LA NIÑA MODOKI IMPACTS ON RAINFALL IN INDONESIA

Farah Faradila & Joko Wiratmo

Department of Meteorology, Faculty of Earth Science & Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology

Email: wiratmo@itb.ac.id

Indonesia has a dynamic and complex climate variability. Of the various climate variability, one of them
is La Niña Modoki. The dynamics of the atmosphere during La Niña Modoki are different from
conventional La Niña. As a consequence, especially on rainfall in Indonesia, La Niña Modoki has a
different impact. However, research on La Niña Modoki has not been comprehensive, especially in
Indonesia. So this research was conducted by identifying all La Niña Modoki events and analyzing the
conditions and their effects on rainfall in Indonesia.

In this study, El Nino Modoki Index (EMI) data was used to identify La Niña Modoki events. Atmospheric
conditions during La Niña Modoki were analyzed using anomaly composite method on Sea Surface
Temperature(SST), zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds and vertical velocity data. Furthermore, the
analysis of the influence of La Niña Modoki was carried out using the Maximum Covariance Analysis
(MCA) method on SST and rainfall anomaly data to determine the percentage of variance between La
Niña Modoki SST anomalies and rainfall anomalies in Indonesia. In addition, the condition of rainfall
anomalies in Indonesia is also analyzed seasonally using anomalous composites based on rainfall data.

The results showed that climatologically La Niña Modoki was the fourth mode of MCA which contributed
4,05% of the total variance in rainfall anomalies in Indonesia. La Niña Modoki shows wetter conditions
than Conventional La Niña in some areas and seasons.

Keywords: La Niña Modoki, Indonesia, atmospheric dynamics, rainfall.