WTW 115

Unit 4.1: Probabilities

University of Pretoria
Descriptions

Random process: a process where

▶ one outcome from some particular set of outcomes must
occur, and
▶ the outcome is unpredictable in advance.

Sample space: the set of all possible outcomes for a random

process.

Event: a subset of the sample space.

Equally Likely Probability Formula

Let a random process have a finite sample space S in which all

outcomes are equally likely.

Let E be an event in S.

|E |
The probability of E is P(E ), and we define it to be P(E ) = .
|S|
Two coin tosses

We toss a fair coin twice. What is the probability of obtaining

(a) two tails?
(b) one head and one tail (in either order)?

The sample space is

S = {(H, H), (H, T ), (T , H), (T , T )} = {H, T } × {H, T }.

(a) The event is E1 = {(T , T )}.

|E1 | 1
Therefore, the probability is P(E1 ) = = .
|S| 4
(b) The event is E2 = {(H, T ), (T , H)}.
|E2 | 2 1
Therefore, the probability is P(E2 ) = = = .
|S| 4 2
Two dice rolls

Two fair dice, one yellow and one blue, are thrown. What is the
probability that the numbers on the tops of the dice sum to 5?

The sample space is

S = {(y , b) : y ∈ {1, 2, . . . , 6} and b ∈ {1, 2, . . . , 6}}

= {1, 2, . . . , 6} × {1, 2, . . . , 6}
= {(1, 1), (1, 2), . . . , (1, 6),
(2, 1), (2, 2), . . . , (2, 6),
...,
(6, 1), (6, 2), . . . , (6, 6)}.

The event is E = {(1, 4), (2, 3), (3, 2), (4, 1)}.
|E | 4 1
Therefore, the probability is P(E ) = = = .
|S| 36 9
Deck of cards
A card is drawn randomly from a standard deck of 52 cards.

There are four suits: clubs (C, black), diamonds (D, red), hearts
(H, red), and spades (S, black).
Each suit has 13 cards, which are: ace (A), 2, 3, 4, . . . , 10, jack
(J), queen (Q), king (K).

What is the probability that the card is a red face card? (A “face
card” is a jack, queen, or king.)

Sample space

S = {AC, AD, AH, AS, 2C, 2D, 2H, 2S, 3C, 3D, 3H, 3S,
. . . , KC, KD, KH, KS}.

Event E = {JD, JH, QD, QH, KD, KH}.

|E | 6 3
Therefore, the probability is P(E ) = = = .
|S| 52 26
Two-digit positive integers

A two-digit positive integer is chosen randomly. What is the

probability that the chosen integer is divisible by 3?

Sample space S = {10, 11, 12, . . . , 99}.

Event E = {12, 15, 18, . . . , 99}.
|S| = 90.
|E | = |{12, 15, 18, . . . , 99}| = |{4, 5, 6, . . . , 33}| = 30.
|E | 30 1
The probability is P(E ) = = = .
|S| 90 3
(Note: If the number 10 were removed from the sample space,
30
then we would have |S| = 89, |E | = 30, and P(E ) = .)
89
Random positive integers (page 1 of 2)

An integer is randomly chosen from {1, 2, . . . , n}.

Find the probability that the chosen integer is odd
(a) if n is even, and
(b) if n is odd.

(a) Sample space S = {1, 2, . . . , n}; |S| = n.

Event E = {1, 3, 5, . . . , n − 1}.
|En| = |{1, 3, 5, .o. . , n − 1}| = |{2, 4, 6, . . . , n}| =
n n
| 1, 2, 3, . . . , |= .
2 2
|E | n/2 1
Therefore, P(E ) = = = .
|S| n 2
Random positive integers (page 2 of 2)

An integer is randomly chosen from {1, 2, . . . , n}.

Find the probability that the chosen integer is odd
(a) if n is even, and
(b) if n is odd.

(b) Sample space S = {1, 2, . . . , n}; |S| = n.

Event E = {1, 3, 5, . . . , n}.
|E| = |{1, 3, 5, . . . , n}|
 = |{2, 4, 6, . . . , n + 1}| =
n+1 n+1
| 1, 2, 3, . . . , |= .
2 2
|E | (n + 1)/2 n+1
Therefore, P(E ) = = = .
|S| n 2n