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5/ Scheduling the Project
Chapter 5
Scheduling the Project
This chapter covers the topic of scheduling, probably the most extensively researched and
published subject dealing with project management. In addition to the usual PERT and CPM
networks, Gantt charts, etc., the subject of project uncertainty and risk management is also
discussed. The use of computer simulation and Crystal Ball to generate the approximate
distribution of project completion times to help better understand the implications associated
with schedule uncertainty is also discussed.
Cases and Readings
A case appropriate to the subject of this chapter is:
Harvard: 9-613-021 Arrow Diagramming Exercise This 3-page case describes the marketing
campaign for a newly developed industrial hardware item. Over two-dozen activities are noted
and described. The case asks for the network diagram and critical path.
A reading appropriate to the subject of this chapter is:
L.P. Leach. Critical Chain Project Management Improves Project Performance (Project
Management Journal, June 1999, p. 39-51). This article explains the procedures developed by
E. Goldratt in his Critical Chain approach to project management. Includes a discussion of
project and feeder buffers. Projects using the critical chain often report significantly improved
schedule, cost, and scope performance.
5-1
Answers to Review Questions
1. How would a PM manage critical path tasks differently than noncritical tasks?
By definition, critical tasks are those tasks that if delayed will delay the completion of the
entire project. Therefore, these tasks should be managed more closely than non-critical
tasks.
In cases where the activity times are not known with certainty, the tasks assumed to be
critical at the beginning of the project may turn out not to be so critical. Therefore, when
tasks times are uncertain, all tasks that may reasonably delay project completion must be
carefully monitored .
2. How is slack determined?
Slack for a particular task is calculated by:
o Subtracting the earliest time the task can start from the latest time the task can start,
o Subtracting the earliest time the task can finish from the latest time the task can finish.
Both calculations result in the same slack and indicate a window in which the task can be
started and finished without delaying the entire project.
The slack for a particular path is calculated by subtracting the path’s duration from the
critical path’s duration and provides an indication of how much the path (i.e., all activities in
total on that path) can be delayed without delaying the completion of the project.
3. How do you determine the ES for an activity with two predecessors? How do you
determine the LF for an activity with two successors?
The earliest start time for an activity with two predecessors is equal to the later (larger)
earliest finish time of the two predecessors since both predecessors must be completed for
the task to begin.
The latest finish time for an activity with two successors is equal to the smaller (earlier)
latest start time of the two successors. If the larger were used, then the preceding task
would be permitted to finish after the latest allowable start time of the other successor.
5-2
4. Will all activities on a noncritical path have the same slack? Why or why not?
No, all activities on the same non-critical path will not necessarily have the same slack.
This is because a particular activity may be on multiple paths. When an activity is on more
than one path, its slack is determined by the path with the least amount of slack.
5. For the following project,
(a) List all predecessors of task 5.

(b) List all predecessors of task 4.
(c) List all predecessors of the network finish (F).
(a) Task 4 is the only immediate predecessor of task 5; other predecessors are 1, 2, and 3.
(b) Tasks 2 and 3 are both immediate predecessors of task 4 the other predecessor is 1.
(c) Task 5 is the immediate predecessor of the network finish (F); the others are 1-4.
6. What is a “dummy” activity?
This type of activity only is seen in activity-on-arrow diagrams. When two activity arrows
have the same beginning and ending nodes they do not have a unique identity in the
project network. To solve this problem a new ending or starting node is created for one of
the activities to provide them with a unique identity. Then, using a dashed arrow, a dummy
activity with no duration is added to preserve the precedence relationship.
7. Consider Figure 5-14. Paths a-b-c and a-b-d converge at activity f, but we ignore this
potential merge problem in the text. Why?
Activities a and b are common to both paths and make the same impact on both paths, so
do not need to be considered. Also, activity f is not on the critical path, so is less likely to
delay the project.
8. What is meant by “project slack”?
If the promised delivery date for a project is greater than the critical path time required to
complete the project, the project is said to have “project slack.”
The amount of the project slack is equal to the delivery time minus the expected project
completion time.
5-3
9. When using AON networks, how does one indicate an event such as a project milestone?
A milestone could be added as a node to the AON network with zero duration.
10. A probabilistic network has a critical path of 21 days and a .95 probability of completing
this path in 24 days. Therefore, the project has a .95 chance of being finished by the end
of the 24th day. True or False? Briefly explain your answer.
False.
Only the path claimed to be critical has a 95 percent chance of being completed within 24
days. However, there may be one or more other paths that also have a chance of taking
longer than 24 days.
If we are comfortable making the assumption that the paths are independent of one
another, then the probability the project will be completed in 24 days or less can be
calculated as the product of the probabilities that each path is finished on or before day 24.
11. “Not uncommonly, the Gantt chart is deceptive in its apparent simplicity.” Briefly explain.
Because the Gantt chart is so easy to construct and read, people may use this tool with little
project management training and no technical knowledge about the project. One danger is
drawing conclusions and making decisions based on the relatively simple information
displayed in the chart.
12. When activity times are known with certainty, the critical path is defined as the set of
activities on a path from the project’s start event to its finish event that, if delayed, will
delay the completion date of the project. Why must this definition be modified in
situations where the activity times are not known with certainty? Are there dangers
associated with not modifying the definition?
In cases where the activity times are not known with certainty, it is not possible to
determine the actual duration of each path. Therefore, it is not possible to determine the
critical path a priori.
A path that is determined to be critical at the beginning of the project based on expected
activity durations may turn out not to be critical when the project is, say, half completed,
perhaps as a result of the extra management attention this path received. Indeed, it is
common for the status of various paths to alternate between being critical and not being
critical as the project is completed.
One danger is that what is thought to be the critical path at the beginning of the project
consumes all of management’s attention only to have other paths fall behind and actually
5-4
end up delaying the project. The implication is that all paths that have the potential to
delay the project should be appropriately managed.
5-5
Suggested Answers to Discussion Questions
13. How might you use the network approach to help prepare cost estimates?
One way to use the network approach to prepare cost estimates would be to simply
estimate the cost of each task in the diagram and then sum these costs up. The time
estimates for the activities would likely be of significant help in estimating some of the costs
(particularly when human labor is required), and then developing a cash flow schedule. To
get a more accurate cost estimate of the project, you could develop three-point estimates
for the costs, just like was done for the completion times, and then simulate the project
taking both cost variations and schedule variations (when schedule changes would impact
the activity cost) into consideration.
14. When would it be accurate to determine the probability of project completion by

multiplying the probabilities of all the paths through the network together? When would
it not be accurate?
It would be accurate to multiply the probabilities together when the paths are independent
of one another.
In reality, the paths are not likely to be truly independent because the paths have activities
in common and common resources are shared across paths. This latter point is particularly
noteworthy as the network diagram only shows technological precedence relationships and
most often does not include information about how the resources will be allocated.
In many textbooks it is common to argue that while true independence across the paths is
rarely met, statistical independence is achieved for large network diagrams with only a few
violations. Of course, the typical homework-type problems assigned are not large enough
to justify the independence assumption and the calculations required for realistically-sized
network diagrams would be far too tedious for most managers. That is why simulation is
the recommended approach in this text. However, it is important to note that
understanding the statistical approach facilitates understanding the simulation approach.
5-6
15. Reconcile Question 14. If this approach is not accurate, would the probability of
completion considering the critical path alone be more accurate? How might you
estimate the correct probability without resorting to simulation?
No, the probability would not be more accurate if only the critical path were considered
unless this one path was much longer than all the other paths. In this case the other paths
would have virtually no chance of delaying the entire project. When activity times are
uncertain, properly calculating the probability that the project is completed by a certain
date requires considering the probability that all paths are completed by the specified date.
If the assumption of path independence is reasonable then the product of the probability of
each path completing by the specified time can be calculated. Otherwise, simulation must
be used. If the project is large, a reasonable estimate can be obtained by identifying those
paths that appear to be potential possibilities of becoming the critical path at some point of
the project due to the variability of both their time and variance. (That is, a time close to the
critical time and a large variance.)
16. Why do you think most PMs use MSP’s Gantt chart format (see Figure 5-22) more
commonly than the network format?
It is much more intuitive, easier to read, and may contain much more information relevant
to the project.
17. Which of the linkages in precedence diagramming do you think is most commonly used?
Why?
As noted in the chapter, the finish-to-start is the most commonly used linkage because
typically certain activities must be completed before other activities can start.
The start-to-start and finish-to-finish linkages are occasionally applicable. In these cases
certain activities must either be started or finished at the same time. The start-to-finish
linkage is probably used the least frequently.
5-7
18. In the calculation of variance for optimistic and pessimistic activity duration estimates
made at the 95 or 90 percent level, the denominator of the fraction that approximated
the standard deviation of the time distribution changes from the traditional (b - a)/6 to
(b - a)/3.3 for 95 percent and to (b - a)/2.6 for 90%. Where did the 3.3 and the 2.6 come
from?
The 3.3 corresponding to 95 percent is based on a z-value of 1.645 which has 5 percent of
the area in the upper tail. Doubling this yields the 3.3 given in the text. Note that the 3.3 is
appropriately used when management specifies an optimistic time estimate that has a 95
percent chance of being achieved and a pessimistic time estimate that has only a 5 percent
chance of being exceeded.
The 2.6 corresponding to 90 percent is based on a z-value of 1.28 which has 10 percent of
the area in the upper tail. Doubling 1.28 yields the 2.6 given in the book. Again, the 2.6 is
appropriately used when management specifies an optimistic time estimate that has a 90
percent chance of being achieved and a pessimistic time estimate that has only a 10 percent
chance of being exceeded.
19. Given all the estimating done to determine the duration of project activities, what does it
mean to say that “only after the fact do we know which path was actually the critical
path”?
When activity times are uncertain, we can only estimate how long they will actually take.
This means that we can only estimate the duration of the paths also. Since these are only
estimates, we will not know for certain which path actually took the longest to complete
until the project is complete.
20. It was noted that “the PM must manage the project team as well as the project.” Explain
why.
There are actually two sets of trade-offs project managers must make. Most commonly, we
talk about making trade-offs between cost, schedule, and performance. However, there is
often another set of trade-offs the project manager must deal with.
Project managers must often make trade-offs between achieving the project goals and
maintaining the health and viability of the project team. Managing this second set of trade-
offs is what is meant by managing the project team while the first set of goals refers to
managing the project.
5-8
21. Why do you think scheduling has been the major focus of effort throughout the history of
project management rather than performance or budgeting?
Performance … the performance of a project is measured by three criteria: is it on time? Is

it on budget? And does it meet the agreed-upon specifications? These are outcomes which
depend, to a large extent, on the effectiveness of the planning process which, in turn,
depends on the accuracy of the scheduling.
Budgeting … as pointed out at the beginning of the chapter, one cannot prepare a budget
without knowing the specifics of each task and the time period(s) during which the task
must be undertaken both for access to scarce resources and for resources whose cost
depends on the duration of their use. The effectiveness of the budgeting process therefore
depends on the accuracy of the scheduling.
Thus, both performance and budgeting rely on the scheduling … and the more accurate and
effective that is, the more likely the later stages (i.e., performance and budgeting) will be.
5-9
Solutions to Problems
Note to instructor: All Crystal Ball solutions are simulations. As such, every answer will be
different; although, the results will be similar to those shown. Note too that each time a
student runs the simulation, they will get a different answer.
22. Refer to the network in Figure 5-14. What is the probability that path a-b-c-f will interfere
with the promised project completion of 50 days? Recall that the critical path, a-b-d-g-h,
had a probability of .86 for a 50-day completion. What is the probability that both paths
will be complete in 50 days?
The expected duration and variance of path a-b-c-f are 44.5 (10 4/6 + 12 1/6 + 12 2/6 +
9 2/6) and 6.47 (1.78 + .25 + 4.00 + .44) respectively.
The probability that this path will take longer than 50 days and therefore interfere with the
project completion can be calculated as follows:
50 − 44.5
z= = 2.17
6.47
From Appendix A, the area in the upper tail for a z-value of 2.17 can be easily calculated as
1.5%. This means there is a 98.5% chance that this path will not interfere with the project
being completed in 50 weeks.
The probability that both paths finish by time 50 (assuming the paths are reasonably
independent of one another) is .985  .86 = 84.71%. NB: Since both paths have activities a
and b common to them, we are counting their variance twice, so our probability of 84.71%
is more pessimistic than needed and the true probability is probably slightly greater than
this, say 85%.
5-10
23. Refer to Table 5-4 and Figure 5-14. Recalculate the variance for each activity on the
assumption that the optimistic and pessimistic estimates were made with a 95 percent
probability. Recalculate the probability that the critical path will be completed in 50 days.
Occasionally, students make the assumption that by 95% we mean that there is a 95%
probability that the task will be completed within the range defined between the optimistic
and pessimistic range. However, in these cases, (b-a) should be divided by 3.92, rather than
3.3.
The spreadsheet below provides the solutions for the 99+ percent probability estimates, as
well as the 95% estimates using both the 3.92 and 3.3 interpretations. Students may find
the use of 3.92 more intuitive. Using this factor, the probability that path a-b-d-g-h finishes
on or before time 50 is 76.5%.
A B C D E F G H
1 Opt. Norm. Pess. Var. Var. Var.
2 Activity a m b TE ((b-a)/6)2 ((b-a)/3.92)2 ((b-a)/3.3)2
3 a 8 10 16 10.67 1.78 4.16 5.88
4 b 11 12 14 12.17 0.25 0.59 0.83
5 c 7 12 19 12.33 4.00 9.37 13.22
6 d 6 6 6 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7 e 10 14 20 14.33 2.78 6.51 9.18
8 f 6 10 10 9.33 0.44 1.04 1.47
9 g 5 10 17 10.33 4.00 9.37 13.22
10 h 4 8 11 7.83 1.36 3.19 4.50
11
12 a-b-d-g-h 47.00 7.39 17.31 24.43
13 Std Dev 2.72 4.16 4.94
14 Prob 86.5% 76.5% 72.8%
15
16 Key Formulas
17 Cell E12 =E3+E4+E6+E9+E10 {copy to cells F12:H12}
18 Cell F13 =SQRT(F12) {copy to cells G13:H13}
19 Cell F 14 =NORMDIST(50,47,F13,TRUE) {copy to cells G14:H14}
If students follow the text and make the assumption that there is a 5% chance of
completing the tasks faster than the optimistic time estimates and there is a 5% chance that
completing the tasks takes longer than the pessimistic time estimates, then the probability
of path a-b-d-g-h finishing on or before time 50 is 72.8%
5-11
24. Refer to Table 5-4 and Figure 5-14. Recalculate the variance for each activity on the
assumption that the optimistic and pessimistic estimates were made with a 90 percent
probability. Again, recalculate the likelihood that the critical path will be finished in 50
days.
If students assume that by 90% we mean that there is a 90% probability that the task will be
completed with the range defined by the optimistic and pessimistic range then (b - a)
should be divided by 3.29, rather than 2.6.
The spreadsheet below provides the solutions for the 99+ percent probability estimates, as
well as the 90% estimates using both the 3.29 and 2.6. Students may find the use of 3.29
more intuitive. Using this factor, the probability that path a-b-d-g-h finishes on or before
time 50 is 72.7%. If students follow the text and make the assumption that there is a 10%
chance of completing the tasks faster than the optimistic time estimates and there is a 10%
chance that completing the tasks takes longer than the pessimistic time estimates, then the
probability of path a-b-d-g-h finishing on or before time 50 is 68.4%
A B C D E F G H
3 a 8 10 16 10.67 1.78 5.91 9.47
4 b 11 12 14 12.17 0.25 0.83 1.33
5 c 7 12 19 12.33 4.00 13.30 21.30
6 d 6 6 6 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
7 e 10 14 20 14.33 2.78 9.24 14.79
8 f 6 10 10 9.33 0.44 1.48 2.37
9 g 5 10 17 10.33 4.00 13.30 21.30
10 h 4 8 11 7.83 1.36 4.53 7.25
11
12 a-b-d-g-h 47.00 7.39 24.57 39.35
13 Std Dev 2.72 4.96 6.27
14 Prob 86.5% 72.7% 68.4%
15
16 Key Formulas
17 Cell E12 =E3+E4+E6+E9+E10 {copy to cells F12:H12}
18 Cell F13 =SQRT(F12) {copy to cells G13:H13}
19 Cell F 14 =NORMDIST(50,47,F13,TRUE) {copy to cells G14:H14}
5-12
25. Given the information in the following table:
a. Network diagram.
5-13
b.d. Each activity’s ES, EF, LS, and LF. Also slack.
See following spreadsheet:
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
A 0 4 0 4 0
B 4 10 4 10 0
C 4 8 4 8 0
D 8 10 8 10 0
E 10 14 15 19 5
F 10 15 10 15 0
G 8 11 12 15 4
H 15 19 15 19 0
I 19 21 19 21 0
c. Alternative paths … and the critical path:
Path Duration Critical?

a-b-e-i 16 No
a-b-f-h-i 21 Yes
a-c-d-f-h-i 21 Yes
a-c-g-h-i 17 No
There are, therefore, two critical paths.
d. Each activity’s slack.
See spreadsheet above (section b).
e. The length of time to complete the project.
The project will take 21 (units of time) to complete (i.e., the length of time of the two
critical paths).
5-14
26. Given the information in the following table, draw the AOA network. Using the same
information, enter the data into MSP assuming a 7-day workweek. (To change the
calendar in MSP from its 5-day week default click “Help,” type “calendar change,” and
follow directions.) Develop the appropriate AON network and Gantt chart. Using any
method you wish, find the critical path and critical time for the network. Then find the
slack for all activities.
Note to instructor: In order to familiarize student with MSP’s “Help” facilities, we have not
given precise instructions in the text for changing MSP’s project calendars, and for using
MSP to find slack. If you wish to make these available, they follow:
The MSP calendar must be reset to a 7-day work week from its usual default of a 5-day work week. To reset
the calendar in MS Project 2010 select the Project ribbon. In the Project ribbon select the Change Working
Time. In the field at the top select Standard (Project Calendar) to change the default calendar. Next click on
the Work Week tab in the middle of the dialog box, then details, and then change the working times for
Saturday and Sunday (e.g., 8:00 am to 12:00 pm and 1:00 pm to 5:00 pm). The resulting Gantt chart is shown
below.
To show slack or float in MSP, click on “View,” then on “More views,” on “Detail Gantt,” and
“Apply.” Activity slack will be shown on the Gantt chart. Then click on “View,” “Table,” and
then “Schedule.” Drag the divider bar to the right, and you will find “Total slack” and “Free
slack” listed in the MSP table. (For these instructions to take effect, project activity data
must have been entered into MSP.)
5-15
5-16
One way the critical path can be determined is by identifying all paths and calculate their
duration. As shown below, this project has six paths and path b-e-h-j-l is the critical path
with a duration of 40.
Path Duration Critical?

a-d-i-k 29 No
a-d-h-j-l 35 No
b-e-i-k 34 No
b-e-h-j-l 40 Yes
b-f-j-l 31 No
c-g-j-l 26 No
The slack for each task is calculated as follows:
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
a 0 5 5 10 5
b 0 7 0 7 0
c 0 4 14 18 14
d 5 11 10 16 5
e 7 16 7 16 0
f 7 13 16 22 9
g 4 8 18 22 14
h 16 22 16 22 0
I 16 24 22 30 6
j 22 31 22 31 0
k 24 34 30 40 6
l 31 40 31 40 0
5-17
27. In the following table, task durations are given in weeks. The estimates were made at the
95 percent level (see Section 5.2, Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times subsection).
a. The spreadsheet below can be used to calculate the expected time and variance for
each activity. (See our note on the use of 3.92 in Problem 24.)
A B C D E F G H
3 a 2 4 6 4.00 0.44 1.04 1.47
4 b 3 5 9 5.33 1.00 2.34 3.31
5 c 4 5 7 5.17 0.25 0.59 0.83
6 d 4 6 10 6.33 1.00 2.34 3.31
7 e 4 5 7 5.17 0.25 0.59 0.83
8 f 3 4 8 4.50 0.69 1.63 2.30
9 g 3 5 8 5.17 0.69 1.63 2.30
10
11 Expected Variance Variance Variance
12 Paths Duration Column F Column G Column H
13 a-d-f 14.83 2.14 5.01 7.07
14 a-c-e-g 19.50 1.64 3.84 5.42
15 b-e-g 15.67 1.94 4.56 6.43
16
17 Prob Path Fin by 23
18 a-d-f 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
19 a-c-e-g 99.7% 96.3% 93.4%
20 b-e-g 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
21
22 Prob Project Fin by 23 99.7% 96.3% 93.1%
23
24 Key Formulas:
25 Cell B13 =E3+E6+E8 {copy to cells C13:E13}
26 Cell B14 =E3+E5+E7+E9 {copy to cels C14:E14}
27 Cell B15 =E4+E7+E9 {copy to cells C15:E15}
28 Cell C18 =NORMDIST(23,$B13,SQRT(C13),TRUE) {copy to cells D18:E18 and C19:E20}
29 Cell C22 =PRODUCT(C18:C20) {copy to cells D22:E22}
b. The precedence diagram using an AOA (Activity on Arrow) network is as follows:
d
a f
c
g
b e
5-18
The critical path is a-c-e-g since it has the longest expected duration of 19.5 weeks.
Note: although this path has the longest expected duration, given the uncertainty
associated with the activity times, it may not be the path with the longest actual
duration.
c. Referring to column H in the spreadsheet above, the probability of completing path a-c-
e-g in 23 weeks or less is 93.4%.
d. Both of the other two paths have virtually a 100% chance of being completed by week
23.
e. As shown in the spreadsheet, there is a 93.1% probability of completing the entire project
by week 23.
5-19
28. Given an auditing project with the following activities:
For this problem, activities not on the critical path can be ignored (not enough information is
given to draw a PERT chart). Those activities on the critical path are used to calculate TE and the
project variance.
Std.
Activity Duration Dev. Variance
A 2 2 4
C 4 0 0
E 1 1 1
G 4 2 4
H 2 0 0
Total 13 9
That information gives the following probabilities:
Completion Probability
Time Less Than
12 0.37
13 0.50
16 0.84
d. The number of weeks required to assure a 92.5 percent chance of completion, as

guaranteed by the auditing firm.
D−
Z=

D − 13
1.44 =
3
D = 17.32
5-20
29. Given the following information regarding a project involving an initial public offering
(IPO):
a.
b.
EARLIEST LATEST EARLIEST LATEST CRITICAL
ACTIVITY START START FINISH FINISH SLACK ACTIVITY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
a 0 1 3 4 1
b 0 0 1 1 0 YES
c 3 4 6 7 1
d 3 5 7 9 2
e 1 3 5 7 2
f 1 1 6 6 0 YES
g 6 7 8 9 1
h 6 6 9 9 0 YES
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRITICAL PATH: b-f-h
c. PROJECT COMPLETION TIME = 9 weeks
d. e has two weeks of slack so a one or two week delay does not delay the project, but a two
week delay will create another critical path. Delaying e three weeks creates a one week delay
and replaces the previous critical path.
5-21
30. Enter the following information into an Excel spreadsheet. The time estimates were made
at the 90 percent level (see Section 5.2, Calculating Probabilistic Activity Times
subsection). All activity times are in days.
a. Draw the network
b. Calculate the expected time and variance for each activity.
Recall that since the estimates were made at 90 percent, you must divide by 2.6 to get the
standard deviation and then square that number to get the variance.
Expected Standard
Activity Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Time Deviation Variance
a 5 6 9 6.33 1.5385 2.3669
b 4 4 6 4.33 0.7692 0.5917
c 7 9 15 9.67 3.0769 9.4675
d 6 6 6 6.00 0.0000 0.0000
e 4 5 7 5.17 1.1538 1.3314
f 12 16 17 15.50 1.9231 3.6982
g 8 12 20 12.67 4.6154 21.3018
h 7 9 16 9.83 3.4615 11.9822
i 10 14 18 14.00 3.0769 9.4675
j 6 12 20 12.33 5.3846 28.9941
k 7 9 14 9.50 2.6923 7.2485
5-22
c. Using the expected times, find the critical path and critical time.
*** ACTIVITY SCHEDULE ***
EARLIEST LATEST EARLIEST LATEST CRITICAL

ACTIVITY START START FINISH FINISH SLACK ACTIVITY
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
-
a 0.00 8.33 6.33 14.67 8.33

b 0.00 2.50 4.33 6.83 2.50
c 0.00 0.00 9.67 9.67 0.00 YES
d 6.33 14.67 12.33 20.67 8.33
e 4.33 15.50 9.50 20.67 11.17
f 4.33 6.83 19.83 22.33 2.50
g 9.67 9.67 22.33 22.33 0.00 YES
h 9.67 15.33 19.50 25.17 5.67
i 12.33 20.67 26.33 34.67 8.33
j 22.33 22.33 34.67 34.67 0.00 YES
k 19.50 25.17 29.00 34.67 5.67
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
CRITICAL PATH: c-g-j
EXPECTED PROJECT COMPLETION TIME = 34.67
VARIANCE OF PROJECT COMPLETION TIME = 9.4675 + 21.3018 + 28.9941 = 59.7633
STANDARD DEVIATION = 7.7307
d. Find the probability that the critical path will be completed in 38 days or less.
38 − 34 .67
Z= = 0.4308
7.7307
A Z value of 0.4308 yields a probability of 66.67 percent.
5-23
e. Are there any serous sources of merge bias?
There are a number of mergers, all at the last activity. Computing the expected completion
time, standard deviation, and probability of exceeding 38 days for each path yields the
following:
Path
Expected Path Standard
Time Variance Deviation P<38
a-d-i 26.33 11.83 3.4401 0.9997
b-e-i 23.50 11.39 3.3750 1.0000
b-f-j 32.17 33.28 5.7692 0.8440
c-g-j 34.67 59.76 7.7307 0.6668
c-h-k 29.00 28.70 5.3571 0.9535
To find the probability of the project taking less than 38 days and assuming independence
among the activities, we multiply these probabilities together. That yields a probability of
0.5365. However, half the activities lie on multiple paths, so the activities are not independent
relative to the paths and our estimate is probably too pessimistic. Looking at the times and
variances of the various paths, only path b-f-j seriously threatens critical path c-g-j, but it’s
variance and standard deviation are much less than that of c-g-i: multiplying these two path
probabilities together gives us a more reasonable value of 0.5628
f. Assume that the times in the table were made on the 99 + percent level. Recalculate the
activity variances with this assumption and find the probability that the critical path will be
complete in 38 days.
This time, the variance is computed directly using the formula ((b-a)/6)2:
Expected
Activity Optimistic Normal Pessimistic Time Variance
a 5 6 9 6.33 0.4444
b 4 4 6 4.33 0.1111
c 7 9 15 9.67 1.7778
d 6 6 6 6.00 0.0000
e 4 5 7 5.17 0.2500
f 12 16 17 15.50 0.6944
g 8 12 20 12.67 4.0000
h 7 9 16 9.83 2.2500
i 10 14 18 14.00 1.7778
j 6 12 20 12.33 5.4444
k 7 9 14 9.50 1.3611
5-24
38 − 34 .67
Z= = 0.9940
3.3500
A Z value of 0.9940 yields a probability of 84 percent. The higher confidence limits for the two
extreme values has correspondingly resulted in higher confidence for the expected value of the
critical path, with less chance of exceeding the 38 day limit.
g. How many days are required for the critical path to have a .9 probability of completion?
Using the previous confidence values of 90 percent:
X −
Z=

X − 34.67
1.282 =
7.7307
1.282(7.7307) = X − 34.67
34.67 + 1.282(7.7307) = X
X = 44.58
31. Given the project in Problem 27, simulate the completion of the project 1000 times,
assuming that the activity times follow a normal distribution and that the time estimates
are made at the 95 percent level.
The spreadsheet below was developed to simulate this project using Crystal Ball. Cells
A12:G12 are Assumption Cells for the activity times based on a normal distribution with the
means in cells E2:E8 and standard deviations in cells G2:G8. Cells L12:O12 were defined as
Forecast Cells.
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O
1 Activity Opt Most Likely Pess Expected Variance Std Dev
2 A 2 4 6 4.00 1.47 1.21
3 B 3 5 9 5.33 3.31 1.82
4 C 4 5 7 5.17 0.83 0.91
5 D 4 6 10 6.33 3.31 1.82
6 E 4 5 7 5.17 0.83 0.91
7 F 3 4 8 4.50 2.30 1.52
8 G 3 5 8 5.17 2.30 1.52
9
10 Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Path Path Path Finish A-D-F A-C-E-G B-E-G Finished
11 A B C D E F G A-D-F A-C-E-G B-E-G Time Critical? Critical? Critical? 23 Weeks?
12 4.00 5.34 5.17 6.33 5.17 4.51 5.17 14.84 19.51 15.68 19.51 0 1 0 1
a. Based on 1000 replications of the simulation model, path a-d-f had the longest duration in
7% of the replications. Similarly, paths a-c-e-g and b-e-g had the longest durations in 89%
and 4% of the simulation replications, respectively.
This demonstrates the difficulty in determining which path will be the critical path when
activity times are uncertain.
b. The probability of the project being completed in 23 weeks or less was 93%.
5-25
c. The 93% calculated here is extremely close to the 93.1% calculated in Problem 27.
5-26
32. The project referred to in Problem 31 has been partially completed. Task a required 4
weeks, task b 9 weeks, task c 4 weeks, and task d 5 weeks. Update the simulation model
you developed for Problem 31 and calculate the probability that the project will be
finished in 23 weeks. Explain why the probability of completing the project in 23 weeks
has changed.
Since the times for activities are now known for activities a - d, updating the simulation
model simply requires replacing the Assumption Cells in cells A12:D12 with the known
times.
After making these changes, the revised probability of the project being completed by week
23 increases to 98%. With the updated information, path b-e-g now has the longest
expected completion time of 19.34 weeks. Also, the expected completion time for the
other two paths decreases and these paths have virtually no chance of taking longer than
23 weeks to complete. Furthermore, while task b is now known to take its maximum
duration, even if tasks e and g take as long as possible, the path would only take at most 24
weeks to complete. Therefore, delaying the project beyond 23 weeks requires that both
tasks e and g go about as poorly as possible, which is not very likely.
5-27
33. Given the project in Problem 30, simulate the completion of the project 1000 times,
assuming that the activity times are at the 99 + level and follow a triangular distribution.
The spreadsheet below was developed to simulate this project using Crystal Ball. Cells
B3:L3 (excluding cell E3) are Assumption Cells for the activity times based on the triangular
distribution and the optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic times given in the problem.
Cells B8:F8 and B10:B12 were defined as Forecast Cells.
A B C D E F G H I J K L
1 Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity Activity
2 A B C D E F G H I J K
3 Duration 6.67 4.67 10.72 6.00 5.33 15.00 13.33 10.67 14.00 12.67 10.00
4
5 Path Path Path Path Path Project
6 ADI BEI BFJ CGJ CHK Duration
7 Duration 26.67 24.00 32.33 36.72 31.39 36.72
8 Critical? 0 0 0 1 0
9
10 P( < 32) 0
11 P( < 34) 0
12 P( < 38) 1
a. Probability of each path becoming the critical path.
Path Probability of Being Critical Path

a-d-i 1%
b-e-i 0%
b-f-j 6%
c-g-j 83%
c-h-k 10%
b. Based on 1,000 replications of the model there is an 8%, 20%, and 60% chance that the
project can be completed in 32, 34, and 38 days, respectively.
c. In part e of problem 30, it was determined that there was a 56+% chance of completing the
project in 38 weeks. In the current simulation, the probability was calculated to be 60%, so
our estimation method wasn’t too far off.. The slight difference may in part be due to the
use of the triangular distribution.
5-28
Suggested Solution to Discussion Problem
34. The following activities were listed during a brainstorming session on product
development. Find the appropriate predecessor-successor relationships and then
construct an AON network to reflect the project using the activity duration times given in
the information table. Assume a 5-day workweek. Find the critical path and time for the
project. Find the slack for all activities.
Note: If students use MSP to generate the AON network, and if they use a “Start” node to
begin the project, the Start node will be numbered “1.” This will increase by one all the task
numbers used in the problem statement. This is a common source of confusion in reality as
well as in the classroom.
This problem intentionally leaves some of the precedence relationships subject to

interpretation to force students to think through the precedence relationships. This is in
contrast to most problems that clearly state what the precedence relationships are which in
turn leaves little room for students to develop skills in determining precedence
relationships. Thus, this problem points out the important reality that people can disagree
about what the precedence relationships are, and that when people try to explain
something this can often leave a lot of room for interpretation. This reinforces the need for
people to be very careful in their description of the tasks comprising the project.
There appear to be two activities that have no logical predecessors:
o Organize the sales office.

o Design the package.
The critical path is 7-8-10-9-13 with a time of 37 weeks.
5-29
9
7 8 10
11 12 13
1 2 3
End
Start
4 5 6
5-30
Incident for Discussion Suggested Answer
Springville Fire Department:
The scheduling techniques mentioned are not mutually exclusive, they are complementary and
could be used together:
o PERT/CPM serves well for planning and control.

o A Gantt chart would provide the ease of use, showing durations, monitoring and on-
going analysis.
It might also be noted that CPM has traditionally been favored by the construction industry.
Question: If you were the project manager, which method would you use, and why?
If only one technique must be used, the modified PERT/CPM method, plotted on a time scale,
would probably be the best choice.
Attack of the Killer Worm
Question: How would you recommend they reach a consensus on the action plan for the
project?
Andy and Lee need to set up a win-win negotiation of the steps in the action plan.
Andy needs to:
o Acknowledge that by his using a bottom-up approach to his budget for this project the
staff actually doing the work may have overestimated the time it takes to ensure that
the work gets done and/or may have wanted to increase their overtime pay.
o Needs to educate Lee on the impact of the project on the organization.
o Explain how his staff are closer to the users and can estimate how the PC or system
downtime will affect their customer’s work processes.
Lee needs to realize that:
o Andy and his team have a much better idea of how long it will take to check the
machines and make any necessary repairs.
Together they can work to make sure that each other’s point of view is taken into consideration
for the steps of the project.
5-31
Suggested Case Analyses and Solutions
St. Dismas Assisted Living Facility Project Plan -- 3
Teaching Purpose: This installment of the St. Dismas case provides students with an
opportunity to further develop their skills in creating and using Gantt charts.
Question 1: Draw a Gantt chart for the construction phase of the project. What is the
completion date if construction starts in March? What is the completion date of the project if
construction is started in November?
The following is the Gantt chart using MSP with a March 1, 2000 start date. This was entered
using the standard calendar defaults used by MSP of a Monday through Friday 8 am to 5 pm
workday with an hour off for lunch. The project completion date is 7/30/01.
Note: Start and finish milestones were added to the action plan for ease in identifying the
project’s start and finish dates.
The following is the Gantt chart using MSP with a November 9, 1999 start date. This start date
was chosen because one of the constraints placed on the project was that it does not begin
until after the elections in November. Elections are usually held the first Tuesday in the month
of November. The case stated that one to two months was estimated as needing to be added
to the project schedule to allow for bad weather conditions during the outside construction
phases of the project (30 - 60 working days). Days of work need to be added to the duration of
each of the steps where work takes place outside if it will happen during the winter months.
Note: The authors chose to add 30 days to each of the steps affected, step # 4 and #5. Step #6
is also work done outside, but with the changes made to #4 and #5, step #6 will not start until
the month of April. Students may also change the calendars to let the workers off for the
holidays of 1999 in addition to those allowed for in 2000. The new ending date is May 18,
2001. The project will take a total of 30 additional days to complete. By adding 30 days of
working time to each of the steps possibly affected by the weather, we only ended up adding
30 days total to the project.
5-32
This is a good discussion point of how the tasks affected by the increased durations were not
both on the critical path - only Step #4 extended the length of the project. However, the
student’s must keep in mind resource availability and the increased cost of the project
extension.
Question 2: Why is it not possible to meet the scheduling constraints set by the Board? What
is your recommendation to handle the scheduling problem?
The case outlined two specific constraints that the Board placed on the project:
o The project should not start until after the elections in November, and
o The building must be ready for occupancy by July of the following year since the board
wanted to target occupancy for the summer months.
The constraint of the building opening by July of the year following construction beginning
cannot be met. No matter when the project begins it takes longer than one year to complete.
If the project begins immediately after the November 1999 elections it will be completed by
May 18, 2001, if the project begins in March of 2000 (as recommended by the construction
manager) it will be completed by July 30, 2001.
The constraint of construction beginning after the November elections can be met without any
affect on the project. Meeting the July complete occupancy constraint is possible only if the
project is started in the winter months, this would add cost and time to the project. It would
also make the first units available in April, which is before the targeted “summer” occupancy.
Recall that the case stated that research showed that most people shopped for assisted living
facilities during the summer months. A summer occupancy could be met by starting the project
March 1, 2000, without additional time or cost added to the original estimated project action
plan. 45 units would be available for occupancy as early as June 25, 2001 (see step #9 of Gantt
chart with 3/1/00 start date).
5-33
Question 3: When will the project be completed based on your recommendation?
If students chose to start the project on:
o March 1, 2000 … the entire project will be completed by July 31, 2001.
o February 1, 2000 … without any schedule changes due to weather conditions, the
project would be completed by June 29, 2001.
By using MSP to change the project’s start date, students can easily choose various new start
dates and see the associated project end date.
Question 4: Draw a Gantt Chart of the Marketing Plan and Implementation Phase of the
Project. Determine the start date of the Marketing Plan phase of the project in order to meet
your recommended facility ready for occupancy date?
Note: We assumed a March 1, 2000 start date for the project.
Below is the Gantt chart for the steps in the Marketing Plan and Implementation phase of the
St. Dismas Assisted Living Project. The action steps were taken directly from the Marketing
plan developed and implemented section of the broad marketing plan that was presented in
the case.
To determine the project’s start date, you must first determine the start date of the final step in
the project action plan, “Implementation of the Marketing Plan”. This must be started 5
months prior to the building being ready for occupancy so that marketing has time to find
residents to move in when the facility is available. The marketing plan must be implemented
based on the date that the first 45 units are ready for residents. This date is June 25, 2001.
In order to determine the start date of the Implementation task, Step #7, one can schedule this
project backwards, we know the completion date, we do not know when to start. Once we
enter the projects completion date, MSP will determine when each step of the project should
take place. First enter all of the tasks names, precedences, and their durations, as shown
below:
5-34
Next, we must enter this project’s overall finish date, using the project information dialog box,
found in the “Project” menu on the tool bar.
Enter an end date of 6/25/01, and select “Schedule from the project finish date”. MSP will
automatically determine each step’s start and end date to meet the constraint you set. See
below:
Question 5: What is the next step the team members must take in order to complete their
action plans?
Each member of the project steering team needs to prepare final action plans, including dates
and resources. The team must also determine the predecessors from outside their specific plan
that link to their plans; for example if a step cannot be completed on the marketing phase of
the project until Legal has completed a step in their project plan, this must be noted on the
action plan. This will enable a complete overall integrated project action plan to be tied to the
project budget, monitored and controlled.
5-35
Nutristar
Teaching Purpose: The purpose of this case is to reinforce students’ skills in analyzing projects
with probabilistic time estimates. The case also provides students with an opportunity to use
spreadsheets to simulate the completion of the project and use the results of the simulation to
perform standard probability calculations.
Question 1: Draw a network diagram for this project. Identify all the paths through the
network diagram.
The following abbreviations will be used for the activities.
Activity Description Abbreviation

Concept Development A
Plan Development
Define project scope B
Develop broad schedule C
Detailed cost estimates D
Develop staffing plan E
Design and Construction
Detailed engineering F
Facility construction G
Mobilization of construction H
Employees
Procurement of equipment I
Start-up and Turnover
Pre-startup inspection J
Recruiting and training K
Solving start-up problems L
Centerlining M
Using these abbreviations and the information provided in the case, the following AOA network
diagram can be constructed.
B F
G
A C H I J K
D
L M
E
5-36
5-37
There are 32 paths through the network as follows
A, B, F, G, J, K, M A, D, F, G, J, K, M
A, B, F, G, J, L, M A, D, F, G, J, L, M
A, B, F, I, J, K, M A, D, F, I, J, K, M
A, B, F, I, J, L, M A, D, F, I, J, L, M
A, B, H, G, J, K, M A, D, H, G, J, K, M
A, B, H, G, J, L, M A, D, H, G, J, L, M
A, B, H, I, J, K, M A, D, H, I, J, K, M
A, B, H, I, J, L, M A, D, H, I, J, L, M
A, C, F, G, J, K, M A, E, F, G, J, K, M
A, C, F, G, J, L, M A, E, F, G, J, L, M
A, C, F, I, J, K, M A, E, F, I, J, K, M
A, C, F, I, J, L, M A, E, F, I, J, L, M
A, C, H, G, J, K, M A, E, H, G, J, K, M
A, C, H, G, J, L, M A, E, H, G, J, L, M
A, C, H, I, J, K, M A, E, H, I, J, K, M
A, C, H, I, J, L, M A, E, H, I, J, L, M
Question 2: Simulate the completion of this project 1,000 times assuming that activity times
follow a betaPert distribution. Estimate the mean and standard deviation of the project
completion time.
As demonstrated in the textbook, one approach to simulate the completion of a project is to

dedicate a column to each activity and then generate random activity times. Thus, in the
spreadsheet developed for this case, columns A - M were dedicated to activities A - M,
respectively. Then random numbers were generated for the activities using Crystal Ball and
defining cells A3:M3 as Assumption Cells. A portion of the simulation model is shown below.
After generating the random numbers in the Assumption Cells using the betaPert distribution,
one column is dedicated to each path and formulas are entered to calculate the path
completion time based on the random activity times generated. Entering the formulas is very
straightforward since the letters used to label the activities correspond directly to the column
labels. To illustrate, the formula for path A - B - F- G - J - K - M in row three is:
=A3+B3+F3+G3+J3+K3+M3.
To determine the time to complete the project, a final column was entered that calculates the
maximum path completion time across all paths in the spreadsheet. The average of this
5-38
column was next defined as a Forecast cell. One simulation of 1,000 replications of the project
yielded an average project completion time of 35.6 months with a standard deviation of 5.3
months. The maximum completion time was 51.1 months and the minimum completion time
was 22.5 months.
Question 3: Develop a histogram to summarize the results of your simulation.
This histogram created by Crystal Ball is shown below.
Question 4: Calculate the probability that the project can be completed within 30 months.
What is the probability that the project will take longer than 40 months? What is the
probability that the project will take between 30 and 40 months?
The probability of completing the project in 30 months or less is 14.89%:
5-39
The probability of the project taking more than 40 weeks is 19.64%:
The probability of the project taking 30 to 40 months is 65.47%:
5-40
5-41
Launching E-Collar
Question 1: The activities, paths, and times are shown below:
Questions 2 and 3: The results will vary given the randomness inherent in simulation analysis.
Below are the results from 3 different replications of the Crystal Ball model. Note that each
replication below is based on simulating the project 1,000 times.
Probability
Mean and Std Project will
Dev of Probability of Take Between
Completion Mean and Std Dev of Costs < 350 to 450
Replication Time Amount Client Billed $100,000 Hours
1 412.46; 67.53 $91,034; $19,324 69.96% 51.71%
2 413.71; 66.99 $91,074; $18,939 70.22% 53.07%
3 414.32; 66.39 $91,434; $18,874 68.20% 53.46%
Question 4: Providing an estimate for the project cost and duration depends on the certainty
level desired. The table below summarizes the cost and duration such that you have the
probability specified of not exceeding the estimates (estimates in the table are based on
Replication 3 above). For example, there is a 90% probability that the costs and duration of the
project will be less than or equal to $116,442 and 502.76 hours, respectively. Note that
because the data is skewed, the 50% estimates in the table below differ from the means in the
table above.
5-42
Project Management in Practice 5th Edition Meredith Solutions Manual
Probability of Not Exceeding

Costs and Duration Costs Duration (hours)
50% $90,730 410.88
60% $95,502 430.42
70% $100,756 449.70
80% $107,097 471.72
90% $116,442 502.76
95% $124,013 523.99
99% $139,818 576.73
Below is sample of the way the Crystal Ball model can be set up with assumption cells shaded
green and the forecast cells shaded in blue.
5-43
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Another random document with
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provisions. "By reason whereof," says Sir Walter Raleigh, "our ships being
all pestered and romaging everything out of order, very light for want of
ballast, and that which was most to our disadvantage, the one halfe part of
the men of every shippe being sicke and utterly unserviceable; for in the
Revenge there were ninety diseased: in the Bonaventure not so many in
health as could handle her main-saile. The rest, for the most part, were in
little better state."
The island had shrouded the approach of the Spaniards since they were
first seen, and now the enemy hove in sight again full near, and our ships
had scarce time to weigh their anchors, but some of them were driven to
slip their cables and set sail.
Sir Richard was the last that weighed anchor, for he had waited to
recover his men that were upon the island, who otherwise would have been
lost—"Choosing," says Sir Richard Hawkins, "rather to sacrifice his life,
and to pass all danger whatsoever, than to fail in his obligation, by
gathering together those who were ashore; though with the hazard of his
ship and company."
Raleigh and Hawkins agree in giving this high motive.
Sir William Monson says: "When the Lord Thomas warily, and like a
discreet general, weighed anchor and made signs to the rest of his fleet to
do the like, with a purpose to get the wind of them, Sir Richard Grenville,
being a stubborn man, and imagining this fleet to come from the Indies, and
not to be the Armada of which they had been informed, would by no means
be persuaded by his master, or company, to cut his cable and follow his
admiral; nay, so headlong and rash he was, that he offered violence to those
that advised him so to do. But the old saying, that a wilful man is the cause
of his own woe, could not be more truly verified than in him; for when the
Armada approached, and he beheld the greatness of the ships, he began to
see and repent of his folly, and when it was too late, would have freed
himself of them, but in vain."
Severe criticism like this, imputing low motives, is in most cases

overdone. How does Monson know that Grenville mistook the fleet for
treasure-ships? it is a mere surmise, for which there is no evidence. Again,
where does Sir Richard seem to repent of his folly? We have Sir Walter
Raleigh's statement to the contrary; he says:—
"The Lord Thomas with the rest very hardly recovered the wind, which
Sir Richard not being able to do, was persuaded by the master and others to
cut his main-sail, and cast about, and to trust to the sailing of his ship; for
the squadron of Seville were on his weather-bow. But Sir Richard utterly
refused to turn from the enemie, alledging that he would rather choose to
die, than to dishonour himself, his country and her Majesty's ship:
persuading his company that he would pass through the two squadrons in
spite of them, and enforce those of Seville to give way."
Here we have the true motives in the mind of this proud seaman. First,
he would not, for any fear of Spain, leave his men behind to be tortured by
the Inquisition. Secondly, his pride in his country and his Queen forbade
him to fly, however numerous the foe.
No doubt he was a stubborn man—he meant to do what he thought

right, and also what he thought within his power to accomplish. He did not
foresee the accident which rendered his ship helpless, for boldly he sailed
right into the crowd of Spanish galleys; the foremost of them "sprang their
luff" and fell under his lee. As he sailed in and out, exchanging broadsides
and avoiding collisions, "the great San Felipe, being in the wind of him and
coming towards him, becalmed his sails in such sort that the ship could
neither make way nor feel the helm; so huge and high-carged was the
Spanish ship, being of 1500 tons."
This it was that prevented him from forcing his way through the
Armada. Raleigh says, no doubt the other course—sailing away from the
foe—had been the better: "Notwithstanding, out of the greatness of his
mind, he could not be persuaded." So the San Felipe and some others
closed upon the unmoving Revenge; she could not stir upon the water, being
becalmed. Amongst others that lay close to board her was the admiral of the
Biscayans, a very large and strong ship; she carried three tier of guns on a
side, and eleven pieces in every tier. She shot eight forth right out of her
chase, besides those of her stern ports.
While the Revenge was entangled with this ship, four other vessels tried
to board her, two on her larboard, and two on her starboard side.
The fight began at three in the afternoon and it did not end till dawn
next morning, Grenville and his men fighting as Englishmen have seldom
fought before or since. The great San Felipe received the lower tier of the
Revenge, discharged with cross-bar shot into her bowels. She soon shifted
herself from the Revenge with all diligence, "utterly misliking her first
entertainment."
The Spanish ships were filled with soldiers, from two hundred in the
smaller to eight hundred in the largest; in the Revenge there were only
mariners, a few servants of the officers, and some gentlemen volunteers.
Ever and again attempts were made to board the Revenge, but always
the Spaniards were beaten back in their own ships with yell and blow.
At first the George Noble of London stayed close by under the lee of the
Revenge, having some shot through her. Her captain asked Sir Richard what
orders he had for him, being but one of the victuallers and of small force:
"Go, save thyself and thy crew, friend; leave me, I pray thee, to my
fortune."
As the fight went on hour after hour, ever one ship coming on and going
away hurt, while two others were ready to take its place, many of the crew
of the Revenge were slain or hurt, and towards nightfall one of the great
galleons of the Armada and the admiral of the hulks were both sunk, while
the decks of other vessels were crowded with groaning wounded.
Sir Richard, though sore wounded himself, never forsook the upper
deck. His eyes were everywhere, directing and encouraging and bidding his
men think of the gracious Queen and their homes in fair England: "We are
fighting for honour, lads, and our country and this good ship!"
An hour before midnight, Raleigh tells us, Sir Richard was shot in the
body with a musket as he was dressing; anon he was shot also in the head
shortly after, and withal his chirurgeon was wounded to death, as he
stooped over him.
From three of the clock in the previous afternoon, fifteen several great
galleons had assailed her, as well as many small barques. So ill did they like
their treatment that ere the morning dawned they began to desire some
terms of surrender to be offered. The men in the Revenge, too, as the day
waxed and the light grew stronger, began to mark how their wounded
increased and their fighting men grew scanty. They glanced out over the
bulwarks and saw none but enemies baying them round, save one small
ship, the Pilgrim, commanded by Jacob Whiddon, who hovered round all
night to see what success should fall out; but in the dawning, being seen of
the Spaniards, the Pilgrim was hunted away like a hare from a field of
wheat amongst many ravenous hounds, all giving tongue and sending their
fiery breath towards her; but she was a fast sailer, and by God's blessing
escaped their clutches.
SIR RICHARD GRENVILLE AND THE "REVENGE"
Off Flores there took place the pluckiest fight ever recorded in Naval history. The little
English ship, manned by only a hundred able men, was beset by a powerful Armada
containing many thousands of soldiers; the fight lasted from 3 p.m. until the following
morning, and not until all the powder was gone, every spar shot away, and most of the
crew, including Sir Richard, disabled, did she surrender.
In the beginning of the fight the little Revenge had only one hundred
men free from sickness and able to fight, four-score and ten sick men lay in
the hold upon the ballast. These hundred men had had to sustain the volleys,
boarding, and hand-to-hand encounters for sixteen hours on end, whereas
the Spaniards were well supplied with fresh men brought from every
squadron; arms and powder they had at will, and the comfort of knowing
they had strong friends near. The English saw no hope before them—only
honourable death, if so be; their ship's masts were all beaten overboard, all
her tackle cut asunder, her upper works altogether razed, so that she was
well-nigh brought even with the water, and could not stir except as she was
moved by tide and wave. All her powder was now spent to the last barrel,
all her pikes broken, forty of her best men slain, and most of the rest sorely
hurt. For they had borne eight hundred charges of heavy artillery and
rounds of small shot without number, and at last began to stare at one
another as men desperate who have lost their last chance of life.
The Armada were now floating all round the Revenge, not too near, for
they suspected danger from her still.
Then Sir Richard sent for the master-gunner, whom he knew to be a

most resolute man, and bade him split and sink the ship.
"And Sir Richard cried in his English pride,

'We have fought such a fight for a day and a night
As may never be fought again!
We have won great glory, my men,
And a day less or more, at sea or ashore,—
We die—does it matter when?
Sink me the ship, Master Gunner, sink her, split her in twain!
Fall into the hands of God, not into the hands of Spain!"
—
TENNYSON.
So Sir Richard sought to persuade the company, or as many as he could

induce, to yield themselves unto God, and to the mercy of none else. The
master-gunner readily consented, and so did divers others; but the captain
and the master were of another opinion, and besought Sir Richard to have
care of them, for many of them might live yet to serve their prince and
country. They reminded him that the ship had six foot of water in her hold,
three shot under water, which were so weakly stopped that with the first
working of the sea she must needs sink; and she was, besides, so crushed
and bruised that she could never be removed out of the place.
As the matter was thus in dispute, and as Sir Richard, where he lay, still
refused to hearken to any reason, the master was convoyed aboard the
General Don Alphonso Baçan, who promised that all their lives should be
saved, the crew should be sent to England, and the better sort should pay
such reasonable ransom as their estate would bear, and in the meantime
might be free from galley or prison. The Don agreed to this so much the
rather as he desired to get possession of Sir Richard, whom for his notable
valour he greatly honoured and admired.
On this message being delivered, the crew naturally wished to accept

the terms and drew back from the master-gunner, who, in a frenzy of grief
for his admiral's dishonour, as he thought, drew his sword and would have
slain himself on the spot, had not his friends withheld him from it by force
and locked him into his cabin.
Then Don Alphonso asked Sir Richard to come out of the Revenge, the
ship being marvellous unsavoury, filled with blood and dead bodies and
wounded men, like any slaughter-house. To which Sir Richard replied that
the Spaniard might do with his body what he list, for he esteemed it not. As
they bore him out of the ship, he swooned; when he recovered, he was on
the Spaniard's deck, and looking about him said, "I desire you, gentlemen,
to pray for me."
The Spanish admiral used Sir Richard with all humanity and tended him
well, highly commending his valour and worthiness; but the English hero
died on the third day and was buried at sea with all honour.
As he lay surrounded by Spanish hidalgos, who were trying to comfort

him in his agony, the dying man half raised himself and said:
"Here die I, Richard Grenville, with a joyful and quiet mind, for that I
have ended my life as a good soldier ought to do, who has fought for his
country and his Queen, for honour and religion. Wherefore my soul joyfully
departeth out of this body, leaving behind it an everlasting fame, as a true
soldier who hath done his duty as he was bound to do. But the other of my
company have done as traitors and dogs, for which they shall be reproached
all their lives."
Lord Thomas Howard did not deserve this condemnation, for he wished
to attempt a rescue, but his men refused to follow.
A few days after the fight a great storm from the north-west scattered
the fleet, and fourteen Spanish ships went down, together with the Revenge,
off St. Michael's Isle. It seemed to the English that Heaven was on the side
of the Revenge, for 10,000 Spaniards perished in that storm.
Sir Richard Hawkins, correcting Raleigh's account, wrote that there

were on board the Revenge "above 260 men, as by the pay-book appeareth
—all which may worthily be written in our chronicles in letters of gold, in
memory for all posterities, some to beware, others to imitate, the true valour
of our nation in these ages."
CHAPTER VIII
JOHN DAVIS, THE HERO OF THE ARCTIC
AND PACIFIC
John Davis was born near the Gilberts' home about 1550, on the left
bank of the Dart, not far from Dartmouth. His father was a yeoman owning
a small farm in Sandridge, being part of the parish of Stoke Gabriel. The
little inlet or harbour is called Stoke Creek, at the head of which stands the
old church; in this are kept the records of the marriage of John Davis. The
lordly manor-house of the Pomeroys seemed to look down from its height
upon winding river and grove of oaks—the playing-ground of so many
heroes—the three Gilberts, Davis, and Walter Raleigh. The boys had only to
run down over two pastures and they were at the Cove, overhung with
drooping boughs and trailing with dog-roses and honeysuckle. The village
of Dittisham, with its plum and apple orchards, its drying nets and rocking-
boats, meets the gaze as you look across the lake-like reach of the river....
Greenaway Court, the Gilberts' home, stood up among the woods to the
south, and no doubt Adrian Gilbert and the Carew boys and Raleigh must
often have raced in their skiffs, or listened to seamen's stories of the doings
of John Hawkins in the West Indies. There was another house not far from
Dittisham, where Davis as a boy may well have visited, the home of Sir
John Fulford, who had two sons of the same age as the younger Gilberts,
and four daughters, of whom Faith in after years became the wife of John
Davis. John was of course not socially the equal of the others, but his
exploits and fame levelled all distinctions as he grew older; and when he
was a boy, no doubt he was a brave, modest fellow, good enough to play
with his superiors.
Whether John Davis went to the new grammar-school at Totnes we do

not know, but it is clear that he was sent to sea at an early age, and studied
deeply the science of his profession; for by the time he was twenty-eight he
was known to merchants as a captain of great skill and experience.
John returned home in 1579, passing six years at Sandridge, and no

doubt enjoying many a sail up the river with Miss Faith Fulford and her
sisters.
We can see by the Parish Register that John married Faith on September
29, 1582; they had a pleasant neighbour in Adrian Gilbert, who had married
the widow of Andrew Fulford, and was living in the Pomeroy manor-house.
Adrian was now a doctor of medicine and an able mathematician, deeply
interested in geographical discovery and the science of minerals.
There was a learned geographer, Dr. Dee, living at Mortlake, to whom

Adrian one day introduced John Davis; after that they often met and
discussed the North-west Passage and other problems of the day. One day in
1585 Secretary Walsingham called in and heard their arguments: a route to
the Indies which should be clear of all claims on the part of the Spanish and
Portuguese interested the minister.
Having won Walsingham's interest, the two Devon scientists next tried
to persuade the merchants of London to join them; then they rode all the
way to Exeter and Dartmouth to induce wealthy merchants there to
subscribe. Raleigh was at this time high in Court favour; he had been
knighted the year before, and was growing rich upon the Queen's gifts. He
induced her Majesty to grant a charter to himself, Adrian Gilbert, and John
Davis, "for the search and discovery of the North-west Passage to China."
Raleigh was at this time very busy with his Virginia colony, but he found
time to help his old school-friends.
The expedition, preparing in 1585, consisted of two small ships, the

Sunshine of London of 50 tons, and the Moonshine of Dartmouth of 35
tons. Davis commanded the Sunshine, with a crew of eleven seamen, four
musicians, a carpenter and a boy, and four officers; they sailed out of
Dartmouth harbour on the 7th of June 1585. Davis was now in his thirty-
sixth year, and one of the best seamen of his day. Though only the son of a
yeoman farmer, he had made many valuable friends, such as Dr. Dee, the
Gilberts, Raleigh, Walsingham, the Earl of Warwick, and Mr. Sanderson, a
rich city merchant; the Earl of Cumberland and Lord Lumley had sought his
acquaintance. What is more, Davis was beloved by the men under his
command, for he was ever thoughtful of their welfare both before he sailed
and after he returned home; for his kindness proceeded from the heart.
In these scientific days of Arctic discovery we have learnt what sort of

food and clothing is best for our explorers; in those days all was in the
experimental stage. Their provisions consisted of cod and salt-meat, bread
and grease, butter and cheese and beer.
As they were obliged to anchor for twelve days off the Scilly Isles,
Davis took the opportunity of making a survey of all the islands, the rocks
and havens. When they got out into the Atlantic they had some sport trying
to harpoon porpoises, the flesh of which they thought as good as mutton.
Whales too were seen in much larger numbers than are found now; for like
many other interesting and valuable species, whales have been recklessly
destroyed through the greed of man.
On the 19th of July, in a dense mist, they heard "a mighty great
roaring"; Captain Davis had a boat lowered and rowed to find out the cause
thereof. He found that the ships were close to some pack-ice, the large
fragments of which were grinding together. Next day was clear, and they
saw the snow-clad mountains of Greenland, but could not land for the ice;
here they saw many seals and white birds. They rounded the southern point
of Greenland, and were in the channel that lies between Greenland and
Labrador. Finding a fiord some miles up the coast he named it Gilbert
Sound, after his friend and his first-born child. It was near this spot that
they heard the Eskimos shouting, so Davis took a boat and four musicians,
as it was known the natives loved music. In a short time perfect confidence
was established and they began to barter, kayaks or boats and native
clothing being in some demand. Later they managed to kill a Polar bear,
which came in useful, as the men were clamouring for better food.
They next sailed west, and explored Cumberland Gulf. On landing they
heard dogs barking, and when they came up very gently, "we thought they
came to prey upon us and therefore we shot two; but about the neck of one
of them we found a leathern collar, whereupon we thought them to be tame
dogs." After this a strong north-west wind blew, and as it was near the end
of August they resolved to return to England, and arrived at Dartmouth on
the 30th of September.
Adrian Gilbert gave his friend Davis a warm welcome home, and of
course wife and child made home more homelike. But not many days after
his arrival the explorer wrote to Walsingham, "The North-west Passage is a
matter nothing doubtful, but at any tyme almost to be passed, the sea
navigable, voyd of yse, the ayre tolerable, and the waters very depe."
We notice that the spelling of all words of Latin origin is good; it is the
English word that varies most from our spelling. Anyway, he is far superior
in education to the Earl of Cumberland.
Davis also pointed out in his letter how good an opening there was in
the lands he had discovered for trade in oil and furs.
A hasty visit to London resulted in many merchants subscribing for a

second voyage, and the Mermaid, the Sunshine, Moonshine, and North Star,
a small pinnace, were chartered for it. They sailed from Dartmouth on the
7th of May 1586, and coasted along the south shore of Ireland; then Captain
Pope in the Sunshine, with the North Star as a tender, was despatched to
search for a passage northward between Greenland and Iceland, while
Davis went as far as the southern end of Greenland, But the pack-ice made
it impossible to land, so naming the cape "Farewell" he again entered Davis
Straits. On reaching Gilbert Sound he met so violent a gale that he was
obliged to take shelter among the islands which fringe the shore.
Davis writes: "We sent our boats to search for shoal water, where we
might anchor, and as the boat went sounding and searching, the natives
having espied them, came in their canoes towards them with shouts and
cries; but after they had espied in the boat some of our company that were
the year before here with us, they presently rowed to the boat, took hold on
the oar, and hung about the boat with such comfortable joy as would require
a long discourse to be uttered."
Davis, seeing their confidence, went ashore and distributed twenty

knives: "They offered skins to me for reward, but I made signs that they
were not sold, but given them of courtesie." The next day, as the crew were
setting up a new pinnace, more than a hundred canoes came round, bringing
seal-skins and other furs for barter.
Davis and a party went inland, finding a plateau of grass and moss, and
many ravens and small birds. In July, after more exploring, in which the
natives kept him company, Davis organised athletic games, leaping and
wrestling—"In this we found them strong and nimble, for they cast some of
our men that were good wrestlers."
The people were of good stature, with small hands and feet, broad faces,
small deep-set eyes, wide mouths, and beardless; they wore images and
believed in enchantments. But other failings soon appeared, for they were
"marvellous thievish," began to cut the cables, cut away the Moonshine's
boat from her stern, stole oars, a caliver, a boar-spear and swords. Davis
was for forbearance, but his men were angry, and complained heavily, "said
that my lenitie and friendly using of them gave them stomacke to
mischiefe." Still Davis went on giving presents, but at sundown the
Eskimos began throwing stones into the Moonshine, which caused a pursuit
and some shots. At last they captured one of the thieves, and another
followed with lamentation as far as the ship. "At length the fellow aboard us
spake four or five words unto the other and clapped his two hands upon his
face, whereupon the other doing the like, departed as we supposed with
heavy cheer. We judged the covering of the face with his hands and bowing
of his body down, signified his death." But it was not quite so bad as that,
for they gave the captive a new suit of frieze, of which he was very joyful;
he became sociable, trimmed up his darts and fishing tools, and would set
his hand to a rope's end upon occasion.
They soon came upon a mountain of ice and could not get on; the men
grew sick and feeble and begged Davis to return, so he sailed south-east and
found land free from snow. When they came to lat. 67°, they found numbers
of gulls and mews, and caught a hundred cod in half-an-hour. Landing, they
found a black bear, pheasants, partridges, wild ducks, and geese, and killed
some with bow and arrow.
On the 6th of September Davis sent some young sailors ashore to fetch
fish, but they were suddenly assailed in a wood, two being slain by arrows.
Immediately after, a tremendous storm almost drove them on the rocks
among these "cannibals." "But when hope was past, the mighty mercy of
God gave us succour and sent us a fair lee, so as we recovered our anchor
again and now moored our ship, where we saw that God manifestly
delivered us; for the strains of one of our cables were broken, and we only
rode by an old junk."
They reached home in October, bringing five hundred sealskins and
other furs. The Sunshine and North Star made the east coast of Greenland
by July 7th, but found pack-ice, so they sailed round and north to Gilbert
Sound, where the crews played football with the Eskimos. The North Star
was lost in a gale, and the Sunshine came home alone on the 6th of October.
So they had explored a vast extent of unknown coast, and entered many
fiords. They had not found the Northwest Passage, but had found Hudson
Strait, and concluded correctly that the "north parts of America are all
islands."
Had they taken plenty of salt and fishing-tackle they might have brought
home a large cargo of fish, but they brought home the knowledge that a
great trade was possible in the far North. Though Davis, on going west to
his own county, tried to persuade the merchants that another voyage might
be more successful, he did not succeed in rousing their sympathies so far as
to give more subscriptions.
But on going home he found another little son, Arthur, and with his wife
and old friend, Adrian Gilbert, enjoyed a pleasant autumn.
In the winter the restless adventurer rode up to London with Gilbert, and
they visited the merchant-prince, William Sanderson, who gained for Davis
enough help to fit out a third voyage to the Arctic. In our days rich men
have so much scientific spirit that they—some of them—will consent to
subscribe for Arctic and Antarctic voyages for purely scientific purposes. In
the great Queen's days they looked for some return in hard cash, or furs, or
stones and metal of value. But Davis's old shipmates loved him and were
eager to volunteer again, and some were natives of the villages round Stoke
Gabriel.
On the 19th of May 1587, the Sunshine, Elizabeth, and Ellen started
from Dartmouth, the former to fish and make profit. But when they reached
Gilbert Sound Davis resolved to send the two other ships to the fishery,
while he in the Ellen, a pinnace of 20 tons, went north. In estimating the
exploits of these men, we must remember how ill they were fitted out
compared with modern explorers. At the very first the pilot of the Ellen
came to report a leak, and it was debated whether they should risk their
lives in exploring.
But when Davis addressed his little crew and said, "My boys, it will be
far better that we should end our lives with credit than return in disgrace,"
they one and all agreed to go on with their captain.
They went along the west coast of Greenland, calling it the London
Coast, and by the 30th of June had reached lat. 72'12°, the most northerly
point Davis ever reached. Here an island with a cliff 850 feet high was
named "Sanderson his hope"; along the narrow, dark ledges of this giant
rock nestled myriads of white guillemots, screaming and circling as busily
they fed their young.
The sea was clear of ice, save that the Dreadnoughts of the North,
towering icebergs, reflected the sunshine in strange fantastic ways, and
floated proudly down to warmer waters. Beyond them lay "a great sea, free,
large, very salt and blue, and of an unsearchable depth."
But on the 2nd of July they met "the Middle Pack," a hundred miles
long or more, and eight feet thick. The Ellen tried to find a passage through
in vain, so they drifted west till they sighted the western coast of Davis
Strait. Davis took many observations which were useful to succeeding
explorers; he says in his log: "We fell into a mighty race, where an island of
ice was carried by the force of the current as fast as our bark could sail. We
saw the sea falling down into the gulf with a mighty overfall, roaring, with
divers circular motions like whirlpools."
They were to meet the fishing-vessels off the Labrador coast; but these
had gone home without waiting for Davis; and as they were being sought,
the Ellen ran upon a rock and sprung a leak. This was mended with
difficulty in a gale; then, with little fuel and less water, Davis headed for
home. "Being forsaken and left in this distress," he says, "referring myself
to the merciful providence of God, I shaped my course for England, and
unhoped for of any, God alone relieving me, I arrived at Dartmouth."
The log of his third voyage is the only one that has been left, but we
have no means of knowing if the fishing was successful.
When Davis came home all England was talking of a Spanish invasion,
and the Queen had no time to think of him and his discoveries. On reaching
home he found a third little son awaiting him, named John, after his father.
Though London and Greenwich and Exeter neglected Davis for a time,
yet he had done good work in discovering, or mapping afresh many coasts
and seas; he examined rocks and fiords, made notes on the vegetation and
fauna and on the habits and thoughts of the Eskimo tribes; he also explored
the coast of Labrador and called attention to the lucrative trade in whales,
seal, and fish which might be established.
When the Armada came, John Davis was appointed to the command of
a vessel of 20 tons, the Black Dog, to act as a tender to the Lord Admiral,
with a crew of ten men and an armament of three guns. Here Davis was of
use to the flagship as a pilot, for no one had taken more intelligent interest
in surveying the coast and marking shoals than he. We need not go again
through the events of the long fight, but it was in the fight off the Isle of
Wight that Davis saw the fiercest action, when Admiral Oquendo in his
flagship, of 900 tons, rammed the stern of the English flagship, the Ark
Royal, and unshipped her rudder.
After ten days of severe work Davis returned to Plymouth, and was at
home when his fourth child was born, named Philip! Another memorial of
the Armada times was a work on navigation, written by Davis and
dedicated to Lord Howard of Effingham.
The next employment Davis found was to join the Earl of Cumberland's
squadron in the Drake off the Azores, where he probably met Edward
Wright, an eminent mathematician and cosmographer, who had gone to sea
to observe the practical working of problems in nautical astronomy. Davis
himself had invented an instrument for observing the stars, so these two had
much to discuss in common.
It was on this voyage that the English crews suffered so much from
want of water, which was very scarce on the islands. The natives on
Graciosa, on being asked for water, replied that they would rather give two
tons of wine than one of water. They came home with thirteen prizes, and
the money Davis received as his share enabled him to go on an expedition
more to his taste; for he loved peaceful knowledge better than fighting. His
scheme was to go through Magellan's Straits, to navigate the South Sea, and
discover the North-west Passage from the western side.
Magellan, a Portuguese navigator, had only discovered the strait called

by his name seventy years before; it was in 1520 that Magellan first sailed
in and found very deep water. As he passed along, winding to and fro, he
saw so many fires at night lighting up the woods and rocks on the southern
side of the strait, that he named the land "Tierra del Fuego." A snowy peak
far to the south he named "Campana de Roldan," "Roldan's bell"; they were
short of provisions, and the crew murmured and wished to return, but
Magellan, a stern disciplinarian and feared by his men, swore they should
eat the chafing-mats on the rigging rather than return. After thirty-seven
days of sailing through winding reaches that seemed to lead nowhere, and
that stretched a hundred leagues and more, they came out into the South
Pacific; then boldly striking across the ocean to the islands of the far East,
Magellan met his fate at the hands of ruthless savages.
In 1522 Sebastian del Cano, a Basque born on the shores of the Bay of
Biscay, returned to Seville after having been the first to sail round the
world. In 1525 he sailed again from Corunna and passed through the Straits
of Magellan, but died at sea shortly after.
The Spanish Governor of Chili, de Mendoza, fitted out two vessels in

1557 and sent Ladrilleros to explore the straits; this he did under most
appalling hardships; most of his crew died of hunger and cold, and he
brought his ship back to Chili with only two survivors to help him. There
were Spanish heroes in those days as now. Then came Drake, sailing from
Plymouth in November 1577 in the Golden Hind, and finding Magellan's
account of the straits true as to the good harbours, many islands, and plenty
of fresh water, but meeting many violent gales and storms. He was only
sixteen days in the straits, and then sailed far up the western coast of
America up to the 48th degree, where the hills were covered with snow in
June—he was the second to sail round the globe. From Drake's voyage it
was, perhaps, that Davis believed in the possibility of going northwards till
he found an opening on the north-west coast.
In 1586 Cavendish started with three vessels and passed through the
Straits of Magellan and completed the third navigation of the globe.
Chudleigh, another Devon man, was fired by these exploits to do

likewise, and sailed in 1589 with three ships through the Magellan Straits,
where he died. Prince says: "He did not live long enough to accomplish his
generous designs, dying young; although he lived long enough to exhaust a
vast estate."
All these voyages Davis must have carefully studied with his friends,
Sir Walter Raleigh and Adrian Gilbert; the latter of whom joined with him
in the ownership of a ship, the Dainty, and the former helped by ideas,
plans, and subscriptions.
John Davis did not go on this quest to get riches, but solely to get
knowledge; many men thought him a fool, and jeered when he came back
disappointed, but the best men knew his high ambition to be the worthiest.
Perhaps his wife grudged the large stake which he was risking in this
adventure; she and her boys seemed to come only second in his thoughts.
Cavendish went as general on board the Leicester, and owned the

Desire, the ship in which he had sailed round the world; but Cavendish
cared mostly for rich prizes.
John Jones, an old and beloved shipmate, accompanied Davis in the

Desire, 120 tons, and proved a friend in need. The Dainty was commanded
by Captain Cotton, a friend of the Devon group.
The few weeks that Davis spent at home in the summer of 1591 were
his last happy days at Sandridge; but he cheered up his wife with thoughts
of great discoveries and fame and royal favour.
In February a severe storm separated the fleet off the river Plate and
Buenos Ayres, and as Cavendish had not appointed any spot for meeting,
they were some time before they discovered one another in Port Desire.
When they did meet, Davis found the Roebuck seriously damaged, and
heard that the Dainty, his own ship, had deserted and gone home. This was
the first bitter disappointment, for it was in the Dainty that Davis had
intended to go on with his explorations northward.
There were some who suggested that Cavendish wished to knock on the
head Davis's nonsense about Arctic exploring, and they asserted that
Cavendish had told the crew of the Dainty that he wanted them to go into
the river Plate, but that afterwards they might return home with all his heart.
Cavendish abandoned his ship, the Leicester, because he complained

that "he was matched with the most abject-minded and mutinous company
that ever was carried out of England by man living, for they never ceased to
mutiny against him." So he remained on board the Desire as the guest of
Captain Davis.
Port Desire, a good many miles north of the Straits of Magellan, was a
very dreary spot to rest in; steep white cliffs stained by running water
stretched for two miles across the bay; the soil inland was poor, and water
was scarce. The only thing the sailors could find was a sweet-smelling herb
which protected them from scurvy. Nine miles to the south was Penguin
Island, the home of many seals.
On the 20th of March they started again, and reached the straits on the
8th of April. At first the view is desolate and bare, but as you pass the two
narrows and enter the long reach, which runs north and south for a hundred
miles, the hills become thickly wooded with winter's bark and an evergreen
beech, most of them draped in moss and set deep in arbutus and berberis.
High mountains capped with snow stand up to the south, while humming-
birds skimmed the trailing fuchsias.
As they reached the dark frowning rock called Cape Froward, a wintry
gale met them, snowstorms burst upon them, and their only food was
mussels and limpets; they had to anchor for shelter in a little bay for more
than a month.
Anthony Knivet, one of the crew of the Leicester, thus described the
intense cold: "When I came on board with wet feet and began pulling off
my stockings, the toes came off with them: 'tis true! and a shipmate of
mine, Harris by name, lost his nose entirely; for, as he was going to blow it
with his fingers, he cast it incontinently into the fire."
Cavendish now wanted to go back, but Davis assured him the

snowstorms would end, and all would be well, if only they would persevere.
"Then we will go back to the Brazilian coast," said Cavendish, "and obtain
supplies."
So they sailed back through the straits, Cavendish having returned to his
own ship. At Cape Famine Cavendish landed all the sick from the Leicester,
and left them to starve from damp, cold, and hunger.
For the second time Cavendish disappeared in the night without making
any signal; this time he landed his sick on a hot beach under a tropical sun,
and there abandoned them.
Cavendish sailed for England, but died on the way.
In his will he accused Davis of deserting him; but the facts seem to put
the blame for desertion on his own shoulders; or it is possible that each of
these men was waiting for the other, each believing that the other had
deserted him. And our verdict on Cavendish should be modified by the state
of his health, which was evidently broken by anxiety and fear of mutiny, as
well as by the terrible sufferings caused by rough seasons.
In a letter to his executor, which Cavendish wrote before his death, he

says: "Consider whether a heart made of flesh be able to endure so many
misfortunes, all falling upon me without intermission. I thank my God that,
in ending of me, He hath pleased to rid me of all further trouble and
mishaps."
Davis waited for nine weeks in Port Desire for Cavendish; his own
plight was sorry, for his sails were worn-out, his cables chafed and
untrustworthy, and he had lost a boat and oars. However, he resolved to
send the pinnace in search of Cavendish, but two men on board the Desire,
named Charles Parker and Edward Smith, persuaded the crew that Davis
intended to maroon them; they even formed a plot to murder their captain.
This plot was revealed by the boatswain, and Davis, instead of hanging the

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Cases and Readings

A case appropriate to the subject of this chapter is:

A reading appropriate to the subject of this chapter is:

Answers to Review Questions

2. How is slack determined?

Slack for a particular task is calculated by:

5. For the following project,

(a) List all predecessors of task 5.

6. What is a “dummy” activity?

8. What is meant by “project slack”?

Suggested Answers to Discussion Questions

14. When would it be accurate to determine the probability of project completion by

Performance … the performance of a project is measured by three criteria: is it on time? Is

25. Given the information in the following table:

See following spreadsheet:

c. Alternative paths … and the critical path:

Path Duration Critical?

There are, therefore, two critical paths.

d. Each activity’s slack.

See spreadsheet above (section b).

e. The length of time to complete the project.

Path Duration Critical?

The slack for each task is calculated as follows:

b. The precedence diagram using an AOA (Activity on Arrow) network is as follows:

28. Given an auditing project with the following activities:

That information gives the following probabilities:

d. The number of weeks required to assure a 92.5 percent chance of completion, as

CRITICAL PATH: b-f-h

c. PROJECT COMPLETION TIME = 9 weeks

a. Draw the network

b. Calculate the expected time and variance for each activity.

*** ACTIVITY SCHEDULE ***

EARLIEST LATEST EARLIEST LATEST CRITICAL

a 0.00 8.33 6.33 14.67 8.33

CRITICAL PATH: c-g-j

EXPECTED PROJECT COMPLETION TIME = 34.67

VARIANCE OF PROJECT COMPLETION TIME = 9.4675 + 21.3018 + 28.9941 = 59.7633

STANDARD DEVIATION = 7.7307

A Z value of 0.4308 yields a probability of 66.67 percent.

e. Are there any serous sources of merge bias?

a. Probability of each path becoming the critical path.

Path Probability of Being Critical Path

Suggested Solution to Discussion Problem

This problem intentionally leaves some of the precedence relationships subject to

There appear to be two activities that have no logical predecessors:

o Organize the sales office.

The critical path is 7-8-10-9-13 with a time of 37 weeks.

Incident for Discussion Suggested Answer

Springville Fire Department:

o PERT/CPM serves well for planning and control.

* ACTIVITY SCHEDULE *