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NIQ 2024

Consumer Outlook
Navigating the 2024 pressure points to growth

NIQ Thought Leadership


January 2024

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. © 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Heading into 2024,

The state of consumers is pressured

• Consumers have been tested


in more ways than one over the
past year and beyond. Uneasy

• Resilience is emerging through


change as consumers shift survival
tactics into long-term behavioral
shifts. Resilient

• This year, expect:


continued polarization between the
financially insulated and insecure
and a renewed focus on planning
for proactive health & retirement. Future focused

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 2


Rising costs of living remain top of mind for consumers
Concerns about geo-political crisis climb to the forefront this year

Top 10 concerns among global consumers


Ranking change
vs. Mid 2023

1 Rising food prices 36%


= same

2 Increasing utilities 19%


= same

3 Economic downturn 17%


= same

4 Global conflict / crisis escalation 13% was #11

5 Global warming / environment 12%


= same

6 Increased housing costs 11% was #4

7 Personal welfare / happiness 10% was #10

8 Ability to provide basics for family 10% was #7

9 Job security 10% was #6

10 Rising fuel / transportation costs 9% was #8

Source: NIQ 2024 Consumer Outlook vs Mid-Year 2023 Survey, Global

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 3


Polarized financial situations remain
34% of consumers feel worse off, but less so than a year ago

Consumer financial position


Sentiment year-over-year (% respondents)

39%

37%

34% 34%

29%
28%

26%
25%

Mid 2022 Jan 2023 Mid 2023 Jan 2024


Worse Off Better Off

Source: NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024, Global


Q: Compared to a year ago, is your household better off or worse off financially

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 4


Consumers can’t escape the cost-of-living crisis
Causes of worsening financial situations among consumers

Of the 34% of consumers who are worse off this year…

77%
Increased costs of living

74%
78%
77% 41%
Economic slowdown
32%
Job insecurity / loss

42%
41% 32%
39% 31%
30%
63%

31% 26%
Mid 2022 Jan 2023 Mid 2023 Jan 2024
Mid 2022 Jan 2023 Mid 2023 Jan 2024
Mid 2022 Jan 2023 Mid 2023 Jan 2024

Source: NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024, Global

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 5


Financial Extreme concentration of capital among the wealthy
Top
Top 10%
10% own
own ~60-80%
~60-80% of
of global
global wealth
polarization wealth

will fragment consumer


spending classes Share of total wealth by region (%) Bottom 50% Middle 40% Top 10%

90%

The extreme polarization of wealth will continue 80%


Expect a deepened K-shaped path to future
development 70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Illustrative data/visual/concept Europe South & SE East Asia N America Sub-Saharan Russia & Middle Easte Latin America
Asia Africa Central Asia & N Africa

Source: World Inequality Report 2022, Executive Summary – Fig. 4

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 6


Playing the field of financially polarized consumer groups
The Global Economic Divide - Tracking financial situations and responses

Strugglers Rebounders Cautious Unchanged Thrivers

Steady and
polarized .

The cautious middle of global


consumers persists – but 19.0% 19.0% 38.0% 14.0% 9.0% Jun 2022

continued polarization as the


22.0% 16.0% 39.0% 13.0% 10.0% Jan 2023
most affluent rise and the
most vulnerable show signs
20.8% 19.4% 39.3% 11.9% 8.7% Jun 2023
of rebound

19.5% 18.3% 40.8% 12.7% 8.7% Jan 2024

38% Vulnerable Consumers

Source: NIQ 2024 Consumer Outlook vs. 2023 Mid-Year Outlook vs. January 2023 Consumer Outlook vs. 2022 Mid-Year Outlook, Global

© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 7


Continued pressure on consumers as rate of wage growth expected to lag CPI in most markets
Average wage growth forecasts for 2024 compared to consumer price inflation

Consumer price inflation Red = inflation above wage growth Green = wage growth above inflation

2.5 4.6 2.8 1.9 3.5 4.8 3.6 2.7 2.6 3 2.4 4.5 6.3 2.6 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.6

Average wage growth estimates

4.0
3.6 3.6 3.7
3.3
2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1
2.8
2.3
2.0 2.1
1.7
1.4 1.5
1.3 1.3
1.0
0.4

Source: Trading Economics, Note: Total 2024 calculated as average of Q1, Q2 & Q3 forecast

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 8


Using the U.S. as an example: FMCG price pressures continue to compound

Unit Price %
Increase
$131
$124
$111
$100 $105
Cost of goods are
31% higher
vs. 4 years ago
+5.0% +6.1% +11.1% +5.9%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Source: NielsenIQ, Total US xAOC, Annual Unit Price % Change 52 weeks to December 30, 2023

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 9


Consumer inflation growth forecasted to slow in 2024 and beyond,
but decelerated growth is not deflation
Global CPI % growth forecast

8.7

Global inflation
6.9 forecasts indicate
prices will ease
5.8 beyond 2024
5.1
4.7 4.6
4.1 4.2
3.9 3.8
3.7 3.6 3.6 3.5
3.2 3.2 3.2
2.7 2.7

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Source: World Economic Outlook database: October 2023

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 10


After peaking in January ‘23, global FMCG prices continue to rise, but at slower rates

Global FMCG Equiv. Vol. Price % Change

13.6 13.4
Annual Inflation Rate
13.2 13.2 13.2
11.8
10.5
9.8
8.9
7.8 7.4
6.6 6.1
+9.9%
Food Non-Food
+11.7% +7.8%

% Chg. Dollars EQ Vol

% Chg. FMCG +9 -1

Dollars +11 +12 +10 +11 +9 +10 +10 +9 +9 +7 +7 +6 +5 Food +10 -2

Non-Food +8 0
EQ Vol. -2 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0

Source: NIQ Global Inflation Tracker, Eq Vol % Price Change – Monthly – Based on a closed group of consistent categories across countries – US Dollars

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 11


Connecting the dots
What does this mean
for retailers & brands?

© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.


Global inflation is still propping up FMCG performance with volume growth consumption static
or soft

Dollar % Chg. EQ Vol % Chg. Dollar % Chg. EQ Vol % Chg.

Total Food 10% -2% Total Non-Food 8% 0%

Confect. & Snacks 12% 0% Pet Food 14% -1%

Ambient / Shelf-
stable Food 10% -4% Health & Beauty 10% +1%

Beverages 10% -1% Paper Products 10% 0%

Fresh / Perishable
Food 9% -1% Home Care 7% -7%

Frozen Food 8% -2% Alcohol 4% -3%

Source: NIQ Global Price Tracker – Annual 52 weeks ending, November ’23, sales reflected in USD

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 13


Department Inflation Heat Map - Annual EQ Vol Price % Change

Total FMCG: +10%

Frozen Food
+10% Confect. & Snacks Paper Products
+12% +9%

Rising prices
are still Food
Health & Beauty
+9%
Perishables Beverages Ambient Food Home Care

plaguing +10% +10% +15% +15%

several key
departments Alcohol
Pet Food +16%
+7%
Checkout

> +11% Higher than average +9-11% Average <+9% Below Average

Source: NIQ Global Price Tracker – Annual 52 weeks ending, November ‘23

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 14


The impact of lower inflation: Less value growth compounded by declining volume

US: Total FMCG Average Unit Price % Change US: Total FMCG Dollar Growth

11.9
11.0
10.7
10.2
December 2023 8.4 Volume declines
still a concern
8.8

7.6
+2.0%
6.2 6.1 3.1
5.2 2.1 2.2
4.4
3.7 0.0
3.1
2.4 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q4 '23

Unit %
Chg
-0.2 +6.9 -3.5 -2.3 -2.7 -2.5
Dec Jan '23 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul '23 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
'22 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23 '23
Without the right data and subsequent action,
2024 could be a race to zero-dollar growth
Source: NielsenIQ, Total US xAOC, monthly periods ending December 30, 2023 in the US and beyond
© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 15
Wallet shifts favor spending more on life essentials
Survival instincts reign supreme, but in some cases, fewer consumers intend to cut back on discretionary categories than in 2023 (e.g., Clothing / Apparel)

Spending less Same as before Spending more

2023 2024 2023 2024 2024 2023

56% 52% 50%


44% OOH Dining / *
46% Utilities 34%
56% 38%
42% Eating 48% 47% 44%
*

Fresh Produce 35%


37%

Grocery & household items


41% OOH
38% Entertainment Health care In home Financial Small

33% (vs. 36%)


Health & wellness 28%
visits entertainment services appliances 31%

37% Food delivery / 28%


Fresh Meat
37% takeaways 32%

Dairy 26%
40% 31%
Clothing / Apparel
35%
Transportation 29%
costs 35%
Home
36%
Improvement / Savings / 27%
34% décor Investments 28%

* = comparison data from mid-2023, instead of Jan 2023


Source: NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024, compared to metrics from 2023 study (or, Mid-year 2023 where required), Global
Interpreted as: “42% of global respondents plan to spend less on Out-of-home (OOH) Dining and Eating in the next 12 months, compared to 44% who said the same back in 2023.”

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 16


FMCG retains essential positioning among consumers
Particularly fresh foods and wellness products

Spending intentions for next 12 months


net change in spending (pt. change)

Utilities 20.6 Fresh Produce 24.4


Groceries and household items 19.1 Health & wellness 13.9
Health care visits 15.8
Education / Childcare 14.8 Home essentials (eg. Cleaning,… 12.0
Transport costs 11.5
Rent/ mortgage 8.8 Dairy 11.5
Savings / Investments 8.3 Fresh Meat 9.4
Paying off debt 4.4
Financial services 3.6 Packaged groceries 1.5
In home entertainment -7.9
Domestic holidays -8.1 Pet products -1.1
Socializing -9.8
Personal and beauty care -1.6
Holiday celebrations/ special occasions -12.2
Electronics/Technology -12.4 Beverages (excl. Alcohol) -1.7
International holidays -12.5
Home improvements/décor -15.7 Baby products -2.3
Small domestic appliances -15.8
Salon beauty/grooming Frozen foods -3.3
-16.8
Clothing/ Apparel -17.3 Prepared food & meal kits
Large domestic appliances -15.1
-17.5
Food delivery/ takeaways -18.9 Snacks & confectionery -16.7
Out of home entertainment -21.6
Out of home dining/ eating Alcoholic beverages -23.1
-25.8

Source: NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024, Global


Change in spending calculated by subtracting % of respondents who are spending less from % of respondents who are spending more

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 17


Winning
with today’s Spoiler alert:
pressured It’s not just
about price
consumers

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.


Pressured consumers have morphed their ways of working and living

Expect a year of redefined consumer values

Homebody Waste- Preventative Stress Planned Convenience


lifestyle avoidance health management budgeting seeking

eat more from


prefer the ability proactive with hard to balance always compare
eat leftovers quick service
29% to work from
home
29% more often 40% health to prevent
issues
18% work and home
demands
42% prices before
choosing
12% dining
establishments

less is more, plan ahead buy more easy to


spend more time generally more
don’t need as before I shop to prepare /
46% at home, going
out less
38% much to be 27% stressed than
ever
43% manage 31% convenient meal
happy spending items

only buy what prepare shopping


56% they’ll use to
avoid waste
46% lists in advance
of shopping

Source: NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 19


Saving motivators for Consumers around the world

Seek lower prices 89%


Maintaining
consumer and Switch products/brand 74%
shopper loyalty
will be a Reduce overall spending 72%

challenge in
Switch stores 65%
2024
Switch size 49%

Prioritize needs 43%

Source: NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024, Global

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 20


Listening to the voice of consumers can guide companies on how to most effectively ‘take price’
Consumers signal that they would prefer companies offer value for money if prices
continue to go up
If prices continue to increase/remain high in the next 3 months…
What actions would you prefer your brands and retailers take, related to the products you purchase?

Offer larger economy sizes with lower price per usage/serving​ 36%

Introduce new, smaller pack sizes at lower prices​ 18%

Offer same number of sales, but at less of a savings​ 11%

Modestly reduce packaging size of products (also called ‘downsizing’), but


keep price the sam 11%

Raise prices of existing items proportionately​ 9%

Produce slightly lower quality products, but keep price the same​ 8%

Offer fewer sales​ 7%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

Source: NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 21


Global Price tier mix Change vs YA
Value sales mix – Latest year ended Value share chg. in p.p. – Latest year ended
Adapting to Oct’23 – Total FMCG Oct’23 – Total FMCG

Global Index to average price


Price Tier Shifts
$$$ 18% >130 -0.3
-
As a response to the global
recessionary environment, the
Premium
consumer SAY/DO connection 18% 110 - 130 -0.2
players
is strong. They told us
they search for better prices
-0.1
and value has shifted 0.6 of a Mainstream 36%
90 - 110

share point to lower price tiers.


0.5
70 - 90
Although this is a seemingly
small share movement, it Value players 21%
0.1
equates to billions in
$ 7% 0 - 70
+++
sales moving from higher price
Annual Period
MAT Oct'23
tiers to lower tiers ended Oct-2023

Source: NIQ Global Strategic Planner, Super-category level analysis across 20 markets, Latest year ended Oct. 2023 vs. year-ago

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 22


Growing around ‘The Big Squeeze’

With pressures felt from multiple angles, consumers are pivoting around emerging
challenges to get by. These maneuvers create green shoots of opportunity that
companies can harness to weather the storms ahead.

Although there is an expectation the challenging consumer environment will persist,


there have been pockets of growth across the last few years that highlight winning
strategies.

Let’s review them…

© 2023 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 23


Despite some deceleration in growth, Private Label
products continue to deliver on consumers’ search
for better value
Private Label Performance
Value sales % growth vs. year-ago by region

Africa Middle East 46.0%

Latin America 24.7%

East Europe 19.6%

Asia Pacific 16.7%

Europe 13.6%
+12.7%
Global Private Label
West Europe 13.0% value growth

North America 8.7%

Source: NIQ Retail measurement services, Latest year ended Q3 2023 vs. year-ago, via Quarter By Numbers, Private label report

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 24


Continuous innovation can help companies to breakthrough
Supporting bottom line and boosting overall growth during times of
volumetric slowdown
Impact of innovation on overall growth*
Manufacturers growing
4.2 innovation sales in 2022 were

2.9

1.8 1.8
1.6
1.8x
more likely to grow overall sales
than those with stagnant or
declining innovation sales
Home Care Personal Care Total Average Confect / Snacks Beverages
(x Alcohol)

of global consumers say they would purchase a


63% product that has innovated to make it as
affordable as possible
*Impact is calculated as a ratio of percentages of manufacturers growing total sales among those growing innovation sales vs. those with no growth in innovation sales
Source: NIQ BASES Innovation Measurement. ^ 60k innovations X 5 countries x 4+ years, NIQ Consumer Outlook 2024

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 25


Inflation impacted Better For trends in the past year, but growth
NIQ Better For … expected in 2024 as sales trend is shifting back

YOU $ % Chg YA | Food & Beverage vs Better For

ENVIRONMENT Inflation drove short-term


shifts from wellness

SOCIETY Source: NIQ, Retail Measurement Services – NIQ Product Insight, powered by Label Insight; Total US xAOC; Total Food & Beverage vs Better For segment; $ %
Change vs year ago; 4-week trended through week ending September 9, 2023

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 26


Glimmers of hope anticipated for global consumer tech & durables market in 2024

Global T&D market results – 2023 vs. previous "After two years of decline,
we expect the global T&D
market to finally turn
positive again in 2024, albeit
at a small scale"
Ines Haaga
GfK’s insights expert for Consumer
Technology and Durables.

The following trends and developments are


expected to drive growth in 2024:
• Almost four years after the
pandemic, replacement cycles will kick in,
especially for faster-moving categories such as
smartphones and mobile PCs. Accordingly,
the Telecom category is expected to see
growth in 2024 due to new purchases, with the
trend continuing towards premium devices.

• Long-term sales tracking shows that more TV


sets are sold in the run-up to major sporting
events. The 2024 Olympic Games and European
Football Championship will therefore have
a positive impact on the Consumer
Electronics category.

Source: GfK Market Intelligence Sales Tracking, International Coverage (excl. North America), Sales revenue growth in USD; Jan - Oct 2023 vs Jan - Oct 2022 & Jan - Oct 2019

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 27


Despite deceleration in Asia, e-commerce remains a huge global growth opportunity in 2024

Online sales performance Top/Bottom performing e-commerce markets


% value growth vs YA % value growth vs YA

UAE 34.1%
Global 9.0%

Romania 29.4%

Europe 12.4%
Saudi Arabia 28.8%

-6.5% Sweden
Asia Pacific & China -1.8%

-6.1% Singapore

N America 14.1%
-2.3% China

Source: NIQ Retail Measurement Services, Total FMCG / CPG, annual period ended Q3 2023 vs. Year-ago - Ecommerce 15 markets considered, via Quarter By Numbers, Channel report
Note: China excludes TikTok

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 28


Enhanced collaboration is critical to long-term profitable growth

Collaboration improves decision making in many areas


A recent NIQ/Coresight study shows: Ability to meet the
9% 7% 9% 7% 8%
needs of shoppers
• The ability to meet needs of shoppers is a Higher efficiencies in operations 9% 7% 6% 7% 9%
top advantage of enhanced collaboration
Lower costs in the supply chain 9% 10% 4% 6% 4%

• Need for higher efficiencies and Stronger promotion strategy and


Retailers and
8% 5% 9% 3%3% suppliers see the
calendar
productivity ability to meet
Faster order fulfillment 7% 4% 7% 6% 7% the needs of
• Adopting a common platform is the key to retailers’
More advantageous pricing 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% customers as the
shopper-centricity
Enabling efficient practices top advantage of
including backhauling 7% 5% 4% 5% 2% collaboration
• Collaboration has a direct impact on
Reduce out of stocks 7% 4% 5% 5% 3%
overall company revenue, profits
Better forecasting 6% 5% 5% 5% 6%

Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3 Rank 4 Rank 5

Source” Coresight research

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.


Emerging disruptor:
Our new tech reality
Generative AI will
transform ways of working
and living in society, and new
tools and advances could
raise global GDP by 7%

Source: Goldman Sachs Research, 2023

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. © 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved.
Bringing it all together…
There’s one universal truth to success in today’s market:
Data needs to lead the way

Get ahead of the emerging value & volume slowdown


-1% Global volume growth in 2023
vs. +9% sales growth
NIQ Revenue Management

Expand assortment to capture new tiers of affordability


Value Value price tiers were the only
Players group to see sales share growth
NIQ Assortment
Grow (+0.6 pts) in 2023 custom analysis Optimization

Embrace and explore value-focused innovation growth


of global consumers would buy a
63% product that’s innovated to make it NIQ BASES & Innovation
as affordable as possible Measurement

Sources: 1) NIQ Global Inflation Tracker, Latest month and year ended Nov. 2023 vs. year-ago, sales reflected in USD, 2) NIQ Global Strategic Planner,
© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. Super-category level analysis across 20 markets, Latest year ended Oct. 2023 vs. year-ago, 3) NIQ 2024© Consumer
2024 NielsenOutlook
Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 31
Bringing it all together…
There’s one universal truth to success in today’s market:
Data needs to lead the way

Navigate the fluid channel dynamics of omnishoppers


of global consumers say they NIQ Omnichannel and Market
11% have shopped via social media
channels before Performance Measurement

Support the unique needs of consumers under pressure


of global consumers feel worse off
34% financially than a year ago. Static NIQ Consumer Insights
compared to Mid ‘23.

Connect to demand for expanded & proactive wellness


of global consumers say they’re
40% being proactive with health to NIQ Product Insight
prevent future issues

Source: NIQ 2024 Consumer Outlook


© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. © 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 32
Key findings: Growing in a declining market

Promote with purpose Balancing sustainability and profitability is crucial in a


slowing market. Focusing on short-term volume can harm
Don't sacrifice tomorrow by giving away today long-term profitability.

Value retailers are rising due to demand for affordability.


Maximize assortment Businesses can adapt marketing and products for diverse
Don't be lost, because you weren't found consumer needs and differentiate with a varied and
expanded price-tiered assortment.

Private Label growth involved innovating beyond basic


Innovate to stay relevant value concepts. Brands must reevaluate their
No news, could become your bad news positioning, and innovate how they appeal to
consumers.

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 33


Key Findings: Growing in a declining market

Reach consumers where they are Consumers move fluidly across channels to fulfil their
needs, meaning growth will come from a balance of both
It's the wrong time to miss the right place online and in-store strategies.

Make shopper-centric decisions Growth in pressured times requires navigating consumer


“trade-offs”. Use the voice of the consumer to guide
Personalize your approach to providing value actions you need to cut costs.

Be proactive & precise with wellness Companies need to harness the power of the right
messaging and product attribution to convert on
Uncover holistic, lifestyle-driven, attribute- consumers’ interest in their health & longevity.
focused growth Win with discerning wellness consumers of today.

The Full View at your Fingertips


With a best-in-class data partner,
unleash the most trusted and comprehensive data
to reveal new pathways to growth.

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 34


We deliver the Full View,
the world’s most complete and clear understanding
of consumer buying behavior that reveals new
pathways to growth.

© 2024 Nielsen Consumer LLC. All Rights Reserved. 35

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