Notes from Dormer on Deduction by Albert Dormer

In a suit contract, if W leads low to E's King, E also has the Ace,( W did not underlead A)
If the return of the Ace by E, would cause you to ruff with one of your 2 cards in dummy,
so that later, you will be unable to return a low trump from dummy to finesse your Jack
Trumps in hand, then E does not hold Qxx and you should assume Q Trumps is with W.

If the opening lead against a slam could be a singleton, the opening leader does not have
any missing Ace, as he hopes his partner will win it and return the suit for a ruff.

Whatever the opening lead, try to work out the position of the high cards in the suit led.
Remember a defender will win with the cheaper of their adjacent cards, e.g. Q holding KQ.

An opening leader will not lead low holding adjacent honours in his hand.

When the opening lead is 4th best, the rule of 11 may help.

When W leads low to E's Jack and you are missing 6 cards in the suit, assume W does not
have KQ xx or he would not lead low, and assume E does not have KJ as he would play
the K. Missing KQJ, W obviously has 1+ of these and E has 1+. W does not have KQ and
E does not have KJ, so most likely is E having QJ.( A 4-2 break is the most likely)

A responder who passes his partners opening bid does not hold 6 points.

If a defender leads a trump, you can infer he does not want to lead away from high cards
in a suit. A top of nothing lead gives you information too.

In many deals the question is “who do I play for a key ace?”. When the defenders do not
lead the suit they have bid (or the only unbid suit) and the opening leader holds the
weaker hand of the pair, the inference is that he has the ace. It is unlikely that he has a
sound independent lead of his own, so he is trying not to lead his unsupported Ace.

Consider whether the opening leader was constrained in his lead. What suit could he not
lead if he held Z in it?

The bidder of a preempt often has a 7321 pattern- more common than 7222 He may lead
the singleton- unless he has a singleton trump which he will not lead.

A defender who leads a 2 in NT has 4 cards in that suit. If he later shows a singleton, it is
unlikely he had a 5-card suit and didn't lead it so his shape is 4441. In the middle game,
when a defender shows out, review the opening lead.

The opening lead from a competent defender is not an isolated move but part of an overall
plan and you should try to deduce what it is: active, passive, forcing, entry-killing or ruffing.

When a defender with a trump entry does not play for a ruff, try to work out the reason.

Against silent opponents, place any missing points with the partner who has shown up with
fewer, even when in theory his partner could hold those points. When opponents have not
entered the auction, despite having a reasonable share of high cards, expect suits to break
evenly.
If an overcaller has values outside his suit they are likely to be independent winners such
as Aces and Kings rather than scattered values such as Queens and jacks. Be more
inclined to place an overcaller with a missing Ace or King.

When opponents contest but drop out early, expect favourable breaks. When they
compete vigourously, expect the opposite. They drop out to avoid pushing you into game.

During the auction tell opponents as little as possible about your hand. During the play,
reflect on what you have told them.

When defenders could have won the previous trick in either hand, try to work out why they
chose one or other.

Because defenders can be expected to make the most of their trumps you can sometimes
work out where the high trump is. Say East wins 2 top diamonds then switches to a low
spade trump, (dummy has JT4 spades) you can assume East has the missing Q trump, as
to continue diamonds so as to give west a high ruff would be normal if East thought West
had Queen spades.

When you can see that a defender has made a mistake, try to deduce from what holding
he might most easily have done so.

Deductions from defenders discards: A defender with length in dummy's suit will most
likely retain length with dummy to prevent dummy's last card being established. So if a
defender discards the suit, he may have 5 cards to dummy's 4 and so could afford 1, or
with fewer than 4, he might have had an easier discard in another suit.

Deductions when tenace holdings are present: When a tenace is visible in dummy,
defenders' discards are likely to be revealing. Most defenders make the easy discards
first, throwing low from a poor suit. It is natural to avoid unguarding an honour card. So
assume the defenders have not discarded in a way that presents dummy with tricks.

Consider whether a defender knows how many discards he will have to make – if he
knows then don't attach significance to the order in which he discards them.

Deductions by the Defenders: When no clear line of defence can be seen, tend to do
the opposite of what you think declarer expects. When declarer does not cash an isolated
winner in dummy, assume that he has a re-entry.