Parameters

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CLIMATE VARIABILITY
& EL NINO

What is Climate Variability?

In the media these days there is much talk of global warming and climate change (Ref 1). But
what do we mean exactly by climate change? The climate of the Earth is not fixed and is
always changing. In the past it has altered as a result of natural causes. But nowadays, we are
concerned that the Earth’s climate is also being altered as a result of human behaviour. What
we don’t know is how much of any variability in the climate is due to natural causes and how
much is due to human behaviour. Both factors are undoubtedly at play, but scientists are not
agreed on their relative influence.

The term climate change is often used when referring to changes in our climate that
have been identified since the early part of the 1900’s. These changes are thought by many
scientists to be mainly as a result of human behaviour rather than due to natural changes in the
atmosphere. So the ‘climate change’ infers a ‘shift’ in our climate.

The term ‘climate variability’ on the other hand is used more when referring to
changes or variability in our climate from natural causes. Such variability is considered over
many different timescales (from a few to many thousands of years) – see Ref 6.

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 Figure 1

The focus in the media is mostly on human influences and climate change. Natural climate
variability receives far less attention, but is an important element also to consider. We discuss it
more below.

Climate Change

The greenhouse effect in the Earth’s atmosphere is what keeps the Earth warm. It is
the extra greenhouse gases that humans have released which are thought to pose the strongest
threat to our climate. Now go to the BBC web site (Ref 1) on ‘Climate’ for an explanation of
the greenhouse effect.

There is a concern that the increase in greenhouse gases will raise temperatures
worldwide. There is also a growing concern amongst some scientists that changes to the climate
may not be gradual but may suddenly change (a step function) within the time frame as short as
just one or two decades. The complicated feedback loops between the atmosphere and the
oceans could be affected – in particular the global conveyor belt (see earlier module on Ocean
Circulation) in the oceans may slow down. If that were to happen then it could (for example)
have a step change influence on the climate of Western Europe. The warmth from the Gulf
Stream could diminish and induce a big freeze. This possibility was addressed in a recent BBC
TV Horizon Programme called “The Big Chill” – see the transcript in Ref 2.

For more information on long term climate prediction and research, take a look at the
Hadley Centre web site at: http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/
[Accessed 29/1/08].

Climate Variability

What do the historical record tells about natural changes in the climate - that is before human
influences became significant? Reasonably accurate (onshore) meteorological measurements
only go back around a 100 years or so, so use needs to be made of historical records, tree rings,
ice cores and sediments – see Ref 6.

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 Figure 2

A classic example of climate variability for those from a European background is the
“Little Ice Age’. To quote from Ref 5:

“…………….Colder temperatures, increased storminess, and significant advances of

alpine glaciers (beginning around 1450 and ending around 1850), characterized the
climatic event. Historic documents from Europe, including cod fishery and sea-ice
reports for the 17th and 18th centuries, indicate sea surface temperatures were 3° to
5oC below the modern mean. Ice floes penetrated south well beyond their normal
extent and the European coastline repeatedly was pummelled by torrential windstorms

…….Historic records from northern Switzerland, Germany, the Czech Republic,

northern Italy, Hungary, Poland, and Spain – records that span most of the 16 th
century – indicate that during all seasons, and in all regions, temperature dropped
markedly during the 1500’s. The onset of warmer and drier conditions during the mid-
1800s caused the retreat of alpine glaciers. By the early 1900s, climatic conditions
were similar to those of the present day……………………….”

The article goes on to examine conditions globally during this period.

The key message here is that our climate has varied significantly in the recent past –
quite naturally, even before with think about adding any man-made influences. So, looking to
the near future it is not unreasonable for further significant variations to occur – also quite
naturally. Relative to the timescales of natural variations in our climate, the human lifespan is
indeed short. So our experience of what we perceive as ‘extreme’ or ‘unusual’ conditions may
be not so unusual after all.

What causes the Earth’s climate to vary naturally? In fact there are quite a number of
variables influencing the Earth’s climate, having different timescales and periodicities. Below
are some examples:

Milankovitch cycles: These are periodic variations in the Earth’s position in space and
have a relatively important influence of the Earth's climate system. The cycles alter both the
amount and distribution of heat that the Earth receives from the Sun, and it is thought that these
variations certainly induce climate variability and may even be the cause of the periodic glacial
and interglacial cycles. Milankovitch cycles consist of three components: eccentricity, obliquity,
and precession. More details may be found in Ref 7.

Solar activity: The Sun itself is another external forcing function affecting the Earth’s
climate system. As Sun’s activity varies, the Earth experiences variations in the amount of
energy it receives. Sunspots are an indicator of solar variability. They are dark, cool areas on the

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 Sun, abundant when the Sun is active, and follow an approximate 11 year cycle. It is thought
that decreased solar activity was one of the contributory factors inducing the Little Ice Age
(already discussed above).

Figure 3. Variations in insolation from the Sun. Source: Ref 7 [Accessed 29/1/08]

Volcanoes: Another influence is volcanoes. Perhaps one of the best known climatic
alterations due to a volcanic eruption is the year 1816; the "year without a summer", following
the 1815 Tambora eruption on Sumbawa Island in Indonesia. Tambora is one of the largest
known eruptions in the past 10,000 years. Studies indicate that the 1816 summer was
approximately 1.5 °C cooler than the summer of 1815. The year following the eruption was one
of hardship felt across the globe. The summer was cold and wet in Western Europe, crops
failed, people starved, disease spread and social unrest grew. More details are in Ref 7.

What is “El Niño” - and Who is His Sister “La Nina”?

Now let’s look at a

variation in the
world’s climate
that occur every
few years - El Niño
and La Nina.

They are
disruptions of

Figure 4. Cartoon of the El

Nino-La Nina Roller Coaster
the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific. They have important knock-on
consequences for weather around the globe [Accessed 29/1/08]. Figure 5 (see next page)
shows a generalisation of the impact relative to normal (i.e. average) conditions. We can see
that during an El Nino episode, conditions are dryer than normal over Australia, Indonesia and
the Caribbean. In a La Nina episode, the opposite conditions occur.

Figure 5: Impact of El Nino on Weather around the Globe.

http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/gif/summer_winter1-nns.gif [Accessed 29/1/08]

Let’s first start with the origin of the names. As explained in Ref 8:

“………El Niño was originally recognized by fisherman off the coast of South America as the
appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific ocean, occurring near the beginning of the
year. El Niño means The Little Boy or Christ child in Spanish. This name was used for the
tendency of the phenomenon… "a warm event" … to arrive around Christmas. In contrast,……
"a cold event" ……… is known as La Niña, meaning The Little Girl.”

There is one more term we need to know about – the El Nino/Southern Oscillation.
The Southern Oscillation is the see-saw pattern of reversing surface air pressure between the
eastern and western tropical Pacific; when the surface pressure is high in the eastern tropical
Pacific it is low in the western tropical Pacific, and vice-versa. Because the ocean warming and
pressure reversals are, for the most part, simultaneous, the phenomenon is called the El
Nino/Southern Oscillation or ENSO for short – see Ref 9.

During an El Nino event, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is low, while during a
La Nina it is high. Figure 6 shows the SOI index since 1950; notice the strong El Nino events in
1982 and 1997, and the prolonged El Nino conditions during the early 1990’s. It is the

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predominance of El Nino conditions during the whole of the 1990’s which some believe is a
clear indicator that global warming is indeed inducing climate change (see Ref 11).

Figure 6: Southern Oscillation Index.

Source: http://www.john-daly.com/elnino.htm [Accessed 29/1/08]

El Niño: Ref 10 summarises the changes to the atmosphere and ocean circulation during El
Niño events. They include:

▪ Warmer than normal ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific
Ocean.

▪ Increased convection or cloudiness in the central tropical Pacific Ocean - the focus of
convection migrates from the Australian/Indonesian region eastward towards the central
tropical Pacific Ocean.

▪ Weaker than normal (easterly) trade winds [Accessed 29/1/08].

▪ Low (negative) values of the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) [Accessed 29/1/08]

While during a La Niña event they include:

 Cooler than normal ocean temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific
Ocean.

 Increased convection or cloudiness over tropical Australia, Papua New-Guinea, and

Indonesia.

 Stronger than normal (easterly) trade winds across the Pacific Ocean (but not
necessarily in the Australian region).

 High (positive) values of the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index).

Now go to the animation in Ref 12 for a pictorial presentation of El Nino and La Nina.

We are not finished yet. El Nino and La Nina occur in the Pacific; because the Pacific is so
large, changes there have an extensive impact on the surrounding areas and on the World’s
weather. There are also similar types of oscillations in the other oceans – like the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO).

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 Figure 7. NAO Index. Source: http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/ [Accessed 29/1/08]

Now go to References 13 and 14 for a detailed description of the NAO.

Figure 8. El Nino Cartoon

What’s the Relevance?

So, what is the relevance of climate variability? Well, if the metocean data collected
at a remote location is of limited duration (say one year), then on its own it may not be
sufficiently representative to use to derive metocean design criteria or operational statistics. For
example, El Nino conditions tend to weaken the Northeast Monsoon in the South China Sea.
This means that wind, wave and current measurements collected during an El Nino year will
not be representative of the longer term climate. In statistical terms, the sample is not
representative of the parent population.

As we have seen above, climate variability is on many different timescales of a few

years to many thousands of years. The Metocean Engineer is looking to derive metocean
statistics appropriate for Field design lives ranging from 20 to 80 years, and so will consider
climate variability effects over these relatively short timescales. As climate variability in the
future is not predictable, then the variability in the most recent past is considered. This is
possible by reverting to numerical modelling and hindcasting. Hindcasting (weather
forecasting backwards in time) is discussed more in Step 4. Essentially it is using a numerical
model to build up a long term metocean database of say 30 to 50 years for an area or region;
field measurements collected over short periods of one or two years are used to calibrate and
validate the numerical models.

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 It is a combination of measured and hindcast data for the previous 30 to 50 years that are
used by the Metocean Engineer to derive the required metocean statistics - climate statistics for
operational planning purposes and extreme event metocean criteria for design. The assumption
made is that the variability seen over the last 30 to 50 years will be representative of the
variability to be expected over the next 20 to 80 years.

Why and Where Does it Matter for Shell?

Shell needs metocean statistics for operational planning and design purposes,
appropriate for the intended field operational life. This means taking account of climate
variability effects as far as is realistically possible and necessary to do so – in the way discussed
in the section above.

An example of climate variability with direct implications is the variation in the wave climate in
the orthern North Sea over the last decade or so.

Figure 9, Change in Wave severity in the 1990’s (Ref 14 and 15)

From the late 1980’s to the end of the 1990’s, the January to March season has become
noticeably rougher (see Figure 9). As a consequence, the potential for weather downtime in the
Northern North Sea has increased significantly compared to the 1970’s and early to mid 1980’s.

Analysis has shown that there is a linkage between the increased roughness with the
behaviour of the North Atlantic
Oscillation (Figure 10) but at the
moment is not clear if the
roughness pattern is cyclic or a
trend. More details on the results
of this study may be found in
(Ref 14 and 15).

Figure 10 Relationship NAO Index

and Northern North Sea Wave
Severity (Ref 14)

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Want to learn more?

 Search the web for relevant sites.

 Refer to relevant books and publications in your OU or local library.

 Post any questions in the Q&A area in TeleTOP.

References

1. BBC Web Site, “Climate Change”, http://www.bbc.co.uk/climate/ [Accessed 28/1/08]

2. BBC Web Site, Horizon: “The Big Chill”,

http://www.bbc.co.uk/science/horizon/2003/bigchill.shtml [Accessed 28/1/08]

3. UK Met Office, Hadley Centre, http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/

[Accessed 28/1/08]

4. Are We on the Brink of a 'New Little Ice Age? Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,
http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=12455&tid=282&cid=10046 [Accessed 28/1/08]

5. Green Earth Society, “Little Ice Age – a Global Event”,

http://www.greeningearthsociety.org/Articles/2001/hockey1.htm [Accessed 28/1/08]

6. GZF Potsdam, Natural Climate Variations during the Halocene, http://www.gfz-

potsdam.de/pb3/pg33/kihzhome/kihz01/02einleitung_en.html#Cold%20phases
[Accessed 28/1/08]

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 7. University of Minnesota, Natural impacts on the Climate,
http://www.geo.umn.edu/courses/1001/climate_natural.html [Accessed 28/1/08]

8. NOAA, What is El Nino? http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/el-nino-story.html

[Accessed 28/1/08]

9. NOAA, Making Sense of the Weather – El Nino,

http://kids.earth.nasa.gov/archive/nino/intro.html [Accessed 28/1/08]

10. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Climate Glossary, SOI,

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/glossary/soi.shtml [Accessed 28/1/08]

11. NOAA, NCDC, Are El Nino’s linked to Global Warming?

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/globalwarming.html#Q4 [Accessed 28/1/08]

12. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, El Nino – La Nina animation,

http://www.bom.gov.au/lam/Students_Teachers/elnanim/elani.shtml [Accessed
28/1/08]

13. US Columbia University, North Atlantic Oscillation,

http://www.ldeo.columbia.edu/res/pi/NAO/ [Accessed 28/1/08]

14. Inter-Agency Committee on Marine Science and Technology “Waves - Short- and
long-term non-seasonal variability”, Figure 9, 2004,
http://www.oceannet.org/medag/reports/IACMST_reports/MCP_report/ch_waves/
MCPreport_waves#waves_sub4 [Accessed 28/1/08]

15. Leggett, I., F.L. Beiboer, M.J. Osborne and I. Bellamy (1996). Long-term metocean
measurements in the northern North Sea. Pp 1 to 9 in Climate change offshore N.W.
Europe, SUT, London.

16. The El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), John L. Daly,

http://www.john-daly.com/elnino.htm [Accessed 29/1/08]

Additional Resources

Lyndon State College, North Atlantic Oscillation,

http://apollo.lsc.vsc.edu/classes/met430/viberts/pres3/NAO.html [Accessed 28/1/08]

NOAA El Nino page: http://www.elnino.noaa.gov/ [Accessed 28/1/08]

El Nino Cartoons http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/lib/elninolinks/ [Accessed 28/1/08]

National Geographic, http://www.nationalgeographic.com/elnino/mainpage.html

[Accessed 28/1/08]

NOAA, El Nino and Climate Prediction, http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/report/el-

nino-report.html [Accessed 28/1/08]

NASA, JPL, El Nino, http://topex-www.jpl.nasa.gov/education/Page3.pdf [Accessed

28/1/08]

An Introduction to Climate Change, http://ess.geology.ufl.edu/ [Accessed 28/1/08]

ENSO and Climate Variability, http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/MET/Enso/enso/enso.html

[Accessed 28/1/08]

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