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Civil Stat 03
Civil Stat 03
Civil Stat 03
Lecture (3)
Basic Probability Concepts
◼ Sample Space
◼ Simple event
◼ Outcome from a sample space with one characteristic
◼ e.g.: A red card from a deck of cards
◼ e.g.: An odd number from a dice throw
◼ Joint event
◼ Involves two outcomes simultaneously
◼ e.g.: A King that is also red from a deck of cards
◼ e.g.: An even number less than 3 from a dice throw
Dr. Mohamed Gad Lecture 3 – Page 4
Visualizing Events
◼ Venn Diagram
◼ Sample space S
◼ Events A and B
◼ Impossible event
e.g.: getting “7” from throwing one die
drawing a card “0” from a deck of cards
◼ Complement of event
◼ Complement of event A: all events not in A
◼ Denoted as A’
◼ For example
◼ A: all defective bulbs in a box
◼ A’: all non-defective bulbs in the box
Union: A B
(A or B)
A B
S
Intersection:
A B A B
(A and B)
S
exhaustive A
C D
B ♦ ♥
◼ n = 52
A A ' =S
P (A ) + P (A ') − P (A A ') = P (S )
A and A ' are mutually exclusive
P (A A ') = P ( ) = 0
P (A ) + P (A ') = P (S ) = 1
P (A ') = 1 − P (A )
◼ Conditional probability:
P( A and B)
P( A | B) =
P( B)
◼ Multiplication rule:
P( A and B) = P( A | B) P( B)
= P( B | A) P( A)
Dr. Mohamed Gad Lecture 3 – Page 18
Conditional Probability and
Statistical Independence
(continued)
E1 E2 Ek
B
Dr. Mohamed Gad Lecture 3 – Page 23
Example 3
◼ The demand of a water supply system can be low (event L) ,
moderate (event M) or high (event H) with known probabilities
P(L) = 0.1, P(M) = 0.7 and P(H) = 0.2. Failure of the system (event F)
can only occur if a certain pump fails to function. From past
experience the following conditional probabilities are known:
P(F | L) = 0.05, P(F | M) = 0.10 and P(F | H) = 0.25. What is the
probability of a pump failure P(F).
P (F | M ) P (M )
P (M / F ) =
P (F | L )P (L ) + P (F | M )P (M ) + P (F | H )P (H )
P (F | M ) P (M ) (0.1)(0.7) 0.07
= = = = 0.28
P (F ) 0.125 0.25
P (M |WR ) P (WR )
P (WR / M ) =
P (M |WR )P (WR ) + P (M |WR )P (WR )
(0.4)(0.5) 0.2
= = = 0.8
(0.4)(0.5) + (0.1)(0.5) 0.25
Dr. Mohamed Gad Lecture 3 – Page 28