Well Integrity

Risk Assessment:

A Qualitative Model

MJ Loveland and Jerry Dethlefs

SPE WI ATW 2009 UK

 Purpose

To assess risk on a well or well

portfolio so that it can be
managed in a safe and
environmentally sound manner
with efficient use of limited
resources
 What is Risk?

The combination of both the Severity of

the consequences of a given unfavorable
event and the Likelihood or Probability
that the event will occur.
Risk goes up with increasing
severity and/or likelihood
 Why do a risk
assessment?
„ Identify situations of elevated risk
• Safety
• Environmental
„ Provide well monitoring guidance
• Assist with SOPs and WI program
„ Identify opportunities for mitigation actions
„ Lower operating costs
• Less well down-time
• Longer well life
 Risk Matrix
„ A risk matrix includes both the
severity and likelihood of any
identified hazardous event

„ Severity and likelihood

become the X and Y axis of
the matrix
Risk Matrix (example)
 Risk Categories (example)
Risk Categories
IV High High Risk. Manage risk utilizing prevention and/or
17-25
mitigation with highest priority. Promote issue to
appropriate management level with commensurate
risk assessment detail.

III Significant Significant Risk. Manage risk utilizing prevention

12-16
and/or mitigation with priority. Promote issue to
appropriate management level with commensurate risk
assessment detail.

II Medium Medium Risk with Controls Verified. No mitigation

5-10
required where controls can be verified as functional.
ALARP should be evaluated, as necessary.
As Low As Reasonably Practicable

I Low Low Risk. No Mitigation Required

1-4
 Strategy

„ Use an organized method to:

• Qualitatively assess hazards on a well (or wells)
• Rank risk by severity and likelihood
• Document potential mitigation actions
„ Useful results:
• Focus mitigation efforts for most benefit
• Use limited resources most effectively
• Provide a tool for consistent management of WI
problems
 Format

„ Qualitative, team-based, facilitated

brainstorming format
„ ‘What-If’ Methodology to identify potential
failure modes
„ Relies on experience and knowledge of
participants
„ Post RA: Compare individual wells to risk
register results
 Method

„ Well barrier envelopes are divided into

segments
„ Each segment is ‘failed’ (one at a time)
„ Determine consequences from failure
„ Determine likelihood of failure
„ Determine risk (likelihood x consequence)
„ Continue until every segment is assessed
„ Compile all data in risk register tables
 Deliverables

„ Risk register table for each well type

- Failed well barrier scenarios
- Risk ranking
„ Potential mitigation actions to reduce risks
„ Report of purpose, methodology,
participants, and findings
„ Participants benefit from process
• Excellent learning tool
 Well Types

For more than one well:

„ Divide wells into category “types”

„ Analyze well types during RA

„ Potential type categories

• Existing WI problems
• Type of well service
• Type of well construction
„ Goal: Define enough categories so that all
wells are included for analysis
 Well Types
„ Example, Existing WI Problems
• Producers with A x B communication
• Producers with T x A communication
• Injectors with A x B communication
• Injectors with T x A communication

„ Example, Type of Well Service

• Producers (Free Flow)
• Producers (Artificial Lift)
• Water Injectors
• Miscible Gas (MI) / Gas Injectors
 Well Types
„ Available well barriers may be different for
the various type categories
„ Wells in same type category should have
similar design
• Number of casings, tubulars, service, etc.
„ Risk rank results can be applied to any
real well that fits within the type category
 Failure Modes

„ Each segment of every well barrier will be

“failed” to determine consequences/severity
„ List potential failure modes for each well type:
• External Xmas tree leak
• Tubing (T) x A Annulus Leak
• A x B Annulus Leak
• Production Casing Leaks
• Surface Casing Leaks
• Failed SSSV
Potential
Leak
Paths
Several leak
paths may be
combined to
form a single
failure mode
 Process
„ Pre assessment preparation
• Compile well inventory, choose well types
• Determine “typical” completion/service
information for each type category
• Determine failure modes for analysis
„ Team assessment review
• Determine risk of each failure mode
• Indentify potential mitigation actions
„ Post assessment analysis
• Compare actual wells against risk register
• Consider implementation of mitigations
• Use data for well integrity management
 Assessment Team
„ Technical resource (1-2)
• Local “expert” to prepare data, answer questions
„ Technical experts (6-10+)
• Cross-discipline team; Engrs, Drillers, Ops, HSE
• RA results depend on knowledge and expertise
„ Facilitator (1)
• Keep RA focused & on-track
• Guide discussion through method
„ Scribe (1)
• Capture thoughts & ideas, add to risk register
• Accurate data in risk register is compiled for final report
Assessment Team Duty
„ Analyze each well type
• Consider each failure mode as if real
• Determine consequences of failure
• Determine likelihood of failure
• Assign risk (likelihood x consq. severity)
„ Suggest mitigation actions ↓ risk
„ Document everything in risk register
„ Proceed to next failure mode
 Assessment Tools
„ Wellbore schematic diagrams
„ Well barrier diagrams
„ Drilling and completion reports
„ Production data
„ Intervention and diagnostic
reports
„ Wellhead / facility / flowline specs
„ Operations SOPs / policies
„ Regulatory requirements
Consequence Table (example)

These categories are optional---

 Likelihood Table (example)

LIKELIHOOD (most likely down to least likely)

Category One Word Quantitative Description
Descriptor Range /Yr(a)
Likely to occur several
5 Frequent > 10-1
times a year
Expected to occur at least
4 Probable 10-3 - 10-1
once in 10 years
Occurrence considered
3 Rare 10-4 - 10-3
rare
Not expected nor
2 Remote 10-6 - 10-4
anticipated to occur
Virtually improbable and
1 Improbable < 10-6
unrealistic
 Risk Register Tables

„ Generate one table per well type reviewed

„ Provides risk reference for real wells that
fit in the type category
„ Management tool to illustrate high risk
situations and suggest mitigations to
reduce risk
„ Table generation completes task by Team
Risk Register
Risk Register Example
 Post RA – Apply to Real Wells

„ Analyze real wells for fit with risk register

„ Worst case failure mode identified for each

„ Sort wells by risk rank

 Post Assessment
Actions

„ Risk rank results considered by asset

„ Potential for new or modified Ops procedures
„ Potential for mitigation actions
„ Influence Well Integrity Program
 Example Mitigation Measures

„ Preventing tubular corrosion

„ Real-time annular pressure monitoring via
transmitter with alarms
„ Protecting annular jewelry from damage
„ Test barriers to higher pressure
„ Increase test frequency of barriers
„ Wellhead packoff repairs
 Potential Outcomes

„ Justify workovers for high risk wells

„ Justify non-rig workover mitigations
• Patches, gaslift work, etc.
„ Increase servicing and/or testing
„ Increased awareness of well design impact
• May influence future well designs
„ Provides guide for monitoring focus
 Conclusion
„ RA provides an organized method to:
• Identify situations of risk
• Rank the situations by severity
„ Document potential mitigation actions
„ Focus mitigation efforts for most benefit
„ Scenarios based on type of problem
• Individual wells could have slightly different
outcome
Thank you!

Questions?