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Esia Unit 2 Unit2 Notes
Esia Unit 2 Unit2 Notes
i. Screening
ii. Scoping
iii. Prediction and mitigation
iv. Management and monitoring
v. Audit
The next stage in EIA is determining which issues should be examined in the EIA, this
activity is often termed "scoping".
In reality screening and scoping activities overlap, in that some methods not only provide
a screening function, but also allow the identification of issues which require detailed
examination.
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In addition, methods developed to assist the identification of potential impacts (eg impact
matrices) may also be employed in impact assessment activities.
SCREENING
The first stage of EIA is screening, to identify whether or not a project needs an
Environmental Impact Assessment.
For large projects – defined by project type and scale – EIA is always needed. For
smaller projects where the need for EIA is not automatically triggered, developers can
either request a formal Screening Opinion from the local planning authority or can make
the decision to carry out an EIA themselves,
SCOPING
Scoping occurs early in the project cycle at the same time as outline planning and pre
feasibility studies.
Scoping is the process of identifying the key environmental issues and is perhaps the
most important step in an EIA.
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Several groups, particularly decision makers, the local population and the scientific
community, have an interest in helping to deliberate the issues which should be
considered, and scoping is designed to canvass their views, (Wathern 1988).
First, so that problems can be pinpointed early allowing mitigating design changes to be
made before expensive detailed work is carried out.
Second, to ensure that detailed prediction work is only carried out for important issues.
It is not the purpose of an EIA to carry out exhaustive studies on all environmental
impacts for all projects.
If key issues are identified and a full scale EIA considered necessary then the scoping
should include terms of reference for these further studies.
At this stage the option exists for cancelling or drastically revising the project should
major environmental problems be identified.
Equally it may be the end of the EIA process should the impacts be found to be
insignificant. Once this stage has passed, the opportunity for major changes to the project
is restricted. Before the scoping exercise can be fully started, the remit of the study needs
to be defined and agreed by the relevant parties. These will vary depending on the
institutional structure. At a minimum, those who should contribute to determining the
remit will include those who decide whether a policy or project is implemented, those
carrying out the EIA (or responsible for having it carried out by others) and those
carrying out parallel engineering and economic studies relating to the proposal.
People who are affected by the project need to hear about it as soon as possible. Their
knowledge and perspectives may have a major bearing on the focus of the EIA.
Rapid rural appraisal techniques provide a means of assessing the needs and views of the
affected population.
The main EIA techniques used in scoping are baseline studies, checklists, matrices and
network diagrams.
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Risk and uncertainty are discussed further in the section Managing uncertainty. The key
benefits of scoping include:
1.Early stakeholder identification and engagement;
2. A focused assessment on key, likely significant impacts;
3. Justification for the exclusion of inappropriate issues;
4. Early identification of existing data and data gaps; and
5. Early identification of the need for field surveys so that they can be accommodated
in the project programme.
Determining study requirements there are no universal formats for terms of reference
which will be suitable for every study. However, there are general rules which should be
observed when preparing TOR for the EIA of irrigation and drainage proposals. The
study should ensure that the consultants focus on the major issues and the most serious
likely impacts. The opportunities for enhancing any positive benefits from the project
should also be highlighted. The study should identify the relevant natural resources, the
eco-system and the population likely to be affected. Direct and indirect impacts must be
identified and any particularly vulnerable groups or species highlighted. In some
instances views will be subjective and the consultants should give an indication of the
degree of risk or confidence and the assumptions on which conclusions have been drawn.
In most cases the output required will be a report examining the existing environment, the
impacts of the proposed project on the environment and the affects of the environment on
the project, both positive and negative, the mitigating measures to be taken and any
actions needed. Interim reports, for example of baseline studies, should be phased to be
of maximum value to parallel technical and economic studies. The timing of the study is
important.
Scoping prior to a full EIA will enable the major issues to be identified. The terms of
reference for the full EIA can then be better focused.
The study should be carried out early enough in the project cycle to enable
recommendations to be incorporated into the project design.
The requirements stated in the TOR will determine the length of time needed for the
study, the geographical boundary of the EIA, its cost and the type of expertise required.
Baseline data collection, if needed, can be time consuming and will have a major impact
on the cost and time needed for the study.
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If considerable data exists, for example a good record of water quality information and
hydrological statistics, the EIA may be possible without further primary data collection.
If data are scarce, time must be allowed for field measurement and analysis.
Is the study for an environmental scoping, a full EIA or other type of study? Before
preparing the TOR the purpose must be clear.
Is the study to be for a site specific project or a regional or sectoral programme? The
breadth of the study needs to be well defined
Will the EIA team be required to collect baseline data or does this already exist? The
depth of the study and the type and quality of information already available or needed
must be known.
Who will use the final report? Different end users will often require different information.
Readers may not be technical experts and careful thought should be given to the
presentation of complex information.
What output is required from the EIA study? Is an Environmental Action Plan to be
prepared? A draft contents page for the final report as an annex to the TOR will give
some guidance to the team carrying out the study.
Is the team responsible for all issues or are other organizations (universities, government
departments) responsible for some environmental studies?
The TOR should clearly delimit responsibilities and give information on other work
being done. If it is a requirement that the team liaise or work with other organizations,
including NGOs, then this should be stated. Unabridged versions of the sub-contracted
studies should be made available to the appraising authority for reference.
What type of experts are needed in the team and for how long? An approximate estimate
is needed to prepare a budget for the study and to estimate the time period. However, the
TOR should not be too rigid on the number and type of expertise to be provided as there
should be some flexibility for the team to decide on the most appropriate methodology
and additional staffing.
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The finalized list of this stage of EIA is submitted to the Ministry in the form of
TOR.
TOR is an important document in the process of EIA because it sets the guidelines for the
study. A TOR is drawn up with the following questions in mind.
1. The purpose of the study/project.
2. The extent of the study.
3. The stakeholders’ requirements; each stakeholder looks at different aspects of the
project differently. Complex information needs to be explained appropriately.
Content of TOR highlights the points that need to be covered (the TOR itself does not
elaborate on these points unless required) during the EIA study, which include:
1. A description of the project, it’s purposes and extent.
2. All the agencies responsible in the developmental project and the EIA study.
10. The legal requirements of the project and future legislation that need to be drafted.
11. If the project site comes under special categories, and the legislation regarding the
same.
TORs take about 45 days to prepare in today’s EIA studies. Under the Ministry of
Environment, Forests and Climate Change guidelines, reference TORs for the most
common developmental projects have been drawn up in the ministry website. This
reference document lists out the most important aspects and impacts of large, common
developmental projects.
This eases the burden on the EIA committees working to conduct EIA of large projects.
They take most of the information to be mentioned in the TOR from this reference. All
that is included from their side are site specific issues that arise for each individual
project; for example, the presence of a unique ecosystem in the area (mangroves etc),
presence of protected areas in the project vicinity, etc.
Determination of baseline data using primary data generation and secondary data
available from various government published reports on air, meteorology, water, soil,
flora & fauna, socio-economics, infrastructure, sensitive areas (forests, archaeological,
historical etc);
Detailed description of all elements of the project activities during the construction and
operational phases. The elements to be analyzed will include the infrastructures of the
project including drainage features, roads, waste collection, disposal and management
and utility requirements; Identifying the sources of pollution and assessing the impacts on
the environment due to proposed project;
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Quantification of solid wastes and likely disposal methods will be suggested. Sources of
Pollution
The likely sources of air and water pollution will be identified and quantified;
The proposed pollution control measures envisaged in project area for fugitive dust, noise
pollution and other environmental effects of each project activities will be assessed for
their adequacy;
The present and proposed changes in land use pattern will be identified; and
Suitable green belt development plan will be prepared. Based on various project
activities, the likely impact on the environment attributes in project area will be identified
by:
Estimating the air pollution levels for PM, SO2 and NOx in the study area during
construction and operational activities;
Predicting the noise dispersions for all the noise generating sources;
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The parameters likely to be affected are air quality, water quality, soil quality and noise
levels etc on account of gaseous emissions, liquid effluent discharges, resultant
particulates, generation of solid wastes etc will be discussed.
The baseline data generated from the above studies will be analyzed and will be
compared with applicable standards prescribed by the CPCB. By this means, the impact
whether positive or negative will be assessed and the environmental attributes requiring
special attention for mitigating the negative impact, if any, will be identified.
Also the areas, which ful fil the prescribed environmental norms and not requiring further
improvements, will be specified. Both short-term and long term impacts particularly on
sensitive targets such as habitat of endangered species of wildlife or mines, crops,
historically / culturally important sites / monuments, centres with concentrated population
in the study area will be established.
Impact of the stack emissions on terrestrial flora will be scientifically documented based
upon species composition of the area and their air pollution tolerance levels.
The impacts of project on various components of environment and the possible mitigation
measures for mitigating the negative impacts were described in the following sections.
Impact Assessment
The land use impacts due to proposed project will be identified in terms of local land use
planning efforts. The change in land use pattern of project site will also be identified.
This includes visual impact, impact on forest, impact due to industrial growth and growth
due to socio-economic factors.
Mitigation Measures
The mitigation measures will be addressed towards restoration of land disturbed by
the proposed project activities to the extent possible.
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Mitigation Measures
Considering the dependence of the people in the area on surface or ground water as
sources for drinking purposes, the prevailing quality and extent of contamination due to
the proposed project activities, the mitigation measures will include and the treatment
required for meeting the effluent discharge standards specified under the Environment
Protection Rules and SPCB will be addressed.
Impact Assessment On the basis of the compiled information and the proposed
employment and other benefits to the people of the study area as well as others, the likely
socio-economic impacts of proposed project in post project scenarios for demography,
facilities and services, agricultural sector, civic infrastructure and basic amenities,
industrial sector, economic status and health status of people, etc will be assessed.
Mitigation Measures
Strategies to mitigate the negative impacts of the project will be developed for areas
where negative impacts are projected to occur.
The potential actions considered will include both policy and planning actions. The roles
of different bodies in mitigation measures will be identified.
Details on solid wastes from the proposed activity will be estimated. Impact assessment
of disposal Impact Assessment
The impacts of the proposed project due to water usage and wastewater discharges will
be of solid waste will be addressed to the effect on human settlement, vegetation, ground
water contamination etc.
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mitigation measures will be proposed which will avoid, minimize or compensate for
significant adverse impact on soil characteristics. Impact on Ambient air Quality Impact
Assessment
The results will be presented for short-term (24-hourly) concentrations in and around the
project site.
The dispersion model results will be included in the report using isopleths or other
graphical methods, over laying a land use map of the surrounding area.
The predicted air quality results will be compared with existing regulations. Mitigation
Measures Potential mitigation measures include the control measures at the source level
and providing adequate stack heights.
The measures to control the fugitive dust emissions such green belt development and
sprinkling will be suggested.
Impact on Noise Impact Assessment Sources of noise and its impact on the environment
will be addressed.
The noise level at varying distances for multi-sources will be predicted using Noise
model. A comparison of measured noise (Leq ) at monitoring locations to that of
predicted noise levels (Leq ) will be made and mitigatory measures will be recommended
to conform to regulatory ambient air noise standards.
Baseline noise levels in different zones like industrial, residential and sensitive areas like
addressed covering the following:
Groundwater quality degradation due to likely solid waste disposal and wastewater
disposal; o Agricultural productivity;
The mitigation measures will be addressed ensuring the present and anticipated future
water requirements for various purposes.
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The measures also address the need to maintain or improve the existing Class of Water
(as per IS: 2296) to ensure that the current / proposed uses are not impaired due to
deterioration of the water quality.
Mitigation Measures
The potential mitigation measures will be addressed to reduce noise levels by control
at source, provision of greenery to absorb noise during its propagation, isolation of
high noise generating sources, use of protective measures especially in high noise
areas.
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● Determining the bird population of migratory and local birds by taking 10 random
readings at every Location;
● Observing mammals, amphibians and reptiles, noting their calls, droppings,
burrows, pugmarks and other signs
The forests of the tract are well scattered on both the banks of river Beas. Scrub forests,
Bamboo forests, Chil forests, Scrub mixed with chil, sal and other Broad Leaved forests
are present which occur due to altitude, edaphic and biotic factors. Kangra forest consist
various type of vegetation and faunal biodiversity Flora
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The visual observations of plants were recorded with a view to obtaining some idea about
the relative density of certain species and their predominance. Project influence area have
several floral species have been reported with some prominent tree species are Cassia
fistula, Ficus bengalenses, Aegle marmelos, Phoenix sylvestris, Mangifera indica,
Azadaricta indica, Dalbergia sisso, Calotropis procera, Terminalica arjuna.
The information of important terrestrial animal groups such as birds, reptiles and
mammals were collected by trekking inhabiting areas, along the road, nearby village
areas and agricultural fields present in the impact zone.
An inventory of the animals has been prepared separately for mammals, reptiles and
birds. The faunal species are reported as Common Emmigrant, Pioneer, Monitor Lizard,
Common myna, Gray Partridges, Indian Treepie, Parakeet, Jungle Crow, House Crow,
Rock Pigeon, Green Bee eater, Red Watlled lopwing, Wood pecker and Indian hare.
In case of mining projects, impacts on biodiversity, air pollution, water pollution, waste
management and social issues are significant.
Both direct and indirect environmental impacts will be created on various environmental
attributes due to proposed mining activity in the surrounding environment, during the
operational phase.
In cases where it is not possible to identify and validate a model for a particular situation,
predictions have been arrived at based on logical reasoning/consultation/extrapolation
Anticipated or Predicted Impact on Flora
The proposed project of river bed sand, bajri, boulder mining shall be carried out on the
Sohan Khad, which does not have any trees. Hence, no tree cutting is involved
The project shall also not lead to any change in landuse and will be replenished every
year after successive rain.
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The project seeks permission to carry out the mining activity, which though is an
economically gainful activity, but also constitutes river training work. It allows for
necessary dredging activity which otherwise leads to flooding of nearby banks
With the proposed riverbed mining activity, as the river bed deepens, the banks will
eventually be available for secondary succession of vegetation.
There shall be negligible air emissions or effluents from the project site. During loading
the truck, dust generation will be likely. This shall be a temporary effect and not
anticipated to affect the surrounding vegetation significantly. Anticipated or Predicted
Impact on Fauna
Animals are sensitive to noise and avoid human territory. The animals accessing the river
at the project stretch are likely to shift upstream or downstream of the stretch during the
mining activities.
There will be no impact on aquatic environment due to mining because the river dries up
considerably and is reduced to no flow during lean season. Water flows only in rainy
season through Sohan Khad Bed. No fishes are reported in the study stretch of the river
Hence, no significant impact on the fauna is anticipated from the proposed project.
Mitigation Measures Flora Although the project will not lead to any tree cutting, it is
proposed to improve the greenery of the locality by plantation services.
To avoid dust emissions, the mined materials will be covered with tarpaulin during
transportation.
Fauna the workers shall be directed to not venture out of the leased area for collecting
fuel wood, or hunting. They shall also be trained to not harm any wildlife, should it come
near the project site. No work shall be carried out after 6.00 pm.
MATRICES METHOD
The other dimension is a list of actions associated with development. These relate to both
the construction and operational phases. Making cells representing a likely impact
resulting from the interaction of a facet of the development with an environmental feature
identifies impacts.
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Simple matrices, though able to identify first order effects, cannot show higher interactive
effects between impacts. The purpose of a matrix is to help the project planner to
Provide means of comparing the predicted environmental impacts of the various project
options available
Potentially significant adverse environmental impact for which a design solution has been
identified
Adverse environmental impact that is potentially significant but about which insufficient
information has been obtained to make a reliable prediction
Interaction-Matrix Methodologies
In the interaction matrix method project actions or activities will be displayed along one
axis with appropriate environmental factors listed along the other axis of the matrix.
The magnitude of separate or combined effects and their importance considerations will
also be considered.
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In this method approximately 100 specified actions and 90 environmental items can be
examined. It presents the list of the actions and environmental items.
In the uses of the Leopold matrix, each action and its potential for creating an impact on
each environmental item will be considered.
Where an impact is anticipated, the matrix is marked with a diagonal line in the
appropriate interaction box.
The temporal phases and specific actions associated with the proposed project: and the
impact rating or summarization scales used in the matrix.
A matrix should be considered a tool for purposes of analysis, with the key need being to
clearly state the rationale utilized for the impact ratings assigned to a given temporal
phase and project action, and a given spatial boundary and environmental factor.
Interaction matrices can be useful for delineating the impacts of the first and second or
multiple phases of a two-phase or multiphase project; the cumulative impacts of a
project when considered relative to the other past, present; and reasonably foreseeable
future actions in the area; and the potential positive effects of mitigation measures.
Impact qualification and comparisons to relevant standards can provide a valuable basis
for the assignment of impact ratings to different project actions and environmental
factors.
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Color codes can be used to display and communicate information on anticipated impacts.
For example, beneficial impacts could be shown by using green or shade of green;
whereas, adverse effects could be depicted with red or shades of red. Impact matrices
can be used without the incorporation of number, letter, or color ratings. For example,
circles of varying size could be used to denote ranges of impacts.
One of the concerns relative to interaction matrices is that project actions and/ or
environmental factors are artificially separated, when they should be considered
together. It is possible to use footnotes in matrix to identify groups of actions, factors,
and/or impacts which should be considered together. This would allow the delineation of
primary and secondary effects of projects.
The development of a preliminary interaction matrix does not mean that it would have to
be included in a subsequent EA or EIS. The preliminary matrix could be used as an
internal working tool in study, planning and development.
.It is possible to utilize importance weighting for environmental factors and project
actions in a simple interaction matrix. If this approach is chosen, it is necessary to
carefully delineate the rationale upon which differential importance weights have been
assigned. Composite indices could be developed for various alternatives by summing up
the products of the importance weights and the impact ratings.
Usage of an interaction matrix forces the consideration of actions and impacts related to a
proposed project within the context of other related actions and impacts. In other words,
the matrix will prevent overriding attention being given to one particular action of
environmental factors.
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NETWORKS METHOD
Networks are capable of identifying direct and indirect impacts, higher order effects and
interactions between impacts, and hence are able to identify and incorporate mitigation
and management measures into the planning stages of a project.
They are suitable for expressing ecological impacts but of lesser utility in considering
social, human and aesthetic aspects. This is because weightings and ratings of impacts are
not features of network analysis.
Development of network diagrams present the potential impact pathways as casual chains
will be very useful for displaying first ,secondary, tertiary and higher order impacts.
To develop a network a series of questions related to each project activity (such as what
are the primary impact areas, the primary impacts within these areas, the secondary
impact areas, and the secondary impacts within these areas and so on) must be answered.
In developing network diagrams the first step is to identify the first order changes in
environmental components.
The secondary changes in other environmental components that will result from first
order changes will be then identified. In turn third order changes resulting from
secondary changes will be then identified.
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This process will be continued until the network diagram is completed to the experts'
satisfaction.
Network analyses are particularly useful for understanding the relationship between
environmental components that produce higher order impacts, which are often
overlooked in some major projects.
Networks can also aid in organizing the discussion of anticipated project impacts.
The primary limitation of the network approach is the minimal information provided on
the technical aspects of impact prediction and the means for comparatively evaluating the
impacts of alternatives.
Temporal considerations are not properly accounted for and short term and long term
impacts are not differentiated to the extent required for an easy understanding.
While networks can incorporate several alternatives into their format, the display
becomes very large and hence unwieldy when large regional plans are being considered.
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CHECKLIST METHODOLOGIES
Checklists in general are strong in impact identification and are capable of bringing them
to the attention and awareness of their audiences.
Impact identification is the most fundamental function of an EIA and in this respect, all
types of checklists, namely simple, descriptive, scaling and weighting checklists do
equally well.
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Checklists are of four broad categories and represent one of the basic methodologies
listed in EIA. They are:
(a) Simple Checklists: that are a list of parameters without guidelines provided on
how to interpret and measure an environmental parameter.
Scaling and weighting inherent in the latter types of checklists facilitates decision
making.
Such checklists. Apart from being strong in impact identification. also incorporate the
functions of impact measurement and to a certain degree of interpretation and evaluation,
and it is those aspects that make them more amenable to decision- making analysis.
But the impact of scaling and weighting is. nevertheless, subjective and this poses the
danger that society holds all diverse impacts to be equally important.
Scaling and weighting checklists, while capable of quantifying impacts reasonably well,
albeit using subjective estimates. Make no provision for assessing dynamic probabilistic
trends or for mitigation, enhancement and monitoring programmes. Identification of
higher order effects, impacts and interactions are outside their scope.
They merely identify the possible potential impacts without any sort of rating as to their
relative magnitudes.
Methods that involve scaling and weighting and the consequent aggregation remove
decision making from the hands of decision makers.
Further they incorporate into one number various intrinsically different impacts and this
deprives the decision maker of the possibility of tradeoffs. In check lists methods impacts
will be tabulated in the form of cells with information either in the descriptive form
which give information of the possibility or potential existence of an impact while in the
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Descriptive Checklists
For example, Carstea developed a descriptive checklist approach for projects in coastal
areas. The methodology addresses the following issues. actions. and projects: riprap
placement. bulkheads; groins and jetties; piers. dolphins, mooring piles. and ramp
construction; dredging (new and maintenance); outfalls, submerged lines. and pipes; and
aerial crossings.
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For each of the items, environmental impact information was provided on potential
changes in erosion, sedimentation. and deposition; flood heights and drift; water quality;
ecology; air quality; noise; safety and navigation; recreation; aesthetics; and socio-
economics.
Several descriptive checklists have been developed for water resources projects.
For example, Canter and Hill suggested a list of about 65 environmental factors related to
the environmental quality account used for project evaluation in the United States.
For each factor. information is included on its definition and measurement, prediction of
impacts, and functional curves for data interpretation (where one was available or easily
developed).
A portion of a descriptive checklist containing several factors for housing and other land
development projects are shown below. The basis for estimates column presents a
simplified, brief listing of key data models needed, if any. for the factor.
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Scaling Checklists
Simple and descriptive checklists in general are strong in impact identification and are
capable of bringing them to the attention and awareness of their audiences.
Impact identification is the most fundamental function of an EIA and in this respect, all
types of checklists are simple.
Descriptive scaling and weighting checklists do well. But simple and descriptive
checklists offer no more than this.
They merely identify the possible potential impacts without any sort of rating as to their
relative magnitudes.
The Oregon Scaling Check- list methods go a step further and provide an idea of the
nature of the impact by means of assigning a textual rating of the impact as long- term.
direct. and so on.
Nevertheless this approach is not suitable for impact measurement and does not aid much
in the decision making process. Rather it identifies the impacts and leaves the
interpretation to the decision makers.
The element of scaling and weighting that is inherent in the latter types of checklists
makes it easier for decision - making.
Such checklists, apart from being strong in impact identification, also incorporate the
functions of impact measurement and to a certain degree those of interpretation and
evaluation and it is these aspects that make them more amenable for decision - making
analysis.
While capable of quantifying impacts reasonably well. albeit using subjective estimates,
make no provision for assessing dynamic probabilistic trends or for mitigation.
enhancement and monitoring programmes.
Identification of higher order effects, impacts and interactions are outside their scope.
Methods that involve scaling and weighting and the consequent aggregation remove
decision-making from the hands of decision-makers.
Further they incorporate into one number various intrinsically different impacts and this
deprives the decision - maker of the possibility of trade-offs.
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4. The interval scale (0-0.1) for each environmental factor has to be fixed and the data
is converted into an environmental factor index by normalizing the scale over
maximum and minimum values and determining weight of each environmental factor.
5. Establish the method of aggregation across all the factors established.
The following example where two factors (Wildlife habitat in hectares and employment
increase in jobs) for two alternatives are considered will explain how the scaling
weighing method can be applied. In this example the environmental factor data has been
scaled to an index (0 is worst and I is best) Scaling was done by dividing the factor data
by maximum values for both alternatives.
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MATHEMATICAL MODELS
Such models are based on cause-effect relationships usually expressed in the form of
mathematical functions. They may be simple input-output models or of complex dynamic
types. Such models are primarily used for predicting the impact only partially (e.g.,
model for phosphorus retention in a lake, or model to predict the economic multiplier in a
particular area).
Models which are comprehensive and provide a holistic approach are often rare, except in
some cases of land-use planning.
Mathematical models are divided into two types. ·
Deterministic models are usually derived through fixed relationships. They are more
commonly used in socioeconomic impact prediction. For example, the economic
multiplier in a project where injection of money in the project area takes place and the
impact on the economy of the project area is examined, and
The stochastic model is a probabilistic type in which the prediction depends upon the
degree of probability of occurrence of a number of events in a given area and time.
Many problems arise in the evaluation of environmental impacts due to new projects;
The need to inform the project proponent and regulatory agencies at every step of the
evaluation process, and to present the best assessments possible for a variety of
alternatives,
The necessity to provide understandable information to the public. These problems are
emphasised by the presence of many specialists of different disciplines who have to find
a common language to integrate their experiences towards the same aim: the prediction of
the impacts of a new project.
The study was divided into two parts: abiotic and biotic models.
Biotic models take into account the biological aspects which have been used for impact
assess- mentsc
The work is based primarily on visits to groups that are active in using modelling (or
creating models) and simulation for impact assessment, and on literature surveys.
Mathematical models are based on the fundamental concepts of physical systems. A
physical system is described by a few measurable variables and well-defined boundaries.
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A simple algebraic mode, known as a black box, can represent the response of a system
for very specific applications.
If the model is to be used in a wide spectrum of different situations, it has to rely as much
as possible on principles of physical systems (conservation principles of mass, energy
and momentum).
Most of the time due to numerous factors (computatiorial limits, unknown parameters,
complexity of the formulation,), mathematical models are simplified, taking into account
only some of the fundamental equations. So, in air pollution, even in the case of wind
field modeling, the principle of conservation alone is taken into account. In water
modelling, equations of mass and momentum are currently used simplifying assumptions
being made on spatial representation.
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A system can be thought of as a collection of one or more related objects where an object
can be a physical entity with specific attributes or characteristics.
A system is characterized by the fact that the modeler can define its boundaries, its
attributes, and its interactions with the surroundings to the extent that the resulting model
can satisfy the modeler‘s goals.
Often, the larger the system, the more complex the model.
A system is called a closed system when it does not interact with the surroundings, if
interacts with the surroundings, it is called an open system. In closed systems, neither
mass nor energy will cross the boundary in contrast with open systems.
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The attributes of the system and of the surroundings that have significant impact on the
system are termed variables.
The term variable includes those attributes that change in value during the modeling time
span and those that remain constant during that period.
Variables of the latter type are often referred to as parameters. Variables that change in
value fall into two categories: those that are generated by the surroundings and influence
the behavior of the system, and those that are generated by the system and impact the
surroundings.
The former are called inputs‖ and the latter are called outputs.
In mathematical language, inputs are considered independent variables, and outputs are
considered dependent variables.
However, in mathematical models, all inputs and parameters are readily available for
control or manipulation, and all outputs are accessible.
In broad sense, the goals and objectives of modeling can be twofold: research oriented or
management-oriented.
To manage
To design methods
To improve or modify it
Practitioners, educators, researchers, and regulators from all professions ranging from
business to management to engineering to science use models of some form or another in
their respective professions.
Most common modeling approaches in the environmental area can be classified into many
basic types:
Physical modeling,
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Empirical modeling,
Mathematical modeling,
The resulting model can be calibrated using historical data from the real system and can
be validated using additional data. Predictions can then be made with predefined
confidence. In contrast to empirical models, mathematical models reflect how changes in
system performance are related to changes in inputs.
The emergence of mathematical techniques to model real systems has alleviated many of
the limitations of physical and empirical modeling.
Mathematical modeling, in essence, involves the transformation of the system under study from
its natural environment to mathematical environment in terms of abstract symbols and equations.
The symbols have well-defined meanings and can be manipulated following a rigid set of
rules or ―mathematical calculi.
Theoretical concepts and process fundamentals are used to derive the equations that
establish relationships between the system variables.
By feeding known system variables as inputs, these equations or ―models‖ can be solved
to determine a desired, unknown result.
In the pre computer era, mathematical modeling could be applied to model only those
problems with closed form solutions: application to complex and dynamic systems was
not feasible due to lack of computational tools.
Currently, several different types of software authoring tools are commercially available
for mathematical model building. They are rich in with built in features such as a library
of preprogrammed mathematical functions and procedures, user-friendly interfaces for
data entry and running, post –processing of results such as plotting and animation, and
high degrees of interactivity.
Mathematical models can be classified into various types depending on the nature of the
variables, the mathematical approach used, and the behavior of the system as follows:
1. Deterministic vs. Probabilistic; depending on certainty.
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Deterministic models are built of algebraic and differential equations, while probabilistic
models include statistical features.
In static models, the results are obtained by a single computation of all equations while in
dynamic models are obtained by repetitive computation of all equations as time passes.
Lumped static models are often built of algebraic equations; lumped dynamic models are
often built of ordinary differential equations; and distributed models are often built of
partial differential equations. When an equation contains only one variable in each term
and each variable appears only to the first power, that equation is termed linear, if not, it
is known as nonlinear.
Linear models satisfy the principle of super-positioning. When all the equations in a
model can be solved algebraically to yield a solution in a closed form, the model can be
classified as analytical, if not, a numerical model is required to solve system of equations.
These classifications are presented to stress the necessity of understanding input data
requirements, model formulation, solution procedures, and to guide in the selection of the
appropriate computer software tool in modeling system. Most environmental systems can
be approximated in a satisfactory manner by linear and time variant descriptions in a
lumped or distributed manner, at least for specified and restricted conditions.
Analytical solutions are possible for limited types of systems; while computer based
mathematical modeling using numerical solutions provide solutions for problems of
complex geometry and properties. Figure (1) shows classification of mathematical
models while Table 1 highlights typical uses of mathematical models.
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WHAT IS SIMULATION?
The model can be reconfigured and experimented with; usually, this is impossible, too
expensive or impractical to do in the system it represents.
The operation of the model can be studied, and hence, properties concerning the behavior
of the actual system or its subsystem can be inferred.
What is the best design for a new telecommunications network? What are the associated
resource requirements? How will a telecommunication network perform when the traffic
load increases by 50%? How will a new routing algorithm affect its performance?
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Which network protocol optimizes network performance? What will be the impact of a
link failure? The subject of this tutorial is discrete event simulation in which the central
assumption is that the system changes instantaneously in response to certain discrete
events. For instance, in an M/M/1 queue – a single server queuing process in which time
between arrivals and service time are exponential - an arrival causes the system to change
instantaneously. On the other hand, continuous simulators, like flight simulators and
weather simulators, attempt to quantify the changes in a system continuously over time in
response to controls.
The craft of mathematical model development is part science and part art. It is a
multistep, iterative, trial-and-error process cycling through hypotheses formation,
inference, testing, validating, and refining.
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While the scientific side of modeling involves the integration of knowledge to build the
model, the artistic side involves the making of a sensible compromise and creating
balance between two conflicting features of the model: degree of detail, complexity, and
realism on hand, and the validity and utility value of the final model on the other
Problem formulation
Formulation of the problem is the first step in the mathematical model development
process.
This step involves the following tasks:
Mathematical presentation
The most crucial step in the process, requiring in-depth subject matter expertise.
3. Standardizing relationships
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Mathematical analysis
The next step of analysis involves application of standard mathematical techniques and
procedures to solve the model to obtain the desired results. The analysis is done
according to the rules of mathematics and the system has nothing to do with the process.
It is during this step that the iteration and model refinement process is carried out.
During the iterative process, performance of the model is compared against the real
system to ensure that the objectives are satisfactorily met.
2. Task 2: Validating the model: A model can be considered valid if the agreement between the
two under various conditions meets the goal and performance criteria. A common practice used
to demonstrate validity is to generate a parity plot of predicted vs. observed data with associated
statistics such as goodness of fit. Another method is to compare the plots of predicted values and
observed data as a function of distance or time and analyze the deviations.
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Summing up, empirical models are used to fill in where scientific theories are nonexistent or too
complex. Experimental or physical model results are used to develop empirical models and
calibrate and validate mathematical models. Figure c illustrates a flow chart for steps of
developing a mathematical model.
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