b

Construction cost Opponents’ bids ($1,000)

Project No.
($1,000) B1 B2 B3 B4

j c b
1 98 103 102
2 555 584 575 586
3 244 264 256
4 988 1043 1034 1041 1053
5 718 760 755 796
6 308 348 327
7 201 203 208 205
8 481 484 488 505 491
9 413 447 438 410
10 1250 1255 1258 1248 1233
11 780 795 767
12 60 85 45 72
13 1510 1530 1495 1533
14 430 445 417
15 625 630 633 623 608
16 830 855 815 842
17 855 875 840 878
18 964 979 951
19 1380 1405 1365 1392
20 320 325 328 318 303
 PR:

1 Simulasikan LBC + a very small number

2 Step 3. Ia E (2) P (2)

Step 3. Ib E (2) P (2)

3 Buatlah grafik sesuai dengan simulasi FBC = LBC - e

P (win) vs % markup

E (profit) vs %Markup

4 Gabungkan grafik LBC-e dan LBC+e

nilai P (win) LBC-e dan LBC+e digabungkan dahulu,

lalu diurutkan

baru dibuat grafik

 STEP 1 STEP 2

e =0.0001
Lowest bid LBC LBC
FBC (1)
b/c b/c j c LBC - e
102 1.0408 1.041 6 308 1.0407
575 1.0360 1.036 5 718 1.0359
256 1.0492 1.049 3 244 1.0491
1034 1.0466 1.047 4 988 1.0465
755 1.0515 1.052 1 98 1.0514
327 1.0617 1.062 2 555 1.0616
203 1.0100 1.010 7 201 1.0099
484 1.0062 1.006 8 481 1.0061
410 0.9927 0.993 9 413 0.9926
1233 0.9864 0.986 13 1510 0.9863
767 0.9833 0.983 19 1380 0.9832
45 0.7500 0.750 18 964 0.7499
1495 0.9901 0.990 10 1250 0.9900
417 0.9698 0.970 11 780 0.9697
608 0.9728 0.973 17 855 0.9727
815 0.9819 0.982 16 830 0.9818
840 0.9825 0.982 15 625 0.9824
951 0.9865 0.987 14 430 0.9864
1365 0.9891 0.989 20 320 0.9890
303 0.9469 0.947 12 60 0.9468

13010
 DICARI?

E (profit) vs %Markup
140.00

120.00
115.78
115.14
105.36
104.90
100.00 99.7295.93
99.1996.40

80.00

60.00 62.59
62.33
52.97
52.77
40.00
34.22
33.54
24.63
23.85
20.00 11

0.00
-0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.06
-20.00
-30.80
-31.66
-40.00

E (profit) vs %Markup

P (win) vs % markup
120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%
-0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.06

P (win) vs % markup
 STEP 3. Ia

FBC (2) FBC = LBC - ε

LBC + e kum C FBC-1 E n P
1.0409 308 0.0407 12.54 1 5%
1.0361 1026 0.0359 36.87 2 10%
1.0493 1270 0.0491 62.33 3 15%
1.0467 2258 0.0465 104.90 4 20%
1.0516 2356 0.0514 121.17 5 25%
1.0618 2911 0.0616 179.28 6 30%
1.0101 3112 0.0099 30.65 7 35%
1.0063 3593 0.0061 22.05 8 40%
0.9928 4006 -0.0074 -29.50 9 45%
0.9865 5516 -0.0137 -75.57 10 50%
0.9834 6896 -0.0168 -115.62 11 55%
0.7501 7860 -0.2501 -1965.79 12 60%
0.9902 9110 -0.0100 -91.41 13 65%
0.9699 9890 -0.0303 -299.99 14 70%
0.9729 10745 -0.0273 -293.34 15 75%
0.9820 11575 -0.0182 -210.34 16 80%
0.9826 12200 -0.0176 -215.26 17 85%
0.9866 12630 -0.0136 -171.58 18 90%
0.9892 12950 -0.0110 -142.06 19 95%
0.9470 13010 -0.0532 -692.46 20 100%

179.28
 RECOMMENDED MARKUP? = 0.0099
EXPECTED PROFIT = 30.65

FBC FBC-1 E n P
1.0618 0.0618 19.03 0 0%
1.0616 0.0616 18.97 1 10%
105.36
104.90 1.0516 0.0516 52.97 0 0%
.40
.93
1.0514 0.0514 52.77 2 20%
62.59
62.33 1.0493 0.0493 62.59 0 0%
52.97
52.77
1.0491 0.0491 62.33 3 30%
19.03
18.97 1.0467 0.0467 105.36 0 0%
00 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700 1.0465 0.0465 104.90 4 40%
1.0409 0.0409 96.40 0 0%
1.0407 0.0407 95.93 5 50%
1.0376 0.0376 99.72 0 0%
1.0374 0.0374 99.19 6 60%
1.0361 0.0361 115.78 0 0%
1.0359 0.0359 115.14 7 70%
1.0101 0.0101 34.22 0 0%
1.0099 0.0099 33.54 8 80%
1.0063 0.0063 24.63 0 0%
1.0061 0.0061 23.85 9 90%
0.9928 -0.0072 -30.80 0 0%
0.9926 -0.0074 -31.66 10 100%
00 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700
P 3. Ia STEP 3. Ib

FBC = LBC + ε FBC = LBC - ε

FBC-1 E n P n FBC-1 E
0.0409 12.60 0 0% 1 0.0407 0.041
0.0361 37.08 0 0% 2 0.0359 0.072
0.0493 62.59 0 0% 3 0.0491 0.147
0.0467 105.36 0 0% 4 0.0465 0.186
0.0516 121.65 0 0% 5 0.0514 0.257
0.0618 179.87 0 0% 6 0.0616 0.370
0.0101 31.28 0 0% 7 0.0099 0.069
0.0063 22.77 0 0% 8 0.0061 0.049
-0.0072 -28.70 0 0% 9 -0.0074 -0.066
-0.0135 -74.47 0 0% 10 -0.0137 -0.137
-0.0166 -114.24 0 0%
-0.2499 -1964.21 0 0%
-0.0098 -89.59 0 0%
-0.0301 -298.01 0 0%
-0.0271 -291.19 0 0%
-0.0180 -208.03 0 0%
-0.0174 -212.82 0 0%
-0.0134 -169.06 0 0%
-0.0108 -139.47 0 0%
-0.0530 -689.86 0 0%

179.87 total proyek = 20 0.370

0.0101 0.0099
31.28 0.069

FBC n FBC-1 E
1.0618 0 0.0618 0.000
1.0616 1 0.0616 0.062
1.0516 0 0.0516 0.000
1.0514 2 0.0514 0.103
1.0493 0 0.0493 0.000
1.0491 3 0.0491 0.147
1.0467 0 0.0467 0.000
1.0465 4 0.0465 0.186
1.0409 0 0.0409 0.000
1.0407 5 0.0407 0.204
1.0376 0 0.0376 0.000
1.0374 6 0.0374 0.225
1.0361 0 0.0361 0.000
1.0359 7 0.0359 0.252
1.0101 0 0.0101 0.000
1.0099 8 0.0099 0.079
1.0063 0 0.0063 0.000
1.0061 9 0.0061 0.055
0.9928 0 -0.0072 0.000
0.9926 10 -0.0074 -0.074
 STEP 3. Ib E (profit) vs %Markup
0.400

0.300
BC - ε FBC = LBC + ε
0.200
P n FBC-1 E P
0.100
10% 1 0.0409 0.041 10%
20% 2 0.0361 0.072 20% -0.0200 -0.0100
0.000
0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400

30% 3 0.0493 0.148 30% -0.100

40% 4 0.0467 0.187 40% -0.200

50% 5 0.0516 0.258 50% E (profit) vs %Markup

60% 6 0.0618 0.371 60%

E (profit) vs %Markup
70% 7 0.0101 0.070 70%
200.00
80% 8 0.0063 0.051 80%
90% 9 -0.0072 -0.064 90%
100% 10 -0.0135 -0.135 100% 150.00

0.37

100.00

50.00

0.00
-0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400

-50.00

total proyek = 20
-100.00

E (profit) vs %Markup
 -50.00

-100.00

E (profit) vs %Markup

P E (profit) vs %Markup
0% 0.300

10% 0.250

0%
0.200
20%
0.150
0%
0.100
30%
0.050
0%
0.000
40% -0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700

-0.050
0%
50% -0.100

E (profit) vs %Markup
0%
60%
P (win) vs % markup
0% 120%

70%
100%
0%
80% 80%

0% 60%

90%
40%
0%
100% 20%

0%
-0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700

P (win) vs % markup
 P (win) vs % markup
ofit) vs %Markup 120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700 20%

0%
-0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500

P (win) vs % markup
E (profit) vs %Markup

ofit) vs %Markup P (win) vs % markup

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%
0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700

10%

0%
-0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500

E (profit) vs %Markup P (win) vs % markup

 10%

0%
-0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500

E (profit) vs %Markup P (win) vs % markup

500 0.0600 0.0700

00 0.0600 0.0700
% markup

0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700

s % markup

markup

0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700

s % markup
0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700

s % markup
 Project
LBC FBC P[Win|FBC] E[V|FBC]
No.
j b/c
1 1.04082 1.04081 31.81% 0.0130
2 1.03604 1.03603 38.41% 0.0138
3 1.04918 1.04917 21.64% 0.0106
4 1.04656 1.04655 24.61% 0.0115
5 1.05153 1.05152 19.16% 0.0099
6 1.06169 1.06168 10.56% 0.0065
7 1.00995 1.00994 75.08% 0.0075
8 1.00624 1.00623 79.26% 0.0049
9 0.99274 0.99273 90.63% -0.0066
10 0.98640 0.98639 94.00% -0.0128

P (win) vs
PR Method II
94.00% 100.00%
1. nilai P 90.63%
2. Nilai E 90.00%
79.26%
80.00% 75.08%
3. Grafik P (win) vs % markup
E (profit) vs %Markup 70.00%
60.00%
50.00%
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
-0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200

P (win
 FBC-1

%Markup
0.0408 Mean 1.028 LBC
0.0360 Standard deviation 0.027 LBC
0.0492
0.0465 FBC 1.0308 solver FBC untuk max E (profit)
0.0515 P[Win|FBC] 45.98% folows a normal distribution
0.0617 E[V|FBC] 0.0142
0.0099
0.0062 *Nilai di area merah ini adalah yang paling efektif daripada di Grafik
-0.0073
-0.0136

P (win) vs % markup E (profit) vs %

0.0200

79.26% 0.0150
75.08%
0.0100 0.0075
0.0049
0.0050
38.41% 0.0000
31.81% -0.0200 -0.0100 0.0000 0.0100 0.0200 0
24.61% -0.0066
-0.0050
21.64%
19.16%
10.56% -0.0128 -0.0100

-0.0150
0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700
E (profit) vs
P (win) vs % markup
 E (profit) vs %Markup

0.01380.0130
0.0115
0.0106
0.0099
0.0075 0.0065
0.0049

0000 0.0100 0.0200 0.0300 0.0400 0.0500 0.0600 0.0700

E (profit) vs %Markup
Project Construction Opponents’ bids ($1,000)
No. cost ($1,000) B1 B2 B3 B4
j c b b/c
1 98 103 102 1.0510 1.0408
2 555 584 575 586 1.0523 1.0360
3 244 264 256 1.0820 1.0492
4 988 1043 1034 1041 1053 1.0557 1.0466
5 718 760 755 796 1.0585 1.0515
6 308 348 327 1.1299 1.0617
7 201 203 208 205 1.0100 1.0348
8 481 484 488 505 491 1.0062 1.0146
9 413 447 438 410 1.0823 1.0605
10 1250 1255 1258 1248 1233 1.0040 1.0064
10 10
b/c
K 30

1.0559 mean 1.0429

stdev 0.0333
1.0536 1.0658

1.1086

Friedman's m 1 4 7

1.0199 FBC 1.0450 1.0240 1.0179 SOLVER!

1.0499 1.0208 P[Win|FBC] 0.4747 0.2614 0.1651

0.9927 E[V|FBC] 0.0241 0.0071 0.0033 max E

0.9984 0.9864
7 3
30 Gates' m 1 4 7
FBC 1.0450 1.0310 1.0266 SOLVER!
P[Win|FBC] 0.4747 0.3070 0.2389
E[V|FBC] 0.0241 0.0108 0.0072 max E
 1 KOLOM SAJA
Friedman's
p(WIN)
B/C FBC % MARKUP 1 4 7 B/C FBC

1.1299 1.1298 0.1298 0.0045 0.0000 0.0000 1.1299 1.1298

1.1086 1.1085 0.1085 0.0242 0.0000 0.0000 1.1086 1.1085

1.0853 1.0852 0.0852 0.1014 0.0001 0.0000 1.0853 1.0852

1.0823 1.0822 0.0822 0.1183 0.0002 0.0000 1.0823 1.0822

1.0820 1.0819 0.0819 0.1204 0.0002 0.0000 1.0820 1.0819

1.0751 1.0750 0.0750 0.1671 0.0008 0.0000 1.0751 1.0750

1.0683 1.0682 0.0682 0.2235 0.0025 0.0000 1.0683 1.0682

1.0658 1.0657 0.0657 0.2463 0.0037 0.0001 1.0658 1.0657

1.0617 1.0616 0.0616 0.2867 0.0068 0.0002 1.0617 1.0616

1.0605 1.0604 0.0604 0.2987 0.0080 0.0002 1.0605 1.0604
1.0585 1.0584 0.0584 0.3203 0.0105 0.0003 1.0585 1.0584
1.0559 1.0558 0.0558 0.3492 0.0149 0.0006 1.0559 1.0558
1.0557 1.0556 0.0556 0.3512 0.0152 0.0007 1.0557 1.0556
1.0536 1.0535 0.0535 0.3741 0.0196 0.0010 1.0536 1.0535
1.0523 1.0522 0.0522 0.3900 0.0231 0.0014 1.0523 1.0522
1.0515 1.0514 0.0514 0.3984 0.0252 0.0016 1.0515 1.0514
1.0510 1.0509 0.0509 0.4043 0.0267 0.0018 1.0510 1.0509
1.0499 1.0498 0.0498 0.4175 0.0304 0.0022 1.0499 1.0498
1.0492 1.0491 0.0491 0.4259 0.0329 0.0025 1.0492 1.0491
1.0466 1.0465 0.0465 0.4570 0.0436 0.0042 1.0466 1.0465
1.0408 1.0407 0.0407 0.5258 0.0764 0.0111 1.0408 1.0407
1.0375 1.0374 0.0374 0.5648 0.1017 0.0183 1.0375 1.0374
1.0360 1.0359 0.0359 0.5825 0.1151 0.0228 1.0360 1.0359
1.0348 1.0347 0.0347 0.5967 0.1267 0.0269 1.0348 1.0347
1.0208 1.0207 0.0207 0.7475 0.3123 0.1305 1.0208 1.0207
1.0199 1.0198 0.0198 0.7560 0.3267 0.1412 1.0199 1.0198
1.0146 1.0145 0.0145 0.8035 0.4169 0.2163 1.0146 1.0145
1.0100 1.0099 0.0099 0.8396 0.4969 0.2941 1.0100 1.0099
1.0062 1.0061 0.0061 0.8653 0.5606 0.3632 1.0062 1.0061
0.9927 0.9926 -0.0074 0.9345 0.7627 0.6225 0.9927 0.9926
1.1298 1.1298

Friedman's G
p(WIN) p(
1.00 1.00
0.90 0.90
0.80 0.80
0.70 0.70
0.60 0.60
0.50 0.50
 Friedman's G
p(WIN) p(
1.00 1.00
0.90 0.90
0.80 0.80
0.70 0.70
0.60 0.60
0.50 0.50
0.40 0.40
0.30 0.30
0.20 0.20
0.10 0.10
0.00 0.00
-0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04

1 4 7 1
 Gates'
p(WIN)
% MARKUP 1 4 7

0.1298 0.0045 0.0011 0.0006

0.1085 0.0242 0.0062 0.0035

0.0852 0.1014 0.0274 0.0159

0.0822 0.1183 0.0325 0.0188

0.0819 0.1204 0.0331 0.0192

0.0750 0.1671 0.0478 0.0279

0.0682 0.2235 0.0671 0.0395

0.0657 0.2463 0.0755 0.0446

0.0616 0.2867 0.0913 0.0543

0.0604 0.2987 0.0962 0.0573
0.0584 0.3203 0.1054 0.0631
0.0558 0.3492 0.1183 0.0712
0.0556 0.3512 0.1192 0.0718
0.0535 0.3741 0.1300 0.0787
0.0522 0.3900 0.1378 0.0837
0.0514 0.3984 0.1420 0.0864
0.0509 0.4043 0.1451 0.0884
0.0498 0.4175 0.1519 0.0929
0.0491 0.4259 0.1564 0.0958
0.0465 0.4570 0.1738 0.1073
0.0407 0.5258 0.2170 0.1367
0.0374 0.5648 0.2449 0.1564
0.0359 0.5825 0.2586 0.1662
0.0347 0.5967 0.2700 0.1745
0.0207 0.7475 0.4254 0.2973
0.0198 0.7560 0.4365 0.3068
0.0145 0.8035 0.5056 0.3688
0.0099 0.8396 0.5668 0.4278
0.0061 0.8653 0.6162 0.4785
-0.0074 0.9345 0.7811 0.6709

Gates'
p(WIN)
 Gates'
p(WIN)

0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14

1 4 7