Let's solve a

guesstimate
Problem Statement
Estimate the
market size of
smartwatches in
India.
 assumptions
We can start with the country's population
and take an urban/rural split first.
An age split of 18-50 is also important
because, typically, those from this
demographic will want to buy a smartwatch.
Affordability is another crucial bucket since
less than 5% of those living in rural areas
will buy a smartwatch on the economic end,
like Noise or Boat.
In urban areas, we can assume that High &
Middle-Income segments will typically buy a
smartwatch and are willing to pay for that.
 assumptions
Once we get the relevant population after
the age and affordability splits, we can
take a split of 30% for those who will
actually buy a smartwatch since others
might buy an analogue watch or may not
need a watch at all.
We divide the number by 5 (assuming that a
watch is replaced after every 5 years) to get
the yearly demand.
We multiply this yearly count of
smartwatches sold by the average price of
Rs. 10K to get the market size
 Framework
Indian Population
(140 crore)
30% 70%
Urban Rural
Urban/Rural (~40 crore) (~100 crore)
60% 60% Very low penetration
18-50 years 18-50 years
Age Split (24 crore) (60 crore)
30% 5%
High+Middle income High+Middle income
Affordability (7 crore) (3 crore)

Relevant age+those
who can afford
(10 crore)
Less competitors with normal
watch/no need for a watch
High+Middle income
(3 crore)
 Calculation
A smartwatch is replaced in 5 years
Yearly demand= 3cr/5
= 60 lakh
Price of smartwatch= ₹10,000
Total price= 10,000*60 lakh
= ₹6,000 crore
= ~$800 million
 Final ANswer
The estimated market
size of smartwatches
in India is
approx. $800 million
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