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“A much-needed, original, fresh contribution to both the sustainability transitions
and energy studies communities. Extensive in its coverage, and impressive in its
scope, this book offers an insightful and comprehensive analysis of Nigeria’s
past, present, and future energy challenges. Focusing on topics as diverse as
governance, politics, consumers, industrial policy, and the future, it offers highly
generalizable results that should be relevant – and read – by researchers well
beyond West Africa.”
Benjamin K. Sovacool, Professor of Energy Policy at
the University of Sussex, UK, and author of Energy Security,
Equality and Justice as well as Visions of Energy Futures

“Every country in the world is faced with the need for massive changes to their
energy infrastructure in order to meet the climate emergency that we now face.
To do this understanding what has shaped our current energy systems is vital and
in Electricity and Energy Transition in Nigeria the history of energy systems in
Nigeria is clearly laid out and discussed within the context of this future
challenge.”
Aled Jones, Professor and Director of the Global
Sustainability Institute, Anglia Ruskin University Cambridge, UK

“A keen insight and good read on the role of policy, politics and governance in
Nigerian energy supply infrastructure.”
Liz Varga, Professor of Complex Systems Infrastructure,
University College London, UK

“A look beyond questions of technology and investments is very much needed in

order to give direction to the development of the Nigerian electricity market. One
cannot deny the fear that population growth will outpace electricity provision for
the next few decades, whilst policy making seems slow and profit oriented. Crea-
tive disruptions in the decentralized renewable energy sector point to innovations
and ‘made in Nigeria’ solutions, which now need to be taken into account by
policy makers. Insights into the political dynamics for achieving step change and
providing more power to the millions of Nigerians whose productive energies
wait to be liberated, are very welcome!”
Christine K, Director Heinrich Boell Foundation
Nigeria Office (2010–2019)

“The author is well-informed in energy and its components. The book analyses
Nigeria’s energy situation from historical, present and future dimensions. The
book highlights the inevitable need to change the energy policies, models of
energy distribution and sources of energy supply. Surprisingly the book also
highlights possible future models of electricity.”
Sanusi Ohiare, Executive Director, Rural Electrification
Fund (REF), Rural Electrification Agency of Nigeria
Electricity and Energy Transition
in Nigeria

Electricity and Energy Transition in Nigeria provides readers with a detailed

account of the dynamics of energy infrastructure change in Nigeria’s electricity
sector.
The book starts by introducing the basic theories underpinning the politics of
energy infrastructure supply and goes on to explore the historical dimensions
of the Nigerian energy transition by highlighting the influences and drivers of
energy systems change. Edomah also examines the political dynamics at play,
highlighting the political actors and institutions that shape energy supply, as well
as the impact of consumer politics. The book concludes by considering how all
these factors may influence the future of energy in Nigeria.
This book will be of great interest to students and scholars of energy trans-
itions, energy technology and infrastructure, and African Studies more
generally.

Norbert Edomah is a Senior Lecturer at the School of Science and Technology,

Pan-Atlantic University Lagos, Nigeria. His research interests include: industrial
energy efficiency and cleaner production; influences underlying changes in
energy supply infrastructure; politics of energy infrastructure supply; public
policy to improve energy security; and planning and organization of the electricity
markets in developing African countries. He is keen on understanding how
people respond to (and influence) changes in energy infrastructure systems.
Routledge Explorations in Energy Studies

Energy Poverty and Vulnerability

A Global Perspective
Edited by Neil Simcock, Harriet Thomson, Saska Petrova and
Stefan Bouzarovski

The Politics of Energy Security

Critical Security Studies, New Materialism and Governmentality
Johannes Kester

Renewable Energy for the Arctic

New Perspectives
Edited by Gisele M. Arruda

Decarbonising Electricity Made Simple

Andrew F Crossland

Wind and Solar Energy Transition in China

Marius Korsnes

Sustainable Energy Education in the Arctic

The Role of Higher Education
Gisele M. Arruda

Electricity and Energy Transition in Nigeria

Norbert Edomah

For more information about this series, please visit: www.routledge.com/­

Routledge-Explorations-in-Energy-Studies/book-series/REENS
Electricity and Energy
Transition in Nigeria

Norbert Edomah
First published 2020
by Routledge
2 Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon OX14 4RN
and by Routledge
52 Vanderbilt Avenue, New York, NY 10017
Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business
© 2020 Norbert Edomah
The right of Norbert Edomah to be identified as author of this work has been
asserted by him in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs
and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known
or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information
storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers.
Trademark notice: Product or corporate names may be trademarks or registered
trademarks, and are used only for identification and explanation without intent to
infringe.
British Library Cataloguing-in-Publication Data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names: Edomah, Norbert, author.
Title: Electricity and energy transition in Nigeria / Norbert Edomah.
Description: New York : Routledge, 2020. | Includes bibliographical
references and index.
Identifiers: LCCN 2019046988 (print) | LCCN 2019046989 (ebook) | ISBN
9780367201418 (hardback) | ISBN 9780367201456 (ebook)
Subjects: LCSH: Energy development–Nigeria. | Energy policy–Nigeria. |
Electric utilities–Nigeria. | Infrastructure (Economics)–Nigeria.
Classification: LCC HD9685.N62 E36 2020 (print) | LCC HD9685.N62
(ebook) | DDC 333.793209669–dc23
LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019046988
LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2019046989

ISBN: 978-0-367-20141-8 (hbk)

ISBN: 978-0-367-20145-6 (ebk)
Typeset in Times New Roman
by Wearset Ltd, Boldon, Tyne and Wear
Contents

List of figuresix
List of tablesxi
Acknowledgementsxii

1 Introduction 1

PART I
Energy demand and supply theories 11

2 Theories underpinning electricity demand and

infrastructure supply 13

PART II
Historical dimensions of the Nigerian energy transitions 47

3 What really happened? The evolution of energy

infrastructure provision (1800–2018)  49

4 What triggered change? Influences and drivers of energy

systems change 66

PART III
Political dynamics of energy systems change 81

5 Governing energy: exploring the political influences of

energy systems change in the electricity sector 83

6 Governance and transitions: the role of political actors and

institutions in energy systems change 99
viii  Contents
7 Politics on the consumer side: the role of end-users in
shaping electricity markets 111

8 Energy and industrial policy: how poorly implemented

energy policies impact industrial growth 119

PART IV
The future of energy 131

9 What should future electricity look like? Possible models for

future electricity systems 133

10 The quest for cleaner energy production: the rising role of

renewables 150

11 Implications of the on-going transitions and their

consequences for the future of energy in West Africa 164

12 Conclusions 175

Index 181
Figures

2.1 Socio-technical system for mobility 25

2.2 Multi-level perspective on transitions 26
3.1 Transition in energy use in Nigeria, 1800–2018 51
3.2 Coal production in Nigeria, 1916–1948 56
3.3 Electricity infrastructure growth in Nigeria, 1900–1960 58
3.4 Crude oil production in Nigeria, 1980–2000 61
3.5 Natural gas for electricity production in Nigeria, 1971–2000 62
3.6 Crude oil production in Nigeria, 2000–2018 63
3.7 Percentage of electricity generation in Nigeria
from natural gas 64
4.1 A panoramic view of the energy eras and the key features
of the Nigerian energy transitions, 1800–2018 68
5.1 The interconnections between the intra-country-induced
influences 91
6.1 The various stages of the policy cycle 100
6.2 The Nigerian energy flow 108
7.1 Conceptual map of political consumption dimensions 112
7.2 Four different energy consumer groups in Nigeria 113
7.3 Flood-related deaths and destruction due to river surge and
dam activities around the three major dams, 2012–2017 117
8.1 Nigeria’s primary energy consumption by sector (as of 2015). 121
8.2 Historical electricity consumption in Nigeria in billions
KWH, 1980–2015 125
9.1 Development trajectory for liberalizing the
electricity market 135
9.2 Key milestones in Nigeria’s electricity supply industry
liberalization process, 2001–2017 137
9.3 Possible future models for the organization of the
electricity industry 139
9.4 Proposed model for the organization of the
Nigerian electricity supply industry 141
9.5 Evolution of the future utility market 143
9.6 Business model choices of the future 145
x  Figures
10.1 Classification of various renewable energy sources 152
10.2 Map of hydro in Nigeria 160
10.3 Nigeria’s global horizontal irradiation 160
10.4 Map of wind resource potential in Nigeria 161
Tables

2.1 Stylized stages of technological development

and typical characteristics 28
2.2 Summary of various perspectives and their focus 37
3.1 Milestones in the development of rail infrastructure
in Nigeria 54
3.2 Enugu electrical balance sheet 1924 57
3.3 Complex movement of goods at Lagos harbour in 1925–1926 59
3.4 Number of commercial and private vehicle registrations in
Nigeria, 1937–1963 60
4.1 Goods tonnage and passenger journeys in Nigeria 74
6.1 Areas of policy/regulatory interventions in the extraction
and development of energy resource infrastructure 102
7.1 List of notable dams and reservoirs in Nigeria 116
7.2 Information summary for Nigeria’s three largest dams 116
8.1 Industrial estates in Nigeria and their principal activities
as of 1971 120
9.1 Business model choices of the future 147
10.1 Nigeria Sustainable Energy Target Agenda – 30 GW
by 2030 with 30 per cent renewables 158
10.2 Nigeria’s solar, wind, and hydropower programme targets 161
Acknowledgements

I never wanted to write a book. However, many people encouraged me to put

together an account of the Nigerian energy transitions based on my professional
and research experience in that field. I remember Benjamin Sovacool, in 2017,
telling me in a private conversation during a workshop hosted by the Centre on
Innovation in Energy Demand (CIED) at the University of Sussex that “you all
in the developing world have to tell your story from your own perspective. That
way, you will provide us more meaningful insights in understanding the key
drivers of energy transition within your geography”. Indeed, this was the final
nudge I needed to advance this book.
I was recently asked by a friend how long it took me to put together this
book. Indeed, the detailed research and writings that produced this book took a
little over six years. How time flies. It is quite easy for anyone writing about
Nigeria’s energy or electricity sector to swiftly migrate into the lamentable
issues that have prevented Nigeria from addressing the energy access and elec-
tricity infrastructure challenge. In putting together this book, cautious effort was
put into ensuring it does not end up as a collection of lamentations. This book,
rather than focus on specific political, regulatory, or socio-technical hiccups,
tries to provide the reader with some meaningful insights on the salient issues
that have impacted (and keep impacting) on Nigeria’s energy transition from
historical, policy/politics, governance, and end-use perspectives and how they
shape the future of energy in Nigeria.
In undertaking this book project, I would like to thank many people that
encouraged me. My great friends at the Global Sustainability Institute, Anglia
Ruskin University. In particular, I thank my doctoral supervisors, Dr Chris
Foulds and Prof. Aled Jones for encouraging me to advance my doctoral
research further to explore other areas which were not explored in my doctoral
research but which now appear in this book. Many thanks to several indi-
viduals within the Nigeria local branch of the Energy Institute for their kind
support. I also thank those that provided comments, reviews, and endorse-
ments for this book particularly Professors Benjamin Sovacool, Aled Jones,
and Liz Varga. I also thank Christine K, who was country director for the
Nigerian office of the Heinrich Boll Foundation (2010–2019), for her support
and review.
 Acknowledgements  xiii
This book would not have been possible without the help of all those people
who gave their time and contributed to the data collection. I would like to thank
the staff of the Nigerian Railway Corporation who shared their experiences and
provided some archival records that were used in the analysis of the Nigerian
energy transitions. Special thanks to the research participants (interviewees) for
their time and attention in making this study possible. I cannot thank enough the
very senior and overly busy Nigerian policy makers and politicians who were
interviewed in the course of this study for their time and attention in making this
study possible. I also thank the personal assistants of the policy makers and
politicians interviewed for their kind support and assistance in setting up
­
appointments with their bosses for the interviews. I also want to use this oppor-
tunity to thank the many anonymous reviewers of the journals where some of
the findings of this book have been published for their sound review comments
which helped in shaping this book.
In a special way, I wish to thank Elsevier for granting permission to repro-
duce several sections of my previously published works that appear in some of
their journals and reference handbooks. The journals/reference modules where
the articles appeared include: Energy Policy (volume 102); Renewable and Sus-
tainable Energy Reviews (volume 79); Journal of Cleaner Production (volume
210); and Reference Module in Earth Systems and Environmental Sciences.
I also thank Springer for granting permission to reproduce a section of a book
chapter published in one of their books. I thank Pricewaterhouse Coopers (PwC)
and the International Energy Agency (IEA) for granting permission to reproduce
figures and sections of some published reports. I also acknowledge the MDPI
and the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) for permission
to reproduce some previously published works
I wish to thank all my colleagues at the Pan-Atlantic University, Lagos
Nigeria, for their kind support. In particular, I wish to thank Professor Juan
Manuel Elegido for his constant support and encouragement, Professor Albert
Alos who would ask me when my next publication will be out. Also, my sincere
appreciation goes to many people who have been very encouraging during the
arduous period of putting this book together, particularly Professor Chimezie
Anyakora, Dr Robinson Ehiorobo, Dr Charles Okwose, Dr Mobolaji Shemfe,
Kingsley Ukaoha, Aifuwa Edosomwan, and many more people that have pro-
vided a lot of encouragement. Above all, I thank the almighty God for making
all of this possible.
1 Introduction

Energy transition entails a shift, or movement, away from the use of fossil fuels
in our energy supply systems.1 Across the world, fossil fuels, such as coal, crude
oil, and natural gas, account for a large percentage of our energy supplies. Why
then are we interested in energy transition? Beyond the fact that most fossil fuel
resources are reserve based, which means they are limited, the major driver of
energy transitions is the threat posed by burning the available large quantities
of fossil fuels and their corresponding impact on the environment.2 How do
we generate this transition? The clean energy transition is somewhat unique
because it has to be driven by policy. Markets cannot provide the platform to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions, since markets tend towards the least-cost
option, which at the moment is fossil fuel. As such, it is important to understand
the role of policy, policy levers, and policy decisions in effecting energy trans-
itions within the political economy.3
Energy transitions occur worldwide and are influenced by fundamental struc-
tural changes in the energy sector.4 Security of energy supply remains the most
important motivation for global energy transitions such as increasing supply to
meet rising demand, or reducing dependency on imports. Davidsson, in his study
of global energy transitions, argues that government policy making is the major
driver of change in connection with energy transitions.5 Davidsson further argues
that Germany and the United States follow a decentralized approach in policy
making, with a significant impact by state-level policy decision makers. He argues
however, that the reverse is the case with emerging economies such as Brazil,
China, and Saudi Arabia with centralized approaches to decision making where
government play a very vital role in defining energy investment priorities.5
In developing economies, energy supply shortages, poor or non-existent infra-
structure, and subsidized end-user prices are some key direct challenges which
tend to slow down the implementation of structural changes in energy systems. In
industrialized countries, the main challenges are rapid speed of change and imbal-
ance in the development path of energy systems.6 Davidsson argues:

The exchange of experiences and the sharing of knowledge gained from solving
implementation challenges can make an important contribution towards tack-
ling the challenge of energy transitions worldwide. The countries analysed
2  Introduction
can learn from important parallels and differences in terms of policy
making, technology deployment and business model evolution.5
(p. 2)

Understanding how policy decisions are taken, how current policies are interpreted,
and how energy infrastructure is shaped is dependent on the understanding of
the actors and stakeholders, their socio-psychological biases, the internal workings
of the institutions within which they act, and their organization’s wider interests.
On this basis, the broader influences and consequences of the policy decision
process and energy governance need to be considered.
Investigating the past, and understanding the factors that influenced the pat-
terns of energy use can be very useful to policy makers and other energy
stakeholders in effectively governing the affairs of the energy sector, and
ensuring that the right energy infrastructure is provided that satisfactorily
addresses the energy needs of people in society. This book presents and ques-
tions the Nigerian energy governance structure within the electricity sub-­
sector by investigating the linkages between policy making and electricity
infrastructure provision.

What does this book aim to address?

The apparent complexity and the lack of understanding of the workings of the
Nigerian electricity sector pose a challenge to investing parties. Many investors
know there are lots of prospects and opportunities in Nigeria’s electricity sector.
However, they find it very difficult to understand the complex governance
dynamics and the political terrain within which decisions are taken. As such, it
is arduous for investing parties to ascertain when to invest, what to invest in, and
to what extent to invest. Different stakeholders are also concerned about the
need to understand what drives change in energy systems from the end-use,
resources, infrastructure, and governance perspectives in order to better plan,
provide, and manage energy for current and future needs.
There is presently not enough material on Nigeria’s energy transitions and the
dynamics of energy infrastructure change in Nigeria that contributes to the
global debate on the motives and drivers of energy transitions. This is the main
motivation for putting this book together.
The overall aim of this book is to extend knowledge and recent writing on
energy transitions with a focus on understanding the motives and influences under-
lying changes in energy infrastructure demand and supply within the Nigerian
context. Indeed, some guiding questions that address the central aim include:

• How does innovation change the nature of demand for energy over time?
• What are the salient factors that have influenced the evolution of energy
demand and supply?
• What roles do political actors play, within institutional frameworks, with
regard to energy and electricity governance?
 Introduction   3
The Nigerian energy sector is very complex. It involves interaction among mul-
tiple (state and non-state) stakeholders. Decision making is mostly influenced by
domestic politics and other geopolitical considerations, which sometimes create
a lack of clarity that makes companies want to bend the rules in order to stay
competitive.7,8 Related to this is the issue of bias in the selection process for
choosing contractors for a specific project, which is oftentimes introduced
before the bidding process. Indeed, this is more evident as a form of corruption
in the oil and gas sub-sector than in the electricity sub-sector.9

Why the electricity sector?

The energy sector is very broad. Conducting interconnection studies between
policy making and energy infrastructure supply requires that the specifics of
each sub-sector is understood. There are two dominant sub-sectors of the energy
industry in Nigeria:

1 Electricity – This includes generation, supply, distribution, and utilization.

2 Oil and gas – Tludes exploration and production activities, upstream, mid-
stream, and downstream operations, etc.his inc

Indeed, there are other sub-sectors which are not as dominant as the aforemen-
tioned ones (such as coal and nuclear). Focusing on one sub-sector provides a
platform for an in-depth study on the core issues associated with that sub-sector.
As such, the choice of the electricity sector also considers the various electricity
sources and fuels (coal, hydropower, natural gas, etc.), electricity legislation and
governance issues, amid other possible influences. The electricity sector has
been chosen for the following reasons:

1 There are salient issues in the electricity sector which impact on both the
rich and the poor (such as energy access and poverty).
2 There are not as many studies on the Nigerian electricity sub-sector in com-
parison with the oil and gas sub-sector. One of the reasons for this is the
funding from oil and gas firms in Nigeria for research in the oil and gas sub-
sector (through postgraduate scholarships and research collaboration for
academics) is greater than for electricity.
3 The oil and gas sub-sector is likely more influenced by foreign investments
rather than domestic needs and policy dynamics.

Materials and methods

To address the aims of the research that produced this book, the mixed method
was employed. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from already
published literature and official statistical records in order to ascertain the historical
reasons and factors that underpinned energy demand, consumption patterns, and
energy infrastructure provisions. Qualitative data were collected through in-depth
4   Introduction
interviews with current and past policy makers (which include current and past
federal and state law makers, ministers, and special advisers to the government).
The aim was to collect historical data (based on the participants’ life experiences)
on the impact and influence of policy making – as a practice – on decisions
regarding energy supply infrastructure provisions.
The mixed method is a research design that uses a combination of qualitative
and quantitative research approaches in many aspects and phases of the research
process.10 The mixed method uses a philosophical assumption that guides the
direction of the collection and analysis of data. As a method, it focuses on collecting,
analysing, and mixing both quantitative and qualitative data in a single study or
in series of studies.11 In an attempt to address the central aim of this book, quant-
itative and qualitative data were collected from two broad sources:

1 Data from primary and secondary sources in documentary archives and

other published sources that link to the Nigerian historical energy infra-
structure provisions.
2 Data collected via in-depth semi-structured interviews with open-ended
questions. The research participants came from diverse backgrounds. Parti-
cipants were recruited mainly from people who have been involved (directly
or indirectly) in policy making and electricity infrastructure provisions.

Some key contributions of this book

Sandberg argues that with respect to research,

It is important to provide innovative questions which will open up new

research problems, might resolve long standing controversies, could provide
an integration of different approaches, and might even turn conventional
wisdom and assumptions upside down by challenging old beliefs.12
(pp. 1–2)

Corley also argues that originality and utility constitute two dimensions that cur-
rently dominate consideration of theoretical contributions.13 Corley further
argues that originality can be categorized as either (1) advancing understanding
incrementally or (2) advancing understanding in a way that provides some form
of revelation, whereas the utility dimension parses into (1) practically useful and
(2) scientifically useful. In the context of this literature, I now argue that there
are three broad areas with which this book contributes to existing bodies of
knowledge: empirical, methodological, and theoretical contributions.

Empirical contributions
This book presents how activities of policy makers and actors, within institutional
frameworks, impact on decisions on energy supply infrastructure. The data gath-
ered, particularly from the archives of the Nigerian Railway Corporation (NRC),
 Introduction  5
is such that no one has collected and used it in the analysis of the Nigerian
energy transitions, or even any other associated field. The archival data collected
from the NRC, and the subsequent analysis using that data in studying the Nige-
rian energy transition forms a key part of the empirical contribution of this book.
This novel manner of connecting historical events and happenings in analysing
and producing what could be considered as “one of the first set of studies on the
Nigerian energy transition” forms a key part of the empirical contributions of
this book. It should be additionally noted that no other study has conducted the
kind of interviews that I did with Nigerian policy makers, and this thereby
represents another empirical contribution.

Methodological contributions
The key methodological contribution of this book is to advance the under-
standing of dealing with high-level institutional players in developing countries.
This book highlights some of the methodological considerations in dealing with
high-level policy makers. In particular, specific regard was given to: how to gain
access; how to ask and present questions; and how to carry out recordings of
conversations with them.
Linked to this, this book contributes to a better understanding of how to
engage high-level institutional actors and policy makers on cultural and very
sensitive issues, such as corruption, in developing countries. Understanding the
cultural background and context plays a vital role in the research design in order
to choose the best research approach for any study. Going through the personal
assistants of the target policy maker/institutional actor(s), and the use of a Short
Message Service (SMS), are examples of interventions used in this study which
were fruits of understanding the Nigerian cultural context. Essentially, this book
would be of real help to anyone researching the activities of policy makers over
time in the developing world, especially in the Nigerian context.

Theoretical contributions
This book contributes to theoretical knowledge on energy transitions, particularly
from a developing country perspective. This book is likely to serve as a reference
in studying future energy transitions of other developing African countries.
This book contributes to knowledge through demonstrating the value of
theoretical pragmatism. It contributes to theoretical knowledge by emphasizing
the value of interdisciplinarity of theory. This is important as the novel mix
of theories enriches the study and provides a platform for understanding the
viewpoint and linkages of different theoretical perspectives in relation to the
central research question being investigated. Indeed, most energy transitions
studies have focused on the use of the multi-level perspective (MLP) theory with
less consideration on other possible approaches. Hence, my adoption of theoret-
ical pragmatism, through combining different theories in addressing the same
issue, serves as a major contribution to theory.
6   Introduction
The adoption of a pragmatic approach to the use of theory in this book has
allowed me to better conceptualize the challenges associated with decision
making on energy infrastructure within institutional, socio-political, and contex-
tual frameworks. Therefore, this book, through the use of building blocks for
theory development, as argued by Whetten,14 has contributed to theoretical
knowledge through the use of three essential elements – the what, how, and why
of the Nigerian energy transition – which then leads to investigating the who and
when that constitutes influences on the Nigerian energy transitions.14

Limits of this study/book

This section highlights some of the limitations – or perhaps more appropriate,
limits – of this book and the data upon which it is based.
A limit of this study is that it was obviously impossible to interview everyone
that had played a significant role in Nigeria’s energy transition. Most simply,
many had inevitably passed away. Some of the key players 50 years ago have
died. As such, it was difficult obtaining data from the interviewees, which dates
back to more than 50 years ago. The documentary data gathered from archives
was what helped in gaining some insights on the historical policy-making prac-
tices. But beyond that, some target participants were either out of the country, or
had other state assignments that gave them no availability.
In the course of the interviews, I discovered that some of the policy makers
were more knowledgeable in policy practices that connect with water and
environmental issues rather than energy in itself. However, they were able to
provide insights on energy policy practices during the time they served as active
policy makers since they had better knowledge of institutional workings and the
internal dynamics of decision making within institutions, which is part of the
core focus of this book.
The political climate in Nigeria at the time of the interviews also impacted on
the research. The interviews were conducted during the electioneering period in
Nigeria in 2015. Election periods were characterized by uncertainties. Sensitive
matters, such as corruption, can be quite difficult to address during an interview
session (considering the political climate at the time). Some interviewees (who
did not partake in the research) perceived the research interview as a tool
planted by their political opponents to obtain their views on certain sensitive
issues. Indeed, this resulted only having fewer people agreeing to partake in the
research than initially envisaged. However, those interviewed were truly repre-
sentative of the target institutions for the study.

Structure of this book

This book is structured in four parts describing different relevant aspects of elec-
tricity and energy transitions in Nigeria. Part I deals with relevant theories
underpinning energy systems change. Part II delves into the historical dimen-
sions of Nigeria’s energy transitions. Part III explores the political dynamics of
 Introduction   7
energy systems change from policy, governance, industrial policy, and consumer
perspectives. Part IV focuses on the future of energy in Nigeria, possible organ-
izational and business models for the energy sector, and the role of renewables
going into the future. The structure of this book is as follows:
Chapter 1 (Introduction) introduces and clarifies the entire direction of the
book and explains how the book is structured.

PART I: Energy demand and supply theories

Chapter 2 (Theories underpinning electricity demand and infrastructure supply)
presents the influences on electricity demand and how they impact on electricity
supply infrastructure from five main theoretical perspectives of techno-­economics,
social psychology, socio-technical transitions, social practices, and institutional
theory. These theoretical lenses were used to provide some reflections on the
political dynamics of electricity demand and infrastructure supply.

PART II: Historical dimensions of the Nigerian energy transitions

Chapter 3 (What really happened? The evolution of energy infrastructure provi-
sion (1800–2018)) explores the various events that resulted in the evolution and
changes in energy and electricity infrastructure supply in Nigeria within a 218-
year period covering 1800–2018. It explores the various eras of energy use with
an emphasis on understanding how innovation shaped the changing nature of
demand for energy and how the Nigerian government and people responded to
this changing demand.
Chapter 4 (What triggered change? Influences and drivers of energy systems
change), unlike the previous chapter that focused on events, explores the key
drivers and influences that shaped the changes in Nigeria’s energy and electricity
system within each era of energy use covering a period of 1800–2018. It ­highlights
the role of some salient drivers that shaped energy and electricity infrastructure pro-
vision and supply such as: policy and institutional interventions; technological
interventions and energy technology pathways; societal practices and public values
for energy; economic consideration; and energy resource options.

PART III: Political dynamics of energy systems change

Chapter 5 (Governing energy: exploring the political influences of energy
systems change in the electricity sector) empirically explores various influences
that underpin the policy decision processes on energy and how they shape trans-
ition in energy infrastructure provision and use within the Nigerian context. It
highlights some salient intra-country influences on energy and how they impact
on energy governance within the electricity sector. It also draws special attention
to some inter-country influences and how they shape Nigeria’s energy infra-
structure choices. It presents and compares how these influences affect electri-
city supply in other neighbouring West African countries.
8   Introduction
Chapter 6 (Governance and transitions: the role of political actors and institutions
in energy systems change) highlights the linkages between political institutions
and policy processes and their impact on energy infrastructure provision, use,
and governance. It highlights the institutional instruments and policy processes
used by policy makers to intervene in matters of energy and electricity infra-
structure provision and some unintended consequences that are the upshot of the
policy process.
Chapter 7 (Politics on the consumer side: the role of end-users in shaping
electricity markets) presents some salient attributes of the Nigerian electricity
consumer. It starts off by categorizing four consumer groups based on their will-
ingness to pay and ability to pay for electricity bills. The origins and evolution
of unwillingness-to-pay for electricity by certain consumer groups and their
impact on the workings and development of the Nigerian electricity market are
also highlighted.
Chapter 8 (Energy and industrial policy: how poorly implemented energy
policies impact industrial growth) presents the interplay between energy and
industrial policy and its impact on sustainable industrial growth. It also presents,
from a historical standpoint, some electricity policies that supported industriali-
zation in Nigeria and how things started to go wrong due to the poor implemen-
tation of such policies. It highlights the key challenges and eras of industrial
energy transitions in the manufacturing sector and how industrial plants are
responding to these challenges through industrial energy efficiency and cleaner
production measures.

PART IV: The future of energy

Chapter 9 (What should future electricity look like? Possible models for future
electricity systems) presents the various possible ways in which future energy
systems and the electricity market will be organized for both centralized and
decentralized low carbon energy systems. It highlights some key features of
future electricity markets and the future business and organizational models that
are likely to evolve in addressing future electricity needs.
Chapter 10 (The quest for cleaner energy production: the rising role of
renewables) presents some salient issues that underpin the drive towards cleaner
renewable energy sources. It presents the policy and regulatory issues support-
ing the greater adoption and supply of renewable energy sources. It also
explores how end-users shape the supply and adoption of renewables in address-
ing electricity needs for residential and small business applications.
Chapter 11 (Implications of the on-going transitions and their consequences for
the future of energy in West Africa) presents some of the implications of the on-
going energy transitions in Nigeria and what it means for the future of energy and
electricity. Of particular importance are issues regarding how the various historical
influences and drivers of energy systems change have led to path dependency and
systems lock-in in energy and electricity systems and what they mean for the future
of energy. It also presents cross-comparison with other West African countries.
 Introduction   9
Chapter 12 (Conclusions) presents the key conclusions of the book based on
the build-up from the preceding chapters

References
1 P. A. O’Connor, “Energy transitions”, Frederick Pardee Centre for Study of the Long
Range Future, Boston University, Boston, USA, 2010.
2 A. Cherp, J. Jewell, and A. Goldthau, “Governing global energy: systems, transitions,
complexity”, Glob. Policy, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 75–88, 2011.
3 L. Baker, “Post-apartheid electricity policy and the emergence of South Africa’s
renewable energy sector”, WIDER Working Paper 2016, no. 15, March 2016.
4 World Economic Forum, “Energy transitions: past and future”, World Economic
Forum, Geneva, Switzerland, 2013.
5 S. Davidsson, “Global energy transitions”, Weltenergierat Deutschland, Berlin, 2014.
6 P. Matschoss, “The German energy transition: status, challenges and the Finnish per-
spective”, FIIA Briefing Paper, no. 128, The Finnish Institute of International Affairs,
Helsinki, Finland, May 2013.
7 D. Kent and L. Goatcher, “Nigeria’s Petroleum Industry Governance and Institutional
Framework Bill 2015”, Energy and Natural Resources – Nigeria, 2016. [Online].
Available: www.mondaq.com/Nigeria/x/462566/Oil+Gas+Electricity/Nigerias+Petrol
eum+Industry+Governance+And+Institutional+Framework+Bill+2015. [Accessed:
01-Apr.2017].
8 N. Edomah, C. Foulds, and A. Jones, “The role of policy makers and institutions in
the energy sector: the case of energy infrastructure governance in Nigeria”, Sustain-
ability, vol. 8, no. 8, p. 829, August 2016.
9 A. Gillies, “Reforming corruption out of Nigerian oil?”, Centre of International
Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, 2009.
10 M. Sandelowski, “Combining qualitative and quantitative sampling, data collection, and
analysis techniques in mixed-method studies”, Research in Nursing & Health, vol. 23,
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11 C. Kothari, Research Methodology: Methods and Techniques, New Age International
Publishers, 2004.
12 J. Sandberg and M. Alvesson, “Ways of constructing research questions: gap-spotting
or problematization?”, Organization, vol. 18, no. 1, pp. 23–44, 2011.
13 K. G. Corley and D. A. Gioia, “Building theory about theory: what constitutes a theor-
etical contribution?”, Academy of Management Review, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 12–32, 2011.
14 D. A. Whetten, “What constitutes theoretical contribution ?”, Academy of Management
Journal, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 490–495, 2013.
Part I

Energy demand and supply

theories
2 Theories underpinning
electricity demand and
infrastructure supply

Introduction
In recent times, more attention has been given to building new energy supply
infrastructure, either to cater for growing energy demand or to continue to
supply existing demand, by replacing the existing ageing energy supply infra-
structure that is reaching the end of its life time.
Adequate supply of energy infrastructural services is essential for economic
development.1 Moreover, such services have been regarded as essential in acade­
mic, political, and professional realms as has been observed over the last few
decades through considerable efforts of empirical and theoretical evaluation of
contributions of energy infrastructure to economic growth and development.2,3
Connected to this, attention has also been given to the connection between infra-
structure and poverty.4 In as much as current literatures on these topics appear
completely distinct, a consensus has undoubtedly been reached that under the
right conditions, energy infrastructure development can play a major role in eco-
nomic development through promoting growth.
There have been a series of changes in the energy industry in the past
decades, with still more changes expected in the coming years. These changes
impact on the energy infrastructures we use.5 Input to production is regarded as
one of the most direct roles of energy today. This means a world without energy
and electricity almost amounts to non-mechanized production. Inasmuch as
erratic electricity ­supplies disrupt production, voltage fluctuations negatively
affect the durability of production equipment, as experienced in most developing
economies in Africa.6 The efficiency and durability of physical capital is
improved by better electricity-related infrastructure.3 Thus, there is a close link
between technological progress, capital accumulation, as well as economic
growth and development.7
A considerable part of today’s prosperity rests on stable and secure access
to energy.8 In Africa, only one in four people has access to electricity.9 In
Latin America, infrastructure is a major determinant of GDP per capita
growth, while it is still argued that the continent lags behind in terms of
quality and quantity of infrastructure when compared with the international
norm.10
14   Energy demand and supply theories
The United Nations11 argues that infrastructure has major implications for a
variety of development outcomes at three different levels:

1 The household level, through social mobility, education and health;

2 The firm level, through industrial development and productivity; and
3 The global level, through climate change issues.

What is energy supply infrastructure?

There is currently no universally accepted definition as to what energy supply
infrastructure is. However, many authors have provided explanations for various
subsets of energy infrastructure, with examples including electricity infrastruc-
ture,12 petroleum infrastructure,13 natural gas infrastructure,14 renewable energy
infrastructure.15,16
Based upon these fragmented set of literatures, I hereby define energy infra-
structure as follows:

Energy supply infrastructure represents the (small- and large-scale) enablers

that help us to extract, produce, transport, and manage energy from producer
to consumer.

Going forward, the term “energy infrastructure” as used in the subsequent sections of
this chapter refers to all the various aspects of the electricity value chain (from electri-
city generation to utilization) as already highlighted in the preceding paragraphs.
Except where otherwise stated, the term “energy” in this chapter refers to electricity.
In line with this definition, also included are traditional utilities associated
with energy management and transport, such as: coal-fired trains,17 electricity
transmission lines,18 and electricity generation plants.19 It also includes large-
scale energy management technologies such as: smart grids,20,21 smart building
technologies,22 modern power plant control systems, and advanced electricity
distribution and metering systems.23,24
The electrical grid in some developed (and developing) countries is based on
outdated technologies that are subject to congestion problems.25 The embodied
technology in current grid systems in many countries limits the development of
renewable sources, including decentralized sources of renewable energy, such as
individual home-based solar energy systems.26 This is so because it is difficult to
distribute surplus energy generated by decentralized sources through the existing
electrical energy grid.27
With respect to energy infrastructure, there are several factors which pose
themselves as challenges we have to face, that will play a vital role in ensuring a
stable future energy supply.28 These challenges include the following:

1 Hydrocarbon resources will become more difficult to access, and increasingly

challenging to produce.
2 Technological requirements will be an increasingly complex and demanding
issue, particularly technologies required for greater energy efficiency and
energy conservation.
 Electricity demand and infrastructure supply   15
3 Cost of producing and delivering energy will escalate.
4 Demand on current and future infrastructure is growing.
5 Human resources may be inadequate to meet projected growth requirements.
6 There are greater and indeterminate environmental constraints.

Energy infrastructure provision is connected to other factors which directly influ-

ence the political culture, such as: climate, natural resources (as is common in
many countries with fossil fuel reserves), population, and the wider environment.29
Other factors include a nation’s historical experiences, language, art, literature,
memories, economics, geography, and social norms, which also shape the political
culture as well as the cultural ethos. The fundamental agreements and trust –
without which politics cannot advance as a civilizing process – are provided by the
cultural framework that offers sound rules for the political game.30
Investment decisions are becoming more difficult due to the rising levels of
uncertainty in forms of changing geopolitical alliances in forming energy deals,
geopolitical trends that impact on energy production, fluctuations in energy
prices and trade dynamics, issues of poor governance and political instability,
threats to infrastructural facilities, and other environmental concerns.31
­Considering possible threats to successful investment in new energy infrastruc-
ture, the International Energy Agency (IEA) argues that aside from the rising
capital investment cost, other major factors include geopolitical concerns which
highlights the issue of energy security as the stubborn part of the decision-making
process.32 Climate change, which constitutes a change in regional and global
climate patterns, is also a factor that has to be considered in the choice of energy
supply infrastructure.33

Considering theoretical perspectives

As a follow-up to the arguments of the preceding sub-section, I hereby argue that
energy supply, in the strict sense of the word, is not created but is caused. The
cause can come in various ways, such as government high-level decisions on
new energy infrastructure when there is not high demand for it. The fact that the
infrastructure is available now leads to a shift to the use of that infrastructure. In
this case, the demand is caused by the initial provision of that infrastructure.
Another cause can be the consumerist nature of people in society. Attitudinal
biases, culture, and beliefs, which influence people’s social practices (which can
be very energy intensive) also contribute to increased energy demand, which
then impacts on energy supply infrastructure. Practices influence energy demand
levels and patterns, which in turn influence energy supply provision.
Therefore, I argue that changes to energy infrastructure can come about
through one or a combination of the following:

1 High-level decision makers (in particular, policy makers) imposing policies,

structures, and instruments that support and aid new energy infrastructure
provision.
16   Energy demand and supply theories
2 Society consuming energy – through various attitudinal and social practices –
which impacts on increased energy consumption levels and imposes pressure
on existing energy infrastructure, thus leading to an increased need for new
energy infrastructure. An example of influences on energy infrastructure
choices is the perceived safety issues around nuclear power that contribute
to people voting against its use for electricity generation, as in the case of
Germany.34 Attitudinal influences impact both the demand side (total volume
of infrastructure provided) and the supply side (the actual infrastructure
choices).

There is a general consensus that electricity infrastructure supply is influenced by

multiple factors.35 It is generally believed that the economics of technological
options for electricity generation have been dynamic, thus impacting on the kind
of electrical energy supply infrastructure used since some technological options
are now becoming cheaper.36 There is also a consensus that the activities and prac-
tices of people in society over time have been increasingly energy intensive, and
that these practices shape social behaviour and impact increased energy consump-
tion, which leads to an increased demand for electricity infrastructure supply.37
The increased quest for psychological benefits which shapes attitudes and habits
towards energy consumption is generally believed to have some impact on
increased electricity consumption. The quest by some interest groups to ensure a
shift in electricity access from niche (privileged few) to mainstream (a large
majority) is generally perceived to have some influence on the electricity supply
infrastructure landscape that can yield multiple social benefits.38 It is also believed
that certain institutions involved in energy (oil and gas) and electricity infrastructure
decisions and provisions play a vital role in the energy landscape.39,40
In this chapter, I have decided to investigate those influences that start from
understanding the role of individual agents, to the influences posed within higher
social contexts and structures. In doing this, I try to explore the following:

1 How do individual agents, through analysis of costs and benefits, influence

energy supply infrastructure provisions? (Techno-economics.)
2 How do people’s habits and attitudes impact on energy supply infrastructure
provisions? (Social psychology.)
3 How have practices, over time, impacted on energy supply infrastructure
provisions? (Social practices.)
4 How have institutional contexts influenced changes in energy supply infra-
structure? (Institutional dimensions.)
5 How have socio-technical systemic contexts impacted on changes in energy
supply infrastructure? (Socio-technical transitions.)

Indeed, these questions helped in shaping the choice of the approaches covered in
this chapter. Following the general assumptions of different influences, this
chapter intends to explore these questions from their associated theoretical lenses
to see how they impact (directly or indirectly) on electricity infrastructure supply.
 Electricity demand and infrastructure supply   17
There are other perspectives/theoretical lenses that influence energy infrastructure
supply, such as: network theory, which studies relationships between discreet vari-
ables and actors;41 dynamic systems theories, which study the development of
complex and non-linear set-ups/arrangements;42 and complexity theory, which
studies interactions and feedback loops that impact on systems change.43 I have
not considered these perspectives because they do not really fit well within the
context and framework of this research in analysing the various influences on
energy supply infrastructure. Indeed, I have chosen these five perspectives (among
several options) because they are more appropriate in addressing this research case
as the reader will later notice and as demonstrated in this chapter.
Based on all this context, the purpose of this chapter is to critically review
different understandings of the various factors, elements, processes, and systems
involved in the decision-making process relating to the provision of electricity
supply infrastructure. Specifically, this review analyses the theoretical reasoning
of five perspectives, each of which puts forward its own rationale for explaining
how new electricity supply infrastructure has come to be:44

1 Techno-economics
2 Social psychology
3 Socio-technical transitions
4 Social practices
5 Institutional dimensions

The exploration of the various perspectives starts with those that are linked more
to individual cognition (techno-economics and social psychology), before
moving to discuss those perspectives that are based more on social contexts
(socio-technical transitions). It also considers two perspectives that situated in
the middle ground between these individualistic and social structural perspec-
tives. These two middle-ground perspectives are focused on social practices and
institutional dimensions.
This chapter now explores how the five different schools of thought (perspec-
tives) explain changes in energy infrastructure. It also looks at the interplay of
politics within and between the various perspectives. It explores the indirect role
of politics in the various perspectives in influencing increased level of electricity
demand, which leads to electricity infrastructure deficit, which causes the need
for more electricity infrastructure supply decisions and the choices of electricity
infrastructure provided. This is important as these five perspectives helps to
demonstrate electricity infrastructure choices from individualistic perspectives
to those perspectives that are based more on social context.

Techno-economic theory, energy demand, and infrastructure

supply
This perspective argues that most energy (oil, gas, and electricity) infrastructure
investment decisions are based on economic processes. It argues that energy
18   Energy demand and supply theories
investment decisions are more a product of a continuous evaluation of costs and
benefits and assumes objective decision making based on cost–benefit analysis
and rational choice.

Overview
The origin of the study and concept of techno-economic paradigm started with
Carlota Perez and C. Freeman.45 Perez argues that technology, together with its
supporting institutions, constitutes a techno-economic paradigm. This paradigm
has been identified as an important element that constitutes the new technological
style, which drives towards more intensive use, engineering and investment
decisions. Perez further argues that this new technological style induces some
sort of best practices/principles which serve as a sort of paradigm for designing
the social tools required to grasp the new techno-economic potential, as well as
steering institutional change.46
Considering the aforementioned, it can be argued that the techno-economic
paradigm constitutes patterns of choice regarding research into and the development,
establishment, and furtherance of technologies.47 Therefore, a techno-­economic
paradigm which supports green technologies would induce certain biases in the
technological preferences of firms towards environmentally friendly choices. It
would also influence the choices and preferences of actors in the policy environ-
ment, as well as the role of consumers in setting the research and development
agenda of firms. Freeman argues that society made choices on innovation with
environmental implications between the 1970s and 1980s.48 This resulted in the
development of bias favouring environmentally friendly technologies, identified
in different facets of policy choices, production, and consumption activities as
experienced in the beginning of the 1990s.

Politics, political markets, and energy investment decisions

The dynamics and interplay between energy investments decisions, politics, and
the political market have some systemic implications for new energy infrastruc-
ture provisions. Political markets49,50 are composed of political agents, such as
elected officials, as well as officials appointed to run regulatory agencies51 who
make decisions that structure exchange among participants in the real market as
well as the financial market.52 They determine things like taxes, regulations, as
well as granting and approving permits, as in the energy business some permit-
ting process may be necessary.
The techno-economic paradigm would argue that energy supply infrastruc-
ture decisions in the political sphere are influenced by how policy makers and
others engage with these market forces, which includes the financial appraisal of
each decision’s cost–benefits. Thus, policy makers are considered to be provid-
ing energy infrastructure on the basis of rational choice. Some of the influence
mechanisms adopted by techno-economists in influencing decisions in the political
market53 include: elections, lobbying, comments contributed during legislative
 Electricity demand and infrastructure supply   19
debates and regulatory rulemaking (such as stakeholder meetings), as well as
court cases.54
Inasmuch as techno-economists would like to influence decisions on new
energy infrastructure to their favour, the role of policy makers and the political
market is quite crucial for two concrete reasons:

1 There are systemic implications of the kind of activities in which we

engage in the energy business. These systemic implications include exter-
nalities55 such as: risk of public safety and pollution. These are termed
externalities because the bilateral transaction between the seller and the
buyer in the energy business oftentimes has some external implications for
third-party agents. The effects of these externalities serve as a justification
for political influence on the activities in that market.
  Another form of systemic implication is the network effects56 which come
as a result of the high interdependence in supply.57 An example can be the
implications of pipeline vandalism which cripple other sectors such as
transport or electricity generation due to the high dependence of these
sectors on energy supply infrastructure.
2 The geographically fixed nature of energy resources and the magnitude of
investment, specific to those geographical locations, constitute another
important factor that is specific to energy business and energy infrastructure
decisions.58 Once the investments are made and resources sunk into a specific
geography, an opportunity arises for takings by political agents. This is what in
economics is called rent seeking.59 What happens in this situation is that polit-
ical agents try to renegotiate the rules after huge investments have been made.

The aforementioned points to some of the foundational reasons as to why – over

time – politics, and the political processes and systems, have gained more
importance as key overriding factors in the decision making for new energy
infrastructure. Political markets are very critical in energy decisions.49,50 As
such, there is certainly some value in understanding how participating in rule-
making activities and debates over permitting activities and legislation affects
the energy market and energy infrastructure provision.

Implications of policy decisions using the techno-economic paradigm

Policy making is a very important process in advancing the affairs of every
nation, institution, or community. The orientation of each policy maker influ-
ences and impacts on the practice of policy making, as well as the actions and
underlying mechanisms of the policy-making system and process. The indi-
vidual biases of each policy maker are also important. Some policy makers act
as rational actors. For them, they only support policies, bills, and programmes
whose benefits outweigh the cost. If the benefits do not outweigh the cost, they
do not support it. They think and act more like economists. For them, it is essen-
tially a question of cost–benefit analysis and rational choice.
20  Energy demand and supply theories
However, as I have implied throughout this wider section on the techno-­
economic paradigm, the situation is not a simple one. For example, do govern-
ments always go for the cheapest option? What happens if the public disagrees?
Aside from the public, what do other policy makers think? Are all of their decisions
based on economic indices only? If this perspective even considers society in
any way (which is debatable), then it would assume that society is organized by
economic processes. Does this perspective sufficiently question what underlies
or underpins energy demand, and thus why we even need a certain level of
supply? These questions seem not to be answered sufficiently when viewed from
the techno-economic perspective.
To summarize, in this perspective, rational choices that are said to underpin
economic processes were explored in connection with energy infrastructure
supply. This perspective gives an understanding of the increased role of techno-
economic processes in decision making on energy supply infrastructure. The
role of politics and the political decision-making process is becoming very
evident in economic decisions, and government’s role in energy infrastructure
decisions is on the rise. As such, it is important to examine these linkages and
their impact on energy infrastructure supply.

Socio-psychological theory, energy demand, and

infrastructure supply
In exploring this perspective, a demand-side approach to energy infrastructure
supply provision is adopted. The primary reason for approaching the social
psychology of energy infrastructure from a demand-side is because social psych-
ology literature is dominated by studies on energy demand rather than energy
supply. Thus, this perspective looks at how social psychology affects demand
for energy, and the corresponding impact that they have on energy supply provi-
sion. However, I will draw lessons from the demand-side approach to explore
energy supply issues later.

Overview
This perspective argues that the provision of new energy infrastructure is a result
of what people think (beliefs, attitudes, and values) and their psychological
makeup. It argues that people have developed habits over time which tend
towards a greater consumerist culture, thus, increasing demand for energy. Since
energy is embedded in our culture, this perspective further argues that most of
our habits, over time, have become more energy intensive and stresses the need
for more energy efficiency and energy conservation. This would, for example,
result in the need for less energy supply infrastructure through a reduced
demand for overall energy supply.
Lowering energy consumption can be achieved through energy conservation
or energy efficiency.60 Energy conservation entails modifying a task to achieve it
with less energy.61 Energy conservation, which can take the form of walking or
 Electricity demand and infrastructure supply   21
cycling to a destination rather than driving there, or not using air conditioning in
one’s residence, helps in reducing the need for new energy supply infrastructure.
Energy efficiency entails accomplishing the same task with less energy in a much
more innovative way, which could take the form of using different lighting
­technologies (such as Light Emitting Diodes – LEDs), or driving a simple car that
consumes less energy. Energy efficiency62 has financial gains for the consumers,
societal gains for the environment, and reduced needs for building new power
plants for utilities. This is important as the impact of energy efficiency and energy
conservation is a reduced need for energy supply infrastructure.
Energy conservation63,64 is in everyone’s best interest. It is good for the
economy, national security,65 the climate, and a host of other goods. Energy con-
servation is a no-brainer for policy makers; however, it is not an easy task for
most energy consumers.66 Every little bit of action does count towards energy
conservation.67 The following sub-section delves into the interaction between
social psychology, energy behaviour, and energy infrastructure provision.

Socio-psychological and behavioural aspects

underpinning energy supply
For most consumers, energy is invisible and intangible just like air. It is not used
directly and it permeates every aspect of our lives. Its use is habitual and uncon-
scious.68 It is rarely thought about, but mostly considered when energy bills
arrive.69 Unlike other bills, it seems to most consumers that there is no direct
link between energy use and cost.70 It is unintelligible and complex. The meters
and metrics for measurement are unfamiliar to energy consumers. A myriad of
devices use energy, such as: mobile phones, home heaters, etc. It is a relatively
insignificant subject for most consumers, and they view the monetary value
(in relation to the incentives derived) as too small when compared with other
bills. The challenge still remains that energy is deeply embedded in our culture
through the various cultural contexts of families, work life, and communities. It
enables things that confer psychic benefits, such as attention and status. It is
impacted by political orientation, values, and norms, etc. In fact, it is quite
complex from a consumer point of view and it is not fun or interesting to think
actively about energy conservation.71 This has greatly contributed to an
increased demand for energy which leads to an increased need for energy supply
provision as many energy consumers are not ready to change their consumption
patterns and behaviour.
The traditional approach towards achieving energy conservation has been
technology, through various technological innovations.72,73 Another approach is
through standard economic theory, which assumes that all people are rational,
that they make decisions by weighing the costs and benefits of options, and that they
act in their self-interest, which underpins the techno-economic paradigm.64 In order
to achieve energy efficiency, it is argued that all that needs to be done is to give
information (such as “saving energy saves money”), or create motivation (mainly
through financial incentives), or improve technology designed by engineers. All
22  Energy demand and supply theories
of these have resulted to some good success, but there is still a large gap
between what is cost effective and what is actually being done. This underpins
the techno-economic paradigm; however, the social psychology perspective
aims to do more through a better conceptualization of the influences that sur-
round the individual. Thus, it is argued that human behaviour and beliefs have
certain impacts on energy efficiency, which pose certain barriers to its adoption,
and as such, result in an increased need for energy supply infrastructure (since a
large majority of energy consumers still have not managed to embrace energy
efficiency/conservation measures). For example, four major psychological dia-
gnoses that affect energy efficiency technologies, which in turn result in an
increased need for energy supply infrastructure are described below:74

1 Many energy choices are automatic and habitual – more like a result of
inertia.75,76 Many of our choices have become almost automatic, more like
habits. We either turn on the lights or not, or buy an energy efficient appli-
ance or not. These are things we do without thinking perhaps because we
have seen other people do them in the same way. Cost–benefit analysis
cannot change an automatic behaviour because one will never stop to do the
calculations.77
2 Fear of problems with new technology – more like uncertainty avoidance.78
Some people are afraid of change, particularly when asked to do something
new. The fear that new technologies can come with new forms of hidden
hazards or drawbacks that will only be known, over time, leads to a situ-
ation where people try to avoid actions that can lead to uncertainties as
much as they can. People tend to be a little cautious when they have to deal
with new technologies and try to avoid uncertainties whenever possible.79,80
3 Upfront higher cost looms large, and future savings are discounted – more like
prospects theory.81 The prospects theory tries to describe how people respond to
potential gains and to potential losses. It touches more on people’s emotional
response to losses and gains. Losses loom larger because any kind of product
that seems to have a high upfront cost, such as energy-efficient products that
pay back over time, do cost more initially. This discourages people because
they are not quite sure if they will still be alive to reap the benefits of the high
initial investment cost of energy efficiency measures. Looking at things from a
psychological currency perspective, using prospect theory, one can say that the
initial investment cost is huge, the gains come in small increments over time
and in the future, the gains do not have the same impact as the initial loss of
funds, they get discounted very heavily, and it is not seen – psychologically – as
a net positive transaction. That is why people do not do it.
4 Savings too small to be worth the attention – more like diminishing
returns.82 People’s attention is limited to energy-efficiency measures
because they argue that the savings are too small. When they try to add up
their monthly savings and discover how little it is in comparison with what
their perceived savings ought to be, it discourages them and generally leads
to a business as usual situation.
 Electricity demand and infrastructure supply   23
Energy efficiency on the demand-side provides less need for new energy supply
technologies. However, the aforementioned socio-psychological drivers are key
contributors to increased demand for new energy supply infrastructure as many
people are not yet open to changing their energy consumption patterns and
behaviours.83 However, how would people respond to changes in energy
systems, and what kind of scenarios will people find more acceptable? The next
section delves into some of these issues.

Socio-psychological attitudes and political culture

Attitudes generally vary across populations. However, behaviours and attitudes
may not necessarily correlate well. Generally, in terms of demography, older
people tend to be more conservative about change than younger people and
women tend to be more risk-averse than men.79 It is precisely the impact of atti-
tudes on energy use that has led to increased demand (and then supply) of energy
infrastructure.28 The increased consumerist tendency of individuals – which is a
result of habits, beliefs, and values – is a contributing factor to increased energy
use, which demands the increased supply of energy infrastructure.
Essentially, this perspective asserts that just as attitudes influence culture,
individual attitudes of policy makers also influence culture in the political
sphere. Culture is those shared beliefs that people learn from society. There is
much evidence that argues that decision making in politics is influenced by the
political culture.84 Political culture entails the distinguishing habits, attitudes,
and behavioural patterns which characterize a political community. While the
political culture in the United States focuses more on individual freedom, some
other cultures may be more concerned with other issues such as collective equal-
ity85 – these settings matter for policy decisions that are taken.
Riemer argues that different political systems tend to support different political
cultures.86 They argue along the lines of how different political systems deal with
the constant power tussle within a nation and how politics (which is seen more as
a struggle for power) and political patterns advance accommodation, promote
cooperation, and resolve conflicts in domestic politics.87 These tensions, necessi-
tated by the political culture, also affect energy infrastructure decisions, which
can either favour new energy infrastructure provision, or otherwise.
In summary, this perspective emphasizes the role of the individual, their
habits, and the impact they have on energy infrastructure supply. It stresses the
need for a better understanding of people’s attitudes and habits and how they
shape decisions on energy infrastructure supply. Since attitudes are said to influ-
ence and drive behaviour (in the political sphere), it is the attitudes and values of
individual actors (coupled with organizational values) that shape decisions
within institutional contexts and frameworks. Indeed, individual values and attitudes
of policy makers are gaining prominence in influencing energy infrastructure
decisions. Understanding the increasing role of attitudes and habits of energy
end-users and decision makers in energy infrastructure supply can help in the
future governance of energy.
24   Energy demand and supply theories
Socio-technical transitions, energy demand, and
infrastructure supply
This perspective argues that energy infrastructure decisions, as well as technolo-
gical advances in energy, are underpinned by socio-technical systems. It is
argued that it is the organization of these systems that needs to be investigated to
understand infrastructure transition as part of servicing the needs of society.

Socio-technical transitions, technological change, and energy supply

Socio-technical transitions represent a joint transformation of coupled technolo-
gical and social systems, which enables society to realize benefits from techno-
logical innovation.88 These transitions can occur via various pathways, but often
require widespread learning and behavioural change.89
Verbong and Geels90 argue that there are three sectors that are responsible for
high energy consumption, which are critical in the consideration of socio-technical
transitions. These are: housing and energy; food and drink; and mobility.
Geels highlighted that when one considers mobility, one notices that several
infrastructure systems are interconnected in order to ensure smooth and easy
mobility.91 For example, the use of cars will require more elements to get the car to
function (e.g. fuel infrastructure, lifestyles, and markets). This reiterates how cars
have become embedded in our lifestyles; how cars have influenced the organization
of our cities; how they are relied upon for taking our children to school; how they
are essential to how we do our shopping; and how vital they are for commuting.92
Geels further argues that industry structure – and therefore massive economic
interests – also plays a role in the car industry (especially as the car industry is still
one of the biggest industries). Other interconnected systemic influences would
include the maintenance networks (when one’s car breaks down), regulations, road
infrastructure, and cultural dimensions as highlighted in Figure 2.1. Essentially,
there are a wide range of elements that need consideration if we are to understand
the structuring of socio-technical systems.93
Industry structure plays a major role in energy systems change. Crest and
Boisseuil in their work on “evolution in energy systems change” argued that tra-
ditional principles governing the management and organization of energy
systems in many OECD countries is being challenged.95 This is true of electri-
city infrastructure systems as the organization of most electrical power systems
today is based on generation capacity and the integration of networks, which all
started out in the beginning of the twentieth century as local networks. The tradi-
tional notions that, according to Crest and Boisseuil, have characterized the
coordination of traditional energy systems are:

•• One administrator at a central level takes responsibility for long-term elec-

tricity infrastructure planning, provision, and balancing demand and supply.
•• Adjusting electricity balance is based on supply-side management, which
has systemic implications for the generation and transmission network
infrastructure.
 Electricity demand and infrastructure supply  25

Regulations and policies Maintenance and Industry structure

(traffic rules, parking distribution network (car manufacturers,
fees, emission standards, (repair shops and suppliers)
car tax, etc.) dealers)

Markets and user

Road structure and
traffic system (lights
and signs)
Socio-technical
practices (mobility
systems for mobility
patterns, driver
(transportation)
preferences, etc.)

Culture and symbolic Vehicle (material artefact) Fuel infrastructure

meaning (freedom, (oil companies, petrol
individuality) stations, etc.)

Figure 2.1 Socio-technical system for mobility.

Adapted from 94.

• Managing electricity demand was achieved through tariff adjustment at

certain peak-load times.
• Electricity flow goes from upstream to downstream, i.e. from centralized
electrical generation plants to the end customer. The flow of payments goes
in the opposite direction.

These aforementioned traditional notions have really impacted electricity infra-

structure provisions across much geography.

How do transitions happen? The multi-level perspective (MLP)

The multi-level perspective (MLP) is one of the most commonly used transitions
theories, but not the only one. Here, the MLP has been adopted for the purpose
of illustrating the arguments in this section. The MLP has emerged as a result of
increased research in transition management,96,97 as shown in Figure 2.2. The
MLP focuses on changes in institutional actors and structures over time. Indeed,
three analytical levels are considered in a MLP system:

•• Niches – niches provide a platform for the development of radical innova-

tion, free from excessive external pressures. This is because niche technolo-
gies operate at a micro-level with minimal regulatory pressure, which aids
the development of new technologies and innovation.
•• Regimes – regimes operate at the meso level. They include a host of varying
numbers of inter-linked actors from different social groups with varying inter-
ests, whose activities are guided by socio-technical rules.94 They represent the
26   Energy demand and supply theories

Increasing structuration
of activities in local practices

Socio-technical
landscape
(exogenous Landscape developments
context) put pressure on existing regime,
which opens up, New regime
creating windows influences
Markets, user of opportunity for novelties landscape
preferences
Socio-
Industry
technical Science
regime
Policy
Culture
Technology
Socio-techncal regime is ‘dynamically New configuration breaks through, taking
stable’.On different dimensions there advantage of ‘windows of opportunity’.
are ongoing processes Adjustments occur in socio-technical
regime.

External influences on niches Elements become aligned,

(via expectations and networks) and stabilise in a dominant design.
Internal momentum increases.

Niche-
innovations
Small networks of actors support novelties in the basis of
expectations and visions. Learning processes take place on multiple
dimensions (co-construction). Efforts to link different elements in a
seamless web.
Time

Figure 2.2 Multi-level perspective on transitions.

Source: 98 (p. 407). Reproduced with permission.

complex array of interconnected technologies, procedures, infrastructure,

practices, and institutions which govern and constitute technological change.
• Landscape – landscape operates at the macro-level. It is heavily influenced
by a broad range of economic, social, cultural, environmental, geographic,
and class pressures. At this level, it is argued that changes occur quite
slowly due to the presence of multiple external pressures.94

Geels argues that there are no guarantees that a new novel technology or
piece of infrastructure will be used in the mainstream, mainly because of issues
to do with experimentation, start-ups and exits, trial and error, loaning, visions
and multiple visions, uncertainty about where to go, and the opposition from
competing technologies already operating in the mainstream (regime).99 Thus,
the point of a transition is that point when the internal momentum is maintained,
which is represented by a convergence of social, political, and cognitive interests
 Electricity demand and infrastructure supply   27
which leads to an agreement on where to go, which makes investors agree to put
their money into it and hence, make things work.
Momentum arises through: learning by doing, course performance improve-
ment, as well as powerful and influential actors putting their support behind the
innovation. This acknowledges the role of powerful individuals – who could be
political actors – in decision making. However, Geels argues that this does not
happen unless the existing regime starts to fall apart as a result of tensions and
cracks, which come through external pressures from a landscape that could
include war, oil shocks, crisis, climate change, etc. Geels argues that the whole
point of a transition is that you need multiple developments at the same time.97 It
is not enough to have new innovations and clamouring for change, but one needs
to also consider the other external contexts. Table 2.1 shows an example of a
MLP, highlighting the various stages in technological development, as well as
the mechanisms, cost, market share, and learning rate elements.
Making transitions happen is a crucial part in the MLP. Lorenz101 argues that
one can make transitions happen on the ground using the following proposed
modes of innovation:

•• STI (Science, Technology, and Innovation) mode – This is the dominant innova-
tion model where we think that innovation is simply research and develop-
ment (R&D) people sitting in the laboratory developing products, which will
be thrown into the market. Basically the core actors are big firms, universities,
and research institutes. Geels argues that there is a need to shift away from
this as this mode has a risk of high disappointment cycles where industry
makes beautiful promises about new technologies, which never come through
even after huge money is invested.99 Examples of this include smart grids and
carbon capture systems, which are yet to be widely deployed considering the
level of investment already made, and other related technologies.102 They make
promises and policy makers do not have the competencies to assess if these
promises are valid. From historical transitions, Geels further argues, it takes a
longer time for these innovations to be achieved and the result comes out too
late when we depend solely on R&D.99
• DUI (Doing, Using, and Interacting) – This model starts by working on con-
crete systems on the ground. It involves reconfiguring concrete transport
systems, energy systems, etc. Technological innovation is important here but it
does not have to be high-tech; social and institutional innovations are also
important and include a wider set of actors. Cities are not the only places
affected, but also our own particular locations. This mode encourages working
together with big firms, policy makers, and consumers (which include small and
medium enterprises, engineers) which is done more easily at the city level.99

Geels argues that in socio-technical transitions, there is a need to carry out the
projects in sequence, starting with small ones that require less investment, so as
to learn from that experience before embarking on a new (or bigger) one which
will serve as a continuation of the previous project, building upon the previous
Table 2.1 Stylized stages of technological development and typical characteristics

Stage Mechanisms Cost Market share Learning rate

Invention Idea and knowledge generation, Difficult to attribute 0% Hard to measure
breakthroughs; basic research to a particular idea/
product
Innovation Applied research, development, and High, increasingly focused 0% Hard to measure, high in
demonstration (RD&D) projects on a particularly learning (e.g. >50%)
promising product
Niche market Identification of special niche application; High, but declining with 0–5% 20–40%
commercialization investments in field projects; close standardization of
relationships between suppliers and users; production
learning by doing
Pervasive diffusion Standardization and mass production; Rapidly declining 5–50% Rapidly 10–30%
economies of scale; building of network rising
effects
Saturation Exhaustion of improvement potentials and Low, sometimes Up to 100% Severe competition
scale economies; arrival of more efficient declining
competitors into market; redefinition of
performance requirements
Senescence Domination by superior competitors; Low, sometimes Declining Severe competition
inability to compete because of ex hausted declining
improvement potentials

Source: Adapted from 100 (p. 249).

 Electricity demand and infrastructure supply   29
knowledge and experiences. This could take the form of single project or of
90

multiple parallel projects. He further argues that as we progress, over time, the
learning with respect to the articulation of the rules and best practices, the cogni-
tive rules, engineering rules, and institutional rules becomes clearer. Geels
argues that there is a need for the transitioning of local projects, which can be
achieved in the following ways:

1 Using single projects as stepping stones in a sequence of projects.

2 Using single projects in the context of a vision of wider systems change.
3 Focusing not only on direct outcomes (solutions) but also on the learning
processes, network building, and vision articulation.

The MLP approach is a useful tool in explaining sustainability transitions.

However, the MLP as an approach is now being employed in other areas where
it does not perfectly fit. This calls for a need to develop other approaches in
understanding energy systems change over time.

Path dependency and energy systems change

It is generally believed that historical decisions affect decisions made today, thus
leading to path dependency and systems lock-in. Arguably, historical events do not
take place randomly. Instead, they can be perceived as an emerging property of
interrelated circumstances. Path dependence explains how making current decisions
is limited by decisions made in the past.103 The choices we made in the past influ-
ence the choices we make today. Changes in technology, economic institutions, and
national economy are path dependent.104 Choices made in the past may leave society
locked-in with a sub-optimal technology or an inferior standard also referred to as
the “curse” of technological interrelatedness.105 A major argument why the old
systems prevail is that the cost of conversion to a new system exceeds the immediate
gains in operating efficiency. This is a key source of technological lock-in.
Path dependency explains how technological and institutional changes in society
are partly influenced by decisions and developments in the past, even when the cir-
cumstances and events of the past may not seem relevant today. A path-dependent
process evolves through a positive feedback mechanism as a consequence of its own
history. It results in a self-reinforcing pattern of development.106
Indeed, there is also a link between historical energy infrastructure decisions
and energy infrastructure decisions made today. This has some serious implica-
tions with respect to path dependency and systems lock-in which could take the
form of technological lock-in or institutional lock-in.107

Implications of decision making using the socio-technical

transitions paradigm
Policy makers have very important roles in governing transitions in every given
society. Some policy makers are neither strict rational actors nor fans of social
30   Energy demand and supply theories
psychological benefits. They are more concerned about how to ensure that
­decisions are made, and policies promulgated, that will help aid a quick transition
of some available niche technologies, accessible and available to a privileged few,
to reach more people. As such, if the provision of a particular energy infrastructure
will enable electricity, and other energy resources to be easily and readily access-
ible to more people, they support it, and if otherwise, they oppose it.
A lot of infrastructure has been (and is still being) provided in many develop-
ing economies simply because of the actions and pressure of powerful institu-
tions, governments, and policy makers. A good example is the United Nations
and other international agencies who have – over time – mounted pressure on
the need to increase access to energy and electricity for people in the developing
world, particularly in sub-Sahara Africa.108,109 All of these pressures have led to
significant commitments and the eventual gradual provision of energy infra-
structure to help improve energy access. This will lead to a gradual transition to
increased energy use and increased comfort levels.
In summary, this perspective stresses the importance of socio-technical rules in
effecting energy transitions. It stresses that how a system is organized determines
(to a large extent) the kind of energy infrastructure we end up with. It argues that
movement (transition) in technology – and as such, energy infrastructure provision
– is influenced also by social structures and systems. Indeed, this perspective also
argues that the way systems have been organized in the past (and historical deci-
sions from previous regimes) leads to path dependency and systems lock-in with
regard to the kind of electricity infrastructure we end up with.

Social practice theory, energy demand, and

infrastructure supply
This perspective argues that changes in energy infrastructure, as well as the type
of energy infrastructure provided, are influenced by changes in practices and
social situations. It further argues that the various elements of practices, such as
material, meaning, and competence, play a vital role in the way practices evolve
and the corresponding impact they have on energy infrastructure. This per-
spective moves away from the individualistic notion (as seen in techno-economics
and social psychology perspectives) towards a structural approach to reasons for
new energy supply infrastructure provisions.

Overview
Social practice theory is very different from psychology. Psychology focuses on
attitudes, beliefs, and values from the point of view of individual cognition.
Practice theory focuses on people’s (everyday) practices and doings within the
social context of the individual. This section focuses on how people’s practices
affect energy consumption, so lessons can be drawn and applied in the social
practices around energy supply provision.
There has been increasing use of the conceptual framework of social practices
theory in the study of energy consumption.110 However, much of the existing body
Another random document with
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The Project Gutenberg eBook of Napoléon intime
 This ebook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United
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eBook.

Title: Napoléon intime

Author: Arthur Lévy

Contributor: François Coppée

Illustrator: Edouard Detaille

Release date: January 29, 2024 [eBook #72805]

Language: French

Original publication: Paris: Nelson, 1910

Credits: Laurent Vogel and the Online Distributed Proofreading

Team at https://www.pgdp.net (This book was
produced from images made available by the
HathiTrust Digital Library.)

*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK NAPOLÉON

INTIME ***
 Napoléon intime

Par Arthur-Lévy
(Auteur de Napoléon et la paix)

Ouvrage couronné par l’Académie française

(Prix Thérouanne)

Précédé d’une étude par François Coppée

Orné d’un portrait de Napoléon par Édouard Detaille

Paris
Nelson, Éditeurs
189, rue Saint-Jacques
Londres, Édimbourg, et New-York
 COLLECTION NELSON

Publiée sous la direction de CHARLES SAROLEA,

Docteur ès lettres : Directeur de la Section française à l’Université
d’Édimbourg
 Étude [1] sur
“Napoléon intime”

PAR FRANÇOIS COPPÉE

[1] Cette étude a paru dans Le Journal du 9 Mars

1893.

Je ne connais pas M. Arthur-Lévy, mais il peut se vanter de

m’avoir fait un sensible plaisir, en m’envoyant gracieusement son
Napoléon intime.
Depuis une dizaine de jours, dès que j’ai une heure à moi, je la
consacre à ce gros in-octavo de plus de six cents pages, où, par un
prodigieux travail, l’auteur a patiemment réuni, avec textes et
preuves à l’appui, tous les témoignages favorables à la personne de
l’Empereur. C’est exactement la contre-partie, c’est même, à mon
humble avis, la réfutation de l’œuvre de Taine. Pour tout dire, la
ressemblance existe entre les deux livres. Car Taine, dans son
dernier et monumental ouvrage, Les Origines de la France
contemporaine, et particulièrement dans le volume consacré à
l’analyse du caractère de Napoléon, avait purgé son style
volontairement, j’en suis certain — d’imagination et d’éloquence, et
l’avait réduit à une sécheresse toute scientifique. C’est par
l’accumulation des petits faits, c’est par un tricotage — très curieux
du reste — de notules et de scolies, qu’il a soutenu son opinion —
j’allais écrire : son paradoxe — et qu’il a représenté l’auteur du Code
civil, et le vainqueur d’Austerlitz, sous les traits d’un atroce et funeste
condottiere.
Pour nous peindre Napoléon tel qu’il le voit, c’est à dire comme
un homme de génie, mais aussi comme un homme animé des plus
nobles instincts, M. Arthur-Lévy n’a pas employé d’autres procédés.
Comme Taine, et avec autant d’abondance que lui, il s’est contenté
de grouper des faits et des citations, et il a combattu
victorieusement, selon moi, les détracteurs de Bonaparte par la
même inflexible méthode.
En vérité, un tel livre était nécessaire.
Dans les dernières années du second Empire, et surtout depuis
sa chute, le courant de la réaction, la poussée de dénigrement et de
calomnies contre Napoléon Ier avaient dépassé les dernières limites
de l’injustice. L’acte monstrueux de la Commune, renversant, en
présence des Allemands vainqueurs, la colonne Vendôme sur un lit
de fumier, eut un caractère symbolique. Par une folie, que
l’imbécillité des passions politiques peut seule expliquer, la France,
le lendemain de sa défaite, semblait vouloir déchirer les plus
glorieuses pages de son histoire, avilir et souiller une épopée
militaire comme aucun peuple n’en a dans ses annales. On exhuma
les libelles anglais et les pamphlets de l’émigration. Bonaparte
redevint l’Ogre de Corse. Les propos de femme rancunière, comme
la Rémusat, les potins de laquais chassé comme ce voleur de
Bourrienne, firent autorité. Le moindre vice qu’on reprochât à
l’Empereur était l’inceste ; la seule excuse qu’on invoquât en sa
faveur était l’épilepsie. Il y eut des pères Loriquets orléanistes et
républicains, qui travestirent les personnages et dénaturèrent les
évènements à qui mieux mieux. Beaucoup de larmes de crocodile
furent répandues. Des Jacobins pleurèrent le duc d’Enghien, et des
royalistes s’attendrirent sur Malet. Il fut d’ailleurs convenu que,
même comme homme de guerre, Bonaparte avait été singulièrement
surfait. Chacune de ses victoires était due à l’un de ses lieutenants ;
et l’on dénonça avec indignation son envie et son ingratitude envers
ceux qu’il avait seulement faits princes, ducs et maréchaux. Des
stratèges de cabinet et de bibliothèque, des tacticiens armés d’un
simple couteau à papier, conclurent à la médiocrité de ce général,
qui avait cependant commandé en personne dans six cents combats
et dans quatre-vingt-cinq batailles rangées.
L’étude de Taine, que je ne confonds pas, à coup sûr, avec tout
ce fatras, mais qui n’en est pas moins, selon moi, l’erreur d’un grand
esprit, dupe et victime de son système, l’étude de Taine si imposante
par le talent et l’autorité de son auteur et par l’énorme labeur qu’elle
représente, semblait de nature à porter un coup décisif à la
renommée de Napoléon. Il n’en fut rien, pourtant ; à partir de cette
attaque, venue en dernier lieu, et certainement la plus redoutable de
toutes, l’opinion s’est brusquement retournée. Le patriotisme, et
aussi le besoin de justice et de vérité, qui est une des vertus de
notre race, protestèrent. On s’aperçut que le torrent d’accusations et
d’outrages avait glissé sur les gloires impériales sans les salir,
comme une averse sur l’Arc de Triomphe. De nombreuses
publications, parmi lesquelles il convient de citer au premier rang les
Mémoires du général Marbot, replacèrent la figure de l’Empereur
dans son vrai jour, et furent accueillies par le public avec une faveur
exceptionnelle. D’un seul coup d’aile, l’aigle de la Grande-Armée
reprit sa place légitime, la plus haute. L’œuvre de réparation, sans
doute, n’est pas complète ; mais elle se fait chaque jour, et ce
nouveau livre y contribuera.
M. Arthur-Lévy nous présente seulement, comme l’indique le titre
de son ouvrage, un Napoléon intime ; et si j’avais une reproche à lui
adresser, ce serait d’avoir un peu trop insisté peut-être, sur les traits
de simplicité, de bonhomie presque bourgeoise, très réels
cependant, qu’on trouve dans la vie privée de l’Empereur. Mais je ne
fais pas ici de critique littéraire, et je me borne à causer avec mes
lecteurs à propos d’une lecture qui m’a charmé. Ce qu’il y a
d’excellent dans ce livre, ce qui en fait la force, c’est que l’auteur, en
parlant d’un génie sans pareil, d’un météore comme il n’en a
flamboyé que quatre ou cinq dans le ciel de l’histoire, n’oublie pas un
seul instant qu’il parle d’un homme, soumis, dans une certaine
mesure, et malgré toute sa grandeur, aux mêmes fatalités de nature,
aux mêmes passions, aux mêmes habitudes que les autres. En
général, les ennemis de Napoléon le tiennent pour un monstre,
insensible comme tous les monstres ; et, à les en croire, toutes ses
actions et tous ses sentiments relèvent de la tératologie ! C’est
vraiment trop simple, et, avec ce point de départ, on va où l’on veut.
M. Arthur-Lévy, au contraire, s’efforce de montrer — et par
d’innombrables preuves — que Napoléon est un homme,
exceptionnel sans doute, doué comme personne peut-être ne le fut
jamais, mais un homme qui, dans l’existence de chaque jour, a
souffert et joui comme le premier venu. C’est un réaliste au fond,
que M. Arthur-Lévy ; mais un bon peintre de portraits doit toujours
être un peu réaliste. Ce portrait de l’Empereur est très ressemblant,
parce qu’il est très humain !
Ne me dites pas que mon goût pour le livre de M. Arthur-Lévy est
suspect, parce que vous savez que je suis admirateur passionné de
Napoléon et que dans mes promenades suburbaines, je vais tout
droit aux étalages de bric-à-brac où j’aperçois le Bivouac d’Austerlitz
et les Adieux de Fontainebleau. Non, je ne suis pas aveugle. Lisez
ce Napoléon intime, et quelle que soit votre opinion sur le modèle,
vous rendrez justice à l’artiste, et vous admirerez dans ces pages,
l’esprit d’ordre, le calme, la conscience, et surtout le haut sentiment
d’impartialité qui caractérisent le véritable historien.
Cependant, en fermant le livre, je n’ai pu me défendre d’une
mélancolie.
Qu’ils sont vains, nos efforts vers la vérité ! En toute chose, et
même en histoire ! Dans le lointain passé, quelles ténèbres ! Que
savons-nous ? Voici, par exemple, ces premiers Césars de la Rome
impériale. Ils nous apparaissent tous comme des scélérats. Mais qui
nous l’a dit ? Tacite, Suétone, Juvénal. Nous n’avons, pour les
condamner que le témoignage de leurs ennemis. Plus tard, quand
les documents sont nombreux et multipliés par l’imprimerie, c’est
leur abondance même qui fait que la postérité hésite à rendre un
verdict. Et puis, que de contradictions ! Un savant n’a-t-il pas
expliqué assez récemment la mission de Jeanne d’Arc par des
accidents hystériques ? Qui donc a prétendu que Lucrèce Borgia
était inceste et empoisonneuse ? Voici cet autre docteur en us qui
accourt les mains pleines de paperasses, et me donne la preuve du
contraire. Je connais donc bien mal ma Révolution française que
Marat me semble un tigre ! On l’a comparé à Jésus et, pour
beaucoup, il fait encore partie du “bloc”. Défense d’y toucher ! Si
j’ouvre ces deux journaux qui traînent sur la table du cercle, Thiers
est en même temps le fondateur de la République et le sinistre
vieillard aux mains sanglantes — Quel désordre ! Quel gâchis…
La vérité — qu’on pardonne ceci à un poète — elle est, je crois,
dans la légende. Et pour le grand Empereur, puisque nous parlons
de lui — elle est, tenez ! dans cette émouvante lithographie de
Raffet, que j’ai là, sur ma muraille.
Sous une lourde pluie d’automne, les grenadiers de la garde
défilent par sections, courbés de fatigue, les pieds boueux et
pesants, protégeant, d’un pan de leur capote, la batterie du fusil.
Nous sommes évidemment aux derniers jours de la campagne de
France, quelque part en Champagne. Dans le fuligineux paysage
rien que le vague squelette d’un moulin à vent, et, partout, le
moutonnement des bonnets à poil. Sur la gauche, s’éloigne
l’Empereur, à cheval, et tous ont le regard tourné vers son gros dos,
voûté et soucieux. Tous pensent à lui, mais lui ne songe qu’à son
affaire, qu’à sa bataille de demain ou de tout-à-l’heure. Et sur les
visages des soldats du premier plan, éclate un drame sublime de
souffrance et de fidélité.
Et l’artiste, sous cette pathétique image a tracé un mot sublime,
où éclate toute la noble folie des grenadiers pour leur Empereur et
des Français pour la gloire :
“Ils grognaient… et le suivaient toujours.”

FRANÇOIS COPPÉE.
 PRÉFACE DE L’AUTEUR

Napoléon, durant sa vie, a été tour à tour l’objet du culte et du

mépris de ses sujets. Aujourd’hui, — quoique l’influence de son
action individuelle sur les destinées de la France et de l’Europe ne
puisse encore être exactement définie, — sa mémoire nous partage
toujours en deux camps, les admirateurs et les détracteurs,
également zélés pour dénaturer, en bien comme en mal, la
personnalité de l’Empereur.
Or, les louanges excessives et les attaques virulentes, qui se
valent par leur exagération, s’annulent les unes les autres et laissent
la raison aussi peu éclairée sur le caractère de Napoléon que si rien
n’en avait été dit.
Toutefois, en étudiant la vie de l’Empereur avec droiture, on voit
bientôt la réalité se dégager de la légende dorée et de ce qu’il est
permis d’appeler la légende noire napoléonienne. Cette réalité la
voici : Napoléon ne fut ni un dieu ni un monstre, mais, simplement,
— selon la célèbre formule classique qu’on peut lui appliquer, — il
était homme, et rien d’humain ne lui était étranger. Le haut sentiment
familial, en effet, la bonté, la gratitude, la cordialité, furent ses
qualités essentielles.
Cette conclusion, qui, malgré son évidence, me mettait en
désaccord complet avec d’éminents écrivains, n’a pas été sans me
causer un peu d’hésitation.
 Avant de l’adopter définitivement, je me suis prescrit le devoir de
m’entourer de renseignements contradictoires, de vérifier les
assertions des amis de l’Empereur par les dires de ses ennemis.
Selon l’expression actuelle, j’ai interviewé, en quelque sorte, les
contemporains dans leurs écrits, les pressant de questions, tout en
ne retenant que les allégations corroborées, au moins dans leur
esprit, par plusieurs auteurs. C’est ainsi que j’ai apporté quinze,
vingt, parfois trente témoignages favorables, à l’encontre d’une
appréciation malveillante. Puis, voulant davantage encore, j’ai
contrôlé, au moyen de faits historiques, les attestations recueillies
dans les souvenirs de l’époque.
On ne trouvera dans cet ouvrage aucune opinion se rapportant à
Napoléon qui ne soit fondée sur des renseignements émanant des
sources les plus diverses, sur des textes officiels dont les originaux
sont faciles à consulter, soit aux Archives nationales, soit dans les
collections que j’indique soigneusement.
Enfin, par un dernier scrupule, j’ai tenu à ne point faire usage du
Mémorial de Sainte-Hélène, qui aurait souvent confirmé ma thèse.
J’ai estimé qu’il ne fallait pas prendre à un homme ses définitions de
lui-même, surtout lorsque cet homme, irrémissiblement vaincu, rayé
avant sa mort du nombre des humains, n’a pu avoir, sans doute
possible, d’autre visée en dictant ses mémoires que de se donner,
au regard des générations prochaines, la posture la plus
avantageuse à sa renommée, la plus profitable aux intérêts de sa
dynastie.
Bien qu’on ait dit à satiété que l’Empereur, au cours de son
règne, a été l’instigateur de toutes les guerres européennes, la
question, avant d’être tranchée, me paraît demander cependant un
supplément d’enquête, — quand on considère qu’après huit ans de
luttes permanentes avec l’Europe, sous la Révolution et sous le
Directoire, les quatre premières années du pouvoir personnel de
Napoléon furent une ère de reconstitution pacifique ; quand on est
obligé de constater que la théorie des guerres, commencée à la fin
du siècle dernier, se continue à présent avec une régularité presque
mathématique ; quand on voit encore aujourd’hui les mêmes
alliances se former, au nord comme au midi, contre la France.
L’histoire documentée des guerres de l’Empire n’est pas faite.
Pour l’écrire véridiquement, il importera beaucoup plus de connaître
à fond les archives des pays étrangers que celles de la France.
Le jour où l’on voudra déterminer si Napoléon a provoqué telle
guerre de son plein gré, ou si, au contraire, il n’a fait que prévenir
une agression imminente, la correspondance échangée entre les
souverains, à la veille des coalitions, sera autrement édifiante que
celle de l’Empereur avec ses agents.
Du rapprochement des résolutions de l’Empereur et des
combinaisons secrètes qui se tramaient, hors de France, aux heures
décisives des confits, naîtra, peut-être, un nouvel ouvrage qui sera le
complément de cette étude intime du caractère de Napoléon.

Arthur-Lévy.

Paris, 1er septembre 1892.

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