at http://mea.gov.in/aseanindia/SpeechStatementASEM.htm?dtl/22566/Ope
ning+Statement+by+Prime+Minister+at+the+12th+IndiaASEAN+Summit+Nay+Pyi
+Taw+Myanmar.
45 Asian News International, “ASEAN Lies at Core of India’s Act East Policy, says PM
Modi,” India Today, 3 November 2019, at https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/asean
-narendra-modi-1615308-2019-11-03.
46 Press Trust of India, “Swaraj’s 3-C Formula for Ties with ASEAN: Culture, Commerce,
Connectivity,” Business Standard, 6 January 2018, at https://www.business-standard.
com/article/current-affairs/swaraj-s-3-c-formula-for-ties-with-asean-culture-com
merce-connectivity-118010600452_1.html.
47 ASEAN-India, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Overview ASEAN-India
Dialogue Relations, November 2015, at http://www.asean.org/wp-content/uploads/
images/2015/November/asean-india/Overview%20ASEAN-India%20Dialogue%20R
elations%20-%20November%202015.pdf.
48 “India-ASEAN Bilateral Trade May Double by 2025 to $300 Billion: Study,” Business
Standard, 12 November 2019, at https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-
policy/india-asean-bilateral-trade-may-double-by-2025-to300-billion-study-119111
200547_1.html.
49 Ministry of External Affairs, “Remarks by External Affairs Minister at Delhi Dialogue
X,” Government of India, 19 July 2018 at https://www.mea.gov.in/Speeches-Statemen
ts.htm?dtl/30138/Remarks_by_External_Affairs_Minister_at_Delhi_Dialogue_X_J
uly_19_2018#:~:text=%22ASEAN%20is%20one%20of%20the,strategic%20concern
s%20and%20economic%20interests%E2%80%9D.
Part I
Introduction
In November 2020, the Philippines decided to extend the suspension period
of the proposed abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement (VFA) with the
United States (US) by another six months so as to create a more enhanced, mutu-
ally beneficial, mutually agreeable and more effective and lasting arrangement.1
Announcing the decision, the Philippines’ Foreign Secretary T. Locsin also prayed
for the long life of the Philippines–US friendship and alliance.2 This announce-
ment holds immense significance in the context of the Philippine government’s
decision to terminate the VFA with the US in February 2020.3 However, in June
2020 the plan was suspended till November 2020.4 This episode establishes the
fact that traditional allies of the US in Southeast Asia still depend on the super
power’s protection against aggression. This decision is also significant in the con-
text of China’s appeal to neighbouring countries back in July 2017 to say “no”
to outside forces who attempt to interfere in the South China Sea (SCS) dispute.5
And Manila’s decision to continue the VFA with the US comes in the backdrop
of the growing alleged Chinese aggression in the SCS against which Manila has
erupted in protest.6
Vietnam, another major contender of China in the SCS region, has shared in
her defence white paper a desire to pursue stronger military ties with other coun-
tries. The National Defence Paper released in November 2019 said that “Vietnam
will consider developing necessary, appropriate defense and military relations
with other countries … for mutual benefits and common interests of the region
and international community.”7 Apart from this, the participation of Vietnam in
the Quad8 meeting in March 2020 to discuss the Covid-19 pandemic situation9
triggered analyses about possible “Quad Plus” security architecture against China
in the Indo-Pacific region.10
The US changed the name of Pacific Command to Indo-Pacific Command
in May 2018, thereby expanding the US security cover “from west coast of
the United States to western shores of India.”11 This change has integrated the
ASEAN region within the grand Indo-Pacific security architecture of the US. To
commensurate with this development, ASEAN issued its “Indo-Pacific Outlook”
DOI: 10.4324/9781003177173-3
18 Subhadeep Bhattacharya
in 2019 to “provide guidance to ASEAN engaging in Asia-Pacific and Indian
Ocean region (IOR).”12
The abovementioned developments in Southeast Asia in the last one-and-a-half
years underline the growing importance of an external actor (US in this case) in
the region lately, which is consistent with the geopolitical history of the ASEAN
region since 1947. Historically, external powers, or precisely former colonisers,
have kept the Southeast Asian region under their umbrella of protection. The
chapter looks at the history of such an involvement and attempts to analyse it in
the current context amidst the growing geopolitical rivalry between the dominant
power, the US, and the emerging power, China, in East Asia, 50 years after the
foundation ASEAN.
The 31st ASEAN Chairman Statement, released after the ASEAN meeting in
Manila on 13 November 2017, read: “We stressed the importance of maintain-
ing ASEAN Centrality and unity in our engagement with external parties and
in responding to regional security challenges.”13 The centrality of this Southeast
Asian organisation to the regional geopolitics of East Asia is most visible today
in the form of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), East Asia Summit (EAS) and
ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+), each of which centres on
ASEAN. The significance of ASEAN in East Asian geopolitics is an undeniable
fact today. However, the external players’ presence in the regional geopolitics
has been consistent throughout the Cold War era given the dependence of the
local weak states on these external powers for security. Still, some regional states
attempted to develop an independent path to resolve local problems locally, result-
ing in the foundation of ASEAN more than 50 years ago. Now it is important to
review the ASEAN–outsider relations, especially when the regional geopolitics of
Southeast and East Asia is taking a new turn today amidst the rise of China and its
impact on the regional geopolitics.
ASEAN was founded amidst the tense climate prevailing in the Cold War
era. The fall of Beijing to the communist forces and the inconclusive end of the
Korean crisis drew the outside powers to the Southeast Asian region to suppress
“communist menace” in the region. The ensuing period saw the Southeast Asian
geopolitics strongly intertwined with Cold War rivalry, where local politics was
reflecting the global trend. The situation following the Maoist subversive strategy
of “People’s War”14 left the neighbourhood jittery, creating a surge both in internal
chaos and in external involvement in the region. During the Cultural Revolution
(1966–1976), China developed ties with the communist insurgent groups of
Thailand, Malaysia, Burma (today’s Myanmar), Indonesia and the Philippines,
frequently providing them with material support and setting up clandestine radio
stations on Chinese territory.15 ASEAN was founded in this tense environment.
Amitav Acharya has given an intriguing explanation of the foundation of
ASEAN. He argues that the failure of the great powers of Asian international
relations—Japan, China, India and also the US—“to create and shape a last-
ing regional organization” has led the weaker states of the region to promote
Asian regionalism in the form of ASEAN.16 He further argues that the reason
behind this collective action for security by these weaker Asian powers is the
ASEAN at 50 19
capability–legitimacy gap among the great powers. According to Acharya, Asian
great powers like India, which initiated the process of Asian collective action
through Asian Relations Conference (1947) and the Bandung Conference (1955),
lacked the capability to sustain the leadership role due to limited resources.
Besides, weak Asian states like Burma (modern-day Myanmar) were anxious to
avoid being ruled by a big Asian power like India or China.17 On the other hand,
the US had the capability to lead but lacked legitimacy since the US-sponsored
Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) was suspected by the Asian coun-
tries of being created and dominated by a foreign super power. Similarly, Japan’s
Pacific Community idea of the 1960s and 1970s initially remained limited to the
advanced industrial countries of the Pacific like Japan, Australia, the US and
Canada, expanding in the ASEAN region only later, in the form of the Asia-
Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in 1989, for the sake of legitimacy and
viability.18
They have taken another first vital step toward the consolidation of all the
defence arrangements of the Far East, from Japan to New Zealand, into a sin-
gle sort of Pacific NATO, able to concert its defence efforts effectively. Such
consolidation could be the greatest victory for freedom since the creation of
NATO back in 1949.20
The founding members of the ASA were, however, keen to project the independ-
ent nature of their association, free from any external influence. The Philippines
was eager to brush off her tag as the “Asian subsidiary” of the US, due to the pres-
ence of American troops and military establishment in her territory.21 Therefore,
there was an urge in the ASA to be identified as an exclusively Southeast Asian
regional entity and its prime mission was economic cooperation, since this was
the way, the leaders concluded, the menace of communist subversion could be
countered.
20 Subhadeep Bhattacharya
Although initially uninterested in the ASA, in 1966 the US Secretary of State
Dean Rusk projected the body as a tool to share the US burden in the region.22 This
underlines the fact that the ASA was forwarding the anti-communist policy of
the US, which was further endorsed by Filipino Congressman Cornelio Villareal,
who described the ASA’s role as an extension of the SEATO.23 Therefore, it is
undeniable that the ASA, although projected as a regional initiative to handle
regional issues, was a local initiative complementary to the anti-communist mis-
sion of an external actor, the US.
FPDA
A British analysis of the geostrategic map of the Southeast Asian region of the
late 1960s drew a grim picture. Nearly all the countries of the region seemed
to be “vulnerable to outside influence in one form or the other” due to prob-
lems ranging from minority issues in Burma and Malaysia, hostility from neigh-
bour in Malaysia and South Vietnam, political and economic mismanagement
in Indonesia and the fear of communist takeover in almost all the countries.35 In
22 Subhadeep Bhattacharya
that situation, the British unravelling plan of the late 1960s was partial since it
could not escape its defence liability towards the region completely. The absence
of British air defence was a matter of concern for the former British colonies,
Malaysia and Singapore, and the two British dominions, Australia and New
Zealand. Each of these countries had its own fear factor; Malaysia and Singapore
were interested in remaining under the British security umbrella, following the
confrontationist policy of Indonesia (although the Suharto regime had ended
the policy of Soekarno by then), while Australia and New Zealand considered
Indonesia a major security threat.36 The later conservative government (which
was voted to power in June 1970) in London modified the proposal of complete
withdrawal of forces from the region and decided to maintain “modest military
presence in the Far East.”37
By 1976, however, both the UK and Australia withdrew forces from Singapore.
This gradual British military unravelling from the region forced Malaysia and
Singapore to look towards the US as a security guarantee.38 The foundation of the
Five Powers Defence Agreement (FPDA) in 1971, bringing together Malaysia,
Singapore, Australia and New Zealand along with the UK, was in a way a British
assurance to the local powers which had enjoyed British security guarantee so
far. However, the relevance of the FPDA remains even today in the form of
the Asian Security Conference, commonly known as the Shangri-La Dialogue,
organised annually since 2001 by the International Institute of Strategic Studies
(IISS) in Singapore. But the importance of the FPDA gradually got diminished,
according to Damon Bristow, “by the strength of US commitments” since the
arrangements overlap with bilateral alliances, exercises and programmes (of
the US).39 However, the Shangri-La Dialogue has emerged as a major consulta-
tive forum, attracting external actors to share their views on the regional secu-
rity architecture of the Asia-Pacific region with the local players, including the
ASEAN members.
Therefore, ASEAN survived and sustained with an external protection guar-
antee. However, the desire for an exclusive role for local actors in handling
local affairs was genuine among the Southeast Asian leaders, and thus then
Indonesian Foreign Minister Adam Malik wanted an early stabilisation of the
region that “would not be exclusive ‘diktat’ of the major powers and insisted
on the Southeast Asian nations taking more responsibility in the maintenance
of the security of the area which should be acknowledged by the big powers.”40
Presumably, he implied that the external powers should recognise the respon-
sibility of the regional states regarding regional security. This sense of respon-
sibility was first reflected when ASEAN adopted the ZOPFAN (Zone of Peace
Freedom and Neutrality) in 1971, which set the association’s relations with the
external actors. The ZOPFAN was the result of the Western unravelling policy
in Southeast Asia in the late 1960s which increased the possibility of Soviet and
Chinese assertion in the region.41 However, the effectiveness of the ZOPFAN
was minimal in the Southeast Asian region since it could hardly limit the grow-
ing involvement of Soviet Union, as was reflected in the Cambodian crisis,
especially after the Sino-Vietnam War in 1979.
ASEAN at 50 23
Cambodian crisis, external actors and the relevance of ASEAN
The anti-Soviet policy of ASEAN reached its climax during the Cambodian crisis
when Vietnam, with tacit support from Moscow, replaced the barbaric Pol Pot
regime in Cambodia with the Heng Semrin administration. On the other hand, the
Soviet presence in the region grew in the late 1970s, after the Sino-Vietnam War
of 1979.42 ASEAN could hardly thwart the presence of the Soviet fleet in the SCS
during this time.
ASEAN, however, kept on pushing for the resolution of the Cambodian cri-
sis, but it was not until Moscow decided to withdraw from Southeast Asia that
ASEAN had a chance to play a role in resolving the Cambodian crisis. What is
noteworthy here is that the Cambodian crisis was resolved not by ASEAN but
by the USSR’s withdrawal. Even Vietnam’s ultimate withdrawal of forces from
Cambodia was the result of Moscow’s pressure rather than ASEAN’s demand. As
opined by Alan Collins, “Southeast Asian stability was achieved by external pow-
ers.”43 However, then Thai Prime Minister Prem Tinsulanonda visited Moscow in
1988 and urged the Soviet leadership to convince Vietnam to soften its stand on
the Cambodian issue.44 Undoubtedly, without Soviet help the Cambodian crisis
could not have been resolved.
Khoman had realised the growing importance of the regional body to the external
actors in the twilight of the Cold War era.
This realisation of the association was well reflected through its “omni-enmesh-
ment” strategy in the post–Cold War period. The foundation of the ASEAN
Regional Forum (ARF, 1994), East Asia Summit (EAS, 2005) and ASEAN
Defence Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+, 2010) are such attempts to “enmesh”
external actors with the regional order to ensure that dialogue is chosen over duel.
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— Ah, ça ! dis donc, j’espère que… hein ?… Ah ! mais non !…
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— Ça, lui dit-elle, ça, Théramène, c’est le comte Paul
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Le vieux cabot, arrondissant largement le bras, porta sa main
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saluant : « Peste, ma fille ! tu te mets bien ! » Puis, de sa voix
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tête, l’assura d’un coup de poing, et s’écria :
Tiens ! c’était vrai, cela. Depuis un instant, elle n’y pensait plus ;
mais, au fond, elle était venue lui demander ça. Qui peut prévoir
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— Est-ce bête ! voilà que je pleure !… Adieu, père Théramène.
— Bonne chance ! lui dit naïvement le pauvre professeur de
diction et de maintien.
Quatre jours plus tard, une lettre d’elle apprenait à la comtesse
Louis d’Aiguebelle son intention arrêtée d’aller passer dans un
couvent, à Lyon, le temps de son deuil.
« Est-ce que c’est vrai ce que m’annonce madame de Ruynet, lui
écrivit Léon Terral, — que vous allez vous marier ? »
Elle lui répondit du couvent : « C’est vrai. »
VII