ASSIGNMENT

Demography in Planning

192329P
HONOURS DEGREE OF BSC IN TOWN AND COUNTRY PLANNING
UNIVERSITY OF MORATUWA
Part A
a) The importance of Demographic Analysis in the Planning Process
Demography is the study of human population with respect to size, composition,
spatial distribution, and changes in the population that occur over time. In planning
process, planers use demography for thing such as determine the demand of
services among different segments of the population, study the present and future
composition of the population and its spatial distribution, find the impact of
population growth on the ability to implement existing plans. Like this, planners
consider about demographic measures when they taking the decisions in planning.
So demographic analysis in the planning process is very important.
b) My selected district is kalutara District.
Sex composition
In 2001
Sex Ratio = Number of Male X100
Number of Female

= (527281/538958) *100
= 97.83%
There were 98 males per 100 females in 2001 in kalutara district.
Sex Ratio at birth in a year = Number of Male births in the year X100
Number of Female births in the year

= (8558/8149) * 100
= 105.0%

There were 105 male births per 100 of female in 2001 in kalutara district.
In 2012
Sex Ratio = Number of Male X100
Number of Female

= (591284/630664) *100
= 93.76%
There were 94 males per 100 females in 2012 in kalutara district.
Sex Ratio at birth in a year = Number of Male births in the year X100
Number of Female births in the year

= (8225/8046) * 100
= 102%
There were 102 male births per 100 of female in 2012 in kalutara district.
c)
Age Composition
In 2001

CDR = Population <15 years of age X100

Population from 15-64
= (261436/721520) *100
= 36.2%
In 2001 there were 36 number of dependent populations per 100 persons in the
working population in age group of 15-64 years old population in kalutara district.

ODR = Population >=65 years of age X100

Population from 15-64
= (83283/721520) *100
= 11.5%
In 2001 there were 12 old dependent population per 100 persons in the working
population of the age group 15-64 years old population in kalutara district.
 ADR = Population <15 years of age + Population >=65 years of age X100
Population from 15-64
= ((261436+83283)/ 721520)) *100
= 47.7%
In 2001 there were 48 total number of people in the dependent population of age
less than 15 years and more than 65 years per 100 persons in the workable
population of age group 15-64 years old population in kalutara district.

Aging Index = Population >=65 years of age X100

Population < 15 years of age
= (83283/261436) *100
= 31.9%
In 2001 there were 31 no of persons of age above 65 years per 100 persons in the
population of less than 15 years old population in kalutara district.

Population of the age group after + Population of the age group

the given age group before the given age group
Age Ratio = 2 X100
(25-29) Population of the given age group

= (((100353+80946)/2)/84336) *100
= 107.5%
Mean Age
Age Population(f) x fx Cumlative
0-4 88501 2 177002 88501 ∑ 𝑓𝑥
5-9 85227 7 596589 173728 ̅
𝑥 =
∑𝑓
10-14 87708 12 1052496 261436
15-19 97131 17 1651227 358567
= 33609358/1066239
20-24 100353 22 2207766 458920
25-29 84336 27 2277072 543256 = 31.52
30-34 80946 32 2590272 624202
35-39 77893 37 2882041 702095 In 2001 mean age of population of
40-44 70994 42 2981748 773089 kalutara is 31.52 years.
45-49 64234 47 3018998 837323
50-54 60994 52 3171688 898317
55-59 48024 57 2737368 946341
60-64 36615 62 2270130 982956
65-69 30045 67 2013015 1013001
70-74 23476 72 1690272 1036477
75=< 29762 77 2291674 1066239
1066239 33609358

Median Age
Median class; N/2, =1066239/2 = 533119.5
Median class is 25-29(24.5-29.5)
 n 
 − FL 
M e = bl + c 2  Median Age = 24.5+ 5 ((533119.5 – 458920)/84336 = 28.19692 = 28
 FH − FL 
 
 
In 2001 median age of population of kalutara is 28 years.
In 2012

CDR = Population <15 years of age X100

Population from 15-64
= (297526/808966) *100
= 36.8%
In 2012 there were 37 number of dependent populations per 100 persons in the
working population in age group of 15-64 years old population in kalutara district.

ODR = Population >=65 years of age X100

Population from 15-64
= (115456/808966) *100
= 14.3%
In 2012 there were 14 old dependent population per 100 persons in the working
population of the age group 15-64 years old population in kalutara district.

ADR = Population <15 years of age + Population >=65 years of age X100
Population from 15-64
= ((297526+115456)/ 808966)) *100
= 51.1%
In 2012 there were 51 total number of people in the dependent population of age
less than 15 years and more than 65 years per 100 persons in the workable
population of age group 15-64 years old population in kalutara district.

Aging Index = Population >=65 years of age X100

Population < 15 years of age
= (115456/297526) *100
= 38.8%
In 2012 there were 39 no of persons of age above 65 years per 100 persons in the
population of less than 15 years old population in kalutara district.
 Population of the age group + Population of the age group
after the given age group before the given age group
Age Ratio = 2 X100
(25-29) Population of the given age group

= (((101630+85476)/2)/89650) *100
= 104.4%

Mean Age
Age Population(f) x fx cumlative
0-4 99999 2 199998 99999 ∑ 𝑓𝑥
𝑥̅ =
5-9 103275 7 722925 203274 ∑𝑓
10-14 94252 12 1131024 297526 = 40773601/1221948
15-19 90303 17 1535151 387829 = 33.36
20-24 85476 22 1880472 473305
25-29 89650 27 2420550 562955
In 2012 mean age of population of
30-34 101630 32 3252160 664585
kalutara is 33.36 years.
35-39 87959 37 3254483 752544
40-44 84560 42 3551520 837104
45-49 76361 47 3588967 913465
50-54 71513 52 3718676 984978
55-59 63517 57 3620469 1048495
60-64 57997 62 3595814 1106492
65-69 44037 67 2950479 1150529
70-74 29670 72 2136240 1180199
75=< 41749 77 3214673 1221948
1221948 40773601

Median Age
Median class; N/2, =1221948/2 = 610974
Median class is 30-34(29.5-34.5)
 n 
 − FL 
M e = bl + c 2  Median Age = 29.5+ 5 ((610974– 562955)/101630 = 31.86244=32
 FH − FL 
 
 
In 2012 median age of population of kalutara is 32 years.
d)
Population Age -Sex pyramid of 2001 in Kalutara District

Population Age -Sex pyramid of 2012 in Kalutara District

e)
Ethnic Composition

2001 2012
Ethnicity population % population %
Sinhalese 928914 87.12% 1060107 86.76%
SriLankan Tamil 12665 1.19% 23035 1.89%
Indian Tamil 28895 2.71% 23217 1.90%
SriLankan Moor 93293 8.75% 113320 9.27%
Burgher 836 0.08% 1188 0.10%
Malay 973 0.09% 689 0.06%
Others 663 0.06% 392 0.03%
1066239 1221948

Religious Composition

2001 2012
Ethnicity population % population %
Buddhist 883968 82.91% 1018909 83.38%
Hindus 34678 3.25% 39541 3.24%
Muslims 105957 9.94% 114556 9.37%
Catholics 36176 3.39% 39774 3.25%
Christians 5038 0.47% 8956 0.73%
Others 422 0.04% 212 0.02%
1066239 1221948
Educational Composition
Literacy rate (At least one language)-10 years and over from total population
2001 = 93.2%
2012 = 97.2%
Educational Stratification (population (5 years and over) by education attainment)

Educational Stratification 2001 2012

No schooling 7.2% 2.7%
Primary 19.5% 21.0%
Secondary 61.9% 40.3%
Tertiary 11.4% 35.9%

Economic Composition
In 2001
Labor force or the E.A.P
X 100
Labor Force Participation =
Total Population
= (356837/1066239) *100
= 33.5%

Unemployed Population X 100

% Of Unemployment =
Economically Active Population (Labor Force)
= 9.8%
Economic Inactive Population
Economic Dependency Ratio = X 100
Economically Active Population

= (485711/356837) *100
= 136.1%
In 2012
Labor force or the E.A.P
X 100
Labor Force Participation =
Total Population
= (471308/ 1221948) *100
= 38.6%

Unemployed Population X 100

% Of Unemployment =
Economically Active Population (Labor Force)
= (28332/471308) *100
= 6.0%
Economic Inactive Population
Economic Dependency Ratio = X 100
Economically Active Population

= (453114/471308) *100
= 96.1%
Marital Composition
In 2001

Crude Marriage rate = Number of Marriages X100

Mid-Year population
= (11299/1066239) *100
= 1.1%
In 2012

Crude Marriage rate = Number of Marriages X100

Mid-Year population
= (11316/1221948) *100
= 0.9%
f)
Urban Percentage

Population living area declared as urban by the government

X 100
Urban Percentage =
Total Population

In 2001 = (113188/1066239) *100= 10.6%

In 2012 = (109100/1221948) *100= 8.9%

g)
When we consider change of sex, age, ethnic, religious, educational, economic,
martial composition of kalutara district from 2001 to 2012. We can see above
results.
• When we consider sex ratio; we can see decrease of male population and
male births.
• When we consider age composition,
From 2001 to 2012 we can see,
Increase of child dependency ratio
Increase of old dependency ratio
Increase of age dependency ratio
Increase of Aging index
That mean when it come to 2012 dependent population got increase in kalutara
district.
• When we consider age-sex pyramids in 2001 there are higher young
population than child population and old population. In 2012 we can see
pyramid getting stationary shape. In that shape we can see similar
percentage of child and young population. This increase of child population
also causes to the increase of child dependency ratio as I said before.
• And when we consider ethnic compositions, we can mainly, see decrease of
Sinhalese percentage and increase of moor percentage from 2001 to 2012.
Reason for this now in Sinhala family’s child count is limited to normally 2 or
3, But in moor families’ children count is higher than that so we can see
increase of moor population.
• When we consider martial rate, we can’t see much different between 2001
and 2012.
• And when we consider economic composition, we can see increase of
economic activate population and decrease of unemployment from 2001 to
2012. Therefor economic dependency ratio also got increase in 2012.
• And when we consider population density, we can see increase of population
density in 2012. But when we consider people live in urban area rate get
decrease with time.
Part B
a)
In 2001
Number of male births = 8558
Number of female births = 8149
Number of Live Births in a Year
CBR= ×1000
Midyear Population of the year (Population on 1st July)
= (16707/1066239) *1000

= 15.7
In 2001 for 1000 population there were 16 live births in kalutara district.
In 2012
Number of male births = 8225
Number of female births = 8046
Number of Live Births in a Year
CBR= ×1000
Midyear Population of the year (Population on 1st July)
= (16271/1221948) *1000

= 13.3
In 2012 for 1000 population there were 13 live births in kalutara district.
b)
In 2001
Number of Live Births to females in that age group in a year
ASFR= ×1000
Number of female in the age group in the mid-year population of that year
Age 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50=<
Births 1365 4342 4748 3903 1860 432 44 1
M.Y.P.F 47592 49459 42843 41171 39440 36063 33069 121163
ASFR 28.68 87.79 110.82 94.80 47.16 11.98 1.33 0.01

In this table we can see live births per 1000 female population in different age
levels in kalutara district in 2001.
In 2012
Number of Live Births to females in that age group in a year
ASFR= ×1000
Number of female in the age group in the mid-year population of that year

Age 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50=<

Births 775 3069 4923 4839 2031 576 53 0
M.Y.P.F 44645 43879 46303 52002 44746 43174 39201 169714
ASFR 17.36 69.94 106.32 93.05 45.39 13.34 1.35 0.00

In this table we can see live births per 1000 female population in different age
levels in kalutara district in 2012.

C) Total Fertility Ratio (TFR)

In 2001
(15-19)ASFR+(20-24) ASFR+ …….+(45-49)ASFR
TFR= 5×
1000
= 5*(28.68+87.79+110.82+94.80+47.16+11.98+1.33+0.01)/1000
=1.91

In kalutara district according to 2012 data 2 children will produce by a female

from her birth up to the end of her reproductive period.

In 2012
(15-19)ASFR+(20-24) ASFR+ …….+(45-49)ASFR
TFR= 5×
1000
=5*(17.36+69.94+106.32+93.05+45.39+13.34+1.35)/1000
=1.73
In kalutara district according to 2012 data 2 children will produce by a female
from her birth up to the end of her reproductive period. (Lower than 2001)
Completed Fertility Ratio (CFR)
In 2001
Total number of Live Births produced by the female currently in the age group of 50-54*(1000)
CFR (50-54)= *1000
Total number of female currently in the age group (50-54) in the Mid-year population of that year

= 1/31433*1000
=0.03
In kalutara no of live births ever produced by female (per 1000) current in age
group 50-54 years is nearly 0 at 2001.
In 2012
Total number of Live Births produced by the female currently in the age group of 50-54*(1000)
CFR (50-54)= *1000
Total number of female currently in the age group (50-54) in the Mid-year population of that year

= 0/37442*1000
=0
In kalutara no of live births ever produced by female (per 1000) current in age
group 50-54 years is 0 at 2012.
d)
e) General Fertility Rate (GFR)
In 2001
Number of Live Births in a Year
GFR= ×1000
Midyear Population of female of age 15-49

= (16707/289637) *1000
= 57.68

In 2012
Number of Live Births in a Year
GFR= ×1000
Midyear Population of female of age 15-49

= (16271/313950) *1000
= 51.83

General Marital Fertility Rate (GMFR)

In 2012
Number of Live Births in a Year
GMFR= ×1000
Midyear population of married female of age 15-49
= (16707/222047) *1000
=75.24
f)
Gross Reproduction Rate
In 2001
TFR ×Number of female birth in the year
GRR=
Total number of births in the year
= 1.91*8149/16707
=0.93
In kalutara total number of daughters produced by a female during her life time if she goes on
producing children according to the age specific fertility rate is 1 at 2001.

In 2012
TFR ×Number of female birth in the year
GRR=
Total number of births in the year
= 1.73*8046/16271
=0.86
In kalutara total number of daughters produced by a female during her life time if she goes on
producing children according to the age specific fertility rate is 1at 2012. (Though real number is
lower than 2001)

Child Women Ratio

In 2001
Number of children of age < 5 years
CWR= 𝑋 1000
Midyear female population of that year of 15-49 age

= (88501/289637) *1000
= 305.56
In 2001 for 1000 females that in 15-49 age period there were 306 children that in
under age 5 years.
In 2012
Number of children of age < 5 years
CWR= 𝑋 1000
Midyear female population of that year of 15-49 age

= (99999/313950) *1000
= 318.52
In 2012 for 1000 females that in 15-49 age period there were 319 children that in
under age 5 years.
g) crude birth rate and general fertility rate.
• In crude birth rate we consider births in relation to the whole population. But
the portion of population is responsible for producing children are the
women age from 15 to 49.so it is one of worst indicators.
• In general fertility ratio we consider the all females in age from 15 to 49. But
their fertility levels are also different from age gap to age gap. When we
consider 15-19 age interval normally fertility level is low; because there are
also include school children. And in this 15-49 age period all women not
married and make babies. So, considering all women in this age period also
not accurate measurement. So, it is one of worst indicator of fertility.
h)
When we consider above calculation results, we can see TFR getting reduce with
time. From 1.91 to 1.73 rate. TFR mean the number of live births produced by
female during her lifetime. TFR getting low reduce mean fertility level is getting
low.
When we think about reason for this, we can identify several factors.
Increase of educated female population with time. In past females normally didn’t
give their focus to education and their main purpose was being a mother and build
the family. But with the education there are lot of new paths they can choose, when
they enter to that life style their attention to family is get lower. Therefor we can
see fertility rate get decrease with time.
And also because of economy state of country, maintain big family is harder than
past. So now people normally limit their child count to 2. It also causes to reduce
the fertility level.
Part C
a) Crude Death Rate
In 2001
Number of deaths in an year
CDR = ×1000
M.Y.P of that year
= (6120/1066239) *1000
= 5.740
In 2001 there were 6 deaths per 1000 persons of midyear population in kalutara
district.

In 2012
Number of deaths in an year
CDR = ×1000
M.Y.P of that year
= (7009/1221948) *1000
= 5.736
In 2012 there were 6 deaths per 1000 persons of midyear population in kalutara
district.
Age Specific Death Rates (ASFR) for all age groups

Number of deaths in the age group during the year

ASDR = ×1000
M.Y.P of the age group in that year

2001 2012
Age Deaths Population ASDR Deaths Population ASDR
0-4 93 88501 1.05 84 99999 0.84
5-9 21 85227 0.25 17 103275 0.16
10-14 19 87708 0.22 13 94252 0.14
15-19 53 97131 0.55 40 90303 0.44
20-24 89 100353 0.89 35 85476 0.41
25-29 71 84336 0.84 56 89650 0.62
30-34 91 80946 1.12 68 101630 0.67
35-39 147 77893 1.89 80 87959 0.91
40-44 199 70994 2.80 132 84560 1.56
45-49 235 64234 3.66 183 76361 2.40
50-54 286 60994 4.69 284 71513 3.97
55-59 331 48024 6.89 399 63517 6.28
60-64 452 36615 12.34 562 57997 9.69
65-69 585 30045 19.47 674 44037 15.31
70-74 733 23476 31.22 910 29670 30.67
75=< 2715 29762 91.22 3470 41749 83.12
Above table shows the number of deaths within that age group in a year per 1000
persons in the age group of the midyear population in that area.
b) Infant Mortality Rate
In 2001
Number of infant deaths (death of age below 1 year)
IMR = ×1000
Total number of live births in that year
= (74/16707) *1000
= 4.429
In kalutara 4 deaths below age one year per 1000 live births occurred during 2001.
In 2012
Number of infant deaths (death of age below 1 year)
IMR = ×1000
Total number of live births in that year
= (74/16271) *1000
= 4.425
In kalutara 4 deaths below age one year per 1000 live births occurred during 2012.
Maternal Mortality Rate
In 2001
Number of female deaths due to child birth, pregnancy during a year
MMR = ×100,000
Number of live births during a year

= 6.0

In 2012
Number of female deaths due to child birth, pregnancy during a year
MMR = ×100,000
Number of live births during a year

= 30.7
In kalutara 31 number of deaths of females due to child birth, pregnancy or any
other causes due to pregnancy occurred in a year per 100,000 births occurring in
2012.
c)
d)
When we consider crude birth rate, we can see reduce of mortality rate of total
population from 2001 to 2012. But only by that we couldn’t get proper idea.
But when we consider ASDR by age intervals we can see decrease of every death
rate of every age period from 2001 to 2012. Though when we consider about Infant
Mortality Rate that didn’t change very much.
With time increase of health care system, general education, health education,
diseases prevention and medical fact, development of new technology cause to
reduce the mortality rate. Though still there is same Infant Mortality Rate mean
health sector didn’t give much consider to reduce the death of infant’s rate
according to increase of population.

e)
For reduce the Infant Mortality Rate we need to increase the getting Pre-Pregnancy
and prenatal care in kalutara district, creating a Safe Infant Sleep Environment in
hospitals and also homes and using newborn screening to detect hidden
conditions.
And also need to increase the awareness programs about health safe habits to
reduce the damage from things like covid pandemic situations.
f)
i)
We need information’s about
• Types of Accidents; such as single vehicle involving accident or accident
between vehicles, accidents with pedestrians.
• Accident occurring places such as which areas have the poorest safety
records, what roads do accidents occur mostly
• Accident occurring times, days
• Vehicle types that mostly involve in accidents
• Causality types of accidents such as deaths, fatal injuries, normal injuries
ii)
We need to identify in what roads types happen which kind of causalities. If we
take road types as A1, A2, ..., B, C; we need to find which causality types happen in
these road types. Such as are they fatal or normal accidents. By that we can identify
for which road types need greatest need for controlling road accidents. By getting
district wise data we can get idea in which districts happen highest rate of accidents
and also how it changes with district to district.
iii)
When we estimate the resources need in present we need to consider about
present population and vehicles count of country and. Then we can estimate
needed roads and other facilities for that vehicle count and population. And when
we estimate future resources, we need to forecast future population and vehicles
count of country. Then we can estimate needed resources in future.
Part D
a) Crude in migration
In 2012
Number of migrants in to an area during an year
CIR= ×1000
M.Y.P of the area for that year

= (234102/1221948) *1000
=191.58
Crude out Migration
In 2012
Number of migrants out of an area during an year
COR= ×1000
M.Y.P of the area for that year

= (192500/1221948) *1000
= 157.54

b) Net migration rate/ Gross migration Rate

In 2012
Number of in migrants-Number of out migrants during an year
NMR= ×1000
M.Y.P of the area for that year

= ((234102-192500)/1221948) *1000
= 34.05
 Gross migration Rate
In 2012
Number of in migrants +Number of out Migrants in to an area during an year
GMR= ×1000
M.Y.P of the area for that year

= (234102+192500) *1000 = 349.12

c) Net migrants applying balancing equation method

t=2012, O=2001
Pt = Po + Bt - Dt +It -Ot
1221948 = 1066239+168068 - 66258+ It -Ot
It -Ot = 53899

d)

In here for western province, I going to use Exponential Growth rate Model. I
come to this conclusion by according to previous population data of 4 census
periods. (In Gampaha I could only find for data till 1971, therefor I consider 4
census periods)

Year 1971 1981 2001 2012

kalutara 729500 829704 1066239 1221948
Colombo 2672300 1699241 2251274 2324349
Gampha 1175000 1390862 2063684 2304833
Western Province 4576800 3919807 5381197 5851130
We can see exponential growth patterns for Gampaha and kalutara. But Colombo
we couldn’t see exponential pattern. When we get total province, it also shows
exponential pattern. When I get linear patterns, for kalutara exponential R^2 value
similar to linear R^2 value, but for Gampaha and western province linear R^2 values
are lower than these exponential R^2 values. So, I choose exponential growth
model as suitable model.

In here these are my assumptions for this calculation

Assumptions

• Population growth per year rate of each district is similar to population

growth per year rate of western province.
• All districts show the exponential growth in population.
• Migration has occurred only among these sub divisions during the
period.
• The rate of natural increase in respect of each sub divisions is more or
less the same.
 • The rate of natural increase of each sub division will be equal to the
rate of natural increase of the whole area.
• Under these assumptions, when the whole area is concerned, there is
no migrant increase.
• The difference in population growth among the sub divisions is due to
the net migration occurring among the sub divisions.

Let’s consider 2001 and 2012 data for this calculation.

Year 2001 2012

kalutara 1066239 1221948
Colombo 2251274 2324349
Gampha 2063684 2304833
Western Province 5381197 5851130

First let’s find r for Western Province.

Pt = P0ert
5851130=5381197 e^(r*11)
r = 0.00761 = 0.761%

Then we predict 2012 populations of districts, if districts have same r value of

western province. Then considering the different between predict value and census
data values we can get Net migration values of districts.
Year 2001 2012 2012(Predict) Net Migrate
kalutara 1066239 1221948 1159352 62596
Colombo 2251274 2324349 2447875 -123526
Gampha 2063684 2304833 2063684 241149
Western Province 5381197 5851130
• Kalutara has 62596 of Net migrations since 2001 to 2012.
• Colombo has -123526 of Net migrations since 2001 to 2012.
• Kalutara has 241149 of Net migrations since 2001 to 2012.
e)

In kalutara we can see positive net migration value. Because kalutara located in
western province and near to Colombo people like to choose kalutara as their home
district. So, we can see increase of in migrants in kalutara with time. But if it
increases more it can cause to over population. For reduce this increase we can
introduce new policy like restriction or extra tax for selling lands for peoples in
other districts. By that we can prevent from in migration.

f)

When country is in a situation of under threat of declining population for increase

in migrants,

Government can give free citizenships for peoples in other countries. By that
country can increase the in migrants.

Give more job opportunities to foreign young generation. By that also can increase
the in-migrant rate. Because when they come to job, there is a possibility that they
marry a person in this country and live as a citizen.
Part E

a)

Least developed countries

If we consider least developed countries in the world such as Niger, we can see high
(42-38) birth rate in previous 10 years. And High mortality (16). With time we can
see decline of death rate to 11. In these countries natural increase of the
population will take higher value. we can see rapid increase of population in these
countries. Therefor normally these least developed countries belong to stage 2 in
demographic transition model.
Developing countries

If we consider developing countries in the world such as India, we can see birth
rates gradually decrease in past 10 years as in chart (25 to 19 in previous 10 years).
Reason for this is improved economic conditions, an increase in women’s status.
And as in this chart in India death rate falls slowly (8 to 7 in previous 10 years). In
these countries also population growth continues, but at a lower rate. So, we can
see population growth begins to level off. Therefor normally these developing
countries belong to stage 3 in demographic transition model.
Developed countries

If we consider developed countries in the world such as UK, we can see low birth
rate (12-11) and death rate (9) in past 10 years as in chart. As reason for this we
can see highly educated citizens, strong economies, ample healthcare systems,
expanded employment opportunities for women, the migration of people from
rural communities to cities. Because of low birth and death rates we can see
stabilizing of the population. Therefor normally these developed countries belong
to stage 4 in demographic transition model.
b)
Sri Lanka is developing country, when we consider about death and birth rate of Sri
Lanka in last 50 years, we can see it like this.

As in here we can see in 1936 to 1961 period death rate get gradually decreasing
and not much change of fertility rate. Reason for gradually decrease of death rate
is the malaria control campaign of the 1930 decade. After 1961 we can only see
very slow fall of death rate and when it comes to present it come to nearly stable
situation. But when we consider about birth rate after 1961, we can see birth rate
get gradually decreasing and after 2001 that gradual decrease gets low and it also
turning into stable situation. Reason for this decrease of birthrate is Sri Lanka
followed some anti-natalist population policies and “Punchi pawla ratharan” steps
that get by governments to control the birth rate. According to the 1981 Census
the child population was 35.2% but when it comes to 2012 it had dropped to
25.2%.in that time we can identified natural growth also reduce. Looking this chart,
we can see birth and death rate becoming low and turning to stable situation. This
mean Sri Lanka is at final stage of 3rd demographic transition stage and near to go
to 4th stage of demographic transition.
Part F
a)
Pt = Po + Bt - Dt + (It -Ot)
= 1066239+168068 - 66258+ 53899
=1221948
b)
P 2010 = P 2001 +( P 2012-P 2001) *n/N
=1066239+(1221948-1066239) *9/11
=1193637
c)
According to line chart population in 2010 is 1.19million.
d)
In here I add trendline to scatter plot, I add both exponential and linear trendlines
and check what has highest R^2 value.
In linear one R^2 value is 0.9978, In exponential one R^2 value is 0.9977. Linear
one has higher value of R^2, So I choose Arithmetic Growth Model as the most
suitable one.
e)
P2012 = P2001 + dt
First let’s find population growth rate using 2001 and 2012 data.
1221948= 1066239+d*11
d = 14155.36364
Then we can find population of 2021
P2021 = P2012 + dt
= 1221948+14155.36364*9
=1349346.27273
=1349346
f)
Population Estimate = Population in grouping housing+ (occupied housing Units * Average household size)

Occupied housing units = housing units (2012 to 2021) *(occupancy rate)

Housing units (2012 to 2021) = housing units2012+building permits (2012 to 2021)-residential demolitions (2012 to 2021) +net conversions (2012 to 2021)
Occupancy rate = 1- vacancy rate

Vacancy rate = number of vacant housing/ numbers of occupied housing

= 35199/302371

= 0.11641

Occupancy rate = 1- 0.11641

= 0.88359

Housing units (2012 to 2021) = housing units2012+building permits (2012 to 2021)-residential demolitions (2012 to 2021) +net conversions (2012 to 2021)

= 337570 +? -? + ?

Occupied housing units = housing units (2012 to 2021) *(occupancy rate)

= ? * 0.88359

Population Estimate = Population in grouping housing+ (occupied housing Units * Average household size)

= ? + ( ? * 3.9)
Part G
a)
P2022 = P2012 + b(n)
b = ∑dt (Pt-Pt-1)/m
b=(P2012-P2001) +(P2001-P1991) +(P1991-P1981) +(P1981-P1971) +(P1971-P1963)
5
=(P2012-P2001) +(P2001-P1981) +(P1981-P1971) +(P1971-P1963)
5

= (155709) +(236535) +(100204) +(98000)

5
b = 118090
P2022 = P2012 + b(n)
= 1221948 + 118090(1)
= 1340038
b)
Y = a+ bX
I didn’t get years(x) as 1, 2, 3, 4... Because time gaps of census periods are not equal.
I get different between 1963 and 1971, and according to that calculate the values
of future years.
1971-1963 =8 -> 1
1981-1971 =10-> (1/8) *10 = 1.25 So value of 1981 is 2+1.25 = 3.25
Like this I get x values.
Census Year X(Year) Y(Population) X times Y X^2
1963=1 1 631500 631500 1
1971=2 2 729500 1459000 4
1981=3.25 3.25 829704 2696538 10.5625
2001=5.75 5.75 1066239 6130874.25 33.0625
2012=7.125 7.125 1221948 8706379.5 50.76563
SUM 19.125 4478891 19624291.75 99.39063
N=5
We need to find 2022 one,2022-2012=10-> (1/8) *10 = 1.25 So 2022 X value is
7.125+1.25 = 8.375

b = N∑XY – (∑X) (∑Y)

N∑X2 – (∑X)2
b = 5*(19624291.75) -(19.125) (4478891)
5*(99.39063) – (19.125)2
= 94998.90
a = ∑Y-b∑X
N
a = (4478891- 94998.90*19.125)/5
= 532407.4
Y = a+bX
Y = 532407.4+ (94998.90*(8.375))
Y = 1328023
c)
When we get these results we can see different results, Reasons for this is
the census data did not have a pattern of equal population growth for each census
taking. So, when we using linear regression, the equation attempted to fit the line
through population data points starting from 1963. But though there is not exact
100% linear shape, so these 2 calculations give 2 results for us. If there is 100%
linear shape these results will be same.
Part H
a) Ratio Method
Kalutara district growth pattern is in linear pattern. So, for use ratio method I
consider DS Divisions also have same similar pattern of growth.
From previous methods to get the population of 2022, I will use 2001, 2012 data
to get the 2022 one using
P2012 = P2001 + dt
1221948= 1066239+d*11
d = 14155.36364
P2022 = P2012 + dt
= 1221948+14155.36364*10
= 1363502
Then using this population projection and 2012 population data of kalutara DS
Divisions; I going to apply Ratio Method to predict populations in DS Divisions at
2022.

DSD population in 2022 = (DSD Population in 2012) * Kalutara projection 2022

(Kalutara District Population in 2012)

For Panadura, = (182285/1221948) * 1363502

= 203401.4
= 203401
In this chart this same calculation done for all other DS Divisions using excel.
DS Divisions Census for 2012 Projection2022
Panadura 182285 203401
Bandaragama 109236 121890
Horana 113364 126496
Ingiriya 53896 60139
Bulathsinhala 64600 72083
Madurawala 34381 38364
Millaniya 52176 58220
Kalutara 159697 178197
Beruwala 164969 184079
Dodangoda 63960 71369
Mathugama 81286 90702
Agalawatta 36669 40917
Palindanuwara 50801 56686
Walallavita 54628 60956
 b) I project 2022 kalutara district population use only 2 census period data. But in part G in
linear regression analysis, I use data of 5 census period and project the 2022 population. So
now I’m going to use that projected population to find populations of DS Divisions in
2022.For that I going to use adjustment factor. For find the adjustment factor I get the
proportions by dividing projected DSD populations by Kalutara district 2022 projected
population using linear regression analysis (1328023).

Panadura proportion = 203401/1328023

= 0.153
Like this all-other DS Division proportion calculate by using excel like this.
DS Divisions Census for 2012 Projection2022 Proportion
Agalawatta 36669 40917 0.031
Bandaragama 109236 121890 0.092
Beruwala 164969 184079 0.139
Bulathsinhala 64600 72083 0.054
Dodangoda 63960 71369 0.054
Horana 113364 126496 0.095
Ingiriya 53896 60139 0.045
Kalutara 159697 178197 0.134
Madurawala 34381 38364 0.029
Mathugama 81286 90702 0.068
Millaniya 52176 58220 0.044
Palindanuwara 50801 56686 0.043
Panadura 182285 203401 0.153
Walallavita 54628 60956 0.046
1221948 1363502 1.027

Adjustment Factor = 1/ (sum of all the proportional shares of all the sub-areas)
=1/1.027
=0.973979503

Then by multiplying 2022 projected DS Divisions previous values by adjustment

factor, I can get new adjusted values for DS Divisions.

Panadura Adjusted projection = 203401*0.973979503

= 198109
Like this all-other DS Division adjusted projections calculate by using excel like this.
DS Divisions Census for 2012 Projection2022 Proportion Adjusted Projections
Agalawatta 36669 40917 0.031 39852
Bandaragama 109236 121890 0.092 118719
Beruwala 164969 184079 0.139 179290
Bulathsinhala 64600 72083 0.054 70208
Dodangoda 63960 71369 0.054 69512
Horana 113364 126496 0.095 123205
Ingiriya 53896 60139 0.045 58575
Kalutara 159697 178197 0.134 173560
Madurawala 34381 38364 0.029 37366
Mathugama 81286 90702 0.068 88342
Millaniya 52176 58220 0.044 56705
Palindanuwara 50801 56686 0.043 55211
Panadura 182285 203401 0.153 198109
Walallavita 54628 60956 0.046 59370
1221948 1363502 1.027 1328023

c) The Apportionment Method

2001 Kalutara District population according to census = 1066239

2012 Kalutara District population according to census = 1221948
2022 Kalutara District population according to Forecast= 1363502
(Forecast that used only 2001 and 2012 data with AGM)

Change in population to 2001 to 2012 in Kalutara District= 1221948-1066239

= 155709
Change in population to 2012 to 2022 in Kalutara District= 1363502-1221948
=141554
For Panadura,
2001 Panadura DSD population according to census = 163492
2012 Panadura DSD population according to census = 182285
Change in population to 2001 to 2012 in Panadura DSD = 182285-163492
= 18793
 Contribution of Panadura DSD to Kalutara District’s Growth= (18793/155709) *141554
= 17085
Panadura 2022 population = Panadura 2012 population+ Contribution of Panadura DSD
to Kalutara District’s Growth
= 182285 + 17085
= 199370
Like this I calculated for all other 13 DS Divisions, using excel.
DS Divsions Census for 2001 change(2001-2012) Census for 2012 change(2012-2002) projection 2022
Agalawatta 33962 2707 36669 2461 39130
Bandaragama 86886 22350 109236 20318 129554
Beruwala 144733 20236 164969 18396 183365
Bulathsinhala 59787 4813 64600 4375 68975
Dodangoda 55052 8908 63960 8098 72058
Horana 90690 22674 113364 20613 133977
Ingiriya 45726 8170 53896 7427 61323
Kalutara 141829 17868 159697 16244 175941
Madurawala 29750 4631 34381 4210 38591
Mathugama 73269 8017 81286 7288 88574
Millaniya 44476 7700 52176 7000 59176
Palindanuwara 45911 4890 50801 4445 55246
Panadura 163492 18793 182285 17085 199370
Walallavita 50676 3952 54628 3593 58221
1066239 155709 1221948 141554 1363502

d)
Here Kalutara growth model is Arithmetic Growth Model. So, in here I assume the
growth of the total population and each of the sub population is according to an
arithmetic growth pattern. First, I going to find growth rates for Kalutara District
and each DSD considering AGM.
For Kalutara District,
P2012 = P2001 + dt
1221948= 1066239+d*11
d = 14155.36364
For Panadura,
P2012 = P2001 + dt
182285=163492+d*11
d = 1708.454545
Like this using excel I calculate Growth rates for all DS Divisions.
DS Divsions Census for 2001 Census for 2012 Annual Growth Rate(d)
Agalawatta 33962 36669 246.0909091
Bandaragama 86886 109236 2031.818182
Beruwala 144733 164969 1839.636364
Bulathsinhala 59787 64600 437.5454545
Dodangoda 55052 63960 809.8181818
Horana 90690 113364 2061.272727
Ingiriya 45726 53896 742.7272727
Kalutara 141829 159697 1624.363636
Madurawala 29750 34381 421
Mathugama 73269 81286 728.8181818
Millaniya 44476 52176 700
Palindanuwara 45911 50801 444.5454545
Panadura 163492 182285 1708.454545
Walallavita 50676 54628 359.2727273

Then using growth rate l forecast population of Kalutara district and DS Divisions in
2022.
For Kalutara District,
P2022 = P2012 + dt
= 1221948+14155.36364*10
= 1363502
For Panadura,
P2022 = P2012 + dt
= 182285+170.8454545*10
= 199370

Like this using excel, I forecast population in2022 for all DS Divisions.
DS Divsions Census for 2001 Census for 2012 Annual Growth Rate(d) Forecast 2022
Agalawatta 33962 36669 246.0909091 39130
Bandaragama 86886 109236 2031.818182 129554
Beruwala 144733 164969 1839.636364 183365
Bulathsinhala 59787 64600 437.5454545 68975
Dodangoda 55052 63960 809.8181818 72058
Horana 90690 113364 2061.272727 133977
Ingiriya 45726 53896 742.7272727 61323
Kalutara 141829 159697 1624.363636 175941
Madurawala 29750 34381 421 38591
Mathugama 73269 81286 728.8181818 88574
Millaniya 44476 52176 700 59176
Palindanuwara 45911 50801 444.5454545 55246
Panadura 163492 182285 1708.454545 199370
Walallavita 50676 54628 359.2727273 58221
SUM 1066239 1221948 14155.36364 1363502

When we check the sum of forecasted DSD population it is tally with 1363502. So,
no adjustment needed.
e)
My one is AGM.
Part I
a)
I’m going to describe this life tables using male life table.
Age
0:(0-1) children that not completed their first birthday.
1:(1-4) population that complete their 1st birthday but that not completed 5th
birthday.
5:(5-9) population that complete their 5th birthday but that not completed 10th
birthday.
nmx

nmx is age specific death rate for age interval (x, x+n).
nmx = ndx/ nLx

ndx = Number of deaths in age interval (x, x+n)

nLx = Number of survivors lived in age interval (x, x + n)
in 0 age - nmx = ndx/ nLx = 882/99178 = 0.00889
in 1 age - nmx = ndx/ nLx = 123/396182 =0.00031
in 5 age - nmx = ndx/ nLx = 134/494644 =0.00027
nqx

probability of an individual age x dying before the end of the age interval (x, x + n)
nqx = ndx/ lx

ndx = Number of deaths in age interval (x, x+n)

lx = Number of survivors at age x in a life table with radix (starting population) of
100,000 persons
in 0 age - nqx = ndx/ lx= 882/100000 = 0.00882
in 1 age - nqx = ndx/ lx= 123/99118 = 0.00124
in 5 age - nqx = ndx/ lx= 134/98995 = 0.00135
lx
lx is number of survivors at age x in a life table with radix (starting population) of
100,000 persons.
in 0 age - lx= 100,000(starting population)
in 1 age - lx= l(x-n)-d(x-n) =100000- 882 = 99118
in 5 age - lx= l(x-n)-d(x-n) = 99118 – 123 = 98995
in 10 age - lx= l(x-n)-d(x-n) = 98995 – 134 = 98862
ndx

number of deaths in age interval (x, x + n)

nLx

number of survivors lived in age interval (x, x + n)

(l x + l x + n )
n
Lx = d (This equation didn’t give exact answer), d is the width of the data range
2

in 0 age - nLx = (100000+99118)/2 = 99559

in 1 age - nLx = ((99118+98995)/2) *4= 396226
in 5 age - nLx = ((98995+98862)/2) *5 = 494642
in 10 age - nLx = ((98862+98748)/2) *5 = 494025
nSx

nSx isthe proportion of the life table population in age group (x, x + n) who are
alive n years later.
in 0 age – nSx =
Value given is for survivorship of 5 cohorts of birth to age group 0‐4 = 5L0/500000

= (99178+396182)/500000
=0.99072
in 1 age – nSx =
Value given is for 5S0 = 5L5/5L0
= 494644/ (99178+396182)
= 0.99855
n
L x+n
n
Sx = n
Lx

This equation uses from age 5 to 75

in 5 age – nSx = 494026/494644 = 0.99875
in 10 age – nSx = 492912/494026 = 0.99775
Tx
Tx is number of persons‐years lived at ages x and older.
ex
ex is expectation of life at age x
ex = Tx/lx
in 0 age - ex = Tx/lx = 7321001/100000 = 73.2
in 1 age - ex = Tx/lx = 7221823/99118 = 72.9
in 5 age - ex = Tx/lx = 6825641/98995 = 68.9
b)
Male Mid Expected Female Mid Expected
Age Survival Ratio Age Survival Ratio
Population Male 2017 Population Female 2017
(1) (2) (3) (4)=(2)*(3) (1) (2) (3) (4)=(2)*(3)
0-4 50486 0.99072 0-4 49513 0.99275
5-9 52106 0.99875 50017 5-9 51169 0.99918 49154
10-14 47934 0.99775 52041 10-14 46318 0.99903 51127
15-19 45658 0.99569 47826 15-19 44645 0.99819 46273
20-24 41597 0.99498 45461 20-24 43879 0.99799 44564
25-29 43347 0.99437 41388 25-29 46303 0.9979 43791
30-34 49628 0.99297 43103 30-34 52002 0.99742 46206
35-39 43213 0.98862 49279 35-39 44746 0.99614 51868
40-44 41386 0.98055 42721 40-44 43174 0.99335 44573
45-49 37160 0.9688 40581 45-49 39201 0.98793 42887
50-54 34071 0.95612 36001 50-54 37442 0.98005 38728
55-59 29657 0.93636 32576 55-59 33860 0.96979 36695
60-64 26587 0.90184 27770 60-64 31410 0.95344 32837
65-69 19561 0.84463 23977 65-69 24476 0.91575 29948
70-74 12738 0.76457 16522 70-74 16932 0.85595 22414
75-79 8355 0.65261 9739 75-79 12497 0.75521 14493
80=< 7800 0.38739 5453 80=< 13097 0.44899 9438

c)
Female Mid Population Projected Female Mid ASFR per 1000 for 2017 Expected
Age 2012 Births
2012 Population 2017 2012 Births
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) = (2)*(4)/1000 (6) = (3)*(4)/1000
15-19 44645 46273 17.36 775 803
20-24 43879 44564 69.94 3069 3117
25-29 46303 43791 106.32 4923 4656
30-34 52002 46206 93.05 4839 4300
35-39 44746 51868 45.39 2031 2354
40-44 43174 44573 13.34 576 595
45-49 39201 42887 1.35 53 58
16266 15883

In 2012 Births = 16266

In 2017 expected Births = 15833
By 2017, all births (0-4age gap) in 2012 to 2017 = ((16266+15883)/2) *5 = 80373
d)
From 80373 all births (0-4 age gap),
Male Births = 80373*(105/205) = 41167
Female Births = 80373*(100/205) = 39206
Expected Male population in aged 5-9 in year 2022 = 0.99072*41167 = 40785
Expected Female population in aged 5-9 in year 2022 = 0.99275*39206 = 38922
Expected number of children population in aged 5-9 in year 2022 = 40785+38922
= 79707
Part J
a)
Year 1963 1971 1981 2001 2012
Year(x) 1 2 3.25 5.75 7.125
Population 631500 729500 829704 1066239 1221948

I didn’t get years(x) as 1, 2, 3, 4... Because time gaps of census periods are not equal.
I get different between 1963 and 1971, and according to that calculate the values
of future years.
(1971-1963) =8 -> 1
(1981-1971) =10-> (1/8) *10 = 1.25 So value of 1981 is 2+1.25 = 3.25
Like this I get x values.
When I use polynominal order 3 , factors of differential coefficient are complex
roots .So then I consider polynominal order 4 and do the calculation. In it R^2 = 1
so, I consider it is more suitable than polynominal order 3.
b)
y = -374.54x4 + 6974.7x3 - 41290x2 + 178665x + 487525
dy = 4*(-374.54) x3+ 3*6974.7 x2 – 2*41290 x +178665
dx
dy = -1498.16 x3+ 20924.1 x2- 82580 +178665
dx
When
dy = 0,
dx
x1 = 9.4786 (only considerable one is this one)
x2 = 2.24397 + i * 2.74704
x3 = 2.24397 - i * 2.74704
When x = 9.4786
Y= -374.54(9.4786)4 + 6974.7(9.4786)3 – 41290(9.4786)2 + 178665(9.4786) + 487525
Y= 1387722.318

population carrying capacity = 1387722.318

Period that reaches carrying capacity = x = 9.4786; =1963+(9.4786-1) *8= 2030.8288

After 67.8288 years from initial period (1963).

Then let’s get 2030 population using Logistic Population Model.

First let’s find r, considering the number of years that take to reach population
into the level of maximum carrying capacity.
P=P0ert
1387722.318 = 631500*e(r*67.8288)
r = 0.011607
t= 67
P (2030) = (631500*1387722.3)/ (631500+(1387722.3-631500) *e^ (67*0.011607)
= 1374436.058139
= 1374436
c)In 2030,
Maximum number of houses = Population/Average household size
=1374436/4
= 343609
d) In 2030,
Average water consumption per person per day = 150l
Average water consumption per person per week = 150*7 = 1050l
Water requirement per week demanded by these households = 1050*1374436
= 1443157800l

e) In 2030,
Average solid waste generation by a house per day = 10 kg
Average solid waste generation by a house per week = 7*10 =70kg
Average solid waste generation by the all households per week = 70*343609
= 24052630Kg

f)
First, we need to find existing facilities, to get 2021 population I use 2001,2012
data,
P2012 = P2001 + dt
First let’s find population growth rate using 2001 and 2012 data.
1221948= 1066239+d*11
d = 14155.36364
Then we can find population of 2021
P2021 = P2012 + dt
= 1221948+14155.36364*9
=1349346.27273
=1349346
Existing household number in 2021 (if average household size=4) =1349346/4
=337337
Existing water supply in 2021 per week (if water consumption per person per day
is 150l) =1349346*150*7
=1416813300l
Existing solid waste generation in 2021 by the all households per week (if average
solid waste generation by a house per day is 10 kg) =337337*10*7
=23613590kg

Existing Demand
Gap
2021 2030
Households 337337 343609
6272
Water consumption
1416813300l 1443157800l 26344500l
per week
Solid waste
23613590kg 24052630Kg 439040kg
generation per week

These are the infrastructure gaps between 2021, 2030. There will be an increase of
6272 households and according to that water consumption and solid waste
generation also will be increase. So, by 2030 we need to prepare for supply facilities
according to these infrastructure gaps. So, we need to increase those
infrastructures.