International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267

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International Journal of Forecasting

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijforecast

Demand forecasting for fashion products: A systematic review

∗
Kritika Swaminathan, Rakesh Venkitasubramony
Indian Institute of Management Lucknow, Lucknow 226013, India

article info a b s t r a c t

Keywords: Fashion is one of the most challenging categories for forecasting demand. Our study
Demand forecasting provides a systematic literature review of the different forecasting techniques used in
Fashion forecasting the fashion industry. Particular focus is given to advancements in artificial intelligence
Systematic review
and machine learning methods for predicting the demand for fashion products. Carefully
Artificial Intelligence
compiled literature is analyzed, and the papers are classified into qualitative, statistical,
Machine learning
artificial intelligence (AI), and hybrid techniques based on the forecasting method
adopted by researchers. Our review identifies the challenges in predicting demand, and
concludes by providing future research directions.
© 2023 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contents

1. Introduction............................................................................................................................................................................................. 247
2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 248
3. Methods used in fashion demand forecasting .................................................................................................................................... 249
3.1. Qualitative methods .................................................................................................................................................................. 249
3.2. Quantitative methods ................................................................................................................................................................ 250
3.2.1. Statistical and heuristics based methods ................................................................................................................ 251
3.2.2. AI and ML-based forecasting methods .................................................................................................................... 251
3.2.3. Hybrid methods.......................................................................................................................................................... 254
4. Explanatory variables in demand forecasting ..................................................................................................................................... 256
5. Challenges in fashion demand forecasting .......................................................................................................................................... 257
6. Future directions .................................................................................................................................................................................... 258
6.1. Incorporating data from multiple sources .............................................................................................................................. 258
6.2. Model interpretability ............................................................................................................................................................... 258
6.3. Extending forecasting to other decision areas ....................................................................................................................... 258
7. Conclusion ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 258
Declaration of competing interest........................................................................................................................................................ 259
Appendix ................................................................................................................................................................................................. 259
References ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 263

1. Introduction Ma, & Kolassa, 2019). Traditionally, forecasts have been

Demand uncertainty exists across all industries, and no
single forecasting model can cater to all sectors (Fildes,
∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: rakesh.v@iiml.ac.in (R. Venkitasubramony).
used as the base for designing and implementing supply
chain functions to navigate this uncertainty. Examples of
these supply chain functions include procurement, manu-
facturing, and distribution of goods and services to clients
(Boone, Ganeshan, Jain, & Sanders, 2019). With the re-
cent rise of the global fashion industry, the significance

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2023.02.005
0169-2070/© 2023 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony
of fashion retail supply chain management and, conse-
quently, the need for forecasting demand has increased.
The fashion industry is characterized by inherent uncer-
tainties in supply and demand, a lengthy and inflexible
supply process, a short life cycle, vast product variety
(e.g., style, color), a high propensity for impulsive buying
(Şen, 2008), seasonality of products, and preference for a
specific set of attributes over another (Minner & Kiesm-
ller, 2012). Consequently, forecasting demand for fashion
products is highly complex, and remains an interesting
and challenging study area.
For several reasons, a need for a literature review
was evident when analyzing the existing literature re-
views on demand and sales forecasting models for fashion
products. First, the few available literature reviews (Choi,
Hui, & Yu, 2011; Liu, Ren, Choi, Hui, & Ng, 2013; Nenni,
Giustiniano, & Pirolo, 2013; Thomassey, 2014) were pri-
marily carried out between 2011 and 2014. However, in
the years after 2014, significant work has been under-
taken that still needs to be reviewed. Second, the existing
literature reviews have certain limitations that must be
addressed. For example, Choi, Yu, and Au (2011) con-
sidered only select papers for review. Also, many hybrid
models were developed and published after their review
was published. Nenni et al. (2013) included only general
forecasting methods by highlighting product and market
features in the fashion industry. Liu et al. (2013) con-
sidered different types of methods, but their review did
not consider the challenges of other methods. Finally, the
earlier studies are not restricted to models used in the
fashion industry but include papers from sectors such
as electric loading (Willis & Parks, 1983), power plant
operations, and aircraft control (Yu, Choi, & Hui, 2012).
Our review addresses these limitations of previous
studies and emphasizes recent shifts in adopting artifi-
cial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), and hybrid
models. Also, it focuses more on the different techniques
used in the fashion industry and the challenges faced in
using predictive models. This study discusses only the
models used in the fashion industry and does not con-
sider papers from other industries that have been used
in earlier reviews. The maximum number of papers used
in earlier reviews concerning methods adopted in the
fashion industry was 30 (Liu et al., 2013). However, our
study includes a comprehensive analysis of 75 papers on
forecasting demand or sales of fashion products.
The remainder of the paper is structured as follows.
Section 2 outlines the methodology used to compile the
literature repository. Section 3 analyzes the selected pa-
pers and reviews the current state of different qualitative
and quantitative methods used for forecasting demand.
Section 4 discusses the explanatory variables employed
in forecasting models. Section 5 identifies some specific
challenges associated with the application of different
methods. Section 6 provides possible directions for future
work, and Section 7 concludes our discussion about the
current literature.
2. Methodology
This review aims to study the developments in dif-
ferent methods to forecast demand for fashion products.
248
International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267
This study emphasizes the various advanced techniques,
especially artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning
(ML) methods used in demand prediction. A systematic
literature review approach was adopted to ascertain that
all relevant papers were included and assessed in our
study. This approach was adopted for the following rea-
sons. First, the scientific and transparent process used
for exhaustive literature search in Systematic literature
review tends to reduce selection bias (Durach, Kembro,
& Wieland, 2017; Petticrew & Roberts, 2008; Tranfield,
Denyer, & Smart, 2003). Second, the review approach pro-
vides a structured methodology for screening, analyzing,
and mapping literature, which is essential for an effective
literature review (Rowley & Slack, 2004). The literature
review was conducted based on the guidelines described
by Tranfield et al. (2003) and Durach et al. (2017). Fig. 1
depicts the systematic literature review process with the
number of papers at each stage of scrutiny.
Initially, the search string was developed using key-
word structure groups (Table 2.1). The final Boolean
search string was: (Cluster1) AND (Cluster 2) AND (Cluster
3). ‘Scopus,’ ‘Web of Science,’ and ‘Business Source
Premier (via EBSCO Host)’ were the database sources used
to collect literature.
The initial inclusion criteria were that the papers
should include the keyword combination in their title,
abstract, or keywords list. A total of 3061 papers were
obtained. Further, we included the papers that were in the
English language only. We primarily focused on journal
papers and conference proceedings; editorials, books, and
book chapters were excluded at this stage. The results
were refined by excluding the journals and the subject
areas irrelevant to our study.
The next stage involved analyzing the abstracts to
understand the relevance of each study to our selection.
In this, we excluded those papers that included the search
terms but were irrelevant to this study; for example, nu-
merous papers based on forecasting of demand/sales (not
in the fashion industry) with the word ’fashion’ included
in their abstract were eliminated. For example, the study
by Qiao et al. (2021) is based on ’demand forecasting for
bike-sharing in an intelligent fashion; it includes all the
keywords’ demand,’ ’forecasting,’ and ‘fashion’ but is still
not relevant to our selection. Removing such papers led
to a drastic reduction in the number of relevant papers.
Further, in the next step snowball search of all the
works cited in the refined set of papers was carried out.
Later during the snowball search, we added a few book
chapters that we found relevant. Finally, after the removal
of duplications and the addition of papers obtained from
the snowball search, a total of 75 papers were obtained.
The 75 papers identified were further studied in-depth
to understand each methodology and identify themes,
details of which have been provided in Sections 3 to 6.
The rest of this paper has many acronyms, mostly com-
ing from specific names of methods. While these have
been expanded in their first occurrence in this paper, we
have also included a list of acronyms in Table A.2 in the
Appendix.
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony
Table 2.1
Keywords for literature search string.
Cluster 1: Fashion* OR Apparel* OR Cloth* OR Textile OR Garment*
Cluster 2: Predict* OR Estimation OR Forecast*
Cluster 3: Demand OR Sale*OR product*
Fig. 1. Methodology followed in systematic literature review.
3. Methods used in fashion demand forecasting
Studies in demand prediction for fashion products
have used various methods that have evolved with time.
Some examples are exponential smoothing (Brown, 1959),
the Holt-Winters (HW) model (Winters, 1960), Regres-
sion models (Papalexopoulos & Hesterberg, 1990), Clus-
tering, different types of Neural Networks (Craparotta,
Thomassey, & Biolatti, 2019; Frank, Garg, Raheja, & Sz-
tandera, 2003; Zhu, Qin, Suganthan, & Huang, 2005), Fuzzy
methods (Thomassey, Happiette, & Castelain, 2002a; Vro-
man, Happiette, & Rabenasolo, 1998), Survey-based meth-
ods (Zellner, Abbas, Budescu, & Galstyan, 2021). As with
most general discussions on forecasting, we also clas-
sify the methods used in forecasting demand for fashion
products into two categories: Qualitative and Quanti-
tative methods. While the Qualitative methods include
techniques such as Expert judgment, Delphi, and An-
alytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), the Quantitative meth-
ods comprise traditional time-series methods, artificial
intelligence, and hybrid methods for demand prediction.
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International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267
3.1. Qualitative methods
Qualitative methods are beneficial when limited or no
data is available, and in cases where it may be challenging
to use the quantitative methods (Frank et al., 2003).
Traditionally forecasting for fashion products was highly
influenced by retailers’ and experts’ opinions (Perera,
Hurley, Fahimnia, & Reisi, 2019). Commonly used quali-
tative methods include Judgement-based, Survey-based,
and Delphi methods. Table 3.1 provides a comparison
of these forecasting methods. Limited work has been
done by researchers in using qualitative methods for
forecasting demand in the fashion industry. Also, these
methods are primarily used in conjunction with a quanti-
tative method (Fisher & Raman, 1996; Mostard, Teunter,
& de Koster, 2011).
Several studies in different fields have indicated that
forecasting models perform better when the experts’
knowledge is combined with data analytics techniques
compared to utilizing only one (Coussement, Benoit, &
Antioco, 2015; Franses & Legerstee, 2011). However, in
fashion retail, no study has been found that predicts sales
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267

Table 3.1
Comparison of different qualitative techniques used in forecasting.
Method Expert judgment-based method
Based on Based on an expert’s
knowledge of a subject.
Use in Fashion Usually combined with
historical data or used in
conjunction with quantitative
methods (QM).
Studies conducted Green and Harrison (1973)
Fisher and Raman (1996)
Fisher, Rajaram, and Raman
(2001) Mostard et al. (2011)
Delphi method
Based on the same
questionnaire for all experts.
It can be used both standalone
to identify essential elements
of forecasting or combined
with QM
Noh and Ulrich (2013)
Mantrala and Rao (2001)
AHP
Based on the relative
assessment and ranking by
experts.
It can be used in conjunction
with QM
Ren, Chan, and Ram (2017)

using product attributes and the opinions of domain ex-
perts as predictive variables (Loureiro, Miguéis, & da Silva,
2018).
Expert judgment-based methods
Initially, Green and Harrison (1973) employed votes
of a panel comprising only female members to forecast
demand for a mail-order apparel retailer. The study ex-
pressed demand as a function of the price of the product
and the number of votes cast by consumer panel mem-
bers. Another model was proposed by Fisher and Raman
(1996), in which experts’ opinions were combined with
the limited historical data for estimating demand. De-
mand estimates were made by individual members of the
expert buying committee comprising seven members. The
demand was assumed to follow a normal distribution,
where the mean and standard deviation were calculated
using the mean and standard deviation obtained as an
average of the demand estimates provided by individ-
ual committee members. Fisher et al. (2001) proposed a
similar model wherein the committee consisted of four
members instead of seven, as employed by the model in
Fisher and Raman (1996).
Earlier, most models calculated demand only based
on the inputs from an expert committee, which con-
sisted predominantly of buyers or purchase managers.
However, Mostard et al. (2011) proposed a model for
single-period products that included the advance order
information from the customers and combined it with the
information provided by the experts or purchase man-
agers. The expert judgment methods employed in the
study included experts’ averages, where the average of
the demand forecasts provided by the members was cal-
culated. The second method proposed by Mostard et al.
(2011) involved calculating the average forecast over the
maximum, minimum, and most likely values provided by
experts. The forecast was calculated for a single period
and fixed price.
Delphi method
The Delphi method is a qualitative technique used
to obtain a reliable consensus from a group of experts
through multiple rounds of questionnaires (Dalkey &
Helmer, 1963). This method has been known to reduce
bias in achieving consensus (Chalmers & Armour, 2018).
While most judgment-based studies considered only the
demand estimates of products, Noh and Ulrich (2013)
250
used the Delphi method and found color to be the most
important component for forecasting. Mantrala and Rao
(2001) proposed a forecasting method considering prod-
uct seasons and price levels. The method involved ob-
taining the maximum, minimum, and most likely demand
estimates from each group member for different price
levels and calculating the final demand for the month
using the Delphi group method. The final values were
used to parameterize triangular approximations of the
probability distribution of demand.
Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)
AHP is a multiple-criteria decision-making method
that measures the criteria utilized in decision theory,
dispute resolution, and models (Vargas, 1990). It can assist
practitioners in making decisions by ranking the available
alternatives (Golden, Wasil, & Levy, 1989). Ren et al.
(2017) used AHP and industrial surveys to identify the
most promising forecasting technique among AutoRegres-
sive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), Grey Method
(GM), Extreme Learning Machine (ELM), and Pure Panel
Data (PPD) model. The best forecasting technique was
identified by evaluating and ranking them based on the
five criteria of Data Sufficiency, Speed, Accuracy, Stability,
and ease of use of the method. The study revealed that
decision-makers find PPD outperforms other methods.
3.2. Quantitative methods
Judgment-based forecasting may yield higher fore-
cast errors due to inconsistency and bias (Fildes et al.,
2019), which diminishes forecast accuracy in the long
term. Uncertainty in fashion industry demand cannot
be accounted for completely using qualitative demand
forecasting methods. However, more accurate demand
forecasting models can be designed using quantitative
methods based on historical data and other variables such
as weather, size, color, and economic factors. Further,
quantitative methods in fashion demand forecasting can
be categorized into statistical and heuristic-based, artifi-
cial intelligence, and hybrid methods. Table 3.5 compares
the aforementioned categories of quantitative forecasting
techniques.
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony
3.2.1. Statistical and heuristics based methods
Time has often been considered the main factor for
customer demand prediction, and practitioners have em-
ployed time-series methods based on the statistical prop-
erties of historical data to estimate future demand for
products (Montgomery, Jennings, & Kulahci, 2008). The
statistical techniques include methods such as moving
averages (MA), regression models (Papalexopoulos & Hes-
terberg, 1990), exponential smoothing (ES), Box & Jenkins
model (Box, Jenkins, Reinsel, & Ljung, 2015), and the HW
model (Winters, 1960). The techniques have proved to be
very useful in forecasting demand or sales in different
areas (Kuo & Xue, 1999). However, their effectiveness
depends on the application area and the forecast horizon
(Armstrong, 2001).
Time-series-based models
Lenort and Besta (2013) used Hierarchical forecasting,
utilizing the Box-Jenkins method for forecasting demand.
The method produced the least error and was found to be
more accurate. Steinker, Hoberg, and Thonemann (2017)
used the Seasonal Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Av-
erage with exogenous factors (SARIMAX) model; they
incorporated weather factors and found that including
weather factors in the model improved the demand fore-
cast by reducing the error. Nucamendi-Guillén, Moreno,
and Mendoza (2018) used the Seasonal Indexes Multi-
plicative Model (Makridakis et al., 1982) to determine
the demand forecast for fashion products for inventory
planning. Vo, Le, Nguyen, Nguyen, and Do (2021) com-
pared ARIMA and Holt’s regression model for demand
prediction and found that ARIMA produced the least error
and therefore was more accurate.
Bayesian method-based models
Bayesian methods used data from previous seasons to
predict the demand for new products. Green and Harrison
(1973) used a simple Bayesian method; however, Choi
(2007) captured the market changes using a two-stage
Bayesian approach model with information updated to
address the demand fluctuations, determine pre-season
inventory pricing decisions, and develop a quick response
policy for fashion retailers. To predict seasonal peak de-
mand for woolen apparel, Rahman, Sarker, and Escobar
(2011) used Bayesian Probability (BP) and Bayesian Prob-
ability with the incomplete data (BP-I) model. Compared
with the multiplicative exponential smoothing model (M-
ES), the proposed method yielded a lower deviation and
was less biased.
Heuristic-based models
Heuristics have been developed employing the statis-
tical properties of data. Mostard et al. (2011) focused on
pre-order demand information and used methods based
on top-flop, equal, and preview divisions. The study re-
vealed that the approach based on the top-flop method
gave the most robust predictions and prevented over-
forecasting of SKUs with greater preview demand. Fumi,
Pepe, Scarabotti, and Schiraldi (2013) proposed a fore-
casting method based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT)
251
International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267
algorithm. They found that it yielded lower error values
than the traditional MA and ES methods.
Panel-data based models
To accommodate additional parameters such as color
and weather, which affect demand, Ren, Choi, and Liu
(2015) used a hybrid panel data-based particle-filter
(PDPF) model for forecasting fashion products’ sales. They
found that the item-based PDPF sales forecasting model
was more accurate than that based on color, outper-
forming ARIMA and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM).
Yu and Lin (2022) compared the proposed panel data-
based model to the ELM-based model and revealed that
the panel data-based model produces a smaller prediction
interval with a lower level of forecasting confidence. Also,
the study demonstrated that the panel data-based model
outperformed the ELM-based model in every weight set-
ting of the weights assigned to the evaluating criteria of
prediction interval and level of forecasting confidence. In
a novel approach, He, Ren, and Zhu (2022) proposed a
panel data-based model that used search index data from
search engines for forecasting demand. A search index
was created by selecting keywords corresponding to the
apparel, then by categorizing data according to trends or
emotions, and finally, by developing a composite index.
This search index was incorporated into the panel data-
based model, which was more accurate than the pure
panel data-based model.
Other important models
Li and Lim (2018) used a greedy decomposition method
to address the issue of intermittent demand forecasting.
The model used a combination of Holt-Winters expo-
nential smoothing and simple exponential smoothing to
forecast demand and greedily allocated the total demand
to each SKU and store based on the forecasts. Rashid,
Khan, and Ghosh (2020) used a Fuzzy inference system
(FIS) to build a model for garment sales prediction, con-
sidering both qualitative and quantitative aspects of the
knitting industry; comparison with traditional methods
revealed that the FIS model produced a lower error and
therefore provided better accuracy.
The time-series method’s benefit is that they are sim-
ple and relatively fast. Goldstein and Gigerenzer (2009)
suggested that simple models may perform well and are
not necessarily inferior to more complex and sophisti-
cated forecasting models. However, these models are in-
capable of processing high volumes of non-linear data.
Also, pure statistical methods may not perform well ow-
ing to the irregular pattern and high variability in demand
(Choi, Hui, & Yu, 2011), thus leading to lower accuracy of
forecasts.
3.2.2. AI and ML-based forecasting methods
In contrast to traditional demand forecasting tech-
niques, ML-based forecasting has aided organizations in
improving customer involvement and generating more
accurate forecasts as they move into new channels or
markets (Bohanec, Kljajić Borštnar, & Robnik-Šikonja,
2017). ML techniques could help forecast demand be-
cause they can handle extensive interrelations between
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony
Table 3.2
Summary of papers using AI/ML-based models in fashion demand forecasting.
Title Horizon
Frank et al. (2003) Medium-term
Das and Chaudhury (2007) Short-term & Medium-term
Au, Choi, and Yu (2008) Short term
Yu, Choi, Au, and Kwan (2008) Medium-term
Sun, Choi, Au, and Yu (2008) Short term
Lin et al. (2010) Medium-term
Xia, Zhang, Weng, and Ye (2012) Short-term
Fangshuai, Liu, Saiyin, and Qing (2015) Short-term
Du, Leung, and Kwong (2015) Short-term
Loureiro et al. (2018) Short-term
Giri, Thomassey, Balkow, and Zeng (2019) Short-term
Craparotta et al. (2019) Long term
Caglayan, Satoglu, and Kapukaya (2020) Short-term
Güven and Şimşir (2020) Long term
Güven, Uygun, and Şimşir (2021) Short-term
Liu, Ming, and Hu (2021) Short-term
numerous causal elements with non-linear relationships
that affect demand (Ampazis, 2015; Tanaka, 2010), hence
enhancing supply chain performance (Minis, 2007).
Despite their widespread use, statistical techniques
have shortcomings, such as the time and effort required
to translate qualitative data into a quantitative form, the
necessity to aggregate information, and the availability of
time series data. Availability is challenging, particularly
for products in the fashion industry, due to the rapid
turnover of stock-keeping units and the erratic nature of
sales patterns (Hui & Choi, 2016). New techniques, such
as AI and ML models, have emerged to compensate for
these limitations. These approaches can handle massive
datasets containing nominal and numeric data (Tan, Yu, &
Lee, 2005). Using these methods, it is possible to construct
complicated, non-linear relations between sales and the
variables of previously sold goods. These relations may be
used to forecast future item sales (Wong & Guo, 2010).
Table 3.2 provides a snapshot of different AI and ML-based
models used in fashion demand forecasting.
Neural Networks (NN)
Among the AI techniques, using artificial neural net-
works (ANNs) in forecasting demand and sales has been
widespread (Chang & Wang, 2006; Frank et al., 2003;
Sztandera, Frank, & Vemulapali, 2004; Yoo, 1999; Zhang,
Patuwo, & Hu, 1998). NN is a mathematical model com-
posed of a network of artificial neurons; the strength of
the connection between two nodes is called ‘‘weight’’.
Learning rules modify the network’s weights better to
match the underlying relationship of the provided data.
Multiple studies indicate that ANN is more effective than
traditional techniques (Alfaro, García, Gámez, & Elizondo,
2008; Lachtermacher & Fuller, 1995; Lam, 2004; Weigend,
Rumelhart, & Huberman, 1990)
In fashion forecasting, Caglayan et al. (2020) used ANN
to forecast sales of an all-season shoe model, considering
non-linear data. However, Güven and Şimşir (2020) com-
pared Support Vector Machine (SVM) and ANN models
using datasets with and without color data and found that
SVM performed better with color detail than ANN, which
performed better without color detail.
Kuo and Xue (1998) state that ANNs are superior to
conventional forecasting methods. However, most ANN-
based sales forecasting techniques employ gradient-based
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International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267
Methods used
SSES, Winters’ 3 parameters, model, ANN
ANN/RNN
ENN
ENN
ELM
GM (1,1) GNNM (1,1)
AD-ELM
ID3 DT
MOONN
DNN
DNN and NN MLP
SNN
ANN
ANN & SVM
KNN, RF
MDL-NN
learning algorithms, such as back-propagation neural net-
work (BPNN), which cause over-tuning, slow convergence
speed, and excessive computation time (Du et al., 2015;
Sun et al., 2008).
Evolutionary Neural Network (ENN)
To improve the performance of ANN, Evolutionary
computation (using a Genetic Algorithm) is combined
with NN to form ENN. The ENN works relatively faster
than traditional ANN models. Au et al. (2008) used ENN
to anticipate short-term sales of fashion products. They
found that the method outperforms the Seasonal Auto-
Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA)
when less historical data is available for forecasting. Yu
et al. (2008) used ENN and proposed a web-based fore-
casting system. ENN model works well in non-linear con-
ditions, and evolutionary computing produces accurate
forecasts. These converge faster than ANN, and at times
it costs only half of the time of the conventional ANN (Au
et al., 2008). A shortcoming of ENN is that it performs well
when demand uncertainty does not vary much within
a week and the demand does not display a consistent
seasonal trend.
Extreme Learning Machine (ELM)
Since the learning algorithm in ENN is based on gra-
dient, it continues to face the problems of over-tuning
and long computation time (compared to the time-series
method SARIMA). A learning algorithm termed an Ex-
treme learning machine (ELM) was proposed to address
these (Huang, Zhu, & Siew, 2006; Zhu et al., 2005).
ELM outperforms classic gradient-based learning algo-
rithms considering their speed and generalization ability.
Additionally, it addresses many issues, such as over-tuned
problems, local minima, learning epochs, learning rate,
and stopping criteria (Huang, 2003; Huang & Babri, 1998;
Tamura & Tateishi, 1997). As a result of these factors, ELM
has been employed for forecasting the demand and sales
of fashion products. Sun et al. (2008) showed that ELM
and its extension might be utilized for predicting sales of
fashion products and can yield lower forecasting errors
than models based on BPNNs. To cope with the problem
of overfitting and improve accuracy during seasonal fluc-
tuations, Xia et al. (2012) incorporated Adaptive Metrics
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony
of inputs for forecasting sales for fashion retailers using
an Extreme Learning Machine (AD-ELM).
Most models considered minimizing error as their pri-
mary objective, which disregarded the problem of over-
fitting, caused due to lack of historical data. For this,
Du et al. (2015) proposed a multi-objective optimization-
based Neural Network model (MOONN) which utilizes a
multi-objective evolutionary algorithm termed nondom-
inated sorting adaptive differential evolution algorithm
(NSJADE) to optimize the input weights and hidden bi-
ases of NN. This improved forecasting accuracy while re-
ducing overfitting. The algorithm outperformed Extended
ELM and Hybrid Intelligent based models by a substantial
margin.
While ELM has numerous advantages over gradient-
based learning algorithms, one drawback is that its output
varies with time owing to the random selection of input
weights and hidden biases. Due to these reasons, ELM may
need considerably more hidden neurons (Zhu et al., 2005).
Deep Learning
For NNs to produce valuable results, it is important to
select input variables and network characteristics such as
the rate of learning, the number of nodes, and hidden lay-
ers in each layer cautiously (Hussain, Knowles, Lisboa, &
El-Deredy, 2008). It is essential to reduce dimensionality
to increase the effectiveness of learning. Deep learning
facilitates this by automatically extracting features from
data with little human involvement in feature selection
(Chong, Han, & Park, 2017).
Also, NN-based techniques are effective in case of lim-
ited historical data. However, these techniques cannot
perform well for products without historical data or new
products. For this, the deep learning method performs
well; it can predict future sales based on past sales and
similarities between old and new items. Loureiro et al.
(2018) used Deep Neural Network (DNN) to predict sales
of new products with no historical sales data. Although
DNN is a more effective forecasting tool, its training pro-
cess is very complex compared to other methods and
therefore is seldom applied for smaller datasets.
Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)
Another important NN-based method is CNN, which
assumes that inputs are complex, improves the efficiency
of implementing the forward function, and minimizes the
number of network parameters. Owing to their ability
to readily analyze image similarity and learn the prop-
erties of fabric representation, CNNs have been exten-
sively utilized in the fashion sector, primarily for garment
recognition (Li, Sun, Wang, & Liu, 2015) and recommen-
dation systems (McAuley, Targett, Shi, & van den Hen-
gel, 2015; Qian, Giaccone, Sasdelli, Vasquez, & Sengupta,
2017). CNN is rarely used to improve sales forecasting.
However, Craparotta et al. (2019) employed a CNN-based
model, Siamese Neural Network (SNN), which comprises
two twin CNNs. SNN supports different data types, such
as numerical, categorical, and image. CNNs and SNNs are
used for image processing and can be instrumental meth-
ods in fashion forecasting since they aid in image analysis,
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International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267
which helps to improve fashion sales forecasts. Addition-
ally, SNNs provide prediction consistency and symmetry
because of the same inner workings of the networks.
When using various forecasting approaches, overfit-
ting and underfitting are two major aspects that must be
considered, along with applying appropriate model selec-
tion techniques (Bartlett, 1996; Rissanen, 1978; Xia et al.,
2012). Besides Au et al. (2008), we did not encounter stud-
ies that have included model selection in their research.
Also, the model selection technique proposed in the study
is time-consuming and probably may not produce desired
results. Recently, Liu et al. (2021) used minimum descrip-
tion length (MDL) to prevent overfitting by minimizing
the model’s description length and finding an ideal model
size, i.e., the number of neurons (Small & Tse, 2002). The
study uses MDL to determine the best configuration for a
NN to use for predicting time series and, in this case, the
daily sales of shoes.
Classification
Classification is a supervised learning ML activity in
which the model maps the input variables to the output
variable (Giri & Chen, 2022). Among the numerous data
mining techniques for identifying time series (Lee & Oh,
1996) and classifying patterns (Youssif & Purdy, 2004), lo-
gistic regression and linear discriminant analysis perform
satisfactorily in many situations (de Andrés, Landajo, &
Lorca, 2005). However, these models have limited classi-
fication accuracy when input and output data set linkages
are non-linear or complex.
In these situations, ML methods are better suitable
for creating basic and interpretable pattern classification
models (Lee & Oh, 1996; Müller & Wiederhold, 2002).
The most popular models are (Kervahut & Potvin, 1996;
Zopounidis & Doumpos, 2002): DT (Breiman, Friedman,
Olshen, & Stone, 2017), NN (Schocken & Ariav, 1994),
Bayesian networks (Langley, Iba, & Thompson, 1992), and
genetic algorithm classifiers (Goldberg, 2013). Decision
trees (DT) and NN are the most commonly used classifiers.
While NN has a low classification error rate and is resilient
to noise, DT is easier to interpret (Zhou & Jiang, 2004) and
is faster than NN.
Classification techniques such as random forest (RF)
and k-nearest neighbour (KNN) are widely employed for
demand prediction. In the fashion industry, intermittent
demand is a common issue that can be addressed using
classification techniques, although MA and ES methods
are used for this purpose (Güven et al., 2021). Recently,
Güven et al. (2021) used KNN and RF methods for in-
termittent demand forecasting of fashion products, us-
ing many predictor variables to achieve higher accuracy
where RF outperformed KNN.
One of the advantages of choosing RF is that we can
determine the relevance of the study’s variables. This
could lead to eliminating less effective variables and us-
ing effective ones for future predictions. Random forest
generates several DTs, eliminating their drawbacks (Zhu
et al., 2020). RF selects random characteristics to construct
a subset to optimize tree length and overfitting (Zhou, Lu,
Zheng, Tolliver, & Keramati, 2020). The RF technique pro-
vides advantages, such as, improving the training speed,
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267

Table 3.3
Shortcomings of AI/ML forecasting techniques.
Methods Shortcomings
NN Overtuning, slow convergence speed, excessive computation time, BPNN-based
learning algorithm.
ENN Moderate convergence speed, moderate computation time.
ELM Varied output due to random selection of input weights.
DL Complex training process, data extraction. Faster than ENN but still
time-consuming.
CL DT classifiers are not resilient to noise in data. NN-based classifiers are
relatively slow and difficult to interpret.

Table 3.4
Methods used in developing hybrid forecasting models.
Fuzzy based Grey-based NN based Clustering and
Classification
When to For new products, when When none or least To improve forecast To include a large
choose? similar or no historical historical data is present accuracy when limited number of attributes.
data is present. historical data is present.
Advantages of Relatively simple, it A simple model, mostly Improved accuracy and Easy to interpret.
choosing the helps in the combined with NN, training model results in
method quantification of similar reduces overfitting and the least human
data. yields reduced time intervention
costs.
Shortcomings Large computation time Inputs extracted from Overfitting, underfitting, Prototypes or sales
of methods linguists and expert convergence profiles generated may
intervention is needed in be different from future
building the model. sales profiles.

reducing overfitting, and enhancing the capacity to deal
with numerous features; nevertheless, tuning the param-
eters directly impacts the forecast’s performance. This is
the most complex task of RF applications (Zhou et al.,
2020; Zhu et al., 2020).
3.2.3. Hybrid methods
There are conflicting findings about the performance
implications of demand forecasting ML approaches (Bo-
hanec et al., 2017; Faraway & Chatfield, 1998). For in-
stance, several researchers determined that classical or
statistical methods, such as ES and Winters exponential
smoothing, provided forecast accuracy that was similar to
or, in some cases, superior to that of ANN (Foster, Collopy,
& Ungar, 1992).
There are three sources of uncertainty in any forecast-
ing effort: data uncertainty, parameter uncertainty, and
model uncertainty (Petropoulos, Hyndman, & Bergmeir,
2018). The shortcoming of a single technique to estimate
demand effectively due to its inability to manage sev-
eral sources of uncertainty is a potential cause of incon-
sistency. This failure prompted researchers to integrate
other ML methods and statistics techniques to create hy-
brid techniques, such as ARIMA mixed with ANN (Aburto
& Weber, 2007; Armstrong, 1986; Jain & Nag, 1997).
Several results indicated the superiority of integrated
forecasting methods, particularly combining traditional
time series with ML techniques. However, applying ML-
based algorithms to homogeneous and heterogeneous
datasets produced inconsistent outcomes (Makridakis,
Hyndman, & Petropoulos, 2020). A further concern with
ML approaches is the method’s complexity, which hinders
254
its adoption (Bohanec et al., 2017). Numerous shortcom-
ings of pure statistical and AI/ML methods have been
highlighted in Table 3.3. Considering them, researchers
have devised hybrid methods that may help address the
limitations and improve the pure demand forecasting
model. Table 3.4 summarizes the different methods
for developing hybrid models for forecasting fashion
demand.
Fuzzy-based hybrid models
A problem in developing new products is the difficulty
of capturing consumers’ taste or need for a new prod-
uct. What kind of product does a customer want? What
would be the demand for a product? These doubts are
not quantifiable due to a lack of data in the absence of
the predecessors of a product. However, this problem has
been addressed in the fashion industry using data related
to similar products. As sufficient data may not always
be available, fuzzy set theory is employed to represent
the uncertainty of expert knowledge for forecasting un-
known parameters (Mula, Poler, & Garcia-Sabater, 2008).
The fuzzy set theory is a technique used for integrating
information into an uncertainty model in the absence of
statistical information or while working with qualitative
inputs representing expert assertions regarding the data
(Matos, 2007). The accuracy of prediction varies with
different methods used along with the Fuzzy technique.
For forecasting new products, Vroman et al. (1998)
proposed a hybrid fuzzy-adaptive model based on sales
data that could control the weight factors of an ES fore-
casting method such as the HW method. Further,
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony
Table 3.5
Comparison between the different types of quantitative demand forecasting models.
Parameters Statistical
Speed Fast due to lesser
calculations.
Accuracy Low
Computation Time Less
Interpretability Easily interpretable due
to the simple model
Dimensionality Mostly linear,
(Linear/Non- considering limited
Linear) sources of data
Data volume Low
handling ability
Thomassey et al. (2002a) used an Automatic Hybrid fore-
casting model with Fuzzy estimation of Corrective Co-
efficients of the explanatory variables (AHFCCX) to in-
corporate the non-linear aspect of explanatory variables.
The model provided better accuracy when compared with
statistical models.
Fuzzy methods and NN have often been used to predict
demand for fashion products. The reason is that the Fuzzy
method and NN are complementary as the fuzzy logic
method uses linguistic and verbal inputs from experts,
while NNs extract information from systems to be learned
or controlled (Lin & Lee, 1996). This combination has been
used by Frank et al. (2003) and Sztandera et al. (2004)
to incorporate multiple explanatory variables (such as
sales and product attributes) and account for the non-
linear relationship. Another type of model based on fuzzy
and NN, an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference sys-
tem (ANFIS), was employed by Thomassey, Happiette, and
Castelain (2005) and Aksoy, Ozturk, and Sucky (2012).
Thomassey et al. (2005) improved the earlier model on
AHFCCX. They developed a forecast system with several
models, such as the Short-term forecasting model, by
adjusting of mid-term forecast adaptive neural fuzzy in-
ference system (SAMANFIS) and Items forecasting model
based on the Distribution of Aggregated forecast and Clas-
sification (IDAC). A neuro-fuzzy system is considered a
more accurate model for interpretation (Kuo & Xue, 1999),
as it permits users to alter a few parameters, such as the
input membership functions classical parameters (Jang,
1993; Klir & Yuan, 1995). However, the study proposed by
Huang and Liu (2017) revealed that ANFIS-based models
provided lower error values than ANN.
In a novel approach, Giri, Thomassey, and Zeng (2019)
proposed social media-based forecasting (SMBF), which
employed a forecasting model with fuzzy time series to
predict sales of fashion products using social media data
and historical sales data. This study revealed that data
from social media improves the sales forecasts of apparel
and that this model can be simply incorporated into any
time series forecasting model.
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International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267
AI/ML Hybrid
Relatively slower due to Faster than pure AI/ML
high volume data but slower than
calculation. statistical methods due
to high-volume data
calculation.
Moderate High
High Higher than pure AI/ML
but slower than
statistical methods
Relatively difficult due to Most difficult when
the complicated compared with other
structure of the models types of methods due to
complex models.
Non-linear, considering Non-linear, considering
multiple sources of data multiple sources of data
Large Very large
Recently, Zhou, Meng, Wang, and Qin (2021) used
the fuzzy clustering-rough set method to incorporate
the consumers’ purchasing preferences and proposed an
improved Bass model for fashion clothing. This employs
historical sales data for similar apparel to predict demand
for new products.
Advanced NN-based hybrid models (excluding fuzzy model)
To eliminate unreasonable initial forecasts due to the
random determination of hidden biases and input weights
in ELM (Zhu et al., 2005), Wong and Guo (2010) used
a hybrid intelligent (HI) model integrating ELM and the
harmony search (HS) algorithm to minimize training error
for forecasting medium-term fashion sales. The HI model
outperformed the Autoregressive (AR), ARIMA, NN, and
ENN models.
ELM models are faster than ANN, but the outputs are
relatively unstable. Yu, Choi, and Hui (2011) proposed an
intelligent fast sales forecasting model (IFSFM), a hybrid
model combining ELM and a traditional statistical method
to improve this. IFSFM can achieve accurate forecasts
in a short time for numerous SKUs simultaneously. The
method is very efficient when forecasting needs to be
done within a limited time.
The color of the product can be a good predictor of
sales. However, earlier studies did not capture consumer
preferences for color. Li, Chen, Yang, Huang, and Huang
(2020) used images of the products and employed a quan-
tified version of those images in the forecasting model
based on multinomial logit (MNL) and NN. The proposed
multinomial logit modeling captures the association be-
tween color features and popularity.
Recently, Xu, Zhou, Zhang, Wang, and Lefloch (2021)
proposed another model for demand forecasting that does
not rely solely on the historical sales data of comparable
products but also incorporates additional factors impact-
ing sales. The model was based on Multilayer Perceptron
(MLP) and CNN. While the former extracts categorical
data (e.g., item style and color), the latter extracts time-
series data (holiday period, promotion period). The model
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony
was more accurate than MA, AR, and ARIMA, and it ad-
dressed the problems associated with handling non-linear
data.
A drawback of the models that use image-based and
categorical data-based models is that they have limited
training data and may be prone to error.
NN models may lead to computational losses due to
training and have a long computation time. Li, jiang, Yang,
Zhu, and Zhang (2021) proposed a novel method of Com-
posite gate recurrent unit (GRU)-Prophet Model with an
Attention Mechanism to address this. GRU improves the
iteration speed; the attention mechanism prevents key el-
ements from vanishing and highlights them. The Prophet
model improves the speed and optimization of time se-
ries. The composite model improves the convergence ac-
curacy, training efficiency, and speed and outperforms the
individual models.
Models based on Clustering and Classification
Hybrid models of Clustering and Classification based
methods have often been used for forecasting. Gener-
ally, a combination of clustering and classification tech-
niques has been used to predict sales profiles of new
products for which historical data is unavailable (Giri &
Chen, 2022; Kharfan, Chan, & Firdolas Efendigil, 2021;
Thomassey & Fiordaliso, 2006; Thomassey & Happiette,
2007). Thomassey and Fiordaliso (2006) proposed a two-
stage method of clustering using k-means and classifi-
cation using DT. Thomassey and Happiette (2007) pro-
posed a Neural Clustering and Classification (NCC) method
where the model combined a Self-Organizing Map (SOM)
Neural Network with k-means for clustering to overcome
the problem of sensitivity to noise and outliers and com-
putation cost. Probabilistic Neural Networks (PNNs) are
used for classification due to their accuracy, generaliza-
tion, adaptability, quick learning (Jin, Srinivasan, & Cheu,
2001; Specht & Shapiro, 1991), and interpretability (Srini-
vasan, Jin, & Cheu, 2004) for forecasting future sales pro-
files of fashion products.
Kharfan et al. (2021) used a three-step hybrid model
comprising clustering, classification, and prediction and
analyzed different algorithms. Recently, Giri and Chen
(2022) used deep learning, clustering, and classification.
The CNN-based model was used for image extraction, and
among the classifiers (SVM, RF, Naive Bayes, and NN), the
NN model emerged to be the best-performing model.
Chen and Lu (2021) used two clustering-based hy-
brid models for forecasting demand in multiple channels.
While the first model was obtained by integrating k-
means clustering with Support Vector Regression (KM-
SVR), the second was obtained with Extreme Learning
Machine (KM-ELM). Even after increasing the dimension-
ality of data by including additional meteorological fac-
tors, the two hybrid models outperformed the pure SVR
or ELM models.
In addition to NN, DTs are also used for classification.
Ni and Fan (2011) combined Autoregressive technology
(ART) and Decision trees. The ART method is better than
the AR or NN models because it works with non-linear
relation data models for periodic data. Teucke, Ait-Alla,
El-Berishy, Beheshti-Kashi, and Lütjen (2016) proposed a
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two-step model for post-order demand forecasting that
used DT and SVM to estimate the post-order volumes for
fashion products.
Grey method-based hybrid models
In addition to fuzzy techniques, grey systems theory
has also been used for building accurate forecasting mod-
els. Grey models can function well in case of limited
or no data availability and are often combined with NN
to obtain a demand forecasting product. While GM is
simple, convenient, and needs less data for modeling,
NN is capable of parallel calculations, has fault tolerance,
and possesses a self-learning ability to handle complex
problems. A hybrid model possesses the characteristics of
both methods and tends to work well with limited data,
providing higher accuracy and producing a controllable
error.
While pure Grey-based methods work well in some
cases, the hybrid model works well in others. Lin et al.
(2010) compared the GM and Grey Neural Network
Method (GNNM) for forecasting the trend of color and
tones for fashion products. The study revealed that GM
performs better than GNNM. However, the Choi, Hui, Ng,
and Yu (2012) study showed that a hybrid GM and ANN
model outperformed pure GM, ANN, and Markov Switch-
ing (MS) models. The study suggested that the hybrid
model reduces overfitting, yields reduced time costs, and
improves the accuracy of forecasts.
A drawback of the fast fashion industry is the short-
selling period which constrains data availability and re-
stricts the time for forecasting. To address this, Choi, Hui,
Liu, Ng, and Yu (2014) developed a model, the Fast Fashion
Forecasting (3F) algorithm, for predicting demand with
limited data and within a limited time. The model com-
bined ELM and GM. Also, the model forecasted demand
accurately when tested using industry data.
Other important models
Other hybrid models proposed are based on various
algorithms. Yue et al. (2016) proposed a demand fore-
casting model that used a unique artificial bee colony
with an optimized polynomial fitting (ABC-PF) algorithm.
It was more accurate than the MA, SVM, and Radial Ba-
sis Function Neural Network (RBFNN) methods. Another
unique model was proposed by Choi, Hui, and Yu (2011),
where a hybrid forecasting model that combines SARIMA
and wavelet transform (SW) was developed. Silva, Has-
sani, Madsen, and Gee (2019) proposed a non-parametric
hybrid model Denoised Neural Network Autoregression
(DNNAR) based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) and
the Trigonometric Box–Cox ARMA trend seasonal (TBATS)
method. The model employed Google trends data to en-
hance forecasting accuracy. The study compared five
models, namely ARIMA, ES, TBATS, Neural Network Au-
toregression (NNAR), and DNNAR, and revealed that
DNNAR outperformed the others, providing improved ac-
curacy.
4. Explanatory variables in demand forecasting
The demand for products in the fashion industry is
strongly impacted by numerous factors that can often
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267

Table 4.1
Explanatory variables and their implementation in developing forecasting models.
Explanatory variable Studies
Attributes of product: Choi et al. (2014, 2012), Craparotta et al. (2019), Ferreira, Lee, and Simchi-Levi (2016), Frank
Includes item type, color, et al. (2003), Giri, Thomassey, Balkow, and Zeng (2019), Green and Harrison (1973), Güven
size, style, fabric, and et al. (2021), Kharfan et al. (2021), Li et al. (2020), Loureiro et al. (2018), Ren et al. (2015),
weight Sun et al. (2008), Teucke et al. (2016), Thomassey et al. (2005), Xu et al. (2021), Yu et al.
(2011), Zhou et al. (2021), Sztandera et al. (2004), Güven and Şimşir (2020)
Weather parameters: Arunraj and Ahrens (2016), Bahng and Kincade (2012), Bertrand, Brusset, and Fortin (2015),
Including temperature, Caglayan et al. (2020), Chen and Lu (2021), Choi, Hui, and Yu (2011), Du et al. (2015),
pressure, and Fangshuai et al. (2015), Fisher and Rajaram (2000), Güven et al. (2021), Steinker et al. (2017),
precipitation Güven and Şimşir (2020)
Online information Cui, Gallino, Moreno, and Zhang (2018), Giri, Thomassey, Balkow, and Zeng (2019), See-To
and Ngai (2018)
Calendar days Caglayan et al. (2020), Ferreira et al. (2016), Güven et al. (2021), Kharfan et al. (2021), Li and
Lim (2018), Ni and Fan (2011), Thomassey et al. (2002a), Xu et al. (2021) Güven and Şimşir
(2020)
Price Aksoy et al. (2012), Craparotta et al. (2019), Green and Harrison (1973), Güven et al. (2021),
Kharfan et al. (2021), Loureiro et al. (2018), Ni and Fan (2011), Ren et al. (2015), Sun et al.
(2008), Thomassey and Fiordaliso (2006), Thomassey and Happiette (2007), Thomassey,
Happiette, and Castelain (2002b), Xu et al. (2021), Yu et al. (2011), Zhou et al. (2021), Wong
and Guo (2010)
Promotions Ferreira et al. (2016), Kharfan et al. (2021), Ni and Fan (2011), Singh, Gupta, Jha, and Rajan
(2019), Xu et al. (2021), Güven and Şimşir (2020)

not be controlled and, at times, remain unknown. These
explanatory variables may influence product demand, but
it is hard to quantify their impact (de Toni & Meneghetti,
2000).
Little (1998) identified a set of variables (non-
exhaustive list) that significantly influence purchasing
decisions for a product. The variables may or may not
be correlated to a particular product. The impact of these
variables fluctuates with time and cannot be estimated
easily. The list of variables is non-exhaustive, but some of
the essential variables primarily considered for demand
forecasting have been included in this study. Different
factors are incorporated to improve the accuracy of de-
mand forecasts while constructing a forecasting model.
Forecasts are based on numerous variables, and Table 4.1
depicts studies with a few variables included in demand
forecasting models to improve their accuracy.
5. Challenges in fashion demand forecasting
Generally, demand forecasting is highly challenging for
numerous reasons, such as the evolution of new prod-
ucts, the short-life cycle of products, and product re-
turns (details of the challenges have been provided in
Petropoulos et al. (2022)). Additionally, forecasting de-
mand for fashionable products becomes cumbersome for
multiple reasons ranging from the product attributes to
the environment in which forecasting is carried out.
Dataset Availability
Researchers have identified the availability of limited
datasets as one of the primary challenges in forecasting
demand for fashion products. Also, the lack of sufficient
data for demand forecasting of new items poses a prob-
lem. Giri, Thomassey, Balkow, and Zeng (2019) and Xu
et al. (2021) identified the need for a larger dataset to
develop an accurate model. Mostard et al. (2011) and
Craparotta et al. (2019) suggested the inclusion of limited
257
SKUs and their data as a shortcoming of their respec-
tive studies. Li et al. (2020) identified the availability of
limited data for training as one of the drawbacks of the
model proposed in their study. Ren et al. (2015) and
Chen and Lu (2021) address the challenge of using limited
historical data to build an accurate demand forecasting
model. Another model developed by Loureiro et al. (2018)
performed well under small datasets.
Demand Censoring effect
In most cases, a certain amount of demand may have
been lost owing to stock-outs, causing the total sales
to fall short of the total demand. When actual demand
exceeds the product’s availability, it is termed the demand
censoring effect. This leads to developing a forecast model
with less accuracy and more prone to errors. Most mod-
els that consider historical data for demand forecasting
may not consider lost demand, as most of the historical
sales data is obtained from point-of-sale (POS), which
does not include the stock-out details. However, there
have been several attempts to include lost sales while
building demand prediction models. Anupindi, Dada, and
Gupta (1998), Musalem, Olivares, Bradlow, Terwiesch, and
Corsten (2010), Van, Talluri, van Ryzin, and Talluri (2005),
and Vulcano, van Ryzin, Ratliff, Research, and Vulcano
Leonard Stern (2012) have provided methods to evaluate
lost sales for partially substitutable products. Fisher and
Rajaram (2000) proposed a model to evaluate lost de-
mand based on when the stock dropped to zero. However,
the model considers limited sales data only and does
not consider factors that may lead to lost demand. Garro
(2011) estimated the lost sales of Zara’s products, and
Ferreira et al. (2016) included the lost sales while building
the demand prediction model for Rue La La. Recently,
Kharfan et al. (2021) highlighted explicitly that lost sales
were not considered in the model developed in their
study. One of the primary reasons may be the inability
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony
to include merchandise image data. Extracting historical
and image data properly can help address this issue.
Uncertainty in exogenous variables
The inability of demand forecasting models to account
for external variables reduces the accuracy of forecasts. de
Toni and Meneghetti (2000) pointed out that it is tough to
identify these variables and quantify their impact. The ex-
planatory variables heavily influence consumer behavior
and subsequent demand. Little (1998) provided a non-
exhaustive list of variables, but it is challenging to develop
a model capable of quantifying their impact.
Intermittent demand
The fashion industry has short-selling cycles, due to
which there are frequent demand fluctuations. Forecast-
ing intermittent demand for products in fast fashion is a
cumbersome task. Li and Lim (2018) suggested that there
are instances where numerous time periods of sales have
zero demand, i.e., the demand is intermittent, which leads
to increased complexity in demand forecasting. Most tra-
ditional methods are incapable of addressing the intermit-
tent demand. However, artificial intelligence techniques
can provide more accurate demand forecasting models
because they can handle complex and large volumes of
data.
Overfitting and underfitting
The challenge of overfitting or underfitting is faced
while working with ML algorithms. In ML methods, over-
fitting occurs when a complicated model outperforms a
simple one on training data (Schaffer, 1993). Researchers
have identified the challenges of overfitting, and a few
have taken measures to address them. Thomassey et al.
(2002a) mentioned overfitting due to noisy sales data.
Frank et al. (2003) pointed out that ANN models can over-
fit sales data because of high noise levels in data. Several
models have been successful in overcoming the problem
of overfitting. Xia et al. (2012) addressed overfitting and
underfitting, and Au et al. (2008) used ENN instead of ANN
to obtain accurate forecasts in noisy data. Another model
proposed by Choi, Hui, and Yu (2011) worked well in data
with a high level of white noise. Also, the model proposed
by Du et al. (2015) addressed overfitting caused due to a
lack of data.
Computation time
While AI techniques provide a higher level of accu-
racy, a problem that may be encountered is their high
computation time. This problem is more common in the
NN techniques and hinders the improvement in the speed
of the forecasting process. To address the problem, Sun
et al. (2008) used a faster NN technique ELM, Au et al.
(2008) used the ENN method, and Choi et al. (2012)
used a hybrid model of ANN with GM and MS. Recently,
Singh et al. (2019) used an innovative transformation that
eliminated the need to remember training data while
forecasting, thus improving the computation speed and
reducing the time taken. Another model proposed by
Chen and Lu (2021) used clustering with ELM to shorten
the computation time further and alleviate the data’s
complexity.
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6. Future directions
The analysis of existing literature reveals that there has
been a remarkable improvement in the use of machine
learning and hybrid methods, and developments are still
going on. Some of the future directions of research are:
6.1. Incorporating data from multiple sources
Machine Learning methods can address the problems
related to non-linearity in data. Also, the models can
incorporate data from multiple data sources. A future area
of work is to include structured and unstructured data
sources while developing a forecasting model. This can be
achieved by transforming unstructured data such as text,
images, audio, and videos into a structured form using
text mining and image recognition algorithms (e.g., Deep
Learning). Limited work has been done in this direc-
tion, and the major area remains unexplored. Researchers
have included data from sources such as in-store videos
(Musalem, Olivares, & Schilkrut, 2021), search data (Boone
et al., 2019), and online social media data (Cui et al., 2018).
6.2. Model interpretability
Simple models are easy to adopt since retailers can
comprehend them. However, they are less accurate since
they fail to consider the non-linear aspect of predictive
models. ML models provide higher accuracy but are rel-
atively hard to interpret. Further work may be done to
improve the interpretability of complex models by using
feature engineering concepts, which helps establish rela-
tions between numerous predictors and the outcome vari-
ables, thus improving the interpretability of forecasting
models.
6.3. Extending forecasting to other decision areas
Assortment planning, pricing, and inventory replenish-
ment are major areas affected by product demand. Fore-
casting techniques facilitate demand planning; therefore,
forecasting models can further improve stores’ overall
revenue.
7. Conclusion
This study systematically reviewed the literature on
forecasting in fashion products. This study discusses fash-
ion demand forecasting and explores the different meth-
ods adopted for forecasting. It also identifies the com-
mon explanatory variables used in developing forecasting
models in the fashion industry. It broadly categorizes
these forecasting methods into traditional models, arti-
ficial intelligence, and hybrid methods. The study elab-
orates on the advancements and the improvements in
accuracy of these models that have evolved through the
years.
The review indicates that time was initially considered
the single factor in demand prediction. However, highly
sensitive data, such as features of products, weather con-
ditions, online information, and merchandise images, have
K. Swaminathan and R. Venkitasubramony International Journal of Forecasting 40 (2024) 247–267

also been incorporated into recent demand forecasting
models. Based on the literature reviewed, Table A.1
(Appendix) summarizes the papers in chronological order,
including the methods adopted and their main findings.
This study highlights the shortcomings of forecasting
models and identifies different challenges researchers
have faced in building accurate prediction models. It has
been observed that purely qualitative methods are
employed less in forecasting the demand for fashion prod-
ucts. Moreover, most prediction models rely on only a sin-
gle source of data (historical point-of-sales data), which
may cause errors in forecasting models since studies
reveal that including multiple data sources (such as ex-
planatory variables) reduces forecasting errors. As a re-
sult, to improve the efficiency of forecasting models,
researchers have suggested integrating data from mul-
tiple sources in the forecasting model as an area for
improvement.
Furthermore, this review identifies the challenges
faced in demand forecasting for fashion products, such
as the availability of datasets, demand censoring effects,
uncertainty in exogenous variables, intermittent demand,
and overfitting and underfitting of forecasting models.
It also identifies the computation time taken by these
models and the work done to address these challenges.
Among the many difficulties researchers face, addressing
the demand intermittence in the fashion industry using
machine learning forecasting models has been identified
as an area in which continuous research would impact the
fashion sector tremendously.
This literature review does have some limitations.
First, it does not present a generalized model for fashion
demand forecasting. This would be challenging as the
methods are so diverse and contextual. Nevertheless, it
will be a great addition to have a generalized framework
for fashion demand forecasting, at least in the case of AI-
and ML-related techniques. Our study helps with the un-
derstanding of the current state of research, but a reader
who wishes to use our study to develop a forecasting
model will find this to be a limitation. Second, we con-
sidered only journal papers and conference proceedings
(some book chapters that appeared during the snowball
search were included in our study). Also, our review does
not include papers with a cursory mention of fashion
products or papers that belong to any other industry with
characteristics like that of the fashion industry. Third, we
do not address issues such as how forecasting is linked
to other important decisions, for example, assortment
planning, inventory control, replenishment, and pricing.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known com-
peting financial interests or personal relationships that
could have appeared to influence the work reported in
this paper.
Appendix
See Tables A.1 and A.2.

Table A.1
Summary of different types of methods.
Paper Type of method Method used Main findings
Green and Stat LR The Bayesian method, experts’ votes, and product price are
Harrison (1973) used to predict demand.
Fisher and Raman Qual Expert’s opinion-based Demand estimates made by experts assumed to follow a
(1996) method normal distribution where the standard deviation and mean
were evaluated using the average of the demand estimates
provided by individual committee members.
Vroman et al. Hyb HW, Fuzzy The fuzzy-based model regulates the weight factors of the ES
(1998) method, predicts sales for new items, and outperforms the
HW method.
Mantrala and Rao Qual Delphi Maximum, minimum, and most likely demand estimates were
(2001) taken from each group member for different price levels to
estimate the final demand.
Thomassey et al. Hyb AHFCCX The hybrid fuzzy model incorporated explanatory variables to
(2002a) address the non-linear aspect of data.
Thomassey et al. Hyb AHFCCX, SAMANN & IDA The two-step model with mean-term forecasting used a fuzzy
(2002b) model (AHFCCX) followed by a short-term adjustment using
the neural network-based forecasting model (SAMANN) for
aggregating items at different levels.
Frank et al. (2003) Hyb SSES, Winters’ The fuzzy-based ANN model incorporated multiple data (color
3-parameter model, ANN and size), outperforming the Winters 3 parameter model and
SSES model.
Sztandera et al. Hyb ANN, Fuzzy The multivariate fuzzy model performed better than univariate
(2004) models.
Thomassey et al. Hyb SAMANFIS, AHFCCX, The two-step model with mean-term forecasting used a fuzzy
(2005) IDAC model (AHFCCX) followed by short-term adjustment using
adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (SAMANFIS) based
forecasting model for aggregating items at different levels.

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Table A.1 (continued).

Paper Type of method Method used Main findings
Thomassey and Hyb Cl and DT The clustering & DT-based model helped estimate the sales
Fiordaliso (2006) profiles of new products without past sales information.
Choi (2007) Stat BM A Bayesian method with market information updating is used
to forecast demand, thereby developing a quick response
policy.
Das and AI ANN Optimum neural network architecture for the ANN model
Chaudhury (2007) identified to predict sales of footwear.
Thomassey and Hyb NCC, SOM, and PNN The neural clustering and classification approach is used to
Happiette (2007) improve midterm forecasting compared to mean sales profile
prediction.
Au et al. (2008) AI ENN ENN outperforms SARIMA for low-demand uncertainty and
weak seasonal items.
Yu et al. (2008) AI ENN Web-based forecasting model based on ENN produced
accurate forecasts and converged faster than ANN.
Sun et al. (2008) AI ELM ELM outperforms BPNN-based forecasting algorithms.
Wong and Guo Hyb HS-ELM The model includes a learning algorithm that combines an
(2010) improved HS algorithm with an ELM method to increase
network generalization and outperforms ARIMA and
BPNN-based methods.
Lin et al. (2010) Hyb GM (1,1) model, GNNM Grey Method (GM) and Grey Neural Network Method (GNNM)
(1,1) models predict the trend of color hues and tones for fashion
products.
Mostard et al. Stat ADI Top-flop classification method outperforms other methods.
(2011) Expert judgment performs better than the ADI method in the
case of a smaller set of items.
Rahman et al. Stat BP, BP-I BP-based model for seasonal peak demand for woolen yields a
(2011) lower deviation than M-ES.
Choi, Hui, and Yu Hyb SW SW model works well when data is highly variable and has
(2011) weak seasonality.
Ni and Fan (2011) Hyb ART, DT & BPNN Forecasting in two stages. Adjustment-improving model
developed by integrating ART approach with NN- based error
forecasting model.
Yu et al. (2011) Hyb ELM + Statistical method Compared to traditional procedures, the ELM fast forecasting
model is more effective.
Bahng and Stat Statistical tests Temperature is identified as an important parameter that
Kincade (2012) significantly impacts seasonal garments sales.
Xia et al. (2012) AI AD-ELM The inputs’ adaptive metrics employed in the model mitigate
the NNs’ overfitting. The model outperforms ANN, AR, and
ELM models.
Aksoy et al. (2012) Hyb ANFIS The fuzzy inference-based model improves one-month
(short-term) forecast accuracy.
Choi et al. (2012) Hyb ANN, GM, MS & GM+ANN model outperforms others in forecasting the color
GM+ANN trend for fashion products with minimal historical data.
Yesil, Kaya, and Hyb MA, ES & PLCB The model includes a combiner that uses fuzzy logic to
Siradag (2012) compute a weighted average of several projections for each
week’s demand. The combined forecast is more accurate.
Yu, Hui, and Choi Hyb ELM + GRA The GRA-ELM model provides better accuracy than other ANN
(2012) and GM models and is less time-consuming than others.
Fumi et al. (2013) Stat FFT Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) outperformed traditional MA and
ES methods.
Lenort and Besta Stat HF Box-Jenkins method produced the least error and was more
(2013) accurate for forecasting demand.
Noh and Ulrich Qual Delphi Two questionnaires were conducted, and color was identified
(2013) as the most important component in forecasting fashion
products.

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Table A.1 (continued).

Paper Type of method Method used Main findings
Choi et al. (2014) Hyb EELM+GM Fast Fashion Forecasting (3F) model developed using Extended
ELM and grey method to improve demand forecasts with
limited data and within a limited time.
Xia and Wong Hyb SDGM Discrete grey model used to forecast sales for small historical
(2014) data sets with seasonality.
Ren et al. (2015) Stat PDPF Sales forecasting model using a panel data-based particle-filter
model outperformed ARIMA and RVM.
Fangshuai et al. AI ID3 DT Decision tree-based model used to forecast demand and
(2015) address non-linear data that includes weather, size, and color
as input variables.
Du et al. (2015) AI MOONN MOONN-based forecasting model used to optimize the input
weights and hidden biases of NN to improve forecasting
accuracy and reduce overfitting.
Arunraj and Stat MLR- AR MLR-AR was used to assess the impact of weather parameters
Ahrens (2016) on the demand prediction of fashion products.
Shafik and Stat TSF, regression A high correlation between weather and sales volume was
Program (2016) identified, and TSF and regression method-based predictive
models were used to reduce forecast error.
Teucke et al. Hyb DT and SVM A two-step model was used to classify items using a decision
(2016) tree and predict post-order volumes for articles using SVM.
Ferreira et al. Hyb RB Regression trees with bagging outperformed other models, and
(2016) bootstrap aggregation reduced variance due to a single
regression tree.
Yue et al. (2016) Hyb ABC-PF ABC - Polynomial fitting-based model outperformed MA, SVM,
and RBFNN models in forecasting demand for fashion products.
Steinker et al. Stat SARIMAX SARIMAX model incorporating weather factors reduced the
(2017) error and improved the demand forecast.
Huang and Liu Hyb ANFIS NN and fuzzy-based hybrid model used to reduce the error
(2017) value of forecasts and obtain a lower value than the ANN
method.
Ren et al. (2017) Qual AHP The pure panel data (PPD) model was identified as the best
model based on accuracy, speed, stability, and data sufficiency
requirements.
Li and Lim (2018) Stat HWS HW exponential smoothing and greedy decomposition used
for demand prediction and allocation to SKUs.
Nucamendi- Stat SIMM Time series forecasting with the trend and seasonal
Guillén et al. components used for estimating sales using historical data and
(2018) sales behavior.
Loureiro et al. AI DNN Forecasting model with unique input variables such as
(2018) expectation levels, family, and store type used.
Cui et al. (2018) AI Lasso regression, SVM, Social media information was incorporated into the
GBM & RF forecasting model to improve forecast accuracy. RF model was
identified as the best-performing method.
See-To and Ngai Stat AR The AR-based model was more effective when both online
(2018) customer reviews and sales data were incorporated into the
forecasting model instead of including only sales data.
Giri, Thomassey, AI DNN and NN MLP Image data was extracted using DNN, and historical sales data
Balkow, and Zeng was used in the MLP model to predict demand for female
(2019) apparel products.
Craparotta et al. AI SNN SNN uses categorical, numerical, and image-based data to
(2019) build a forecasting model.
Singh et al. (2019) Hyb LSTM Demand forecasting for new items can be done with proper
feature engineering combined with XGBoost. LSTM was found
to perform better than MLP over different time series data.
Giri, Thomassey, Hyb SMBF Fuzzy time series forecasting model with social media data
Balkow, and Zeng was used to improve the accuracy of the proposed forecasting
(2019) model.

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Table A.1 (continued).

Paper Type of method Method used Main findings
Caglayan et al. AI ANN Determine the influence of independent variables on the
(2020) forecasting model and identify the optimal ANN structure.
Güven and Şimşir AI ANN & SVM SVM performed better for datasets with color detail, and ANN
(2020) performed better without color detail.
Ren, Chan, and Stat ARIMA Two-step forecasting model developed using ARIMA along
Siqin (2020) with qualitative inputs from experts’ market analysis insights.
Li et al. (2020) Hyb MLM and NN Image data used for predicting color preference using MLM
and NN-based models.
Vashishtha et al. Hyb AbM Age-based forecasting method to predict forecasts for the next
(2020) season, along with feature engineering. The age-based model
(Xgboost and DL) outperforms the baseline Xgboost and DL
model.
Zhou et al. (2020) Hyb Bass model, Fuzzy Fuzzy-based methods are used for predicting demand for new
Clustering products using historical data of similar products.
Wazarkar and Hyb RMSC, classification, RMSC used for clustering social media images outperforms
Keshavamurthy regression Rough K-Means (RKM) and fuzzy C-means (FCM). A
(2020) comparison of predictive models reveals that the
Three-method approach and the Gaussian Naive Bayes
classifier work best for all fashion products.
Rashid et al. Stat FIS Fuzzy inference system considering both qualitative and
(2020) quantitative aspects of the knitting industry for demand
prediction and providing better accuracy.
Vo et al. (2021) Stat ARIMA ARIMA-based model produced better results than Holt’s
regression model.
Güven et al. AI KNN, RF Intermittent demand was predicted using many variables
(2021) where RF outperformed KNN.
Liu et al. (2021) AI MDL-NN MDL-NN identifies the best configuration of NN and prevents
overfitting.
Chen and Lu Hyb KM-ELM and KM-SVR Historical and meteorological data used to predict demand for
(2021) both physical and virtual channels using KM-SVR and KM-ELM.
Gardino, Meo, and Hyb VIBE & CNN VIBE is used to reconstruct missing data. VIBE, CNN &
Craparotta (2021) clustering were used to improve demand forecasts.
Kharfan et al. Hyb Clustering, Classification, Three-step model of clustering, classification, and prediction
(2021) and Prediction used for forecasting demand of new items. RT, RF, k-NN, and
LR used for clusters with multiple lifecycle, mono-lifecycle,
high sales volume, and AUR, respectively.
Xu et al. (2021) Hyb MLP & CNN Categorical (such as color and item style) and time-series data
(such as holiday and promotion) are used to build a
forecasting model that outperforms AR, MA, and ARIMA.
Li et al. (2021) Hyb (GRU) NN –Prophet GRU Prophet model used to improve iteration speed,
model with an attention time-series optimization, convergence accuracy, and training
mechanism efficiency of the forecasting model.
Giri and Chen Hyb Clustering, classification, Image data extracted using the CNN and classification models
(2022) and Deep learning based on NN was identified as the best-performing model.
He et al. (2022) Stat SIPD Search volume data of selected keywords incorporated in the
panel data-based model provided greater accuracy than the
panel data-based model.
Chen, Wang, Gao, Hyb GANN GA combined with NN to improve convergence speed and
and Tian (2022) prediction accuracy.
Yu and Lin (2022) Stat PD PD outperformed the ELM-based model in terms of the
evaluating criteria of prediction interval and forecasting
confidence level.

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Table A.2
Notation for different forecasting models used in different papers provided in Table A.1.
AI – Artificial Intelligence Method
ABC-PF – Artificial Bee Colony for
optimized polynomial fitting
AbM- Age-based Model
AD-ELM- Extreme Learning Machine with
Adaptive Metrics of inputs
ADI - Advance demand information
AHFCCX – Automatic Hybrid Forecasting
model with Corrective Coefficient of
explanatory variable influences
AHP - Analytic Hierarchy Process
ANN- Artificial Neural Network
ANFIS - Adaptive-network-based fuzzy
inference system
AR – Auto-regression
ARIMA - Autoregressive Integrated Moving
Average
ART- Auto-Regressive technology
BM - Bayesian Method
BPNN - Backpropagation neural network
BP – Bayesian Probability
Cl- Clustering
CNN – Convolutional Neural Network
CT- Classification Trees
DNN - Deep Neural Networks
DT- Decision Trees
EELM – Extended Extreme Learning
Machine
ELM – Extreme Learning Machine
ENN- Evolutionary Neural Network
ES- Exponential Smoothing
FIS - Fuzzy inference system
GANN- Genetic Algorithm Neural Network
GBM – Gradient Boosting Model
GM - Grey Model
Hyb – Hybrid Method Stat- Statistical Method Qual- Qualitative method
GNNM - Gray Neural Network Model NN MLP- Neural Network Multilayer
GRA-ELM - Perceptron
GRU – Gate Recurrent Unit PD – Panel data-based model
HF - Hierarchical forecasting PDPF - Panel data-based particle-filter
HS-ELM- Extreme learning machine and PLCB- Product-Lifecycle-based
harmony search algorithm PNN – Probabilistic Neural Network
HW- Holt-Winters method RB- Regression trees with bagging
HWS- Holt-Winters and Exponential RF – Random Forests
Smoothing RFS - Regression with forward selection
IDA - Items forecasting model based on RMSC – Rough Mean Shift Clustering
Distribution of Aggregated sales estimation RT – Regression Trees
IDAC - Items forecasting model based on SAMANN - Short-term forecasting model by
Distribution of Aggregated forecast and Adjustment of Mean-term forecast with an
Classification Artificial Neural Network
KM- K-means clustering SAMANFIS - Short-term forecasting model by
KM- ELM - K-means clustering with adjustment of mid-term forecast adaptive
Extreme Learning Machine neural fuzzy inference system
KM- SVR - K-means clustering with SARIMAX - Seasonal Auto-Regressive
Support Vector Regression Integrated Moving Average with exogenous
KNN – K factors
LR- Linear Regression SDGM – Seasonal discrete grey model
LSTM- Long Short-Term Memory SIMM - Seasonal indexes multiplicative
MA - Moving Averages model
MDL- NN – Minimum description length SIPD - Search Index-based Panel Data model
Neural Network SM – Statistical method
MLM- Multinomial Logit Model SMBF – Social media-based forecasting
MLP - Multilayer Perceptron SNN – Siamese Neural Network
MLR – AR - Multiple linear regression with SSES - Seasonal single exponential smoothing
autoregressive elements model
MS - Markov regime-switching SOM- Self-organizing Maps
MOONN – Multi-Objective SVM – Support Vector Machine
Optimization-based Neural Network Model SW- SARIMA method and wavelet transform
NCC - Neural clustering and classification TSF – Time series forecasting
NN- Neural Network VIBE - multi-VIew Bridge Estimation

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