International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

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International Journal of Fatigue

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijfatigue

Machine learning assisted probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment

Hang-Hang Gu a, Run-Zi Wang a, b, Shun-Peng Zhu c, Xiao-Wei Wang d, Dong-Ming Wang a,
Guo-Dong Zhang e, Zhi-Chao Fan f, Xian-Cheng Zhang a, *, Shan-Tung Tu a
a
Key Laboratory of Pressure Systems and Safety, Ministry of Education, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai 200237, PR China
b
Fracture and Reliability Research Institute, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8579, Japan
c
School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu 611731, PR China
d
School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, PR China
e
Suzhou Nuclear Power Research Institute, Suzhou 215004, PR China
f
Hefei General Machinery Research Institute Co. Ltd., Hefei 230031, PR China

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: In order to investigate the probabilistic damage distribution under creep-fatigue interaction, machine learning
Creep-fatigue framework with the divide-and-conquer methodology is proposed to expand the creep-fatigue life sample size of
Machine learning each load condition. The optimized deterministic life prediction model, strain energy density exhaustion model
Divide-and-conquer
(SEDE), is selected to take material variability into account. Subsequently, random accumulated creep and fa­
Probabilistic damage assessment
tigue damage are obtained by the combination of probabilistic SEDE life model and creep-fatigue life distribu­
tions through the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) simulation. A relative scatter factor depicted in the creep-
fatigue interaction diagram is introduced to reveal the dominance of scatter in creep/fatigue on life scatter.
Consequently, a probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment diagram with involving probabilistic equipo­
tential line for safety evaluations is established. Such probabilistic damage assessment may provide reference and
has promising potential in the further creep-fatigue life design for reliability.

1. Introduction
With the continuous improvement of the thrust-to-weight ratio of
aero-engines, the service environment of some typical rotating compo­
nents like turbine disks have become increasingly complicated. Due to
the long-term complex load and extreme high-temperature environ­
ment, the creep-fatigue interaction has become the main factor that
threats the integrity of materials and structures [1,2]. In such a condi­
tion, creep and fatigue damage are accumulated gradually and material
failure will occur when they exceed the allowable damage critical value.
In order to evaluate the damage and thus predict the creep-fatigue
life, many researchers have made great efforts and proposed a lot of
creep-fatigue life prediction models such as time fraction method (TF)
[3] , ductility exhaustion (DE) [4,5] and its extended methods [6], strain
energy density exhaustion method (SEDE) [7], etc. Among them, the
creep-fatigue interaction diagram with involving a specific design code/
fail envelope is of great importance to the damage assessment and safety
life design [8–10]. The cycle-by-cycle damage trajectory for creep and
fatigue continues to accumulate until reach the envelope with increasing
load cycles. However, it is worth noting that such safety life design
method based on the deterministic framework is difficult to consider the
uncertainty factors. Actually, due to the variation in material, there are
certain uncertainty in the creep-fatigue life prediction model [11].
Therefore, the material parameters involved in the life model can be
treated as random variables in consideration of material variability. In
addition, creep-fatigue life presents a considerable stochastic charac­
teristic, which poses a challenge to the safety life design principles in
engineering practice. The scatter characteristic is caused by multi-source
uncertainties, such as the scatter of material properties, the randomness
of the load, the uncertainty of geometric dimensions [12–14] and so on.
Consequently, the accumulated creep and fatigue damage until failure
for the material also show the scatter characteristic. In such a case, the
design code/fail envelope in the creep-fatigue interaction diagram may
not necessarily encompass all the random failure points. As a conse­
quence, the deterministic envelope should have a certain confidence
level and the probabilistic damage assessment is necessary to be
developed.
The random accumulated damage can be obtained based on the
combination of probabilistic life prediction model and creep-fatigue life

* Corresponding author at: Key Laboratory of Pressure Systems and Safety, Ministry of Education, School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, East China
University of Science and Technology, Meilong Road 130, Xuhui District, Shanghai 200237, PR China.
E-mail address: xczhang@ecust.edu.cn (X.-C. Zhang).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijfatigue.2021.106677
Received 24 June 2021; Received in revised form 22 September 2021; Accepted 25 November 2021
Available online 30 November 2021
0142-1123/© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
H.-H. Gu et al. International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

Nomenclature yj the output of GRNN

k1 number of neurons in the output layer of GRNN
A, B material-dependent constants in Jeong et al.’s stress yij the jth component of the output of the ith radial layer
relaxation formula neuron corresponding to the learning samples
B’’, b constants in Feltham’s stress relaxation model n1 , m1 number of the input and output variables of ELM
X Training sample for GRNN wi , bi weight and bias vector connecting the ith hidden node
Xi learning samples corresponding to the ith neuron oj output vector of ELM
M1,N1 constants in the creep damage in the SEDE model n power exponent in the simplified continuous envelope
SD summation of the output for the radial layer tR (σ , T) creep-rupture time equation at given stress level and
SNj weighted summation of the output for the radial layer temperature
Pi transfer function of GRNN Δwp plastic strain energy density
Nh number of hidden nodes in ELM Δεt total strain range
Rej empirical reliability corresponding to the jth creep-fatigue Δεp plastic strain range at half-life cycle
lifetime σ0 initial stress/max stress of the hold time at half-life cycle
Xij,Yij input parameters and experimental creep-fatigue life for σm mean stress in one cycle
the jth parallel specimen in the ith load condition ε̇in instantaneous inelastic strain rate
Yei augmented life sample in the ith load condition εf (ε̇in , T, σ) creep ductility equation at the appropriate temperature
Xei input parameters in the ith load condition for sample size as a function of both strain rate and stress
expansion σ̇ stress relaxation rate during the hold period
S relative scatter factor σ1 smoothing factor of GRNN
C confidence level of the simplified continuous envelope βi output weight vector connecting the ith hidden node with
E Young’s modulus the output neurons
Mout number of random accumulated damage data points that λ, τ scale parameter and shape parameter of 2PWD
fall outside the continuous envelope H hidden layer output matrix
Mtot total number of random accumulated damage data points β matrix of output weights
LCi ith load condition T matrix of targets
Nc-f creep-fatigue cycles H+ Moore-Penrose generalized inverse of matrix H
Df accumulated fatigue damage G(⋅) activation function
Dc accumulated creep damage f(⋅) probability density function of 2PWD
i,j
Nc− f creep-fatigue life of the jth sampling under the ith load fitness (model, LCi ) fitness value of one ML model under the ith load
condition condition
i,j
Dc , Df
i,j
accumulated creep and fatigue damage of the jth sampling model (Xij ) the jth expected life by the ML model in the ith load
condition
under the ith load condition
optimalmodeli (Xe,i ) the optimal ML model aiming at the ith load
dc creep damage per cycle
condition for sample size expansion
df fatigue damage per cycle
i,j i,j
dc , d f creep and fatigue damage per cycle of the jth sampling Abbreviations
under the ith load condition TF time fraction model
td tensile hold time in one cycle DE ductile exhaustion model
a1,b1 constants in the fatigue damage SMDE stress modified ductile exhaustion model
K,α material and temperature dependent coefficients in creep- SEDE strain energy density exhaustion model
rupture time equation CV coefficient of variation
d,β′ ,c1 material and temperature dependent coefficients in creep VASM virtual augmented sample method
ductility equation ML machine learning
ϕ, n2 material and temperature dependent coefficients in the ANN artificial neural network
energy-based ductility exhaustion model ELM extreme learning machine
ẇin,t instantaneous inelastic strain energy density dissipation SVM support vector machine
rate SVR support vector regression
wf,crit (T) critical failure strain energy density under the condition RF random forest
free from the creep damage at a certain temperature GRNN generalized regression neural network
wf (ẇin,t , T) function of failure strain energy density at a given ND normal distribution
instantaneous inelastic strain energy density dissipation LND lognormal distribution
rate and temperature 2PWD two-parameter Weibull distribution
win,t inelastic strain energy density at a given time during the LDS linear damage summation
hold period MAPE mean absolute percent error
nL number of learning sample RMSE root mean square error
nS sample size of each load condition PDF probability density function
c, g penalty parameter and kernel function parameter of SVR LHS Latin hypercube sampling
r fitting correlation coefficient

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H.-H. Gu et al. International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

Table 1
Chemical composition (wt%) of Inconel 718 alloy.
C Mn Fe S P Cr Mo Nb Ti Al B Ni

0.023 0.03 18.75 0.001 0.012 17.86 2.98 5.38 0.99 0.57 0.0048 Bal.

distribution with the sampling techniques. In order to perform proba­
bilistic damage assessment, the accurate estimation of the distribution
characteristics of creep-fatigue life for various load conditions is a key
challenge. In fact, the expensive long-term creep-fatigue experiments at
both material and structure levels make it virtually impossible to pro­
duce a large amount of data points under wide load conditions [15]. So
the use of traditional probabilistic statistical method is limited and
conditioned by the small sample size of creep-fatigue life. With the help
of advanced algorithms, it is an effective pathway to expand the small
sample size, in which the bootstrap method has been widely used in the
expansion of sample size [16–19]. However, the results using this
method are too concentrated to truly reflect the distribution character­
istics of the original samples. The virtual augmented sample method
(VASM) can be used to expand the small sample size as well [20].
However, there are many coefficients to be identified subjectively before
applying this method. In the view of the shortcomings for the traditional
methods, it is desired to propose an effective sample size expansion
method. In the recent decades, machine learning (ML) methods such as
artificial neural network (ANN) [21,22], extreme learning machine
(ELM) [23,24] and support vector machine (SVM) [25–27] have been
extensively used in different fields, the main advantages of which is that
there is no necessary to use any complex mathematical equations for
explaining the non-linear and multi-dimension problems [28]. Elton
et al. [29] employed ML method to predict materials property. Zhan
et al. [30] predicted fatigue life for SS 316L based on the applications of
ANN, random forest (RF) and SVM. Gan et al. [31] estimated the
remaining fatigue life by using the improved ELM. However, it appears
that few works focus on the application of sample size expansion with
the help of ML methods. Besides, with regard to the complicated creep/
fatigue damage assessment for the components with notches [32] or
mixed load modes [33], the ML techniques also have promising
potential due to their low computational resources required. Especially,
in consideration of performing effective probabilistic damage assess­
ment, the multiple sets of creep-fatigue tests for each load condition
were carried out under the same experimental environment. Therefore,
it further increases the burden of creep-fatigue data accumulations and
results limited size of dataset. It may affect the generalization perfor­
mance of separate ML model at this situation. Liu et al [34] predicted the
creep rupture life of Ni-based single crystal superalloys and achieved the
best prediction results using the divide-and-conquer approach based ML
(DC approach) than those based on five separate ML models. Therefore,
DC approach is expected to perform accurate and effective sample size
expansion in this work.
In this paper, an efficient sample size expansion method is developed
by the DC approach. Then, the creep-fatigue life distribution corre­
sponding to different load conditions are determined according to the
augmented samples. Afterwards, random accumulated creep and fatigue
damage are obtained and probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment
diagram is subsequently established. The paper is structured as follows.
Section 2 introduces creep-fatigue experiments for Inconel 718 alloy at
650 ℃, the purposes of which is to obtain the basic experimental dataset
for creep-fatigue lives. With the help of DC approach, the implementa­
tion of the selected sample size expansion method is introduced in
Section 3. Section 4 selects the optimized deterministic life prediction
model and briefly expounds the probabilistic treatments. Section 5 ex­
hibits the expansion results of creep-fatigue life sample size and dis­
cusses the proposed probabilistic damage assessment, where the
probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment diagram is developed.
Finally, the main findings are summarized in Section 6.

Table 2
Schematic creep-fatigue load waveform and the corresponding detailed experimental parameters.
Serial number* Specimen and load waveform Temp. (℃) Δεt (%) td(s)

1 650 2.0 60
2 650 2.0 120
3 650 2.0 300
4 650 2.0 1800
5 650 1.6 60
6 650 1.6 120
7 650 1.6 300
8 650 1.6 1800
9 650 1.4 60
10 650 1.4 120
11 650 1.4 300
12 650 1.4 1800
13 650 1.0 60
14 650 1.0 120
15 650 1.0 300
16 650 1.0 1800

*There are 4 parallel specimen aiming at each load condition expressed by serial number. Serial number refers to the ith load condition in some subscripts and figures.

3
H.-H. Gu et al.
Fig. 1. Creep-fatigue lives with regard to Δεt and td under various
load conditions.
2. Creep-fatigue data accumulations
2.1. Creep-fatigue tests for Inconel 718
Inconel 718 alloy is widely used in aerospace industry because of its
excellent comprehensive mechanical properties, excellent high tem­
perature resistance and good oxidation resistance [35–38]. The chemi­
cal compositions expressed by weight percentages are summarized in
Table 1. According to the common industrial practice for this material,
the specimens were subjected to the standard heat treatment with the
most optimized technological parameters. The detailed steps of the heat
treatment contained solid solution treatment and two-stage aging
treatments, which are listed in our previous works [39,40].
A series of fully-reversed creep-fatigue tests under the strain-
controlled mode were carried out at 650 ℃ based on the MTS809A/T
testing machine. The total strain range, Δεt, at 2%, 1.6%, 1.4%, 1% was
selected. The dwell time per cycle, td, of 60 s, 120 s, 300 s and 1800 s was
employed at the peak tensile strain. The schematic creep-fatigue load
waveform and the corresponding detailed experimental parameters are
shown in Table 2. Although creep-fatigue tests are relatively time-
consuming, 4 parallel samples for each load condition were conducted
to guarantee enough creep-fatigue data accumulations for the subse­
quent credible expansion of sample size as well as the probabilistic
analysis.
2.2. Creep-fatigue lives
The creep-fatigue lives with regard to the factors of Δεt and td under
various load conditions are plotted by the three-dimensional lifetime
distribution diagram, as seen in Fig. 1. It can be seen that with increasing
Δεt and td, the overall creep-fatigue life continuous to decrease, where
Δεt is regarded as the primary factor to impact creep-fatigue life. The
introduction of td, which is seen as the secondary factor, causes a certain
degree of reduction in creep-fatigue lifetimes as well. Inevitably, the
creep-fatigue lives for 4 parallel specimens under the same load condi­
tion show a certain degree of scatter. Serial number 14 (Δεt = 1.0%, td =
120 s, Table 2) is the most scattered situation among all load conditions,
where the creep-fatigue life ranges from 3065 to 4747 cycles in this
condition and the corresponding lifetime scatter ratio (4747/3065) is
less than 1.55, as indicated in the red rectangles in Fig. 1. Hence, all the
paralleled creep-fatigue lives for all load conditions fall within ± 2
lifetime scatter ratio, which indicates that the repeated creep-fatigue
tests are effective and the scatters in creep-fatigue lifetimes are accept­
able for the following reliability analysis. The scatter characteristic are
resulted by various uncertainties, including intrinsic material proper­
ties, load characteristic, environmental effects, geometry and so forth
4
International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677
Fig. 2. Overall framework for probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment.
[13]. All the above-mentioned multi-source of uncertainties will more or
less result in the stochastic stress–strain response. Inevitably, the dam­
age accumulations under creep-fatigue interaction are also random.
3. Proposed sample size expansion method
3.1. Overview
The overall framework for creep-fatigue probabilistic damage
assessment is shown in Fig. 2, including the sample size expansion and
the calculations of random accumulated damage. In order to evaluate
the random results of creep and fatigue damage accumulations, it is
firstly necessary to estimate the creep-fatigue life distributional features.
In view of the characteristics of small sample size under each load
condition, it is nearly impossible to directly apply the hypothetical
distribution check and parameters estimation methods of large sample
size. Aiming at this issue, it is of great importance to carrying out
effective sample size expansion, among which the key precondition is
that the augmented samples should truly reflect the distribution char­
acteristics of the original samples. The detailed flow chart for sample
size expansion is shown in Fig. 3, including introduction of separated ML
models, optimization of hyper-parameters and final sample size expan­
sion based on DC approach. Firstly, several separated ML models, which
own excellent performances under small sample sets, are introduced in
this work [41,42]. Secondly, the optimization of hyper-parameters is
implemented to construct the ML models with optimized generalization
abilities. Thirdly, the proposed sample size expansion method based on
DC approach is adopted to comprehensively incorporate different ML
models into different load conditions according to the adaptability
analysis.
3.2. Machine learning model
3.2.1. Generalized regression neural network
Generalized regression neural network (GRNN) is a feedforward
neural network based on the nonlinear regression theory, which is
consisted of an input layer, a radial layer, a summation layer and an
output layer [28,43]. The number of neurons in the input layer is equal
to the dimension of the input vector, and the clustering of the input
training sample is performed in the radial layer. Therefore, the number
of neurons in the radial layer is equal to the number of training samples.
Then it passes through summation layer by its transfer function Pi, i.e.,
(X− Xi )T (X− Xi )
−
Pi = e 2σ2
1 (1)
where X is the input training samples for the network, Xi is the learning
H.-H. Gu et al. International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

Fig. 3. Illustration of proposed sample size expansion method based on machine learning models with the divide-and-conquer principle.

sample corresponding to the ith neuron and σ 1 is the smoothing factor. where wi = (wi1 , wi1 , ..., win1 ) and bi = (bi1 , bi2 , ..., bin1 ) are the learning
The summation layer includes two different neurons, where the first one parameters denoting the weight and bias vector connecting the ith
simply computes the summation of the output for the radial layer SD, hidden node, respectively. βi = (βi1 , βi2 , ..., βim1 ) is the output weight
while the second one performs the weighted summation SNj, which can
vector connecting the ith hidden node with the output neurons; oj = (oj1 ,
be given by the following equations, i.e.,
oj2 , ..., ojm1 ) is the output vector of ELM, G(⋅) is the activation function, in
∑
nL
which the sigmoid function is used in this paper. The learning target of
SD = Pi (2)
ELM is to minimize the output error, which can be presented as
i=1

∑
N ⃦ ⃦
∑
nL ⃦oj − tj ⃦ = 0 (6)
SNj = yij Pi , j = 1, 2, ..., k1 (3) j=1
i=1
it can be further expressed as
where nL is the number of learning sample, k1 is the number of neurons
in the output layer, yij is the jth component of the output of the ith radial Hβ = T (7)
layer neuron corresponding to the learning samples. Finally, the output
where H is the hidden layer output matrix, β = (β1 , β2 , ..., βNh ) is the
of GRNN yj is computed by the following equation, i.e.,
matrix of output weights and T = (t1 , t2 , ..., tN ) is the matrix of targets.
SNj The output weights matrix in Eq. (7) can be solved by
yj = , j = 1, 2, ..., k1 (4)
SD
β = H+ T (8)
3.2.2. Extreme learning machine
where H+ is the Moore-Penrose generalized inverse of matrix H.
ELM is a single hidden-layer feedforward neural network that
randomly assigns the input weights and biases and then calculates the
3.2.3. Support vector machine
output weights through some matrix computations so as to make it su­
SVM is a machine learning algorithm based on the statistical theory,
perior in training speed and generalization capability [24]. Therefore,
which follows the principle of minimizing structural risk and can be used
ELM owns many significant advantages and overcomes some limitations
in classification and regression problem [44,45]. The support vector
of conventional gradient-based training algorithms such as lower
regression (SVR) used in this paper is a nonlinear model extended from
training, local minima and stopping criterion.
the SVM model. The basic idea of SVR is that a non-linear issue is lin­
Given N distinct samples (xj , tj ) , where xj = (xj1 , xj2 ...xjn1 ) , tj = (tj1 ,
early separable in higher dimensional feature space through kernel
tj2 ...tjm1 ) . n1 and m1 represent the number of the input and output var­ function. The Gaussian kernel function is used in this work, which can be
iables, respectively. The output of ELM with Nh hidden nodes can be denoted as
modeled as ⃦ ⃦
k(xi , xj ) = exp(− g⃦xi − xj ⃦2 ), g > 0 (9)
Nh
∑
oj = βi g(wi ⋅xj + bi ), j = 1, ...N (5)
i=1 where g is the kernel function parameter, affecting the performance of

5
H.-H. Gu et al.
SVR.
3.3. Sample size expansion based on the divide-and-conquer principle
The detailed flow chart for sample size expansion is shown in Fig. 3,
in which the illustration and detailed implementation are stated as fol­
lows. In order to perform the target sample size expansion, the ML
models were prepared with the help of creep-fatigue data accumula­
tions. In this work, the load conditions of Δεt, td and median rank
empirical reliability Re were used as input parameters, whereas the
creep-fatigue life were considered as output parameter. Herein, Re is
calculated using the following equation, i.e.,
j − 0.3
Rej = 1 − , j = 1, 2, ..., nS (10)
nS + 0.4
where Rej is the empirical reliability corresponding to the jth creep-
fatigue lifetime and nS is the sample size of each load condition (the
number of parallel specimens in each load condition). Although the
above ML models own outstanding non-linear mapping capability, the
regression performances significantly depend on the selection of hyper-
parameters, including the smooth factor of GRNN, the number of neu­
rons in the hidden layer of ELM, and the penalty parameter/kernel
function parameter of SVR. Therefore, it is necessary to perform the
hyper-parameters optimization before sample size expansion procedure.
Aiming at this purpose, the k-fold cross-validation is used to train and
test the ML models of GRNN, ELM, SVR [46,47]. In particular, the trial-
and-error and grid research algorithm are utilized to determine the best
hyper-parameters [48].
Since the training samples contain multiple load conditions with
different distribution characteristics, it is difficult to describe all of them
adequately with a separate ML model. Therefore, DC approach is
introduced to comprehensively utilize three separate ML models for
various load conditions. We define the optimal ML model via a fitness
function to describe the match degree between the experimental lives
and the expected ones, which can be expressed as.
⃒
nS ⃒
( ) ⃒ a1 ⋅Δw−p b1
1 ∑ model Xij − Yij ⃒
fitness(model, LCi ) = 1 −
nS j=1 Yij
where Xij and Yij denote the input parameters and experimental creep-
fatigue life for the jth parallel specimen in the ith load condition,
respectively, and LCi denotes the ith load condition. Additionally, the
model represents one of the introduced ML models in Section 3.2, and
thus model(Xij) represents the jth expected life in the ith load condition.
Furthermore, i represents the ith load condition and corresponds to the
serial number in Table 1, and j refers to the jth parallel specimen under
the corresponding load condition. This constructed function quantita­
tively evaluates the adaptability of one ML model for describing the life
distribution in each load condition. The ML model with the highest
fitness value is selected as the optimal one for the corresponding load
condition. Subsequently, the random reliability values and load condi­
tion parameters (Δεt, td) are regarded as the input information Xe,i for the
optimal ML model. The output result is the augmented sample in respect
of a certain load condition, which is shown as.
( )
Ye,i = optimalmodeli Xe,i , (i = 1, 2, ..., 16) (12)
where Y e,i represents the augmented life sample under the ith load
condition and optimalmodeli (⋅) denotes the optimal ML model for
sample size expansion in the ith load condition.
3.4. Estimated life distribution characteristic
All the augmented and original sample sets are categorized as the
benchmark group for further investigations, including the performances
of the hypothetical distribution check and the corresponding parametric
International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677
estimations. Normal distribution (ND) [49], lognormal distribution
(LND) [50] and two-parameter Weibull distribution (2PWD) [51] are
the selected alternative statistical distributions in this work to describe
the distributional features of creep-fatigue life. Subsequently, the fitting
correlation coefficients, r , is adopted as the indicator to determine the
optimal statistical distribution.
4. Creep-fatigue life prediction model considering material
variability
4.1. Overview
The deterministic calculations of creep damage, dc, and fatigue
damage, df, lay a solid foundation for the following probabilistic treat­
ments of the life prediction model as well as the feasibility to establish a
effective probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment diagram.
Therefore, it is necessary to adopt a robust deterministic creep-fatigue
life prediction model by depicting the damage accumulations accu­
rately. In this paper, three candidate life prediction models are used to
calculate the summation of fatigue and creep damage under various load
conditions, and the optimal life prediction model is subsequently
selected according to the experimental life prediction results. From the
judgment, the linear damage summation (LDS) rule is embraced to
predict the creep-fatigue endurances and distinguish the predictive ca­
pacities of the candidate life prediction models. Finally, from the
viewpoint of uncertainty framework, the material variability is also
taken into consideration, performing the subsequent probabilistic
damage analysis.
4.2. Deterministic creep-fatigue life prediction model
The deterministic creep-fatigue life prediction models calculate the
fatigue and creep damage separately. Common fatigue damage equation
employed in various life model can be expressed as [10]
1
df = (13)
(11)
where df is the fatigue damage in one cycle, Δwp is the plastic strain
energy density, a1 and b1 are two material parameters. Much attention is
paid on the creep damage equation in the historical process of creep-
fatigue life prediction model. Creep damage per cycle, dc, used in the
TF model [3] is established by the following equation, i.e.,
∫ td
dcTF =
dt
(14)
0 tR (σ , T)
where td is the tensile dwell time in one cycle, tR (σ, T) is the creep-
rupture time equation related to creep stress level, σ , and tempera­
ture, T. The creep-fatigue endurance, Nc− f , based on the LDS can be
predicted by
1
Nc−TFf = (15)
df + dcTF
DE model [5] established the power-law relationship between the
inelastic strain rate, ε̇in , and the creep ductility, εf , to calculate dc. Stress
modified ductile exhaustion model (SMDE) [6] is a further improvement
of the DE model, which considers the effects of stress and strain simul­
taneously, as shown in Eq. (16)
∫ td
dcSMDE =
ε̇in
dt (16)
0 εf (ε̇in , σ , T)
where ε̇in is the inelastic strain rate, εf (ε̇in , σ, T) is the creep ductility
equation with regard to ε̇in , σ and T. Therefore, the creep-fatigue
endurance based on the LDS can be obtained as
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H.-H. Gu et al. International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

Table 3
Specific parameters of these three deterministic life prediction models.
Damage type Life model Para- Value Equations Sources
meter

Creep TF k 7.59 ∫ td 1 [3]

dTF
c = 0 k ⋅[σ 0 − B σ 0 ⋅ln(bt + 1)]dt
’’

α 11.88
B’’ 0.009
b 0.77
SMDE d 2.57 ∫ td 1 1− [53]
dSMDE
c = 0 d ⋅ε̇in
β’
⋅σc1 dt
β’ 0.074
c1 0.15
SEDE ϕ 114.8 M1 N1 M1 N1 [10]
∫ td − ⋅log(1 + t) − ⋅log(1 + t)
n2 0.148 dSEDE
c = [1 + t 1 n+2 t − 1+t 1+t ]dt
0 min[ϕ⋅ẇin , wf,crit (T)] wf,crit (T)
A 13.3
σ0 ⋅(A⋅logΔεp + B) σm
B 17.4 M1 = ⋅(1 + )
E⋅ln10 σ0
E 171,000
(A⋅logΔεp + B)2
wf,crit 46 N1 =
E⋅ln10
Fatigue TF/SMDE/SEDE a1 9869.6 1 [10]
df =
b1 1.7 a1 ⋅Δw−p b1

1
Nc−SMDE
f = (17)
df + dcSMDE

Recently, we proposed the SEDE model on the basis of the energy

dissipation criterion to evaluate creep damage per cycle in the dwell
period [52]. It takes into account the influence of the mean stress, σ m , on
the inelastic strain energy density, win,t , which can be expressed as

σ20 + 2σm ⋅σ 0 − 2σm ⋅σ − σ 2

win,t = (18)
2E

where σ0 is the maximum stress level in the dwell period, and E is

Young’s modulus. The failure strain energy density equation wf (ẇin,t , T)
with regard to ẇin,t and T is formulated as

wf (ẇin,t , T) = ϕ⋅ẇnin,t
2
(19)

where ẇin,t is the inelastic strain energy density dissipation rate, ϕ and n2
are modeling parameters. The final calculation formula of dc can be
summarized as
⎡ ⎤
∫ td
⎢ ẇin,t ẇin,t ⎥
dcSEDE = ⎢
⎣ [ ]− ⎥dt (20) Fig. 4. Prediction capacity comparisons of creep-fatigue life models.
0 wf ,crit (T) ⎦
min wf (ẇin,t , T), wf ,crit (T)

Table 4
where wf,crit (T) is the critical failure strain energy density under the
Distribution characteristics of material parameters involved in SEDE life pre­
condition free from the creep damage at a certain temperature. diction model.
Considering the LDS rule, the predicted creep-fatigue endurance can be
Parameters Distribution type Mean CV
expressed as
ϕ ND 114.8 0.05
1
Nc−SEDE
f = (21) n2 ND 0.148 0.05
df + dcSEDE A ND 13.3 0.05
B ND 17.4 0.05
wf,crit ND 46 0.05
a1 ND 9869.6 0.05
4.3. Probabilistic creep-fatigue life prediction model
b1 ND 1.7 0.05

The creep-fatigue cracking process is an inherently random process

due to material variability and microstructural irregularities. Few
models can depict the complicated damage mechanisms perfectly in a
practical physical situation and the deviations are resulted inevitably
[13].
The deviations can be reduced to an extent through selecting the
optimal life prediction model that can accurately depict damage evo­
lution as much as possible. The modeling parameters of the above-
mentioned deterministic models are fitted from a series of pure fatigue
and pure creep tests, the detailed procedures of which are obtained from
the open literature [10,53]. The final specific modeling parameters are
summarized in Table 3. The deterministic creep-fatigue life prediction
results of the above-mentioned typical life models are shown in Fig. 4. It
can be seen that the SEDE model with all the star symbols falling within
± 2 scatter band exhibits the best prediction capacity among them,
followed by the SMDE model with 2 circle symbols falling outside, while
the TF model with 4 rectangle symbols falling outside gives the worst
prediction accuracy. From this perspective, the SEDE model is finally
selected as the optimal life prediction model to further consider the
material variability. Therefore, the material parameters involved in

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H.-H. Gu et al. International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

Fig. 5. Hyper-parameters optimization of ML models under cross-validation process for (a) GRNN, (b) ELM, and (c)-(d) SVR.

SEDE life prediction model are assumed as normally distributed random

variables with the form of coefficient of variation (CV) [54], as listed in
Table 4.

5. Results and discussion

5.1. The expansion results of creep-fatigue life sample size

The optimal hyper-parameters of ML models can be determined with

the help of trial-and-error and grid search algorithm in the 4-fold cross-
validation process [46–48]. Two widely used evaluation metrics, the
mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and the root mean square error
(RMSE) are employed to visually exhibit the regressive capacities of
different ML models. Fig. 5 exhibits the performances of three separate
ML models under corresponding hyper-parameters in the 4-fold cross-
validation process. Accordingly, the best hyper-parameters can be
determined if the corresponding MAPE indicator reaches the minimum
magnitude. Finally, the optimal smoothing factor of GRNN is selected to
be 0.2 (see Fig. 5a), the appropriate number of hidden neurons of ELM is
g
recommended as 25 (see Fig. 5b) and the best logc2 and log2 in SVR are
3.8 and 0 (see Fig. 5c and 5d). Subsequently, the fitness values, which
are calculated by Eq. (11), of three candidate ML models for all load
conditions are shown in Fig. 6. It illustrates that there are some differ­
ences in the adaptability of different ML models on each load condition.
Taken the examples from 3rd to 6th load conditions (the red frame of
Fig. 6), ELM, GRNN and SVR are respectively manifested as the best
separated ML model under the 3rd, 4th and 6th load condition, while all
the above-mentioned ML models exhibit the similar excellent fitting
performance under the 5th load condition. The main principle of DC
approach utilized in this work is to automatically select the optimal ML
model aiming at each load condition according to the calculating results
Fig. 6. The fitness value of three candidate ML models under each of fitness values. In order to justify the validity of the method, three
load condition. separate ML models, including GRNN, ELM and SVR, are used to

8
H.-H. Gu et al. International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

Fig. 7. Performance comparisons for different ML models (a) Prediction capability; (b) Fitting capability.

Fig. 8. Sample size expansion results based on the SVR model: (a) td = 60 s, (b) td = 120 s, (c) td = 300 s and (d) td = 1800 s with various total strain ranges.

compare with the DC approach, and 4-fold cross-validation is used to
evaluate the prediction capability of these ML models. The values for
MAPE and RMSE of these ML models are depicted in Fig. 7a. The lower
the values of MAPE and RMSE are, the better the prediction performance
of the ML model is. It can be observed from Fig. 7a that the DC approach
gives the lowest magnitudes in RMSE and MAPE, being superior to the
remaining separate ML models in prediction capability. Similarly, the
fitting performances of different models are also displayed in Fig. 7b,
where DC approach owns the lowest values in RMSE and MAPE, indi­
cating the superior performance of DC approach. As for the separate ML
model, since the SVR model exhibits better performance than GRNN and
ELM do in Fig. 7, it is selected as the representative ML model to
compare with the DC approach. The expansion results for the original
creep-fatigue life sample size by SVR model and DC approach are
respectively shown in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9. In Fig. 8a-8d, some apparent
deviations can be observed between the original samples and the
augmented ones under some conditions, proving that the representative
ML model of SVR cannot provide the consistent performances with
satisfactory accuracy for all load conditions. With this question in mind,
the DC approach is employed to conduct the creep-fatigue life sample
size expansion procedure, the results of which are illustrated in Fig. 9a-
9d. As we can see, the distributions of augmented samples retain the
primary features with the original experimental samples in terms of
different load conditions, verifying the effectiveness of proposed sample
size expansion method. It should be noted that the aim of DC approach
implemented in this work is to expand the sample size for the current

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H.-H. Gu et al. International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

Fig. 9. Sample size expansion results based on the DC approach: (a) td = 60 s, (b) td = 120 s, (c) td = 300 s and (d) td = 1800 s with various total strain ranges.

given when the value of r is higher than 0.985. It can be seen from
Fig. 10 that 2PWD shares excellent fitting goodness for all load condi­
tions. It indicates that the 2PWD is the optimal choice for describing the
probabilistic creep-fatigue life distribution in this work, which is well
consistent with the current researches [51,55,56]. Herein, Nc-f repre­
sents the creep-fatigue life, the probability density function (PDF)
following 2PWD can be written as
( ) [ ( ) ]
( ) τ Nc− f τ− 1 Nc− f τ
f Nc− f , λ, τ = ⋅ ⋅exp − (22)
λ λ λ

where λ and τ are the scale parameter and shape parameter of 2PWD,
respectively. After the procedure of sample size expansion, the specific
creep-fatigue life distributions and the corresponding parameters esti­
mation results for different load conditions are listed in Table 5.

5.2. Random accumulated creep and fatigue damage until failure

Combined the probabilistic SEDE life prediction model and the

creep-fatigue life distributions for all the load conditions (Table 5), the
Fig. 10. Fitting goodness of ND, LND and 2PWD under different random accumulated creep and fatigue damage until failure can be
load conditions. calculated through the LHS simulation [57], which can be presented as

Di,j i,j i,j

c = dc ⋅Nc− f , i = 1, 2..., 16, j = 1, 2, ..., 500 (23)
limited dataset. If some new load conditions are added elsewhere, they
should be merged into a new dataset to perform the above-mentioned
procedure repeatedly. Di,j i,j i,j
f = df ⋅Nc− f , i = 1, 2..., 16, j = 1, 2, ..., 500 (24)
Subsequently, the hypothetical distribution checking results of ND,
i,j i,j
LND and 2PWD for all the samples (original + augmented samples) where Dc and Df are the accumulated creep and fatigue damage of the
under each load condition are shown in Fig. 10, where the index r in i,j
jth sampling under the ith load condition, respectively. dc and df are the
i,j

Section 3.4 represents the fitting goodness with respect to a certain creep and fatigue damage per cycle of the jth sampling under the ith load
probabilistic distribution. Generally, excellent fitting correlation is i,j
condition based on the probabilistic SEDE model, respectively. Nc− f is

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H.-H. Gu et al. International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677

Table 5
Creep-fatigue lives distributions and parameters estimation results.
Serial number λ τ Distribution diagram Serial number λ τ Distribution diagram

1 224.757 8.911 9 981.773 10.781

2 271.378 16.870 10 970.704 11.306

3 213.749 16.104 11 616.369 8.379

4 140.077 9.669 12 409.540 23.381

5 719.673 14.691 13 4380.956 15.031

6 648.975 16.309 14 3915.750 11.968

7 446.133 25.907 15 2736.818 7.905

8 344.643 20.495 16 892.682 12.151

the creep-fatigue life of the jth sampling under the ith load condition
following 2PWD. Consequently, the results of random accumulated
creep and fatigue damage distributions by performing 500 times LHS
simulations for each load condition are shown in Fig. 11a-11d. It can be
seen that the scatter in creep damage increase with the increase of dwell
time, while the scatter in fatigue damage increases with the increase of
total strain range. Hence, the relative scatter factor, S, is proposed to
characterize the relative scatter degree of the respective damage type,
which can be presented as
envelope and the recommend life is determined. Therefore, it is
important to determine a suitable envelope for the creep-fatigue damage
evaluation. At present, the classic forms of envelopes include linear
envelope , bilinear envelope and a simplified continuous envelope,
depending on different materials and deterministic life prediction
models, see Fig. 12. In this work, the simplified continuous envelope
proposed in our previous work can be expressed as [10].
Dnc + Dnf = 1 (26)

max(Di,j i,j
f ) − min(Df )
Si = (25)
max(Di,j i,j
c ) − min(Dc )
The changes of S with respect to different td and Δεt are quantita­
tively shown in Fig. 11e, which basically reflects the variation ten­
dencies summarized from Fig. 11a-11d. Moreover, the dominant
damage type affecting the scatter in creep-fatigue life can be distin­
guished. Considering the definition of S in Eq. (25), the scatter in fatigue
damage plays a major role when S is higher than 1, while the scatter in
creep damage dominants when S is lower than 1. In the view of the
scatter characteristic of creep-fatigue life, it tends to change from
fatigue-dominated to creep-dominated as the increase of dwell time.
Particularly, the flat tendency of S is gradually displayed when the dwell
time exceeds ~ 300 s. Taken Δεt = 2% for an instance, it can be seen that
the value of S is always higher than 1 during a period of flattening,
suggesting that the scatter in fatigue damage is always regarded as the
dominant role for creep-fatigue life scatter.
5.3. Probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment diagram
The creep-fatigue interaction diagram with the design code/enve­
lope is of great significance for presenting the feasibility of life design
methodology [58]. During the operating cycles and steady running pe­
riods, the accumulated creep and fatigue damage gradually reach the
where n is the power exponent in the simplified continuous envelope, Dc
and Df are the accumulated creep and fatigue damage, respectively. It
should be noted that the smaller the n value of continuous envelope, the
more conservative properties of the life design exhibits. It is recom­
mended that the continuous envelope should pass through the inter­
section point of Dc = Df = 0.3, and Eq. (26) can be satisfied when n =
0.576. Similar to the traditional definitions, accumulated creep and fa­
tigue damage until failure can be written as.
Dc = dc ⋅Nc− f , Df = df ⋅Nc− f (27)
As mentioned in Section 5.2, Dc and Df are also stochastic with
considering the multi-source uncertainties. A total number of 8000 data
points are involved into the calculations of damage accumulation by
performing 500 times LHS simulations for each load condition. Conse­
quently, the deterministic accumulated damage and random one are
displayed on the creep-fatigue interaction diagram, as seen in Fig. 12. It
can be seen that all the deterministic damage data points (denoted by
black symbols in Fig. 12) lie outside the simplified continuous envelope,
indicating that it can provide a reasonable conservatism for creep-
fatigue damage assessment, which has been validated in our previous
work [59]. From this perspective of deterministic framework, the
simplified continuous envelope D0.576 + D0.576 = 1 is completely cred­
c f
ible. However, in the aspect of uncertainty framework, considerable
amount of random data points (denoted by gray symbols in Fig. 12) lie

11
H.-H. Gu et al.
Fig. 11. (a-d) Random accumulated creep and fatigue damage obtained by performing 500 times Latin hypercube sampling simulation for different load conditions;
(e) The relative scatter factor under corresponding load condition.
inside this continuous envelope. In such a case, the confidence level, C ,
is introduced for quantitative description, which is calculated as
Mout
C= (28)
Mtot
where Mout is the number of random data points falling outside the en­
velope and Mtot is the total number of random data points. As mentioned
in Eq. (27), the magnitude of n determines the conservative degree of the
life design code, which controls the confidence level in the uncertainty
viewpoints at the same time. Under this circumstance, each envelope
with a specific value of n corresponds with a specific confidence level,
which is defined as the probabilistic equipotential line in this paper, as
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International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677
shown in Fig. 13. Consequently, a contour diagram containing a series of
colored probabilistic equipotential lines is established to develop a
probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment diagram, as displayed in
Fig. 13. For example, the confidence level reaches to 99.8% with the
value of n = 0.3, while that is given as 89.1% for the envelope D0.576
c +
D0.576
f = 1 . Especially, the continuous envelope is degenerated into the
traditional LDS rule with n = 1, and the corresponding confidence level
is calculated as 44.9%, which is in line with the general expectations.
With the continuous increase of n value, the corresponding confidence
level is further reduced, the lower limit of which is ~ 22%. Although
very small value of n ensures high conservatism and confidence level, it
H.-H. Gu et al.
Fig. 12. Creep-fatigue interaction diagram with the deterministic damage ac­
cumulations and random ones.
Fig. 13. Probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment diagram.
inevitably leads to heavy structures in the design period and unnec­
essary maintenance costs to a great extent. Therefore, the continuous
envelope with a certain degree of confidence level should be selected
reasonably in the engineering practice and the creep-fatigue life design
for reliability can be implemented in the future with the help of pro­
posed probabilistic damage assessment diagram.
In this paper, the probabilistic damage assessments has been carried
out based on the multiple sets of creep-fatigue tests for IN718 alloy with
the ML technologies. However, in terms of the damage evaluations for
the real components with notches and withstood more complicated
creep-fatigue load modes, ML technologies may be also applied to
lighten the computational burden and support reliability analysis in our
future work.
6. Conclusions
A series of strain-controlled creep-fatigue tests in IN718 at 650 ℃ are
conducted to build the basic dataset for ML assisted probabilistic creep-
fatigue damage assessment in this work. The DC approach is selected to
expand the creep-fatigue life sample size for each load condition, so as to
determine the life distribution characteristic. The optimal life prediction
model (SEDE) that considers material variability is also utilized to
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International Journal of Fatigue 156 (2022) 106677
calculate random accumulated creep and fatigue damage. Finally, a
probabilistic creep-fatigue damage assessment diagram with confidence
level is established through LHS simulation. The main conclusions can
be summarized as follows:
(1) SEDE life prediction model owns the most accurate predication
capacities than other candidate life prediction models of TF and
SMDE according to the experimental creep-fatigue tests. All the
creep-fatigue life data are located within an error band range of
± 2. Material variability is further considered on the creep and
fatigue damage calculations of SEDE, where the material pa­
rameters are assumed to follow the ND with CV = 0.05.
(2) The DC approach achieves more satisfactory performances than
the separate ML models of GRNN, ELM and SVR, taking full use of
the respective advantage of each ML model. The statistic creep-
fatigue life distributions basically follow the 2PWD after sample
size expansion for the experimental creep-fatigue life by DC
approach.
(3) A relative scatter factor is proposed with regard to accumulated
creep and fatigue damage distributions, revealing the dominance
of scatter in creep/fatigue damage on life scatter. Furthermore, a
contour plot containing a series of colored probabilistic equipo­
tential lines is established to develop a probabilistic creep-fatigue
damage assessment diagram, which lays a potential foundation
for the advanced reliability analysis and the subsequent creep-
fatigue life design. The main-controlling parameter of n in the
simplified continuous envelope determines the confidence level.
Lower magnitude of n guarantees higher reliability in life design,
while it may inevitably produce unnecessary maintenance wastes
to a great extent.
Declaration of Competing Interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgements
This work was supported financially by the National Natural Science
Foundation of China (Nos. 52005185, 51725503 and 11972110), China
Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2020M681200) and 111 Project.
Wang RZ also gratefully acknowledges the support of the Postdoctoral
Fellowships for Research in Japan (FY2020 P20350) by the Japan So­
ciety for the Promotion of Science (JSPS).
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