5/19/24, 2:23 AM Taiwan is moving too slowly to prepare for war.

Japan can help - Nikkei Asia

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OPINION

Taiwan is moving too slowly to

prepare for war. Japan can help
Lai administration must be persuaded to accelerate push into asymmetrical defense

Yuster Yu and Michael A. Hunzeker

May 15, 2024 05:00 JST

Taiwan navy ships take part in a combat readiness drill on Jan. 31: The island's military is unprepared
to hold out against protracted attack. © Reuters

Yuster Yu is CEO of Taiwan Cyber Security Foundry and

previously served as president of the Institute for Information
Industries in Taipei. Michael A. Hunzeker is an associate professor
with George Mason University's Schar School of Policy and
Government and associate director of the school's Center for
Security Policy Studies. He is the author of "Dying to Learn:
Wartime Lessons from the Western Front."

Taiwan Vice President Lai Ching-te is well aware of the threat that
China poses to his self-ruled island's security. Yet the government
he has served for the past four years has failed to do enough to
prepare militarily for the possibility of protracted war in the Taiwan
Strait.

Taiwan's military remains unready to hold out against attack long

enough for its security partners to forcefully intervene on its behalf.
Consequently, such partners, particularly Japan, should use the
occasion of Lai's ascension to the presidency next week to nudge the
new administration to pursue overdue defense reforms and
embrace an asymmetric military posture with all possible haste.

By most traditional metrics, Taiwan would seem to be moving in

the right direction. Its defense budget is growing. President Tsai
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5/19/24, 2:23 AM Taiwan is moving too slowly to prepare for war. Japan can help - Nikkei Asia

Ing-wen's administration has extended conscription. The

government is buying billions of dollars worth of advanced weapons
from the U.S. Taipei is also trying to produce everything from
submarines to drones on its own.

The problem is that these sorts of indicators can be misleading.

When it comes to military effectiveness, harder-to-measure factors
like culture, leadership, morale, doctrine, training and logistics
matter more. History is littered with militaries that were equipped
with the best weapons but went on to lose wars.

When it comes to intangible factors, Taiwan's military is lagging

dangerously behind.

As seen with the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza, the risks of
protracted conflict and surprise attack are real. Yet, Taiwanese
military doctrine assumes that Taipei will have plenty of advance
warning of a Chinese assault and that any war will be short and
sharp.

Taiwan's armed forces do not have enough personnel, munitions or

parts. The training that troops receive lacks rigor and realism.
Large-scale exercises are highly scripted. And morale within the
ranks is dangerously low.

Another challenge comes from the refusal of Taiwan's Ministry of

National Defense to adopt an asymmetric force posture despite
years of lobbying by U.S. defense experts.

Taiwan President-elect Lai Ching-te, right, announces on April 25 in Taipei that Wellington Koo will be
appointed as defense minister. © Reuters

Their concern has been that the cross-strait military balance has
already shifted in China's favor and that China's so-called anti-
access/area denial capabilities will force the U.S. military to fight its
way into the region to come to Taiwan's aid. This supports the
notion that Taiwan must be ready to fight on its own for weeks if
not months.

An asymmetric force posture would involve using large numbers of

cheap, mobile and lethal weapons like anti-ship and anti-tank
missiles, naval mines and drones as part of a coherent strategy for
decentralized defense in depth at sea, in the air, on the ground, and
in the hearts and minds of the Taiwanese people.

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Taiwanese progress toward adopting an asymmetric posture has so

far been squelched by a combination of bureaucracy and politics. As
a result, the island's military plans continue to depend on deploying
small numbers of expensive American-made jets and ships, most of
which would likely not survive the first waves of a Chinese attack.

Japanese defense experts should appreciate that Taiwan is not

prepared for war and that the island has a lot to do to get ready for
protracted combat against an invader. A quick Taiwanese defeat
would be an unmitigated disaster, robbing Japan of a friendly
neighbor. China, by dint of its victory, would become even more
threatening to Japan.

The obstacles to Taiwanese defense reform and asymmetry are not

insurmountable. But they must be addressed head-on, because they
will not resolve themselves and because they are no secret to
Beijing. Simply helping Taiwan improve its defense industrial
capabilities will not be enough.

Japanese officials must seek to make Lai and his new

administration understand that Taiwan has to be able to hold on
and hold out for months or longer against withering Chinese attack.
This can happen only if Taipei overhauls its military training,
doctrine, logistics and leadership, and adopts a genuinely
asymmetrical defense posture.

Japan's Self-Defense Forces (SDF) should also continue to make

themselves as interoperable with the U.S. military as possible.
Sending a clear signal that the SDF is ready and able to
meaningfully help the U.S. military penetrate a Chinese deterrent
bubble around Taiwan will make it easier for Taiwan to focus on
asymmetric warfare.

To help its message to Taipei sink in, Tokyo could establish an

asymmetric warfare study group and invite Taiwanese think tank
experts and former defense officials to participate in simulations,
conferences and studies. The U.S. Marine Corps could potentially
contribute to such an effort as well given its own recent experiences
with asymmetric transformation.

This kind of effort would help to "normalize" asymmetric warfare by

showing Taiwan that Japan and the U.S. are actively incorporating
asymmetry into their own military organizations.

Anything else that Japanese officials can do in terms of sharing best

practices for military training, inviting Taiwan to participate in
informal dialogues related to doctrinal development and emerging
operational concepts and even discussions about interoperability
would also be beneficial.

Cross-strait deterrence will rest on the strongest possible

foundations if Beijing knows it cannot win a rapid military victory.
Cross-strait stability is weakest when China thinks it can win
quickly.

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Connected by history, trade and a shared commitment to

democratic values, the Taiwan-Japan nexus is emerging as an
important bulwark against the rising tide of aggression in East Asia.

Both Japan and Taiwan would benefit from making sure that
Taiwan is ready, willing and able to defend itself. Pushing Taipei to
urgently address its defense posture will require uncomfortable
conversations, but difficult challenges often forge the strongest
bonds.

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