Consequences of Climate Change A: Changes in Species and Communities

[NOTE: This is a slightly edited copy of the actual transcript of the lecture. Keep in mind that the lecture
was delivered without notes and therefore it is conversational in tone and therefore is not intended to
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Slide 1. In this section we will talk about the consequences of climate change for marine biodiversity.

Slide 2. Now there are many consequences for increased atmospheric carbon dioxide. This dramatically
changes the chemistry of the oceans. We'll talk about ocean acidification in the next section. But of
course, increased carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases cause the so-called greenhouse effect,
which is enhanced temperature retention in the atmosphere. This, of course, causes altered temperature
regimes. For the most part, there's an increased temperature across the globe. This is one of the reasons
why we call it global warming. But this temperature is not evenly distributed. The increased temperature
is not evenly distributed. What's more important is the fact that this increased temperature causes a lot
of extra energy in the atmosphere, and this can cause increased wind, stronger winds and more
importantly, more frequent and stronger storms. These differences in wind patterns also have a dramatic
effects on ocean circulation. Ocean circulation causes or influences very strongly a lot of the weather
patterns of the Earth. The ocean circulation event called ENSO, the El Nino Southern Oscillation.
Oscillation has a dramatic effect on the temperatures and weather in North America and South America,
e.g. ocean circulation also changes, e.g. when the El Nino event becomes warmer or cooler, this can
change many of the different ocean current patterns in the oceans as well. Particularly the storms and
other ocean and current changes can cause a lot of changes in the hydrodynamics of coastal and
estuarine systems. Altered temperatures, of course, also increase the loss of ice at the polar regions. This
causes an increase in relative sea level. This increased in relative sea level also has dramatic effects on
coastal and estuarine areas. The increased temperature also very dramatically influences species
distributions and also the physiological responses of individual species. And this is what we'll talk about
first.

Slide 3. So as biologists, we all know that temperatures are very important factor in how well species
survive, how they grow, and how well they reproduce. So all species have a certain optimal temperature
that they can live, survive, grow, and reproduce at. This optimal temperature is quite different
sometimes from the, the outlier temperatures. These so-called pessima, pessima is of course, the worst
case scenario in terms of a temperature. If it's too high or too low, then growth, survival and
reproduction is altered. And so many species stay in a much narrower zone than their fundamental
niche, which is their survival zone between the two pessima. But the realized niche where they're most
comfortable, where they're most abundant, is where they grow and reproduce the best. Now, all species
have a certain tolerance to variability in temperatures. If temperatures change, then they can either
acclimate, which is an individual being able to get use to an extreme temperature after a certain period
of time. Or they can adapt, which is an evolutionary process that occurs over many generations. So as
temperature changes, the tolerance can change in the short term by acclamation and in the long term by
adaptation. So physiological and behavioral adaptation can occur if a species has the genetic variation
that allows it to adapt over many generations, to a different temperature regime. So a species that might
have its optima in one temperature regime, some of the individuals in that population will be able to
tolerate quite nicely the extremes in that temperature. And then those are the ones that tend to survive
and thrive. And then they get to pass on their genes to the next generation. And, sometimes this
increases genetic variability so that a species can adapt over time to different temperature regimes.
Some species have better or worse capabilities in terms of their survival, growth, and reproduction, in
terms of their ability to either acclimate or adapt. Adaptation can be very, very uncertain and it's going
to be variable from one species to the next.

Slide 4. Another thing that is variable from one species to the next is its response to increased
temperature. Increased temperature will almost always change the metabolic rates of organisms. Of
course, most of the marine species are ectotherms. That is that they change their temperature
depending upon the external temperature, as opposed to endotherms. Of course, there are some
endotherms in the marine realm. Natural endotherms includes such things as whales and some species
of sharks and tuna. So marine mammals are endotherms, but the vast majority of marine organisms are
ectotherms. And so as temperature increases, their basal metabolic rate is going to increase. And for
ectotherms it's an exponential increase. What happens is, not all species are going to have the exact
same reaction to their metabolic rate depending upon an increased average temperature and climate
change. So one species might increase very rapidly in terms of its metabolic activity and another species
might increase more slowly in terms of its metabolic activity. One thing to keep in mind is that these
species interact. It's going to change a lot of things. But some species might have their demands for
resources increased dramatically because their metabolism increases dramatically. And other species
might not need as much resources, perhaps an increase resource need but just not as much. So because
of these different changes in metabolic rates, you're also going to have a change in the timing of life-
cycles quite often. So e.g. growth and survival will change with these different metabolic activities. And
the timing of these changes, the so-called phenology of life cycles, which is a timing of life cycles. The
phenology might change depending upon the species. Some species might have very little change with
increased temperature in terms of their optimum growth and survival periods, the time when they might
actually undergo growth and reproduction. Excuse me, growth and reproduction as opposed to survival.
Some species might have a different timing, an earlier timing of say, growth and reproduction depending
upon the temperature change. So you have different things happening to different species. Some might
have increased resource demands, some might have lower research resource demands. Because these
demands and the life cycles might change if when species interact, then their competitive fitness might
also change at different levels. These are different interactions, different metabolic rates, different
resource demands, different timing of life-cycles. The phonology will all influence how species interact
and how they might eventually end up with a realized niche, or if they end up with any niche at all. So
you have these asynchronous interactions that could cause shifting niches. And so this is going to be very
dramatic, it's going to depend ultimately on metabolism and life history, metabolic rates and life history
timing. And this is very much attuned to rising temperatures. So phytoplankton e.g. will increase their
metabolic rate 37% with just a two degree rise in temperature. So these temperature changes can
dramatically influence many different factors.

Slide 5. So what happens when you have different consumption at different times means you're going to
have trophic asynchrony and this can very much affect how other species crop other species. So strong
top-down effects where suspension and deposit feeders might change their activity rates and change the
amount of and the rates of feeding of these things. Herbivorous feeding on seaweeds, e.g. can increase
their cropping rates to the point where the seaweeds become almost nonexistence. Zooplankton can
feed on phytoplankton very rapidly changing the amounts of phytoplankton that make it down into the
benthos. And also to the amount of phytoplankton available to suspension and deposit feeders. Benthic
predators can feed very heavily on things like bivalves, which in turn are suspension feeders. And so
there's many different interactions that can occur. And when these interactions are changing, they're not
changing at the same time, you can have shifts in how many species act as predators or competitors, and
this of course, will change the food webs as well.

Slide 6. Predator prey interactions can change dramatically with changing temperatures, with changing
phenology. And there will always be a certain period at which a prey and a consumer would have the
best match in terms of their abundances. So a prey item might be abundant at a certain time. And the
consumer then, because of its normal life cycle, starts to become abundant right at the time when the
prey items are abundant, this is ideal for the consumer, so the timing of the abundance of its prey
matches exactly its life history strategy. This is a good match. But if you have a change in a metabolic rate
that might cause a prey item to become most abundant earlier than it normally does, this is going to
cause a mismatch with the consumer if it doesn't also alter its phenology. At the same rate, sometimes
prey items can change and their life-cycles where they were, they come too late. And the prey, of course,
are not going to be able to take advantage of the predators, are not going to be able to take advantage of
the prey at that time. Also, abundances can change with these different metabolic rates changing the
relative abundance even if the timing is good. Of course, nutrient availability is going to be influenced by
many factors. Some species might have very, very low quality in terms of their, say, lipid content or some
other nutrient capability. And this again will influence how their predators are able to respond in terms
of their abundance as well. So all of these things cause changes in trophic structure and it can also
change whether or not a species actually stays in a certain area, or whether or not it shifts its range. So
not only do you have ecology shifts, but some species are no longer going to stay in an area because it's
no longer optimal for their survival. This can cause changes in these so-called keystone species
depending upon all these other changes that are occurring. So changes in keystone species can cause a
dramatic effect on what sort of trophic makeup there is in a specific habitat. Keystone species are species
that have very strong impacts on the trophic structure of a certain community or ecosystem. So top
predators such as sharks, have an influence on many fish trophic structures. Top predators of a certain
type of zooplankton might have a dramatic effect on the phytoplankton community. There are many
keystone species that are these so-called habitat forming primary producers in the marine realm, of
course, these are things like kelps and corals and sea grasses. And so these sorts of changes in keystone
species can occur because of the influences of changes in phenology, changes in ecology and changes in
ranges.
Slide 7. Many species can adapt by simply changing the place that they normally live. They can change
thier response to temperature change by changing where they normally live. So adults that are vagile,
that can move around on their own, can simply migrate to other areas. But species like corals and other
sorts of benthic organisms that are sessile, they change where they're found because their larvae tend to
settle out in different areas that are more optimal. So there was a study done that looked at many, many
changes based on many studies. So Pinsky in 2020 published an article where they looked at all of the
different articles that dealt with latitudinal shifts of marine species and found that most of them change
their latitude. But there were also some species that because it was simply too warm in the upper part
of the ocean, just move to deeper water. So there's depth changes and also latitudinal changes that can
occur.

Slide 8. So if you look at the variety of different sorts of range shifts that can occur, you can see that of
course, as temperatures are getting warmer, that there tends to be a shift in where species are found
relative to the equator and relative to the poles. So e.g. where the American lobster is normally found.
Its normal range is right around the Chesapeake Bay Area, offshore as far north as Maine; that's it's
normal range, but with rising temperatures, what's happened is that the American lobster has shifted its
range northwards to up into parts of Canada, on the east coast of North America. Of course, this is very
pleasing, too many Canadian fishermen. But the point here is that the so-called equatorward edge, the
edge that is closest to the equator hasn't really changed. The American lobster maintains its presence in
the southernmost area of its range, but it's simply responded to temperature changes by increasing its
range northward. Another example would be the Humboldt squid. Of course, this is the Pacific Ocean.
Normally the Humboldt squid normal range straddles the equator, so it's found both north and south of
the equator. Because of increased temperatures, it's simply expanded its range both North and South. So
in both directions poleward, both North and South. So it's equator edges stayed the same, but it's
poleward edge has increased. And this is a deep-water species. So it's a species that might respond to
something like this, that is, poleward increases because it's normally found in deepwater around the
equator. If we look at the cushion star, with it's normal distribution is the Great Barrier Reef, the
northernmost distribution is towards the equator to the North in this case, as opposed to towards the
South in the Northern Hemisphere. And what it has done is changed it's poleward expansion quite
dramatically south of the Great Barrier Reef. It's no longer found in the northern part of the Great Barrier
Reef. So it's equator edge has changed as opposed to here where the equator edge hasn't changed. Here
the equator edge hasn't changed. But in this case, the equator edge has moved south, so it's moved into
its tracked into the cooler waters. So these are three different types of latitudinal shifts that can occur
with either poleward expansion and equatorial edge contraction or poleward expansion with no
equatorward edge contraction.

Slide 9. And when they looked at many different studies, they found that it was very consistent that
species moved poleward because of a response to increasing temperatures, but what happened at the
equator was not as consistent. Sometimes the equatorward edge didn't change at all and sometimes it
did change towards the warmer temperature increase. So what you would expect, of course, with this
consistent poleward expansion of ranges, is that species richness is starting to increase towards the pole.
Slide 10. There is one publication in 2018 that looked at introduced and invasive species in the Arctic
region towards the northern pole. We have Russia over here, Canada, over here, here's Greenland. This
is the normal Arctic area. And in these different sectors you have many species that were either
introduced and able to survive because of warming temperatures, or they just have natural range
extensions. And so the red dots are portions of a pie chart that are the proportion of individuals that
managed to survive in the northward area. So we have many that survive and persist, many that have
been introduced. It's not known whether or not they're going to be persistent or not in more northern
areas. So we have good examples of North Poleward expansion, at least in the Arctic.

Slide 11. Now, not only are ranges shifting poleward, but there was also a study at abundances within
species. They surveyed the different papers (literature) that we're monitoring abundances of different
species. And they found that abundances also tend to increase in the poleward part of the range of a
species. Abundances decrease in the Equator and increase towards the pole for most but not all, fishes,
zooplankton, invertebrates, and birds. So this is very consistent also. So not only do we have poleward
expansion of ranges, but also poleward expansion of abundances for many marine species.

Slide 12. Now, if you look at a summary of abundance and range shifts, there's many possible
adaptations here. You can have some species that move very easily, either the adults are vagile or the
larvae very easily move. And then you have some species that are able to adapt to changing
temperatures. Some species are able to adapt better than others. So if you have a species that doesn't
move very well and doesn't adapt very well, then it could become locally extinct. So if a species that
can't adapt only exists in one area, it could become an extinct species. So low movement possibilities,
low ability to adapt. You can end up with an extinct species or an extirpation (local population
extinction). Other species that are not able to move very far, but are able to persist, might simply exist,
but at much, much lower abundances. So this is a sort of a crash event as opposed to an extinction
event. They're still there, but in much lower numbers. Species that can move fairly well, but aren't able
to survive or adapt very well, might have a retraction of their normal range and they exist in fairly good
numbers but in a different part of their range. So they're normal range area is much smaller than it used
to be. Species that can move fairly well and survive fairly well, might keep their normal range, but simply
have an optimal area in a more poleward sort of a position. So they're leaning towards the pole in terms
of their optimum abundance. Other species that are not able to survive or that are able to survive and
adapt very well might expand their normal range beyond what their normal range is to involve the new
extremes and the temperature. Or a species that can't survive very well might simply adapt by marching
it's populations along with the direction of the change in temperature. So many different possibilities in
the marine realm in terms of both abundance and range shifts and all of these things are happening. And
of course, because all of these things are happening fairly rapidly you're having a lot of changes in
communities as well.
Slide 13. There are very good examples of community response to temperature change, and there are
many examples of this now in the literature, are the cases of the spiny lobster, the sea urchin and algae.
The normal algae that's found in a certain areais algae that grows on rocks. Now normally, the sea urchin
is found in the more northward areas of Australia, but it is not normally found anywhere around
Tasmania. At least in its native range and it's pre-temperature increase range. So if you look at Ninepin
point here, you see lobsters in a very healthy community living together in areas with lots of algae on the
rocks. These algae on the rocks are the native sort of habitat for spiny lobsters, they survive very well.
Sea urchins did not use to be in the Kent group in the northern part of Tasmania. This is a group of
islands here, but because of climate change, the sea urchins quite awhile ago expanded their distribution
to become very abundant in this part of northern Tasmania. And as a consequence, these sea urchins
have cropped away all of the algae. You have these so-called urchin barrens now, which are essentially
just instead lots and lots of algae, are lots and lots of urchins that are cropping down the algae. So the
algae is not at all anymore prevalent. So you have just barren rocks because all the algae that settles
there is eaten very quickly by the sea urchins. Because this is not an optimal habitat for the spiny
lobsters, The number of spiny lobsters have decreased dramatically in these areas. Now, the sea urchin is
just beginning to get established in Maria Island, which is south of the Northern part of Tasmania, and
close to the area where it's still not present. But here, the sea urchins are found in fairly low numbers.
The lobster and the algae are able to survive fairly well still here because the sea urchins are not in large
numbers. This is towards the lower limit in terms of temperature that these urchins are able to survive
well, so as temperatures increase then perhaps this part of Tasmania might eventually also develop
these so-called urchin barrens. The main point here is that shifting abundances of native species are
going to change how the normal sort of communities are structured.