Middle East Technical University ME 496 Design of Renewable Energy Systems

Department of Mechanical Engineering Spring 2022-2023

Project Part 2

Analysis of the Performance of a Wind Turbine Power Plant Located in Antakya,

Turkey by Using Piecewise Equation with Weibull Shape Parameter and Using
Power Curve of the Wind Turbine
Ayberk Uluer, Atakan Sarıbay, Şamil Hüseyin Güngör

2381903, 2378651, 2378164

Mechanical Engineering
E-mail: ayberk.uluer@metu.edu.tr, atakan.saribay@metu.edu.tr, samil.gungor@metu.edu.tr

Abstract

This report examines the energy production of a wind turbine power plant consisting of a single AN Bonus 1000/54
model wind turbine with a hub height of 60 meters located in Antakya/Hatay using two different methodologies to
estimate energy production and power coefficient values. The first methodology utilizes a piecewise equation using
Weibull shape parameter, while the second methodology utilizes the power curve of the turbine provided by the
manufacturer. The energy output, power coefficient and capacity factor are then calculated for each method, and the
obtained results were analyzed and compared. The findings indicate that the piecewise method gives a yearly energy
output of 2018 MWh while the power curve method gives an output of 2095.6 MWh. Average yearly power coefficient
is 31.7% and 26.07% and the yearly capacity factor is 23% and 23.92% for the piecewise method and power curve
method respectively.

1. Introduction 2. Theory and Methodology

Since the early 20th century, global energy consumption A wind turbine is a device that utilizes the wind energy to
has risen dramatically [1]. To meet this demand, fossil fuels produce electricity. There are two types of wind turbines:
have traditionally been the go-to source, but their increased vertical axis wind turbines (VAWTs) and horizontal axis
usage has led to serious environmental issues such as global wind turbines (HAWTs). In our study, we focused on
warming and air pollution. As a result, finding ways to horizontal axis wind turbines.
transition to renewable sources of energy has become more Horizontal axis wind turbines utilize blades that are
pressing than ever before. One of the most widely researched connected to a shaft. When the wind blows, the blades rotate
and a popular form of renewable energy is wind energy. around the shaft due to the lift forces acting on them.
According to Our World in Data, total wind power generation However, the rotational speed of the shaft is generally low.
in the world has raised about 1407TWh per year from 2011 to To overcome this, a gearbox is housed inside the turbine,
2021 and much effort has been invested in making it more which increases the rotational speed and transfers it to
viable for large-scale energy production [1]. another shaft. The mechanical energy from this high-speed
In our study, hourly measurements of wind speed at a shaft is then used to generate electricity with the help of a
reference height of 10 meters are gathered throughout a year generator. Inner structure of a wind turbine can be observed
in Antakya/Hatay. Environmental conditions like ambient in Figure 1.
pressure and temperature are also recorded which were used
in the calculations. With this data, we estimated the energy
production of a wind turbine power plant of a given size over
the entire year using two different methods - one utilizing the
piecewise equation with Weibull shape parameter, and
another using the power curve provided by the
manufacturers. Additionally, we developed a mathematical
model to calculate the corresponding power coefficient and
capacity factor for both methods.
Antakya was chosen as the study location due to the
heavy damage it sustained in the earthquake that occurred on
February 6th, 2023. As a result, our study may help to
determine whether wind energy could be a viable alternative
energy source for the city, given its infrastructure had been
destroyed. Our results shed light on the feasibility of using Figure 1. Inner structure of a horizontal axis wind turbine [2].
wind energy to meet the city's energy needs in such
challenging circumstances. There are several factors affecting the energy produced by
a wind turbine. The first factor that is considered in our study
is air density. The air density, 𝜌, can be calculated using the
ideal gas law as in equation (1);

Page 1 of 5
 𝑝 From here, some of the concepts regarding the wind
𝜌=
𝑅×𝑇 turbines need to be explained. The cut-in wind speed, 𝑢𝑐 , is
the minimum wind speed at which the turbine is able to
where 𝑝 is the air pressure, 𝑇 is the air temperature and 𝑅 is generate electricity by rotating. Below 𝑢𝑐 , the turbine is able
the specific gas constant. It can be calculated from equation to rotate slightly but loses its energy generation in
(2); transmission and generator elements. Rated speed, 𝑢𝑅 , is the
wind speed at which the turbine reaches its maximum
𝑅 𝑘𝐽 electrical output, 𝑃𝑒,𝑅 , rated power. The cut-out wind speed,
𝑅= = 0.287
𝑀 𝑘𝑔 × 𝐾 𝑢𝐹 , is the wind speed where brakes are applied to prevent the
turbine from any damage due to high speeds. Therefore, there
𝑘𝐽
where 𝑅 = 8.314 𝑘𝑚𝑜𝑙×𝐾
is the universal gas constant, is no energy output for wind speeds higher than 𝑢𝐹 .
𝑘𝑔 Regression coefficients a and b can be obtained from
𝑀 = 28.97 is the molecular mass of the air. equations (8) and (9)
𝑘𝑚𝑜𝑙
It is important to note that pressure varies as a function of
altitude. As we made our measurements at a reference height 𝑃𝑒,𝑅 × 𝑢𝑐𝑘
of 10 meters, we need to obtain their values at the hub height. 𝑎=
𝑢𝑐𝑘 − 𝑢𝑅𝑘
For this, equation (3) is utilized; 𝑃𝑒,𝑅
𝑏= 𝑘
𝑔×𝑧 𝑢𝑅 − 𝑢𝑐𝑘
𝑝(𝑧) = 𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑚 × 𝑒 −𝑅×𝑇
where k is the Weibull shape parameter. From equation (10),
where 𝑧 is the altitude and 𝑔 is the gravitational acceleration. it is
Similarly, temperature measurements are taken at
reference height of 10 meters. To obtain the temperature 𝜎
−1.086
values at the hub height, equation (4) is used; 𝑘=( )
𝑢𝑢
𝑇(𝑧) = 𝑇 − 𝑅𝑎 × (𝑧 − 𝑧𝑟𝑒𝑓 ) (4)
where 𝑢𝑢 is the yearly mean wind speed 𝜎 is the standard
°C deviation based on the sample variance. For a sample size of
where 𝑅𝑎 = 0.01 𝑚 is the adiabatic lapse rate and 𝑧𝑟𝑒𝑓 is the
𝑛 they can be obtained as in equations (11) and (12).
reference height.
Substituting equations (3) and (4) into equation (1), 𝑛
1
equation (5) is obtained. 𝑢𝑢 = × ∑ 𝑢𝑢,𝑖
𝑛
𝑔×𝑧
𝑖=1
𝑝𝑎𝑡𝑚 × 𝑒 −𝑅×𝑇 𝑛
𝜌(𝑧) = 1 2
𝑅 × (𝑇 − 𝑅𝑎 × (𝑧 − 𝑧𝑟𝑒𝑓 )) 𝜎=√ × [∑(𝑢𝑢,𝑖 − 𝑢𝑢 ) ]
𝑛−1
𝑖=1
Another important factor that is frequently used in our
calculations is the upstream wind speed, 𝑢𝑢 . Using power The second method to estimate energy output is utilizing
law, it can be calculated from equation (6). the power curve of the turbine provided by the manufacturer.
𝛼 In this method, we used online digitizers to convert visual
𝑧 data into numerical values. Then, we interpolated the
𝑢𝑢 = 𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑓 × ( )
𝑧𝑟𝑒𝑓 obtained numerical values to get power output corresponding
to each hourly average wind speed value.
where 𝑢𝑟𝑒𝑓 is the measured wind speed at the reference For both methods, we multiplied the energy output from a
height. In our study hourly average wind speeds at a single turbine with the number of turbines to calculate the
reference height of 10 meters are obtained.𝛼 is the wind shear total energy output of the plant. By doing that we neglected
exponent. 𝛼 is a function of height, temperature, wind speed, the “wake effect”. This will be further discussed in the
terrain and time of the day and year. Several charts are discussion part.
available in the literature to estimate 𝛼. However, if the After estimating the energy output, we calculated some
specific data are not available, it is common practice to performance parameters. From equation (13) energy output
1 of a turbine is given by;
assume 𝛼 = 7 which is also assumed in our study.
The first method that we used to estimate the energy 𝑃𝑒 = 𝐶𝑝 × 𝜂𝑚 × 𝜂𝑔 × 𝑃𝑤 (13)
output of a single wind turbine is the piecewise equation
method. It involves approximating the power curve of wind where 𝑃𝑒 is the energy output of the turbine, 𝜂𝑚 is the
turbine using the Weibull distribution. The piecewise transmission efficiency, 𝜂𝑔 is the turbine efficiency and 𝑃𝑤 is
equation is given in the equation (7).
the power related to the kinetic energy of the wind. 𝑃𝑤 is
0, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑢𝑢 ≤ 𝑢𝑐 given in equation (14) as;
𝑎 + 𝑏 × 𝑢𝑢𝑘 , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑢𝑐 < 𝑢𝑢 ≤ 𝑢𝑅 1
𝑃𝑒 = (7)
𝑃𝑒,𝑅 , 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑢𝑅 < 𝑢𝑢 ≤ 𝑢𝐹 𝑃𝑤 = × 𝜌(𝑧) × 𝐴 × 𝑢𝑢3
2
{ 0, 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑢𝐹 < 𝑢𝑢

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Project Part 2 Page 2 of 5

where 𝐴 is the area swept by the blades of the turbine. It has a
circular shape therefore from equation (15);
𝜋 × 𝐷𝑟2
𝐴=
4
where 𝐷𝑟 is the rotor diameter.
In our study we assumed 𝜂𝑚 and 𝜂𝑔 to be 100%. Thus,
equation (13) reduces to equation (16);
𝑃𝑒
𝐶𝑝 =
𝑃𝑤
Note that maximum value of 𝐶𝑝 is 0,593 which is called
Betz limit named after German physicist Albert Betz. Its
proof is given by Ragheb [4].
Finally, capacity factor of the wind turbine, 𝐶𝐹, is
calculated in the discussion part. It is given in equation (17)
as;
𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛,𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑒
𝐶𝐹 =
𝑃𝑒,𝑅 × ∆𝑡
where ∆𝑡 is the time interval for which the capacity factor is
calculated and 𝐸𝑔𝑒𝑛,𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑏𝑖𝑛𝑒 is the actual energy generation
from the turbine for the time interval.
Also, AN Bonus 1000/54 model wind turbines were
chosen to be used in the power plant. During our studies, the
specific properties and specifications of this wind turbine
were taken into account such as rated power, cut-in wind
speed, rated wind speed, cut-out wind speed, rotor diameter
and hug height. The considered specifications of the solar
panel are given in Table 1.
certain value of wind speed which is the cut-in speed of the
selected wind turbine. This means that the wind turbine does
not operate or generate any power under wind speeds of
3m/s. Another observation is that the power output of the
wind turbine is constant at a rate of 1000 W after a certain
point of wind speed. The reason for this is that the rated
power of the selected wind turbine is 1000 W which is the
maximum capacity for power production. Finally, after 25
m/s of wind speed the power production cuts off completely
due to the cut-out speed of the wind turbine in order to
prevent damage to the components.
The main difference that needs to be discussed from
Figure 2 is that the power production curve in between the
wind speeds of 3 m/s and 15 m/s approximately. Both
methods provide a similar power output but there are some
visible differences in the trend. The piecewise method
provides a more linear power output with respect to wind
speed. On the other hand, with the power curve method, the
power output increases rapidly with respect to wind speed
until 8 m/s and then the increase in the power output is
decreased.
The primary cause of the aforementioned differences
between the two models stems from the fact that the
piecewise equation relies on an idealized assumption. This
assumption suggests that the turbine's energy output is solely
contingent upon the wind speed until it reaches the rated
wind speed. However, in reality, the energy output is affected
by structural conditions.
Contrary to piecewise method, power curve depends on
experimental results and does not include assumptions.
Therefore, it gives more reliable data.

Table 1. Wind turbine specifications [3].

Parameter Value Units
Rated Power 1000 kW
Cut-in wind speed 3 m/s
Rated wind speed 15 m/s
Cut-out wind speed 25 m/s
Rotor diameter 54.2 m
Hub height 60 m

3. Results and Discussion

In this part, results of our wind turbine power calculations
and analysis for the power generation of a wind turbine will
be discussed according to two different methods of
calculations. The results for these two different methods will
be analyzed, compared and the similarities or differences will
be discussed accordingly. These similarities or differences
will be supported by tables and plots regarding the resulting
calculation data of the methods respectively. These two
methods will be referred to as “piecewise method” (which
uses piecewise equation for the calculations) and “power
curve method” (which uses the power curve for the
calculations) from this point on for clarification and simpler
explanation.
Electrical power output of a single wind turbine as a
function of wind speed at a hub height of 60 m is plotted in
Figure 2. The dashed curve represents piecewise method and
the solid curve represents power curve method. As a first
observation, the power output continues as zero until a
Figure 2. Electrical power output of single AN Bonus 1000/54
model wind turbine as a function of wind speed at a hub height of 60
m with two different methods.
The power coefficient of the AN Bonus 1000/54 model
wind turbine is plotted on Figure 3 as a function of wind
speed. The power coefficient is plotted at the hub height of
60 meters by using two different methods, which are
piecewise equation and power curve taken from the producer.
Plotting the figure, color coding had to be used since the data
were so embedded to each other.
Looking at the Figure 3, we can simply see the power
coefficient is zero up to cut-in wind speed of 3 m/s. The
result was foreseen since the plant cannot produce any energy
below this speed. Further analyzing the figure, the power
coefficient obtained using the power curve does not exceed
the Betz limit, which is 0.593. However, looking at the data

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Project Part 2 Page 3 of 5
obtained from piecewise equation, it exceeds that limit. The
maximum power coefficient value is 76.4% in piecewise
method, whereas it is 51.2% in power curve method. This
result does not obey the theory. The reason is the power
output obtained from the piecewise equation is much higher
than those obtained from the power curve between the wind
speeds of 4 m/s and 7 m/s as can be seen from Figure 2.
Justifying those results, we can also see that, from the
beginning up to the intersection point on Figure 2, power
output of the data obtained from piecewise equation is higher.
This is also valid on Figure 3.
Although there are huge deviations between the wind
speeds of 4 m/s and 7 m/s for the two methods. The data
points are approximately close for other wind speeds.
Another remarkable result is that we can see on Figure 3 Figure 4. Monthly wind energy production using two methods and
that, there are multiple different power coefficient values at average wind speed for a single AN Bonus 1000/54 model wind
same wind speeds. The reason of that is, when calculating 𝑃𝑤 , turbine at the hub height of 60 m.
we also take into account the density. Therefore, since we
have different densities at the same speeds, we can end up We have discussed the terms such as energy production
with different power coefficient values for the same speeds. and power coefficient as a function of wind speed. We know
that these outcomes are also functions of the wind turbine
specifications like rated wind speed, cut-in wind speed, hub
height etc. In this section, we are going to discuss the effect
of hub height on energy production and the power
coefficient.
Considering the actual case, as we increase our altitude
the wind speed increases when air density decreases. Our
studies about energy production and power coefficient
changes are shown on Figure 5 and Figure 6. We obtained
those graphs by simply increasing the hub height value from
60 m to 120 m in our calculations. It can be observed that, in
Figure 5, the maximum power production became 450 MW,
whereas it was 400 MW in Figure 4. Looking at Figure 6,
knowing that power coefficient is a function of air density,
Figure 3. Power coefficient of a single AN Bonus 1000/54 model wind speed and energy production, the average power
wind turbine at the hub height of 60m as a function of wind speed coefficient calculated by piecewise equation does not
using two different methods. increase, it gives the same result of 31.71% in both hub
heights. However, the results obtained by power curve are
Figure 4 shows the monthly total wind energy production and different. The average power coefficient calculated by power
average wind speed for a single wind turbine model of AN curve decreased from 26.1% to 25.9%, for hub heights of
Bonus 1000/54 at the hub height of 60m, using both 60m to 120m relatively which is relatively small.
piecewise equation method and the power curve. Total
monthly energy production of the wind turbine plant differs
between the values of 40 MW and 400 MW, which is a
significant difference throughout the year. We can also see
that the average wind speed is between the values of 2 m/s
and 10 m/s throughout the year. We can say that at low
average wind speeds (lower than 3 m/s) the energy
production data obtained using piecewise equation is higher
than the data obtained using power curve. On the other hand,
it is the opposite at relatively higher average wind speeds
(higher than 3 m/s). This is an expected result. From Figure
2, at lower wind speeds piecewise method results in more
energy output estimation and at higher speeds power curve
method’s estimation is higher. Although the estimated energy
production for the two methods is close in March, April and
October, there are huge differences in June and August.
Again, this is the result of the deviations between the Figure 5. Monthly wind energy production using two methods and
estimated outputs as a function of wind speed, especially average wind speed for a single AN Bonus 1000/54 model wind
between 8 m/s and 14 m/s comparing the two methods from turbine at the hub height of 120 m.
Figure 2.

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Project Part 2 Page 4 of 5

Figure 6. Power coefficient of a single AN Bonus 1000/54 model
wind turbine at the hub height of 120 m as a function of wind speed
using two different methods.
We have analyzed the outcomes of a single wind turbine.
Still, there are numerous wind turbines in a designated area in
wind turbine power plants. In our calculations we directly
multiplied the energy output of a single turbine with the
number of wind turbines at the plant to estimate total energy
production. However, it is important to note that this
approach assumes that all the turbines are subject to laminar
flow, which is an idealized condition that does not account
for the real-life effects of wind farm dynamics. In wind
farms, wind turbines are affected by the turbulence created by
the neighboring turbines in the plant. Thus, their energy
output is reduced. This is called “wake effect” and it is
neglected in our study as mentioned in the theory part. In
order to get the optimum energy production, the siting of the
plant must be optimized.
The summary of the outcomes is tabulated on Table 2.
Looking at the Table 2, we can say that the corresponding
data are not so far away from each other. The energy
production obtained by two different methods deviates only
by 3.68%. The power coefficient obtained by two different
methods deviates by 17.76%. This relatively high deviation
can be explained by the deviation between the wind speeds of
4 m/s and 7 m/s from Figure 3. The capacity factor obtained
by two different methods deviates only by 3.68%.
Considering the results we can say that piecewise equation is
a good estimation comparing it with the actual data of the
power curve. In the end, since construction of a wind turbine
is not a cheap investment, it is best to get the power curve
from the manufacturer as it depends on experimental data and
does not include assumptions before further evaluation.
Table 2. The annual energy production, power coefficient, and
capacity factor.
Energy Power Capacity
Method Produced Coefficient Factor
(MWh) (%) (%)
Piecewise 2018.0365 31.70698 23.03694
Power Curve 2095.6112 26.07120 23.92250
4. Conclusion
The world is in an era, in which the carbon emission
must be reduced as soon as possible with various precautions.
Against that fact, renewable energy production systems play
a huge role with clean and cheap energy. In this report, we
analyzed the energy production of AN Bonus 1000/54 model
ME 496Spring 2023
Project Part 2
wind turbine at the hub height of 60 m. The given data was
taken from Hatay/Antakya. To calculate the energy
production, we applied two different methods. The first one
was, using piecewise equation; we approximated the power
curve of the selected wind turbine. In the second method we
directly used the power curve given by the manufacturer.
Completing the calculations, and comparing the results we
have seen that, the results were close to each other with slight
percentage differences.
As an unexpected result, we have seen that using
piecewise equation, the obtained power coefficient values
exceeded the Betz limit; on the other hand, using power curve
it did not. The maximum power coefficient value was 76.4%
in piecewise method, whereas it was 51.2% in power curve
method. Average power coefficients are 31.71% and 26.07%
for the piecewise method and power curve method
respectively. The low average power coefficients can be
primarily attributed to low average wind speeds.
We have also seen in Figure 4 that, the energy
production is directly proportional to the wind speed. To have
an idea how the hub height affects the power production and
power coefficient, we have plotted Figure 5andFigure 6. We
concluded that the power production and the power
coefficient are directly proportional to hub height. Then we
discussed the characteristics of wind turbine farms. Finally,
we have tabulated our main result on Table 2.
As mentioned in the discussion part, power curve
method gives more accurate results compared to piecewise
method. The reason for this is the piecewise method is based
on assumptions where real-life effects and structural
conditions are neglected whereas the power curve method is
based on experimental results of real-life conditions.
Therefore, it is suggested to utilize power curve method for
future studies.
To obtain better outcomes in future studies, a wind
turbine with lower rated speed can be used as the average
wind speed is much lower than the rated speed of the utilized
wind turbine. Also, a wind turbine with higher hub height can
be used as the energy production increases as can be seen
from Figure 5.
References
[1] H. Ritchie, M. Roser, and P. Rosado (2022). Energy
Production and Consumption[Online]. Available:
https://ourworldindata.org/energy
(Accessed May 20, 2023).
[2] Siemens Stiftung Media Portal for STEM Teaching
[Online]. Available:
https://medienportal.siemens-stiftung.org/en/wind-
turbine-inside-view-101588
(Accessed May 20, 2023).
[3] Wind Turbine ModelsAN Bonus 1000/54 [Online].
Available:
https://en.wind-turbine-models.com/turbines/396-an-
bonus-1000-54
(Accessed May 20, 2023).
[4] M. Ragheb, “Wind energy conversion coefficient”
[Online]. Available:
https://mragheb.com/NPRE%20475%20Wind%20Powe
r%20Systems/Wind%20Energy%20Conversion%20The
ory%20Betz%20Equation..pdf
May 26, 2023
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