Special Problems for Urban and Regional Planning

Housing Demand in NCR

GROUP 6
Abo, Joshua
Bautista, Emman
Estrobo, Kathrine
Fallaria, Roxanne Kate
Inigo, Aj Rull
Lumabao, Myla
Medina, Jeho
Rivera, Lovely Joy
Sales, Romel
Progress
1. Heads up email response from DHSUD

(Email screenshot received on May 6, 2024)

The email was received by the public assistance office of DHSUD and have informed the researchers that the
requested datas will be forwarded to the respected office that can provide the informations.

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2. Letter Signed and Received in Admin Office of DHSUD (Department of Human Settlements and Urban
Development)

(Letter Received in the Admin Offive of DSHUD on Friday, May 3, 2024)

3. First Hand Data Gathered from DSHUD Office Via Online

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 PDF Files Received / Gathered Online

● The Dynamics of Housing Demand in the Philippines

● Clearing the Housing Backlog

The collected data from previous researches sent by the Department of Human Settlements and Urban Development
consists of several statistics and conclusions that will be beneficial to the studies of Housing Demand in the regions
in the Philippines of the summary of the whole country. However, detailed information on the Housing Demand of per
City in the area of NCR (National Capital Region) is not given.

Studies/ Data to gather:

Housing Demand* (Socialized, Economic, Low-Cost, Mid-cost, High-cost)

Housing Supply* (Socialized, Economic, Low-Cost, Mid-cost, High-cost)
* Data for each City and Municipality in the National Capital Region (NCR)

4. Progress of Review of Related Literature

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The Dynamics of Housing Demand in the Philippines

Paper Abstract:

“This paper examines the housing consumption pattern of Philippine households. Two basic issues are examined:
one, how is housing demand associated with income and demographic changes? and two, does the housing
consumption pattern of households suggest the presence of significant housing market imperfections or capital
market imperfections in the country?”

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According to this research by Ballesteros, the Philippine housing market suffers from a substantial disparity between
demand and supply, primarily due to the inability of most households to afford housing and land costs. Fueled by
speculative activities and development costs, land price escalation exacerbates the problem, leading to a continuous
rise in housing prices. To address this, policymakers must consider measures such as controlling land speculation,
promoting affordable housing, improving access to credit, and fostering rural economic development to mitigate
urban migration pressures.

Note: The information and statistics provided in this research paper might not be relevant anymore due to its
publication date and scope of research year which is around 1994, 1997 and early 2000.

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Clearing the Housing Backlog: An Updated Supply and Demand Study on Unserved Owner-driven Construction
Segment in the Philippines

Estimated Average Annual Housing Demand and Supply

According to the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) and Center for Research and Communication
(CRC), by 2018, there were over 5.6 million households in the unserved segment. Without significant intervention,
this figure could approach nearly 6 million by 2022, with an annual increase of 15,771 households or a compounded
annual growth rate of 0.27%. Considering deficits in the socialized, economic, and low-cost segments, the total
housing shortage in 2018 amounted to 5.71 million housing units.

Based on research spanning from 2001 to 2018, it's evident that a housing backlog persists across the socialized,
economic, and low-cost segments. The supply of housing units in these categories has consistently fallen short of
meeting the increasing demand, resulting in a deficit of approximately 5,714,706 units. Conversely, the mid-cost
housing market has experienced a surplus, with 377,434 excess units in 2018. Despite projected growth in
households entering this segment from 2019 onwards, the surplus is expected to persist, reaching close to 60,000
units by 2022.

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Looking ahead from 2019 to 2022, projections indicate a need for approximately 3,428,261 additional housing units,
considering segments beyond the unserved sector. This estimate is derived from the disparity between the total
backlog in socialized, economic, and low-cost sectors from 2001 to 2018, and the anticipated demand from 2019 to
2022, assuming no production during the latter period. Accounting for both the backlog from 2001 to 2018 and the
projected demand, including the unserved segment from 2019 to 2022, the total housing requirement is expected to
reach 15,076,255 units by 2022.

(Historical Trend of Each Housing Segment’s Percentage Share in Total Housing Production from
2001-2018Census)

Housing Backlog Per Segment (in Units) from 2001-2018 and Projected Housing Needs (in Units) from 2019
to 2022

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According to the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) and Center for Research and Communication
(CRC), from 2001 to 2018, the economic segment comprised the largest portion of the total housing supply at
41.42%. The mid-cost segment followed at 22.2%, then low-cost housing at 17.14%. The socialized segment
accounted for only 10.16% of the total housing supply, while the high-end segment was at 9.07%. This distribution
poses challenges in addressing the significant backlog in the socialized segment, as few developers are inclined to
cater to it.

Annual Percentage Share of Each Housing Segment in Total Housing Supply from 2001-2018

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According to the Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board (HLURB) and the Center for Research and
Communication (CRC), the share of socialized housing in total housing production has decreased from 14.19% in
2015 to 8.94% in 2018. Similarly, the economic segment has declined since 2014, from 41.90% to 34.02% in 2018,
nearing its lowest record of 32.57% in 2006. Conversely, the mid-cost segment is experiencing an upward trend.

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Percentage Share Distribution of Housing Tenure Status per Region based on the 2015

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Estimated ODC Segment per NCR City (2015-2022)

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Estimated Percentage Share of ODC Households and ODC Ratio per NCR City (2015-2022)

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Estimated Unserved Segment per NCR City (2015-2022)

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Initial thought from gathered data
1.) This price escalation in Housing is due to the land conversion process costs associated with development,
and speculative activities in land markets (Lea 1996). As a result, the cost of housing has continued to rise,
exacerbating the housing shortage in the Philippines.

● To address this issue, policymakers and urban planners need to consider implementing measures to control
land speculation and ensure equitable access to affordable housing. This might involve strategies such as
land use planning to optimize land utilization, regulations to prevent excessive price speculation, and
initiatives to promote affordable housing development for low-income families. Additionally, measures to
improve access to credit and housing finance for marginalized groups could also help alleviate the housing
shortage.

● Long-term solutions may also involve efforts to boost economic development in rural areas to reduce urban
migration pressures and alleviate the demand for housing in major cities like Manila. This could include
investments in infrastructure, agriculture, and small-scale industries to create employment opportunities and
improve living standards in rural communities.

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Conclusion

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Documentation

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