THE HDM-4 MODEL

Christopher R. Bennett,
B.E. , M.E. , Ph.D.
Honorary Senior Research Fellow, School of Civil Engineering,
The University of Birmingham

SUMMARY

The World Bank's HDM-III model was released in 1987 and is used around the world to
investigate the economic implications of investments in the road infrastructure. Its
relationships have also been adopted for use in various other investment models and
pavement management systems .

In 1993 an international collaborative study commenced to develop HDM-4. The

International Study of Highway Development and Management Tools (ISOHDM) will
result in a new software platform and changes to many of the technical relationships that
were in HDM-Ill.

This paper describes the key technical relationships in HDM-4. It commences with an
overview of the modelling framework adopted for both pavements and road user effects
and shows how HDM-4 has been made more flexible and thus able to better cater for the
range of conditions which it will be applied in. This is then followed by a discussion of the
road deterioration model and the road user effects model.

The road deterioration modelling is based around a more disaggregate approach than in
HDM-III. The model can also be more readily calibrated. Changes were made to the way
in which some distresses, such as cracking, were modelled, and additional distresses in the
form of delaminations, edge break and macrotexture were introduced.

The road user effects model in HDM-4 wil l consider the full range of components.
Refinements to the model have been made in several areas and new modules for considering
congestion, traffic safety, road works due to delay and environmental impacts have been
included.

PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE, PART 4 67

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Most of the work described in this paper was undertaken
while the author was Team Leader and Principal Investigator on the HDM-4 Technical
Relationships Study (HTRS). This study was funded by the Asian Development Bank
under Technical Assistance Project RETA 5549 and hosted by IKRAM in Malaysia.
Subsequent work was funded by the World Bank. The author would like to acknowledge
the contributions of the HTRS team members as well as the many reviewers and others
who have contributed or participated in the ISOHDM Study. The views expressed in this
paper are those of the author and not the ISOHDM Study or any of its participants.

Chris Bennett was Team Leader on the HDM-4 Technical

Relationships Study and is a recognised international expert on
the Highway Development and Management Model (HDM). He
has carried out studies with HDM in Thailand, Myanmar and Nepal
as well as incorporating HDM modelling relationships into
pavement management systems in New Zealand and India. He has
prepared guidelines on the calibration of HDM to be published by
the World Bank. He received a Ph.D. from the University of
Auckland in 1994 for a project which developed a microscopic
speed simulation model for two-l ane highways in New Zealand.
His M.Eng. was also from Auck land and focused on vehicle
operating costs for use in economic appraisals based on HDM-111.
This led to the development of the NZVOC model which is used
by Transit NZ to prepare VOC tables for the Project Appraisal
Manual. He is currently a part-time Honorary Senior Research
Fellow at the University of Birmingham and part-time consultant
with Highway and Traffic Consultants Ltd.

68 PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE , PART 4

 INTRODUCTION

1. The World Bank ' s Highway Design and Maintenance Standards Model (HOM) is
widely used by consultants, lending agencies and government departments to investigate
the economic consequences of investments in the road infrastructure. The current
version of the model (HOM-III) was released in 1987 and the model, or its elements,
have been used in projects identified in almo st 100 countries (Bennett, 1995a).

2. HOM-III contains relationships for predicting the performance of pavements over

time and under traffic and for the effect of maintenance activities on road characteristics,
particularly pavement condition. It also contains relationships which predict the effect
of road characteristics on vehicle operating costs (VOC). By consideri ng the total
transport costs, defined as those due to construction, maintenance and VOC, one can
establish the economic implications of different investment options and establish the
investment strategy which minimises the total transport costs.

3. The fundamental relationships contained in HOM-Ill are based on research

conducted in several countries. For VOC, HOM-III contains four sets of relationships
from primary studies conducted in Kenya ( 1971-75), the Caribbean (1977-8 2), India
( 1977-83) and Brazil ( 1975-84). The data for developing the relationships were
collected both through controlled experiments and from user cost surveys. The road
deterioration and maintenance effects (ROME) relationships were developed from long-
term performance studies conducted primarily in Brazil and widely verified on
independent field studies from several different countries

4. An international collaborative study - called the International Study of Highway

Development and Management Tools (ISOHOM) - commenced in 1993 . Compri sed
of study teams based in Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Sweden, and the U K , the objective of
the TSOHOM Study is to develop improved relationships and techniques for economic
appraisals of road improvement projects One outcome of the study will be a new
version ofHOM : HOM-4

5. This paper describes the key enhancements made to the technical relationships and
modelling for HOM-4 The software and analytical framework are described elsewhere
(Kerali, 1996).

MODELLING FRAMEWORK

PAVEMENTS

6. HOM-Ill was limited with respect to the types of pavements which cou ld be
analysed Since the objective of HOM-4 was to develop a model which would be
applicable to the full range of pavement types found in both developed and developing
countries, an integrated framework for classifYing pavements was developed .

PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE , PART 4 69

7 Pavements are classed into four classes based on their surfacing class: bituminous,
rigid , block, and unsealed . For each surfacing class there are various different types of
surfacing and base materials, for example AC on a granular base. It can be anticipated
that the performance of a pavement will be a function of the surface and base materials.
Accordingly, in HDM-4 parameter values for modelling pavement deterioration are
supplied based on these two attributes.

8. While HDM-III often had different relationships for different types of pavements,
wherever possible HDM-4 has adopted a single set of relationships with different
parameter values based on the surface and base materials. The advantage of this
approach is that new pavements can be modelled by assuming that the performance lies
somewhere relative to current pavements. It also ensures that the predictions for
different pavement types are internally consistent thereby allowing for effective
comparisons of, for example, different surface materials.

ROAD USER EFFECTS

9 As in HDM-III, road user effects (RUE), comprised of vehicle operating costs,

traffic safety and environmental impact, are modelled using representative vehicles.
These are vehicles whose characteristics are taken to be representative of an entire
vehicle class.

10. While HDM-III allowed up to 10 representative vehicles in a single run

(Watanatada, et aL , 1987), in HDM-4 the user will be able to define any number of
vehicles. This will enable the user to have, for example, several heavy trucks but with
different loading patterns. Parameter values for 16 default vehicles - ranging from
motorcyles through heavy trucks, buses and coaches - are supplied with HDM-4.

11 . The vehicle fleet are divided into a three level hierarchy. The top level consists of
two broad categories of transport :

• Motorised transport - the motorised traffic stream comprised of the default 16

representative vehicle classes;
• Non-motorised transport (NMT) - pedestrians, bicycles, animal drawn vehicles, and
slow moving motorised traffic such as farm tractors.

12. The second level consists of vehicle classes. These are groupings of similar
vehicles, for example cars, trucks and buses. The final level, where all modelling is
done, is the individual representative vehicle types, for example small, medium and large
passenger cars.

MODELLING ROAD DETERIORATION AND MAINTENANCE EFFECTS

13 . The road deterioration and maintenance effects (RD.ME) model in HDM-4 is an

incremental change from that in HDM-III (Watanatada, et aL , 1987) The work focused
on extending the relationships to a wider range of surfaces as well as addressing various

70 PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE , PART 4

omissions or shortcomings suggested by users of HOM-III. Much of the work was
based on concepts and models from Paterson (1987) . NDLI (1995a) describe the
background to the HOM-4 RDME models. Riley and Bennett (1996) refined the
material in NDLI (1995a) to establish the relationships to be implemented into the
software.

14. The two new pavement types in HOM-4 - block pavements and rigid pavements
have relationships based on two different approaches. The absence of detailed
pavement performance models for block pavements meant that the models were largely
conceptual, based on the limited available data. The rigid pavement models were
developed by the ISOHDM Chile study team based on various available data bases and
published studies.

15 The HOM-4 unsealed road model is the same as that in HOM-III. Since the rigid
pavement models at the time of writing have not been finalised , the discussion in this
paper will focus on bituminous pavements. For brevity, the equations are not
presented . Those interested can find details of these in the supporting material (NDLI,
1995a; Riley and Bennett, 1996).

HDM MODELLING APPROACH

16. For modelling RDME there are two general classes of models: mechanistic and
empirical. Mechanistic models use fundamental theories of pavement behaviour for their
modelling; empirical models on the other hand are usually based on statistical analyses of
observed deterioration trends. Mechanistic models are very data intensive, which is a
disadvantage in models such as HDM, while empirical models do not adapt well to
different conditions. Paterson ( 1987) minimised these problems by adopting a structured
empirical approach for developing the HOM-III RDME model. This was based on
iclentifying the functional form and primary variables from external sources and then
using various statistical techniques to quantify their impacts.

17 The HOM relationships were therefore formulated based on " mechanistic

concepts of material properties and behaviour under traffic loading and climatic factors,
and the results of experimental research" (Paterson, 1987). This had the advantage that
the resulting models combined both the theoretical and experimental bases of mechanistic
models with the behaviour observed in empirical studies. The success of this approach
can be seen in the flexibility of the resulting models and their successful application in
predicting pavement performance in a wide range of countries (Chakrabarti and Bennett,
1994)

18. The models in HOM are incremental models that give the change in condition
from an initial state as a function of the independent variables. These can be applied to
a variety of different initial conditions and offer much more flexibility than absolute
models. The models work in terms of the change of distress over a period, which is
based on either either time or the number of equivalent standard axles.

19. HOM predicts the development of the key distresses and expresses this
development in the same manner as the distress is quantified; for example, rut depths are

PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE, PART 4 71

expressed in rnrn; cracks in length per unit area or percentage area; roughness in m/km.
This not only offers great versatility but it also facilitates understanding what is
happening to the pavement. HOM also operates on the development and progression
of the actual distresses. The flexible pavement distresses modelled in HDM-4 are:

• crack initiation and progression;

• ravelling initiation and progression;
• rut depth progression;
• pothole initiation and progression;
• delamination initiation and progression;
• roughness progression.

20. There is an interaction between these distresses since they develop and progress
from minor to major distresses. Fig. 1 shows their interactions. As shown in Fig. 1,
cracking, ravelling and potholing/delamination have two stages in their predictions. The
first stage consists of predicting the initiation period of the distress, i.e., the time until the
distress first occurs. The second consists of the distress progression. The progression
typically follows a sigmoidal curve.
,------------------- ----
I
Rutting 1--- - -
~- l
I
I

I
------------~

~
L:'__j
'----------------------- --------

Fig. 1 - Interaction of HDM-4 Distress Model

CHARACTERISING PAVEMENT STRENGTH

21 . The measure of pavement strength to be used in HDM-4 is the modified structural

number. For bituminous pavements it is calculated as the sum of the products of the
layer thicknesses and layer strength coefficients along with the strength contribution of

72 PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE, PART 4

the subgrade. For HDM-4 drainage coefficients have been included which modify the
strength as a function of drainage and moisture.

CRACKING

22. In HDM-III cracking was modelled as the area of narrow and wide cracks. The
HDM-4 cracking model considers three components of cracking :

• structural cracking;
• transverse thermal cracking;
• reflection cracking.

Structural Cracking

23 . For HDM-4 the user will not need to specify the area of narrow and wide cracks.
Instead, the structural cracking can be expressed in terms of the "Indexed" cracking as
this is now used in the modelling. Indexed cracking is the normalised sum of AASHTO
class 2 to 4 cracks (i.e. cracks 1-3 mm, > 3 mm without spalling, and spalled cracks)
normalised by classes. Unlike HDM-111, structural cracking is traffic as opposed to time
based.

Thermal Cracking

24 . Thermal cracking is considered to be transverse cracks caused by thermal

changes. The thermal cracking models developed from an early analysis of AC
pavements in the LTPP database were adopted for HDM-4 .

Reflection Cracking

25 . Reflection cracking is the development of cracks in a surface layer that have

reflected through the pavement from underlying layers . Any bituminous surfacing can
develop reflection cracking, depending on the condition of the underlying surface Both
fatigue cracks and transverse cracks will, over time, reflect through a new surface. The
rate of reflection cracking has been found to be largely a factor of surfacing thickness
and climatic variables; it is fairly independent of loading. Reflection cracking can be
retarded through the use of crack relief layers or geomembranes, but no satisfactory
method of eliminating it completely has yet been found , short of complete removal of the
cracked layer prior to resurfacing.

26. The literature was not found to contain any suitable models for predicting
reflection cracking. Based on the available studies a conceptual model was proposed
which predicts reflection cracking as a function of the new layer thickness.

RUT DEPTH

27 . A major change for HDM-4 is the standardisation of rut depths to a 20m straight-
edge HDM-III was based on a 1.2 m straight-edge but many studies did not appear to

PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE, PART 4 73

be aware of this when applying HDM-III (Chakrabarti and Bennett, 1995). Based on
data from South Mrica, a conversion factor of RD 20 = 1.31 RD 12 was used to convert
the HDM-III model coefficients (NDLI, 1995a).

28 . The HDM-4 rut depth model is based on there being four components to rutting

• initial densification;
• structural deterioration;
• plastic deformation;
• wear from studded tyres.

The rut depth at any time is the sum of the four components. A variety of factors
influence each component.

RAVELLING

29 Ravelling mitiat!On is dependent upon the type of surface and the level of
construction defects. While HDM-III had a "construction quality" indicator which was
0 or 1, HDM-4 uses a factor based on the pavement construction conditions and one
based on the pavement design and environment to define a "construction defects rating" .
These can have values between 0 and 1.5 and the sum of the two governs ravelling
initiation Ravelling progression is modelled using the same equations as in HDM-III.

POTHOLING

30. HDM-111 expressed potholing as the percentage area. However, some studies
were found to have used patently unreasonable values for this distress in the modelling.
To reduce the likelihood of this arising with HDM-4, potholing is expressed in terms of
the " number of standard potholes". This is considered to be a hole with a 300 mm
diameter (0.07 m\ although analysts can adopt any standard size they like as long as it
is related back to the HDM-4 standard size. If the pothole is larger than the standard
size it is expressed as multiples of standard potholes.

31 . Potholing is a function of the base defects. It is considered to arise due to three

factors cracking, ravelling and enlargement of existing potholes Initiation of potholes
due to cracking only arises once the total area cracked exceeds 20 per cent. Ravelling
initiated potholes arise when the ravelled area exceeds 30 per cent. The equations used
are based on those in HDM- III, modified for the new definition of potholing.

DELAMINATION

32 . As with potholes, delamination is expressed in terms of the number of standard

(300 mm diameter) delaminations per km. It is assumed to only arise on overlaid
surfaces where the thickness is less than 80 mm. Owing to a lack of detailed
relationships, the delamination model is based largely on the potholing modeL

74 PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE, PART 4

ROUGHNESS

33 . The roughness model consists of the predictions for each component of roughness.
The total incremental roughness is the sum of these components. The components
modelled, and the factors influencing them, are

• structural : the pavement strength, age, environment and traffic;

• cracking: the total area cracked;
• ravelling : the total area ravelled;
• rutting: the standard deviation of rut depth;
• potholing the number of potholes, their time to patching, and the likelihood of
hitting a pothole;
• delaminatons : the number of delaminations, their time to patching, and the likelihood
of hitting a delaminaton;
• patching: the number of patches;
• environment: the climate, temperature and previous IRI.

34. With potholes and delaminations two new factors have been introduced to the
modelling. The time to patching is the average length of time it takes for a pothole or
delamination to be patched. In HDM-111 patching was only considered to arise once a
year. The likelihood of being hit is based on a conceptual model which considers both
width and volume The assumption is that if the traffic is low enough and the road wide
enough a vehicle will miss a pothole whereas under different conditions they would hit
the pothole.

EDGE BREAK

3 5. Edge break arises when vehicles move over the edge of the pavement. The
model adopted is based on Hoban ( 1987) and considers factors such as the traffic volume
and the edge step .

TEXTURE AND SKID RESISTANCE

36 Based on research in New Zealand, the HDM-4 macrotexture relates texture

changes to traffic Although NDLI (1995a) contain relationships for predicting skid
resistance, their implementation into HDM-4 has not as yet been confirmed.

MODELLING ROAD USER EFFECTS IN HDM-4

37. The HDM-4 road user effects (RUE) model contains a number of significant
changes from HDM-III. The following sections outlines the HDM-4 RUE modeL A
detailed description of the background to the model is given in NDLI (1995b) and
Bennett ( 1995b). Bennett and Greenwood (1996) describe the final implementation of
the RUE model for HDM-4.

PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE, PART 4 75

FREE SPEEDS

38 . There were no significant changes to the free speed modelling in HDM-4 . The
limiting speed model developed for HDM-III was maintained for HDM-4, although the
parameter values were refined based on recent research. The only notable changes
were:

• an alteration of the speed model on downgrades to take into account the length of
grade;
• the inclusion of posted speed limit as a consideration;
• changes to the effects of width on free speed;
• the inclusion of speed reduction factors due to non-motorised transport and side
friction .

FUEL CONSUMPTION

39. The HDM-4 fuel consumption model is based on the ARRB ARFCOM model
(Biggs, 1988) This predicts that the fuel consumption is a function of the power
required to overcome the forces opposing motion. Modifications were made to the way
in which the model predicts engine and accessory power (Bennett and Greenwood,
1996). Parameter values were estimated for the 16 default representative vehicles.

CONGESTION

Congested Speeds

40. The speed-flow model adopted for motorised vehicles in HDM-4 is the "three-
zone" model proposed by Hoban, et. aL ( 1994). The model predicts that below a
certain volume there are no traffic interactions and all vehicles travel at their free speeds.
Once traffic interactions commence, which may be at 0 flow, the speeds ofthe individual
vehicles decrease until the nominal capacity where all vehicles will be travelling at the
speed of the slowest vehicle class. The speeds can then further decrease towards the
ultimate capacity beyond which unstable flow will arise.

41 . The HDM-4 speed-flow model departs from traditional speed flow models through
its use of passenger car space equivalents (PCSE) instead of passenger car units (PCU)
or veh/h. The PCSE reflect the differences in space occupied by each vehicle type on the
road, which directly affects road capacity (Hoban, et aL , 1994). The PCSE are used
because the model already considers the differences in speeds by vehicle type which,
along with space, are implicitly considered by PCU factors .

42 . Non-motorised transport (NMT) will have an effect in that they will both reduce
the capacity and increase the total flow . However, only the portion of the NMT actually
interacting with motorised traffic are included in calculating the total flow.

76 PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE , PART 4

Theoretical Basis for Congestion VOC Modelling in HDM-4

43 . The HDM-4 speed-flow model shows that as flows increase, there is an increase in
vehicle interactions and a decrease in speeds. These interactions are accompanied by an
increase in the frequency and magnitude of the vehicle accelerations and decelerations.
The HDM-4 congestion model is built around this theory

44 . The magnitude of vehicle interactions are to be represented in HDM-4 by the

acceleration noise, i e the standard deviation of acceleration. The total acceleration
noise for a vehicle is considered to be comprised of the following two components

2
where cra is the total acceleration noise in m/s
2
crat is the noise due to fast-moving vehicle interactions in m/s
2
cran is the natural noise ascribed to the driver and road in m/s

45 . The natural noise is considered to be a function of the driver, road alignment,

roughness, side friction and non-motorised transport . The driver and alignment noise
are combined as it is difficult to separate them when making measurements. The other
three components are modelled using a linear model (Bennett and Greenwood, 1996).

46. In HDM-4 traffic noise is considered to be due to motorised traffic . On the basis
of previous research and experiments conducted by the ISOHDM team in Malaysia, an
equation was developed which gave the traffic noise as a function of flow (NDLI,
1995b)

Calculating the Additional Fuel Due to Congestion

47 . The additional fuel costs (and any other YOC component which can be predicted
mechanistically) are predicted using a Monte Carlo simulation. It is assumed that the
speeds are normally distributed with a user defined coefficient of variation (defau lt =
0 15). At each flow level , a speed is randomly selected from this distribution .

48 . The total acceleration noise is then established for the same flow level using the
appropriate acceleration noise (i.e the standard deviation) and a normal distribution with
a mean of 0. The vehicle is then simulated as travelling along an idealised road with a
minimum length of 5000 m with random accelerations and decelerations based on the
acceleration noise distribution for that relative flow .

49 Using the HDM-4 fuel model, the fuel consumption is calculated instantaneously
based on the speed and acceleration. The difference between this fuel consumption and
that which arises at a steady state speed is the additional fuel due to congestion. To
avoid long run times, the analysis is run as a calibration routine and the results are stored
in a file which is read during the HDM analysis.

PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE, PART 4 77

MAINTENANCE AND REPAIRS

50 . In HDM-III the effect of roughness on maintenance and repair costs was often
the most significant benefit arising from road improvement projects. Owing to the
absence of significant new data, the HDM-4 parts consumption model by uecessity is
largely based on the HOM-III modeL Instead of the complicated formulation used in
HDM-III, a linear model as· a function of roughness was adopted for all vehicles for
clarity and to facilitate local calibration.

51 In HOM-III the user could elect to ignore benefits from parts consumption for
roughnesses below 3 IRl This was based on the assumption that roughness changes in
this region would have little, if any effect Subsequent research showed that, at least for
passenger cars, this was a valid assumption and that below 3-4 IRI most roughness
effects are absorbed by the tyres and suspension (NDLI, 1995b) Accordingly, HDM-4
uses a smoothing function to limit roughness effects at low roughnesses.

52 The HDM-4 parts model was calibrated to data from a number of studies and
parameter values were given in NDLI ( 1995b ). However, it must be noted that most of
these studies were based on vehicles significantly different to the modern vehicle fleet
Because of this, NDLI ( 1995b) recommended parameter values for modern vehicles
which were estimated based on judgement These parameter values were, for passenger
cars, only 40 per cent as sensitive to roughness as the HOM-III BraziL

53 . At the HDM-4 Workshop on Road User Effects, held at the TRL in December
1995, the issue of parts consumption modelling was discussed at length. Participants,
which included individuals involved with the original Brazil data collection and analysis,
supported the use of the simple linear model form and, more importantly, the reduction
in both the magnitude of parts consumption and the effects of roughness on parts
consumption It was also noted that with buses the effects of roughness on parts in
HDM-III was underpredicted. On the basis of these discussions it was decided to adopt
parameter values which gave the same roughness effect for all vehicle classes (Bennett,
1996) These were based on the Brazil truck equations which were considered to be the
most reliable.

54 . For maintenance labour the HDM-III model and parameter values were retained .

SERVICE LIFE, DEPRECIATION AND INTEREST

55 Bennett (1995c) reviewed different methods for predicting service life,

depreciation and interest costs. Particular attention was paid to the use of the "Optimal
Life" (OL) method proposed by Chesher and Harrison (1987) and a similar method by
Hine (1982)

56 . OL methods predict that the optimal life of a vehicle is a function of the stream of
running costs for the vehicle. Based on economic theory, the optimal age to scrap a
vehicle arises when

78 PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE , PART 4

 OL

NVPLT = f [MAINT(OL) - MAINT(t)] e - ir

1
dt (2)
0

MAINT(OL) = DEP(t) + INT(t) + MAINT(t) (3)

where NVPLT is the replacement vehicle price less tyres

MAINT is the maintenance and repair cost
DEP is the depreciation cost
INT is the interest cost
If is the discount rate
is timet

57. Fig. 2 illustrates the optimal life By virtue of the above equation, the optimal life
arises when the shaded area above the running costs is equal to the discounted vehicle
price. Bennett (1995c) found that when applied with 'typical' data the Chesher and
Harrison ( 1987) OL method could give unreasonably long predicted service lives. An
alternative approach using the capital recovery technique was proposed (NOLI, 1995b ).

Running Costs

OL

Fig. 2: Costs, Vehicle Age and Optimal Scrapping

58 . Subsequent to NOLI (1995b), further work was done on the OL method

(Chesher, 1995) This indicated that if one incorporated varying utilisation into the OL
calculations the service life was significantly reduced. Chesher (1990) also found that
since the older vehicles sampled in the user surveys were survivors, the models
underpredicted the effect of age on costs by approximately 25 per cent Combining these
two effects resulted in significantly reduced service lives. The revised OL method was
therefore proposed for incorporation into HDM-4 (Bennett, 1996), although at the time
of writing the final implementation has not been resolved.

TRAFFIC SAFETY

59 . As described by NOLI (1995b), an investigation was made by the TRL of the

viability of including predicting relationships for traffic safety into HDM-4 . Based on

PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE , PART 4 79

their recommendations it was decided that the most appropriate approach was to use a
' matrix' wherein the user specified the accident rates under certain road or traffic
conditions.

EFFECTS OF ROAD WORKS

60. HOM-4 will contain an additional model which will be run external to the main
analysis for calculating the effects of road works on fuel and travel time. This model is
described in detail by Greenwood, et al. (1996) .

VEIDCLE EMISSIONS AND NOISE

61 . The objective of HOM is for the model to consider environmental impacts such
as vehicle emissions and noise. An emission model was proposed for HDM-4
(Hammerstrom, 1995), however, it was considered that further work was required
before this model could be fully implemented. Noise emissions are to be modelled using
a technique based on the UK CRTN approach (HMSO, 1988).

CONCLUSIONS

62. HOM-4 represents a significant change from HOM-III, both m terms of

modelling road deterioration and maintenance effects and road user effects.

63 . The RDME model is more flexible than in HDM-III and can cover a much wider
range of pavement types. Models are provided for most pavement types commonly
found , from flexible to rigid pavements. The models adopted are either refinements of
the HOM-III models or else models developed in other studies. Several changes were
made to the RDME modelling from HDM-III and additional distresses were included.

64. The RUE model allows the analyst to consider the full range of components
influencing RUE. As with RDME, several models are refinements or adaptations of
models developed elsewhere. Significant changes were made to the fuel , parts
consumption and capital cost models while several new models were included, for
example the effects of traffic congestion.

65 While HDM-4 represents an improvement over HDM-III, it must be emphasised

that the models were developed essentially from a ' desk study' of available sources. In
many instances it was necessary to resort to judgement or interpolation to establish
suitable model parameters. Given the magnitude of investments that will be made using
these models, this is a less than desirable situation.

66 . The participants of the HOM-4 Workshop on Road User Effects that was held at
the TRL in December 1995 were of the strong opinion that it is essential that some form
of user cost study be initiated to confirm and/or refine the various RUE models in HOM-
4. It is 20 years since the Brazil study was conducted and there have been significant
changes in vehicle technology in the intervening period which we need to understand and

80 PROCEEDINGS ROADS 96 CONFERENCE, PART 4

modeL The same situation applies in the RDME area where there is a need to validate
and extrapolate the models to different pavement types and environmental areas .

67. During 1996 the HDM-4 software will begin to be field tested . At the same time,
an effort is being made by the ISOHDM Study to undertake validation studies to address
key issues in the RUE and RDME models. It is likely that these will lead to some
refinement or modifications to the current models The final set of HDM-4 models will
be published after the final release of the software in 1997.

REFERENCES

Bennett, C.R. ( 1995a). Review of Experience with the HDM-III Vehicle Operating
Costs Model. ISOHDM Study Report . (University of Birmingham : Birmingham)

Bennett, C.R. (1995b). The HDM-4 Road User Effects Model: Briefing Paper for the
ISOHDM Workshop on Road User Effects. ISOHDM Study Report . (University of
Birmingham Birmingham)

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