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Symposium “Management for Safe Dams” - 91st Annual ICOLD Meeting – Gothenburg 13-14 June 2023

The meteorological event of October 2020: the role of the


Entracque hydroelectrical power plant and the response of the
Chiotas dam

M. Corigliano, A. Bonafè, F. Fornari, F. Bernardi, R. Lezzi, S. Basano, D. Torasso,


M. Sciolla, I. Scuppa, M. Moscariello, A. Benanti
Enel Green Power, Rome, Italy

ABSTRACT: A particularly intense meteorological event hit some Piedmont basins in the first
days of October 2020, with generally very heavy effects on the territory. In the Gesso valley,
however, the effects were minor due to the storage action of volumes of water carried out by the
reservoirs in the area. The article describes in the first part how the event was managed with the
Chiotas and Piastra reservoirs, and how it was possible to reduce the effects of the weather event
on the territory. Against these environmental benefits obtained, the pumping and the retention of
water volumes have however led to a greater damage of the machines due to the suspended ma-
terial. Moreover, the basins had to withstand a solid load that was not released downstream, and
which therefore contributed to the silting up of the basins. The rapidity of the water level increase
in the Chiotas reservoir required careful monitoring of the dam behaviour both during and after
the event. The second part of the article describes the analysis of some representative parameters
of the response of the Chiotas dam. The analysis is carried out in two steps, the first using algo-
rithms to identify anomalies to highlight any deviations from the historical series. If an anomaly
is identified, a detailed analysis is carried out to analyse the causes of the deviation from the
expected behaviour. The analysis of the representative parameters of the dam response has shown
that the rapid variation of the water level can in some cases produce a deviation from the expected
behaviour in ordinary conditions, which however can always be explained by introducing appro-
priate variables in the statistical models. In conclusion, even during the rapid change in the reser-
voir level occurred during the October 2020 event, the dam responded with no evidence of irreg-
ularities.
INTERNAL

1 INTRODUCTION
On 2-3 October 2020, a heavy perturbation caused exceptionally high precipitation over the Cu-
neo region, favoured by a thermal zero positioned above 3,000 m, which limited the snowfall to
the highest areas.
This was an intense event triggered by cold polar air and warm-humid currents from the Atlan-
tic as well as the Mediterranean, which from a meteorological point of view is very rare at our
latitudes, also considering the season in which it occurred.
The effects on the territory of this meteorological event were very heavy in some areas, with
major damage recorded in the Vermenagna valley. In the nearby Gesso valley, on the contrary,
thanks to the presence of a number of hydroelectric dams, the situation was quite different, as the
reservoirs gave a significant contribution to store part of the rainfall volumes.
From a pluviometric point of view, the event was characterised by absolutely exceptional pre-
cipitation heights. The precipitation values are extremely important: in the upper Tanaro valley,
the Limone Piemonte (CN) station recorded approximately 600 mm, almost all on the day of 2
October; extreme values were also recorded at the station in the municipality of Garessio (CN)
with over 400 mm. These values represent, at station level, more than 50% of the average annual
precipitation. In the stations most affected by the rainfall, the estimated return periods for duration
from 1 to 24 hours exceed 200 years, as verified in the case of Limone Piemonte (CN) and Chiotas
dam (CN), confirming the exceptionality of the event.
In the Gesso Valley, the event of 2-3 October caused violent torrential activity along the upper
sections of the streams, indicatively above an altitude of 1100/1300 m, while downstream there
were no particular situations of fluvial dynamics (ARPAP, 2020). Along the Gesso della Barra
there was an erosion on the left bank that removed the abutment of the bridge used to access the
Vallone di Monte Colombo. The abundant solid transport consisting of earth, detritus and plant
material that developed mainly along the Vallone della Barra and secondarily along the limestone
Vallone della Rovina flowed into the Piastra artificial reservoir (ARPAP, 2020).
One of the beneficial effects of the presence of dams and reservoirs in the territory is certainly
their lamination capacity, i.e. the reduction of peak flows to the benefit of protecting downstream
territories. This is a very site-specific capacity that depends on the type of reservoir, its volume,
the type of pre-existing discharges and the size of the upstream basin.
During the 2-3 October event, the Entracque power station began operating in pumping mode,
transferring part of the precipitation water volumes into the large Chiotas reservoir, with the effect
of generating an important lamination effect of the flood wave that had no significant effect down-
stream of the Piastra dam. The rapid filling of the Chiotas reservoir required careful monitoring
of the behaviour of the dam during and after the event.
The first part of the article illustrates the hydroelectric system constituted by the Chiotas, Pias-
tra and Rovina reservoirs and the Entracque hydroelectric power plant, and how they contributed
to limit the damage on the downstream territories due to this exceptional event. While the second
part analyses some representative monitoring parameters of the Chiotas dam behaviour, looking
for possible deviations from the historical series and, in the presence of an anomaly, a detailed
analysis is conducted to identify the causes of the deviation from the expected behaviour.

2 THE ENTRAQUE HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT AND THE CHIOTAS DAM


In the Gesso river basin, the Chiotas and Piastra dams are located at the closure of the reservoirs
of the homonymous name, and together with the Rovina reservoir and the Entracque and Andonno
hydroelectric power stations constitute a complex hydroelectric system that can be schematised
as shown in Figure 1.
Lake Rovina is a natural lake that was caused by a landslide that blocked the flow of water and
currently serves as a reservoir for the production of electricity through the Entracque plant that
connects it to the Piastra reservoir.
The downstream Piastra dam was built in 1961-65 on the Gesso river, a tributary of the Stura
di Demonte river on the hydrographic left of the Tanaro river. The dam is a concrete ordinary
gravity type, has a height of 87.00 m, a catchment area of 88.3 km2 and a reservoir volume of
approximately 11.9 million cubic metres (Enel, 1980). A 157.20 km2 catchment area is connected
to the directly subtended catchment area.
Symposium “Management for Safe Dams” - 91st Annual ICOLD Meeting – Gothenburg 13-14 June 2023

Figure 1. Chiotas-Piastra hydroelectric scheme.

The Entracque hydroelectric power station discharges into the Piastra reservoir. This power sta-
tion connects the Piastra reservoir with the Chiotas and Rovina reservoirs by means of reversible
groups. In particular, the Chiotas reservoir is connected through eight groups whose maximum
flow rate is about 16 m3/s each; the same groups can operate in pumping mode from Piastra to
Chiotas with a maximum flow rate of about 15 m3/s each. On the other hand, Lake Rovina is
connected to the Piastra reservoir through a single group, whose maximum flow rate is 27.0 m3/s
during generation and approximately 19.0 m3/s during pumping. In the whole, the maximum total
flow that can be derived from the two reservoirs of Chiotas and Rovina into Lake Piastra is ap-
proximately 155 m3/s, while the maximum flow that can be pumped from Piastra upstream is
approximately 140 m3/s.
The Chiotas dam was built between 1970 and 1978 on the Bucera river and is a double-curva-
ture concrete arch-gravity type, with a height of 120 m and a crest length of approximately 230
m. The thicknesses at the dam shutters vary from 5 m at the crest to approximately 37.50 m at the
base (Figure 2). The direct catchment area has a surface of approximately 11.6 km2 and a total
reservoir volume of approximately 30 million cubic metres.

Figure 2. Front view and section of the Chiotas dam.

The Chiotas dam is equipped with a complex system of instruments to control the behaviour of
the structure that allow the monitoring of hydro-meteorological parameters, plano-altimetric dis-
placements of both the dam and the embankments, displacements of the imposed section, defor-
mations of the structure, temperatures of the wall mass, pressures at the rock-foundation contact,
piezometric levels and weirs for the measurement of leakages.
INTERNAL

3 THE FLOOD MANAGEMENT ON THE ROVINA-CHIOTAS-PIASTRA BASINS AND


EFFECTS ON THE HYDROELECTRIC POWER PLANT
At the beginning of the meteorological event in the afternoon of 2 October, the reservoir level at
the Chiotas dam was at 1936.00 m asl (reservoir volume of 7.35x106 m3). In the first phase of the
event, the reservoir increased in volume due exclusively to natural inflows from the direct catch-
ment, with maximum inflow of 40 m3/sec. To face the meteorological event in question, starting
in the evening of 2 October, Enel Green Power activated pumping from the Entracque units from
the Piastra dam to the Chiotas dam, with the objective of transferring the volumes that would
otherwise soon fill the Piastra reservoir capacity to the much larger upstream Chiotas reservoir.
In the very early hours of Day 3, given the weather conditions and the forecast, the pumped flow
towards Chiotas was increased to approximately 100 m3/s, thus transferring to Chiotas the vol-
umes that naturally flowed into the Piastra reservoir below and allowing the latter to continue to
receive the natural flow of the Gesso river, minimising the overflows downstream. Pumping
ended towards the morning of the third day when the event could be considered finished. The
derivations from the Sant'Anna intakes and from the Laus and Bousset streams were immediately
closed to avoid problems of silting, as was the derivation from Lake Rovina, which therefore
accumulated all the tributary volumes and avoided discharging downstream.

Figure 3. Levels and flows at Chiotas during the 2-3 October 2020 event. Reconstruction using the balance
equation.

At the conclusion of the event, in the afternoon of 3 October, the Chiotas reservoir reached a
level of 1954.03 m a.s.l., corresponding to a total increase in volume of approximately 7x106 m3.
The temporal trend of the levels at Chiotas and of the natural tributary and discharged flows are
shown in the graph in Figure 3. For the sake of simplicity, only the trend of the levels of the
Chiotas reservoir is shown, since this is the largest of the three reservoirs and the one, therefore,
whose contribution in terms of flood wave lamination is greater. An analysis of Figure 3 shows
that the maximum inflow to the Chiotas reservoir was approximately 70m3/s, with a basin area of
11.6 km2. The specific areal contribution can therefore be quantified as approximately 6 m3/s/km2.
The maximum contribution of the entire basin closed at Piastra, on the other hand, was approxi-
mately 250 m3/s with a catchment area of 88.3 km2, corresponding to a contribution of 2.83
m3/s/km2. The areal contribution of the overall Piastra basin was obviously lower because the
intense central core of precipitation fell over the upper part of the basin, as well as in the nearby
French basin.
Symposium “Management for Safe Dams” - 91st Annual ICOLD Meeting – Gothenburg 13-14 June 2023

The maximum total flow withdrawn from the Piastra dam through the turbines of the Andonno
power station and through the opening of the outlets, however, was never more than 60 m3/s and
this was decisive in containing the maximum flows downstream of Piastra and after the conflu-
ence with the Gesso.
Analysing the graph in Figure 3, it can be seen that the maximum contribution in terms of
lamination by the three above-mentioned reservoirs is represented by the curve “Incremental flow
per volume variation” and can be quantified as approximately 200 m3/s. The corresponding water
volume filled the three reservoirs during the event and subsequently returned to the riverbed after
the event had passed.
A careful inspection of the machinery immediately highlighted the severe worn caused by the
sediments and the consequent need for extraordinary, not foreseen, maintenance to restore the
safety of the machinery as well as its efficiency in order to allow its immediate resumption of
operation.
In addition, the decision to fill in the water volumes rich in suspension, which otherwise could
have caused serious problems for the territories downstream, led to the accumulation of consid-
erable amounts of sediment, resulting in significant silting, especially of the Piastra reservoir.

4 ANALYSIS OF MEASURES AND STATISTICAL MODELS FOR ANOMALY


DETECTION
The response of the Chiotas dam was evaluated both during the weather event, by monitoring the
behaviour of all the sensors installed, as well as in the following period. This paragraph describes
the statistical modelling conducted in the period following the event on some parameters repre-
sentative of the dam behaviour, with the aim of evaluating possible anomalies in the response of
the dam, with respect to the behaviour measured in the past and reproducible with a statistical
model.
The anomalies detection focuses on the analysis of the differences between the measured pa-
rameter and the estimate of the parameter itself evaluated by the predictive model applied to the
test period lasting one year, which includes the event of 2-3 October 2020. The statistical model
is calibrated over a period of time (defined "training" period) lasting 7-8 years depending on the
parameter considered, and applied to the test period. If, after the calibration, the model is able to
reproduce, within a defined forecast interval, the measurements on which it was calibrated, it can
be considered representative of the conditions of "normal" behaviour of the parameter considered,
therefore it can be used as anomalies detector of the behaviour (understood as deviation from
"normal" behaviour). The prediction of the model is compared with the measured data in order to
analyse the extent and duration of possible deviations. If anomalies are found, a detailed analysis
is carried out in which further input parameters are considered, aimed at including in the model
the causes parameters that led to the deviation between the measurement and the model.
The algorithm used for the anomaly detection is the regression analysis, particularly multivar-
iate linear regression, which is one of the basic algorithms of supervised machine learning. The
algorithm is part of the family of the Hydro-Seasonal-Time models (namely HST), in which the
predictive parameters are: the time (limited to a linear contribution); a polynomial expansion (typ-
ically of degree three) for the basin level to properly account for additional features; a harmonic
model through a Fourier series of degree six for the seasonal contribution, this term can be even-
tually omitted in case the response is strongly governed by the reservoir level. Further cause pa-
rameters can be eventually added to the model in order to improve the prediction in case of spe-
cific situations.
The analysis is carried out into two phases, the first step of analysis is dedicated to the anomaly
detection. The simple statistical model described above is used, it is characterized by a limited
number of cause parameters used and requires a minimum set of inputs. It provides a rapid tool
of analysis, massively applicable to all parameters, allowing to optimize the user's effort in terms
of model definition. If anomalies are identified, the second step of analysis is carried out consid-
ering a more detailed model in which further cause parameters can be considered, selecting them
ad hoc.
To evaluate the goodness of the forecast of a statistical model various indicators can be used,
the one used here are the coefficient of determination (r2) and the Normalized Root Mean Square
Error (NRMSE), obtained by dividing RMSE with respect to the difference between the
INTERNAL

maximum and minimum value of the parameter considered in the training period, in this way the
result is dimensionless and constitutes an indicator of the goodness of the fit between the model
and the measure.
The overall response of the dam to the rapid increase of the reservoir was generally good, for
example the seepage measurement at the toe of the dam were limited (with peaks of 0.15 l/s) and
the pendulums at the crest had a response consistent with the statistical model, several parameters
has been analysed, but for sake of brevity cannot be described in detail in the paper. In the fol-
lowing the analysis is concentrated on the response of a long-base extensometer in the foundation
(code ER11KLEV) and of a piezometer placed at rock-foundation contact (code PZ13KPRL),
both placed in the central block of the dam. Both parameters highlighted some anomalies in the
first step of analysis, and they are characterized by a very high Pearson correlation coefficient
with the level of the reservoir (code GI26KINV), of 0.97 and 0.99 respectively. For this reason
the statistical models for anomalies detection were obtained by neglecting the seasonal contribu-
tion, because the response is mostly governed by the reservoir level.
In the central block the long-base extensometers in the foundation are arranged along three
alignments, two alignments are vertical and placed respectively in the upstream (ER2xx group)
and downstream (ER3xx group) part of the foundation, furthermore there is an inclined alignment
at the upstream part (ER1xx group), see Figure 4. On each alignment there are three measurement
stations at different depths. The ER11KLEI parameter measures the displacement at the most
shallow measurement position along the inclined extensometer.

Figure 4. Transversal section of the Chiotas dam: location of the instrumentation analysed.

The statistical model in the training period, not showed in the paper, reproduces the measure-
ments well, as confirmed by the r2 value close to unity (i.e. 0.948) and the small NRMSE value
equal to 0.062. Observing the test period (Figure 5) it can be seen that in correspondence with the
rapid change in the reservoir level, between 2 and 3 October 2020, there is an evident deviation
between the measurement and the statistical model (i.e. r2=0.85, NRMSE =0.099). The difference
between the statistical model and the measurement can be interpreted as an anomaly in the be-
haviour with respect to normal operating conditions occurred in the past. As a result of the rapid
reservoir level increase, the statistical model predicts an increment of displacement in the
Symposium “Management for Safe Dams” - 91st Annual ICOLD Meeting – Gothenburg 13-14 June 2023

downstream direction greater than actually recorded.


To understand the reasons for this deviation, and in particular to explain the fact that the meas-
ured displacement is lower than that predicted by the model, it is necessary to analyse the response
of other parameters. In general, an increase in the reservoir level leads to an increase in down-
stream displacement, typically an opposite effect is induced by the ambient temperature, so that
an increase in the average temperature of the structure corresponds to an upstream displacement.
However, we have observed that the trend of the ER11KLEI strain gauge is strongly dependent
on the level of the reservoir and therefore not very sensitive to the variation of the ambient tem-
perature. Analysing the temperature measurement of the instrument placed at the base of the up-
stream face (code G27KTAM, at elevation of 1871 m a.s.l.), it is possible to observe an increase
in the water temperature which goes from about 8° to 11°C (red line in Figure 6 high). This in-
crease is due to the fact that the intake structure is located on the left side of the dam and not far
from the instrument, approximately at the same elevation. In the Piastra reservoir, the water was
at a temperature of about 14°C, higher than that present in the lower part of the Chiotas reservoir.
The raising of the reservoir level with water pumped into the Chiotas reservoir at a higher tem-
perature than the air temperature, has produced an increase in temperature in the lower part of the
dam, this may have produced an increase in the average temperature of the structure and therefore
it induced a reduction in the downstream displacement of the long-base extensometer.

Figure 5. Test period for the parameter ER11KLEI: Reservoir level (GI26KINV) (high); Comparison be-
tween measured parameter and model prediction for anomaly detection (low). The growth of negative val-
ues indicates a downstream displacement.

To consider this aspect, the statistical model was modified by introducing the temperature of
the upstream face (code G27KTAM) as a further cause parameter. In the training period, not
showed in the paper, the fitting of the statistical model is only slightly better than in the previous
case, as confirmed by the analysis of the good of fit parameters (r2=0.97 and NRMSE=0.047).
Index of the fact that under normal operating conditions, the variation of the temperature of the
upstream face does not affect the long-base extensometer.
Figure 6 (low) shows the comparison between the model and the measurement in the test pe-
riod, as can be seen the deviation highlighted in the anomaly detection model (Figure 5 low) is
substantially reduced (i.e. r2=0.935, NRMSE=0.065), the measurements are 95% of the time
within the prediction range of the statistical model, confirming that the increase of the upstream
face temperature is the cause in the anomaly in the long-base extensometer.
INTERNAL

Figure 6. Test period for the parameter ER11KLEI: Reservoir level (GI26KINV) and temperature of the
upstream face (GI27KTAM) (high); Comparison between measured parameter and model prediction for
detailed analysis (low). The growth of negative values indicates a downstream displacement.

The analysed piezometer (code PZ13KPRL) is placed below the pulvinus in the upstream area
of the central block at a level of 1852.9 m a.s.l. The statistical model was created considering the
reservoir level (code GI26KINV) as a cause parameter with a polynomial expansion degree equal
to 4. In relation to the sampling frequency of the data, which consider one datum per day, the
model is well constrained, and the degree of polynomial expansion considered does not generate
"overfitting" issues. The model reproduces the measurements well, the r2 value is close to unity
(i.e. 0.98) and the NRMSE value is rather small (i.e.0.032). Even the piezometric level, like the
long-base extensometer in the foundation, is sensitive to the rapid variation of the reservoir level,
and in correspondence with the rapid water level increase at the beginning of October, the meas-
urement has a peak that the model for anomalies identification is unable to capture. The statistical
model tends to overestimate the response because it predicts a higher piezometric level value than
the one actually measured (Figure 7 low).

Figure 7. Test period for the parameter PZ13KPRL: Reservoir level (GI26KINV) (high); Comparison be-
tween measured parameter and model prediction for anomaly detection (low).
Symposium “Management for Safe Dams” - 91st Annual ICOLD Meeting – Gothenburg 13-14 June 2023

Analysing the behaviour of the long-base extensometer, it was observed that the response of
the dam foundation is conditioned by the temperature variation of the water which was at a higher
temperature than the air. This temperature variation induced a reduction in the displacement of
the long-base extensometer in the foundation, with a consequent variation in the induced state of
stress in the underlying rock mass. To consider this aspect, it is not possible to introduce in the
statistical model of the piezometer the upstream face temperature as a further cause parameter,
because it is not physically attributable to the variation of the piezometric level. Because there are
no representative measures of the variation of the state of stress or of the hydraulic conductivity
of the rock mass to be introduced in the statistical model, it was decided to use as a representative
parameter of this phenomenon directly the displacement of the long-base extensometer in the
foundation (code ER11KLEI), which it was introduced into the statistical model as an additional
cause parameter. The comparison between the measure and the model in the training period is
slightly better than in the previous case (i.e. r2=0.99, NRMSE=0.025). Index of the fact that under
normal operating conditions this parameter does not affect the response of the piezometric level.
Figure 8 (low) shows the comparison between the model and the measurement in the test period,
as can be seen, the deviation highlighted in the model for anomaly detection (Figure 7 low) is
substantially reduced, as confirmed by the improvement of all good of fitness parameters (r2=0.98,
NRMSE=0.036).

Figure 8. Test period for the parameter PZ13KPRL: Reservoir level (GI26KINV) and long-base extensom-
eter ta foundation (ER11KLEI) (high); Comparison between measured parameter and model prediction for
detailed analysis (low).

5 CONCLUSIONS
The meteorological event that occurred between 2nd and 3rd October 2020 heavily affected in
Piedmont the basins of the Cuneo province, on the border with France. In Italy, in particular, the
damage caused by the waters on the Vermenagna basin had a wide media coverage. Far more
limited damage was instead recorded in the nearby Gesso basin, where there is a hydroelectric
system consisting of three reservoirs for hydroelectric use and a hydro power plant with pumping
station (Entracque powerplant), managed by Enel Green Power. The hydroelectric system
promptly intervened in pumping on the basis of the observations of rain and weather forecasts,
allowing considerable volumes of water to be filled in the basins and released into the riverbed
when the flood was finished. This made it possible to create a strong lamination of the flood wave
which, downstream of the dam of Piastra, had no effect.
A fundamental role was played by the Entracque powerplant which started operating in pump-
ing mode, pouring a flow rate up to approximately 100 m3/s towards the large Chiotas reservoir.
Overall, considering the storage capacity of the three reservoirs of Chiotas, Rovina and Piastra, it
INTERNAL

was possible to reduce the flow in the riverbed up to over 200 m3/s, to the full advantage of the
downstream territories.
The paper also describes the analysis of the response of the Chiotas dam following the rapid
increase in the reservoir level. Significant parameters representative of the dam behaviour were
analysed through statistical models using a two-step approach. First, anomalies with respect to
past behaviour are sought, and in the presence of an anomaly, the analysis is deepened to identify
the causes. The term anomaly does not necessarily indicate a critical aspect, but a deviation from
the expected behaviour of a model generated on the basis of past measurements.
These algorithms for anomaly detection were developed and tested as part of the platform
called "Dam Behavior" used by Enel Green Power to control the behaviour of dams. They are
characterized by the fact that they do not require interaction with the user for the model genera-
tion, because are generated automatically, and use a reduced number of input parameters that fit
the parameter to be modelled. In this way they can be used for a massive analysis of parameters
of different types.
From the analysis of the various measures, it can be observed that despite the exceptional nature
of the October 2020 event, the dam's response did not highlight any critical behaviour. The algo-
rithm used for anomaly detection has identified, in correspondence with the period of rapid res-
ervoir variation, for two parameters (i.e. a long-base extensometer in the foundation and a pie-
zometer placed in contact with the rock), a deviation from the expected behaviour. The detailed
analysis to understand the reasons for this deviation showed that the pumping of a high volume
of water from the Piastra reservoir produced in the lower part of the dam a minor decrease in the
average temperature of the dam face, due to the effect of the highest reservoir level. This temper-
ature variation had an opposite effect in terms of movement of the long-base extensometer in the
foundation with respect to that resulting from the increase in the reservoir level. As a consequence
of this, the part of the rock mass underwent a change in the stress state which conditioned the
response of the piezometer.
The analysis of the parameters representative of the dam response has highlighted that the rapid
variation of the reservoir level can in some cases produce a deviation from the expected behaviour
in ordinary conditions, which can be explained by introducing the appropriate variables in the
statistical models. Despite the rapidity of variation of the reservoir level that occurred during the
event of October 2020, the dam responded without evidence of irregularities.

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Basano S., Bernardi F., Bonafè A., Fornari F. (2021). L’evento del 2-3 ottobre 2020 nel bacino del Gesso
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