21/02/2024, 17:22 How Europe should negotiate with Donald Trump | 如何与特朗普谈判？ - FT中文网

观点 2024 年美国大选

How Europe should

negotiate with
Donald Trump
如何与特朗普谈判？
He is obsessed with money but his
record suggests he doesn’t always
加内什：特朗普
drive a hard bargain |
的自命不凡是一把双刃剑，既会激得他
翻脸吵架，也会促使他接受协议——只
要他能吹嘘自己在谈判中取得胜利就
行。
英国《金融时报》 嘉南•加内什

更新于2024年2月21日 10:20 英国《金融时报》 嘉南•加内什

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用。 (Donald Trump)
Donald Trump 在离任后做出的

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21/02/2024, 17:22 How Europe should negotiate with Donald Trump | 如何与特朗普谈判？ - FT中文网

has made since 最能说明问题的 respect for the 造规则被发挥到

leaving office 表态没有引起世 “show, don’t 极致。
didn’t hold the 界的关注。在去 tell” rule of
world’s 年夏天接受福克 characterisation.
attention. Asked 斯 新 闻 (Fox 身为角逐共和党
News) 采 访 期
Trump, the
in a Fox News
间，他在被问及 frontrunner for 总统候选人提名
interview last
会不会出兵协防 the Republican 的领跑者，特朗
summer
台湾时表示，靠 presidential 普的交易型人格
whether he
半导体行业赚了 nomination, is, 达到了就连最密
would defend
大把钱的台湾 to a degree that 切的观察者都难
Taiwan with
“ 夺走了我们的
even his closest 以理解的程度，
force, he said
生意”。 observers 而且他的做法未
the island,
struggle to 必精明。他活在
which makes a
fathom, 一个早于大卫 •
fortune from
transactional. 李 嘉 图 (David
Ricardo) 、甚至
semiconductors,
And not in a
“took
business”.
our
shrewd way. He 早于亚当 • 斯密
inhabits a world (Adam Smith) 的
A non sequitur? 答非所问？也许 before David 世界，在这个世
Perhaps. A 是的。面对生死 Ricardo, if not 界里，财富被理
vulgar thing to 攸关的重大问题 before Adam 解为一块蛋糕，
mention given 提到琐碎小事？ Smith, in which 各国竞相争夺最
the life and 这个评语也没 wealth is 大的一块。你拿
death stakes? 错。但他的话流 understood as a 到的那块更大，
That too. But 露了多少内心深 cake that 就意味着我的那
what an insight 处的真实想法 nations compete 块更小。
into a mind. If it 啊。如果这是电 for a cut of.
were film 影对白，我们会 More for thee
dialogue, we’d 向编剧致敬： means less for
salute the “ 展示，而不是 me.
writing: the 讲述 ” 的人物塑
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21/02/2024, 17:22 How Europe should negotiate with Donald Trump | 如何与特朗普谈判？ - FT中文网

If the US runs a 按照这种思路， things as

current account 如果美国对中国 unshakeable.
with 存在经常账户赤
deficit
ipso 字，那么它显然
This leaves 这让欧洲的处境
China,
facto it is losing. 在吃亏。如果美
Europe in a 比一些人以为的
If it foots a 国分担了超出比
worse and 更糟糕、又更
disproportionate 例的北约 (NATO)
better 好。特朗普愿意
share of the 账单，那么它是
predicament 为了钱而翻脸不
Nato bill, it is a 一个傻瓜。不必
than some 认人，但也可以
Don’t 费心列举美国得
think. Trump 出钱说服他不翻
sucker.
bother reciting 到的所有回报。
would be willing 脸。如果欧洲大
all that America （如果弗拉基米
to sell it out for 陆增加国防支出
—— 它在这方面
gets in return. 尔•普京(Vladimir
a buck. But he

Vladimir Putin) 在另一个

can be 已经起步 —— 特
(If
had 大陆有集体防御
persuaded not 朗普对北约的主
Putin
安排，另类右翼 to for a buck, 要不满真的会烟
collective
会称赞其具有 too. If the 消云散。换句话
defence
arrangements “ 战略深度 ” ，而
continent 说，当特朗普抱
on another 不是将其贬为一
spends more on 怨盟友“欠钱”
continent, the 个负担。）要同
defence — it has 时，他的话并没
alt-right would 特朗普打交道，
made a start — 有更广泛、更深
hail it as 首先要接受他的
his main 层次或更宏大的
“strategic 零和世界观是不 grievance with 含义。他的言论
depth”, not 可动摇的。
Nato really does 并不是对西方的
knock it as a
fall away. In 蔑视，也不是对
burden.) To
other words, 掠夺性独裁者的
deal with
when Trump 钦佩。与他认为
Trump, first
grumbles about 美国正在被外国
accept his zero-
“delinquent” 人占便宜的永恒
sum view of
allies, he doesn’t 信念相比，那些
mean 观点（即便他真
something
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21/02/2024, 17:22 How Europe should negotiate with Donald Trump | 如何与特朗普谈判？ - FT中文网

wider or deeper 的有那些观点） the non-corrupt

or grander. It 是微不足道的。 sense — a price.
isn’t contempt
And not an 而且这个价格也
for the west or
extortionate one 并非高得如同敲
admiration for
either. The 诈勒索。特朗普
predatory
other thing to 的另一个性格特
dictators
remember 征是，他很想宣
talking. Those
about Trump is 告自己在谈判中
views, even if he
that he wants to 取得胜利。为
has them, are
declare victory 此，他并不坚持
marginal next to
in a negotiation. 最苛刻的条件。
2018年，他决定
his eternal
To that end, he
conviction that
doesn’t insist on 接受修订版《北
America is
the hardest 美自由贸易协
being ripped off.
terms. In 2018, 定 》 (NAFTA)
The challenge 身处特朗普时 he settled for a —— 他提出的一
for big thinkers 代，大思想家面 revised version 些要求得到满
in the Trump 临的挑战是接受 of the North 足，而其他要求
age is to accept 这样一个事实： American Free 被他放弃 —— 而
that here is 这是一个沉浸在 Trade 不是彻底撕毁协
someone 琐碎的账目和发 Agreement — 定。
immersed in the 票之中的人。但 achieving some
bathos of 只要获得这一顿 demands,
accounts and 悟，他就会变得 letting others go
invoices. But if 不那么可怕。特 — instead of
that mental 朗普 —— 从非腐 quitting it
breakthrough 败的意义上说 outright.
—— 是 有 价 格
can be made, he
的。 In 2020, he 2020 年，他与中
becomes a bit
signed what he 国签署了所谓的
“ 历史性 ” 贸易休
less daunting.
called a
Trump has — in
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21/02/2024, 17:22 How Europe should negotiate with Donald Trump | 如何与特朗普谈判？ - FT中文网

“historical” 战协议。换来什 Nato, defend 确立集体防御原

trade truce with 么？中方做出额 the allies? Given 则的北约条约第
China. In return 外购买2000亿美 that Article 5, 5 条在 75 年里仅
for what? An 元美国商品的无 which sets out 被触发一次，这
unenforceable 法执行的承诺。 the principle of 在本质上是一个
commitment to 他的自命不凡是 collective 无法回答的问
purchase an 一把双刃剑，既 defence, has 题。更实际的问
additional 会激得他翻脸吵 been invoked all 题是如何阻止他
$200bn in US 架，也会促使他 of once in 75 在白宫期间退出
goods. His 接受协议 —— 只 years, that is an 北约或者克扣给
amour propre is 要他能吹嘘双方 intrinsically 北约的资金，或
double-edged, 按照他开出的条 hopeless 者大放厥词削弱
spurring him to 件达成协议。事 question to 这一军事联盟。
start quarrels 实上，很难知道 answer. The 回答是从字面上
but also to settle 哪件事让他更生 more practical 理解他的话，解
them on 气：沦为一项协 one is how to 决支出不足的问
whatever terms 议中的傻瓜，还 stop him leaving 题。他的话不存
he can spin as 是被认为没有本 or underfunding 在 “ 话中有话 ” 的
his own. It is 事修改协议。 Nato in the 问题。
hard to know meantime, or
which offends undermining it
him more, in with his
fact: being the rhetoric. The
mug in a deal, answer is to
or being take him at his
considered word, and
impotent to address the cash
amend it. question. It isn’t
code for
Would Trump, 如果北约遭到攻 something else.
in the event of 击，特朗普会协
an attack on 防盟友吗？鉴于
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21/02/2024, 17:22 How Europe should negotiate with Donald Trump | 如何与特朗普谈判？ - FT中文网

A financial 相对于他表面上 There, people 中，人们硬是从

gesture would 的拒不妥协，在 read important 一个头脑简单的
go farther with 财务方面做出姿 thoughts into 人脱口而出的话
him (“Look 态将会有助于打 the utterances 中解读出重要思
what I got out of 动他（ “ 看看我 of a simple- 想。特朗普并非
the Europeans”) 从欧洲人那里得 minded man. 头脑简单，但他
than his 到了什么 ” ）。 Trump isn’t 的追随者和敌人
outward “ 交易型 ” 意味着 simple-minded, 都给他添加了他
intransigence “ 可以谈判 ” ，只 but his followers 并不具备的哲学
suggests. 是比较难听而 and his enemies 分量 —— 要么是
“Transactional” 已。就北约时代 alike put a 基督教世界的救
is just a harsh 而言，特朗普无 philosophical 世主，要么是上
word for 疑是最糟糕的美 weight on him 世纪30年代的法
“negotiable”. 国总统，但意识 — as saviour of 西斯主义者。他
Trump is much 形态上的反自由 Christendom, or 的关切并不在那
the worst 主义和亲克里姆 1930s fascist — 样的抽象层面
president in the 林派（美国右翼 that he doesn’t 上。
Nato era, but an 不乏这样的人） bear. His
ideological anti- 将与这一军事联 concerns aren’t
liberal and 盟更加格格不 at that level of
Kremlinophile, 入。 abstraction.
of which there is
no lack on the
Even his 就连他对中国的
US right, would
grievance with 不满也比当下华
be harder to
China is 盛顿很多人更狭
bind into the
narrower, more 窄，更聚焦于贸
alliance.
trade-centred, 易。受过思想训
than that of 练的政治阶层，
In one of the 在描写美国政坛 much of 往往寻求从宏大
great 的伟大电影之一 Washington 视角看待这个本
Washington 《富贵逼人来》 now. Trained in 质上是守财奴的
films, Being (Being There) ideas, the 人：一会儿是
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21/02/2024, 17:22 How Europe should negotiate with Donald Trump | 如何与特朗普谈判？ - FT中文网

political class “ 威权者 ” ，一会 The ultimate

sees in grand 儿是 “ 孤立主义 rule of
terms — 者 ” 。与特朗普 negotiating with
“authoritarian” 谈判的终极规则 Trump is that
this, 是，别用知识分 no one will be
“isolationist” 子上阵。 worse at it than
that — a man an intellectual.
who
bottom, a miser.
is, at
janan.ganesh@ft.com / 译者 和风
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