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PICTET
Asser Management
MEGATRENDS ‘Marketing Material
January 2024
Seven trends to watch in 2024
The key trends to look out for in science, technology and
sustainability over the next 12 months - and beyond.
Written by
Stephen Freedman
1, Generative AI goes professional
Generative AI dominated the headlines in 2023, and fuelled strong gains in
tech stocks, Now that the hype of the new technology has died down, the
next challenge for developers is how to monetise it. Companies are
increasingly looking to embrace technology to improve efficiency and
become cost effective, creating strong demand for professional applications
of generative AI. It probably won't steal your job ~ after all, generative AI
requires human input for initiation and subsequent refinement and fact
checking - but it could make you more productive. Microsoft's GitHub
Copilot is the best scaled example of generative AI in software today. In a
study released by Microsoft, developers coding with it were more
productive, delivering improved output in 55 per cent less time, all for
around USD100 a year for their “co-pilot” subscription. Salesforce,
meanwhile, has recently launched Einstein Copilot, whose skills include
generating marketing emails, providing personalised answers to customer
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questions and summarising calls. That's just the beginning: across all
industries, three-quarters of companies expect to be using AI by 2027.!
2. Deep fakes challenge cyber security
While generative AI might make us more productive, it can also
disseminate harmful disinformation. Deep fakes ~ media which simulate
family, friends, bosses or colleagues via video or audio calls - are ever easier
to create and ever harder to spot. And it’s not just calls: with the help of Al,
;hly personalised spear-phishing en
well-targeted, I Is which deploy
malware are already starting to replace clumsy generic text and PDFs.
Ransomware attacks have risen significantly since the launch of generative
AI, as malware becomes much quicker to create. This poses a big challenge
for the cyber security industry, On the flip side, the growing threat is likely
to lead to more investment, spurned on by regulatory pressure. We are
likely to see a rise in zero trust solutions that continuously verify the
credentials of individuals interacting with an organisation, both internally
and externally. Al may also be part of the solution, as the cyber security
industry adapts large language models (LLMs) to detect attacks more
quickly and to counter potential threats from malicious code written by
other machines.
3. Climate change battle heats up
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Keay trends for 2024
In the battle against climate change, much of the focus so far has been on
mitigation ~ cutting greenhouse gas emissions and removing the carbon
that’s already in the atmosphere. But as temperatures continue to rise, it’s
becoi
1g clear that mitiga
n is not working fast enough. To survive, we
will need to adapt to the higher temperatures and ever more frequent
extreme weather such as droughts, floods and hurricanes. At the COP28
conference in Dubai in November last year, countries agreed on targets for
the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), although there are still question
marks over how those efforts will be funded. The annual financing
shortfall for adaptation is running at USD36 billion, according to the UN
Environment Programme (UNEP).” The private sector will have a key part
to play in plugging that gap. And the opportunities are diverse, including
growing crops that can survive droughts and thrive in a changing climate,
developing climate-resilient infrastructure, constructing flood defences,
designing heat-reflecting buildings, leveraging big data to better predict
the next extreme weather event or setting up early warning systems. With
2024 likely to set new weather records* adaption will be a major priority.
T9
It's becoming clear that climate change mitigation is
not working fast enough. To survive, we will need to
adapt to higher temperatures and extreme climate
events.
4, The high rise of green buildings
As more of us move into cities, we need more buildings to live, work and
have fun in, Historically, construction has been problematic for the planet:
the real estate sector accounts for around 40 per cent of global carbon
emissions and the construction process can also generate a lot of waste.
That is now changing thanks to innovations in technology and building
materials. For example, Building Information Modelling (BIM) software
enables digital modelling and analysis across the lifecycle of buildings and
infrastructure from planning and design to construction and operations.
BIM not only incorporates tools to analyse environmental factors such as
energy, thermal and lighting but can also facilitate pre-fabrication which
improves build efficiency. And, inside buildings, technology is also helping
to reduce emissions and maximise comfort, such as through better
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Key tends for 2026
insulation or IoT connected lighting and building control systems. Global
investment in energy efficiency of buildings has increased from USD140
ated USD190
billion in 2015 to an esi
n in 2021, according to the
International Energy Agency.
s disease
5. Glimmers of hope for Alzhi
Alzheimer's disease has confounded scientists for decades. It affects nearly
30 million people worldwide, as well as their families who often provide
care. The burden is expected to increase as the population ages.
wwe are finally seeing some signs of progress in treatment and
Fortunat
ics. US authorities ha
diagno: recently approved an Alzheimer’s drug
from Eisai/Biogen, and the companies’ subcutaneous formulati
n which
could be easier to administer is also expected to be filed for approval. In
the coming year, all eyes are on
/Biog
focus on the removal of a protein called amyloid beta from the brain.
he launch of the newly approved therapies,
's Iecanemab and Eli Lilly's donanemab. These new therapies
Additionally, as tools such as blood-based diagnostics become available,
that in the future Alzheimer's nts may be able to
the hope se p
begin treatment earlier in the disease progression that in turn could lead
to better outcomes.
eT
Seem et
ee gaa
pores
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Key tends for 2026
6. Active lifestyle back in fashion
New Year health and fitness resolutions often falter after a few weeks or
even days. But there is a growing evidence that the desire to lead a more
active life is more than a seasonal fad. Covid underscored the importance
of overall good health, and also gave many people the time to embrace new
hobbies. A few years on, the fitness industry continues to thrive, with gyms
taking over empty retail sites on the High Street and strong appetite for
increasingly advanced gadgets to track and encourage progress. In the
Paris could add fresh momentum to the drive
coming year, the Olympi
for active lifestyles and healthier food. Meanwhile, the success of a new
breed of weight loss drugs designed to mimic the glucagon-like peptide 1
(GLP-1) hormone, like Wegovy, could further increase demand for healthy
lifestyles. Having lost weight, people may find exercise more accessible and
may also be more committed to staying fit.
7. The experience economy on the rise
In both US and Europe, spending on recreation and cultural activities has
been growing more than twice as fast as the wider economy. Research
suggests that spending money on experiences versus material goods can
can be shared with
others. Technology is opening up new ways to interact, including through
virtual reality and esports, But offline, too, there is growing demand for
experiences, including in retail and tourism. The travel boom seen in the
last couple of years is expected to continue in 2024, aided by live
translation devices and generative Al-designed itineraries. Shared
provide more enduring happiness as those experiences
experiences are also becoming an increasing priority for authorities, with
the US Surgeon General warning that loneliness poses risks as deadly as
smoking.
(0) buns wwweforum.org/agenda/2023/05/furure-ofobs-technology-skills- workplace
(2) hugpsnwwrn reuters com /sstainability/sustainablefinance-reportng(climate adaptation.
eap-S0-higher-than-estimated-un-says-2023-1102,
(3) harps metofice gv.uk/sbout.us/prss-ofice/ncus/weather-and.cimatc/2023/2024-fist
chance-of yearahove- Sc-savclimate-scicotsts
fandi
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About
Mega
Mega seeks to energise and enrich the debate
over how to create a better-functioning
economy and society.
Megatrends are the powerful socio-economic,
environmental and technological forces that
shape our planet. The digitisation of the
economy, the rapid expansion of cities and the
depletion of the Earth's natural resources are just
some of the structural trends transforming the
way countries are governed, companies are run
and people live their lives.
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