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PDF Solution Manual For The Statistical Sleuth A Course in Methods of Data Analysis 3Rd Edition Fred Ramsey Daniel Schafer Online Ebook Full Chapter
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Chapter 10: Inferential Tools for Multiple Regression
10.10 Crab Claws. The F-statistic is 6.36, with 2 and 32 degrees of freedom. The p-value is 0.0047.
Using tables in the Appendix, you could look up the critical values for F with 2 and 30 degrees
of freedom and find that F2,30 99 = 5.39 < 6.36 < 8.77 = F2,30 999 and conclude that the p-value is
between .01 and .001.
10.11 Butterfly Occurrences.
a The two-sided p-value = .2443; the one-sided p-value is .2443/2 = .1222; yes. Failure to
account for sampling effort could lead to concluding there was a relationship between species
numbers and reserve size, when the full data would suggest that different effort may be a better
explanation.
b t-statistic = –8.1264 with 13 d.f. The p-value is < .0001.
c tl3 975 = 2.160; the interval is from –0.1634 to +0.3252.
d 100–11.41 = 88.59%
10.12 Brain Weights. Use log transformed variables. The (full) model with Ibody, Igest, and llitt
gives a residual SS = 20.7361 with d.f. = 92. The (reduced) model with only Ibody gives a
residual SS = 31.4112 with d.f. = 94. The F-statistic = 23.68 with 2 and 92 d.f., and its p-value
is <.0001.
10.13 Bat Echolocation.
b The slope estimate is 0.8150 for all three groups. The intercept estimates are: (i) –1.5764 for
non-echolocating bats; (ii) –1.4741 for birds; and (iii) –1.4977 for echolocating bats.
c The fit summary:
two-sided
Variable Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic p-Value
CONSTANT –1.4977 0.1499 –9.9934 <.0001
lmass 0.8150 0.0445 18.2966 <.0001
bird 0.0236 0.1576 0.1497 .8828
nbat –0.0787 0.2027 –0.3881 .7030
d Same as b.
e Two-sided p-value= .8828
10.14 Toxic Effects of Copper and Zinc. It is difficult to follow the order of magnitudes of the
coefficients and standard errors in this problem, because of the scales of copper and zinc. In the
following, copper is represented in units 100 ppm and zinc in units of 1,000 ppm. With protein
as the response, the fit summary is:
55
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two-sided
Variable Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic p-Value
CONSTANT 204.4970 12.3337 16.5803 <.0001
copper –9.6457 25.6549 –0.3760 .7111
zinc –53.5924 25.6549 –2.0890 .0504
copper2 –16.2540 15.2217 –1.0678 .2990
zinc2 –7.7206 15.2217 –0.5072 .6178
copper*zinc 27.3067 12.7354 2.1442 .0452
With log(protein) as the response, the fit summary looks like this:
two-sided
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Variable Coefficient Standard Error t-Statistic p-Value
CONSTANT 5.3208 0.0829 64.1716 <.0001
copper –0.0234 0.1725 –0.1357 .8935
zinc –0.2769 0.1725 –1.6053 .1249
copper2 –0.1228 0.1023 –1.2002 .2448
zinc2 –0.0938 0.1023 –0.9168 .3707
copper*zinc 0.1636 0.0856 1.9105 .0713
Here the log transform does nothing to improve the situation. The original scale is preferred.
10.15 Kentucky Derby. For the full model with Speed and Track, and reduced model with Speed, the
extra sum of squares is 20.464, the extra-sum-of-squares F-statistic is 17.234 on 7 and 108 d.f.,
and the p-value for effect of Track is less than 0.0001. (This answers the exercise question; a
better solution might also include Speed-squared in both the full and reduced models—but would
produce the same conclusion).
56
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b The square root of 280.879749 is 16.76; the square root of 0.0055984662 is 0.0748; and the
square root of 0.00000000445973 is 0.00006325.
c 468.15 punti
d 8.04 punti
e 15.83 punti
Total 4,337.936 23
b Anova table for regression of flowers on time indicator and light intensity treated as a
factor:
Total 4,337.936 23
c F= [(871.236–655.925)/(21–12)]/(655.925/12) = 0.437674
From a calculator with F-percentiles, the p-value is Pr[F9,12 > 0.437674] = .89. Thus, there
is no evidence of any inadequacy in the reduced model and therefore no evidence of lack-
of-fit.
57
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10.20
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and so on. Then the (matrix form of the) normal equations are: (X'X)B = X'Y
10.21
10.22
58
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10.23 a F-statistic = 8.166 on 2 and 17 d.f.; 0.01 > p-value > 0.001.
The slope difference cannot be eliminated (2-sided p-value = 0.0219); neither can the intercept
difference (2-sided p-value = 0.0055). The evidence supports the existence of both
differences.
b i) Yes: 2-sided p-value = 0.0032 from the estimate 2.095 with s.e. = 0.659. ii)
No: 2-sided p-value = 0.2914 from the estimate 0.707 with s.e. = 0.659. iii)
No: 2-sided p-value = 0.7302 from the estimate 0.311 with s.e. = 0.894. iv)
No: 2-sided p-value = 0.2618 from the estimate -1.754 with s.e. = 0.894.
[NB: These answers require rewriting the model using different reference levels.]
10.24 a F-statistic = 10.542 on 2 and 17 d.f.; p-value = .001. The remaining conclusions are similar, as
well.
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b i) Yes: 2-sided p-value = 0.0005 from the estimate 2.098 with s.e. = 0.548.
ii) No: 2-sided p-value = 0.1051 from the estimate 0.995 with s.e. = 0.597.
iii) No: 2-sided p-value = 0.4209 from the estimate 0.710 with s.e. = 0.872.
iv) No: 2-sided p-value = 0.1726 from the estimate -1.284 with s.e. = 0.922.
The results differ only slightly. This is preferable because it adjusts for possible differences in
variability.
10.25 Define site indicators: s2, s3, and s4, an irrigation indicator, irr and set N = nitrogen level.
a The full model is:
b (i) Compare the full model with the reduction having β5 = β11 = β17 = β23 (=β5 say) with an
extra-sum-of-squares F-test.
(ii) Test β5 = 0 in the reduced model from (i).
(iii) There is an intervening model with β2 = β8 = β14 = β20 (=β2, say). Then test β2 = 0.
DATA PROBLEMS
10.26 Thinning of Ozone Layer. A full model allows for different intercepts and slopes of
μ{inhibition | UVB} against UVB. The fit is
{inhibition | UVB}= 2.97 + 258.94UVB –1.47 deep+ 908.04 deep × UVB
(9.73) (309.61) (10.54) (381.54)
where deep is an indicator of deep water. A residual plot shows some tendency toward larger
spread at higher fitted values, but the pattern is not sufficiently prominent to require remedial
action.
In this problem it would make sense to have no inhibition with no UVB. A test shows that
the data are consistent with the hypothesis of zero intercepts for both regressions in deep water
and at the surface (p-value = .8924, from extra sum of squares F= 0.1149 with 2 and 13 d.f.).
Therefore, the final model and its fit become:
{inhibition | UVB} = 348.06 UVB + 952.54 deep × UVB
(96.28) (169.16)
That is, the slope of the line against UVB in surface water is 348.06, while the slope of the line
in deep water is 1,300.60. The difference in slopes is the key parameter. Its estimate is 952.54,
with a 95% confidence interval from 592.00 to 1,313.08. There is ample evidence of a
difference in slopes (two-sided p-value < .0001, from t-statistic = 5.63 with 15 d.f).
59
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10.27 Factors Affecting Extinction. First, notice that the data presented in Display 10.22 have had
1.0 added to 1/T, so as to facilitate exploration of a log transformation. The analysis begins by
fitting a full model in which the intercepts and slopes of the extinction times versus numbers of
pairs may be different in all four combinations of size and migratory status. The model is
where large and migrant are indicator variables. A residual plot from the fit of this model
shows two prominent features. First is a horn shape to the entire plot suggesting a
transformation. Second, Ravens appear to have very long times to extinction in
comparison with other birds with about the same number of pairs, size, and status.
The first problem is addressed by fitting the same model with log(time), sqrt(time),
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and 1/time as responses and examining their residual plots. The most appealing scale is the
logarithmic scale. In that scale, ravens are still extreme, but less so. Jackdaws also appear
somewhat extreme in the opposite direction. However, the conclusions reached by
excluding these two species are similar enough to those from the full data set that the two
should be included. (This primarily inflates the residual estimate of variation, which is the
price one pays for making the analysis apply to a slightly wider set of species.)
Separate scatter plots of log(time) versus pairs, for all four combinations of size and
migratory status, provide an informal assessment of whether the relationships are linear.
There appears to be no reason to consider a transformation of the pairs variable.
A test of equal slopes in all four combinations of size and migratory status reveals no
evidence of differences (p-value = .2891 from F-statistic = 1.2842 with 3 and 54 d.f.).
This reduces the scope of the model to one where there is the same slope but arbitrary
intercepts in the four groups. There is no evidence that the intercepts do not follow an
additive pattern, since the coefficient of the product of indicators has two-sided p-value =
.6321, based on its t-statistic = 0.4813 with 57 d.f. This brings the problem down to the
inferential model fit:
{log(time)} = 0.283 + 0.265pairs + 0.652large – 0.504migrant
(0.184) (0.037) (0.167) (0.183)
Size and migratory status have strong associations with time, after accounting for the
numbers of nesting pairs (p < .0001, from an extra sum of squares F = 11.88 with 2 and
58 d.f).
10.28 a There is convincing evidence that the hurricane storm index was associated with El Nino
temperature between 1950 and 1997, after accounting for the West African wetness (2-sided
p-value = .0003). It is estimated that the median storm index is reduced by 26% when the
El Nino temperature changes from cold to neutral or from neutral to warm (95%
confidence interval 14% to 36%). The El Nino effect explained 17% of the variation in the
distribution of storm index, after accounting for the West African effect. There was no
evidence of a time trend (2-sided p-value = .8 from the t-test for the coefficient of year in
the regression of log storm index on temperature, West African wetness, and year) nor
was there evidence that the association of El Nino temperature and storm index depended
on whether West Africa was wet or not (2-sided p-value = .6, from a t-test for the
coefficient of the product of the West Africa indicator variable and temperature, in the
model that included both main effects as explanatory variables.
60
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Atlantic Basic Hurricane Index versus El Nino Temperature
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b There is convincing evidence that the distribution of number of storms is associated with El
Nino temperature (2-sided p-value = .0001 from a t-test for the coefficient of temperature in
the regression of log of number of storms on temperature). It is estimated that the median
number of storms decreases by 21% as the El Nino temperature changes from cold to neutral
and from neutral to warm (95% confidence interval 12% to 29%). The El Nino temperature
explains 29% of the variation in the number of storms. There is no evidence that the
distribution of number of storms depends on West African wetness (2-sided p-value = .14) or
on year (2-sided p-value = .9).
c There is convincing evidence that the distribution of number of hurricanes is associated with
El Nino temperature, after accounting for West African wetness (2-sided p-value = .0004). It
61
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is estimated that the median number of hurricanes decreases by 22% as the El Nino
temperature changes from cold to neutral and from neutral to warm (95% confidence interval
11% to 31%). The El Nino temperature explains 20% of the variation in the number of
hurricanes. There is no evidence that the effect of El Nino on the distribution of number of
storms depends on West African wetness (2-sided p-value for interaction = .54) or on year
(2-sided p-value = .9).
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10.29 Wage and Race 1987. These data provide no evidence that the race effect on wages was
different in different regions of the country (p-value =.23, from an F-test for the interactive
effect of Region and Race in the linear regression of log wage on Exper, Educ, Region, Race,
and the interactio of Region and Race). They provide overwhelming evidence that weekly
wages tended to be higher for non-blacks than for blacks (1-sided p-value < 0.0001). The
median weekly wage for blacks, adjusted for education, experience and region of the country,
was estimated to be only 81% of the median for non-blacks (95% confidence interval: 79% to
83%).
10.30 Wages and Race 2011. These data provide moderate evidence that the racial difference in
median weekly earnings (adjusted for educational category, age, and metropolitan status) is
different in the four different regions (p-value = 0.02 for the interactive effect of race and
region). The data provide no evidence that the adjusted median is higher for white males than
for black males in the Midwest (1-sided p-value = 0.15) or the West (1-sided p-value = 0.13),
but convincing evidence that the adjusted median is higher for White males in the Northeast
(1-sided p-value < 0.0001) and the South (1-sided p-value < 0.0001). The following table shows
the estimated racial differences for each region:
62
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Estimate of Adjusted*
Sample Sample Median Weekly Earnings
Number of Number of Median of Median of for Black Males as a
White Black Weekly Weekly Percentage of that for
Males in Males in Earnings for Earnings for White Males (and 95%
Region Sample Sample White Males Black Males confidence interval)
Northeast 950 69 $1,000 $651 70% (61% to 81% )
Midwest 1,190 71 $859 $807 93% (81% to 107%)
South 1,333 230 $865 $647 84% (77% to 91% )
West 1,072 37 $900 $731 90% (74% to 108%)
*adjusted for educational level, age, and whether or not the individual lived in a metropolitan area.
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a The data provide convincing evidence that the relationships between Clutch Volume and
Body Mass differ among the five groups other than Manipatorian Dinosaurs (Mani) (p-value <
0.0001 from the comparison of a full model for the regression of log Clutch Volume on
logBody Mass, Group and their interaction to a reduced model with only log Body Mass,
ignoring the species from the Mani group). If there were no evidence of a difference a
conclusión about the group that most closely matches Mani would be less impactful, but the
comparison could still be carried out.
b The evidence for regression lines that differ from that of the Mani species is tabled below:
Group p-value for different relationship
BiP 0.0001
Croc 0.01
Mat 0.05
Othr 0.001
Pat 0.41
The modern paternal care birds (Pat), therefore, are the group of species with the least evidence
of a difference with Manipatorian dinosaurs.
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c As evident in the scatterplot above, the small number of Manipatorian dinosaur (Mani)
species (n = 3) and the small range of Body Masses among these species make us question our
ability to adequately model the relationship between Clutch Volume and Body Mass for
Manipatorian dinosaur species and therefore to compare it to the relationship in other species.
d Presumably, the researchers did not obtain random samples of species in each group. One
might wonder, for example, whether the selected species of modern birds represents all species
of modern birds.
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c Predicted height: 65.1 inches (95% prediction interval: 60.9 to 69.4 inches)
10.33 IQ Score and Income. The data provide convincing evidence that Arith, Word, Parag, and
Math add valuable predictive information beyond what is available in the AFQT percentile for
predicting income (p-value < 0.0001 from a comparison of the full model regression of log
2006 income on AFQT, Arith, Word, Parag, and Math to the reduced model with only AFQT).
Furthermore, there is no evidence that AFQT is a useful predictor in addition to the four
component test scores (p-value = 0.8). Furthermore, it appears that Arith and Math are all that is
needed; there is no evidence that Word and Parag add additional predictive usefulness (p-value
= 0.6 from a comparison of the full model regression of log 2006 income on Arith, Word,
Parag, and Math to the reduced model with only Arith and Math).
64
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mystère du sien, mais nous eûmes bientôt la clef de l’énigme. A nos
complets taillés et vendus dans Cheapside, elles nous prenaient
pour des sujets de la reine Victoria, qui, comme l’on sait, raffolent
des primeurs.
Ce fut sous ce double et juvénile pilotage qu’après force tours et
détours dans des ruelles d’un quartier inconnu et malpropre, pavé de
cailloux dangereux et pointus, nous arrivâmes sans encombre au
port.