New Astronomy 98 (2023) 101944

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New Astronomy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/newast

Wavelet analysis of annual rainfall over Kerala and sunspot number

Elizabeth Thomas a , Irene Joseph b ,1 , Noble P. Abraham a ,∗
a
Department of Physics, Mar Thoma College, Kuttapuzha P.O. Tiruvalla, PIN 689103, Kerala, India
b
Department of Physics, Devaswom Board Pampa College, Parumala, Tiruvalla, PIN 689626, Kerala, India

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: In this work, we study the periodicities of annual rainfall over Kerala, India, and sunspot number over the time
Solar activity interval 1871–2016, and analyze their potential relationship. The periodicity analysis is done using Fourier
Rainfall over Kerala and wavelet techniques. The results of the Fourier analysis and the wavelet analysis are in agreement. Wavelet
Sunspot number
power in the two time series shows common features at 8–16 years with varying significance, indicating a
Wavelet analysis
relationship between them. An analysis of the temporal relationship between sunspot number and rainfall
using cross-wavelet transform revealed high cross-power around 8–16 years. A wavelet-coherence analysis is
used to determine the correlation between them, and weak coherence has been found with varying degrees of
significance over time.

1. Introduction
The global climate has been changing drastically for years and
has become a matter of great concern as it affects the very existence
of mankind. A major source of energy for the Earth is the Sun, and
variations in solar radiation and composition have a significant effect
on climate, along with the effects of human activity. The magnetic
activity occurring inside the Sun is reflected outside as sunspots, solar
flares, solar wind, Coronal mass ejections, etc, collectively known as
solar activity (Usoskin, 2017). The number of sunspots has been widely
used as an indicator of solar activity as its available for a very long
period (longer than 400 years). Sunspots are cooler and darker regions
on the Sun’s photosphere and are caused by intense magnetic activity
leading to convection inhibition, forming areas of reduced surface
temperature. Sunspot numbers (SSN) are used to quantify sunspots and
are correlated with all other solar indices (Hathaway, 2015; Tiwari and
Kumar, 2018).
The amount of precipitation is an influential climatic parameter that
is influenced by solar activity and, in turn, has an impact on human
life (Tsiropoula, 2003). There are several shreds of evidence from the
literature showing the solar influence on rainfall in different parts of
the world, over varying time scales. Indirect indicators of rainfall such
as droughts, snowfall, and the water level in lakes and rivers were
also studied (Svensmark, 1998; Tsiropoula, 2003; Zhao et al., 2004;
Wasko and Sharma, 2009; Mauas et al., 2011; Rampelotto et al., 2012).
There are works carried out recently, relating sun-precipitation link
in China (Zhai, 2017; Song et al., 2022), in the United States (Nitka
and Burnecki, 2019), the whole of Europe (Laurenz et al., 2019) and
Nepal (Tiwari et al., 2021).
Rainfall has large spatial and temporal variations in India due
to its vast size and geographical complexity. It influences the water
resources system and agriculture sector of the region. Many studies
have been carried out attempting to find a possible association of solar
activity with Indian rainfall. The direct and indirect effects were studied
and the results were often localized and contradictory (Jagannathan
and Bhalme, 1973; Jagannathan and Parthasarathy, 1973; Bhalme
et al., 1981; Ananthakrishnan and Parthasarathy, 1984; Hiremath and
Mandi, 2004; Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, 2005; Hiremath, 2006;
Bhattacharyya and Narasimha, 2007; Lihua et al., 2007; Selvaraj et al.,
2009; Agnihotri et al., 2011; Selvaraj and Aditya, 2011, 2012; Selvaraj
et al., 2013; Hiremath et al., 2015; Badruddin and Aslam, 2015; Warrier
et al., 2017; Malik and Brönnimann, 2018).
Kerala is a state, in India, located on the southwestern coast of
India. It extends between 8◦ 15′ and 12◦ 50′ North latitudes and be-
tween 74◦ 50′ and 77◦ 30′ East longitudes. Rainfall in Kerala is heaviest
during the southwest and northeast monsoons. Studies of long-term
rainfall variability report a significant decrease in southwest monsoon
rainfall and an increase in northeast monsoon rainfall (Krishnakumar
et al., 2009; Kothawale and Rajeevan, 2017). In recent years, Kerala
witnessed severe extreme rainfall events resulting in excessive floods
leading to loss of lives and property. Taking note of this notable
variability in rainfall, availability of long-time data with minimum
missing observations, and covering almost the whole of the state, it

∗ Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: shinuelz@yahoo.co.in (E. Thomas), irenejoseph777@gmail.com (I. Joseph), noblepa@gmail.com (N.P. Abraham).
1
Present Address : School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.newast.2022.101944
Received 6 May 2022; Received in revised form 17 September 2022; Accepted 22 September 2022
Available online 27 September 2022
1384-1076/© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
E. Thomas et al.
Fig. 1. Location map of Kerala, India (Krishnakumar et al., 2009).
would be of interest to consider the rainfall over Kerala and carry out
the analysis. The location map of Kerala (Krishnakumar et al., 2009) is
given in Fig. 1.
In this paper, our objective is to explore the dominant periodicities
present in annual values of sunspot number and rainfall over Kerala and
to identify possible relationship between them. The analysis is done
using the fast Fourier transformation (FFT) and Wavelet transforms.
The paper is organized as follows; Section 2 discusses the data and
the methods of analysis. Section 3 presents the results of the FFT
and Wavelet analyses performed on the sunspot number and rainfall
data. The results of cross-wavelet transforms and wavelet coherence are
included as well. Section 4 presents conclusions.
2. Data and methods
2.1. Dataset
We use 146 years of data (1871–2016) of sunspot number and
rainfall over Kerala, India, in this study. The annual sunspot number
was taken from the World Data Center SILSO, Royal Observatory of Bel-
gium, Brussels (http://www.sidc.be/silso/data_files) and rainfall over
Kerala (in mm), from IITM Research Report No. RR-138 (Kothawale
and Rajeevan, 2017). The annual (averaged for the period of 12
months) values of rainfall were used in the present work. The annual
variation of the sunspot number and rainfall data during the period
1871–2016 is shown in Fig. 2. The annual sunspot number and rainfall
values were standardized for easy comparison of results (Bankoti et al.,
2011; Chaudhuri et al., 2015). The mean and standard deviation of both
data are first computed. The standardized values of each data set are
obtained by removing their corresponding means and dividing by their
own standard deviation. The standardized sunspot number and rainfall
values are denoted as SSN and RF, respectively, throughout the paper.
2.2. Methodology of analysis
In the present study, the standardized annual sunspot number (SSN)
and rainfall (RF) values were subjected to Fourier analysis to in-
vestigate common periodicity between the two series of data while
2
New Astronomy 98 (2023) 101944
wavelet analysis was used to analyze non-stationarity and confirm
the periods. Cross Wavelet Transform (XWT) and Wavelet Transform
Coherence (WTC) are used to evaluate the relationship between the
sunspot number and rainfall in Kerala.
In the FFT spectral plots, the mean (𝜇) and standard deviation (𝜎)
of the spectral powers were calculated to determine 95% (𝜇 + 2𝜎)
confidence level (Chowdhury et al., 2016). The periods having power
>95% confidence level were marked in the plots in Fig. 3.
Wavelet transform is used to determine the localized periodicity and
the non-stationarity present in a given time series. This is carried out
using wavelets, which are functions with zero mean and are localized
in both frequency and time. Morlet wavelet is widely used as it has bet-
ter time–frequency localization (Torrence and Compo, 1998; Grinsted
et al., 2004), and is denoted by
2 ∕2
𝜓0 (𝜂) = 𝜋 −1∕4 𝑒𝑖𝜔0 𝜂 𝑒−𝜂 (1)
where 𝜔0 is a non-dimensional frequency, taken equal to 6 to satisfy
the wavelet admissibility condition (Torrence and Compo, 1998), and
𝜂 is a non-dimensional time parameter. Continuous Wavelet Transform
(CWT) of a time series 𝑥𝑛 , 𝑛 = 0, 1, … , 𝑁 − 1 is given by
[ ]
∑
𝑁−1
(𝑛′ − 𝑛)𝛿𝑡
𝑊𝑛 (𝑠) = 𝑥𝑛′ 𝜓 ∗ (2)
𝑛′ =0
𝑠
where 𝑠 is the scale, 𝛿𝑡 is the uniform sampling time and star de-
notes complex conjugate. The wavelet power spectrum is given by
|𝑊𝑛 (𝑠)|2 (Torrence and Compo, 1998).
Cross Wavelet Transform of two time series reveals regions of com-
mon power and relative phase between them. Cross Wavelet Transform
of two time series 𝑥𝑛 and 𝑦𝑛 is defined as
𝑊𝑛𝑋𝑌 (𝑠) = 𝑊𝑛𝑋 (𝑠)𝑊𝑛𝑌 ∗ (𝑠) (3)
where 𝑊𝑛𝑋 (𝑠)is the CWT of 𝑥𝑛 and 𝑊𝑛𝑌 ∗ (𝑠)
is the complex conjugate of
the CWT of 𝑦𝑛 . The cross wavelet power is given by |𝑊𝑛𝑋𝑌 (𝑠)| and indi-
cates the scale of high covariance between the two time series (Grinsted
et al., 2004).
Wavelet coherence gives the localized correlation between the two
time series in time–frequency space. It is a quantity between 0 and 1
and is defined as the square of the cross-spectrum normalized by the
individual power spectra (Torrence and Compo, 1998; Grinsted et al.,
2004). Wavelet coherence of two time series 𝑥𝑛 and 𝑦𝑛 is given by
( )
2
|𝑆 𝑠−1 𝑊𝑛𝑋𝑌 (𝑠) |2
𝑅𝑛 (𝑠) = ( ) ( ) (4)
𝑆 𝑠−1 |𝑊𝑛𝑋 (𝑠)|2 ⋅ 𝑆 𝑠−1 |𝑊𝑛𝑌 (𝑠)|2
where 𝑆 is a smoothing operator (Grinsted et al., 2004).
XWT shows the regions with high common power between the two
time series and the relative phase in time–frequency space, while WTC
gives the local significant coherence even though the common power
is low (Grinsted et al., 2004). The phase relationship between the two
time series is indicated by arrows in the enclosed significant regions
of the cross-spectrum and coherence spectrum plots. Arrows pointing
toward the right gives an in-phase relation while arrows pointing
toward the left give anti-phase relation. Arrows that do not point
straight to the right or left indicates a lead–lag relationship between the
time series (Grinsted et al., 2004). A cross wavelet and wavelet coher-
ence toolbox for MATLAB downloaded from http://grinsted.github.io/
wavelet-coherence/, was used for this analysis (Grinsted et al., 2004).
3. Results and discussions
3.1. FFT and wavelet power spectrum
A Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) analysis was conducted on the
standardized data of sunspot number (SSN) and rainfall (RF). The
results are shown in Fig. 3. The time series of sunspot numbers gave
E. Thomas et al. New Astronomy 98 (2023) 101944

Fig. 2. Annual variation of sunspot number and rainfall over Kerala (in mm) during the period 1871–2016.

Fig. 3. FFT plot of (a) annual sunspot number (SSN) and (b) annual rainfall (RF).

Fig. 4. Wavelet power spectra of (a) annual sunspot number (SSN) and (b) annual rainfall (RF) values. The thick black contour indicates the 95% confidence level and the cone
of influence (COI) is shown as a black line.

a significant peak at 10.7 years, confirming the Schwabe cycle peri-
odicity. 5.4 years and 8.8 years periodicity were visible with lower
significance. In the case of rainfall, FFT plots showed significant peaks
at 3.2 years and 3.4 years. Periods at 2.4, 2.6, 4.5, 6, 7.5, 9.4, 11.5,
and 16.7 years were also present with lower significance.
Wavelet analyses were carried out to find the dominant periods
present in the sunspot number and rainfall data and the results are
presented as contour plots in Fig. 4. The thick contour lines show
regions of statistically significant wavelet power at 95% confidence
level of a red noise process (Grinsted et al., 2004). The wavelet power
spectrum corresponding to sunspot number showed a significant period
of around 8–14 years, throughout the entire period of study. In the
case of rainfall, the contour plots showed significant periods around 2–
4 years and 4–8 years scale with intermittent power. A lower significant
prominent period was visible between the 8–16 years scale. Significant
power was also observed at higher periods around 16 years.
The periodicity results obtained from FFT and wavelet analysis are
consistent with the literature available. Other than the familiar 11-year
cycle, the sunspot number also reveals short and intermediate periodic-
ities. Aroori et al. (2021) examined the periodicities present in sunspot
number during Solar Cycle 23 and Rieger type periods (130–180 days),
mid-term periods (300–400 days) and long-term periods (430–850

3
E. Thomas et al.
Fig. 5. (a) Wavelet cross-spectra between annual values of sunspot number (SSN) and rainfall (RF) and (b) Wavelet coherence between annual values of sunspot number (SSN)
and rainfall (RF). The thick black contour indicates the 95% confidence level and the cone of influence (COI) is shown as a black line.
days), were noted. Oloketuyi et al. (2020) studied the periodic behavior
of sunspot numbers from 1995 to 2018 and observed 16–32, 32–64,
128–256, and 256–512 days periods. Singh et al. (2019) investigated
the prominent periodicities in sunspot number during Solar Cycles 22–
24 and found them at ≈129, ≈139, ≈148, ≈157, ≈178, ≈ 185, ≈192,
≈214, ≈223, ≈237, ≈271, ≈281, and ≈318 days, and ≈1.24, ≈1.40,
≈1.71, ≈2.21, and ≈2.81 years. Chowdhury et al. (2019) analyzed
the hemispheric sunspot number for the Solar Cycles 18 to 24 and
observed midterm periodicities including Rieger type (130–190 days),
as well as Quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO) in the range of 1.2 year
to 3 years. Singh and Badruddin (2014) detected periodicities of 27.8,
157 and 370 days, and 2.2, 5.5, 11, 22.7 and 38.6 years in the sunspot
number. Jayalekshmi and Prince (2014) conducted periodicity study
of relative sunspot number using wavelet techniques and obtained
significant periods at 10.7 and 110.7 years. Chowdhury and Dwivedi
(2011) studied the short and intermediate periodicities present in the
daily data of sunspot number and found prominent periods of 22 to
35 days, the Rieger period of 150 to 160 days and 1.3 years. Quasi-
biennial oscillations (QBO) are often linked with the 11-year sunspot
cycle and are observed with periods of 1–3 years (Sakurai, 1981;
Bazilevskaya et al., 2000; Kane, 2005; Valdés-Galicia and Velasco,
2008; Vecchio and Carbone, 2009; Sýkora and Rybák, 2010; Vecchio
et al., 2010; Zaqarashvili et al., 2010). Krivova and Solanki (2002)
observed sunspot number periods of 2.35, 4.16, 5.40, 6.42, 7.95, and
10.79 years with varying significance. Several spectral studies of Indian
Monsoon rainfall have revealed QBO periodicity over different parts
of the country (Jagannathan and Bhalme, 1973; Jagannathan and
Parthasarathy, 1973; Parthasarathy and Mooley, 1978; Parthasarathy
and Dhar, 1974; Parthasarathy, 1984; Hiremath and Mandi, 2004).
The rainfall periodicities reported in India are often on an annual
scale. Azad et al. (2010) reported prominent periodicity in Indian
monsoon rainfall as 3.4, 4.5, 6, 9.2, 12, and 17.2 years with 99% sig-
nificance, corresponding to the Kerala region. Surendran et al. (2019)
observed a periodicity of 2–8 years while analyzing annual rainfall over
Kozhikode district of Kerala. Murumkar and Arya (2014) analyzed the
rainfall pattern of Nira Basin in Central India, and noted annual rainfall
periods ranging from 2 to 8 years. Bal and Bose (2010) conducted
Fourier analysis on the annual precipitation of India and the annual
sunspot numbers and observed periods of 2.4, 2.8, 6.6, 41.4 and 5.3,
8.2, 10.2, and 35.5 years respectively. Yadava and Ramesh (2007)
used 331 years of proxy data of Indian monsoon rainfall and found
significantly shorter periods between ∼ 7 and 2.3 years, mainly of solar
origin. Hiremath and Mandi (2004) detected significant periods of 2.7,
16, and 22 years in all Indian rainfall data. Naidu et al. (1999) investi-
gated the periodicity present in annual rainfall of different subdivisions
in India using 124 years of data and detected significant periods in
the range 2–2.5 years, 3–8 years, and 8–12 years. Kerala state region
exhibited periods of 2.4, 3.4, and 5.9 years.
4
New Astronomy 98 (2023) 101944
In the present paper, it was noted that the wavelet power spectrum
of the annual values of sunspot number and rainfall confirmed the
FFT results. Common power was observed around 8–16 years scale,
around common solar cycle periodicity, but with varying degrees of
significance. So it can be assumed that a possible relationship exists
between them.
3.2. Cross-wavelet spectrum and wavelet coherence
Cross-wavelet transform (XWT) was applied to the standardized val-
ues of sunspot number (SSN) and rainfall (RF), to statistically measure
the level of covariance between them. The regions of common power
were given in black contours with the phase relationship. Fig. 5(a)
gives the wavelet cross-spectrum between sunspot number and rainfall
values. A thick black contour indicates a 95% confidence level and the
arrows show the relative phase relationship between them. Right (left)
pointing arrows show an in-phase (anti-phase) relationship.
Visual inspection showed significant intermittent cross-power at 8–
16 years. This suggested a possible link between sunspot numbers and
rainfall. The solar activity started strengthening after 1900 and the
sunspot numbers gradually increased with each cycle. During Solar
cycle 19, maximum power is observed. No particular information about
the phase could be interpreted from the direction of arrows. The
reversal of phases was visible at different times. It was concluded that
the sunspot numbers and rainfall in Kerala showed regions of common
power at annual scales, i.e., at 8–16 years scale.
A cross-power around 11 years has been obtained using annual
values of the sunspot number and rainfall at different places in most of
the earlier studies. Souza Echer et al. (2008) investigated the rainfall
at Pelotas in southern Brazil and found high cross-power with sunspot
numbers for 11 years. A similar result was revealed at Santa Maria,
another location in southern Brazil (Rampelotto et al., 2012). Nazari-
Sharabian and Karakouzian (2020) reported similar cross-power results
while analyzing various stations in Iran.
Wavelet coherence (WTC) was carried out to determine statistically
the relationship between them. Fig. 5(b) gives the results of wavelet
coherence spectra for the annual values of sunspot number and rain-
fall. The black contour in the figure indicates statistically significant
periods of coherence of a thick red noise process at 95% confidence
level (Grinsted et al., 2004).
Significant coherence with less power was observed at different
periods between 2–16 years scale at different intervals of time. A major
part of the power at 32 years scale came under the Cone of Influence
(COI) and was thus ignored. No phase information could be obtained
from the weak coherence results.
E. Thomas et al.
4. Conclusions
To examine the dominant periodicities present in the annual values
of sunspot number and rainfall over Kerala, India over the period from
1871 to 2016, the Fourier and wavelet transforms were employed. The
FFT results of the annual sunspot number gave a significant peak at
10.7 years. In the rainfall data, a dominant peak was observed at 3.2
and 3.4 years, with a few other periods having lower power. A period
of 11.5 years, around the well-known solar cycle, was also visible, how-
ever with low power (lower than 95% confidence level). The wavelet
spectrum of sunspot numbers gave a significant period of around 8–
16 years, throughout the entire period of study. The rainfall showed
highly significant periods between 2–4 years, 4–8 years, and even
around 16 years, intermittently during the entire period of study. Based
on Fourier analysis, the estimated periods were similar to those from
wavelet analysis. The rainfall exhibited periods that matched sunspot
number, around 11 years, suggesting a possible connection. Similarity
of periodicities between several solar activity indices and different
meteorological parameters like rainfall are taken as an evidence of a
response (Tsiropoula, 2003).
The temporal relationship between sunspot numbers and rainfall
was studied using a Cross-wavelet transform. Cross-wavelet spectrum
displayed significant cross-power at the 8–12 years scale, i.e., around
11 years. Correlations between the annual sunspot numbers and the
rainfall were analyzed using wavelet coherence. At different intervals
of time, significant coherence with less power was observed between
the 2–16 years scale. Cross-wavelet and coherence analyses failed to
uncover significant phase information due to phase reversal throughout
the study period.
Variations in solar activity influences rainfall, as revealed by their
common periodicity. More explorations are thus necessary to reveal a
better understanding of relations among them.
CRediT authorship contribution statement
Elizabeth Thomas: Methodology, Software, Formal analysis, In-
vestigation, Writing – review & editing. Irene Joseph: Formal anal-
ysis, Writing – original draft. Noble P. Abraham: Conceptualization,
Writing – review & editing, Supervision.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing finan-
cial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.
Data availability
The data used are already available to public. The sources are
specified in the manuscript.
Acknowledgments
The authors are thankful to the Royal Observatory of Belgium for
the sunspot numbers data and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology
(IITM) for the rainfall data. The first author acknowledges the Junior
Research Fellowship from Mahatma Gandhi University, Kottayam, Ker-
ala, India. The authors are thankful to the anonymous reviewers, whose
inputs have improved the presentation of our results.
5
New Astronomy 98 (2023) 101944
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